quarto evento dell'11/06/2009

Eugenio Quaini

Introduzione al Futuro

CUBE srl – FER Fully Elastic RingPaolo Ferrazzi Inventor

Scompenso cardiaco

•Anello equatoriale•Anello mitralico•Industrializzazione•Certificazione•Sperimentazione animale•Studio umano di fase 1

CUBE srl – FER Mitral Elastic RingPaolo Ferrazzi Inventor

CUBE srl – FER Mitral Elastic RingPaolo Ferrazzi Inventor

Cardioscopy

Faxitron: high resolution x-ray

πάντα ῥεῖ Eraclito

Poets and the Future

"Tutti dovremmo preoccuparci del futuro, perché là dobbiamo passare il resto

della nostra vita."

Charles Franklin Kettering (1876-1958)Inventor and businessman

Co-Founder of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center

We understand better than ever that planning is like standing on a beach.

A wave approaches.

Dig in your heels? Swim into it? Run?

Thinking• Dangers and difficulties of looking to

the future

• Why bother then?

• How best to think about the future?

• What is foresight?

• What does the future mean for now?

1. The Disciplined Mind

2. The Synthesizing Mind

3. The Creating Mind

4. The Respectful Mind

5. The Ethical Mind

The a priori – a posteriori distinction

• a priori knowledge– Before taking into account observations or

evidence– Necessary/analytic truths, assumptions, given

facts, etc.

• a posteriori knowledge– After taking into account observations and

evidence– Laws and explanations of natural or social

phenomena

Rationalism• Knowledge arises from reasoning

• The way to knowledge is from the general to the particular

• Requires general a priori, necessary truths

• Characterised by deduction

Descartes “Cogito ergo sum”

Empiricism• Knowledge arises from observation

• The way to knowledge is from the particular to the general

• Requires a posteriori, contingent truths

• Characterised by induction

Galileo “All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered;

the point is to discover them”

Popper’s Falsificationism• Induction never proves anything• Hypotheses can only be disproved by

observing a counter-example• If there is constant innovation of hypotheses

and attempts to disprove them then knowledge will progress

Karl Popper “Hypotheses that are not amenable to being falsified (unfalsifiable

hypotheses) are dubious”

William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1890-95

• "Radio has no future"

• "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible"

• "X rays will prove to be a hoax”

Dangers of predicting the future

Dangers of predicting the future

“I never make predictions, especially about the future.”

Sam Goldwyn,

MGM founder

Looking to the future: common mistakes

• Making predictions rather than attaching probabilities to possibilities

• Simply extrapolating current trends

• Thinking of only one future

• By 2029, a computer will be able to carry on a conversation indistinguishable from a human’s.

• In the 2040’s people spend the majority of their time in full immersion virtual reality.

• The point when your life expectancy rises at a rate faster than which you age.

Ray Kurzweil

“Immortality first!

Everything else can wait.”

Corwyn Prater

Futurists

• Eliminating a specific list comprising 50% of medically preventable conditions, would extend human life expectancy to over 150 years.

• By preventing 90% of medical problems, life expectancy could extend to over 500 years.

• At 99% solved, we’d be able to live for over 1000 years.

Robert A. Freitas Jr. Senior Research Fellownonprofit foundation (IMM)Palo Alto California

Futurists

Biotechnology and nanotechnology revolutions will eliminate virtually all medical causes of death

METHODS

Nanotechnology Cryogenics

Mind Uploading

Cyborg Citizens

Body part replacement

The life extension ethics question:

Should technologies that

radically extend the human lifespan

be allowed to be employed?

Approach the future

The point is not to predict the future but to prepare for it and to shape it

SHAPING A BETTER FUTURE

Easy to say, hard to accomplish

What is BETTER?

BIGGER? FASTER? MORE?

Knowing is not enough; we must apply

Willing is not enough; we must do

Goethe

Contradictions of the 21th Century

• Extreme specialization• Science keeps us alive• Information overload• Lip service to science

• Complex knowledge• Low science budget • Weak understanding• Dramatic decrease of enrolment in science

BUT

The health care problem

• Between the health care we have and the care we could have lies not just a gap, but a chasm

• A system full of underuse, inappropriate use, and overuse of care

• Unable to deliver today’s science and technology

The key is to think and ACT strategically.

Planning is not about writing a plan.

Planning is about results.

To be strategic is to invest your resources, make a bet (time, energy, money, creativity) where your choice can produce the best results.

A wide field. A few chips.

Goals are at the heart of any strategic plan.Goals are the most important part of any strategic plan.

Non guardar fissa l'ondache si frange al tuo piede; fino a

quandosarà immerso nell'acquaonde nuove verranno.

B. Brecht