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Page 1: Analysis on the factors that affect AEO MRAs-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/129149/1/000000141934.pdf · 2019-11-14 · The C-TPAT is a voluntary supply chain security program through

저 시-비 리- 경 지 2.0 한민

는 아래 조건 르는 경 에 한하여 게

l 저 물 복제, 포, 전송, 전시, 공연 송할 수 습니다.

다 과 같 조건 라야 합니다:

l 하는, 저 물 나 포 경 , 저 물에 적 된 허락조건 명확하게 나타내어야 합니다.

l 저 터 허가를 면 러한 조건들 적 되지 않습니다.

저 에 른 리는 내 에 하여 향 지 않습니다.

것 허락규약(Legal Code) 해하 쉽게 약한 것 니다.

Disclaimer

저 시. 하는 원저 를 시하여야 합니다.

비 리. 하는 저 물 리 목적 할 수 없습니다.

경 지. 하는 저 물 개 , 형 또는 가공할 수 없습니다.

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Analysis on the factors that affect AEO MRA

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Analysis on the factors that affect AEO MRA

Thesis by

Bokyung Kim

Graduate Program in International Area Studies

In Fulfillment of the Requirements

For the Degree of Master of International Studies

February 2017

Graduate School of International Studies

Seoul National University

Seoul, Republic of Korea

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Copyright by Bokyung Kim 2017

All Rights Reserved

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Abstract

Analysis on the factors that affect AEO MRA

Bokyung Kim

International Commerce

The Graduate School of International Studies

Seoul National University

The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that affect AEO MRA for

trade facilitation and trade security between two partner nations. Since the

first MRA between US and New Zealand in 2007, AEO participant nations

have formed actively MRA.

This study uses the multiple logistic regression model to prove the empirical

evidence, which is used when that data consist of a binary response and a set

of explanatory variables for 63 AEO participant nations. The empirical results

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indicate that the probability of the formation of AEO MRA between pair of

countries is higher; (i) the smaller economic market size, (ii) the higher

export value to partner country, (iii) the longer import clearance time, (iv) the

lower level of tariff and non-tariff barrier, (v) the safer IT support

environment, (vi) the safer from terrorism threats.

Key words:

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Table of Contents

Abstract

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

. Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1

. Literature review -------------------------------------------------------------- 6

2.1 AEO ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6

2.2 AEO MRA ------------------------------------------------------------------ 8

. Analytical Framework ------------------------------------------------------- 11

3.1 Hypothesis ----------------------------------------------------------------- 11

3.2 Empirical model --------------------------------------------------------- 15

3.2.1 Explanation for variables ----------------------------------------- 15

3.2.2 Explanation for data ----------------------------------------------- 18

. Empirical Results ------------------------------------------------------------ 19

. Conclusion -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24

Bibliography

Appendix

Abstract in Korean

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List of Tables

Table IV-1. Result of logistic regression modeling (2006-2015) ----------- 21

Table IV-2. Summary Statistics ------------------------------------------------- 21

Table IV-3. Result of logistic regression modeling (2006-2011) ----------- 23

Table IV-4. Result of logistic regression modeling (2012-2015) ----------- 23

List of Figures

Figure I-1. The number of AEO MRA (End June 2016) -------------------- 4

Figure III-2. Hypothesis structure -------------------------------------------- 14

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. Introduction

The 9.11 attack on the New York World Trade Center in 2001 became a

momentum to raise risk awareness in the international community. As its

effect expanded into the international trade area, customs administrations in

the world that running to the objective for trade facilitation have faced

another important goal and responsibility in the area of trade security.1

As activities to strengthen trade security in the international trade area

impede inevitably trade facilitation causing to increase costs by adding

burden of customs administration works for delaying the trade process,

customs communities needed to develop certain measures to balance trade

facilitate and trade security. 2 Moreover, world trade volume has been

increasing rapidly, especially since the establishment of World Trade

Organization in 1995. And reducing tariff and non-tariff barrier through

various FTAs, RTAs with the trend of trade liberalization is also one of the

1 Nitsch and Schumacher (2004), Mirza and Verdier (2007), Frey, Luechinger and Stutzer(2004) find that transnational terrorism have a negative effect on international trade.

2 · (2013), AEO (MRA) ,

14 3 2013.8.23, p23-43

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reasons for increased trade volume. Under this circumstance, as it is not

enough to manage the increased trade volume with limited customs human

resources, this situation made a new impetus to the customs administration

innovation to shift from one way model of traditional customs administration

approach to two way model of partnership approach between customs

administration and private business as a new paradigm that works together to

advance the international supply chain for a common purpose.3

Within this mind, since the 11 September 2001 attack, the US has

implemented Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) to

improve the national security with respect to terrorism. 4 However,

international trade communities have concerned about its probability as a

protectionism measure by strengthening managements for import cargo.

With this trend, the World Customs Organization (WCO) suggested the

3Widdowson (2006) argues that pressures to provide increased security to the global supply chain may tilt the balance heavily towards regulatory intervention. Appropriate levels of both trade facilitation and border protection may be achieved and maintained, however, by incorporating supply chain security requirements into broader partnership arrangements between customs authorities and the private sector.

The C-TPAT is a voluntary supply chain security program through partnership between the U.S Customs administration and private business to increase security with respect to terrorism.

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SAFE Framework of Standards to secure and facilitate global trade in 2007.

Here, The SAFE Framework introduced the concept of the Authorized

Economic Operator (AEO) 5 which is a customs and business partnership

model. Holders of AEO status get trading benefits such as expedited

customs procedures and exemption from certain fee in return for observing

customs security requirements.

However, the AEO’s limitation has been also brought up as the AEO status

which is granted by its own country cannot be recognized by trade partner

customs administrations. Therefore, the WCO recommends the Mutual

Recognition Agreement (MRA) among AEO participant nations to improve

the procedure for other authorization efforts.6 As the AEO status that is

recognized by one administration can be accepted by another customs

administration through MRA, AEOs can get same trading benefits in the

An Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) is defined in the WCO SAFE Framework of Standards as a party involved in the international movement of goods in whatever function that has been approved by or on behalf of a national Customs administration as complying with WCO or equivalent supply chain security standards.

6 World Customs Organization (WCO) 2011, MRA Guideline, Mutual Recognition (MR) is a broad concept embodied within the WCO SAFE Framework whereby an action or decision taken or an authorization that has been properly granted by one Customs administration, is recognized and accepted by another Customs administration.

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partner country. The number of AEO MRA is steadily increasing as a

measure to aim trade facilitation and trade security together.7

Figure I-1. The number of AEO MRA (End June 2016)

Source: Author’s compilation8

There have been some AEO MRA researches under the aspect of trade

facilitation or cost reduction for traders. However, MRA is based on not

only the economic purpose but also the trust including security issues such

World Customs Organization (WCO) 2011, MRA Guideline, mentioned that Mutual recognition of AEO Programmes may ultimately lead to the globalization of supply chain security and compliance standards and is therefore of great importance for those companies seeking true global supply chain security and compliance benefits.

8 EU is considered as a one country. The number of AEO MRA is much more when we separate EU into each country.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

AEO MRA

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as data transfers and protection between the parties, these issues are central

elements of the fight against terrorism. Thus, it would be meaningful

research on AEO MRA considered with the aspects of trade facilitation and

trade security not only complementary but also respectively.9 In addition,

the study on specific determinants of conclusion of AEO MRA is relatively

new field of research. Therefore, in this research, try to analyze the factors

that affect AEO MRA based on the Shin and Kwon(2015)’s research10

which examine the AEO MRAs as a trade facilitation measure by adding

trade security aspect.

The rest of the article is organized as follows. I overview the literature

reviews AEO and AEO MRA in section 2. In section 3 provides hypothesis,

sources of data and empirical specifications to test this theoretical question.

Section 4 shows the empirical results from logistic regression model. Finally,

the conclusion is provided in section 5.

9Grainger (2008) mentions that Trade facilitation is the simplification, harmonization, standardization and modernization of trade procedures by definition of WTO, however, Within the area of supply chain security, trade facilitation is seen as a concept that can help improve controls and offset the additional burden on legitimate traders.

· (2015), AEO ,

16 2 . p77-96

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. Literature Review

2.1 AEO

Mikuriya(2012) argued the importance for close partnership between

customs administration and business to improve the trade facilitation which

is one of key challenges for customs administration. The author said that

close collaboration with business is a prior condition for most WCO’s

customs law enforcement and programs for trade facilitation. Thus, he

mentioned the AEO’s vision in the 21st of as a system to strengthen the

relationship of customs and business.

Altemöller(2011) mentioned AEO as an initiatives to protect transit. He

argued that customs administration can achieve supply chain security

requiring for AEO’s compliance for comprehensive security in the

international trade area.

Zhang and Rob Preece(2011) argued the development of the AEO program

as a type of Customs business partnership is a new paradigm not

interventionist approaches but working together for a common purpose,

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which can not only works helpfully for cost-effective border system, can

also allow for trade facilitation that is related with the growth of the

economy.

Choi(2014) argued the importance of post-management for the AEOs

certified. The AEO accredited companies need to maintain or improve their

management according to requirements. Especially, when it comes to AEO

MRA, post- management is considered as an important part as well as the

AEO certification, the AEOs and customs administration need to put more

efforts in this area with AEO MRA in mind. In addition, he suggested

AEO MRA negotiations with countries having significant economic effects.

Also, he argued the MRA help the export competiveness for AEO nations.

Cho(2010) researched AEO with the point of view for Small and Medium

sized businesses. It is not easy for Small and Medium sized businesses to

certify AEO status due to the quite complex process. So AEO systems can

be rather a non-tariff barrier for Small and Medium sized businesses.

However, Small and Medium sized businesses certified AEO can improve

their export competitiveness through MRA.

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2.2 AEO MRA

Ahn(2008), Kim(2012),Kyung and Lee(2013) emphasized the necessity of

AEO MRA. Ahn suggested that it is possible to increase trust and

competitiveness without dis-advantage in partner customs procedure

through AEO MRA. Kim argued the importance of AEO MRA as

eliminating effect of a non-tariff barrier. Also, AEO MRA would have

synergy effect with FTA which is a tariff barrier elimination effect. Kyung

and Lee argued that the AEO MRA is a driving force to improve trade

security and trade facilitation. It is important to expand the AEO MRAs with

the big export partner countries to increase export competitiveness by

reducing transport costs and customs clearance in the partner nation.

Shin and Kwon(2015) analyzed the AEO MRA determinants that were

concluded during 2004-2013 under the aspect of trade facilitation. They

categorized 5 explanatory variables in 2 groups; trade expanding aspect

which is GDP and trade volume and trade facilitation aspect which is OECD,

Trade Freedom, customs clearance lead time in the import country. They

found that GDP is not significant and trade volume, OECD, Trade Freedom

index and customs clearance time in the import country are significant.

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Moreover, they also analyzed the AEO MRA’s positive effect on the

international trade by using gravity model. According to their research, trade

volume with AEO MRA increase by 6% in the fixed effects model and

increase by 6.9% in the hausman-taylor mode respectively.

Mikuriya(2007) argued the AEO MRA is one of challenges of customs

administration according to a new measure issue such as routine sharing

information and result of its control.

Aigner(2010) argued that one of the main features on AEO MRA is based

on the trust between contracting parties. She argued that customs

administrations would enter into negotiations of MRA with partner

administrations that have control capacity because of terror and data

protection issues. It is related with the challenge to ensure the relevant AEO

data’s exchange between AEO MRA negotiation parties so that the risk

analysis can be done well as granting AEOs agreed benefits of reduced risk

scores. Therefore, it is very important to have an IT support system in terms

of terror and data protection.

Altemöller (2016) argued that data transfer is an essential element of the

fight against terrorism in the international trade area. So it is very important

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to cooperate among nations through security initiatives for global trade such

as AEO MRA. The author argued that exchange of information among

nations will be ‘new frontiers’ for national security, not just limited territory

checkpoint. At the same time, it is necessary to be conducted under

symmetric condition through extensive cooperation with partners. However,

as it demands for a far higher level of data transfers as requirements of

counter-terrorism to improve the trade security, it profoundly affects the

internal data security of corporations.

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. Analytical Framework

3.1 Hypothesis

Based on the literature review, it is constructed six hypotheses in this

study, which are the factors that affect formation of AEO MRA between

AEO participant nations. Following each hypothesis, this study will evaluate

empirically the probability of the AEO MRA with those factors using

logistic regression model.

Hypothesis 1: The probability of the AEO MRA is higher the larger are two

partners’ economic sizes.

This hypothesis can be a proxy of each country’s market size. When we

take the purpose of AEO MRA as a trade facilitation measure for trade

expansion into account, it is important to consider the economic factor. In

general, the economic sizes are larger, the need of trade facilitation is higher.

Therefore, we need to consider the relationship between AEO MRA and

the economic factor due to the scale-economies effects. We expect there is

positive effect between AEO MRA and economic sizes.

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Hypothesis 2: The probability of the AEO MRA is higher the larger is

export value to partner country.

According to literature review, as the AEO’s benefits such as reduction of

customs clearance time are granted by partner customs administration

through MRA, AEO MRA is contributed to firm’s export competitiveness.

This aspect would be affect more direct than economic market size.

Therefore, the AEO member nations that export value is larger need to

negotiate MRA with export partner nation.

Hypothesis 3: The probability of the AEO MRA is higher the lower is two

partners’ tariff barrier and non-tariff barrier’s level.

MRA works to lift side effects of AEO system such as non-tariff barrier

according to previous study. Moreover, MRA could bring synergy effects

with FTA which reduce the tariff barrier in the trade facilitation area.

Therefore, the countries with lower level of tariff and non-tariff barriers tend

to negotiate MRA.

Hypothesis 4: The probability of the AEO MRA is higher the longer is

partner nation’s lead time to import clearance.

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When we take the one of the purpose of MRA which is trade facilitation,

especially in partner country into account, the variables related with AEO

member nations’ import customs clearance environment can be an important

factor to negotiate MRA. If it shows the positive effect, it means that AEO

MRA is used to improve the import customs clearance in the partner country

to facilitate their export.

Hypothesis 5: The probability of the AEO MRA is higher the more the safe

IT support system.

One of the challenges to negotiate MR is the trust for another customs

administration under the aspect of IT support system. It connects directly

data protection, timely relevant AEO data transfer. Therefore, the IT

environment of partner country is an important factor to determine the trust

level for partner. The countries with higher level of IT support system tend

to negotiate MRA.

Hypothesis 6: The probability of the AEO MRA is higher the lower the risk

of terrorism.

Previous studies showed the negative effects of terror on the international

trade volume and flow. Data transfers through cooperation among nations

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are a central element to fight against terrorism. By sharing information on

the security data provided among nations, it could reduce the risk for trade

security. The countries with higher level of terrorism threat will show the

low probability of MRA due to the low trust of trade security. So, there is a

positive effect between AEO MRA and the low risk of terrorism.

Figure III-2. Hypothesis structure

Trade

facilitation

Market size Export Value Import clearance time Barrier level of

tariff and non-tariff AEO MRA

Determinan

Trade

security

Secure internet server (IT support system)

Terrorism threat

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3.2 Empirical model

This study uses the multiple logistic regression model to prove the

empirical evidence, which is used when that data consist of a binary response

and a set of explanatory variables. Basic equation of logistic regression is:

Logity =b0 + b1X1+ b2X2+ b3X3+ …. +bnXn

While there is no generalized model of AEO MRA formation, the response

probability function follows from arguments identified in literature reviews

as being influential in this regard.

The model in this study takes the following form:

LogitAEO MRAijt = b0 + b1 ln(GDPi+GDPj)t+ b2 ln(Export valueij)t + b3ln(lead

timej) t +b4 TFit + b5TFjt + b6ln(securei)t+ b7ln(securej)t+ b8terrorit+ b9terrorjt

3.2.1 Explanation for variables

The dependent variable in this study was treated as a binary variable. If two

countries have concluded AEO MRA, they take the value 1, and 0 if a

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country pair does not have an AEO MRA. More specifically, this study

analyze whether trade facilitation factors and trade security factors affect the

likelihood that will conclude AEO MRA. The dependent and independent

variables are following as.

LogitAEO MRAijt : whether AEO MRA is concluded between i and j country in year t or not

ln(GDPi+GDPj)t: the logs of sum of real GDPs of i and j countries in year t

ln(Export valueij)t: the logs of export values from i country to j country in year t

ln(lead timej) t: the logs of time(days) to import customs clearance of j country in year t

TFit: the economic freedom score of i country in year t

TFjt: the economic freedom score of j country in year t

ln(securei)t: the logs of the number of servers using encryption technology in internet transactions of i country in year t

ln(securej)t: the logs of the number of servers using encryption technology in internet transactions of j country in year t

terrorit: the business costs of terrorism of i country in year t

terrorjt: the business costs of terrorism of j country in year t

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The variable of ln(GDPi+GDPj)t11 was measured similarly with Baier and

Bergstrand(2004) to examine the economic market size effect.

The variables of ln(Export valuei)t and ln(Export valuej)t were used to

examine the effect of practical export value on the AEO MRA.

The variables of ln(lead timej)t is lead days to clear import customs

procedure. It was used to examine under the aspect of trade facilitation.

The variables of TFit and TFjt are composite measure considered tariff and

non-tariff barrier that affect imports and exports of goods and services based

on the two inputs which are the trade-weighted average tariff rate and non-

tariff barriers. The higher trade freedom scores mean the lower tariff and non-

tariff barriers.

The variables of ln(securei)t and ln(securej)t were used to examine the IT

support system environment effect on the AEO MRA as an operational

construct. The high number of secure servers means the safe IT support

system environment for data protection and data transfer.

11 Baier and Bergstrand(2004) “Economic determinants of free trade agreements”.Journal of International Economics 64,29-63.

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The variables of terrorit and terrorjt were used to examine the terrorism effect

on the AEO MRA as an operational construct. This index range from 1 to 7

that higher score means less business costs of terrorism in the country.

3.2.2 Explanation for data

I used the panel data from 2006 to 2015 to analysis the factors that affects

the AEO MRA among 63 AEO countries in the world.12

GDP data and secure internet severs were adopted from World Band data13.

Import customs clearance time data were collected from doing business of

World Bank14.The data of export volume from i country to j country were

collected from UNCOMTRADE15.TF data were collected from heritage

foundation16. Data for business costs of terrorism were collected from World

12 The first AEO MRA was negotiated in 2007.

13 http://databank.worldbank.org

14 http://www.doingbusiness.org/Custom-Query

15 http://comtrade.un.org/data/

16 http://www.heritage.org/index/trade-freedom

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Economic Forum17.

IV. Empirical Results

The result shows that all the variables are statistically significant at the level

of 0.01. However, my research result shows differently with previous

study(Shin and Kwon 2015). Because I have measured with different way

and period compared to the previous study. The variable of GDP shows the

negative effect unlikely the expectation. There is a high probability of AEO

MRA between countries with lower GDP. However, the odd of this variable is

less on the probability of AEO MRA than other factors. The variable of

export value shows the positive effect. Thus, we can find that countries with

the smaller economic size and high export dependency are active on the

MRA negotiation. The variables of import customs clearance time also show

the positive effect. It proves that AEO MRA is used as a trade facilitation

measure to overcome the complicated customs clearance procedure in major

17 http://reports.weforum.org

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trade partner country. The variables of safe internet security environment

factor also show the positive effect. IT support system is one of the important

factors to negotiate MRA for AEO member countries which should transfer

their data. In addition, this result shows that the variable of terrorism factor is

more on the probability of AEO MRA than other factors, which are as their

odds 2.679 and 2.916, respectively. High business cost of terrorism means

high level of terrorism threat. Terror incurs serious injury on the international

trade area. Therefore, it is an important factor when we consider the AEO

MRA’s main purpose which is trade security and trade facilitation. AEO

MRA is recommended to negotiate between countries with high trust for

terror as giving the trading benefits such as inspection procedure

simplification for MRA partner’s import cargo.

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Table IV-1. Result of logistic regression modeling (2006-2015)

Variables B Standard Error Wald Odds ratio

ln(GDPi+GDPj) -.287 .028 102.871 .750***

ln(Export Valueij) .272 .010 738.780 1.313*** ln(lead timej) .569 .045 156.701 1.767***

TFit .149 .004 1180.978 1.161*** TFjt .171 .005 1298.093 1.186***

ln(securei) .220 .015 209.591 1.246*** ln(securej) .332 .016 406.913 1.394***

terrori .986 .030 1095.808 2.679*** terrorj 1.070 .030 1283.458 2.916***

All predictor variables are significant at the level of 0.01.

Table IV-2. Summary Statistics

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max AEO MRA

(binary) 36842 0.21 0.406 0 1

ln(GDPi+GDPj) 36488 27.3962 1.33719 23.51 30.99 ln(Export Valueij) 36259 18.6306 3.15869 2.08 26.74 ln(lead timej) 36209 2.5280 0.54089 1.39 4.16

TFit 36601 81.531975 7.6575400 51 95 TFjt 36615 81.470436 7.6762944 51 95

ln(securei) 36720 7.4945 2.10281 0.69 13.18 ln(securej) 36725 7.4861 2.10977 0.69 13.18

terrori 36783 5.443851 0.8886447 6.7991 6.7991 terrorj 36788 5.441227 0.8843251 6.7991 6.7991

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To robust this study, another regressions which was divided into two periods

were conducted. These are the results of two regressions that applied same

variables in same model but the period is divided into two parts which are

2006-2011, 2012-2015, respectively. The former period regression result

shows that the variable of terrorism factor is not only more on the probability

of AEO MRA than other factors but also higher probability than whole period

regression for same variable. However, the odd ratio for terrorism factor in

the latter period regression is similar with the regression result with whole

period. It can be interpreted that 9-11 attack impact affected for MRA at the

beginning time, however as time went by MRA has been used for trade

facilitation and trade security. Also, the variable for sum of GDP shows that it

is not significant in the latter period regression.

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Table IV-3. Result of logistic regression modeling (2006-2011)

Variables B Standard Error Wald Odds ratio

ln(GDPi+GDPj) -.251 .045 31.231 .778***

ln(Export Valueij) .303 .014 440.946 1.354*** ln(lead timej) .713 .065 118.666 2.041***

TFit .144 .006 530.395 1.155*** TFjt .171 .007 618.392 1.187***

ln(securei) .113 .023 24.615 1.119*** ln(securej) .273 .025 116.527 1.313***

terrori 1.328 .047 809.641 3.775*** terrorj 1.438 .047 938.7 4.213***

All predictor variables are significant at the level of 0.01.

Table IV-4. Result of logistic regression modeling (2012-2015)

Variables B Standard Error Wald Odds ratio

ln(GDPi+GDPj) -.054 .040 1.814 .948

ln(Export Valueij) .330 .016 448.187 1.391*** ln(lead timej) .344 .067 26.050 1.411***

TFit .165 .006 698.422 1.180*** TFjt .178 .007 691.356 1.195***

ln(securei) .119 .025 23.261 1.126*** ln(securej) .201 .025 63.541 1.223***

terrori .851 .041 429.275 2.343*** terrorj .925 .041 499.689 2.521***

Predictor variables except for sum of GDP are significant at the level of 0.01.

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V. Conclusion

This study analyzed the factors that affect AEO MRA using logistic

regression. As the history of AEO MRA is not long, this area is quite a new

field. In addition, the majority of previous studies approached this topic

under the aspect as a measure of trade facilitation or economic cost reduction

for trading business. However, this study analyzed the determinants of AEO

MRA considering its main purpose which are trade facilitation and trade

security, so it can be meaningful and differentiated from previous study

The main finding can be summarized that the likelihood of AEO MRA

between pair of countries are higher; (i) the smaller economic market size, (ii)

the higher export value to partner country, (iii) the longer import clearance

time, (iv) the lower level of tariff and non-tariff barrier, (v) the safer IT

support environment, (vi) the safer from terrorism threats.

We can suggest some implications from the results. First, we find that AEO

MRA is employed to reduce import clearance time of major export partner, as

the variables of export value and import clearance time show the positive

effects. Therefore, Korea as the largest AEO MRA contracting party need to

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expand the AEO MRA negotiations with major export partners that have

complicated import clearance procedure to improve export competitiveness.

Second, data transfer and data protection issues are prerequisite for AEO

MRA negotiation. It is related with trust for partner nation’s security. Once

MRA is concluded, customs administration should give benefits such as

reduced import cargo inspection to partner nation’s AEOs. Therefore, there is

a tendency to conclude MRA with nations that have low terror threats to

improve own nation’s trade security. In addition, there needs to exchange

high level of data against terrorism, however, as it is directly related with

corporate’s data protection issues, MRA is concluded with nations having

secure IT environments. Therefore, we should consider the aspect of trade

security to negotiate MRA. Third, it is important to manage domestic AEO

status as well as expansion of MRAs. AEO system is consisted of customs –

business partnership. Thus, as private businesses’ voluntary participation and

observation are more important than others to maintain and improve AEO

status, government should put efforts into expanding AEO status through

transparent communication with business to get trading benefits for many

Korean export companies from MRA.

Some limitation remains in this study. First, As this study used the variables

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based on the literature reviews for AEO MRA main purpose, there could be

some omitted other variables for MRA negotiation that were not applied in

this model such as legal issues and same level of practice. Second, there is

some causality issue between dependent variable and independent variables.

It is not clear whether independent variables affect AEO MRA or whether

AEO MRA affects independent variables. Third, there is some endogenous

issue that between trade facilitation and MRA. As this study is expanded

based on the Shin and Kwon(2015)’s research, same variables from their

research were used here for trade facilitation aspect. However, I am doubtful

about endogenous issue from their variables. For example, Trade Freedom

index is related with MRA. They are mutually enforcing each other. Fifth,

there would be other method for year dummies. Independent variables in the

same year with MRA concluded are used in this study. However, generally

some environment such as economy or security issues for several years

would affect certain negotiation or agreement later. Therefore, it would be

more meaningful to examine the determinants for AEO MRA using not only

independent variables in MRA concluded year but also in previous years

MRA concluded.

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Appendix I. AEO participants in the world (until 2016.6)

Area Number Nations

North/South America 13

Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa

rica, Dominican Rep. Guatemala,

Mexico, Peru, USA, Bolivia, Brazil,

Jamaica, Uruguay

Europe 33 EU 28 nations, Andorra, Norway,

Switzerland, Turkey, Serbia,

Asia-pacific 11

China, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, India,

Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore,

Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia

Africa 6 Kenya, Uganda, Israel, Jordan,

Morocco, Egypt

Total 63

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Appendix II. AEO MRA status in the world(2007 - 2015)

2007 US – New Zealand

2008 US – Jordan Japan - New Zealand Canada – US EU

2009 Japan- US Switzerland – EU Norway - EU

2010 Korea – Canada Korea – Singapore Korea - US Japan – EU Singapore – Canada Canada - Japan

2011 Korea – New Zealand Korea – Japan Japan – Singapore Andorra – EU

2012 US- Taiwan Singapore – China US – EU

2013 Korea – China Hong Kong – India Hong Kong – China

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2014 Korea – Honk Kong Korea – Mexico Korea – Turkey US – Israel US – Mexico US – Singapore Japan – Malaysia Singapore – Hong Kong China – EU

2015 Korea – Dominica Republic Korea – India Korea – Taiwan Korea – Israel

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