recent progress on high impact weather forecast with goes‐r and advanced ir soundings

Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings

Jun Li1, Jinlong Li1, Jing Zheng1, Tim Schmit2, and Hui Liu3

1 University of Wisconsin-Madison2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA

3 National Center for Atmospheric Research

Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop08 – 09 Feb 2012, Norman, OK

Outline• Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor

measurements for high impact weather (HIW) forecasting through data assimilation;– MODIS TPW, AMSR-E TPW, and GOES Sounder PW as proxy– WRF/DART, WRF/3DVAR

• Improve high impact weather forecasts with advanced IR soundings;

• Verify impact with in-situ measurements, hurricane track and intensity observations, GOES Imager, and microwave measurements;

• 2012 plan – value added impact on HIW forecasts with advanced IR soundings when combining GOES-R and polar sounders.

Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Sinlaku PathSinlaku rapid intensification (9 – 10 September 2008) observed

1. Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather forecasting through data assimilation

Terra TPW

Aqua TPW

AMSR-E TPW

Terra MODIS (upper left), Aqua MODIS (lower left) and AMSR-E (upper right) TPW images over ocean for 10 September 2008. The spatial resolution is 5 km for MODIS TPW and 17 km for AMSR-E TPW.

CTLAMSR-E TPWMODIS TPWObs

GOES-R LAP algorithm improves operational MODIS TPW product; the new MODIS TPW with GOES-R algorithm will be used in 2012 HIW studies

MYD07GOES-R Alg.

GOES Sounder

GOES-R ABI

GOES Sounder (left) and GOES-R ABI (right) water vapor weighting functions

GOES RegGOES Phy

9

GOES (W11+E13), +/- 5min

06:00

05:30

06:30

05:55

06:05

n = 10112=9207(E13)+905(W11)

Hourly Precipitation Forecasts in Early Stage

2012/5/10 01 Z ~ 2012/5/10 12 Z

Forecast with Conventional data

OBS Forecast with GOES Sounder

Hourly precipitation forecast from 00 Z – 12 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

Cumulative precipitation forecast from 00Z to 06 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

ObservationForecast withGOES Sounder

Forecast withConventional

AIRS (10 August 2009) CrIS (20 January 2012) global coverage

(provided by Dave Tobin – CIMSS/SSEC)

2. Improve high impact weather with advanced IR soundings

(K)

(K)

AIRS 500 hPa atmospheric temperatures in clear skies (06 September 2008) for hurricane Ike

OBSCTLAIRS-TQHurricane at 2008090606

CTLAIRS-TQ

CTL: radiosondes, satellite winds, pilot report, GPS, ship, profiler, surface observations AIRS-TQ: CTL + AIRS-TQ

AIRS soundings provide value-added information to conventional observations(Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike - 2008)

AIRS single FOV soundings in clear skies are used. WRF/3DVAR (12 km resolution) forecasting and assimilation system is used. Assimilation is done every 6 hours. 0-h is from analysis, others are forecasts (06 UTC 06 September 2008 – 00 UTC 10 September 2008).

72-hour ensemble forecasts – Hurricane Irene (2011) (from 06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)

CTLAIRSObs

Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolutionControl (CTL): assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data;AIRS: CTL + AIRS temperature and moisture soundings

Irene (2011) track forecasts Irene (2011) sea level pressure forecasts

Central sea level pressure forecast RMSE - Hurricane Irene (2011)(06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)

CTL run: assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data.AIRS run: CTL + AIRS soundings

CTLAIRS

Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution

AMSR-E TPW(090716 - 090719) TPW forecast (090718) with GTS

TPW forecasts with GTS and AIRS

(mm) (mm)

(mm)TPW forecast RMSE using collocated AMSR-E as reference ((06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September))

No AIRSWith AIRS

3. Verify impact – using AMSR-E TWP

Impact of sounding bias correction on

TC forecasts

Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike (2008) (06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September)

AIRS no BCAIRS with BC

4. Summary and 2012 plans• GOES Sounder, MODIS, AMSR-E TPW as proxy for GOES-R

shows positive impact on HIW forecasts;• Advanced IR soundings provide positive impact on tropical cyclone

intensity and track analysis/forecasts;• WRF/DART and WRF/3DVAR provide consistent results;• 2012 plans on HIW studies

– Use GSI to emulate operational environment; focus on using GOES Sounder for preparing GOES-R applications;

– Study value added impact with advanced IR soundings (radiances or retrievals) on HIW forecasts when combining GOES-R and polar-orbiting sounders;

– Continue collaboration with ESRL RAP modeling group;– Collaborate with JPSS sounding team (Chris Barnet) on using AIRS/CrIS

(including AMSU and ATMS).