“from swedish and european perspectives” · “big data analytics enables an entirely new...
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INNOVATIVE CARE MODELS
“FROM SWEDISH AND EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES”
Luleå, Sweden
INNOVATIVE CARE MODELS
“FROM SWEDISH AND EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES”
“Beyond IT - About health in a digital era”
Ekholm, Anders , Jebari, Karim Fredrik Nilsson,
Sara Riggare, Drasko Markovic, Erik Wetter,
Jenny Wahlgren, Jesper Olsson,
Anna Krohwinkel, Hans Winberg, Jon Rognes,
Britt-Marie Ahrnell, Patrik Sundström,
Fredrik Lindencrona, Tomas Bokström,
Ing-Marie Wieselgren
Research report 2016:2, 233 pages.
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• TOP-RANKED ON THE EU INNOVATION SCOREBOARD
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• A BALANCE BETWEEN SOCIALISTIC/DEMOCRATIC AND INDIVIDUAL VALUES!
“We live longer, are healthier
and have higher
requirements for better and
more personalized services.”
- Vinnova, Sweden
Source: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley
(USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany),
SCB.
AT LEAST HALF OF THE SWEDES
BORN TODAY WILL AGE BEYOND
100 YEARS
“Den åldrande befolkningen”, Läkartidningen, nr 48, 2010-11-30.
Source: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany).
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Gini livslängdår 1751-2010Gini lifespan
1751-2010
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40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
1990 -92 -94 -96 -98 -00 -02 -04 -06 -08 2010
Grundskola Gymnasial Eftergymnasial
Kvinnor
Antal år
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
1990 -92 -94 -96 -98 -00 -02 -04 -06 -08 2010
Män
Antal år
Source: Folkhälsan (Peoples Health) in Sweden, Annual report, 2012, SoS and FHI.
Women MenYears Years
9 years 10-12 years 13+ years
Kvinnor svår ohälsa
Kvinnor måttlig ohälsa
Kvinnor lätt ohälsa
Kvinnor full hälsa
Män svår ohälsa
Män måttlig ohälsa
Män lätt ohälsa
Män full hälsa
“HOW MANY PERSONS EACH WORKING PERSON NEED TO TEND FOR”
20 % increase
between 2010 -
2030
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
12 000
13 000
Ble
kin
ge lä
n
Dala
rnas lä
n
Gotla
nds lä
n
Gävle
borg
s lä
n
Halla
nds lä
n
Jäm
tlands lä
n
Jönköpin
gs lä
n
Kalm
ar
län
Kro
noberg
s lä
n
Norr
bottens lä
n
Skåne lä
n
Sto
ckholm
s lä
n
Söderm
anla
nds lä
n
Uppsala
län
Värm
lands lä
n
Väste
rbottens lä
n
Väste
rnorr
lands lä
n
Västm
anla
nds lä
n
Västr
a G
öta
lands lä
n
Öre
bro
län
Öste
rgötla
nds lä
n
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
Brist på antal årsarbetare i äldreomsorgen 2030 Brist som andel av arbetsför befolkning
Total need: 65 000 staff
Worst counties: Gotland, Norrbotten, Dalarna and Västerbotten
Lack of staff in elder care 2030 Lack as % of all workers
Source: NST, Tromsö
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• NEW COLLABORATIVE MODELS NEEDED?
INNOVATIVE CARE MODELS
“FROM SWEDISH AND EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES”
D I G I T I S A T I O N
&
D I G I T A L I S A T I O N
Speed
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
0,01
0,1
1
10
100
0
Mbit/s
GPRSEDGE
WCDMAEVDO
HSPA
HSPA+
LTE
UMBLatency
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
100
200
300
400
500
0
ms
LTE
UMBHSPA+
HSPA
EVDO
WCDMA
EDGE
GPRS
2000
12% had a mobile
phone.
2008
50% had a mobile
phone.
Industry 4.0
Smart Homes and Environments
The Quantified Self
Apple Siri
Amazon Alexa
Google Assistant
…
Lalala
Cyber-Physical SystemsDevices in the environment, worn and ’inside’
Kinseowear
Ouijiband
Big Data
Analytics
Exponential
Growth of Data
Artificial IntelligenceMachine Learning – Deep Learning
“BIG DATA ANALYTICS ENABLES AN ENTIRELY NEW
EPISTEMOLOGICAL APPROACH FOR MAKING
SENSE OF THE WORLD; RATHER THAN TESTING A
THEORY BY ANALYSING RELEVANT DATA, NEW
DATA ANALYTICS SEEK TO GAIN INSIGHTS BORN
FROM THE DATA”.
Source: Kitchin R. “Big Data, new epistemologies and paradigm shifts”, Big Data & Society 1(1), 2014
”Big Data Analytics will bring
profound changes to our health systems.
For example,
by analyzing whether a person through
life tends to pay bills on time,
we can predict with accuracy
how well medication will be taken.”
-- ALEC2017, Luleå, 1-2 February 2017
Dr Robert Wah
Global Chief Medical Officer
Computer Sciences
Corporation
-- Dr Robert Wah, ALEC2017, Luleå, 1-2 February 2017
T. Vigen, Spurious Correlations, Hachette Books 2015
“ BIG BROTHER
IS
WATCHING YOU!
”
- From the novel ‘1984’ by Orson Welles (1949)
INNOVATIVE CARE MODELS
“FROM SWEDISH AND EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES”
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• FLEXIBLE AND CONNECTED HEALTH SYSTEMS ARE REQUIRED!
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• VERY HARD TO DELIVER CARE WHILE SPANNING REGIONAL BORDERS
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• STILL NOT VERY CONNECTED
• HEALTH SYSTEMS IN ISOLATION!
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• THE INITIAL CONTACT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MAINLY INTERNET-BASED
• SUPPORTED BY EXPERT SYSTEMS?
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• THE CHALLENGE IS TO ALLOW PERSONAL FLEXIBILITY IN OFTEN RIGID AND
COMPLEX CARE PROCESSES (BREAK THE SILOS)
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• AUTONOMY!
Intersectorial services
Intra-
sectorial
services
12,0%
12,5%
13,0%
13,5%
14,0%
14,5%
15,0%
15,5%
16,0%
16,5%
17,0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Utö kad sjuklighet
Uppskjuten sjuklighet
Ko mprimerad sjuklighet
Increased unhealth
Postponed unhealth
Compressed unhealth
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• COLLABORATIVE CARE MODELS
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• INITIAL INCREASE IN DO IT YOURSELF CARE
Increasing needs and expectations
A reduction of resources is required
Sociotechnical innovation is the key
You Matter!
INNOVATIVE CARE MODELS
“FROM SWEDISH AND EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES”