the role of money in trade balance stability
Post on 15-Jul-2015
104 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
The Role Of Money In Trade-Balance Stability:Synthesis Of The Elasticity And
Absorption Approaches
By S.C. Tsiang 1961
C. J. Huang & B. H. Hsieh reportInternational Economic
The AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
•彈性法Elasticity approach-J.Robinson
•吸收法Absorption approach-S.S.Alexander and Meade
B ≡ Y − AB:貿易餘額
Y:國民收入
A:吸收or國民支出
Introduction The Model
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
•在貨幣供給及信用的效果詳細闡明前,貶值帶來的效果無法確定(Machlup)
•支出法的最大貢獻就是強調了貨幣對於BOP赤字或盈餘所帶來的影響(Johnson)
• Michaely試圖整合彈性法與支出法-real balance effect
•加入乘數分析的彈性法 (Brown,Allen,Harberger,Laursen and Metzler,Stuvel,Jones)也尚未加入貨幣扮演的角色。甚至是將支出法與彈性法綜合的Brems以及Alexander本人也沒有。
Introduction The Model
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
• Meade模型將貨幣供給和利率納入
• Meade模型的前提:
Keynesian neutral economy
保證內部平衡的貨幣政策
Introduction The Model
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
•國內支出變化量:
•國內支出變化量(Meade):
Introduction The Model
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
•內生 ∶ 𝑑𝑎, 𝑑𝑏 , 𝑞𝑎 , 𝑞𝑏 , 𝑟𝑎, 𝑟𝑏 , 𝑡
•外生:𝑒,𝑚𝑎 , 𝑚𝑏
Introduction The Model
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Effect of a Devaluation
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
The Role Of Money In Trade-Balance Stability : Synthesis Of The Elasticity And Absorption ApproachesInternational Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
•充分就業
•價格穩定
•國家總產出
•內部平衡=消費[可支配所得] +投資+政府支出+經常帳
內部平衡假設
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
關於一國貨幣的貶值與該國貿易收支改善程度的關係,一國貨幣相對於他國貨幣貶值,能否改善該國的貿易收支狀況
(1)出口商品的需求彈性
(2)出口商品的供給彈性
(3)進口商品的需求彈性
(4)進口商品的供給彈性
出口需求彈性+進口需求彈性>1 ,則貶值可改善收支情況
Marshall-Lerner 條件
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
• Meade模型在 Keynesian neutral monetary policy下成立
•分母異於Marshall-Lerner 條件
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
• 𝑡 ,貿易平衡變動量
• 𝑒 ,A國貨幣在B國每單位可購買變動匯率
• 𝜋 ,A國以總和支出替代國民所得所定義的進口傾向
• 𝜖 ,進口需求的補償支出價格彈性
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
•貿易條件的影響對總支出貨幣貶值,對於貿易平衡無影響
• 貿易條件的支出變化,附加效果將抵消,從充分就業的貨幣政策進行自動補償。
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
• 𝑎 𝑏 國家支出比例,進口兩國商品之花費
• 𝜆𝑎, 𝜆𝑏 為邊際儲蓄傾向
• 𝜂𝑎, 𝜂𝑏 產量實質勞動成本彈性
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
•𝑡
𝑒> 0, ∆1> 0則為穩定
• 𝜆𝑎, 𝜆𝑏 其中一個或皆為負,則為穩定條件
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
•動態不穩定→則模型不穩定
•動態穩定→則模型穩定
Samuelson(1941) “ The Correspondence Principle
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
傳統貨幣中立政策
•缺乏長期人口成長
•經濟體系實質生產力
•經濟體系貨幣供給固定
•Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
•Orthodox Neutral Monetary Policy
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
• 衡量在一定時期內一個國家出口相對於進口的指標,反映該國的對外貿易狀況,為一國出口與進口的交換比價:
貿易條件指數(N)=出口價格指數(Px)/進口價格指數(Pm)×100
• 貿易條件指數大於100,出口價格比進口價格相對上漲,換回更多商品,該國貿易條件有利
• 貿易條件指數小於100 ,出口價格比進口價格相對下跌,換回更少商品,該國貿易條件不利
• 貿易條件的惡化會降低一國的福利水平。
貿易條件效果
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
• 𝑎 𝑏 國家支出比例,進口兩國商品之花費
• 𝜆𝑎, 𝜆𝑏 為邊際儲蓄傾向
• 𝜂𝑎, 𝜂𝑏 產量實質勞動成本彈性
𝜆𝑎, 𝜆𝑏 >0
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
在貿易條件效果總和支出,結合兩學派最重要的因素為-貨幣因子
1)相對價格效果與支用效果
2)支用學派在凱因斯政策下成立,則邊際儲蓄傾向>0,
則進口需求彈性>1,而在邊際儲蓄傾向=0,𝑡
𝑒= 0則貶值效果為零,
當邊際儲蓄傾向為<0,則為不穩定。
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
3)當需求進出口彈性總額>1,邊際儲蓄傾向>0時,是匯率最佳情況
在凱因斯政策之下,在貶值國家充分就業時,則每供給一個商品需要的勞動為零時,∆1、∆2為無限大,貶值效果為零
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
𝜉收入與貨幣需求
𝜁利率與貨幣需求
𝜌利率與國內支出
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
在本國充分就業不隱含不穩定的貿易平衡和匯率
當A國為充份就業時 𝜂𝑎→0 則𝑡
𝑒不為0
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
貿易條件在支出上,穩定條件下更加嚴格
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
Internal Balance Assumed
Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy
The Terms-of-Trade Effect
Instability of the Keynesian
Orthodox Neutral Money Policy
則與Marshall-Lerner 穩定條件相比
International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
• 支出理論在分析貶值效果,僅在強調貿易平衡為正向則增加儲蓄效果,在貿易平衡為負向則減少儲蓄效果,要進行更全面收入與支出的影響分析,需要更多彈性方法。
• 本文顯示,不僅是由彈性決定貶值效果。
• 在貨幣需求或供給無限情況下固定利率的凱因斯假設,扼殺了貨幣因子
• 對於貨幣假設,隱含不穩定匯率在本國達到充分就業時,甚至沒有對投機性資本流動與工資物價上漲,依然會不穩定,但在現今社會很難再次達到就業量。
• 指出兩觀點並非互斥,而為相輔相成。
Conclusion
top related