apresentação do diretor de assuntos internacionais e gestão de
TRANSCRIPT
Apresentação do Diretor de Assuntos Internacionais e Gestão de Riscos Corporativos do Banco Central do Brasil, Tiago Couto Berriel, em evento organizado pelo Bank of Finland, na cidade de Helsinque, Finlândia, em 22 de novembro de 2016, por ocasião da celebração do vigésimo-quinto
aniversário daquela instituição (BOFIT 25th Anniversary Conference).
Helsinque, 22 de novembro de 2016.
Tiago BerrielDeputy Governor for International Affairs
and Corporate Risk Management
BOFIT Anniversary ConferenceHelsinki, Finland
November, 22nd 2016
2
Outline
1. Ample Global liquidity (UMP) and its effects on EMEs and Brazil
2. Effects of capital flows surge in Brazil (2009-2012)
3. Benign interregnum or (gradual but volatile) transition to global
policy normalization
4. Brazilian economy is resilient to go through this transition
5. Conclusions
3
Ample Global liquidity (UMP)
and its effects on EME and
Brazil
4
Global UMP and its Potential Effects for Emerging Economies
• After end-2008 crisis, advanced economies pursued unconventional monetarypolicies to reinvigorate economic activity
• EMEs economies were affected by sudden floods of capital, and were subjectedto effects like:
High values for assets price and equity prices
Exchange rate appreciation
Increased corporate forex exposure
5
Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16O
ct-0
6
Ap
r-0
7
Oct
-07
Ap
r-0
8
Oct
-08
Ap
r-0
9
Oct
-09
Ap
r-1
0
Oct
-10
Ap
r-1
1
Oct
-11
Ap
r-1
2
Oct
-12
Ap
r-1
3
Oct
-13
Ap
r-1
4
Oct
-14
Ap
r-1
5
Oct
-15
Ap
r-1
6
Oct
-16
Tota
l val
ue
(U
SD T
rilli
on
)
Central Bank Balance Sheet (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ)
Source: Bloomberg
6
Capital Flows Surge in EME and Latin America 2009-2013
Source: IMF, BIS
7
Capital Flows Surge in LA: Country Evolution (2009-2012)
Source: IMF, BIS
8
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100ja
n 0
6
jul 0
6
jan 0
7
jul 0
7
jan 0
8
jul 0
8
jan 0
9
jul 0
9
jan 1
0
jul 1
0
jan 1
1
jul 1
1
jan 1
2
jul 1
2
trade financial total
Financial and Trade related net capital inflows in Brazil: Surge Evidence
Source: BCB
Net FX Inflows
US
$ b
illio
n–
12
Month
Flo
ws
9
Risk Premium thru BBBs and BBs: Brazil bellow average in 2010-2013
Source: Bloomberg
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Jan-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Brasil Average BBs Average BBBs
5Y CDS (*)
bas
is p
oin
ts
*through November 11th
10
Effects of capital flows surge in
Brazil (2009-2012)
11
Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rate (*) Appreciation
Source: BCB
Jun
94
=10
0
R$
/ U
S$
* 15-currency basket
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140Ja
n-0
9
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
Real Effective Exchange Rate - LHS Nominal Exchange Rate - RHS
12
International Reserves Accumulation
Source: BCB
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Sep
20
16
USD
Bill
ion
International Reserves - Brazil
13
Policy Responses in Brazil involved various tools
• Prudential measures
• Central bank intervention
• IOF tax as a capital flows management tool
Quantitative effects on each of these measures to decreasemacroeconomic volatility due to capital inflows are still a matter ofresearch.
14
Benign interregnum or (gradual
but volatile) transition to global
policy normalization
15
Context suggested a transition to normalization in a relatively smooth path:
Supportive monetary condition maintains risk appetite for EME´s assets
Improvement in growth expectations for China and certain accommodation
in commodity prices
Relative recovery in emerging markets asset prices
But EME will be subjected to bouts of volatility along the transition:
Impacts from Brexit had been short lived and reversed through time
Uncertainty based on yield curve movements after USA´s elections risks
Transition to Normalization in US amid UMP in other globe areas
16
Benign Interregnum: Low yields and high liquidity are yet prevailing
Source: BCB, Bloomberg.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6N
ov-0
8
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
0
No
v-1
1
No
v-1
2
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
4
No
v-1
5
No
v-1
6
US UK DE JP CH
10 Year Government Bond Yields (%)
(%)
17
Transition with Volatility: EME´s yields and forex movements
Source: Bloomberg
Sustained recovery in EME´s currencies despite short term (after Nov) movements
Exchange – Emerging MarketsCurrencies and 5-yr bond yields variation (%)
after November
Yie
ldV
ari
ati
on
(p.p
)
Ap
r2
01
3 =
10
0
Currencies variation* Germany bonds used for Eurozone
18
Transition with Volatility: EME´s risk premiums
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream
EME: Despite recent volatility risk premiums were relatively well behaved
Sovereign CDS – 5YR
Selected EMECDS – Emerging Markets
TurkeySouth Africa
BrazilRussiaMexico
20162015
19
Brazilian Economy is
resilient to global
monetary policy transition
20
Resilience Factors in Brazil: Financial System and External Accounts
• Low overall exposure to forex liabilities including corporates, large
domestic investor base for public debt financing and sound current
account financing through FDI assure resilience to (negative)
headwinds from the international economy and limit contagion from
external volatility
• Financial system with solid capital structure and limited leverage,
despite historically large recession.
21
Resilience Factors in Brazil: Fiscal and Monetary Policies
• Fiscal Reforms are underway. Constitutional Amendment that leads
to a government expenditure cap is to be approved this year. Social
security reform will be discussed in congress next year.
• Monetary policy transparent in its goal to achieve the inflation target
of 4.5% in 2017 and 2018.
22
Brazil’s Liabilities Position: Relatively Low Exposure to Forex
Brazil’s International Investment Position
Source: BCB
USD bn 557.8
USD bn 774.1
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Assets Liabilities
Sep 2016 Position
Total: USD bn 1,464.7
Liabilities denominated
in BRL
Liabilities denominated
in other currencies
Assets
USD bn 906.9
23
Brazil: Solid External Debt and International Reserves Positions(*)
Source: BCB
*debt in Sep/16; reserves on November 17th
373.5
-25.8
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
international reserves FX swap position
373.5
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
20
16
*debt reserves
24
Brazilian Case: Low Corporate´s Unhedged Forex Exposure
Source: BCB (Financial Stability Report Sep 16)
35,8%
11,1%
9,8%
22,3%
21%
exporter
non exporter with hedge
non exporter without hedge - headquarters abroad
non exporter without hedge - with assets abroad
non exporter without hedge - others
Debt in Foreign Currency by Type of Debtor (*)
*through June 2016
25
Brazil: Solid Net Foreign Direct Investment Flows (*)
Source: BCB
* According to the new methodology as of 1995
73,2
-24,4
7,2
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120S
ep-0
1
Sep-0
2
Sep-0
3
Sep-0
4
Sep-0
5
Sep-0
6
Sep-0
7
Sep-0
8
Sep-0
9
Sep-1
0
Sep-1
1
Sep-1
2
Sep-1
3
Sep-1
4
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
6
direct investment liabilities
fixed income
equities and investment funds
US
$ b
illio
nin
12 m
onth
s
26
Conclusions
27
Conclusions and Possible Topics for Discussion
• Spillovers and spillbacks of UMP has received great interest and sparkedrenewed efforts of international policy coordination in a global scale.
• These spillovers and spillbacks of UMP and a normalization process will mostlikely affect the policy mix in EME.
• No silver bullet (just keep doing the right things): Sound fiscal policies that boost confidence International Reserves Monetary Policy seeking a clear target Regulatory framework that guarantees stable financial system
Tiago BerrielDeputy Governor for International Affairs
and Corporate Risk Management
BOFIT Anniversary ConferenceHelsinki, Finland
November, 22nd 2016
Thank You!