the causes and consequences of the october war great powers in the middle east galen jackson april...

The Causes and Consequences of the October War

Great Powers in the Middle EastGalen JacksonApril 22, 2014

Agenda

• Briefly wrap up the Israeli nuclear program• The War of Attrition and the Rogers Plan • The Jordan Crisis• The Road to War• Kissinger and the Disengagement Agreements• Summary

The NPT Debate

“Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb”

Significance of the Israeli Bomb

• October 1973

• Nonproliferation efforts in the Middle East/worldwide today (Iran)

• Egyptian-Israeli peace? U.S.-Israeli relations?

The Aftermath of the June 1967 War

• UN Resolution 242 and the Jarring Mission

• Egyptian armed forces completely destroyed

• The Allon Plan

• Stalemate

Nasser’s Strategy: Enter the Russians

Soviet Goals in the Middle East

• Nurture Egyptian dependence/expand influence with Cairo

• Naval facilities

• Avoid another war but regain lost prestige

• Détente? “Controlled tension?”

Ups and Downs in U.S.-Israeli Relations

• Beginning of a major military relationship

• Divergence on political issues—Rusk’s Sept. 1968 Seven Point Plan (territorial disagreement)

• Israel content to wait it out/divisions within Israeli leadership on visions for peace

To the War of Attrition

The Superpowers and the Diplomatic Impasse

• Nixon’s inconsistent views on the Arab-Israeli conflict

• Reflected in the split between State and Kissinger

• Rogers gets the Middle East

• U.S.-Soviet negotiations: a “test” for the USSR

• The Failure of the Rogers Plan in Dec. 1969

• The End of Joint Diplomacy

Israel’s Escalation

Nasser in Moscow

Operation Kavkaz

• Starts to turn the tide—by April penetration bombing is called off

• Soviet missile crews/combat pilots directly engaged

• Washington refuses to back Israel, though Nixon does promise to quietly replace losses

• Costs to both sides becoming heavy/situation getting out of control by the summer

“Stop Shooting, Start Talking”

Black September

Significance of the Jordan Crisis

• Rogers is undermined • The PLO is expelled to Lebanon • Hussein’s position in Jordan is solidified but at the

cost of his position in the Arab world• U.S.-Soviet Middle East relations deteriorate

further• Nasser’s last act as the leader of Egypt• Rise of Hafez al-Asad in Syria• “Standstill diplomacy”

Enter Anwar Sadat

The Gromyko Plan

Détente, “Standstill Diplomacy,” and Sadat’s “Violent Shock”

Sadat’s Strategy

San Clemente

The October War

The October War

• Intelligence failure• Egypt’s brilliant strategy• The American and Soviet airlifts—dispute about Israel’s

nuclear maneuvers • The Arab oil embargo• Sketch of military developments—Israel turns the tide

with Sharon’s crossing• Kissinger in Moscow• UN Resolution 338• The Oct. 24-25 nuclear alert

Crossing the Canal

The Conflict Transformed

Shuttle Diplomacy and Henry Kissinger

• Geneva Conference (Dec. 1973)

• Sinai I (January 1974)

• End of the embargo (March 1974)

• “The Shuttle” (May 1974): “Super K”

• Nixon’s resignation (Aug. 9)

New President, Same Problem

The Rabat Arab Summit

Reassessment (March 1975)

• Ford wants some quid pro quo

• Kissinger’s Failed March Shuttle: “The magic is gone.”

• Debating a comprehensive solution—linkage

Domestic Pushback

The Road to Sinai II

The Second Egyptian-Israeli Disengagement Agreement

• Limited Israeli withdrawal behind the Giddi and Mitla Passes, return of the Sinai oil fields

• DMZs, American civilian monitors• American commitments: PLO pledge,

coordination of strategy pledge, Geneva Conference procedures pledge, Golan Heights pledge (significant during the 1990s)

• $ and weapons for Israel ($2 billion and sophisticated equipment like Lance missiles)

Sinai II

The End of Step-by-Step Diplomacy

• Had run its course

• 1976 an election year, no progress

• Carter Administration opts for an overall approach

Summing Up

• Amimut: Significant for Camp David?• Moscow and Washington cannot work it out• From Nasser to Sadat• Military option as the Arabs’ last resort• October War breaks the freeze• Step-by-step diplomacy—a partial solution• For Thursday: To Camp David

Questions?

Thank You!