usi 13 jun 2013 1. sequence of presentation introduction chinese capabilities in space indian...

USI 13 JUN 2013 1

SEQUENCE OF PRESENTATION

INTRODUCTIONCHINESE CAPABILITIES IN SPACEINDIAN VULNERABILITIESOPTIONS FOR INDIAINDIAN ASAT : THE NECESSITYINDIAN ASAT : THE URGENCYINDIAN SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURECONCLUSION

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POWER TRANSITION THEORY

• THE POWER TRANSITION THEORY WAS PROPOUNDED BY AFK ORGANSKI IN HIS BOOK “WORLD POLITICS” PUBLISHED IN 1958

• IT IS A THEORY ABOUT THE CYCLICAL NATURE OF WAR, IN RELATION TO POWER IN THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

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POWER TRANSITION THEORYBY AFK ORGANSKI

“AN EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES BETWEEN CONTENDING GROUPS OF STATES IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF WAR; PEACE IS PRESERVED BEST WHEN THERE IS AN IMBALANCE OF NATIONAL CAPABILITIES BETWEEN DISADVANTAGED AND ADVANTAGED NATIONS; THE AGGRESSOR WILL COME FROM A SMALL GROUP OF DISSATISFIED STRONG COUNTRIES; AND IT IS THE WEAKER, RATHER THAN THE STRONGER; POWER THAT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE AGGRESSOR”.

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CHINA’S ASSERTIVE ENGAGEMENT IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER

HU JINTAOPRESIDENT PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

“THE FUTURE AND DESTINY OF CONTEMPORARY CHINA IS MORE AND MORE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE FUTURE AND DESTINY OF THE WORLD. CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE DONE WITHOUT THE WORLD, AND THE WORLD’S DEVELOPMENT NEEDS CHINA.”

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CHINA’S PEACEFUL RISE : THE IMPACT

• ECONOMICALLY STRONG (MORE THAN

3 TRILLION $ FOREIGN RESERVE)• FRANTIC PACE OF MODERNISATION OF PLA• NUCLEAR POWER (WITH NO EMBARGO – NFU

CLAUSE MISSING FROM WHITE PAPER 2013)• ASAT TESTS• MODERNISATION OF SUBMARINE FLEET• INDUCTION OF STEALTH AIRCRAFTS• INDUCTION OF AIRCRAFT CARRIER LIAONING• MILITARY BUILD UP IN ‘TAR’ AGAINT INDIA• SHIFTING CORE INTERESTS

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THE SHIFTING PIVOT

• THE PEACEFUL RISE OF CHINA– ECONOMIC– TECHNOLOGICAL– MILITARY

• WORLD-WIDE ECONOMIC REACH• RETURN OF ‘MIDDLE KINGDOM’ SYNDROME• THE “PACIFIC PIVOT”• COUNTER-BALANCING “ PACIFIC PIVOT ”• THE RESULTANT TURBULENCE IN ASIA

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THE TURBULENCE IN ASIA

• REGION WITH INTENSE ACTIVITY– ECONOMIC– MILITARY– DIPLOMATIC

• REGION WITH INTENSE COMPETITION• COMPETITION LEADING TO CONFRONTATION : CHINA’S

HEGEMONY– CHINA vs JAPAN MARITIME– CHINA vs VIETNAM DIAOYU/SENKAKU– CHINA vs PHILLIPINES SCARBOROUGH SHOAL – CHINA vs BRUNEI SPRATLY ISLANDS– CHINA vs MALAYSIA PARACEL ISLANDS– CHINA vs TAIWAN – CHINA VS INDIA TERRITORIAL

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SENKAKU/DIAOYU

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THE SHOW OF STRENGTH

OVERSENKAKU / DIAOYU

“YOU'VE CROSSED THE BORDER, PLEASE GO BACK”

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THE FOUR TENT STRATEGY

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CHINESE PHILOSPHY OF MODERN WAR

‘WINNING BEFORE FIGHTING’

GAINING INFORMATION ADVANTAGE IN WAR THROUGH APPLICATION OF

SPACE TECHNOLOGIES

C4I2SR 13

“THE SPACE OF OPERATIONS BECOMES ALL-DIMENSIONAL AND MILITARY ACTION WILL BE CONDUCTED SIMULTANEOUSLY IN MANY FIELDS, ON LAND, IN THE AIR, IN OUTER SPACE AND IN THE ELECTRONIC FIELD.”

General Fu Quanyou

Chief of General Staff

People’s Liberation Army

20 Feb 1999

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CHINESE MILITARY CAPABILITIES

IN

SPACE

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ASAT TESTS BY CHINA

• ASAT TEST OF 2007• MID COURSE INTERCEPTION TEST IN 2010 WHICH

WAS RE-VALIDATION OF ASAT TEST• REUTERS REPORTED ON 13 MAY 2013 “CHINA FIRES

ROCKET CAPABLE OF TARGETING SATELLITES”– ROCKET LIFTED OFF FROM THE XICHANG SATELLITE

LAUNCH CENTER AND REACHED A 6,200-MILE ALTITUDE, THE HIGHEST CHINESE SUBORBITAL FLIGHT IN 37 YEARS, SAID JONATHAN MCDOWELL OF THE HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CENTER FOR ASTROPHYSICS.

– CAPABLE OF DELIVERING AN ASAT WEAPON

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• JONATHAN MCDOWELL FURTHER STATED THAT

“THIS CHINESE ROCKET WAS A GROUND-BASED MISSILE THAT WE BELIEVE WOULD BE THEIR FIRST TEST OF AN INTERCEPTOR THAT WOULD BE DESIGNED TO GO AFTER A SATELLITE THAT'S ACTUALLY ON ORBIT”

• CAPABILITY TO TARGET SATELLITES EVEN IN MEO / HEO

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CHINESE SPACE WEAPONS PROGRAMMES

• ASAT LASERS• CO-ORBITAL ASAT• BALLISTIC MISSILE• MANIPULATION OF SATELLITE• NETWORK ATTACK• BROAD SPECTRUM AND NARROW

FREQUENCY JAMMING OF SATELLITE• SPACE MINING• EMP ASAT• TIANGONG-1 SPACE SHIP – UTILITY FOR A

MILITARY BASE18

CO-ORBITAL ASAT : BX-1 MICRO-SATELLITE ABOARD SHENZHOU -7

.

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IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

STRATEGIC

• THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY

• LIKELIHOOD OF ASIAN SPACE RACE

TACTICAL

• THREAT TO SPACE ASSETS20

• SPACE THEREFORE, WHETHER WE REALIZE IT OR NOT, HAS STARTED TO PLAY AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT ROLE IN MILITARY PLANNING & OPERATIONS

• THE ULTIMATE “ HIGH GROUND ”

• THE RMA IN 21 ST CENTURY

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OPTIONS FOR INDIA

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MILITARISATION OF SPACE

THE INDIAN PERSPECTIVE– ISR – SECURE MILITARY COMMUNICATION– EARLY WARNING – NAVIGATION AND POSITIONING– TARGETING FOR PRECISION WEAPONS– SURVEYING AND MAPPING FOR MIL OPS– RADAR IMAGING FOR SURVEILLANCE– METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR

TACTICAL OPERATIONS

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WHY WEAPONISATION ?

• INDIAN SPACE PROGRAMME HAS BEEN MAINLY FOR DEVELOPING CIVILIAN SPACE APPLICATIONS

• HOWEVER CHINA’S AGGRESSIVE POSTURING AGAINST INDIA NECESSITATES REVIEW OF SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF OUR SPACE ASSETS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SPACE WEAPONS TO PROTECT THEM

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• CHINA WORKING ON ‘INFORMATIONALISED WARFARE’

• DEPENDENCY ON SATELLITE BASED TECHNOLOGIES

• HENCE INDIAN ASAT WILL BE THE MOST POTENT WEAPON FOR DETERRENCE AGAINST CHINA

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IN JANUARY 2010, DR SARASWAT THE HEAD OF DRDO TOLD REPORTERS, “INDIA IS PUTTING TOGETHER BUILDING BLOCKS OF TECHNOLOGY THAT COULD BE USED TO NEUTRALIZE ENEMY SATELLITES. WE ARE WORKING TO ENSURE SPACE SECURITY AND PROTECT OUR SATELLITES. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE ALSO WORKING ON HOW TO DENY THE ENEMY ACCESS TO ITS SPACE ASSETS.”

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THE CASE FOR INDIAN ASAT

WEAPON

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NECESSARY

AND

URGENT

NECESSITY

• IMPENDING CHINESE THREAT – NECESSITATES A CREDIBLE DETERRENCE

• WEAPONISATION IS INESCAPABLE FOR INDIA TOWARDS SECURING ITS NATIONAL INTEREST

• ASAT WEAPONS : THE ONLY WAY AHEAD FOR INDIA TO GAIN ASYMETRIC ADVANTAGE OVER CHINA

• AVAILABILITY OF ASAT TECH AGNI – V (FOR ASAT ROLE) SATELLITES (FOR CO-ORBITAL BOMBARDMENT)

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AGNI – V : A GAME CHANGER FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INDIAN ASAT

• IN THE WORDS OF DR VK SARASWAT, DG DRDO :

“AGNI-V’S LAUNCH HAS USHERED IN FANTASTIC OPPURTUNITIES IN BUILDING ASAT WEAPONS AND LAUNCHING NANO / MICRO SATELLITES ON DEMAND.”

• ASAT WOULD INCLUDE MARRYING AGNI-V’S PROPULSION SYSTEM WITH THE KILL VEHICLE (AAD) OF THE OF THE SUCCESSFUL II-TIER BMD SYSTEM

• AN ASAT IS REQUIRES • TO REACH AN ALTITUDE OF 800 KM -- AGNI-V WILL GIVE THE

BOOSTING CAPABILITY

• “KILL VEHICLE”-- AAD WITH ADVANCE SEEKERS, WILL BE ABLE TO HOME INTO THE TARGET SATELLITE

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• DR SARASWAT- INDIA WILL NOT TEST ASAT CAPABILITY THROUGH DESTRUCTION OF A SAT TO AVOID SPACE DEBRIS

• ASAT CAPABILITY WOULD BE FINE TUNED THROUGH SIMULATED ELECTRONIC TESTS

• VISIBLE DETRRENCE IS A CREDIBLE DETERRENCE

• LEO ASAT TEST BY INDIA : A FEASIBLE OPTION

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URGENCY FOR WEAPONISATION OF SPACE BY INDIA

• IN 2008 EU PROPOSED CoC FOR OUTER SPACE• IN JUN 2010 US INDICATED PROPOSING A NEW

TREATY FOR RESTRICTIONS ON SPACE BASED WEAPONS

• EU SPONSORED CoC IN 2012 (REVIEW) • CoC IS BEING DEBATED IN UN BY GGE AND

LIKELY TO BE RATIFIED IN 2013-14• CoC IS SEEN AS A PRECURSOR FOR A

RESTRICTIVE REGIME FOR ASAT WEAPONS• CASE ANALOGOUS TO NPT

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• THUS A NEW RESTRICTIVE REGIME ON SPACE WEAPONS IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW

• FORECLOSE INDIA’S OPTION FOR TESTING ASAT CAPABILTY

• A CASE SIMILAR TO NUCLEAR APARTHIED

• HENCE THE URGENCY

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THE WAY AHEAD

• INDIAN SPACE PROGRAMME NO MATCH TO CHINESE PROGRAMME

• INDIA SHOULD GO IN FOR ASAT TECHNOLOGY FOR A POTENT AND A CREDIBLE DETERRENCE AGAINST CHINA TO GAIN ASSYMETRIC ADVANTAGES

• WORK TOWARDS CREATING AN

“INDIAN SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE”33

INDIAN SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

INDIA’S MILITARY REQUIREMENT

IN SPACE

FOR 21 ST CENTURY34

INDIA’S SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

OFFENSIVE COMPONENT

• KINETIC KILL ENERGY (KKE) ASAT

• CO-ORBITAL ASAT

• LASER ASAT SYSTEM

• CRUISE MISSILES

• IRBM (AGNI V/VI)

• SPACE MINING : SINGLE ROCKET MULTIPLE SATELLITE LAUNCH

(MICRO/NANO/PICO) 35

INDIA’S SPACE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

DEFENSIVE COMPONENT– RISAT FOR SURVEILLANCE– IRNSS FOR PNT– GAGAN FOR AIR SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND

MANAGEMENT– CCI-SAT FOR C4 COMPONENT OF C4ISR– NAVAL SAT FOR INT &TACTICAL COMMN– DCN FOR SECURE COMMN– ROBUST SSA NETWORK– BMD (THREE TIER) FOR AIR DEFENCE

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CONCLUSION

• OFFENCE IS THE BEST DEFENCE

• DEMONSTRATED DETERRENCE IS A CAPABLE DETERRENCE (NECESSITY)

• INDIA’S KKE ASAT : FOR STRATEGIC BALANCE IN ASIAN SPACE (URGENCY)

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INDIA’S

OFFENSIVE SPACE CAPABILITIES WILL ENSURE

A CREDIBLE AND A POTENT

DETERRENCE AGAINST CHINA

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A SECURE AEROSPACE FOR INDIA TO PROTECT ITS NATIONAL INTEREST AND PROPEL ITS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES WAY BEYOND THE 21 ST CENTURY, THEREBY MAKING INDIA

‘A LEADING WORLD POWER’

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THANKS

!!! 40

RISAT-I

• LAUNCED ON 11 APRIL 2012• SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR• 24X7 DAY AND NIGHT• ALL WEATHER CAPABILTY• DAILY ROUTINE OF 14 ORBITS WITH A

REPETITIVE CYCLE OF 25 DAYS• RESOLUTION OF UP TO 1 M • SURVEILLANCE

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DEDICATED NAVAL SATELLITE

• FIRST DEDICATED MILITARY SATELLITE (GSAT-7 OR INSAT-4F)

• COMBINED NAVAL COMSAT AND NAVAL SURVEILLANCE MISSION

• TO COVER A SWATH OF ABOUT 1,000 NAUTICAL MILES OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN

• WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE INDIAN NAVY’S C4ISR CAPABILITY

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• WILLPROVIDE COMMUNICATION NETWORK FOR SEAMLESS FLOW OF INFORMATION

• ISOLATED FROM THE WORLD WIDE WEB (WWW)

• ACCESS DATA GENERATED FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES & ASSETS

• WILL LINK EVERY ASPECT OF MILITARY OPERATION TO A SINGLE POINT OF CONFLUENCE

• WILL GIVE THE THEATRE CDR A WIDE, ACCURATE & HOLISTIC OVERVIEW OF THE BATTLEFIELD SCENARIO

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COMMUNICATION CENTRIC INTELLIGENCE-SAT

CCI-SAT

• FIRST COMMUNICATIONS CENTRIC INTELLIGENCE SATELLITE (CCI-SAT) IS PLANNED FOR LAUNCH IN 2014

• BEING BUILT BY THE DEFENSE ELECTRONIC RESEARCH LABORATORY

• A PART OF A LARGER DEVELOPMENT FOR MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ENHANCEMENT UTILIZING ADVANCED ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS CAPABILITY

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GPS-AIDED GEO-AUGMENTED NAVIGATION (GAGAN)

• THE FIRST STEP TOWARDS INTRODUCTION OF MODERN COMMUNICATION,NAVIGATION, SURVEILLANCE/AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OVER INDIAN AIRSPACE

• INVOLVES ESTABLISHMENT OF– 15 INDIAN REFERENCE STATIONS– 03 INDIAN NAVIGATION LAND UPLINK

STATIONS– 03 INDIAN MISSION CONTROL CENTERS – INSTALLATION OF ALL ASSOCIATED

SOFTWARE AND COMMUNICATION LINKS45

GAGAN

• WILL INCREASE SAFETY BY USING 3 D APPROACH OPERATION WITH COURSE GUIDANCE TO THE RUNWAY

• HIGH POSITION ACCURACIES OVER INDIAN AIRSPACE

• PROVIDES A THREE-METRE ACCURACY• POSITIONAL ACCURACIES WILL BE

SIMULTANEOUSLY AVAILABLE TO 80 CIVILIAN AND MORE THAN 200 NON-CIVILIAN AIRPORTS AND AIRFIELDS PLANNED (EVENTUALLY 500 AIRFIELDS)

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AREA OF COVERAGE : GAGAN

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INDIAN REGIONAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEM (IRNSS)

• REGIONAL NAVIGATION SYSTEM• WOULD PROVIDE TWO SERVICES

– STANDARD POSITIONING SERVICE OPEN FOR CIVILIAN USE

– RESTRICTED SERVICE (ENCRYPTED ONE) ONLY FOR AUTHORISED USERS (MILITARY)

• MISSILE TARGETING COULD BE AN IMPORTANT MILITARY APPLICATION FOR THE CONSTELLATION

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INDIAN REGIONAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEM (IRNSS)

• 07 SATELLITES CONSTELLATION• 03 SATELLITES WILL BE IN GEO OVER THE

INDIAN OCEAN AND 04 IN GSO• ALL 07 SATELLITES WOULD HAVE

CONTINUOUS RADIO VISIBILITY WITH INDIAN CONTROL STATIONS.

• SATELLITE PAYLOADS WOULD CONSIST OF ATOMIC CLOCKS AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT TO GENERATE THE NAVIGATION SIGNALS

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IRNSS ARCHITECTURE

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SPACE SERVEILLANCE NETWORK SATS FOR SSA

• SATS EQUIPPED WITH RADARS– ENSURE LAUNCH DETECTS, TRACKS,

MEASURES AND CATALOGS ORBITING OBJECTS AND SPACE DEBRIS

– IMPROVED ACCURACY– BETTER TIMELINESS– INCREASED SURVEILLANCE COVERAGE

FOR BETTER SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TO SECURE SPACE AS “GLOBAL COMMON”

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DEFENCE COMMUNICATION NETWORK

• SECURE DEFENCE COMN THROUGH DEDICATED COMN SATELLITES

• NETWORK OF NETWORKS (COMN OF ARMY, NAVY AND AF WILL BE LINKED TO FORM A SECURE DEFENCE COMMUNICATION NETWORK)

• FIRST PRIVATE – PUBLIC PARTNERSHIP PROJECT

• 129 ARMY, 162 AF AND 33 NAVAL STATIONS WILL BE LINKED

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MULTI-TIERED MICRO-SAT CONSTELLATON

• LESS VULNERABLE TO ENEMY ATTACK• NO ROOM FOR SINGLE POINT FAILURES• PLACED AT SEVERAL ALTITUDES • WELL DISPERSED• SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF REDUNDANCY• REPLACEMENT AT SHORT NOTICE QUICK

RE-LAUNCH• AFFORDABLE REPLACEMENTS

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NEW PERSPECTIVE

RE-ALIGNMENT OF SPACE ACTIVITIES AND RE-STRUCTURING OF ORGANIZATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH NATIONAL SECURITY

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SUGGESTIONS

• REPRESENTATION OF ARMED FORCES IN THE SPACE COMMISSION

• NEW SPACE DOCTRINE FOR MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

• INTEGRATED SPACE COMMAND• CREATION OF SPACE FORCE FOR

CONDUCT OF SPACE OPERATIONS• TRAINING OF SPACE FORCE PERSONNEL • STRONG TIME BOUND SPACE R&D

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• DEVELOPMENT OF DEMONSTRATION OF INDIAN ASAT CAPABILITY  

• USE OF FOREIGN SATELLITES AS DEFENSIVE STRATEGY

• ELECTRONIC WARFARE (EW) AND CYBER ATTACK.

• QUICK LAUNCH / MOBILE LAUNCH CAPABILITY.

• SPACE SECURITY TREATY FOR NON-OFFENSIVE USE OF SPACE.

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