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Netanyahu, Obama and the Geopolitics of SpeechesGeopoliticalWeekly MARCH3,2015|08:49GMT Print TextSize

ByGeorgeFriedman

IsraeliPrimeMinisterBenjaminNetanyahuisvisitingtheUnitedStatesthisweektospeaktoCongressonMarch3.TheObamaadministrationisupsetthatSpeakeroftheHouseJohnBoehnerinvitedNetanyahuwithoutconsultingwiththeWhiteHouseandchargedBoehnerwithpoliticalgrandstanding.NetanyahusaidhewascomingtowarntheUnitedStatesofthethreatofIran.IsraelicriticsofNetanyahuchargedthatthiswasaplayforpublicapprovaltoimprovehispositioninIsrael'sgeneralelectionnextyear.Boehnerdeniedanypoliticalintent

beyondgettingtohearNetanyahu'sviews.TheObamaadministrationclaimedthatthespeechthreatensthefabricofU.S.Israelirelations.

Letusbeginwiththeobvious.First,thisisaspeech,anditisunlikelythatNetanyahucouldsayanythingnewonthesubjectofIran,giventhatheneverstopstalkingaboutit.Second,everyoneinvolvedisgrandstanding.Theyarepoliticians,andthat'swhattheydo.Third,theideathatU.S.Israelirelationscanbeshreddedbyagrandstandingspeechispreposterous.Ifthat'sallittakes,relationsarealreadyshredded.

Speechesaside,thereisnoquestionthatU.S.IsraelirelationshavebeenchangingsubstantiallysincetheendoftheColdWar,andthatchange,arrestedforawhileafter9/11,hascreateddistanceandtensionbetweenthecountries.Netanyahu'sspeechismerelyasymptomoftheunderlyingreality.Therearetheatrics,therearepersonalanimosities,butpresidentsandprimeministerscomeandgo.Whatisimportantaretheintereststhatbindorseparatenations,andtheinterestsofIsraelandtheUnitedStateshavetosomeextentdiverged.Itisthedivergenceofinterestswemustfocuson,particularlybecausethereisagreatdealofmythologyaroundtheU.S.Israelirelationshipcreatedbyadvocatesofacloserelationship,opponentsoftherelationship,andforeignenemiesofoneorbothcountries.

Building the U.S.-Israeli Relationship

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ItisimportanttobeginbyunderstandingthattheUnitedStatesandIsraeldidnotalwayshaveacloserelationship.WhiletheUnitedStatesrecognizedIsraelfromthebeginning,itsrelationshipwascooluntilaftertheSixDayWarin1967.WhenIsrael,alongwithBritainandFrance,invadedEgyptin1956,theUnitedStatesdemandedIsrael'swithdrawalfromSinaiandGaza,andtheIsraeliscomplied.TheUnitedStatesprovidednoaidforIsraelexceptforfoodaidgiventhroughaU.N.programthatservedmanynations.TheUnitedStateswasnothostiletoIsrael,nordiditregarditsrelationshipascrucial.

Thisbegantochangebeforethe1967conflict,afterproSovietcoupsinSyriaandIraqbyBaathistparties.Respondingtothisthreat,theUnitedStatescreatedabeltofsurfacetoairmissilesstretchingfromSaudiArabiatoJordanandIsraelin1965.ThiswasthefirstmilitaryaidgiventoIsrael,anditwasintendedtobepartofasystemtoblockSovietpower.Until1967,Israel'sweaponscameprimarilyfromFrance.Again,theUnitedStateshadnoobjectiontothisrelationship,norwasitacriticalissuetoWashington.

TheSixDayWarchangedthis.Aftertheconflict,theFrench,wantingtoimproverelationswiththeArabs,cutoffweaponssalestoIsrael.TheUnitedStatessawEgyptbecomeaSovietnavalandairbase,alongwithSyria.ThisthreatenedtheU.S.SixthFleetandotherinterestsintheeasternMediterranean.Inparticular,theUnitedStateswasconcernedaboutTurkeybecausetheBosporusinSoviethandswouldopenthedoortoasignificantSovietchallengeintheMediterraneanandSouthernEurope.TurkeywasnowthreatenednotonlyfromthenorthbutalsofromthesouthbySyriaandIraq.TheIranians,thenU.S.allies,forcedtheIraqistofaceeastratherthannorth.TheIsraelisforcedtheSyrianstofocussouth.OncetheFrenchpulledoutoftheirrelationshipwithIsraelandtheSovietsconsolidatedtheirpositionsinEgyptandSyriainthewakeoftheSixDayWar,theUnitedStateswasforcedintoadifferentrelationshipwithIsrael.

Ithasbeensaidthatthe1967warandlaterU.S.supportforIsraeltriggeredArabantiAmericanism.ItundoubtedlydeepenedantiAmericansentimentamongtheArabs,butitwasnotthetrigger.EgyptbecameproSovietin1956despitetheU.S.interventionagainstIsrael,whileSyriaandIraqbecameproSovietbeforetheUnitedStatesbegansendingmilitaryaidtoIsrael.Butafter1967,theUnitedStateslockedintoastrategicrelationshipwithIsraelandbecameitsprimarysourceofmilitaryassistance.Thissupportsurgedduringthe1973ArabIsraeliWar,withU.S.assistancerisingfromroughly5percentofIsraeligrossdomesticproducttomorethan20percentayearlater.

TheUnitedStateswasstrategicallydependentonIsraeltomaintainabalanceofpowerintheeasternMediterranean.Butevenduringthisperiod,theUnitedStateshadcompetingstrategicinterests.Forexample,aspartofencouragingastrategicreversalintotheU.S.campafterthe1973war,theUnitedStatesnegotiatedanIsraeliwithdrawalfromSinaithattheIsraeliswereextremelyreluctanttodobutcouldnotavoidunderU.S.pressure.Similarly,U.S.PresidentRonaldReaganopposedanIsraeliinvasionofLebanonthatreachedBeirut,andtheinitialU.S.interventioninLebanonwasnotagainstArabelementsbutintendedtoblockIsrael.TherewasastrategicdependenceonIsrael,butitwasneverasimplerelationship.

TheIsraelis'nationalsecurityrequirementshavealwaysoutstrippedtheirresources.Theyhadtohaveanoutsidepatron.FirstitwastheSovietsviaCzechoslovakia,thenFrance,thentheUnitedStates.TheycouldnotaffordtoalienatetheUnitedStatestheessentialfoundationoftheirnationalsecuritybutneithercouldtheysimplycomplywithAmericanwishes.FortheUnitedStates,Israelwasanimportantasset.Itwasfarfromtheonlyimportantasset.TheUnitedStateshadtoreconcileitssupportofIsraelwithitssupportofSaudiArabia,asanexample.IsraelandtheSaudiswerepartofanantiSovietcoalition,buttheyhadcompetinginterests,shownwhentheUnitedStatessoldairbornewarningandcontrolsystemstotheSaudis.TheIsraelisbothneededtheUnitedStatesandchafedunderthelimitationsWashingtonplacedonthem.

Post-Soviet Relations

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ThecollapseoftheSovietUniondestroyedthestrategicfoundationfortheU.S.Israelirelationship.Therewasnopressingreasontoendit,butitbegantoevolveanddiverge.ThefalloftheSovietUnionleftSyriaandIraqwithoutapatron.Egypt'sU.S.equippedarmy,separatedfromIsraelbyademilitarizedSinaiandtokenAmericanpeacekeepers,posednothreat.JordanwasakeyallyofIsrael.TheUnitedStatesbeganseeingtheMediterraneanandMiddleEastintotallydifferentways.Israel,forthefirsttimesinceitsfounding,didn'tfaceanydirectthreatofattack.Inaddition,Israel'seconomysurged,andU.S.aid,althoughitremainedsteady,becamefarlessimportanttoIsraelthanitwas.In2012,U.S.assistance($2.9billion)accountedforjustmorethan1percentofIsrael'sGDP.

Bothcountrieshadmoreroomtomaneuverthanthey'dhadpreviously.Theywerenolongerlockedintoarelationshipwitheachother,andtheirrelationshipcontinuedasmuchoutofhabitasoutofinterest.TheUnitedStateshadnointerestinIsraelcreatingsettlementsintheWestBank,butitwasn'tinterestedenoughinstoppingthemtoriskrupturingtherelationship.TheIsraeliswerenolongersodependentontheUnitedStatesthattheycouldn'triskitsdisapproval.

TheUnitedStatesandIsraeldrewtogetherinitiallyafter9/11.FromtheIsraeliperspective,theattacksprovedthattheUnitedStatesandIsraelhadacommoninterestagainsttheIslamicworld.TheU.S.responseevolvedintoamuchmorecomplexform,particularlyasitbecameapparentthatU.S.forcesinAfghanistanandIraqwerenotgoingtopacifyeithercountry.TheUnitedStatesneededastrategythatwouldpreventjihadistattacksonthehomeland,andthatmeantintelligencecooperationnotonlywiththeIsraelisbutalsowithIslamiccountrieshostiletoIsrael.Thiswastheoldproblem.IsraelwantedtheUnitedStatesfocusedonIsraelasitsmainpartner,buttheUnitedStateshadmuchwiderandmorecomplexrelationstodealwithintheregionthatrequiredamorenuancedapproach.

ThisistherootofthedivergenceonIran.FromIsrael'spointofview,theIraniansposeaninherentthreatregardlessofhowfaralongtheyareorarenotwiththeirnuclearprogram.IsraelwantstheUnitedStatesalignedagainstIran.Now,howcloseTehranistoanuclearweaponisanimportantquestion,buttoIsrael,howeversmallthenuclearrisk,itcannotbetoleratedbecauseIran'sideologymakesitanexistentialthreat.

The Iran Problem

FromtheAmericanperspective,themainquestionaboutIranis,assumingitisathreat,canitbedestroyedmilitarily?TheIraniansarenotfools.TheyobservedtheeasewithwhichtheIsraelisdestroyedtheIraqinuclearreactorin1981.Theyburiedtheirsdeepunderground.Itisthereforenotclear,regardlessofhowfaralongitisorwhatitspurposeis,thattheUnitedStatescoulddestroyIran'snuclearprogramfromtheair.Itwouldrequire,attheveryleast,specialoperationsontheground,andfailingthat,militaryactionbeyondU.S.capabilities.Asidefromtheuseofnuclearweapons,itisunclearthatanattackonmultiplehardenedsiteswouldwork.

TheIsraelisarequiteawareofthesedifficulties.Haditbeenpossibletoattack,andhadtheIsraelisbelievedwhattheyweresaying,theIsraeliswouldhaveattacked.Thedistancesaregreat,butthereareindicationsthatcountriesclosertoIranandalsointerestedindestroyingIran'snuclearprogramwouldhaveallowedtheuseoftheirterritories.YettheIsraelisdidnotattack.

TheAmericanpositionisthat,lackingaviablemilitaryoptionanduncertainastothestatusofIran'sprogram,theonlyoptionistoinduceIrantocurtailtheprogram.Simplymaintainingpermanentsanctionsdoesnotendwhateverprogramthereis.OnlyanagreementwithIrantradingtheprogramforanendofsanctionswouldwork.FromtheAmericanpointofview,thelackofamilitaryoptionrequiresanegotiation.TheIsraelipositionisthatIrancannotbetrusted.TheAmericanpositionisthatinthatcase,therearenooptions.

Behindthisisamuchdeeperissue.IsraelofcourseunderstandstheAmericanargument.Whatreally

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frightenstheIsraelisisanemergingAmericanstrategy.HavingfailedtopacifyAfghanistanorIraq,theUnitedStateshascometotheconclusionthatwarsofoccupationarebeyondAmericancapacity.ItispreparedtouseairpowerandverylimitedgroundforcesinIraq,forexample.However,theUnitedStatesdoesnotseeitselfashavingtheoptionofbringingdecisiveforcetobear.

An Intricate U.S. Strategy

Therefore,theUnitedStateshasadoublestrategyemerging.Thefirstlayeristokeepitsdistancefrommajorflareupsintheregion,providingsupportbutmakingclearitwillnotbetheonetotakeprimaryresponsibility.Asthesituationonthegrounddeteriorates,theUnitedStatesexpectstheseconflictstoeventuallycompelregionalpowerstotakeresponsibility.InthecaseofSyriaandIraq,forexample,thechaosisontheborderofTurkey.LetTurkeylivewithit,orletTurkeysenditsowntroopsin.Ifthathappens,theUnitedStateswilluselimitedforcetosupportthem.AsimilardynamicisplayingoutwithJordanandtheGulfCooperationCouncilstatesasSaudiArabiatriestoassumeresponsibilityforSunniArabinterestsinthefaceofaU.SIranianentente.Importantly,thisrapprochementwithIranisalreadyhappeningagainsttheIslamicState,whichisanenemyofboththeUnitedStatesandIran.Iamnotsurewewouldcallwhatishappeningcollaboration,butthereiscertainlyparallelplaybetweenIranandtheUnitedStates.

Thesecondlayerofthisstrategyiscreatingabalanceofpower.TheUnitedStateswantsregionalpowerstodealwithissuesthatthreatentheirinterestsmorethanAmericaninterests.Atthesametime,theUnitedStatesdoesnotwantanyonecountrytodominatetheregion.Therefore,itisintheAmericaninteresttohavemultiplepowersbalancingeachother.Therearefoursuchpowers:Turkey,Iran,SaudiArabiaandIsrael.Somecollaborate,somearehostile,andsomeshiftovertime.TheUnitedStateswantstogetridofIran'sweapons,butitdoesnotwanttoshatterthecountry.Itispartofapatternofregionalresponsibilityandbalance.

ThisistheheartofIsrael'sproblem.IthasalwaysbeenapawninU.S.strategy,butavitalpawn.Inthisemergingstrategy,withmultipleplayersbalancingeachotherandtheUnitedStatestakingtheminimumpossibleactiontomaintaintheequilibrium,Israelfindsitselfinacomplexrelationshipwiththreecountriesthatitcannotbesureofmanagingbyitself.ByincludingIraninthismix,theUnitedStatesincludeswhatIsraelregardsasanunpredictableelementnotsolelybecauseofthenuclearissuebutbecauseIran'sinfluencestretchestoSyriaandLebanonandimposescostsandthreatsIsraelwantstoavoid.

ThishasnothingtodowiththepersonalitiesofBarackObamaandBenjaminNetanyahu.TheUnitedStateshasshownitcannotpacifycountrieswithavailableforces.Thedefinitionofinsanityisdoingthesamethingrepeatedlyandexpectingadifferentoutcome.IftheUnitedStatesisnotinvolvedonthegroundinaconflict,thenitbecomesaproblemforregionalpowerstohandle.Iftheregionalpowerstaketherolestheymust,theyshouldbalanceagainsteachotherwithoutasingleregionalhegemonemerging.

IsraeldoesnotwanttobeconsideredbytheUnitedStatesasonepoweramongmany.ItisfocusedontheissueofanuclearIran,butitknowsthatthereisnocertaintythatIran'snuclearfacilitiescanbedestroyedorthatsanctionswillcausetheIranianstoabandonthenuclearprogram.WhatIsraelfearsisanententebetweentheUnitedStatesandIranandasystemofrelationsinwhichU.S.supportwillnotbeautomatic.

Soaspeechwillbemade.ObamaandNetanyahuaresupposedtodislikeeachother.Politiciansaregoingtobeelectedandjockeyforpower.Allofthisistrue,andnoneofitmatters.WhatdoesmatteristhattheUnitedStates,regardlessofwhoispresident,hastodevelopanewstrategyintheregion.ThisistheonlyoptionotherthantryingtooccupySyriaandIraq.Israel,regardlessofwhoisprimeminister,doesnotwanttobeleftaspartofthissystemwhiletheUnitedStatesmaintainstieswithalltheotherplayersalongwithIsrael.Israeldoesn'thavetheweighttoblockthisstrategy,andtheUnitedStateshasnoalternativebuttopursueit.

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Thisisn'taboutNetanyahuandObama,andbothknowit.ItisaboutthereconfigurationofaregiontheUnitedStatescannotsubdueandcannotleave.Itistheessenceofgreatpowerstrategy:creatingabalanceofpowerinwhichthebalancersaretrappedintoplayingaroletheydon'twant.Itisnotaperfectstrategy,butitistheonlyonetheUnitedStateshas.Israelisnotaloneinnotwantingthis.Turkey,IranandSaudiArabiadon'twantit,either.Butgeopoliticsisindifferenttowishes.Itunderstandsonlyimperativesandconstraints.

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Iranian Nuclear Game Timeline

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ARTICLE AUTHOR

George FriedmanGeorgeFriedmanistheChairmanofStratfor,acompanyhefoundedin1996thatisnowaleaderinthefieldofglobalintelligence.FriedmanguidesStratfor'sstrategicvisionandoverseesthedevelopmentandtrainingofthecompany'sintelligenceunit.

HisbookFlashpoints:TheEmergingCrisisinEuropewasreleasedonJan.27.

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