pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013
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Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping
Guilherme Motta@gfcmotta
gfcmotta at gmail
Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certaAntes de construir certo “a coisa”
@gfcmotta
Tive uma ideia genial!
Background do Alberto
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping
Alberto Savoia
PretotypeLabs+
• 1999-2001
Startup 1
• 3M USD Series A
• +18 meses depois..
• vendeu por $100M
Hey, this is easy!
• 2001-2002
Entrou na Google como Diretor de Eng
• ..., lançou AdWords, ...
Hey, I’m good!
• 2002-2008
Startup 2
• $25M Series A, B, C
• +5 anos depois..
• ~$0
WTF?
Porque o
fracasso?
2008-2012
Innovation AgitatorEngineering Diretor
Estudando fracasso de novos Produtos
A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias falham
...
Mais de 95% dos aplicativos mobile nao sao lucrativos
4 a cada 5 startups disperdicam o dinheiro dos investidores
As tecnologias mais inovadoras falham no mercado
...
Em um ano, 24.543 novos produtos*
Falharam 27%
Desapontaram 16%
Cancelados 37%
Sucesso 14%
“Espetaculares” 6%
Total 100%
* Nielsen
80%
Novos Produtos
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or categoryExtension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too” (exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
* Nielsen
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or categoryExtension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too” (exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
Novos Produtos
* Nielsen
Porque?
Porque?
Novos Produtos
* Nielsen
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or categoryExtension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too” (exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
Pouca disputa,
Pouca disputa,
Mas GRANDE resultado
Mas GRANDE resultado
A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias falham
MESMO QUE ELAS SEJAM MUITO BEM EXECUTADAS
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Iridium satellite phone system (66 satellites, $6B)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• “New Coke” ou “Crystal Pepsi” (est. $50M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Filme “John Carter” ($275M + $100M in marketing)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Google Wave (~$20-30M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Segway transporter (~$180M in funding)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Pontiac Aztek ($200M+)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Apple Newton (est. $50M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• CueCat USB barcode scanner ($180M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Microsoft Bob or “Clippy” (est. $50M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Ate mesmo com..
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com o Google..
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com a Microsoft..
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com inventores e VCs brilhantes
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com os melhores marketeiros do
mundo
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Com voce nao?
OUCH!
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
HIT or FLOP
F.L.O.P.Fracasso emLancamentoOperacional ouProposito
Pretotypingao Resgate!
Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certa
Antes de construir certo
“a coisa”
Pretotyping
Mas como que voce sabe se voce tem a “coisa” certa?
NAO PERGUNTE!
Literalmente.. Nao pergunte.
Ideias +Perguntas =PROBLEMA
IDEIAIDEIA
Opinião Opinião
Opinião Opinião
Opinião Opinião
Bem vindo aBem vindo a
Terra das Terra das IdeiasIdeias
asavoia@gmail.com Alberto Savoia www.pretotyping.org
VisaoVisaoIdeiasIdeiasOpinioesOpinioesPaixaoPaixao
RealidadeRealidadeArtefatosArtefatos
DadosDados RazaoRazao
Pretotyping
Terra das IdeiasOnde todas as ideias sao um sucesso!
Falso Po
sitivo
Terra das IdeiasOnde todas as ideias sao um fracasso!
Falso Ne
gativo
??????
Fuja da Terra das Ideias!
Opinioes -> Dados
Perguntas -> Acoes
Ideias -> Pretotypes
Mas o que e’pretotype?
O original Palm “Pre”
Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
$$$$$$$
“Nos amamos a ideia de traducao de fala para texto e nos estamos dispostos a pagar muito dinheiro se voce conseguir
construir bem feito”
Antes dos testescom pretotype
Porcentagem de
pessoas interessadas
Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
Pretendotype
Pretotype
X
“Veja bem..”
Antes dopretotype
Depois dopretotype
Fail Fast
Compulsividadepara continuar
minutos horas dias semanas
Tempo investido
meses anos
Pretotyping“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa
Prototyping• Investimento: dias, semanas• Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir?• Entregavel: prototipo funcional
Pretotyping• Investimento: horas, dias• Pergunta principal: Voce usaria?• Entregavel: pretotype “funcional”
Pretotyping“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa
Prototyping• Investimento: dias, semanas• Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir?• Entregavel: prototipo funcional
Pretotyping• Investimento: horas, dias• Pergunta principal: Voce usaria?• Entregavel: pretotype “funcional”
Como con
struir?
Como ser
a utiliz
ado?
•Prototipo de Papel
•Prototipo de Volume
•Encenacao
•Storyboard
•…
Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],
verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.
Exemplos de tecnicas
Pretotyping
The Fake DoorPretotypes
Pretotype Itwww.pretotypeitbook.comThe official book on pretotypingby Alberto Savoia. Only $20.00
Mechanical TurkPretotypes
PinocchioPretotypes
Pretotypes Personificador
Produto Produto Existente Existente
ou ou embalageembalage
mm
Nova “casca”Nova “casca”
One-Night StandPretotypes
PretoStorming
Brainstorming : Ideas -> Opinions
Pretostorming : Pretotypes -> Data
MVPPretotypes
MinimumViableProduct
Pretotypingin
Action
Mobile Apps
Android Pretotyping Kit 0.1The Birth of Android Pretotyping
SendSend
ParkJerk
AndrogenPretotyping Tool for Android
+ + =?
AndrogenPretotype working Android
apps in minutes
A
179.2179.2
SendSend
Enter your weight:
Pretotype It!Pawsbook: Social network for pets (B2C)
GhostBus: Self-driving city buses (B2B, B2Gov)
Offering free lunch and dinner to all employees (Internal)
UNuke: Small nuclear power stations for rural communities (B2Gov)
Vanity Fare: Food/drinks enriched with ingredients for great skin and hair (B2B)
HappyGlass: Windows that convert/create light spectrum to fight SAD (Seasonal Affective
Disorders) (B2B or B2C)
GoldHound: A luxury version of GreyHound with first-class seating and treatment (B2B)
InstaNap: The opposite of energy drinks like RedBull or 5hr Energy (B2B)
SpeedInterviewing: Like speed-dating but for candidate interviews (Internal)
2nd-day Sushi: Less-fresh but lower-cost sushi (B2C)
Rent-a-mechanic: Rent an expert for used car shopping and negotiating (B2C)
Self-funded extended warranty: Automatically saves in a your fund from each purchase (B2C)
EatSlow plates: Food plates that open and close to slow down your eating (B2C)
Biodegradable holiday lights: Lights that take themselves down after the holidays (B2C)
TakeMySpot: Mobile app/service to auction the parking spot you are about to vacate (B2C, B2Gov)
OopsMail: a corporate email filter that automatically detects & re-routs inappropriate emails
(B2C, Internal)
Fake-a-Mate: Rent a pretend great boy/girlfriend for social events (B2C)
ReviewsNow: a mobile app for on-the-spot/real-time employee micro-reviews and feedback
(Internal)
MeetGrinder: a smart corporate calendar that (re)arranges meetings to maximize meeting-free
time (B2B, Internal)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Quer saber mais?
gfcmotta@gmail.com
PDF Gratis e na AmazonQuer em Portugues? Ajude a traduzir!
Livros Videos
Twitter: @gfcmotta
asavoia@gmail.com Twitter: @Pretotyping
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
PretoMetrics
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],
verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
An Intro toPretotyping Metrics
RPI: Return on Pretotyping Investment
ILI/OLI: Initial/Ongoing Level of Interest
PretoBayesian Metrics: How to factor in the impact of pretotyping data in decision making
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPIReturn on
PretotypingInvestment
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)X
RPI
How much (%) can you learn from a given pretotype compared to the full product.
How much (%) can you learn from a prototype or final product. Set to 100% for the final product.
How much would it cost (time or $) to develop and test/market a prototype or the final product.
How much would it cost (time or $) to create and test a given pretotype.
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPI for a WebvanPretotype
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
What should we learn?(before we blow $100M)
Will people use the web to order groceries?
What % of people would use it?
How often would they use it?
Will people in cities use it more than people in suburbs?
What kind of products will they buy?
What’s the $ value of average transaction?
How many will continue to use it after the novelty has worn off?
...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotype for
Pretotype 1: MVP
Create a high-quality website.
Advertise locally in a major city (e.g., San Francisco) and a suburb (e.g., Palo Alto.)
If/when orders come in, purchase food at existing stores.
Rent delivery trucks and hire temporary personnel to deliver food.
Run experiment for, say, 4 weeks.
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)X
$ RPI for
.75 $100M
1.00 $1M
RPI = .75 x 100 = 75 = 7500% cheaper
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPI vs RIP
We shouldaWe shouldapretotyped pretotyped
it!it!Yup.Yup.
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Time RPI for
.50 60 mos
.80 1 mos
RPI = .62 x 60 = 37.5x “faster learning”
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)X
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI/OLILevel of Interest
(If we build, will they come?)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI
Initial Level of Interest:
What % of a target group is interested in ‘it’ to give it a try?
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI
ILI = ________________________________
# invited to try ‘it’
# who’ve actually tried ‘it’
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Small representativesample (~100-
1,000)
I (1000)
Time
T (741)
ILI in Action
Target market
ILI = 741/1,000 = .741
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
OLI
Ongoing Level of Interest:
What % of a target group continues to use/buy ‘it’ after they’ve tried it.
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
OLI(t)
OLI(t) = __________________________________________
# who tried ‘it’
# still using ‘it’ after time t
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Time
I (people invited to try innovation)
T (people who actually try it)
R4 (...4 weeks)R2 (...2 weeks)
R1 (return/retained users after 1 week)
ILI: Initial Level of Interest
OLI: Ongoing Level of Interest
OLI in Action
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