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Russias Peacetime Demographic Crisis:
Dimensions, Causes, Implications
Nicholas EberstadtHenry Wendt Chair In Political Economy
eberstadt@aei.org
American Enterprise Institute
Washington, DC
21 October 2010
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Here We Go AgainRussian Population, 1897-2009 (current boundaries, millions)
Source: 1897-2000: Dalkat Ediev, Application of the Demographic Potential Concept to Understanding the Russian Population Historyand Prospects: 1897-2100, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 2001, Figure 1. [spreadsheet]
2001-2009: Goskomstat/Rosstat, Total Population of Russian Federation, 1897-2009,http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo11.htm (accessed 19 October 2010).
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population(estimate
d),millions
http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo11.htmhttp://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo11.htm -
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-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Populat
ion
Births
Deaths
NaturalIncrease
3
Depopulation With Russian CharacteristicsBirths, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population:
Russian Federation, 1970-2009
Source: For 1970-2008: Demographic Yearbook of the Russian Federation [various editions] (State Committee of the Russian Federationon Statistics, Moscow) ; for 2009: Rosstat/Goskomstat, http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/vita1_bd.htm (accessedOctober 19, 2010).
http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/vita1_bd.htmhttp://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/vita1_bd.htm -
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Thoroughly EuropeanTotal Fertility Rates in Russia
vs. Selected Western Nations, 1950-2000
From Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich, Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian
Federation. RAND, 2001.
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DifficultBut Not ImpossibleLife Expectancy at Birth: Russian Federation, 1959-2008
Source: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley and Max Planck Institute for DemographicResearch. Available atwww.mortality.org
, Accessed June 7, 2010.
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
LifeExpectancyat
Birth(Years)
Female
Male
http://www.mortality.org/http://www.mortality.org/ -
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Bleeding RussiaExcess Mortality in the Russian Federation, 1992-2008
(In comparison with Russian Federation mortality schedules for 1986/87)
6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ExcessMortality(death
speryear)
Males
Females
Note: Excess mortality calculated for given calendar years against Russian Federation age-specific mortalityrates for 1986/87
Source: Derived from Human Mortality Database (http://mortality.org)
Excess male: 5.296 MillionExcess female: 1.750 MillionTotal excess mortality: 7.045 M
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500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Age-standardized
deathrate
(deathsper100000)
Russian Federation EU EU members before May 2004 EU members since 2004 or 2007
7
Wrong DirectionDeath rates from all causes, Russia vs. EU, 1970-2008 (total)
Source: Europe Health For All Database, World Health Organization, July 2008.Accessed 18 October 2010.
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0
200
400
600
800
6 8 10 12
8
More Bang Per BuckAge-standardized mortality rates from Cardiovascular Disease
vs. PPP-Adjusted Per Capita GDP for Russia and 174 Other Countries, 2002
Ag
e-standardizedmo
rtalityrate(deaths
per100000)
Russia
Log of Per Capita GDP PPP, 2002 ($)
Source: World Development Indicators 2008, World Bank; WHOSIS, World Health Organization
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Find The Outlier That Does Not BelongAge-standardized mortality rates from injury/external causes
vs. PPP-Adjusted Per Capita GDP for Russia and 174 Other Countries, 2002
y = -21.912Ln(x) + 267.69
R2
= 0.3052
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
100.00 1000.00 10000.00 100000.00
Per Capita GDP PPP, 2002 ($constant 2005)
AgeStandarizedMo
rtalityRate
(deathsper100000)
Source: World Development Indicators 2008, World Bank; WHOSIS, World Health Organization
Burundi
Liberia
Sierra LeoneAngola
Congo
Russia
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Its Not For Want Of SchoolingPercentage Share of People Aged 25-64 with Tertiary Educational Attainment:
OECD Countries (2001) vs. Russia (2002)
10
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Sources: Alan D. Lopez, Joshua Salomon, Omar Ahmad,Christopher JL. Murray, and Doris Mafat, Life Tables for 191Countries: Data, Methods and Results, GPE Discussion Paper
Series: No. 9. World Health Organization, 1999; LEs byeducation in Russia from: Michael Murphy, Martin Bobak,Amanda Nicholson, Richard Rose, and Michael Marmot, The
Widening Gap in Mortality by Educational Level in theRussian Federation, 19802001,American Journal of PublicHealth 96, no. 7 (July 2006): 12931299, Figure 2.
Educated, But Not Healthy
Estimated Female LifeExpectancy at age 20 in Russia
(2000 by educational level)
and the World (1999)
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
JapanFrance
MonacoSwitzerland
AustraliaSpain
AndorraNorway
ItalySanMarino
CanadaSwedenBelgium
LuxembourgNetherlands
MaltaFinlandGreece
SingaporeAustria
Russia-UniversityDominica
IcelandChile
BruneiDarussalamGermany
IsraelUnitedStates of America
UnitedKingdomPortugal
New ZealandCostaRica
SloveniaJamaica
ArgentinaCyprusMexico
UruguayYugoslavia
LithuaniaIreland
BarbadosArmenia
Czech RepublicDenmark
AntiguaandBarbudaPanama
CubaVenezuela
CroatiaGeorgia
GrenadaPoland
SlovakiaAzerbaijan
SaintVincentandGrenadinesRepublic of Korea
GuyanaBosniaandHerzegovina
BelizeDominicanRepublic
UnitedArab EmiratesParaguayAlbaniaKuwait
CapeVerdeSaintLucia
ColombiaBulgariaEstonia
SurinameTajikistan
QatarLatvia
ElSalvadorHungary
TFYRMacedoniaRussia-Intermediate
RussianFederationBahamasSriLanka
UkraineBelarus
RomaniaCookIslands
MauritiusBrazil
BahrainOmanTongaChina
TurkeyUzbekistanIndonesiaHonduras
KyrgyzstanSaudiArabia
Trinidadand TobagoNiue
MongoliaSaintKitts andNevisRepublic of Moldova
ThailandEcuador
Russia -Elementary EducationAlgeria
KazakhstanSamoa
Micronesia(Fed.States of)Philippines
PakistanPeru
NicaraguaSeychelles
MoroccoIran( Islamic Republic of)
EgyptTurkmenistan
MarshallIslan dsVietNamMalaysia
PalauFiji
TunisiaKiribatiBhutan
SaoTomeandPrincipeSyrianArabRepublic
MaldivesIndia
MyanmarJordan
LibyanArabJamahiriyaLebanon
BoliviaDem.Peoples's Rep.of Korea
TuvaluGuatemala
SolomonIslandsVanuatu
BangladeshIraq
GambiaMauritania
SenegalComoros
NepalLao People's Dem.Republic
Equatorial GuineaYemen
NigerBenin
CambodiaPapuaNew Guinea
AfghanistanGabonGhanaNauru
AngolaGuineaCongo
HaitiChad
SudanGuinea-Bissau
CameroonNigeria
MaliTogo
MadagascarLiberia
Dem.Rep.of theCongoBurkinaFasoCted'IvoireMozambique
SomaliaEritrea
UnitedRepublic of TanzaniaEthiopiaBurundi
SierraLeoneKenyaDjibouti
SouthAfricaCentralAfricanRepublic
LesothoSwaziland
RwandaUgandaMalawiNamibiaZambia
ZimbabweBotswana
Female Life Expectancy at age 20
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1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
USA Japan Germany United Kingdom
France Taiwan South Korea China
India Russia Brazil West Virginia
12Source: Patents By Country, State, and Year - All Patent Types (December 2008),http://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htm ; accessed February 26, 2010.
Patentable Knowledge: Neck and Neck With West VirginiaNumber of U.S. Patents Granted, 19952008: Russian Federation
vs. Selected Other Countries and Places
http://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htmhttp://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htmhttp://www.uspto.gov/go/stats/cst_all.htm -
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y = 3E-06x2.1294
R2 = 0.7319
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
$100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000
GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $), 2005
O
utofCountryPatentApplicationsper1million
TertiaryG
raduates
Russia
Switzerland
ChinaBrazil
India
USAJapan
Pakistan
Iran
Bahrain
Jordan
Finland
13
Sources: World Intellectual Property Organization, World Intellectual Property Indicators 2009, September2009, http://www.wipo.int/ipstats/en/statistics/patents/; World Development Indicators 2008 CD-ROM,World Bank.; and W. Lutz, A. Goujon, S.K.C., and W. Sanderson, Reconstruction of population by age, sex and
level of educational attainment of 120 countries for 2000-2030. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research,(2007).
Failing Grades In Knowledge ProductionNumber of Out of Country Patent Applications, 19952007 per
Million Tertiary Graduates vs. GDP per Capita PPP, 2005
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110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Po
pu
lation
(es
tima
tedand
pro
jec
ted--
thousan
ds)
UN-High variant UN-Medium variant UN-Low variant U.S. Census Bureau
14
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, February 26, 2010.Source: US Census Bureau International Database. Available online athttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, Accessed onFebruary 26, 2010.
Dwindling ConsensusEstimated and Projected Population of Russia, 2000-2030,
UN and U.S. Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html -
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Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database, available online at
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbacc.html; Accessed February 26, 2010.
Fewer Workers TomorrowAdult Population 15-64 by Age Group: Russia, 2005-2030
(estimated and projected, millions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Popu
lation
(millions
)
15-29 30-49 50-64
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-50.00%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
15- 19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35- 39 40- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65- 69 70- 74
Age Group
Population
Chan
ge
Western Europe
Russia
16
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/.Note: Definition of Western Europe from U.S. Census Bureau
Russias Manpower Outlook: Western Europe Has It EasyProjected Population Change For Adult Age Groups, 2005-2030:
Western Europe vs. Russia (percentage change)
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/ -
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Anyone Home?Russian Urban Population, 1990-2009 (estimated)
100000.00
101000.00
102000.00
103000.00
104000.00
105000.00
106000.00
107000.00
108000.00
109000.00
110000.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Population(th
ousands)
Year
State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) Internet Database,http://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgi, accessed on February 25, 2010.
http://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgihttp://www.gks.ru/scripts/db_inet/dbinet.cgi -
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Urban Life Expectancy in BRIC countries, most recent year availableMale Female Total
Russia (2006) 61.03 73.7 67.29
Moscow (2006) 67.17 76.5 71.81
St. Petersburg (2006) 62.84 74.83 68.9
China (2000) 73.11 77.51 75.21
Shanghai (2000) 77.49 81.19 79.36
Beijing (2000) 76.13 79.92 77.96
India (2002-06) 67.1 70 68.8
Chennai (2004) 77.15 77.56
New Delhi (2000) 69.5 69.5 69.5
Kolkata (2001) 74 75
Maharashtra (1998-02) 68.7 72 70.3
Mumbai (2007) 71
Brazil (2005) 68.35 75.93 72.05
So Paulo (1970) 58.5
Rio De Janeiro (1970) 57.1
So Paulo (2005) 69.49 78.03 73.66
Rio De Janeiro (2005) 68.08 77.02 72.44
Brasilia (2005) 71.19 78.74 74.87
Mexico (2004) 71.79 77.21 74.5
Nuevo Leon (2004) 72.69 77.79 75.24
Mexico City (2004) 72.81 78 74.58
Turkey (2002)
Istanbul (2002) 69 74.2 72.4
Indonesia (2002) 64.2 68.1 66.2
Jakarta (2002) 70.3 74.2 72.3
Egypt (2006) 68.98 73.6 71.3
Cairo (2006) 70.2 74.8 71.4
Sources:
Russia: Russian Demographic Yearbook, 2007, Goskomstat
China: China Human Development Report, 2005
India: Chennai - City Report of Chennai 2005; Kolkata - West BengalHuman Development Report 2004
Urban Maharashtra - Human Development: Strengthening District Level
Vital Statistics in India by F. Ram, Chander Shekhar and S.K Mohanty
India Total - ORGI, MHA, GOI (New Delhi), "Life expectancy at birth by sex
and residence, India 1970-75 to 2002-06"
Brazil: Indicadores Sociodemograficos, IBGE, 2006 (Note: 2006 Data is
total, not urban only)
Brazil 1970 Data (Note: Total LE, not divided by male/female): "Mortality,
Income Distribution, and Rural-Urban Residence in Brazil"
Jose Alberto M. de Carvalho and Charles H. Wood, Population and
Development Review, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Sep., 1978), pp. 405-420
Mexico: Conapo (2006a). Indicadores de mortalidad y fecundidad, 1990-
2006. Serie histrica basada en la conciliacin demogrfica a partir
del XII Censo General de Poblacin y Vivienda 2000 y el
II Conteo de Poblacin y Vivienda 2005. Note: Total Mexico not divided by
urban and rural
Indonesia: Human Development Report 2004
Turkey: Human Development Report 2004
Egypt: Human Development Report 2008
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Did You Say Soldiers?Males aged 15-24 in Russia, estimated and projected,
2000-2030, UNPD and U.S. Census Bureau
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Population,estimated
andprojected
(thousands)
US Census Bureau UN-High variant UN-Medium variant UN-Low variant
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, WorldPopulation Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp,February 26, 2010 and US Census Bureau International Database. Available online athttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html , Accessed on February 26, 2010.
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8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Thousands
Males
Females
At Least Therell Be Old FolksEstimated and Projected Population Structure:
Russian Federation, 2005 vs. 2030, UN Estimates
20
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of theUnited Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,
http://esa.un.org/unpp, February 26, 2010.
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Source: Timothy Heleniak, RegionalDistribution of the Muslim Population ofRussia, Eurasian Geography and Economics,2006, 47, No. 4, pp. 426-448, reproducedfrom Table 3
Come On, How Many
Muslims Really?
Traditionally MuslimEthnicities in Russia
(as enumerated in 1989
Census and 2002 Census)
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Source: Timothy Heleniak, Growth Poles and Ghost Towns in the Russian Far North, (paper presented at"Russia and the North" conference at Centre for Russia Studies Annual Conference, November 28-29,2007, Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, Oslo, Norway), Figure 1.
Go West (and South), Young Man!Net Migration in Russia, 19892002
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Russias Peacetime Demographic Crisis:
Dimensions, Causes, Implications
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