An Assessment of Urban Development Pathways for Delhi Using Emission

TrajectoriesChhemendra Sharma

NATCOM PMCMinistry of Environment & Forests

C/o Winrock International India, New Delhi

A.P. MitraNational Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

Reena PundirIndian Institute of Technology, Delhi

GCP Meeting, Mexico City, 4-8 September 2006

Outline of the Presentation

• Background• Emission Estimates• Development Pathways and Development

Goals• Conflict of interests of various stake

holders• Impacts of policy decisions• Sum-up

Salient Features of Delhi• Unique City State in India• Area 1483 km2

• Highest per capita Income in India• Constantly expending opportunities due to

capitalization of economic policy reforms• Only 8% population lives below poverty line• Forest Covers over 7.5% of Delhi’s Geographical Area• Fundamental problems

– Migration– Power and water supply– Public Health – Public Safety

900 BC to 1947

P=274

1958

P = 1176

1981 2001

P = 9294

Delhi –Historic Development

P =Population Density person/km2)

National Capital Region (NCR) Towns

Delhi (NCTD)

NCTD – National Capital Territory of Delhi

Emission Inventory: Significance sectors Sector CO2 CH4 N2O NOx CO SO2 Partic

ulate

Energy & Transformation Industries

X X X X X

Transportation X X X X X

Biomass Burning X X X X X X

Industrial processes

Cement X

Steel X

Agriculture

Enteric fermentation X

Rice cultivation X

Agriculture soil X

Agricultural residue burning X X X X X

Land-use and forestry X

Waste X

Embodied emission

IPCC 1996 Guidelines for Inventory Preparation

Pollutants emission from gasoline consumption in Delhi

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1000019

90-9

1

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

Year

Emis

sion

(Gg)

CO2 NOx HC PMCO BC OC

Pollutants emission from diesel consumption in Delhi

1

10

100

1000

10000

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

Emis

sion

(Gg)

CO2 NOx HC PMCO BCOC

CO2 emission from CNG consumption in Delhi

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

CO

2 Em

issi

on (

Gg)

Emission Inventories from Transport Sector in Delhi

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 20000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Total CH4 emission from direct & Indirect sources of emission

Direct CH4 emission Indirect CH4 emission

Em

issi

on(G

g)Year1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Total CO2 emission from Direct and Indirect sources in Delhi

Direct CO2 Emission Indirect CO2 EmissionE

mis

sion

(Gg)

Year

Emission Inventories for Delhi

Human Development Report of Delhi (August 2006) advocates the Development Approach as:

‘..Purpose of development is to create an enabling environment for people to enjoy long, healthy, creative and secure lives.’

Delhi Development Goals• Goal 1: Eradicate Poverty and Hunger ( three

targets)• Goal 2: Achieve Universal Elementary Education

(Seven targets)• Goal 3: Promote Gender equality and Empower

women (Three targets)• Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality (Two targets)• Goal 5:Improve Maternal Health ( One Target)• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and Other

Diseases (Three targets)

Delhi Development Goals• Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability

– Target #20: Increased Forest Cover– Target #21: Reduce carbon dioxide emissions– Target # 22: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people

without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation

– Target #23: Increase proportion of population with access to improved sanitation

– Target #24: Achieve a significant improvement in the lives of slum dwellers

Continued…

Delhi Development Goals

• Goal 8: Strengthen Bhagidari (Three targets)

• Goal 9: Improve Public Safety (Three targets)

Continued…

Development Pathways

• Land Use Pattern is supposed to be guided by successive City Master Plans

– Presently Master Plan 2001 is operational

– Modification of Master Plan is expected to be notified very soon as a result of conflict of competitive interests

Compliance of Policy decisions are often influenced/ catalyzed by the stakeholders’activism

• Recent examples:

1. Ongoing drive for complete closure of commercial activities in residential areas ordered by superior courts to force compliance with the provisions of current Master Plan

2. Implementation of reforms in transport sector to improve ambient air quality

- Introduction of CNG for Public transport- Introduction of tougher emission norms for new vehicles- Improvement of fuel quality- Restriction of movement of commercial vehicles

2000-01

Number of Registered vehicles in Delhi

0500000

10000001500000200000025000003000000350000040000004500000

1990

-9119

91-92

1992

-9319

93-94

1994

-9519

95-96

1996

-9719

97-98

1998

-9919

99-00

2000

-0120

01-02

2002

-0320

03-04

year

Num

ber o

f veh

icle

s

Population of Delhi

02468

10121416

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ion)

Category wise increase in Number of Vehicles in Delhi

0500000

10000001500000200000025000003000000

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

Year

Num

ber o

f Veh

icle

s

Car & jeeps MotorCycle &Scooters Auto RickshawsTaxies Buses Goods Vehicles

Vehicle Emission Norm Schedule In India

1990

1st set normsnotified

1995

Emission norms forcatalytic vehicles

1996

2nd set normsnotified

2000/01

Euro-I equivalent (Country)Euro-II eqv. For cars (4 metros)

2005

Euro-II (Country)Euro-III (11 cities)

2010

Euro-III (Country)Euro-IV (11 cities)

August 1997

Sulphur 0.25%Delhi & Taj

Sulphur 0.25%Metro cities

April 1998

Sulphur 0.25%Entire Country

April-2000

April 2000-04

Sulphur 0.05%11 cities

April April96

Sulphur 0.50 %4 metros & Taj

Diesel SulphurReduction

Programme

Sulphur 0.05%Entire Country& 0.035 (11 cities)

April-2005

April-2010

Sulphur 0.005% (11 cities)& 0.035%

(Entire Country)

IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS ON AIR QUALITY OF DELHI (1996 Vs. 2003)

IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS ON AIR QUALITY OF DELHI (1996 Vs. 2003)

Effect of policies over pollutants emission from car & jeeps in Delhi

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

Emis

sion

(ton

es)

CO Emission in (tones) HC+NOx Emission (Tones)

Effect of policies over pollutants emission from auto rickshaws in Delhi

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

Emis

sion

( Ton

es)

CO Emission in (tones) HC+NOx Emission (Tones)

Effect of policies over pollutants emission from motorcycle & scooter in Delhi

010000200003000040000500006000070000

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

Em

issi

on (T

ones

)

HC+NOx Emission (tones) and CO Emissions (tones)

Application of stricter Emission Norms for Vehicles

2000-01 = Euro –I

2002-03 =Euro-II

Impacts of Policy Decisions on Criteria Pollutants Emissions from Transport Sector

CO2 Emission form Diesel and CNG consumption in Buses in Delhi

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

Year

Emis

sion

in (G

g)

CO2 emission form CNG (Gg ) CO2 emission from Diesel (Gg)

Euro-II : Provisional Scenario for Euro-II Bus Fleet –Completely Phased Out

Co-benefits : Reduction in CO2 Emission

Savings

New Initiative in Delhi • Successful completion of first phase of Metro rail

and start of Second Phase

• In order to prepare city for the upcoming Commonwealth Games in 2010, big infra-structure development projects are being planned

• A multi-mode transport system comprising of Metro, LRT and high Capacity Bus system is being planned

To Sum-up:

• Development trajectory is a result of complex interplay of interests of various stake-holders especially in democratic set-up

• The issue of decarbonization has been recognized but issues related to air quality improvement have dominance over CO2reduction issues

Acknowledgement:ISSE/NCAR

IHDPGCP

Thanks