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8/11/2019 TMN141010 (1)
1/10Please note that due to the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited.
ThanachartsMo
rningNote
THAILANDsTOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
Current Market Net trade SET Index vs MSCI Asia x JP
Market data Close %
SET Index 1,560.6 1.1%
Turnover (Bt m) 44,703 10.0%
Mkt Cap (Bt bn) 14,197 1.1%
Stock Gainers 580 stocks
Stock Losers 244 stocks
Net trade (Bt bn) Prev. -1M YTD
Foreign +1.5 +11.5 -5.1
Retail -2.2 -2.2 -30.8
Institutes +2.7 -3.1 +30.5
Proprietary -1.9 -6.2 +5.4
450
500
550
600
650
1,0001,100
1,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,700
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
(index)(index) SET index (LHS)
MSCI Asia x JP ( RHS)
TOP STORY
Siam Senses | Healthy correction
Siam Senses sees the SETs correction as healthy. While fundamentalsappear unchanged, we believe the break after the sharp, straight run-up since
early in the year provides another buying opportunity. We reaffirm our 2015
SET target of 1,750 and add more beta to our portfolio via CK at the expense
of CPALL.
Infrastructure (OW) Mass transit projects make progress P.3
Four mass transit lines are in line for cabinet approval.The bidding should be in late 2014 or early 2015.BTS could benefit via direct negotiations for the O&M contracts.Maintain Overweight with STEC and BTS our top picks.
PTTEP (BUY) 3Q14F net profit to fall 25% q-q P.4
We forecast PTTEP to post a 25% q-q drop in net profit in 3Q14 dragged by a tapering off of ASP and huge dry-well write-offs.We expect profits to stay weak as a result of falling gas prices.Consequently, we see downside to our 2014-16 earnings forecasts.
RATCH (BUY) Inks MOU with Myanmar to develop power plant P.5
RATCH signs an MOU to develop the 2.6GW coal-fired Myeik power plant.RATCH with three partners estimates the investment at US$5.3bn.According to the news, COD is expected in 2020.Myeik would add value; Hongsa would boost short-term earnings.
Market Valuation
Market data 2014F 2015F 2016F
PE (x) 16.2 14.0 12.3
Norm EPS growth (%) 7.0 14.6 13.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 9.1 8.3
P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9
Yield (%) 3.0 3.4 4.0
ROE (%) 15.3 16.3 16.9
Net D/E (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6Major Indices
Close %
Dow Jones 16,659 -335.0 -2.0%
NASDAQ 4,378 -90.3 -2.0%
FTSE 6,432 -50.4 -0.8%
SHCOMP (China) 2,389 6.6 0.3%
Hang Seng 23,535 271.2 1.2%
FTSSI (Singapore) 3,259 32.5 1.0%
KOSPI 1,965 0.0 0.0%
JCI (Indonesia) 4,994 35.4 0.7%
MSCI Asia 124 0.3 0.2%
MSCI Asia x JP 565 5.6 1.0%Currency /Bond data
Close %
Dollar index 85.5 0.2 0.3%
Bt/US$ 32.4 -0.1 -0.4%
100JPY/US$ 107.8 -0.2 -0.2%
10Y bond yield (TH) 3.4 0.0 -0.9%
10Y treasury yield (US) 2.3 0.0 -0.3%
Commodities
Close %
NYMEX (US$/bbl) 85.8 -1.5 -1.8%
BRENT (ICE) (US$/bbl) 90.1 -1.3 -1.5%
DUBAI (US$/bbl) 90.0 0.1 0.1%Baltic Dry Index 974.0 -17.0 -1.7%
GRM (US$/bbl) 7.4 -0.5 -6.5%
Gold (US$/oz) 1,225.3 19.3 1.6%
Coal (BJI)* 65.4 0.3 0.4%
HDPE-Naphtha 761.5 15.5 2.1%
Ethylene-Naphtha 651.5 -2.0 -0.3%
PX-Naphtha 384.5 -42.5 -10.0%
BZ-Naphtha 374.0 8.0 2.2%
Steel-HRC 527.5 -10.0 -1.9%
Rubber SICOM TSR20 1,444 13.0 0.9%
Rubber TOCOM 1,689 19.2 1.1%Raw Sugar** 16.7 -0.2 -1.3%
White Sugar** 19.3 -0.2 -1.0%
(US$/tonne)* (US$ cent/lb)**
Source: Thanachart , Bloomberg, Datastream, BanpuNote: * Weekly data
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This report is prepared by Thanachart Securities. Please contact our salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page
Thanachart
Securities
Than
achartSecurit
ies
THAILAND STRATEGY NOTE 10 OCTOBER 2014
Siam Senses
PIMPAKA NICHGAROON, CFA
Head of Research662 617 4900
pimpaka.nic@thanachartsec.co.th
Healthy correction
Siam Sensessees the SETs correction as healthy. While fundamentals
appear unchanged, we believe the break after the sharp, straight run-up
since early in the year provides another buying opportunity. We reaffirm
our 2015 SET target of 1,750 and add more beta to our portfolio via CK
at the expense of CPALL.
Market correction get it over with
The SET has finally corrected and we see this is as healthy for 3
reasons: 1) The fundamental stories of the Thai market havent
changed, in our view. 2) We believe the correction was overdue after
the sharp, straight run-up since the start of the year, thereby eliminating
concerns that a correction lies ahead. 3) We think many foreigninvestors have left the market given the political turmoil and market
valuations they dont see as being at bargain levels. To us, this is
another buying opportunity. To gauge the extent of the market
correction, our technical analysis team sees downside to around 1,500.
We stick to our 1,750 SET target in 2015
With no change to Thailands fundamental stories, we stick to our 2015
SET target of 1,750. We argue this is not excessive. Assuming we are
in 2015 and the SET at that stage trades at similar current-year (15.6x)
and one-year forward (13.7x) PEs as today, the SET would be at 1,750.
We expect the SET next year to be able to trade on similar PE multiples
to this years as we see rising earnings growth. We forecast marketearnings growth to recover from 7% in 2014 to 14% in 2015-16. We
maintain our sector preferences for banking, infrastructure, tourism,
renewable energy and healthcare.
Another sign of a new political era
The coup-makers showed their intent right from the start to curb
populist policies not only in the current governments term but also in
the future. We have therefore been expecting new laws and regulations
to be enforced before a new election. If there are effective curbs upon
populist policies, we see the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra Pheu Thai Partys
populist charm being checked at the same level as other parties. We
have seen the first glimpses of populist curbs: 1) the Fiscal Policy Office(FPO) is drafting a new state monetary and fiscal law that should also
have clauses to limit populist and off-budget spending, and 2) the Bank
of Thailand is being given authority to supervise state banks, which
were used in the past as government off-budget financiers.
We add even more beta
With the market correction we decide to add more beta to our portfolio.
We add Ch. Karnchang (CK TB) at the expense of CP All (CPALL TB).
Infrastructure is our favorite sector and we want more exposure in our
portfolio. We expect CK, like another of our top picks Sino-Thai
Engineering (STEC TB) to win more government contracts in the new
infrastructure cycle, which we forecast to be a sustained multi-year one.
We reaffirm our BUY rating on CPALL, but it is a low-beta play and we
expect consumption to recover slower than government spending.
Top Picks
EPS growth PE Yield
14F 15F 14F 15F 15F
(%) (%) (x) (x) (%)
AOT 21.6 20.4 26.4 21.9 1.8
BBL 3.5 14.3 10.1 8.8 3.8
BGH 19.6 17.1 38.3 32.7 1.5
BTS 13.4 1.7 53.8 52.9 6.7
CENTEL (3.7) 41.2 40.8 28.9 1.4
CK * 42.6 8.8 35.4 32.5 1.5
EA 562.6 92.9 52.4 27.2 1.1
KBANK 10.6 22.8 12.0 9.8 2.0
KBS (16.1) 19.6 12.1 10.1 4.9
STEC 11.5 7.6 24.9 23.2 1.7
Stock taken out
CPALL 30.5 32.6 27.6 20.8 2.4
Source: Thanachart estimatesNote: * New additionFor BTS, financial year ends in March.
Based on 9 October 2014 closing prices
Foreigners Still Havent Come Back
(100)(50)
050
100150200250
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
(Bt bn)
Source: SET
Not Too High PEs At 1,750 Target
16.0 15.613.8 13.7
57
911131517
19
1,550 SET current 1,750 SET target2015
(x) Current year PE 1-yr forward PE
Source: Thanachart estimates
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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
THANACHARTSECURITIES 3
Infrastructure Sector Overweight News Update
Saksid Phadthananarak | Email: saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th
Mass transit projects make progress
Four mass transit lines are in line for cabinet approval.
The bidding should be in late 2014 or early 2015.
BTS could benefit via direct negotiations for the O&M contracts.
Maintain Overweight with STEC and BTS our top picks.
Deputy permanent secretary for transport Soithip Trisuddhi disclosed details at a meeting to monitor the
progress of mass transit projects as follows:
1) The plans for the Yellow Line (Bt55.9bn), Pink Line (Bt58.2bn) and Orange Line (Bt101bn) projects
should be submitted to receive cabinet approval by end 2014.
2) The Transport Ministry also plans to ask for approval from the cabinet to launch the bidding for the
construction of the Airport Rail Link extension (Bt31.1bn) project by end 2014.
3) For the Green Line extension project, the Transport Ministrys policy is to let the State Railway of
Thailand (SRT) invest in civil construction work. For the O&M contract, the ministry will let the SRT
negotiate with BTS to run the project as this method offers more benefits for passengers due to: 1)
lower investment costs from sharing the existing depot, 2) lower operating costs due to the same
operator, 3) and more comfort for passengers as they dont need to change trains.
Progress with the mass transit projects is good news for stocks in the infrastructure sector. There are
two direct players: contractors and project operators.
Contractors should be the primary beneficiary from the governments upcoming massive
construction work as there are only a few qualified contractors able to bid for the governmentslarge-scale projects. We reiterate our BUY calls on STEC with a TP of Bt30.0/share and CK with a
TP of Bt31.0/share.
Project operators should get later but safer benefits with recurring income. We like BTS. TheTransport Ministrys policy to directly negotiate with BTS should also be good news for the
company. We already assume BTS wins the O&M contracts for the South and North Green Line
extensions. We reiterate our BUY call on BTS with a TP of Bt11.5.
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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
THANACHARTSECURITIES 4
PTT Exploration &Production Pcl (PTTEP TB)- BUY Earnings Preview
Supanna Suwankird | Email: supanna.suw@thanachartsec.co.th
3Q14F net profit to fall 25% q-q
We forecast PTTEP to post a 25% q-q drop in net profit in 3Q14
dragged by a tapering off of ASP and huge dry-well write-offs.
We expect profits to stay weak as a result of falling gas prices.
Consequently, we see downside to our 2014-16 earnings forecasts.
We project PTTEP to post net earnings of Bt13,620m in 3Q14 (versusBt18.2bn in 2Q14 and Bt17.8bn in 3Q13). If we strip out our forex loss
estimate, we project its normalized earnings to check in at Bt13,200m,
implying a decline of 15% q-q and 31% y-y.
The weak performance should mainly be due to a: 1) a 3-4% fall in ASPcaused by a sharp drop in oil prices, and 2) huge expenses of a combined
US$100m from dry well write-offs (around US$40m from Kenya and US$70m
from Australia-based Maple East)..
Overall volume should be up by 2% mainly due to the debut operation of theMyanmar-based Zawtika gas field but we dont see this helping the bottom
line. Note that there were annual maintenance shutdowns of around seven
days at Bongkot South, Contract-4 and VN 16-1, and 21 days at Montara.
PTTEP may have made a gain from oil price hedging of US$25m. But thebenefit looks set to be offset by forex losses of around US$25m-30m, mainly
from A$500m in principal debt. Despite it no longer operating the Kai Kos
Dehseh (KKD) oil sands project after the assets were swapped with Statoil,
PTTEP is still managing the A$ debt.
Looking forward to 4Q14, there should be 2% q-q volume growth as Zawtikashould have run for a full quarter while there will likely be some shutdowns at
some other fields. However, we expect ASP to drop further from 3Q14 due to
gas prices being adjusted down at most key fields while we dont expect oil
prices to stay in the doldrums until year end. There should also be some dry
well write-off expenses in 4Q14. We believe our earnings forecasts for 2014-
16 look on the high side.
Key Valuations
Y/E Dec (Bt m) 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F
Revenue 224,973 267,305 280,973 270,812
Net profit 56,155 66,406 71,472 71,618
Norm net profit 59,238 67,136 71,472 71,618
Norm EPS (Bt) 14.9 16.9 18.0 18.0
Norm EPS gr (%) (16.9) 13.3 6.5 0.2
Norm PE (x) 10.2 9.0 8.4 8.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 3.9 3.7 3.9
P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
Div. yield (%) 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.7
ROE (%) 16.6 16.6 16.0 14.6
Net D/E (%) 14.2 14.5 12.6 15.9
Source: Thanachart estimates
Stock Data
Closing price (Bt) 152.00
Target price (Bt) 200.00
Market cap (US$ m) 21,329
Avg daily turnover (US$ m) 25.3
12M H/L price (Bt) 174.00/148.00
Price Performance
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
130
140
150
160
170
180
Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul -14 Oc t-14
(%)(Bt) PTT Exploration & Production
Rel to SET Index
Source: Bloomberg
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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
THANACHARTSECURITIES 5
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Pcl (RATCH TB) - BUY News Update
Supanna Suwankird | Email: supanna.suw@thanachartsec.co.th
Inks MOU with Myanmar to develop power plant
RATCH signs an MOU to develop the 2.6GW Myeik power plant.
RATCH with three partners estimates the investment at US$5.3bn.
According to the news, COD is expected in 2020.
Myeik would add value; Hongsa would boost short-term earnings.
According to the Thai press, RATCH has signed an MOU with theDepartment of Hydropower Planning of Myanmar to develop a combined
2.6GW coal-fired power project in Myeik. The plant would use clean coal
technology with an investment cost of US$5.3bn (or US$2m/MW). The
project is targeted for operation in 2020. RATCH has joined hands with three
other partners: Blue Energy and Environment, Vantage Co. Ltd (Myanmar),and Kyaw Phyo Company Limited (Myanmar). The project has gone through
public hearings with residents reportedly receptive.
This is good news in our view.
Assuming RATCH takes a 25% stake in the project, the investment wouldadd 10% to total capacity in hand (or 12% of total current operational
capacity)
Note that the project is to reportedly sell 600MW of capacity to Myanmar withthe remaining 2GW to Thailand. This is under the Power Imports from
Neighboring Countries scheme which is another type of IPP scheme.
We see the scheme as more positive than the IPP one in the sense that: 1)the project can go to tariff negotiation with EGAT when it is ready while for an
IPP this happens when the Thai government announces tendered capacity,
and 2) the project may obtain higher return due to no competition (only
convincing that the proposed tariff is lower than EGATs investment by itself)
as opposed to the fierce competition in the IPP bid case.
We have yet to incorporate the project into our valuation for RATCH thoughwe roughly estimate it would add Bt8.7/RATCH share assuming it
commences operation in 2020.
RATCH remains our top pick in the conventional big cap sub-sector giventhat the company offers a short-term catalyst from strong earnings in 2015-
16F as its 40%-owned Hongsa Power has started up; and more capacity
expansion potential in Myanmar, apart from the Myeik project.
Key valuation
Y/E Dec (Bt m) 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Revenue 50,612 49,302 48,422 47,835
Net profit 6,187 7,055 6,969 8,108
Norm net profit 5,393 5,990 6,969 8,108
Norm EPS (Bt) 3.7 4.1 4.8 5.6
Norm EPS gr (%) 2.6 11.1 16.3 16.3
Norm PE (x) 16.5 14.8 12.7 11.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 13.7 16.0 17.2
P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
Div. yield (%) 3.7 4.4 4.3 5.0
ROE (%) 10.0 10.0 10.5 11.6
Net D/E (%) 27.1 23.9 31.1 26.5
Source: Thanachart estimates
Stock Data
Closing price (Bt) 61.25
Target price (Bt) 67.00
Market cap (US$ m) 2,739
Avg daily turnover (US$ m) 1.4
12M H/L price (Bt) 60.25/46.25
Price Performance
(4)(2)0246810
12
40
45
50
55
60
65
Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14
(%)(Bt) Ratchaburi Electricity
Rel to SET Index
Source: Bloomberg
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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
THANACHARTSECURITIES 6
NEWS CLIPPING
Impeach Yingluck, NACC says : The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has decided to
petition the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) to impeach former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra,
who is accused of negligence for failing to stop corruption and losses in her government's rice-pledging
scheme.
Bangkok Post
Ministry pins hopes on stimulus : The Finance Ministry forecasts economic growth will come in at
1.7% this year but is pinning its hopes on stimulus measures bumping up the figure to 2%.
Bangkok Post
Pridiyathorn says rubber help coming : Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula says he has
prepared measures to tackle tumbling rubber prices but will have to consult the prime minister before
revealing them.
Bangkok Post
Inheritance tax a certainty: Ministry : Real estate tax, rise in vat, keeping 20% corporate income tax
among other moves considered. The Finance Ministry yesterday confirmed that this government would
launch a tax on inheritances but is still pondering a real-estate tax, raising the value-added tax next year
and keeping the corporate income tax at 20 per cent
The Nation
Foreigners urged to capitalise on Thai turnaround : Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn
Trairatvorakul assured foreign investors of the financial authorities' readiness to cope with market
volatility, showing his confidence that the economy would show higher growth rate on the back of greater
political stability.
The Nation
Few SMEs have capacity for business abroad : Survey finds only 0.4% could venture across borders
as AEC approaches. Most Thai small and medium-sized enterprises have the competency to do
business in their local markets, but fewer than 1 per cent have ability to do business outside the country,
according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce(UTCC).
The Nation
Shippers urge consistent rice stock sales : The government is being urged to continue selling its rice
stocks, but the amount to be put up for auction should be limited to mute any effect on the rice prices for
the coming harvest.
Bangkok Post
GPF hopes to raise ceiling for investment in foreign assets : The Government Pension Fund (GPF)
is prepared to take more risks to gain higher returns by gradually increasing its investment ceiling for
foreign assets, especially equities, from 25 per cent to 35 per cent.
The Nation
Channel 3 unsure of simulcast rules : Problems may arise from unclear regulations after the National
Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) approves Channel 3's simulcast proposal.
Bangkok Post
Panel to weigh simulcast plan : Hopes high of resolving row over channel 3 ban from cable/satellite.
The national broadcasting committee will consider BEC-Multimedia's new TV programming today, which
will feature a plan to use its digital platform to simulcast the analog programmes of its affiliate Bangkok
Entertainment Co's Channel 3.
The Nation
Thai Solar Energy firm on IPO, listing amid shareholders' dispute : Thai Solar Energy Plc insists it
will go ahead with its initial public offering and listing on the Market for Alternative Investment by the end
of this month as planned, despite the legal dispute between its major shareholder Catherine Malinont
and former shareholders.
The Nation
Unilever Thailand budgets Bt8 bn for building expansion over 3 years : Unilever Thailand has
earmarked Bt8 billion over three years to expand its infrastructure, including a new headquarters,
warehouse and cold-storage facility.
The Nation
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THANACHARTSECURITIES 7
Market data Close %
SET Index 1,560.6 17.2 1.1%
SET50 Index 1,041.7 12.5 1.2%
SET100 Index 2,307.4 28.1 1.2%
MAI Index 672.7 7.7 1.2%
Economic data Current -1M -3M
Saving Rate (%) 0.50 0.50 0.50
Fixed Deposit - 3M (%) 1.13 1.13 1.13
Fixed Deposit - 1Y (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75
Govt Bond Yield 1Y (%) 2.11 2.11 2.13
Govt Bond Yield 10Y (%) 3.38 3.57 3.68
Treasury Yield 10Y (%) 2.31 2.61 2.53
Policy Rate (%) 2.00 2.00 2.00
VIX Index 18.76 13.31 11.00
TED Spread (%) 0.22 0.22 0.22
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Thai BMA
SET Forward PE Band
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014F
2016F
(index)
7x
10x
13x
17x
21x25x
SET PE Discount to MSCI Asia x JP
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-03 Sep-06 May-10 Jan-14
(x)
+2 STD = 5.9x
+1 STD = 3x
Average = 0.1x
-1 STD = -2.8x
-2 STD = -5.7x
Source: Bloomberg
PRICE CHANGE - MOST ACTIVE
Change 1 Day (%) Change 1 Week (%)
(2) 0 2 4 6
PTTEP
AOT
BBL
SIRI
PTT
KTB
KBANK
ADVANC
BTS
TRUE
(10) (5) 0 5 10
AOT
BBL
TTA
TRUE
KTB
KBANK
ADVANC
CPALL
PTT
BTS
Change 1Month (%) Change Year-To-Date (%)
(15) (10) (5) 0 5 10
TTA
BBL
JAS
TRUE
ITD
KBANK
KTB
INTUCH
PTT
ADVANC
(20) 0 20 40 60 80
JAS
INTUCH
BBL
ADVANC
SCB
PTT
AOT
KTB
KBANK
TRUE
SECTOR CHANGE
Change 1 Day (%) Change 1 Week (%)
(1) 0 1 2 3
AUTO
ETRON
FOOD
PETRO
CONMAT
TRANS
BANK
ENERG
SET
COMM
MEDIA
HELTH
PROP
ICT
(2) (1) 0 1 2
TRANS
CONMAT
ETRON
BANK
PETRO
COMM
HELTH
SET
MEDIA
ENERG
PROP
FOOD
AUTO
ICT
Change 1 Month (%) Change Year-To-Date (%)
(10) (5) 0 5
PETRO
COMM
AUTO
BANK
CONMAT
TRANS
ETRON
SET
HELTH
ENERG
PROP
FOOD
ICT
MEDIA
(20) 0 20 40 60
PETRO
MEDIA
COMM
ENERG
CONMAT
FOOD
ICT
AUTO
SET
ETRON
TRANS
BANK
PROP
HELTH
Source: Bloomberg
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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
THANACHARTSECURITIES 8
REGIONAL MARKET PERFORMANCE
Change 1 Day (%) Change 1 Week (%)
(3) (2) (1) 0 1 2
S&P500
Nasdaq
Dow Jones
Nikkei
S.Korea
Taiwan
Philippines
China
Malaysia
Indonesia
MSCI Asia x J P
Singapore
Thailand
Hang Seng
India
(2) (1) 0 1 2 3
S.Korea
Nasdaq
Nikkei
S&P500
Philippines
Malaysia
Dow Jones
Thailand
Singapore
Indonesia
Taiwan
India
MSCI Asia x J P
China
Hang Seng
Change 1 Month (%) Change Year-To-Date (%)
(6 ) (4 ) (2 ) 0 2 4
MSCI Asia x JP
Hang Seng
Nasdaq
Taiwan
S.Korea
S&P500
Indonesia
Dow Jones
Singapore
Malaysia
Nikkei
India
Thailand
Philippines
China
(1 0) 0 10 20 30
Nikkei
S.Korea
Malaysia
Dow Jones
Hang Se ng
MSCI Asia x JP
Singapore
Taiwan
S&P500
Nasdaq
China
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
India
Source: Bloomberg
REGIONAL FUND FLOWS
Change 1 Day (-1D)
45
26
0 00
0
(20)(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
2030
40
50
Thailand As ia-6 India Phil ip. Korea Taiwan Indonesia
(US$ m)
Change 1 Week (-1W)
88
(41)(187) (264)
(620)
(1,050)
(2,074)(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
India Thailan d Phil ip. Indone sia Taiwan Kor ea Asia-6
(US$ m)
Change 1 Month (-1M)
992615
(33)
(944)
(1,496)
(2,413)
(3,279)(3,500)(3,000)(2,500)(2,000)(1,500)(1,000)
(500)0
5001,000
1,500
India Thailand Philip. Indonesia Korea Taiwan Asia-6
(US$ m)
Change Year-To-Date (YTD)
34,721
13,902
9,4386,410
3,9641,136
(129)(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
Asia-6 India Taiwan Korea Indonesia Phil ip. Thailan d
(US$ m)
Source: Bloomberg
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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
THANACHARTSECURITIES 9
General Disclaimers And Disclosures:
This report is prepared and issued by Thanachart Securities Public Company Limited (TNS) as a resource only for clients of TNS,
Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited (TCAP) and its group companies. Copyright Thanachart Securities Public Company
Limited. All rights reserved. The report may not be reproduced in whole or in part or delivered to other persons without our written
consent.
This report is prepared by analysts who are employed by the research department of TNS. While the information is from sources
believed to be reliable, neither the information nor the forecasts shall be taken as a representation or warranty for which TNS or
TCAP or its group companies or any of their employees incur any responsibility. This report is provided to you for informational
purposes only and it is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer or an invitation to make an offer to sell or buy any securities.
Neither TNS, TCAP nor its group companies accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use
of this report or its contents.
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable. However, TNS,
TCAP and its group companies make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness.
Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. The use of any information, forecasts and opinions contained in
this report shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
TNS, TCAP and its group companies perform and seek to perform business with companies covered in this report. TNS, TCAP, its
group companies, their employees and directors may have positions and financial interest in securities mentioned in this report. TNS,
TCAP or its group companies may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or
other business from, any entity mentioned in this report. Therefore, investors should be aware of conflict of interest that may affect the
objectivity of this report.
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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE Friday, October 10, 2014
THANACHART SECURITIES 10
Recommendation Structure:
Recommendations are based on absolute upside or downside, which is the difference between the target price and the current
market price. If the upside is 10% or more, the recommendation is BUY. If the downside is 10% or more, the recommendation is
SELL. For stocks where the upside or downside is less than 10%, the recommendation is HOLD. Unless otherwise specified, these
recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch
between upside/downside for a stock based on the market price and the formal recommendation.
For sectors, we look at two areas, ie, the sector outlook and the sector weighting. For the sector outlook, an arrow pointing up, or the
word Positive, is used when we see the industry trend improving. An arrow pointing down, or the word Negative, is used when we
see the industry trend deteriorating. A double-tipped horizontal arrow, or the word Unchanged, is used when the industry trend does
not look as if it will alter. The industry trend view is our top-down perspective on the industry rather than a bottom-up interpretation
from the stocks we cover. An Overweight sector weighting is used when we have BUYs on majority of the stocks under our
coverage by market cap. Underweight is used when we have SELLs on majority of the stocks we cover by market cap. Neutral is
used when there are relatively equal weightings of BUYs and SELLs.
Thanachart Securities Pcl.
Research Team
28 Floor, Siam Tower Unit A1
989 Rama 1, Pathumwan Road, Bangkok 10330
Tel: 662 - 617 4900
Pimpaka Nichgaroon, CFA
Head of ResearchEconomics & Strategy
pimpaka.nic@thanachartsec.co.th
Supanna Suwankird
Energy, Utilities
supanna.suw@thanachartsec.co.th
Siriporn Arunothai
Ad Hoc Research, Healthcare
siriporn.aru@thanachartsec.co.th
Sarachada Sornsong
Banks, Telecom
sarachada.sor@thanachartsec.co.th
Saksid Phadthananarak
Construction, Transportation
saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th
Noppadol Pririyawut
Senior Technical Analyst
noppadol.pri@thanachartsec.co.th
Phannarai Tiyapittayarut
Property, Retail
phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th
Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Food, Media, Hotel
kalvalee.tho@thanachartsec.co.th
Adisak Phupiphathirungul, CFA
Retail Market Strategy
adisak.phu@thanachartsec.co.th
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