tal walk ars
Post on 05-Apr-2018
223 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
1/24
Anil Nandyala (B11005)
Asish Ghosh (B11011)
Binayak Das (B11014)
Somaditya Baral (B11044)
Presented by
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
2/24
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
3/24
Assumptions
Balance Sheets
Profit & loss Account
Revenue Drivers
CAPM
WACC
FCFF
AGENDA
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
4/24
ASSUMPTIONSThe Red coded figures are the actual values from previous years and the projected values are in blue c
All the figures are in lakhs
Balance SheetIncrease in Gross block is projected based on increase in number of health clubs
Increase in Debt is taken as 80% of increase in gross block
Profit & Loss Account
Operating Margin is taken as 40%
Revenue Drivers
2012 income projected based on first 3 quarters
The ratio of Owned : subsidary : Franchise i.e 73: 9:18 remains constantAll HIFI Gym's are franchise woned
CAPM
Market Returns are found by taking 15 years annual returns from Sensex
Risk Free taken as 8.24%, 10 years Govt bonds coupon rate
Cost of equity is found by CAPM
Returns from HIFI Gym's was projected based on franchise fees of health clubs
FCFF
Terminal value is taken as 10%
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
5/24
lour
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
6/24
2008-09 2009-10
Sources Of Funds
Share Capital 196.69 1806.57
Reserves And Surplus 1859.2 2398.89
2055.89 4205.46
Deffered Tax Liability 0 482.09
Loan Funds
Secured Loans 5092.77 6285.56
Unsecured Loans 3033.39 3434.52
Total Debt 8126.16 9720.08
19.61%
Increase in Debt 1593.92
Total 10182.05 14407.63
Application Of Funds
Fixed Assets
Gross Block 11088.62 13219.23
Growth % 19.21%
Growth in Rs 2130.61
Less: Accumulated Depreciation/Amortisation 1009.72 1608.16
Depreciation as % of assets 9.11% 12.17%
Net Block 10078.9 11611.07
Capital Work In Progress 176.06 1301.87
10254.96 12912.94
Investments 409.75 494.02
Current Assets, Loans And Advances
Sundry Debtors 59.65 328.73
Cash And Bank Balances 75.94 1248.71
Loans And Advances 884.34 1087.21
1019.93 2664.65
Less: Current Liabilities And Provisions
Current Liabilites 1262.62 1182.3
Provisions 239.97 562.15
1502.59 1744.45
Net Current Assets -482.66 920.2
Working Capital Required -558.6 -328.51Working Capital as % of sales -4.86% -2.23%
Miscellaneous Expenditure 0 80.47
Additional W.C Required
Total 10182.05 14407.63
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
7/24
2010-11 AVERAGE EXPECTED 2011-12 2012-13
2411.57
10066.43
12478
1048.42
10211.59
926.47
11138.06 15510.94368 19009.28768
14.59%
1417.98 4372.88368 3498.344
24664.48
18904.01 24370.1146 28743.0446
43.00%
5684.78 5466.1046 4372.93
2416.12 2766.187681 3262.547477
12.78% 11.35% 11.35%
16487.89
2742.54
19230.43
969.14
1443.74
2795.13
2224.07
6462.94
881.68
1116.35
1998.03
4464.91
1669.78 1148.856276 1470.45042319.30% 4.07% 10%
0
-520.9237245 321.5941472
24664.48
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
8/24
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
25131.3584 33177.5024 44377.5024
6122.07072 8046.144 11200
36395.633 46453.313 60453.313
7652.5884 10057.68 14000
4131.172681 5272.793513 6861.896731
1862.353311 2496.65299 3531.744172
391.9028881 634.2996787 1035.091183
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
9/24
Income
Income From Operations
Other Income
% increase in profit
Expenditure
Personal Cost
Administrative and Other expenses
Selling And Marketing Cost
Service Tax Collected And Paid
Total Expendiature
Expendiature as percent of income
Profit before Interest , Deprecistion , Extraordinary Items and Taxes
Finance Cost
Interest rate for Total Debt
Profit Before Depreciation, Extraordinary Items And Taxes
Depreciation/ Amortisation
Profit Before Extraordinary Items And Taxes
Profit/ Loss on sale of asset
Compensation for loss of Business Received
Profit Before Tax
Taxation
Defferd Tax Liability / AssetTotal Tax
Income tax %
Profit After Tax
Balance Brought Forward
Profit Available for Appropriation
Appropriations
Effects on Change in AS 11
Effect on Previous Year's DTL
Proposed Dividend on Equity Shares
Tax On DividendDebenture Redemption Reserve
Balance carried To Balance Sheet
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
10/24
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 AVERAGE
5951.85 6611.55 8652.04
22.41 38.29 189.42
5974.26 6649.84 8841.46
11.31% 32.96%
1601.84 1568.32 1775.72
1717.35 1731.12 2169.96
272.45 146.69 271.95
623.58 605.82 786.31
4215.22 4051.95 5003.94
70.82% 61.29% 57.84% 63.31%
1759.04 2597.89 3837.52
799.96 808.76 735.95
9.84% 5.61% 6.61% 7.36%
959.08 1789.13 3101.57
458.29 608.9 833.36
500.79 1180.23 2268.21
270.35 -21.32 -36.44
10 0 0
781.14 1158.91 2231.77
108.1 212.31 447.2
0 152.9 261.88108.1 365.21 709.08
13.84% 31.51% 31.77% 25.71%
673.04 793.7 1522.69
852.12 1522.86 1822.44
1525.16 2316.56 3345.13
0 23.86 0
0 329.19 0
1.97 120.58 241.16
0.33 20.49 40.0322.6
1522.86 1822.44 3041.34
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
11/24
EXPECTED 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
11488.56276 14704.50423 18623.53311 24966.5299 35317.44172
234.4604644 300.091923 380.0721043 509.5210183 720.7641168
11723.02322 15004.59615 19003.60521 25476.05091 36038.20584
7033.813932 9002.75769 11402.16313 15285.63055 21622.9235
60%
4689.209288 6001.83846 7601.442085 10190.42037 14415.28234
1140.839977 1398.145449 1848.427725 2440.226839 3263.99411
7.36%
3548.369311 4603.693011 5753.01436 7750.193526 11151.28823
350.0676813 496.3597954 868.6252039 1141.620833 1589.103218
3198.30163 4107.333216 4884.389156 6608.572694 9562.185007
3198.30163 4107.333216 4884.389156 6608.572694 9562.185007
1012.027766 1299.669556 1545.550739 2091.128303 3025.729856
31.64%
2186.273864 2807.66366 3338.838418 4517.444391 6536.455151
3041.34 0 0 0 0
5227.613864 2807.66366 3338.838418 4517.444391 6536.455151
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
12/24
Projections are based on the following data
FICCI E&Y 35% Growth rate for the next 5 years, 2009
As per current Census there are 39% of the population between the ages 20 -44
By 2016 40% of the population will be aged between 20 - 44
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
13/24
2011-12 2012-13
Health Club's 126 150
Owned 73% 91.98 109.5
Joint Venture 9% 11.34 13.5
Franchise 18% 22.68 27
HIFI Gym's 10 45
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Gross income 5724.86 6356.26 7779.17
No of health clubs 40 52 77
Round off values
Franchise fee 129.8 641.18
No Of Franchise 6 19
Round off values
No of HIFI Gym's
Gross income
2011-12 2012-13
Gross Fees 10356.786 12566.17114
Franchise Fess 863.0655 1084.951
Franchise Fess for HIFI Gym 38.94 759.292
Input Credit 2% 229.7712551 294.0900845
Total Income 11488.56276 14704.50423
Talwalkars Health & Fitness Centres
HEALTH CL
HIFI GYM
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
14/24
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
180 225 300
131.4 164.25 219
16.2 20.25 27
32.4 40.5 54
75 150 250
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
10356.786 12566.17114 15512.018 19685.301 27049.91819
97.65 116.25 139.5 174.375 232.5
98 116 140 174 234
863.0655 1084.951 1362.307875 1861.55025 2582.678125
22.68 27 32.4 40.5 54
23 27 32 41 54
10 45 75 150 250
38.94 759.292 1376.736571 2920.348 4978.496571
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
15512.018 19685.30105 27049.91819
1362.307875 1861.55025 2582.678125
1376.736571 2920.348 4978.496571
372.4706622 499.3305979 706.3488344
18623.53311 24966.5299 35317.44172
UB
'S
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
15/24
S.No No.of Health Clubs (x) Income (y) xy
1 77 7779.17 598996.09
2 98 10356.786 1014965.028
Total 175 18135.956 1613961.118
n 2
X 87.5
Y 9067.978
b 122.743619
a -1672.088667
S.No No of Franchises (x) Income (y) xy
1 19 641.18 12182.42
2 23 863.0655 19850.5065
Total 42 1504.2455 32032.9265
n 2
X 21
Y 752.12275
b 55.471375
a -412.776125
S.NO No of Franchises (x) Income (y) xy
1 10 38.94 389.4
2 45 759.292 34168.14
Total 55 798.232 34557.54
n 2X 27.5
Y 399.116
b 20.58148571
a -166.8748571
HIFI Gym's Franchises
Regression AnalysisHealth Clubs woned
Health Clubs Franchises
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
16/24
x^2
5929
9604
15533
x^2
361
529
890
x^2
100
2025
2125
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
17/24
Month OPEN CLOSE % (GAIN/LOSS)
May-10 138 183.75
Jun-10 182.5 179.45 -1.67%
Jul-10 180 170.8 -5.11%Aug-10 173.4 200.1 15.40%
Sep-10 202 229.25 13.49%
Oct-10 232.9 237.35 1.91%
Nov-10 237 261.4 10.30%
Dec-10 264.9 269.85 1.87%
Jan-11 272.75 225.9 -17.18%
Feb-11 181 192.35 6.27%
Mar-11 194 218.5 12.63%
Apr-11 219.1 224.05 2.26%
May-11 225.65 230.05 1.95%Jun-11 233.15 251.1 7.70%
Jul-11 252 241.3 -4.25%
Aug-11 244.2 191.95 -21.40%
Sep-11 190.15 177.15 -6.84%
Oct-11 177.15 174 -1.78%
Nov-11 172.8 138.5 -19.85%
Dec-11 143 119.05 -16.75%
Jan-12 119 140.55 18.11%
Feb-12 141.75 162.1 14.36%
0.54%
11.94%
COVARIANCE 0.53%
1.283298487Risk free return (Rf) 8.24%
Market Return (Rm) 16.33%
Return on equity (Ke) Rf + (Rm-Rf) 18.62%
covariance/variance of market
Standard Deviation
TALWALKARS
AVG Return
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
18/24
Month OPEN CLOSE % (GAIN/LOSS)
May-10 17,536.86 16,944.63
Jun-10 16,942.82 17,700.90 4.47%
Jul-10 17,679.34 17,868.29 1.07%Aug-10 17,911.31 17,971.12 0.33%
Sep-10 18,027.12 20,069.12 11.33%
Oct-10 20,094.10 20,032.34 -0.31%
Nov-10 20,272.49 19,521.25 -3.71%
Dec-10 19,529.99 20,509.09 5.01%
Jan-11 20,621.61 18,327.76 -11.12%
Feb-11 18,425.18 17,823.40 -3.27%
Mar-11 17,982.28 19,445.22 8.14%
Apr-11 19,463.11 19,135.96 -1.68%
May-11 19,224.05 18,503.28 -3.75%Jun-11 18,527.12 18,845.87 1.72%
Jul-11 18,974.96 18,197.20 -4.10%
Aug-11 18,352.23 16,676.75 -9.13%
Sep-11 16,963.67 16,453.76 -3.01%
Oct-11 16,255.97 17,705.01 8.91%
Nov-11 17,540.55 16,123.46 -8.08%
Dec-11 16,555.93 15,454.92 -6.65%
Jan-12 15,534.67 17,193.55 10.68%
Feb-12 17,179.64 17,752.68 3.34%
0.01%
6.45%Standard Deviation
SENSEX
AVG Return
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
19/24
Year OPEN CLOSE % (GAIN/LOSS)
1996 3,114.08 3,085.20 -0.93%
1997 3,096.65 3,658.98 18.16%
1998 3,658.34 3,055.41 -16.48%1999 3,064.95 5,005.82 63.32%
2000 5,209.54 3,972.12 -23.75%
2001 3,990.65 3,262.33 -18.25%
2002 3,262.01 3,377.28 3.53%
2003 3,383.85 5,838.96 72.55%
2004 5,872.48 6,602.69 12.43%
2005 6,626.49 9,397.93 41.82%
2006 9,422.49 13,786.91 46.32%
2007 13,827.77 20,286.99 46.71%
2008 20,325.27 9,647.31 -52.54%2009 9,720.55 17,464.81 79.67%
2010 17,473.45 20,509.09 17.37%
2011 20,621.61 15,454.92 -25.05%
15,534.67 17,503.24 12.67%
16.33%
MARKET RETURNS
AVG Return
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
20/24
MPS 150
No of Shares 24115672
M Cap 3617350800
M cap Rs in Lakhs 36173.508
Year Debt Interest Kd
2009 8126.16 799.96 9.84%
2010 9720.08 808.76 8.32%
2011 11138.06 735.95 6.61%
Avg Kd 8.26%
Kd(1-t) 5.64%
Ke 18.62%
Tax rate 31.64%
Cost of Debt (Kd)
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Market Capitalization
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
21/24
WACC=[(D/D+E)*Kd(1-t)]+[(E/D+E)*Ke]
WACC
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
22/24
15.56%
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
23/24
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
PAT 2186.273864 2807.66366 3338.838418
Interest 1140.839977 1398.145449 1848.427725
Interest (1-Taxrate) 779.8478421 955.7350141 1263.535992
NOPLAT 2966.121706 3763.398674 4602.37441
Depriciation 350.0676813 496.3597954 868.6252039
Additional capital through debt 4372.88368 3498.344 6122.07072
CAPEX 5466.1046 4372.93 7652.5884
W.C Requirement -520.9237245 321.5941472 391.9028881
FCFF 2743.892192 3063.578322 3548.579046
Terminal Value 10%
Years 1 2 3
Discount Factor (WACC) 15.56%
Present Value of FCFF 2374.336163 2293.925529 2299.217064
Out standing Debt
Equity Value
No of Shares
-
7/31/2019 Tal Walk Ars
24/24
2015-16 2016-17 PERPETUITY
4517.444391 6536.455151
2440.226839 3263.99411
1668.074115 2231.179495
6185.518506 8767.634645
1141.620833 1589.103218
8046.144 11200
10057.68 14000
634.2996787 1035.091183
4681.303659 6521.646681 117198.7498
4 5 6
TOTAL
2624.626242 3163.975294 49201.00336 61957.08365
27568.71961
34388.36404
24115672
142.5975774Fair Value
top related