les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-unis : défis et paradoxes
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Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis :
défis et paradoxes
Pierre-Olivier PineauProfesseur titulaire, HEC Montréal
CÉRIUM École d’été 2013Les États-Unis dans un tourbillon de crises : déclin ou adaptation ?
3744 Jean-Brillant salle 580-32Mercredi 10 juillet 2013 – 13h30 - 16h30
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 2
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MM
cf (m
illio
ns d
e pi
ed-c
ube)
Mill
ions
Mill
ers
de b
arils
par
jour
Thou
sand
s
Consomation de produits pétroliers
Production de pétrole
Consommation de gaz naturel
Production de gaz naturel
Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis1973-2012 (+importations pétrole 2012)
09/07/2013
Canada28%
Saudi Arabia13%
Mexico10%
Venezuela9%Russia
5%
Iraq4%
Nigeria4%
Colombia4%
Kuwait3%
Algeria2%
Other18%
EIA (2013)
Mill
ions
de
p3
1,3 mb/j
2,9 mb/j
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 3
Consommation d’énergie aux É-U (2011)
09/07/2013 EIA (2013)
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 4
Plan de la présentation
1. Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis2. Défis des changements climatiques3. Politiques environnementales
09/07/2013
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 5
Auto-suffisance énergétique
09/07/2013
IEA (2012)
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 6
Sources anticipées de réduction des importations de pétrole aux É-U
09/07/2013
IEA (2012)
7
Types de pétrole
Source: Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources Understanding Tight Oil
(Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage)In-situ/Mining«Schiste bitumineux»
«Pétrole de réservoirs étanches»
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Oil Shale / Schiste bitumineux
Oil shale (also known as kerogen shale)
… can be processed to obtain shale oil
Wikipedia & WEO (2010:168)
More than 3,500 billion barrels of oil shale resources originally in place throughout the world
(≈120 years of current consumption)
9
Major basins with potential tight oil developments
CSUR
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Unconventional Oil: Tight Oil
• “U.S. doubles oil estimate for Bakken field”, CBC News (May 2, 2013) http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/05/02/business-bakken-oil.html
• United States Geological Survey:– 3.6 bb of oil , technically recoverable (2008)– 7.4 billion barrels of oil (2013) (20 years of
production at 1 million b/d)– Since 2008, more than 4,000 wells drilled– 6.7 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically
recoverable natural gas
11
Increasing US Tight Oil Production
US EIA (2012)
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Tight oil & Gulf of Mexico deepwater drive projected increases in U.S. crude oil production
US EIA (2012)
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Bakken Export Capacity
US EIA (2013)
Rail is about 3 times more expansive / barrel
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Bakken Oil Price versus WTI
US EIA (2013)
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Western Canada Select (WCS) versus WTI & Maya
Alberta (2013)
$43 discount compared to Maya (a Mexican benchmark for heavy crude oil)
16
Keystone pipeline system
TransCanada (2013)
• 1,179-mile (1,897 km)
• 36-inch-diameter• 830,000 b/d• ≈$10/barrel vs.
$30 for rail
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 17
Capacité de transport versus production projetée de pétrole
09/07/2013CAPP (2013)
Pineau / HEC Montréal 18
US production of Shale Gas(2000-2013)
Billi
on c
ubic
feet
per
day
EIA (2013)
Pineau / HEC Montréal 19
Growth in total US gas productionTr
illio
n cu
bic
feet
(per
yea
r)
EIA (2013)
Pineau / HEC Montréal 20EIA (2013)
Average Shale Gas Well Production Rate
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Foreuses actives aux É-U
IEA (2012 )
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2. DÉFIS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 23
Industrie (-13%)28%
Transport (18%)27%
Résidentiel (20%)17%
Commercial (23%)18%
Agriculture (18%)
9%
Territoires US (72%)
1%
Émissions de GES aux É-U en 2011 par secteur économique, après répartition des émissions du
secteur électrique (changement depuis 1990)
09/07/2013EPA (2013)
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 24
Émissions de GES aux É-U en 2011
09/07/2013
Émissions totales en 20116,702 Millions de tonnes de CO2-equivalent
Protoxyde d’azoteOxyde nitreux Gaz fluorés
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 25
Sources d’émission de CO2, CH4 et N2O
09/07/2013
CO2CH4
N2O
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 2609/07/2013EPA (2013)
Émissions de GES par gaz aux É-U1990-2011
Million
27IEA (2012)
Risques environmentaux de la fracturation
hydraulique
28
Besoins en eau par unité de gaz naturel produit (m3 / terajoule)
IEA (2012)
29
The role of various substances in the hydraulic fracturing process
AGC (2012)
Friction reducers—Minimize friction in the well.Biocides—Eliminate bacteria that produce corrosive by-products.Solvents—Extract impurities from natural gas and are used for clearing and de-icing.Surfactants—Increase the viscosity of the fracturing fluid.Scale inhibitors—Prevent deposits from forming in the well and surface equipment.Acids—Dissolve minerals and initiate cracks in the rock formation.
30
Methane emissions along the gas value chain
1. Intentional venting of gas for safety or economic reasons. Venting during well completions falls into this category, but venting can also take place as part of equipment maintenance operations.
2. Fugitive emissions. These might be leaks in pipelines, valves or seals, whether accidental (e.g. corrosion in pipelines) or built into the equipment design (e.g. rotating seals, open tanks).
3. Incidents involving rupture of confining equipment (pipelines, pressurised tanks, well isolation).
4. Incomplete burning. The effectiveness of gas burning in gas flares varies according to wind and other conditions and is typically no better than 98%.
IEA (2012)
31
Upstream GHG Emissions from Shale Gas, by Life Cycle Stage
WRI (2013)
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A Simplified Life Cycle Process Map
WRI (2013)
33WRI (2013)
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Golden Rules 1• Measure, disclose and engage– Engage with local communities, residents and other
stakeholders into each phase of a development– Establish baselines for key environmental indicators– Measure and disclose operational data on water use on
methane and other air emissions.– Minimise disruption during operations, taking a broad view
of social and
IEA (2012)
35
Golden Rules 2• Watch where you drill– Choose well sites so as to minimise impacts– Properly survey the geology of the area– Monitor to ensure that hydraulic fractures do not extend
beyond the gas producing formations.• Isolate wells and prevent leaks– Put in place robust rules on well design, construction,
cementing and integrity testing.– Consider appropriate minimum-depth limitations– Take action to prevent and contain surface spills and leaks
from wells, and to ensure that any waste fluids and solids are disposed of properly.
IEA (2012)
36
Golden Rules 3• Treat water responsibly– Reduce freshwater use by improving operational
efficiency; reuse or recycle– Store and dispose of produced and waste water safely.– Minimise use of chemical additives
• Eliminate venting, minimise flaring and other emissions– Target zero venting and minimal flaring of natural gas
during well completion and seek to reduce fugitive and vented GHG emissions during
– Minimise air pollution from vehicles, drilling rig engines, pump engines and compressors.
IEA (2012)
37
Golden Rules 4• Be ready to think big– Seek opportunities for realising the economies of scale and
co-ordinated development– Take into account the cumulative and regional effects of
multiple drilling and production • Ensure a consistently high level of env. performance– Back output by sufficient permitting and compliance staff,
and reliable public information.– Appropriate balance in policy-making between prescriptive
regulation and performance-based regulation– Robust emergency response plans.– Continuous improvement of practices.– Independent evaluation and verification of env. perf.
IEA (2012)
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Qua
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Total Primary Energy Consumption1980-2008 (with growth for the period)
Canada 45%France 35%Sweden 7%Switzerland 16%Denmark -3%
World: +74% in Total Primary Energy ConsumptionPer capita:
World +15.5%Canada +7.2%France +16%Sweden -1.7%Switzerland -2.5%Denmark -9.5%
US EIA (2010)
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WorldUnited StatesGermanyCanadaDenmark
Consommation de pétrole mondialeMillion b/j (2000-2012)
US EIA (2013)
+14.1%
+13.7%
-13.3%
-3.8%
-23.7%
2000-2011
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3. POLITIQUES ENVIRONNEMENTALES
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 41
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
• Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules
• Biocarburant• Efficacité énergétique– Équipements électriques & ampoules– Bâtiment
09/07/2013
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 42
Waxman-Markey Bill (American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009)
• Système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émissions (similaire au EU ETS)
• Approuvée par la Chambre des représentants (26 juin 2009, 219-212) mais rejetée au Sénat
• Réduction de 17% des GES en 2020, par rapport à 2005 (et -42% en 2030)… engagement faits à Copenhague en 2009 au
sommet sur le climat
09/07/2013
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 43
Le plan d’action de Obama sur les changements climatiques (juin 2013)
• Réductions des émissions des centrales aux charbon (EPA – états)
• Accéler le développement des «énergies propres»
• Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules + biocarburants
• Efficacité énergétique
09/07/2013
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 4409/07/2013
Pierre-Olivier Pineau 45
Références• CAPP (2013) Crude Oil - Forecast, Markets &
Transportation, Calgary: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
09/07/2013
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