prof. dr. wang yiwei （王义桅） director of institute of international affairs renmin...

Prof. Dr. WANG Yiwei（王义桅）

Director of Institute of International Affairs

Renmin University of China

Senior Fellow of RDCY

yiweiwang@ruc.edu.cn

OBOR and the Revival of Civilizations

1

EN

1. Why Silk Road?2. Why China?3. Why Now?4. Why Good for the World?

Content

How It was Like

And Full of Problems

16 世纪欧洲现代化崛起古丝绸之路消逝

Transport and logistic routes for trading and cultural exchanges

between East and West.

http://www.gettyimages.com/

UNESCO, UNDP, Japan, US, Iran, Russia, Khazakstan, ROK…

Many tried to re-establish the concept, with different contents and for different ends

In the past 30 Years

Lost, but Never Forgotten

Planned to Be This

BUT EVER SO GREAT IS OBOR LATE 2013

BUT WHAT IS IT?

Interconnectivity: of transportation in the air, on land and

sea, oil and gas pipelines, and telecommunications

For 65 countries and regions A giant economy of 4.4 billion on a

planet of some 7 billion

One Belt

Traditional Industry Belt

Yangtze River

Second Eurasian Land Bridge

One Road

One Belt

One RoadYangtz

e River

RussiaMongolia

Russia

ROKDPRKJapan

Asia-Pacific

ASEANSouth Asia, Indochina

Russia, Central Asia, Europe

Second Eurasian Land Bridge

Traditional Industry Belt

16

国际合作复兴丝绸之路，建设欧亚大市场

中国东北振兴

战略与俄罗

斯东西伯利亚

和远东开发

战略对接

中巴经济走廊

中缅印孟经济走廊

TRACECA

南北交通走廊

跨欧亚发展带

北方海航线

美国新丝绸之路

区域全面合作关系 RCEP

Provinces, Municipalities, and Autonomous Regions in the Belt

Region Role Hub

Xinjiang

(Autonomous Region)

Core of the Belt Urumqi, Kashgar

Gansu

(Province)

Gold area of the Belt Lanzhou, Baiyin, Jiuquan

Ningxia

(Autonomous Region)

Underpinning Ningxia

Yunnan

(Province)

Position of Strength, Hub of the Channels

Guangxi(Province)

Portal to SE Asia

Shaanxi

(Province)

Underpinning Xi' an

Qinghai

(Province)

Major theater for westward opening Xining, Haidong, Golmud

Sichuan

(Province)

Transportation Nexus and Economic Hinterland

Chongqing

(Special Municipality)

Transportation centre in upper Yangtze River, thus an inland highlight Chongqing

Provinces, Municipalities, and Autonomous Regions on the Road

Region Role Hub

Fujian Core Area Fuzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Pingtan

Guangdong Bridgehead Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Huizhou

Jiangsu Intersection of the Road Xuzhou, Lianyungang

Zhejiang Pioneer of economic and trade cooperation,

Pilot of Internet Silk Road, Nexus for trade

and logistics

Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou

Hainan Gateway and strategic support of the Road Haikou, Sanya

CoverageRegion Country/Region Numbers

Central Asia Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan,

7

South East Asia

Indonesia, Cambodia, East Timor, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar

11

South Asia Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka

8

Central and East Europe

Poland, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia

16

West Asia and North Africa

Iran, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Yemen Republic

16

CIS and others

Belorussia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia

6

And What We Do?

One Concept: OBOR, as One is where all Universe Starts

Two Underpinning: Belt and RoadThree Principles: Shared interest+Shared

Responsibility=Shared DestinyFour Keys: Connectivity in capacity, strategy,

industry, for Third-Party Markets.Five Sectors: Policy, Facilities, Trade, Financing,

People-to-peopleSix Ways: Six Economic Corridors of New Eurasian

Land Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina, China-Pakistan, and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar

What Connectivity is Interconnectivity?

policy coordinationInfrastructureunimpeded tradefinancial integration people-to-people bonds

New Eurasian Continental BridgeJiangsu and Shandong Coast

to

Kazakhstan

Russia

Belorussia

to

Mediterranean

Chinese Cities

Lianyungang, Qingdao, Rizhao, Xuzhou, Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Xi`an, Lanzhou, Urumqi

Resources Abroad

Caspian BasinSouth Turgai Oil and Gas FieldTurgai Depression Iron Mine,Chu-Sarisu River Uranium Mine

Dev-Zones in China

 Khorgos Dev-Zone ， Astana Dev-Zone in Kazakhstan

China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor

Chinese Cities

Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin

Resources Abroad

West Siberian Oil and Gas Fields, Mongolian Gobi Coal and Copper Mine, Choibalsan Uranium-Lead-Zinc Mine, Metallogenic Zones in Russian Far-East

Dev-ZonesIn China

Manzhouli, Erenhot, Suifenhe(Dongning),Yanji(Changbai) Key Pilot Dev-Zone

From Tianjin and Dalian to the Baltic

through

Erenhot, Manzhouli Suifenhe

Mongolia, Russia

China-Central Asia- West AsiaUrumqi

Kazakhstan

Kyrzhyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Iran, Turkey

Persian Gulf

Mediterranean

Arabian Peninsula

Chinese Cities

Xining, Yinchuan, Kashgar, Urumqi

Resources Abroad

Oil and Gas in Karakum, Fergana, Caspian Sea, North Ustyurt, Azadegan, Yadavaran, Pars, Metal Ore in Tianshan and Chu-Iliyskiy, Rich Sylvate in East Turkmenistan

Dev-Zones in China

Kashgar, Erenhot, Suifenhe(Dongning), Yanji(Changbai) Key Pilot Dev-Zone,

Dev-ZonesAbroad

Almaty IT Tech Zone ， Free Economic Zone in  Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Special Zones in Uzbekistan, Pengsheng Industrial Park

China-Indochina

Kunming and Nanning

to

Singapore

via

Laos, Vietnam

Cambodia, Thailand

Malaysia

Chinese Cities

Kunming, Nanning, Guiyang, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen

Resources Abroad

Oil and Gas in Malay basin, Thailand, Non-Ferrous Metal in Northern Vietnam Fault Block and Alumina Belt in Cambodia

Dev-Zones in China

Key Dev-and-Opening Zones in Dongxing/Piangxiang of Guangxi and Mengla of Yunnan, Sino-Singapore Guangzhou Knowledge City, China-Malaysia Qinzhou Industrial Park

Dev-ZonesAbroad

Dev-Zone in Laos, Sino-Malaysia Kuantan Industrial Park, Indonesia-China Industrial Park, Jurong Industrial Park

China-Pakistan

Kashgar

To

Gwadar Port

Through

Khunjerab Pass

and

Islamabad

Chinese Cities

Xining, Yinchuan, Urumqi, Kashgar

Dev-Zones in Pakistan

Export Processing Zones in:Karachi （ Sindh ）， RisalpurSialkot （ Punjab ） Gujranwala （ Punjab ）Special Economic Zone in:Khairpur （ Sindh ）

Maritime Silk Road

Linking

Meeting

Meshing

Fusing

Completing

Supporting

Route I Ports on China Coast(Fujian) to South China Sea, Malacca, Indian Ocean, to Europe

Route II Ports on China Coast to South China Sea, Indonesia, and South Pacific

Route III Arctic Ocean in Long Run

Strategic Stations

Sihanoukville JakartaBitung SingaporeKyaukpyu GwadarKuantan ChittagongSalalah SonadiaHambantotaColomboAdenSaid

Why China?

Ancient Silk Road

29

Extending to South Pacific

30

CHINA STRENGTH IN OBOR

I. China Model 2. Four Trillion USD foreign reverse

3. Tech 4. Culture

THE MONEY, WHERE FROM?

Loans from World Bank, Asian Development Bank and alike

Silk Road Fund.Ltd ， 40 billion USD and Growing since 2014

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank A Public-Private Partnership like European Investment Bank

What Risks?

Economic Political Security Legal Moral

Economic Short Term: Conflicting Monetary Policies

across the World Long Term: Shifting Global Economic

Structure Now: Investment, Financing, Taxtation Sovereign Debt, Local Debt, Weak

Services, Lack of Awareness Will it degenerate into a simple spending

spree by China, as some kind of global Ministry o Finance

Political

Internal Geopolitical What will current Global System

become? Reactions?

Security

US and NATO confronting a reviving Russia

Syria, Iran, Rise of ISIS and general terrorism, and possible manipulation of terrorism by states

Maritime Disputes Color Revolutions

Legal

Future of WTO facing new arrangements

Insufficient Legal Frame along OBOR Obstacles in Existing Legal Systems:

Laws too open for interpreation Projects and Protest

Moral

State Level: Unfamiliar China---How Much do People Know but Pandas?

Business Level: Bad Behavior---modernization in a world of Postmodern ethics

Interpersonal: There are still bad people around

By inclusiveness: Mesh with Existing Cooperation Against No One By Involvement: of Local Stakeholders and People By Sharing: Localization of Whole Industrial

Chain and Services, bringing benefits where we are

Have Risks, Will Prevent

Common Interest: in Politics, Economy, Culture through

working together Common Responsibility: from shared concerns and combined efforts

for OBOR governance Common Destiny: Overcome challenges together, over the

Risks is common Prosperity

A Shared Trinity

BTW, About those “China Something”…China Model?China Experience?China Dream?

China Model：What Is It? Why Share?

Infrastracture+EducationHelps the 900 million people without

electrical power reach UN Millennium Development Goals and Move On

The Master said, "Now the man of perfect virtue, wishing to be established himself, seeks also to establish others; wishing to be enlarged himself, he seeks also to enlarge others. To be able to judge of others by what is nigh in ourselves - this may be called the art of virtue."

China ExperienceGradual Reform and Opening Upintergration of Market in China and BeyondInterconnectivity

China DreamPeace, Peace, PeaceInclusiveness, Inclusiveness, InclusivenessProsperity. Prosperity, Prosperity

Like we in China said, important things should be said Thrice

IT`S JUST…WHY NOW?

TIME TO BRING MAXIMUM PROSPERITY FROM NOT ONLY CHINA,

BUT THE WORLD

FOR THE WORLD

GROWING IMPORTANCE OF SILK ROAD REGIONS IN GLOBAL ECONOMY

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT DEMAND IN COMING YEARSESTIMATED: 6.6 BILLION USD 2015 TO 2020 14.3 BILLION USD 2015 TO 2025

China`s trade with OBOR topped 1 trillion USD in 2013, after a decade of 19% average growth, and is still growing fast.

And the OBOR mission…

Seeking Way for Global Prosperity in Post-Crisis Era

As the new engine of global economic growth, China brings its advantages in productivity, technology, funding, experience, and development into package and offer.

The Belt and Road Initiative is the result of this and China’s new phase of all-around opening-up.

Global RebalanceTraditional globalization starts from the

sea. Coastal regions and maritime states develop first, while inland countries fall behind, forming a massive wealth gap.

From Partial globalization to Inclusive globalization

With Global Shipping Like This

And Nocturnal World This

We Need a New Model for Regional Cooperation for the 21st Century

Economic Belt is an innovation in regional cooperation.

A new Eurasian Land BridgeChina-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central

Asia-West Asia and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors work as growth nexus to bring good to surrounding areas.

Why Good for the World?

Case on Europe

58

Europe's Second Chance to Shape the World

Now Europe could once again be the centre of this world with all Eurasian continent if she want. This geopolitical World Island could reshape Global Geopolitics and the entire Globalization with its own Integration.

59

  China's “One Belt One Road” offers eight great opportunities for Europe as follows:

Firstly, One Belt and One Road (OBOR) can connect with Juncker-Plan and stimulate European economic growth through mutual-connectivity and extending European single market to Eurasian Big Market.

60

Secondly, it is an opportunity to build a greater Eurasian market and to revive European civilization;

Thirdly, it is an opportunity for Europe’s regional integration: "Eastern partnership" and "Mediterranean partnership“?

Fourthly, the opportunity to push forward EU-China comprehensive strategic partnership.

61

Fifthly, it is an opportunity for EU-Russian reconciliation

Sixthly, it is an opportunity for the EU to access to Asia-Pacific Affairs.

Seventhly, it is an opportunity for the EU to enhance its global influence.

Eighthly, it is an opportunity to balance the development of the trans-Atlantic relationship.

62

According to Bloomberg analysis, OBOR will bring 3 billion middle class in 2050.

In the coming decade, OBOR will create 2.5 trillion USD trade along the 65 countries including European countries under 16+1 framework.

63

One Belt One Road Initiate Promotes 16+1 Cooperation

Chin-Europe “partnership of peace, partnership of growth, partnership of reform, and partnership of civilization”, maritime cooperation is the new grip.

64

building a new Asia-Europe maritime-land combined transport passage, relying on Belgrade-Budapest Railway and Greece’s Piraeus Port.

65

Case Study: five ways for the UK to join OBOR

First, strategies Synergy. The UK Northern England Revitalization Plan with the initiative.

Second, connectivity in five aspects. RMBThird, development of third-party markets.Fourth, international capacity cooperation.Fifth, joint development of the Maritime

Silk Road.

66

Conclusion

E=MC²E: EuropeM: Mutual ConnectivityC²: China multiplies Eurasian Continent

67

VISION AND ACTIONS ON JOINTLY BUILDING SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT AND 21ST-CENTURY MARITIME SILK ROAD

March 28, 2015 http://www.mfa.gov.cn/mfa_chn/zyxw_602

251/t1249574.shtml

For More:

敬请期待

王义桅：《世界是通的：一带一路的逻辑》，

商务印书馆， 2016年 1月版。

殖民先鋒：葡萄牙 無敵艦隊：西班牙 海洋霸權：荷蘭

日不落國：英國 歐陸強權：法國 鐵血帝國：德國

巨人伊凡：俄羅斯 太陽東昇：日本 世界警察：美國

China Provides!