new 1.4 통계 자료를 이용한snuk+snu212.204.1k+2016+type@asset... · 2016. 11. 17. · 1....
Post on 19-Sep-2020
0 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
2) 야구통계: MLB 심판진의 인종편견
3) 실시간 선거개표: 2012년 한국 대통령 선거
1.4 통계 자료를 이용한 예시
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
2 Stages in Napoleon's invasion of Russia in 1812
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.book.tolstoy.htm
3
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
The armies of Napoleon Bonaparte concentrated where it is
http://mathiassimon1829.blogspot.kr/2013/03/simon-nas-americas.html
4
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
Mr. Yankey’s World History Class, Owasso Mid High School, 8800 N 129th East Ave, Owasso, OK 74055 http://www.owasso.k12.ok.us/webpages/gyankey/regadvhandouts.cfm?subpage=313703
5
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
Russian Winter(Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Winter
0
105500
211000
316500
422000
0 360 720 1080 1440 1800
y = survivors
x = Cumulative Kilomieters marched 6
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0 360 720 1080 1440 1800
y = ln(survivors)
x = Cumulative Kilomieters marched
7
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
Ln(y) = 13.181 - 0.0022x R² = 0.92
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0 360 720 1080 1440 1800
y = ln(survivors)
x = Cumulative Kilomieters marched
8
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
Ln(y) = 13.181 - 0.0022x
y = 530,330e-0.002x
0
105500
211000
316500
422000
0 360 720 1080 1440 1800
y = survivors
x = Cumulative Kilomieters marched 9
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0 360 720 1080 1440 1800
y = ln(survivors)
x = Cumulative Kilomieters marched 10
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0 360 720 1080 1440 1800
y = ln(survivors)
x = Cumulative Kilomieters marched
Linear spline regression of ln (y):
ln 𝑦 = 12.783 − 0.0012𝑥 − 0.0019(𝑥 − 900)+
𝑅2 = 0.98
11
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
12
ln 𝑦 = 12.783− 0.0012𝑥 −0.0019(𝑥 − 900)+
→ 𝑦 = 356,112exp(−0.0012𝑥 − 0.0019(𝑥 − 900)+)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
y = survivors
x = Cumulative Kilomieters marched
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
13
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
트렌턴 전투, 1975년 작, 찰스 맥배런
https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8A%B8%EB%A0%8C%ED%84%B4_%EC%A0%84%ED%88%AC
14
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
Retreat from Russia scene iii
https://napoleon1812.wordpress.com/
15
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
Napoleon In Russia 2
http://www.alamy.com/stock-photo/napoleon-russia-1812.html
16
1) Napoleon Army’s Russian Invasion in 1812
Defeat
http://www.nyrb.com/products/defeat?variant=1094929449
WAR AND PEACE
http://www.abebooks.co.uk/9781840225556/Peace-
Wordsworth-Classics-World-Literature-1840225556/plp
5. 야구 통계: Y. Puig 2013, LA Dodgers
The Explosive Start: June 3–July 2 (27 경기: 타율=.443, 출루율=.473)
*타율=H/AB, 출루율=(H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF) 17
출처 : ESPN, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/id/32574/yasiel-puig
5. 야구 통계: Y. Puig 2013, LA Dodgers
The Slump: July 3–July 22 (15 경기: 타율=.220, 출루율=.266)
18
출처 : ESPN, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/id/32574/yasiel-puig
5. 야구 통계: Y. Puig 2013, LA Dodgers
The Adjustments: July 23~Aug. 18 (21 경기: 타율=.377, 출루율=.490)
19
출처 : ESPN, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/id/32574/yasiel-puig
Discrimination in Baseball: MLB Umpires, Racial Bias and Calling Strikes
• C. Parsons, J. Sulaeman, M.Yates, and D. Hamermesh (2011), “Strike
Three: Discrimination, Incentives, and Evaluation,” American Economic
Review, 101, 1410–1435
• Monitoring:
1. QuesTec, a computerized monitoring system intended to evaluate the
accuracy and consistency of home-plate umpires’ judgments. From
2004–2008, QuesTec had been installed in 11 of MLB’s 30 ballparks
(see Fig 1 A, B)
2. Attendance (see Fig 2 A, B)
20
2) 야구통계: MLB 심판진의 인종편견
21
2) 야구통계: MLB 심판진의 인종편견
출처 : C. Parsons, J. Sulaeman, M.Yates, and D. Hamermesh(2011), “Strike Three:
Discrimination, Incentives, and Evaluation,” American Economic Review, 101, 1410–1435
22
2) 야구통계: MLB 심판진의 인종편견
출처 : C. Parsons, J. Sulaeman, M.Yates, and D. Hamermesh(2011), “Strike Three:
Discrimination, Incentives, and Evaluation,” American Economic Review, 101, 1410–1435
23
53.98% 51.88% 51.34%
8.21%
45.12% 47.29% 47.83%
6.18%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
조정 전 득표율 조정된 득표율 최종득표율 각 후보 우세지역 개표율
주요 후보 득표율
박근혜 후보(후보 1) 문재인 후보(후보 2)
3) 선거개표: 2012년 한국 대선 오후 7:50
24
301,242
591,171
46,352
121,760
356,542
243,764
91,917 216,381
886,460
198,823
7,502
47,357 7,678
564,647
796,727
751,859
199
후보1 우세
후보2 우세
95% 신뢰구간 오차범위: ±107662
3) 선거개표: 2012년 한국 대선 오후 7:50
전국: 893449
25
박근혜(후보 1)
문재인(후보 2)
열세
우세
3) 선거개표: 2012년 한국 대선 오후 7:50
top related