william edson suny at albany. new results for fit: signal fraction: 0.664442±0.0418289 chi2:...
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ttbar τ + jets:Update on QCD Estimation
William EdsonSUNY at Albany
Only MET and Dijet Mass Fit Selection
New Results for Fit: Signal Fraction:
0.664442±0.0418289 Chi2: 29.953 Meas. Used: 31 σ: 170.884±10.7578
New Corrected Results: Signal Fraction:
0.685204± 0.0418289 σ: 176.223 ± 10.7578 Correction Systematic:
±3.87838
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Unc (absolute)
Unc (%)
Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944
- -
JER0.665639 0.686278642 177.0805214 0.857127064 0.48638665
JRE0.665257 0.685935659 176.9995242 0.776129838 0.440423839
JES up0.635769 0.659459578 157.136386 19.0870084 -10.83114332
JES down0.696354 0.713856396 200.4752163 -24.251822 13.76197641
JVF up0.663283 0.684163285 175.0608676 1.162526811 -0.659689263
JVF down0.66522 0.685902439 177.2338911 -1.01049674 0.573418043
BSF up0.660732 0.681872845 171.6705412 4.552853193 -2.583569117
BSF down0.668005 0.688402977 181.0230963 -4.79970194 2.723646289
MET up0.655391 0.677077378 171.3473195 4.876074841 -2.766984973
MET down0.680586 0.699698948 182.4723177 -6.24892331 3.546023692
Tau trig up0.687623 0.706017185 180.283724 -4.06032962 2.304080928
Tau trig down 0.63363 0.657539057 170.9790784 5.244315964 -2.97594765
TES up0.672766 0.692677686 179.4065931 3.183198717 1.806342869
TES down0.660488 0.681653767 181.4403267 5.216932352 2.960408504
Tau Eveto SF up 0.664739 0.685470568 176.2631482 -0.03975386 0.022558786
Tau Eveto SF down 0.66414 0.68493275 176.1822674 0.041127005 -0.023337994
Nominal tes_up tes_down
No cut 14980835 14980835 14980835
GRL 11582501 11582501 11582501
Trigger 2148161 2148161 2148161
ntrack > 4 2146272 2146272 2146272
Electron/muon overlap
2146215 2146215 2146215
Event cleaning 2129461 2129567 2129462
Lepton veto 936511 936557 936511
ntaus > 0 263227 380669 258603
njets ≥ 4 156093.09 241761.07909 153199.70067
MET > 60 GeV 121403.40 186241.12378 119256.12293
MT < 80 GeV 64807.29 106553.52284 64096.69956
nbjets > 1 54693.36 89938.70251 54106.97931
Trigger match 21465.810 21510.530608 20785.628509
Truth match 18115.247 18085.581142 17573.842642
Cutflows
Systematics Contd.
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Unc (absolute)
Unc (%)
Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944
- -
Wnorm Up0.649942 0.672184941 165.5530307 10.67036362 6.055021045
Wnorm Down 0.677927 0.697311539 186.9328833 -10.7094889 -6.077223147QCD
Bin/Range 0.698455 0.715742799 184.0775058 7.85411139 4.4569062HiISR
0.663261 0.684143532 130.6296872LowISR
0.665379 0.686045198 111.2287908 9.700448219 5.504631354
Top Mass
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Unc (absolute)
Unc (%)
Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944
- -
167.50.688765 0.707042541 183.2008124 6.977418055 3.959416444
170.00.694873 0.712526666 170.8047351 -5.41865928 -3.074880778
175.00.688475 0.706782161 152.8903987 -23.3329957 -13.24057783
177.50.664239 0.685021638 141.9999232 -34.2234711 -19.42050387
167.50.681423 0.700450456 182.3662705 6.142876088 3.485845969
170.00.691478 0.709478433 170.5162042 -5.70719014 -3.238610945
175.00.692164 0.710094365 153.283518 -22.9398764 -13.01749774
177.50.671284 0.691347059 142.6328525 -33.5905419 -19.06134086
167.50.674567 0.703001275 182.6873234 6.463928991 3.668031146
170.00.694873 0.711924203 170.747795 -5.47559937 -3.107192089
175.00.688475 0.71296123 153.625443 -22.5979514 -12.82346847
177.50.664239 0.694294731 142.9328366 -33.2905577 -18.8911114
Ori
gin
al kf
ac/
σ(F
E)
from
TopM
C11
tw
iki
Corr
ect
ion
usi
ng
Ref
σ’s
Usi
ng
kfac/
σ(F
E)
from
105200
𝑠𝑓=(𝜎 (𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑟𝑒𝑓 . ) {=177.31 }𝜎 (𝑟𝑒𝑓 )𝑖 )∗𝑘𝑓𝑎𝑐 𝑖∗𝜎 (𝐹𝐸 )𝑖∗( 𝐿𝑢𝑚𝑖
𝑁 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙)
MC Generator
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Unc (absolute)
Unc (%)
Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944
- -
AlpHerwig (baseline) 0.693962 0.711708716 94.57787867 67.16727631 38.11484653MC@NLO (105200) 0.688417 0.706730085 173.1737388 11.42858384 6.485281865
SYST_AtF_105860 0.719017 0.734204586 153.0222872 3.35549941 1.904116886
SYST_AtF_117050 0.665279 0.685955412 149.6667878 - -
SYST_Full_117050 0.695474 0.71306628 161.745155 - -
1.1) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and MC@NLO+fHerwig sample 105200 (MC@NLO(105200)) 1.2) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and the fullsim mc11c ALPGEN+HERWIG samples (AlpHerwig(baseline)) 1.3) AtlFast2 mc11b POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_AtF_117050) POWHEG+fHerwig sample 105860 (SYST_AtF_105860)
QCD Template: Divided Control Region
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Unc (absolute)
Unc (%)
Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944
- -
> 0.580.674445 0.694185193 178.533237
< 0.580.659889 0.68111595 175.1720384 3.361199 1.907351
QCD Template: Correlation Plots
Oddity?
MET
Dije
t Mass
Oddity?
MET
Dije
t Mass
Back-up
for (unsigned int tfj = (tau_matched.size() - 1); tfj > 0; tfj--){ try { int REFN1 = tau_matched.at(tfj).entry(); int REFN2 = tau_matched.at(tfj-1).entry(); if( (physics->tau_BDTJetScore->at(REFN1)) > (physics->tau_BDTJetScore->at(REFN2))) { save = tau_matched.at(tfj); tau_matched.at(tfj) = tau_matched.at(tfj-1); tau_matched.at(tfj-1) = save; } } catch (const std::out_of_range& C12_2){ std::cerr << endl << "C12.2: OUT OF RANGE ERROR: " << C12_2.what() << endl; EMERXIT = 12; continue; }}
QCD Bin/RangeSample Fraction Cor.
Fractionσ Unc
(absolute)
Unc (%)
Nominal 0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944 - -
Range+1 0.67702 0.696497181 179.127843 -2.90444868 -1.648162943Range+2 0.666251 0.686828132 176.6411196 -0.41772521 -0.237042993Range+3 0.66633 0.686899063 176.6593619 -0.43596749 -0.247394787Range-1 0.682355 0.701287261 180.3597745 -4.13638013 -2.347236667Range-2 0.666977 0.687479978 176.8087639 -0.58536949 -0.332174675Range-3 0.677023 0.696499874 179.1285358 -2.90514143 -1.648556049Bins+1 0.698455 0.715742799 184.0775058 -7.85411139 -4.4569062Bins+2 0.648599 0.670979116 172.5650083 3.658386109 2.075993441Bins-1 0.646316 0.668929303 172.0378293 4.18556502 2.375147202Bins-2 0.668709 0.68903507 177.2087086 -0.98531424 -0.559127944Range increases/decreases in steps of 20GeV
Bin amount increases/decreases in steps of 5
Linearity Test to All Values
Y(0): -0.186462 ± 0.0013857 Slope: 1.23971 ± 0.00246245 Chi2: 32.7364 NDF: 8998
Linearity Test to Means
Slope: 1.23772 ± 0.0351884 y-intercept: -0.184483 ± 0.0198016Chi2: 0.00520053 NDF: 7
Mean Values of Ensemble Fits
Input Fraction
Previous Gaussian
Mean Output Fraction
Unc. Gaussian Mean
Output Fraction
Unc.
0.1 -0.0899462 0.00362867 -0.0998291 0.00487524
0.2 0.0538521 0.00207006 0.0501427 0.00241776
0.3 0.174326 0.00183766 0.204145 0.00187353
0.4 0.298044 0.00158434 0.335251 0.00170598
0.5 0.419200 0.00143606 0.460622 0.00147548
0.6 0.536226 0.00135077 0.580640 0.00134429
0.7 0.651246 0.00124441 0.689419 0.00114811
0.8 0.762769 0.00124064 0.794341 0.00116489
0.9 0.875338 0.00137805 0.894616 0.00111430
0.626089 0.566095 0.00132265
0.664442 0.651099 0.00120115
Adjust Range for Linear Fit?
Range Fit to Means Fit to All Values
Corrected σ
Y(0) Slope Y(0) Slope
0.1 – 0.9 -0.184483
1.23770 -0.18646
92
1.23971 176.524
0.2 – 0.9 -0.156549
1.19581 -0.15581
5
1.19374 176.719
0.3 – 0.9 -0.124079
1.14942 -0.12331 1.1473 176.586
0.4 – 0.9 -0.099726
5
1.11622 -0.09871
07
1.11376 176.223
MC Tau PlotsMC Tau Count MC Tau Children
pdgIDMC Tau Children Count
Leptonic pdgID values: e → 11, μ → 13, τ → 15
MT Signal vs Control vs MC Backgrounds
Samples Normalized to Own Integrals
Samples Normalized to Sum of Integrals
Fits/Hists for Ensemble Tests
Cutflow C0: GRL C1: Trigger C2: Primary vertex with ntracks > 4 C3: Electron/muon overlap C4: Jet cleaning C5: Lepton Veto C6: tau n ≥ 1 C7: njets >= 4 with eta < 2.5 and |jvf| > 0.75 C8: MET > 60GeV C9: MT < 80GeV C10: >= 1 bjet
C11: Trigger matched tau n ≥ 1 and pT >= 40GeV C12: MC tau object match
Chi-squared minimization
Equation:
N(x): total number of events of type x for distribution n(x)i: number of events in bin of type x frac(Sig): fraction of N(Remain) expected to be Signal binfrac(x)i: fraction of events in bin of type x expected
from MC or template σi: uncertainty in bin i
2
i
iiii2
σ
)n(OB)D)binfrac(QC*N(Remain)*frac(QCD)g)binfrac(si*N(Remain)*(frac(Sig)n(Data)χ
N(OB) - N(Data) N(Remain)
frac(Sig) - 1 frac(QCD)
Chi-squared minimization cont.
σi determined using factors for: bin error:
data signal, MC QCD template other backgrounds, MC
statistical error: data: signal region other backgrounds, MC signal, MC QCD template (uncertainty of background region
data and all MC background region carried through via default SumW2
Highest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 9.818 p-value: 0.7753 ndf: 14 chi/ndf: 0.7012
2nd Highest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 13.66 p-value: 0.5517 ndf: 15 chi/ndf: 0.9107
Dijet Mass reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 15.47 p-value: 0.6297 ndf: 18 chi/ndf: 0.8594
MET
Results for plot: chi-square: 15.87 p-value: 0.1971 ndf: 12 chi/ndf: 1.323
Closest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 14.39 p-value: 0.2123 ndf: 11 chi/ndf: 1.308
New Event Selection Verification (Only uses MC so Excludes QCD)
Cut Sig Evts
Fakes Sig Eff. Fake Ratio
Rej Fact.
Sig/sqrt(Bkg
d)
Sig/Sqrt(Sig
+Bkgd)
C5Lep Veto
5863 1451086
- - - 4.867 4.857
C6ntaus >
0
5863 138276 1 0.09529 0.04240 15.77 15.44
C7njets
3191 11025 0.5443 0.07973 0.5318 30.39 26.76
C8MET
2583 7598 0.8095 0.6892 0.41998 29.63 25.60
C9MT
1892 3968 0.7325 0.5222 0.6510 30.04 24.72
C10bjet
1650 1230 0.8721 0.30998 1.538 47.05 30.75
C12Trig
match
941 335 0.5703 0.2724 4.925 51.41 26.34
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