urbanism in the age of climate change

China’s Development ChallengeChina’s Development Challenge

USA Development ChallengeUSA Development Challenge

86%

48%

37%

12%11%

42%

52%

65%

03%10% 11%

22%

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

UnitedStates France Sweden China

Auto Walk/Bike Transit

美国 法国 瑞典 中国

Transportation Mode By Country

Portland Metro 2040

Portland Metro Region VMT

National Average

Portland Region

Source: State Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS); Federal Highway Administration, USDOT

Daily VMT in the Portland region declined 11% from 1996 to 2002, compared to a 6% increasenationally

Vision California

%%

Population change, 2006-2035

Jobs change, 2006-2035

31%41%

26%60%

86%102%

30%40%

49%61%

29%-

29%-

53%-

65%- 60%71%

24%40%

28%47%16%27%

Scenarios and Metrics

Trend Blueprints

1,6291,325

2,076

-1,000

-500

00

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Multifamily Townhouse Small Lot Large Lot

Tho

usan

ds

New Units Needed by 2035

-1,650

California Housing Demand 2035

Four Largest MPOs Only – SCAG, SANDAG, MTC, SACOG

Preliminary Do Not

Duplicate

Source: AC Nelson. The Shape of Metropolitan California in the 21st Century: Outlook to 2020 and 2035

5%25%

70%

35%

55%

10%

Urban Compact Standard

Growing Smart

Two California Futures

Business As Usual

Urban Infill - Oakland Uptown

Same

Compact Development - Stapleton

same

Standard Suburban

45%30%

20%23%

10%14%

25% 33%

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Housing Product Mix2050 Total

Large Lot

Small Lot

Attached

Multifamily

53%65%

Land Consumed For New Growth to 2050 (mi2)

More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined

5,600

1,850

Business As Usual Growing Smart

3,750 square miles saved

A1 v C1/C2

$165.4

$133.4

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Dol

lars

Bill

ions

Infrastructure Cost for New Growth Capital Costs for New Growth to 2050

$4,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $710 Million/Year

$32 Billion Saved*

Flickr: sl-engineer *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and parks & recreation

A1 v C1/C2

$84.9

$69.9

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Dol

lars

Bill

ions

O&M Costs for New Growth Engineering & Public Works Costs for New Growth to 2050

$15 Billion Saved : $334 Million Per Year

$15 Billion Saved

Flickr: watchlooksee *Includes City General Fund engineering and public works functions

A1 v C1/C2

$744.2

$864.5

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Dol

lars

Bill

ions

Revenues from New Growth City Tax and Fee Revenue from New Growth to 2050

$2.7 Billion/Year in Additional Revenue to Cities

$120 Billion More *

www.livinginplainfield.com *Includes City revenues from Vehicle License Fees, Property Tax, and Sales Tax

A1 v C1/C2

74 Quad Btu

58 Quad Btu

Business As Usual Growing Smart

BTU

Qua

drill

ion

Building Energy Cumulative to 2050

Would Power ALL Homes in California for 20 Years

15 Quadrillion BTUs Saved

Flickr: arbyreed

A1 v C2

328

250

Business As Usual Growing SmartA

cre

Feet

Mill

ions

Residential Water Use Cumulative to 2050

78 Million Acre Feet

Saved

Water Savings Could Fill the San Francisco Bay 15 Times

A1 v C2

27,557

17,041

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Household in 2050

10,500 Fewer Miles Per Household

Flickr: trash-photography

A1 v C1/C2

750

473

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Gal

lons

Bill

ions

Auto Fuel Consumed Cumulative to 2050

Equivalent to more than 3 years of oil imports to the US

277 Billion Gallons Saved

A1 v C2

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Home Energy &WaterAuto Fuel +Ownership

Annual Household Costs Per Household Annual in 2050

$10,500 Savings Per Household in 2050

Flickr: Diablo_Solar

$ 21,000

$ 10,500

A1 v C2

Business As Usual Growing Smart

Respiratory Health CostsTotal Annual in 2035

Saves $1.66 billion annually by 2035

Flickr: Lance Page

$1.66 billess than BAU

A1 v C1/C2

Based on Analysis of Vision CA Results by TIAX, LLC

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual in 2050

Emissions offset by 90,000 square miles of trees in a year. A forest covering more than1/2 of California.

156

28

117

55

Business AsUsual

Growing Smart

Passenger Vehicles Buildings

191 MMT Reduced/Year

New York Times

www.exuberance.com

A1 v C2

China’s Development ChallengeChina’s Development Challenge

Mode Split by Neighborhood Type

建设步行优先的邻里社区Develop neighborhoods that promote walking

1

Chongqing, China

优先发展自行车网络Prioritize bicycle networks 2

Bike-prioritized Intersection

创建密集的街道网络Create dense networks of streets and paths

3

Recommended: Dense networks of streets and paths建议：创建密集的街道网络

Discouraged: Arterial-dominant street network不提倡：宽马路为主的干道网络

支持高质量的公共交通服务Support high-quality transit

4

Guangzhou

建设多功能混合的 邻里社区Zone for mixed-use neighborhoods5

将土地开发强度和公共交通承载力相匹配Match density to transit capacity

6

In Curitiba, Brazil, high-rise development is focused within 200 meters of mass transit lines. 在巴西的库里提巴, 高层建筑距离大众公交线路不会超过200米。

In Guangzhou, density is focused around the BRT corridor. The system’s capacity matches commute-hour transit demand.在广州, 捷运走廊附近的密度较集中。系统能力和通勤时间的运输需求相匹配。

确保紧凑型发展，提倡短程通勤Create compact regions with short commutes

7

Kunming Regional Growth昆明区域发展

规范停车和道路使用，增加出行便利性Increase mobility by regulating parking and road use

8

Cities may choose to charge tolls for use of overloaded roads.城市可对拥堵路段征收过路费。

Singapore’s Electronic Road Pricing system has cut congestion and raised money for public transit and other uses.新加坡的电子道路收费系统可减轻拥堵情况

Chongqing

Study Area

Disperse Traffic on One-Way Couplets

Add Car-Free Streets

Add Local Streets

Superblocks超大街区

通过单向二分路分散交通流

添加非机动车线路

添加辅路

Circulation and StreetsDesign Challenge设计挑战

YUELAI ECOLOGICAL CITY悦来生态城

Current and Proposed Plan Comparison

Yuelai : Superblock悦来生态城：超大街区

Yuelai : Urban Network悦来生态城：城市格网

现有规划与新版规划对比

Work with the Site’s Natural Features结合场地自然特色

San Gimignano, Italy意大利 圣吉米纳诺

Open Space

悦来生态城市Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1

开放空间

Create a Walkable and Bikeable Community营造适宜步行与自行车的社区

Create WalkableStreet Networks

Auto‐free Street

营造适宜步行的街道网络

步行街/慢行道

Create WalkableStreet Networks

Hillside PedestrianSystem

营造适宜步行的街道网络

坡地步行系统

Ellipse Gateway

悦来生态城市Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1

椭圆门户广场

Yuelai Urban Network Comparison

Yuelai : Superblock悦来生态城：超大街区

Yuelai : Urban Network悦来生态城：城市格网