matthews j 20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_astier
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H Y D R A T I N G G L O B A L P O L I C Y ,
G R E E N I N G H A R D I N F R A S T R U C T U R E T H E C A T A L Y S I S O F W A T E R , A D A P T A T I O N & S U S T A I N A B L E
M A N A G E M E N T
J O H N H M A T T H E W S / K A R I N L E X É N / S O F I A W I D F O R S S P A R I S • O U R C O M M O N F U T U R E • 8 J U L Y 2 0 1 5
J O H O M A @ A L L I A N C E 4 W A T E R . O R G
A G W A
Global network of
technical and policy
specialists working on
long-term sustainable
water management —
water professionals to
water professionals
technical & policy specialists
economics & finance, engineering,
eco-hydrological science, governance
Alliance for Global Water Adaptation
E C O S Y S T E M S : C O N S I S T E N T L O S S
R E L A T I V E T O D E V E L O P M E N T
The biophysical landscape is critical for long-term
economic development and poverty alleviation
Traditional approaches to economic development and
infrastructure development often diminish or replace
existing biophysical functions
Assessment of biophysical functions are often too late
in the project cycle, too monetized, too narrow, often
stationary in approach
I S C L I M A T E C H A N G E A N
O P P O R T U N I T Y T O R E B A L A N C E ?
Widespread awareness that long-lived infrastructure is
highly vulnerable to climate impacts
An opening for new approaches to assess risk,
implement sequential decision-making processes to
encompass uncertainty
Must the developing world replicate our mistakes?
• | 1220 ft amsl
• | 1075 ft amsl
• | 1050 ft amsl
• | 1025 ft amsl
• | 1000 ft amsl
• | 895 ft amsl
• | 860 ft amsl
Credit: Bart Wickel
first shortage declaration
second shortage declaration
third shortage declaration
Intake 1 stops
all water delivery ceases
“dead pool”
Intake 2 stops
No electricity
Intake 3 — completed 2015?
2000
2015
2026–
2035
Hoover Dam, Lake Mead, USA, Water Level
1940s
• | 860 ft amsl
Content: deBuys 2012
New Risks = New Opportunities?
S H I F T I N G T O B O T T O M - U P R I S K
A S S E S S M E N T
top-down approaches to
risk assessment
1. Downscale climate
model projections
2. Estimate shifts in
water supply
3. Determine system
responses to
changes in these
variables
Weaver et al., 2012, WIREs
Climate Change
decision-scaling risk
assessment
1. Define your system’s
breaking points
2. Assemble multiple climate
data sources and link to
breaking points
3. Assess
plausibility
and test
vulnerability
Gambiri River, India
stakeholder-
defined
challenges
high-confidence
quantitative results
low-confidence
quantitative results
GCM-defined
challenges
Brown et al., 2012, Water
Resources Research
W H Y
D E C I S I O N
S C A L I N G ?
• front-loads the tradeoff process
• can interpret within a financial
framework but monetization is not
necessary
• flexible framework, amenable to a
wide range of metrics, standards
• rapidly increasing in adoption
(e.g., World Bank)
• robust even with high uncertainty
E C O - E N G I N E E R I N G D E C I S I O N
S C A L I N G
Cre
dit: T
ed G
ranth
am
, LeR
oy P
off, C
aitlin
Spence
Poff et al., Nature Climate Change, 2015
Palmer et al., Science, 2015
W H Y E C O -
E N G I N E E R I N G
D E C I S I O N S C A L I N G ?
• Avoids the trap of
monetizing ecosystem
services
• Places infrastructure and
ecosystems on the same
level
• Functions well with major
ecological rather than
species specific qualities
(e.g., connectivity,
disturbance regime, habitat
complexity)
S C A L I N G U P F R O M
T E C H N I C A L D E C I S I O N S
T O P O L I C Y
E N V I R O N M E N T S
• Climate change is water change – water resources management and climate adaptation policies and implementation must be integrated
• Water is critical for successful climate mitigation – water knowledge must be mainstreamed in mitigation measures
• UNFCCC bodies need to systematically address the role of water in both adaptation and mitigation
Can we hydrate the Paris COP?
T H E P O L I C Y C O N D U I T S F O R
W A T E R & C L I M A T E F O R C O P 2 1
• Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs)
• National Adaptation Plans
• Nairobi Work Programme
• REDD+ (Reducing Emissions
from Deforestation and forest
Degradation)
• Mechanism on Loss and Damage
• The Green Climate Fund
Minas Gerais, Brazil
Qinghai, China Koshi basin, Nepal
J O H O M A @ A L L I A N C E 4 W A T E R . O R G
A G W A G U I D E . O R G
A L L I A N C E 4 W A T E R . O R G
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