rmv mxli valor de producción generado por las empresas a enero 2014

INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO DE LA CONSTRUCCIÓN, Programa de Maestría en Administración de la Construcción, Mexicali Baja California ----> ANÁLISIS DE LAS DECISIONESRuta temática Construcción (encuesta mensual)> Valor de producción generado por las empresas de la entidad> En términos reales> Por sector institucional> Total de las obras como contratista principal > Baja California

Periodicidad MensualUnidad de medida Miles de pesos (a precios de junio de 2012).

Fuente INEGI. Encuesta Nacional de Empresas Constructoras.Cifras preliminares 2012/01

Fecha inicial 2013/11

Fecha final2006/01

Última actualización2014/01/31

mes Periodo Dato Percentil Dato ObservaciónPronóstico

DatoResiduos

1 2006/01 1,084,306.99$ 0.526315789 679186.3005 1 1041378 42929.14 Resumen2 2006/02 1,228,814.53$ 1.578947368 683000.103 2 1042159 186655.4

3 2006/03 1,312,498.76$ 2.631578947 697393.8194 3 1042940 269558.4 Estadísticas de la regresión4 2006/04 1,132,535.91$ 3.684210526 703939.4637 4 1043722 88814.32 Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.075732115

5 2006/05 1,320,599.78$ 4.736842105 718297.2777 5 1044503 276096.9 Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.005735353

6 2006/06 1,358,917.23$ 5.789473684 732362.53 6 1045284 313633.1 R^2 ajustado -0.004955664

7 2006/07 1,129,267.74$ 6.842105263 732509.2335 7 1046065 83202.41 Error típico 285094.1814

8 2006/08 1,116,776.17$ 7.894736842 744779.5463 8 1046847 69929.59 Observaciones 95

9 2006/09 1,369,877.38$ 8.947368421 759046.5497 9 1047628 322249.6

10 2006/10 1,325,534.41$ 10 760503.8059 10 1048409 277125.3 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA

112006/11

1,432,466.60$ 11.05263158 776426.6764 11 1049190 383276.3

Grados de

libertad

Suma de

cuadrados

Promedio de

los cuadrados F

Valor crítico de

F

12 2006/12 1,208,118.61$ 12.10526316 779593.4808 12 1049972 158147 Regresión 1 43603147046 43603147046 0.536464673 0.465743531

13 2007/01 938,266.12$ 13.15789474 789472.4624 13 1050753 -112487 Residuos 93 7.55892E+12 81278692278

14 2007/02 1,093,808.51$ 14.21052632 791696.9779 14 1051534 42274.46 Total 94 7.60252E+12

15 2007/03 1,089,765.18$ 15.26315789 797687.2776 15 1052315 37449.88

16 2007/04 1,172,816.00$ 16.31578947 799259.9078 16 1053097 119719.4 Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

17 2007/05 1,481,429.24$ 17.36842105 800195.9934 17 1053878 427551.4 Intercepción 1040596.603 58965.00039 17.64769941 1.93907E-31 923503.798 1157689.407 923503.798 1157689.407

18 2007/06 1,274,728.62$ 18.42105263 804999.7263 18 1054659 220069.6 mes 781.2466981 1066.639422 0.732437487 0.465743531 -1336.887802 2899.381198 -1336.887802 2899.381198

19 2007/07 1,219,288.71$ 19.47368421 805532.4218 19 1055440 163848.4

20 2007/08 1,215,711.22$ 20.52631579 813264.1311 20 1056222 159489.7

21 2007/09 1,340,029.85$ 21.57894737 814990.5601 21 1057003 283027.1

22 2007/10 1,286,572.60$ 22.63157895 824430.6152 22 1057784 228788.6

23 2007/11 1,412,049.30$ 23.68421053 825382.6849 23 1058565 353484

24 2007/12 1,292,594.76$ 24.73684211 830975.0167 24 1059347 233248.2

25 2008/01 905,726.85$ 25.78947368 831963.162 25 1060128 -154401

26 2008/02 957,080.16$ 26.84210526 835342.7758 26 1060909 -103829

27 2008/03 933,054.73$ 27.89473684 845713.3581 27 1061690 -128636

28 2008/04 1,062,766.61$ 28.94736842 859660.7942 28 1062472 295.1047

29 2008/05 1,007,759.04$ 30 867960.8269 29 1063253 -55493.7

30 2008/06 1,494,201.86$ 31.05263158 878464.2657 30 1064034 430167.9

31 2008/07 1,263,297.86$ 32.10526316 880540.9886 31 1064815 198482.6

32 2008/08 1,024,359.99$ 33.15789474 896158.5929 32 1065596 -41236.5

33 2008/09 779,593.48$ 34.21052632 896762.5842 33 1066378 -286784

34 2008/10 791,696.98$ 35.26315789 903807.6468 34 1067159 -275462

35 2008/11 825,382.68$ 36.31578947 905726.8473 35 1067940 -242558

36 2008/12 943,137.52$ 37.36842105 917840.2536 36 1068721 -125584

37 2009/01 683,000.10$ 38.42105263 933054.7282 37 1069503 -386503

38 2009/02 776,426.68$ 39.47368421 938266.1172 38 1070284 -293857

39 2009/03 804,999.73$ 40.52631579 943137.5218 39 1071065 -266065

40 2009/04 835,342.78$ 41.57894737 954379.896 40 1071846 -236504

41 2009/05 732,362.53$ 42.63157895 957080.1617 41 1072628 -340265

42 2009/06 1,010,854.18$ 43.68421053 961976.7872 42 1073409 -62554.8

43 2009/07 880,540.99$ 44.73684211 982029.6339 43 1074190 -193649

44 2009/08 703,939.46$ 45.78947368 1007759.039 44 1074971 -371032

45 2009/09 824,430.62$ 46.84210526 1010854.179 45 1075753 -251322

46 2009/10 845,713.36$ 47.89473684 1011927.661 46 1076534 -230821

47 2009/11 1,011,927.66$ 48.94736842 1024359.986 47 1077315 -65387.5

48 2009/12 1,192,721.79$ 50 1027474.266 48 1078096 114625.3

49 2010/01 797,687.28$ 51.05263158 1043017 49 1078878 -281190

50 2010/02 917,840.25$ 52.10526316 1044097.734 50 1079659 -161819

51 2010/03 961,976.79$ 53.15789474 1048063.404 51 1080440 -118463

52 2010/04 1,044,097.73$ 54.21052632 1059423.995 52 1081221 -37123.7

53 2010/05 867,960.83$ 55.26315789 1062766.615 53 1082003 -214042

54 2010/06 1,059,423.99$ 56.31578947 1084306.988 54 1082784 -23359.9

55 2010/07 697,393.82$ 57.36842105 1089765.185 55 1083565 -386171

56 2010/08 760,503.81$ 58.42105263 1093808.513 56 1084346 -323843

57 2010/09 903,807.65$ 59.47368421 1103591.746 57 1085128 -181320

58 2010/10 744,779.55$ 60.52631579 1109208.547 58 1085909 -341129

59 2010/11 813,264.13$ 61.57894737 1116776.169 59 1086690 -273426

60 2010/12 896,158.59$ 62.63157895 1129267.739 60 1087471 -191313

Análisis de los

residuales

Resultados de datos

de probabilidad

-600000

-400000

-200000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Res

idu

os

mes

mes Gráfico de los residuales

Línea RECTA:

y = 9497.7x + 603213 R² = 0.9392

Línea EXPONENCIAL:

y = 674735e0.0087x R² = 0.9845

$550,000

$750,000

$950,000

$1,150,000

$1,350,000

$1,550,000

$1,750,000

$1,950,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Val

or

de

Pro

du

cció

n g

en

era

da

po

r la

s e

mp

resa

s "C

ON

STR

UC

TOR

AS"

Muestra percentil

Gráfico de Probabilidad "Normal"

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 1

61 2011/01 789,472.46$ 63.68421053 1132535.913 61 1088253 -298780

62 2011/02 830,975.02$ 64.73684211 1159267.144 62 1089034 -258059

63 2011/03 814,990.56$ 65.78947368 1172815.998 63 1089815 -274825

64 2011/04 732,509.23$ 66.84210526 1192721.793 64 1090596 -358087

65 2011/05 831,963.16$ 67.89473684 1208118.608 65 1091378 -259414

66 2011/06 982,029.63$ 68.94736842 1215711.225 66 1092159 -110129

67 2011/07 805,532.42$ 70 1216618.479 67 1092940 -287408

68 2011/08 679,186.30$ 71.05263158 1219288.714 68 1093721 -414535

69 2011/09 859,660.79$ 72.10526316 1228814.528 69 1094503 -234842

70 2011/10 800,195.99$ 73.15789474 1263297.858 70 1095284 -295088

71 2011/11 1,048,063.40$ 74.21052632 1274728.623 71 1096065 -48001.7

72 2011/12 759,046.55$ 75.26315789 1286572.598 72 1096846 -337800

73 2012/01 718,297.28$ 76.31578947 1292594.756 73 1097628 -379330

74 2012/02 799,259.91$ 77.36842105 1312498.761 74 1098409 -299149

75 2012/03 896,762.58$ 78.42105263 1320599.782 75 1099190 -202428

76 2012/04 878,464.27$ 79.47368421 1325534.413 76 1099971 -221507

77 2012/05 1,027,474.27$ 80.52631579 1340029.848 77 1100753 -73278.3

78 2012/06 1,043,017.00$ 81.57894737 1346055.948 78 1101534 -58516.8

79 2012/07 1,103,591.75$ 82.63157895 1358917.229 79 1102315 1276.655

80 2012/08 954,379.90$ 83.68421053 1369877.38 80 1103096 -148716

81 2012/09 1,159,267.14$ 84.73684211 1412049.302 81 1103878 55389.56

82 2012/10 1,109,208.55$ 85.78947368 1412931.159 82 1104659 4549.715

83 2012/11 1,535,325.13$ 86.84210526 1432466.596 83 1105440 429885

84 2012/12 1,412,931.16$ 87.89473684 1459736.128 84 1106221 306709.8

85 2013/01 1,216,618.48$ 88.94736842 1475847.319 85 1107003 109615.9

86 2013/02 1,346,055.95$ 90 1481429.239 86 1107784 238272.1

87 2013/03 1,528,167.94$ 91.05263158 1494201.861 87 1108565 419602.9

88 2013/04 1,623,995.93$ 92.10526316 1495064.503 88 1109346 514649.6

89 2013/05 1,475,847.32$ 93.15789474 1528167.937 89 1110128 365719.8

90 2013/06 1,459,736.13$ 94.21052632 1535325.125 90 1110909 348827.3

91 2013/07 1,741,840.76$ 95.26315789 1623995.933 91 1111690 630150.7

92 2013/08 1,663,642.38$ 96.31578947 1663642.376 92 1112471 551171.1

93 2013/09 1,829,251.17$ 97.36842105 1741840.762 93 1113253 715998.6

94 2013/10 1,875,350.92$ 98.42105263 1829251.169 94 1114034 761317.1

95 2013/11 1,495,064.50$ 99.47368421 1875350.923 95 1114815 380249.5

96 2013/12 1,115,596.29$

97

2014/01

1,117,310.15$

98 2014/02 1,122,214.51$ De CurveExpert:

99 2014/03 1,129,218.28$

100 2014/04 1,132,735.20$ Final Result [Linear Regressions/Linear]:

101 2014/05 1,140,488.02$ Equation : a + b*x

1022014/06

1,149,525.94$ 1,034,375.39 = a

103 2014/07 1,154,102.13$ 918.92 = b

1042014/08

1,158,586.02$ 284,754.71

105 2014/09 1,168,732.12$ 0.090010

106 2014/10 1,178,484.07$

1072014/11

1,191,075.03$ ** Pronósticos para: X =

108 2014/12 1,199,492.93$ $ 1,122,591.32 96

109 2015/01 1,202,414.31$ $ 1,123,510.24 97

110 2015/02 1,208,662.26$ $ 1,125,348.07 99

111 2015/03 1,215,012.46$ $ 1,126,266.99 100

112 2015/04 1,223,354.40$ $ 1,130,861.57 105

113 2015/05 1,238,723.71$ $ 1,131,780.48 106

114 2015/06 1,250,423.06$ $ 1,134,537.23 109

115 2015/07 1,261,434.81$ $ 1,135,456.15 110

116 2015/08 1,272,811.57$ $ 1,137,293.98 112

117 2015/09 1,287,337.40$ $ 1,138,212.89 113

118 2015/10 1,301,358.67$ $ 1,140,050.72 115

119 2015/11 1,318,695.72$ $ 1,143,726.39 119

120 2015/12 1,334,242.02$ $ 1,144,645.30 120

¿Qué es el Valor de la Producción de Bienes y Servicios?

• Este concepto representa la suma total del valor de los bienes y servicios producidos por una sociedad de acuerdo a la definición de la producción dada en la pregunta anterior e

incluye el valor de todos los productos sin considerar si son de demanda intermedia o de demanda final.

En términos generales la producción puede ser clasificada como producción de mercado y no de mercado. Es fundamental la distinción entre estas producciones.

En la producción de mercado se considera la producción de bienes y servicios que se destinan a su venta o despacho en el mercado e incluye el valor total de los bienes y servicios

vendidos, intercambiados, utilizados para pagos en especie, suministrados por un establecimiento a otro perteneciente a la misma empresa de mercado para uso como consumo

intermedio así como el valor de las variaciones en existencias de producción terminada y en proceso destinados a los usos señalados. La valoración de esta producción se hará a

precios básicos o a precios de productor según se determine en cada caso.

Se denomina producción no de mercado a aquella que no se produce para la venta u otro uso de mercado. Está constituida por los bienes y servicios producidos para uso final propio

o suministrados gratuitamente o a precios económicamente no significativos a otras unidades institucionales, individual o colectivamente. En el Sistema, esta producción se valora

sumando los costos incurridos en su producción, es decir mediante la suma de:

“consumo intermedio + remuneración de asalariados + consumo de capital fijo + impuestos menos subsidios sobre la producción”.

= Standard Error

= Correlation Coefficient

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 2

4,560 102,419,162 290,320 4,971,932,050 118,020,256,117,694

Para obtener la pendiente e intercepto con el método de mínimos cuadrados:

95 = n

x y x2 xy y2 (y - ӯ) (y - ӯ)2 (x - X ) (x -X )2 x y Correlaciones

1 1,084,306.99$ 1 1,084,307 1,175,721,645,219 6,210.54$ 38,570,860 -47 2,209 1 1,084,306.99

2 1,228,814.53$ 4 2,457,629 1,509,985,143,127 150,718.08$ 22,715,940,644 -46 2,116 2 1,228,814.53

3 1,312,498.76$ 9 3,937,496 1,722,652,997,568 234,402.32$ 54,944,446,101 -45 2,025 3 1,312,498.76

4 1,132,535.91$ 16 4,530,144 1,282,637,593,990 54,439.47$ 2,963,655,749 -44 1,936 4 1,132,535.91

5 1,320,599.78$ 25 6,602,999 1,743,983,784,952 242,503.34$ 58,807,868,969 -43 1,849 5 1,320,599.78

6 1,358,917.23$ 36 8,153,503 1,846,656,035,729 280,820.78$ 78,860,313,259 -42 1,764 6 1,358,917.23

7 1,129,267.74$ 49 7,904,874 1,275,245,626,346 51,171.29$ 2,618,501,409 -41 1,681 7 1,129,267.74

8 1,116,776.17$ 64 8,934,209 1,247,189,010,775 38,679.72$ 1,496,121,079 -40 1,600 8 1,116,776.17

9 1,369,877.38$ 81 12,328,896 1,876,564,035,633 291,780.94$ 85,136,114,356 -39 1,521 9 1,369,877.38

10 1,325,534.41$ 100 13,255,344 1,757,041,480,024 247,437.97$ 61,225,548,390 -38 1,444 10 1,325,534.41

11 1,432,466.60$ 12115,757,133

2,051,960,548,233354,370.15$

125,578,204,368-37

1,369 11 1,432,466.60

12 1,208,118.61$ 144 14,497,423 1,459,550,571,787 130,022.16$ 16,905,763,159 -36 1,296 12 1,208,118.61

13 938,266.12$ 169 12,197,460 880,343,306,719 (139,830.33)$ 19,552,520,350 -35 1,225 13 938,266.12

14 1,093,808.51$ 196 15,313,319 1,196,417,062,982 15,712.07$ 246,869,103 -34 1,156 14 1,093,808.51

15 1,089,765.18$ 225 16,346,478 1,187,588,158,278 11,668.74$ 136,159,510 -33 1,089 15 1,089,765.18

16 1,172,816.00$ 256 18,765,056 1,375,497,366,124 94,719.55$ 8,971,793,946 -32 1,024 16 1,172,816.00

17 1,481,429.24$ 289 25,184,297 2,194,632,591,539 403,332.80$ 162,677,343,719 -31 961 17 1,481,429.24

18 1,274,728.62$ 324 22,945,115 1,624,933,062,545 196,632.18$ 38,664,213,770 -30 900 18 1,274,728.62

19 1,219,288.71$ 361 23,166,486 1,486,664,967,373 141,192.27$ 19,935,256,963 -29 841 19 1,219,288.71

20 1,215,711.22$ 400 24,314,224 1,477,953,782,059 137,614.78$ 18,937,827,829 -28 784 20 1,215,711.22

21 1,340,029.85$ 441 28,140,627 1,795,679,993,634 261,933.40$ 68,609,108,036 -27 729 21 1,340,029.85

22 1,286,572.60$ 484 28,304,597 1,655,269,049,523 208,476.15$ 43,462,306,630 -26 676 22 1,286,572.60

23 1,412,049.30$ 529 32,477,134 1,993,883,231,225 333,952.86$ 111,524,511,207 -25 625 23 1,412,049.30

24 1,292,594.76$ 576 31,022,274 1,670,801,202,526 214,498.31$ 46,009,525,638 -24 576 24 1,292,594.76

25 905,726.85$ 625 22,643,171 820,341,121,866 (172,369.60)$ 29,711,277,953 -23 529 25 905,726.85

26 957,080.16$ 676 24,884,084 916,002,435,985 (121,016.28)$ 14,644,940,627 -22 484 26 957,080.16

27 933,054.73$ 729 25,192,478 870,591,125,800 (145,041.72)$ 21,037,099,388 -21 441 27 933,054.73

28 1,062,766.61$ 784 29,757,465 1,129,472,877,942 (15,329.83)$ 235,003,664 -20 400 28 1,062,766.61

29 1,007,759.04$ 841 29,225,012 1,015,578,280,616 (70,337.41)$ 4,947,350,578 -19 361 29 1,007,759.04

30 1,494,201.86$ 900 44,826,056 2,232,639,200,936 416,105.42$ 173,143,717,740 -18 324 30 1,494,201.86

31 1,263,297.86$ 961 39,162,234 1,595,921,479,087 185,201.41$ 34,299,563,822 -17 289 31 1,263,297.86

32 1,024,359.99$ 1,024 32,779,520 1,049,313,381,855 (53,736.46)$ 2,887,606,893 -16 256 32 1,024,359.99

33 779,593.48$ 1,089 25,726,585 607,765,995,267 (298,502.96)$ 89,104,019,185 -15 225 33 779,593.48

34 791,696.98$ 1,156 26,917,697 626,784,104,856 (286,399.47)$ 82,024,654,294 -14 196 34 791,696.98

35 825,382.68$ 1,225 28,888,394 681,256,576,539 (252,713.76)$ 63,864,244,148 -13 169 35 825,382.68

36 943,137.52$ 1,296 33,952,951 889,508,384,977 (134,958.92)$ 18,213,910,748 -12 144 36 943,137.52

37 683,000.10$ 1,369 25,271,004 466,489,140,678 (395,096.34)$ 156,101,118,857 -11 121 37 683,000.10

38 776,426.68$ 1,444 29,504,214 602,838,383,861 (301,669.77)$ 91,004,648,803 -10 100 38 776,426.68

39 804,999.73$ 1,521 31,394,989 648,024,559,343 (273,096.72)$ 74,581,817,338 -9 81 39 804,999.73

40 835,342.78$ 1,600 33,413,711 697,797,553,031 (242,753.67)$ 58,929,343,546 -8 64 40 835,342.78

41 732,362.53$ 1,681 30,026,864 536,354,875,389 (345,733.91)$ 119,531,939,422 -7 49 41 732,362.53

42 1,010,854.18$ 1,764 42,455,876 1,021,826,172,194 (67,242.26)$ 4,521,522,166 -6 36 42 1,010,854.18

43 880,540.99$ 1,849 37,863,263 775,352,432,563 (197,555.46)$ 39,028,158,055 -5 25 43 880,540.99

44 703,939.46$ 1,936 30,973,336 495,530,768,569 (374,156.98)$ 139,993,446,064 -4 16 44 703,939.46

45 824,430.62$ 2,025 37,099,378 679,685,839,329 (253,665.83)$ 64,346,352,797 -3 9 45 824,430.62

46 845,713.36$ 2,116 38,902,814 715,231,084,124 (232,383.09)$ 54,001,898,699 -2 4 46 845,713.36

47 1,011,927.66$ 2,209 47,560,600 1,023,997,590,540 (66,168.78)$ 4,378,307,909 -1 1 47 1,011,927.66

48 1,192,721.79$ 2,304 57,250,646 1,422,585,276,397 114,625.35$ 13,138,970,669 0 0 48 1,192,721.79

49 797,687.28$ 2,401 39,086,677 636,304,992,833 (280,409.17)$ 78,629,300,729 1 1 49 797,687.28

50 917,840.25$ 2,500 45,892,013 842,430,731,106 (160,256.19)$ 25,682,046,636 2 4 50 917,840.25

51 961,976.79$ 2,601 49,060,816 925,399,339,019 (116,119.66)$ 13,483,774,758 3 9 51 961,976.79

52 1,044,097.73$ 2,704 54,293,082 1,090,140,077,749 (33,998.71)$ 1,155,912,309 4 16 52 1,044,097.73

53 867,960.83$ 2,809 46,001,924 753,355,997,108 (210,135.62)$ 44,156,977,648 5 25 53 867,960.83

54 1,059,423.99$ 2,916 57,208,896 1,122,379,200,622 (18,672.45)$ 348,660,370 6 36 54 1,059,423.99

55 697,393.82$ 3,025 38,356,660 486,358,139,304 (380,702.62)$ 144,934,488,563 7 49 55 697,393.82

56 760,503.81$ 3,136 42,588,213 578,366,038,824 (317,592.64)$ 100,865,083,900 8 64 56 760,503.81

57 903,807.65$ 3,249 51,517,036 816,868,262,372 (174,288.80)$ 30,376,584,914 9 81 57 903,807.65

58 744,779.55$ 3,364 43,197,214 554,696,572,608 (333,316.90)$ 111,100,154,430 10 100 58 744,779.55

59 813,264.13$ 3,481 47,982,584 661,398,547,000 (264,832.31)$ 70,136,154,051 11 121 59 813,264.13

60 896,158.59$ 3,600 53,769,516 803,100,223,638 (181,937.85)$ 33,101,381,741 12 144 60 896,158.59

𝒙 𝒚 𝒙𝟐 𝒙𝒚 𝒚𝟐

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 3

61 789,472.46$ 3,721 48,157,820 623,266,768,837 (288,623.98)$ 83,303,802,900 13 169 61 789,472.46

62 830,975.02$ 3,844 51,520,451 690,519,478,405 (247,121.43)$ 61,068,999,932 14 196 62 830,975.02

63 814,990.56$ 3,969 51,344,405 664,209,613,004 (263,105.88)$ 69,224,706,274 15 225 63 814,990.56

64 732,509.23$ 4,096 46,880,591 536,569,777,103 (345,587.21)$ 119,430,520,241 16 256 64 732,509.23

65 831,963.16$ 4,225 54,077,606 692,162,702,933 (246,133.28)$ 60,581,592,614 17 289 65 831,963.16

66 982,029.63$ 4,356 64,813,956 964,382,201,858 (96,066.81)$ 9,228,832,045 18 324 66 982,029.63

67 805,532.42$ 4,489 53,970,672 648,882,482,595 (272,564.02)$ 74,291,146,310 19 361 67 805,532.42

68 679,186.30$ 4,624 46,184,668 461,294,030,795 (398,910.14)$ 159,129,302,758 20 400 68 679,186.30

69 859,660.79$ 4,761 59,316,595 739,016,681,021 (218,435.65)$ 47,714,133,216 21 441 69 859,660.79

70 800,195.99$ 4,900 56,013,720 640,313,627,842 (277,900.45)$ 77,228,660,570 22 484 70 800,195.99

71 1,048,063.40$ 5,041 74,412,502 1,098,436,898,176 (30,033.04)$ 901,983,523 23 529 71 1,048,063.40

72 759,046.55$ 5,184 54,651,352 576,151,664,636 (319,049.89)$ 101,792,835,183 24 576 72 759,046.55

73 718,297.28$ 5,329 52,435,701 515,950,979,209 (359,799.17)$ 129,455,440,200 25 625 73 718,297.28

74 799,259.91$ 5,476 59,145,233 638,816,400,223 (278,836.54)$ 77,749,814,040 26 676 74 799,259.91

75 896,762.58$ 5,625 67,257,194 804,183,132,488 (181,333.86)$ 32,881,968,776 27 729 75 896,762.58

76 878,464.27$ 5,776 66,763,284 771,699,466,108 (199,632.18)$ 39,853,006,701 28 784 76 878,464.27

77 1,027,474.27$ 5,929 79,115,519 1,055,703,367,826 (50,622.18)$ 2,562,604,901 29 841 77 1,027,474.27

78 1,043,017.00$ 6,084 81,355,326 1,087,884,462,289 (35,079.44)$ 1,230,567,407 30 900 78 1,043,017.00

79 1,103,591.75$ 6,241 87,183,748 1,217,914,742,669 25,495.30$ 650,010,432 31 961 79 1,103,591.75

80 954,379.90$ 6,400 76,350,392 910,840,985,929 (123,716.55)$ 15,305,784,298 32 1,024 80 954,379.90

81 1,159,267.14$ 6,561 93,900,639 1,343,900,310,079 81,170.70$ 6,588,682,427 33 1,089 81 1,159,267.14

82 1,109,208.55$ 6,724 90,955,101 1,230,343,601,637 31,112.10$ 967,962,965 34 1,156 82 1,109,208.55

83 1,535,325.13$ 6,889 127,431,985 2,357,223,239,687 457,228.68$ 209,058,066,597 35 1,225 83 1,535,325.13

84 1,412,931.16$ 7,056 118,686,217 1,996,374,459,536 334,834.71$ 112,114,286,095 36 1,296 84 1,412,931.16

85 1,216,618.48$ 7,225 103,412,571 1,480,160,524,604 138,522.04$ 19,188,354,252 37 1,369 85 1,216,618.48

86 1,346,055.95$ 7,396 115,760,812 1,811,866,615,049 267,959.50$ 71,802,295,647 38 1,444 86 1,346,055.95

87 1,528,167.94$ 7,569 132,950,611 2,335,297,243,099 450,071.49$ 202,564,348,444 39 1,521 87 1,528,167.94

88 1,623,995.93$ 7,744 142,911,642 2,637,362,789,257 545,899.49$ 298,006,251,466 40 1,600 88 1,623,995.93

89 1,475,847.32$ 7,921 131,350,411 2,178,125,309,353 397,750.87$ 158,205,758,483 41 1,681 89 1,475,847.32

90 1,459,736.13$ 8,100 131,376,252 2,130,829,563,899 381,639.68$ 145,648,848,369 42 1,764 90 1,459,736.13

91 1,741,840.76$ 8,281 158,507,509 3,034,009,238,716 663,744.32$ 440,556,518,833 43 1,849 91 1,741,840.76

92 1,663,642.38$ 8,464 153,055,099 2,767,705,955,029 585,545.93$ 342,864,038,156 44 1,936 92 1,663,642.38

93 1,829,251.17$ 8,649 170,120,359 3,346,159,838,559 751,154.72$ 564,233,420,260 45 2,025 93 1,829,251.17

94 1,875,350.92$ 8,836 176,282,987 3,516,941,083,962 797,254.48$ 635,614,703,750 46 2,116 94 1,875,350.92

95 1,495,064.50$ 9,025 142,031,128 2,235,217,869,446 416,968.06$ 173,862,362,410 47 2,209 95 1,495,064.50

4,560 102,419,162.20$ 290,320 4,971,932,050 118,020,256,117,694 0 7,602,521,528,932 0 71,440

x y x2 xy y2 (y - ӯ) (y - ӯ)2 (x - X ) (x -X )2

Varianza de y = 80,877,888,606 Varianza de x = 760 Media Desviación típica N

Desv estándar de y = 284,390.3806489670 Desv estándar de x = 27.5680975042 MES (X) 48.00000000 27.5680975042 95

Desv Est de y Fórmula = 284,390.3806489670 Desv Est de x Fórmula = 27.5680975042 Valor (Y) 1,078,096.44 284,390.38062 95

b = <==== INTERCEPTO

Media de y = 1,078,096.44$ Media de x = 48.0000000000

Promedio de y Fórmula = 1,078,096.44$ Promedio de x Fórmula = 48.0000000000 MES Valor

1 .0757321160247

.4657435273436

m = <==== PENDIENTE 95 95.0000000000000

** Pronósticos para: X =.07573211602466 1

$1,115,596.29 96 .46574352734361

$1,116,377.53 97 95 95$1,117,940.03 99

$1,118,721.27 100

$1,122,627.51 105

$1,123,408.75 106

r xy = $1,125,752.49 109

$1,126,533.74 110

$1,128,096.23 112

$1,128,877.48 113

$1,130,439.97 115

$1,133,564.96 119

$1,134,346.21 120

Correlaciones

MES

Valor

Correlación de Pearson

Sig. (bilateral)

N

Correlación de Pearson

Sig. (bilateral)

N

Estadísticos descriptivos

1,040,596.60271332

781.24669805

0.0757321154731752

Y = 1040596.60271332 + 781.246698053859X

𝑏 = 𝑦 𝑥2 − 𝑥 𝑥𝑦

𝑁 𝑥2 − 𝑥 𝑥

𝑚 = 𝑁 𝑥𝑦 − 𝑥 𝑦

𝑁 𝑥2 − 𝑥 𝑥

𝑟𝑥𝑦 = 𝑥𝑖𝑦𝑖 −𝑛 ӯ

𝑛𝑠𝑥𝑠𝑦 =

𝑛 𝑥𝑖𝑦𝑖 − 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖

𝑛 𝑥𝑖2 − ( 𝑥𝑖)

2 𝑛 𝑦𝑖2 − ( 𝑦𝑖)

2

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 4