anhang4 juni2011 - austria _moodys

8/16/2019 Anhang4 Juni2011 - Austria _Moodys

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CREDIT ANALYSIS

GLOBAL SOVERE JUNE 6, 2011

Table of Contents:

SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE 1

Factor 1 – Economic Strength –

VERY HIGH 2

Factor 2 – Institutional Strength –

VERY HIGH 5

Factor 3 – Government Strength –

VERY HIGH 6

Factor 4 – Susceptibility to Event

Risk - LOW 8

RATING HISTORY 9

SOVEREIGN MECHANICS: AUSTRIA 10

ANNUAL STATISTICS 11

MOODY’S RELATED RESEARCH 13

Analyst Contacts:

LONDON 44.20.7772.5454

Kathrin Muehlbronner 44.20.7772.1383

Vice President – Senior Analyst

[email protected]

Yves Lemay 44.20.7772.5512

Managing Director – Banking

[email protected]

FRANKFURT 49.69.7073.0700

Alexander Kockerbeck 49.69.7073.0724

Vice President – Senior Credit Officer

[email protected]

NEW YORK 1.212.553.1653

Bart Oosterveld 1.212.553.7914

Managing Director – Sovereign Risk

[email protected]

Austria

Austria

Foreign Currency Local Currency

Government Bond Rating Aaa/Stable Aaa/Stable

Country Ceiling Aaa Aaa

Bank Deposit Ceiling Aaa Aaa

Moody’s sovereign rating list

Summary Rating Rationale

Moody’s rates the debt issued by the government at Aaa with a stable outlook. The rating isunderpinned by very high levels of economic, institutional and financial strength as well aslow event risk.

Austria emerged with stronger growth momentum from the recession than many of itsclosest peers in the EU. GDP growth is expected to accelerate further this year to 2.4% and

return to around trend growth of 2% in 2012, mainly driven by exports and privateconsumption. On a more fundamental perspective, the economy is well diversified and hasnot exhibited any of the major macroeconomic imbalances of some of the other EUsovereigns. The close ties to Central and Eastern Europe should also again turn into asupport for Austria’s growth outlook in the coming years as the region is expected to resumeits stronger growth trajectory than the more advanced countries of the EU. Austria’sinstitutional strength is considered to be very high, in line with its closest peers.

Fiscal consolidation is starting in 2011, with the general government deficit forecast todecline to 3.7% of GDP compared to 4.6% in 2010. However, Moody’s views that the

Austrian government’s fiscal efforts could be more ambitious against the background of solidGDP growth. Austria’s budget deficit as well as its public debt are higher than in other small

Aaa-rated EU countries. Its debt affordability ratio – while compatible with a Aaa rating – isalso higher than e.g. in Finland and the Netherlands. With regards to medium-termpressures from rising age-related spending Austria is relatively well placed compared to manyother EU sovereigns and similar to its closest peers.

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.moodys.com/moodys/cust/content/loadcontent.aspx?source=StaticContent/BusinessLines/Sovereign-SubSovereign/RatingsListGBR.htm&Param=ALLhttp://www.moodys.com/moodys/cust/content/loadcontent.aspx?source=StaticContent/BusinessLines/Sovereign-SubSovereign/RatingsListGBR.htm&Param=ALLmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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2 JUNE 6, 2011 CREDIT ANALYSIS: AUSTRIA

Austria’s susceptibility to event risk is considered to be low, rather than very low as is the case for itsclosest peers. This is mainly due to the large exposure of Austrian banks to Central and Eastern Europeand the contingent liability this entails for the government. However, Moody’s believes that that theserisks will generally be manageable at the bank level, without posing a risk to the government balancesheet. The debt of government-related entities might increasingly be added onto the government

balance sheet, as evidenced by Eurostat’s recent upward revisions to both budget deficit and publicdebt. While this is to be welcomed as a step towards more transparency over the true liabilities of thestate, the impact on the public finances and government debt ratio and its trajectory will have to bemonitored closely.

Factor 1 – Economic Strength – VERY HIGH

Exports continue to drive recovery

Scale Very High High Moderate Low Very Low

Austria-

Moody’s assesses Austria’s economic strength as very high. We consider a variety of indicators todetermine a country’s economic strength, including the level of wealth, economic size, volatility ofGDP growth, the existence of macroeconomic imbalances and the medium-term growth outlook.

Wealthy economy with no major imbalances

The wealth of a country is an important determinant of sovereign creditworthiness as it affects theamount of resources that a government can raise from the economy. Austria’s 2009 per capita GDP isvery high at $38,748 on a PPP basis ($45,562 at market exchange rates), in line with Sweden andCanada but higher than most of its Eurozone peers. Also, the Austrian economy is well-diversified,compensating for the relatively small size of the economy. Moderate wage increases coupled withimprovements in overall labour productivity have helped to maintain international competitiveness asevidenced by consistent current account surpluses since the early 2000s. Also, Austria did notexperience a real estate bubble and excessive build-up of debt in the private sector in the years leadingup to the financial crisis. The volatility of GDP growth has been broadly in line with that of otherhighly-rated countries over the last decade.


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FIGURE 1

Relative unit labor cost (Index, 2005=100)

85

90

95

100

105

110

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Austria France Germany Netherlands

Source: OECD

Recovery is faster than in peers

Austria’s economy is emerging more rapidly from the recession than some of its closest peers which aremainly other Aaa-rated European sovereigns with a strong industry-based export sector like Germany,France, the Netherlands and Switzerland (all Aaa with a stable outlook). With the exception ofGermany, Austria’s real GDP growth was the fastest around the turn of the year, with Q1 2011growth accelerating to 4% year-over-year. In contrast, the Netherlands and in particular Francerecorded more subdued growth of 2.7% and 2.2% respectively.

FIGURE 2

Quarterly real GDP (seasonally adjusted) growth, yoy

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Austria France Germany Netherlands Switzerland

Source: Eurostat

Austria’s better-than-expected growth performance in 2010 was mainly driven by exports with realexports increasing by 10.8% in 2010 compared to a year earlier. In 2011, growth is expected to expandby around 2.4%, again mainly based on continuing strong growth in Austria’s main trading partner,Germany. Private consumption will probably also continue to support economic growth – the labourmarket performance has been surprisingly good, with significant employment creation last year(+0.9%) and a decline in the already low unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.8% in 2009, in stark


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contrast to the labour market trends in virtually all EU countries except Germany. Investment (withthe exception of the construction sector) has also turned positive in the course of 2010 again. In amore medium-term perspective, Austria could continue to post slightly higher growth rates than itsmost immediate peers, based on the country’s strong trade and financial linkages to Central andEastern Europe which will likely again outpace Western Europe in terms of GDP growth in the

coming years1.

In line with most highly-developed countries, Austria faces challenges from the ageing of thepopulation which will become a more important ratings driver over the coming years as the impact onthe public finances becomes more acute2. The Austrian government estimates that total age-relatedexpenditure will increase by 3-4 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2050 (from 27.6% to31% of GDP), broadly in line with the expected increase in its closest peers.

FIGURE 3

Old –age related spending, % of GDP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Austria Netherlands Germany (1) France Finland

2010 2050

(1) The 2010 data for Germany refers to the value in 2007.Source: Stability & Growth Program Updates, April 2011

Austria has implemented important pension reform measures in the past several years (including thegradual raising of female retirement age from a comparatively low 60 years to 65 years (over atransition period beginning 2024 and ending in 2033). But early retirement is still relatively

widespread despite the reforms (effective retirement age of 58.9 years compared to OECD average of63.9 years, as of 2009) and according to the OECD the implicit tax rate on older workers is amongthe highest in the EU, discouraging longer participation in the workforce. Later retirement would notonly have direct positive implications for the government’s balance sheet in the form of lower pensionexpenditure and higher tax revenues but also indirect positive growth effects via an expanded laboursupply and higher savings. The government has announced further reforms to discourage earlyretirement but most of these come into effect only from 2014 onwards.

1 According to the IMF’s latest forecasts from May 2011, GDP growth in the advanced European economies and Emerging Europe will average 1.8% and 4.3% for

2011/12 respectively. Growth will remain more subdued than before the crisis though. Source: IMF: Regional Outlook Europe.2 See article on ageing and its potential impact on ratings in the Aaa Sovereign Monitor, August 2010

http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_125762http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_125762http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_125762http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_125762


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FIGURE 4

Implicit tax: Early retirement (% of average worker earnings)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

AUSTRIA EU OECD

2 005 2 007 2 009

Implicit tax on continued work in early retirement route, for 55 and 60-years-olds.Source: OECD

Factor 2 – Institutional Strength – VERY HIGH

Very high institutional strength in line with other OECD and EU sovereigns


Austria-

In Moody’s methodology institutional strength reflects an assessment of the efficiency and

predictability of government action as well as the transparency and degree of consensus on key policygoals. A key question is whether existing institutions are conducive to the respect of contracts, inparticular those that matter regarding debt payments. Moody’s uses both quantitative and qualitativeindicators to assess a sovereign’s institutional strength.

In terms of quantitative indicators that Moody’s considers in its assessment of institutional strength, Austria scores very highly, in line with other highly-rated Euro zone and OECD countries. Austriascored in the 94th percentile of the World Bank’s indicator of “Government Effectiveness” and in the96th percentile regarding “Rule of Law” (2009).

In a more qualitative assessment, Moody’s considers Austria’s willingness and ability to honour itsobligations to be very high given its unblemished modern-history track record of timely payments.

Also, Austria has a track record of maintaining very low budget deficits for extended periods of time(average general government deficit of 1.8% of GDP during 1998-2008). Moody’s also viewsfavourably the government’s medium-term fiscal planning with legal expenditure ceilings for a four-year rolling period which introduces a greater degree of predictability and accountability into publicfinances than is the case for many other countries. The recent amendments to the internal stabilitypact with regional and municipal governments are also positive, as they should ensure a strongercommitment to fiscal targets at all levels of governments (see more detailed discussion under Factor 3).


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Factor 3 – Government Strength – VERY HIGH

Fiscal consolidation starts in 2011 but lacks ambition


Austria-

For sovereigns at very high rating levels, the government’s financial strength tends to be the factormost important for the credit rating. Moody’s assesses the Austrian government’s financial strength asvery high, in line with the country’s closest peers. This is mainly based on our expectation that thegovernment will be successful in reducing its relatively large fiscal deficit and stabilizing the public debtratio in the next several years. Austria has a proven track record of achieving and maintaining very lowbudget deficits over an extended period.

Similar to other highly-rated sovereigns, Austria’s public finances experienced a significantdeterioration in 2009 and 2010. Recently, the 2010 budget deficit was revised up by one percentagepoint of GDP to 4.6% of GDP from 3.9% of GDP previously 3. These revisions were due to thestricter Eurostat rules on inclusion into the public-sector balance sheet of transactions by government-related entities (mainly transactions involving the railway company OeBB, several public hospitals as

well as the assumption by government of a part of the liabilities of the “bad bank” KA Finanz). Whilethe revision increases the transparency over the true liabilities of the government, we note thatfollowing the revisions the Austrian government has adjusted its 2011 deficit target upwards and nowonly targets a general government deficit of 3.9% of GDP against earlier plans of 3.2% 4. Thegovernment aims to reduce the budget deficit further to 3.3% and 2.9% of GDP in 2012 and 2013.

While realistic and achievable, Moody’s considers these targets to be not very ambitious, given that thestronger-than-expected economic recovery should allow for a faster budget consolidation. Also,

Austria’s fiscal consolidation is less ambitious than in other Aaa-rated Euro zone sovereigns with theexception of France. According to the government’s own projections the structural fiscal balance willonly be reduced very gradually from 3.2% of GDP in 2010 to 1.9% of GDP in 2014. The 2011adjustment is broadly balanced between expenditure reduction and revenue raising measures (mainly atax on banks which is expected to bring in 40% of the targeted increase in revenues alone). Over thenext several years, a larger share of the adjustment is expected to come from the expenditure side withoverall spending declining from a very high level of 53% of GDP in 2010 to a still elevated 50.6% ofGDP in 2014.

3 The 2009 budget deficit was revised up by 0.6% of GDP to 4.1% of GDP.4 New targets according to the Austrian Stability & Growth Program, published in April 2011.


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FIGURE 5

Government fiscal targets (2011-2014)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

070

71

72

73

74

75

76

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pu blic deb t (% of GDP ) Gen eral governmen t d eficit (% of GDP ), second ary axis

Structural deficit (% of GDP), secondary axis

Source: Austrian Stability & Growth Program Update, April 2011

Similar to the federal government the sub-national governments are also allowed to run larger deficitsthan targeted a year ago. Their combined deficit stood at 1.2% of GDP in 2010 versus a target of0.5% of GDP. The recently revised “Internal Stability Pact” sanctions deficits of 0.75% of GDP for2011 (versus a target of 0.3% of GDP a year ago) and slowly declining budget deficits for thefollowing years. Moody’s considers the revisions to the Pact as generally positive as it now envisagesstricter sanctions in case of deviation from the budgetary targets as well as clearer rules for guarantees atall levels. It should therefore ensure a stronger commitment from the regions to fiscal consolidation5.

Moody’s considers Austria’s budgetary framework to be stronger than in many other EU countries. In2009, the authorities introduced legally binding expenditure ceilings for all (federal) ministries withina four-year rolling budget framework. This provides for greater predictability and expenditure control,at least at the federal government level.

The government forecasts that the public debt ratio will increase to 75.5% of GDP by 2013 and onlystart to decline slowly afterwards. However, this forecast does not assume further revisions to what ineffect constitutes government debt (see discussion under Factor 4) which may materialize in thecoming years. Assuming average real and nominal GDP growth of 2.5% and 4.1% respectively(average growth rates for period 1999-2007) and Austria’s average budget deficit of 1.8% of GDP forthe same period the public debt would decline to the Maastricht ratio of 60% of GDP only towardsthe end of the next decade. While lower than Germany’s and France’s public debt ratio, we note that

Austria has the highest debt burden among the smaller Euro zone sovereigns that have a Aaa rating(Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg) as well as Switzerland. Consequently, Austria’ debtaffordability indicator (debt interest payments as a share of public revenues) is also worse than in those

countries, although the ratio remains within the parameters of a Aaa-rated sovereign with a ratio of 6-6.5% in the coming years.

5 The new limits on guarantees are in reaction to the bailout of Hypo Alpe-Adria Bank by the central government in December 2009 and expanding guarantees on the

Länder level in general. Many Austrian regions had provided their Landeshypothekenbanks with guarantees, in some cases exceeding their budgetary size by multiples.

These specific guarantees will be phased out until 2017, but remain a key risk factor until then. For a more detailed discussion see Moody’s Special Comment “New Austrian Stability Pact Credit Positive – Implementation Will Be Key ”

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397


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FIGURE 6

General government gross debt (% of GDP)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Finland Austria Netherlands Switzerland

2 008 2 009 2 010

Source: IMF, Eurostat

FIGURE 7

General government interest expenditures (% of revenues)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Finland Austria Netherlands Switzerland

2 008 2 009 2 010

Source: IMF, Eurostat

Factor 4 – Susceptibility to Event Risk - LOW

Limited risks from banking sector and government-related entities

Scale Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

Austria-

Moody’s assesses Austria’s susceptibility to event risk as low, rather than very low as for Austria’sclosest peers. This primarily reflects Moody’s concerns over the large exposure of Austrian banks to


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Central and Eastern Europe6. Risks of further deterioration in asset quality persist, given the divergentprospects for economic recovery in the different countries in the CEE region as well as the potentialimpact of ongoing strength of the Swiss franc, the preferred currency of foreign-currency lending inthe region. However, Moody’s expects that these risks will generally be manageable at the bank level,

without posing a risk to the government balance sheet7. Political and economic risks are considered to

be very low.

Other contingent liabilities are mainly related to the government-owned entities that are currentlyclassified outside of the government sector, namely railway company OeBB, public motorwayfinancing company Asfinag and the public real-estate company BIG. OeBB liabilitites of EUR 4.9billion have now been brought onto the government’s balance sheet but further reclassifications byEurostat in the future could potentially lead to the entire debt of OeBB (of approx. EUR 13 bn or4.5% of GDP as of end-2010) to be classified within the government sector. BIG is a significantlysmaller entity with debt outstanding of EUR 3.4 billion as of end-2010. Asfinag benefits from a stateguarantee on EUR 9 billion of its total outstanding liabilities of EUR 11.4 billion. Including all theseliabilities in the public debt would raise the government’s debt ratio by around 8% of GDP.

Rating History

Austria

Foreign Currency Ceilings Government Bonds

Bonds & Notes Bank DepositForeign

Currency Local Currency Outlook Date

Long-term Short-term Long-term Short-term

Rating Withdrawn WR WR WR WR -- -- -- Jul-99

Outlook Assigned -- -- -- -- -- -- Stable Mar-97

Rating Assigned -- -- -- -- -- Aaa -- Oct-86

Rating Assigned Aaa -- Aaa -- -- -- -- Apr-85

Rating Assigned -- P-1 -- P-1 -- -- -- Dec-85

Rating Assigned -- -- -- -- Aaa -- -- Jun-77

6 According to last available data from the Austrian central bank, the exposure to the region amounted to EUR 212.5 billion as of Q2 2010, equivalent to close to 75% of

GDP. Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Financial Stability Report 20, December 20107 As of end-2010 Austrian banks have issued bonds with a government guarantee of a total amount of EUR 21 billion and the government has contributed close to EUR 6

billion in capital to several financial institutions.


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Sovereign Mechanics8: Austria

SCALE -

-

SCALE

-

SCALE -

-

SCALE

-

ECONOMIC

STRENGTH

How strong is the eco nomic structure?

GCP/capita Diversification/size Long-term Trends

High Moderate Low Very Low

INSTITUTIONAL

STRENGTH

How robust are the institutions and how p redictable are the policies?

Rule of Law Governance Transparency

Very High High Moderate Low Very Low

GOVERNMENT

FINANCIAL

STRENGTH

How does the debt bu rden compare with the g overnment s resource

mobilization capacity?

Government balance

sheet tool kit

Balance of Payment

tool kit

Very High High Moderate Low Very Low

SUSCEPTIBILITY

TO EVENT RISK

What is the risk of a direct and sudd en threat to debt repayment?

Financial Economic Political

Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

ECONOMIC

RESILIENCY

RATING RANGE:

Aaa – Aa2

FINANCIAL

ROBUSTNESS

Very High

8 Link to our Sovereign Bond Rating Methodology

http://www.moodys.com/cust/getdocumentByNotesDocId.asp?criteria=PBC_109490http://www.moodys.com/cust/getdocumentByNotesDocId.asp?criteria=PBC_109490http://www.moodys.com/cust/getdocumentByNotesDocId.asp?criteria=PBC_109490


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11 JUNE 6, 2011 CREDIT ANALYSIS: AUS

Annual Statistics

Austria

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012

Economic Structure and Performance

Nominal GDP (US$ Bil.) 190.2 206.0 252.0 289.0 302.9 322.3 372.3 414.7 381.1 393.8 400.0 414

Population (Mil.) 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8

GDP per capita (US$) 23,642 25,479 31,046 35,358 36,792 38,919 44,850 49,739 45,562 46,923 47,522 49,02

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$) 28,801 30,225 31,078 32,571 33,377 36,104 37,711 39,675 38,748 -- --

Nominal GDP (% change, local currency) 2.4 3.0 2.0 4.2 4.6 5.5 5.9 4.1 -3.1 3.5 4.1 3

Real GDP (% change) 0.5 1.6 0.8 2.5 2.5 3.6 3.7 2.2 -3.9 2.0 2.4 2

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec) 2.0 1.8 1.2 2.9 1.6 1.4 3.6 1.3 1.0 2.2 2.8 2.

Unemployment Rate (%) 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.2 4.8 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.4 4.3 4

Gross Investment/GDP 23.7 22.1 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.3 23.2 23.2 21.3 22.0 22.3 22.

Gross Domestic Saving/GDP 26.0 26.8 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.4 28.9 29.0 25.7 26.9 27.9 28

Nominal Exports of Goods and Services (% change, US$ basis) 3.8 9.6 21.2 22.5 9.4 11.5 20.6 11 .1 -21.6 13.1 6.1 8

Nominal Imports of Goods and Services (% change, US$ basis) 3.0 3.7 24.6 22.4 9.4 9.6 19.6 11 .1 -20.9 13.4 5.0 7

Real Exports of Goods and Services (% change) 6.2 3. 9 1.5 10.1 7.4 7.7 8.6 1.0 -16.1 10.8 7.0 6

Real Imports of Goods and Services (% change) 5.6 -0.4 4.5 9.8 6.4 5.4 7.0 -0.9 -14.4 9.2 5.9 6

Net Exports of Goods and Services/GDP 2.2 4.8 3.5 3.8 4.0 5.1 5.8 5.8 4.5 4.9 5.6 6

Openness of the Economy [1] 94.7 93.3 93.7 100.0 104.4 108.5 112.9 112.6 96.5 105.8 109.9 114

Government Effectiveness [2] -- 1.94 1.95 1.82 1.62 1.72 1.78 1.63 1.63 -- --

Government Finance

Gen. Gov. Revenue/GDP 51.5 50.1 50.0 49.6 48.5 47.8 48.0 48.3 48.8 48.3 48.7 48

Gen. Gov. Expenditures/GDP 51.7 51.0 51.7 54.2 50.3 49.5 49.0 49.3 53.0 53.0 52.4 52

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP -0.2 -0.9 -1.7 -4.6 -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 -4.1 -4.6 -3.7 -3

Gen. Gov. Primary Balance/GDP 3.4 2.5 1.4 -1.6 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 -0.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0

Gen. Gov. Debt (US$ Bil.) [3] 125.67 152. 52 184.78 205.31 183.74 210.00 242.93 251.17 275.16 274.20 298.96 307.7

Gen. Gov. Debt/GDP [3] 67.1 66.5 65.5 64.8 63.9 62.1 60.7 63.8 69.6 72.3 73.8 75

Gen. Gov. Debt/Gen. Gov. Revenue [3] 130.3 132.6 131.0 130.5 131.8 129.8 126.5 132.1 142.7 144.3 151.6 154

Gen. Gov. Interest Payment/Gen. Gov. Revenue 7.0 6.8 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 6


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12 JUNE 6, 2011 CREDIT ANALYSIS: AUS

Austria

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012

External Payments and Debt

Nominal Exchange Rate (local currency per US$, Dec) [4] 1.13 0.95 0.79 0.73 0.85 0.76 0.68 0.72 0.69 0.75 0.73 0.7

Real Eff. Exchange Rate (% change) 0.2 0.8 3.5 1.3 -0.5 -0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 -2.7 --

Relative Unit Labor Costs (2005 = 100) 93.9 95.1 98.8 100.5 100.0 97.5 96.7 93.9 95.6 96.1 --

Current Account Balance (US$ Bil.) -1.57 5.53 4.26 6.01 6.11 8. 91 13.2 20.1 11.8 10.8 14.80 17.8

Current Account Balance/GDP -0.8 2.7 1.7 2. 1 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.9 3.1 2.7 3.7 4

Net Foreign Direct Investment/GDP 1.5 -2.6 0.0 -1.5 -0. 1 -1.4 -2.0 -5.4 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0

Net International Investment Position/GDP -26.3 -21.0 -15.8 -17.6 -22.7 -20.0 -18.3 -16.9 -3. 8 -0.6 --

Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Bil.) 11.44 8.54 7.14 6.76 6.30 6.57 10.26 8.24 4.78 6.17 5.09 4.2

Notes:

[1] Sum of Exports and Imports of Goods and Services/GDP (%)

[2] Composite Index with values from -2.50 to 2.50, higher absolute numbers suggest better level of maturity and responsiveness of government institutions

[3] Eurostat and Moody's

[4] Euro adopted in 1999


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Moody’s Related Research

Credit Opinion:

»

Austria, Government of Special Comments:

» Austrian RLGs: New Stability Pact Is Credit Positive, but Implementation Will Be Key, April

2011 (132397)

» Assessing the Effect of a Potential Greek Default, May 2011 (133335)

» Sovereign Credit Risk in Eurozone Countries Under Stress, December 2010 (129633)

Rating Methodology:

» Sovereign Bond Ratings, June 2008 (109490)

» Sovereign Methodology Update. Narrowing the Gap – a Clarification of Moody’s Approach to

Local Vs. Foreign Currency Government Bond Ratings. February 2010 (118820)

Statistical Handbook:

» Moody’s Statistical Handbook – Country Credit. November 2010 (128593)

Special Report:

» Aaa Sovereign Monitor, January 2011 (129433)

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication ofthis report and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients.

http://www.moodys.com/research/Austria-Government-of-Credit-Opinion?lang=en&cy=global&docid=COP_76100http://www.moodys.com/research/Austria-Government-of-Credit-Opinion?lang=en&cy=global&docid=COP_76100http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_133335http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_133335http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_129633http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_129633http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_109490http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_109490http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_118820http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_118820http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_118820http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_128593http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_128593http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_129433http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_129433http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_129433http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_128593http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_118820http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_118820http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_109490http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_129633http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_133335http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_132397http://www.moodys.com/research/Austria-Government-of-Credit-Opinion?lang=en&cy=global&docid=COP_76100


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GLOBAL SOVEREIGN

Report Number: 133549

AuthorKathrin Muehlbronner

Senior Production Associate Judy Torre

© 2011 Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ARE MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC.'S (“MIS”) CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDRISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MIS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THA

AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATEDFINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOTLIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OFCURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDRATINGS ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. CREDIT RATINGS DO NCOMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MIS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGSWITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OEACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONOF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESO LD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE F OR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PAIN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENTinformation contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibilithuman or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and frosources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources . However, MOODY’S is not aauditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstanceshall MOODY’S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, orrelating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY’S or any o

directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation,communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory orincidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY’S is advised in advance of the possibility ofsuch damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements ofopinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information containedherein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling. NO WARRANTY, EXPREOR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOOF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNERWHATSOEVER.

MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debtsecurities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, pto assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 toapproximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and ratinprocesses. Information regarding certain af filiations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually atwww.moodys.com under the heading “Shareholder Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY’S af filiate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657,

which holds Australian Financial Services L icense no. 336969. Th is document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” witthe meaning of section 761G of the Corpora tions Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you re presenMOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the e ntity represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of Corporations Act 2001.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody’s Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) are MJKK’s currentopinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt- like securities. In such a case, “MIS” in th eforegoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with “MJKK”.

MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agenc y subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., wh ich is wholly owned by Moody’s OverseasHoldings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.

This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer , not on the equity securities of the issuer or form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based onthis credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.
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anhang4 juni2011 - austria _moodys

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