arthur taylor meteorological development laboratory, national weather service january 20, 2008
DESCRIPTION
Storm Surge Forecasting Practices, Tools for Emergency Managers, A Probabilistic Storm Surge Model Based on Ensembles and Past Error Distributions. Arthur Taylor Meteorological Development Laboratory, National Weather Service January 20, 2008. Hurricane Storm Surge Damage. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Storm Surge Forecasting Practices, Tools for Emergency Managers, A Probabilistic Storm Surge Model Based on Ensembles and Past Error DistributionsArthur TaylorMeteorological Development Laboratory, National Weather ServiceJanuary 20, 2008
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Hurricane Storm Surge DamageAerial Photo overlay of Katrina 2005 storm surge over Hancock County, MississippiThe greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge.
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
IntroductionThe Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is the NWSs operational hurricane storm surge model.The NWS uses composites of its results to predict potential storm surge flooding for evacuation planningNational Hurricane Center (NHC) begins operational SLOSH runs 24 hours before forecast hurricane landfall
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
IntroductionNHCs operational SLOSH runs are based on a single NHC forecast track and its associated parameters.When provided accurate input, SLOSH results are within 20% of high water marks.Track and intensity prediction errors cause large errors in SLOSH forecasts and can overwhelm the SLOSH results.
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Hurricane Ivan: A case study
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Probabilistic Storm Surge MethodologyUse an ensemble of SLOSH runs to create probabilistic storm surge (p-surge) Intended to be used operationally so it is based on NHCs official advisory.P-surges ensemble perturbations are determined by statistics of past performance of the advisories.P-surge uses a representative storm for each portion of the error distribution space rather than a random sampling
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Input Parameters for SLOSHA single run of SLOSH requires the following parameters:Track (Location and Forward Speed)PressureRadius of Maximum Winds (Rmax)
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Errors used by P-surgeThe ensemble is based on distributions of the following:Cross track error (impacts Location)Along track error (impacts Forward Speed)Intensity error (impacts Pressure)Rmax error
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
P-surge Error DistributionsThe error distributions for cross track, along track, and intensity are determined by:Calculating the regression of the yearly mean errorAssuming a normal error distributionDetermining the standard deviation (sigma) based on:
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Regression of Yearly Mean Error To calculate the yearly mean error:The forecasts from the advisories were compared with observations, represented by the 0 hour information from the corresponding later advisories.The errors were averaged by yearRegression curves were calculated and plotted for each forecast hour (12, 24, 36, )A mean error value was determined from where the regression curve crossed a chosen year.
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Example of 24-hour Cross Track Error Regression PlotThe 2004 error regression value 34.8 was chosen as the 24-hour mean cross track error
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
Rmax Error DistributionsFor Rmax, we cant assume a normal distribution since the error is bounded. To calculate the Rmax error distributions:Group the values in bins according to:
The forecasts from the advisories were matched to the 0 hour estimate, which was treated as an observationThe probability density function (PDF) and cumulative density function (CDF) were plotted for each bin and forecast hour (12, 24, 36, )Since we chose to use 3 storm sizes (small 30%, medium 40%, large 30%) we determined the 0.15, 0.5, and 0.85 values of the CDF for each bin and forecast hour.
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
PDF for Rmax Errors Bin 0-3
Chart1
0100111
0001001
0101011
0011110
0100011
0010352
0002222
0000401
0111132
0000332
0222234
1243952
1104648
3457977
3711131688
7142122202016
2225262826179
2529363313166
12594584521153
21101710723
5742220
All
0100111
0001001
0101011
0011110
0100011
0010352
0002222
0000401
0111132
0000332
0222234
1243952
1104648
3457977
3711131688
7142122202016
2225262826179
2529363313166
12594584521153
21101710723
5742220
12Hr Fcst
24Hr Fcst
36Hr Fcst
48Hr Fcst
72Hr Fcst
96Hr Fcst
120Hr Fcst
Error (Fcst - Obs) by 5
Count
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 0 (5..15 sm)
Chart2
0.00469483570.0046948357
0.00469483570.0093896714
0.0140845070.0234741784
0.0140845070.0375586854
0.03286384980.0704225352
0.1032863850.1737089202
0.1173708920.2910798122
0.58685446010.8779342723
0.09859154930.9765258216
0.02347417841
Error (Fcst - Obs) by 5
Cumulative distribution
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 0 (5..15 sm)
RmaxBinA0
BinErrorFcst0Fcst1Fcst2Fcst3Fcst4Fcst5Fcst6
0-2000000000
0-1950000000
0-1900000000
0-1850000000
0-1800000000
0-1750000000
0-1700000000
0-1650000000
0-1600000000
0-1550000000
0-1500000000
0-1450000000
0-1400000000
0-1350000000
0-1300000000
0-1250000000
0-1200000000
0-1150000000
0-1100000000
0-1050000000
0-1000000000
0-950000000
0-900100111
0-850001001
0-800101011
0-750011110
0-700100011
0-650010352
0-600002222
0-550000401
0-500111132
0-450000332
0-400222234
0-3512439520.00469483570.0046948357
0-3011046480.00469483570.0093896714
0-2534579770.0140845070.0234741784
0-2037111316880.0140845070.0375586854
0-1571421222020160.03286384980.0704225352
0-1022252628261790.1032863850.1737089202
0-525293633131660.1173708920.2910798122
00125945845211530.58685446010.8779342723
05211017107230.09859154930.9765258216
01057422200.02347417841
0150000000213
0200000000
0250000000
0300000000
0350000000
0400000000
0450000000
0500000000
0550000000
0600000000
0650000000
0700000000
0750000000
0800000000
0850000000
0900000000
0950000000
01000000000
01050000000
01100000000
01150000000
01200000000
01250000000
01300000000
01350000000
01400000000
01450000000
01500000000
01550000000
01600000000
01650000000
01700000000
01750000000
01800000000
01850000000
01900000000
01950000000
02000000000
All
0100001
2000110
1111000
2111000
1010000
2100010
0210000
1010001
0211100
4100000
1110000
5423011
12743211
403118151455
43178109413
2328151013145
15172920131411
81314181398
36957105
32614767
1122534
0200000
12Hr Fcst
24Hr Fcst
36Hr Fcst
48Hr Fcst
72Hr Fcst
96Hr Fcst
120Hr Fcst
Error (Fcst - Obs) by 5
Count
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 3 (35..45 sm)
RmaxBinA3
BinErrorFcst0Fcst1Fcst2Fcst3Fcst4Fcst5Fcst6
3-2000000000
3-1950000000
3-1900000000
3-1850000000
3-1800000000
3-1750000000
3-1700000000
3-1650000000
3-1600000000
3-1550000000
3-1500000000
3-1450000000
3-1400000000
3-1350000000
3-1300000000
3-1250000000
3-1200000000
3-1150000000
3-1100000000
3-1050000000
3-1000000000
3-950000000
3-900000000
3-850000000
3-800000000
3-750000000
3-700000000
3-650100001
3-602000110
3-551111000
3-502111000
3-451010000
3-402100010
3-350210000
3-301010001
3-250211100
3-204100000
3-151110000
3-105423011
3-512743211
30403118151455
3543178109413
3102328151013145
31515172920131411
32081314181398
32536957105
33032614767
3351122534
3400200000
3450000000
3500000000
3550000000
3600000000
3650000000
3700000000
3750000000
3800000000
3850000000
3900000000
3950000000
31000000000
31050000000
31100000000
31150000000
31200000000
31250000000
31300000000
31350000000
31400000000
31450000000
31500000000
31550000000
31600000000
31650000000
31700000000
31750000000
31800000000
31850000000
31900000000
31950000000
32000000000
All
0020010
0312100
0032120
0112020
0110100
0502000
1001101
0001111
0011001
1330100
2540203
6431112
101077655
12191191084
341719201242
1551028159434231
72714345352821
31394544412325
17162625212923
9101112171211
2612131175
0003112
12Hr Fcst
24Hr Fcst
36Hr Fcst
48Hr Fcst
72Hr Fcst
96Hr Fcst
120Hr Fcst
Error (Fcst - Obs) by 5
Count
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 2 (25..35 sm)
RmaxBinA2
BinErrorFcst0Fcst1Fcst2Fcst3Fcst4Fcst5Fcst6
2-2000000000
2-1950000000
2-1900000000
2-1850000000
2-1800000000
2-1750000000
2-1700000000
2-1650000000
2-1600000000
2-1550000000
2-1500000000
2-1450000000
2-1400000000
2-1350000000
2-1300000000
2-1250000000
2-1200000000
2-1150000000
2-1100000000
2-1050000000
2-1000000000
2-950000000
2-900000000
2-850000000
2-800000000
2-750020010
2-700312100
2-650032120
2-600112020
2-550110100
2-500502000
2-451001101
2-400001111
2-350011001
2-301330100
2-252540203
2-206431112
2-15101077655
2-1012191191084
2-5341719201242
201551028159434231
2572714345352821
21031394544412325
21517162625212923
2209101112171211
2252612131175
2300003112
2350000000
2400000000
2450000000
2500000000
2550000000
2600000000
2650000000
2700000000
2750000000
2800000000
2850000000
2900000000
2950000000
21000000000
21050000000
21100000000
21150000000
21200000000
21250000000
21300000000
21350000000
21400000000
21450000000
21500000000
21550000000
21600000000
21650000000
21700000000
21750000000
21800000000
21850000000
21900000000
21950000000
22000000000
All
0000101
0003022
2021302
0122112
0020021
1022201
0111100
1013120
1210013
0021220
2027333
14611446
5685474
691714795
82112912184
25272730172110
44474934302022
221157122111705439
64535643472130
19352220232415
111519178612
3332330
12Hr Fcst
24Hr Fcst
36Hr Fcst
48Hr Fcst
72Hr Fcst
96Hr Fcst
120Hr Fcst
Error (Fcst - Obs) by 5
Count
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 1 (15..25 sm)
RmaxBinA1
BinErrorFcst0Fcst1Fcst2Fcst3Fcst4Fcst5Fcst6
1-2000000000
1-1950000000
1-1900000000
1-1850000000
1-1800000000
1-1750000000
1-1700000000
1-1650000000
1-1600000000
1-1550000000
1-1500000000
1-1450000000
1-1400000000
1-1350000000
1-1300000000
1-1250000000
1-1200000000
1-1150000000
1-1100000000
1-1050000000
1-1000000000
1-950000000
1-900000000
1-850000101
1-800003022
1-752021302
1-700122112
1-650020021
1-601022201
1-550111100
1-501013120
1-451210013
1-400021220
1-352027333
1-3014611446
1-255685474
1-20691714795
1-1582112912184
1-1025272730172110
1-544474934302022
10221157122111705439
1564535643472130
11019352220232415
115111519178612
1203332330
1250000000
1300000000
1350000000
1400000000
1450000000
1500000000
1550000000
1600000000
1650000000
1700000000
1750000000
1800000000
1850000000
1900000000
1950000000
11000000000
11050000000
11100000000
11150000000
11200000000
11250000000
11300000000
11350000000
11400000000
11450000000
11500000000
11550000000
11600000000
11650000000
11700000000
11750000000
11800000000
11850000000
11900000000
11950000000
12000000000
Probabilistic Storm Surge 2008
CDF for Rmax Errors Bin 0-3
Chart1
0.00469483570.00502512560.00534759360.00571428570.00684931510.00862068970.0126582278
0.00938967140.01005025130.01069518720.01142857140.01369863010.01724137930.0253164557
0.0140845070.01507537690.01604278070.01714285710.02054794520.0258620690.0379746835
0.01877934270.02010050250.02139037430.02285714290.02739726030.03448275860.0506329114
0.02347417840.02512562810.02673796790.02857142860.03424657530.04310344830.0632911392
0.02816901410.03015075380.03208556150.03428571430.04109589040.05172413790.0759493671
0.03286384980.03517587940.03743315510.040.04794520550.06896551720.0886075949
0.03755868540.0402010050.04278074870.04571428570.05479452050.07758620690.1012658228
0.04225352110.04522613070.04812834220.05142857140.06164383560.08620689660.1139240506
0.04694835680.05025125630.05347593580.05714285710.06849315070.09482758620.1265822785
0.05164319250.05527638190.05882352940.06285714290.07534246580.10344827590.1392405063
0.05633802820.06030150750.0641711230.06857142860.08219178080.11206896550.1518987342
0.06103286380.06532663320.06951871660.07428571430.08904109590.12068965520.164556962
0.06572769950.07035175880.07486631020.080.0958904110.12931034480.1772151899
0.07042253520.07537688440.08021390370.08571428570.1027397260.13793103450.1898734177
0.07511737090.08040201010.08556149730.09142857140.10958904110.14655172410.2025316456
0.07981220660.08542713570.09090909090.09714285710.11643835620.15517241380.2151898734
0.08450704230.09045226130.09625668450.10285714290.12328767120.16379310340.2278481013
0.08920187790.09547738690.10160427810.10857142860.13013698630.17241379310.2405063291
0.09389671360.10050251260.10695187170.11428571430.13698630140.18103448280.253164557
0.09859154930.10552763820.11229946520.120.14383561640.18965517240.2658227848
0.1032863850.11055276380.11764705880.12571428570.15068493150.19827586210.2784810127
0.10798122070.11557788940.12299465240.13142857140.15753424660.20689655170.2911392405
0.11267605630.12060301510.1283422460.13714285710.16438356160.21551724140.3037974684
0.1173708920.12562814070.13368983960.14285714290.17123287670.2241379310.3164556962
0.12206572770.13065326630.13903743320.14857142860.17808219180.23275862070.3291139241
0.12676056340.1356783920.14438502670.15428571430.18493150680.24137931030.3417721519
0.13145539910.14070351760.14973262030.160.19178082190.250.3544303797
0.13615023470.14572864320.15508021390.16571428570.1986301370.25862068970.3670886076
0.14084507040.15075376880.16042780750.17142857140.20547945210.26724137930.3797468354
0.14553990610.15577889450.16577540110.17714285710.21232876710.2758620690.3924050633
0.15023474180.16080402010.17112299470.18285714290.21917808220.28448275860.4050632911
0.15492957750.16582914570.17647058820.18857142860.22602739730.29310344830.417721519
0.15962441310.17085427140.18181818180.19428571430.23287671230.30172413790.4303797468
0.16431924880.1758793970.18716577540.20.23972602740.31034482760.4430379747
0.16901408450.18090452260.1925133690.20571428570.24657534250.31896551720.4556962025
0.17370892020.18592964820.19786096260.21142857140.25342465750.32758620690.4683544304
0.17840375590.19597989950.20320855620.21714285710.26027397260.33620689660.4810126582
0.18309859150.20100502510.20855614970.22285714290.26712328770.34482758620.4936708861
0.18779342720.20603015080.21390374330.22857142860.27397260270.35344827590.5063291139
0.19248826290.21105527640.21925133690.23428571430.28082191780.36206896550.5189873418
0.19718309860.2160804020.22459893050.240.28767123290.37068965520.5316455696
0.20187793430.22110552760.22994652410.24571428570.29452054790.37931034480.5443037975
0.206572770.22613065330.24064171120.25142857140.3013698630.38793103450.5569620253
0.21126760560.23115577890.24598930480.25714285710.30821917810.39655172410.5696202532
0.21596244130.24120603020.25133689840.26285714290.31506849320.40517241380.582278481
0.2206572770.24623115580.2566844920.26857142860.32191780820.41379310340.5949367089
0.22535211270.25125628140.26203208560.27428571430.32876712330.42241379310.6075949367
0.23004694840.2562814070.26737967910.280.33561643840.43103448280.6202531646
0.2347417840.26130653270.27807486630.28571428570.34246575340.43965517240.6329113924
0.23943661970.26633165830.28342245990.29142857140.34931506850.44827586210.6455696203
0.24413145540.27135678390.28877005350.29714285710.35616438360.45689655170.6582278481
0.24882629110.27638190950.29411764710.30285714290.36301369860.46551724140.6708860759
0.25352112680.28140703520.29946524060.30857142860.36986301370.4741379310.6835443038
0.25821596240.28643216080.30481283420.31428571430.37671232880.48275862070.6962025316
0.26291079810.29145728640.31016042780.320.38356164380.49137931030.7088607595
0.26760563380.29648241210.31550802140.32571428570.39041095890.50.7215189873
0.27230046950.30150753770.3208556150.33142857140.3972602740.50862068970.7341772152
0.27699530520.30653266330.32620320860.33714285710.4041095890.51724137930.746835443
0.28169014080.31155778890.33155080210.34285714290.41095890410.5258620690.7594936709
0.28638497650.31658291460.33689839570.34857142860.41780821920.53448275860.7721518987
0.29107981220.32160804020.34224598930.35428571430.42465753420.54310344830.7848101266
0.29577464790.32663316580.34759358290.360.43150684930.55172413790.7974683544
0.30046948360.33165829150.35294117650.36571428570.43835616440.56034482760.8101265823
0.30516431920.33668341710.35828877010.37142857140.44520547950.56896551720.8227848101
0.31455399060.34170854270.36363636360.37714285710.45205479450.57758620690.835443038
0.31924882630.34673366830.36898395720.38285714290.45890410960.58620689660.8481012658
0.3239436620.3517587940.37433155080.38857142860.47260273970.59482758620.8607594937
0.32863849770.35678391960.37967914440.39428571430.48630136990.60344827590.8734177215
0.33333333330.36180904520.3850267380.40.49315068490.61206896550.8860759494
0.3380281690.36683417090.39037433160.40571428570.50.62068965520.8987341772
0.34272300470.37185929650.39572192510.41142857140.50684931510.62931034480.9113924051
0.34741784040.37688442210.40106951870.41714285710.51369863010.63793103450.9240506329
0.35211267610.38190954770.40641711230.42285714290.52054794520.64655172410.9367088608
0.35680751170.38693467340.41176470590.42857142860.52739726030.65517241380.9493670886
0.36150234740.3919597990.41711229950.43428571430.53424657530.66379310340.9620253165
0.36619718310.39698492460.4224598930.440.54109589040.67241379310.9746835443
0.37089201880.40201005030.42780748660.44571428570.54794520550.68103448280.9873417722
0.37558685450.40703517590.43315508020.45142857140.55479452050.68965517241
0.38028169010.41206030150.43850267380.45714285710.56164383560.6982758621
0.38497652580.41708542710.44385026740.46285714290.56849315070.7068965517
0.38967136150.42211055280.4491978610.46857142860.57534246580.7155172414
0.39436619720.42713567840.45454545450.47428571430.58219178080.724137931
0.39906103290.4321608040.45989304810.480.58904109590.7327586207
0.40375586850.43718592960.46524064170.48571428570.5958904110.7413793103
0.40845070420.44221105530.47058823530.49142857140.6027397260.75
0.41314553990.44723618090.47593582890.49714285710.60958904110.7586206897
0.41784037560.45226130650.48128342250.50285714290.61643835620.7672413793
0.42253521130.45728643220.49197860960.50857142860.62328767120.775862069
0.42723004690.46231155780.49732620320.51428571430.63013698630.7844827586
0.43192488260.46733668340.50267379680.520.63698630140.7931034483
0.43661971830.4723618090.50802139040.52571428570.64383561640.8017241379
0.4413145540.47738693470.5133689840.53142857140.65068493150.8103448276
0.44600938970.48241206030.51871657750.53714285710.65753424660.8189655172
0.4553990610.48743718590.52406417110.54285714290.66438356160.8275862069
0.46009389670.49246231160.54010695190.54857142860.67123287670.8362068966
0.46478873240.49748743720.54545454550.55428571430.67808219180.8448275862
0.46948356810.50251256280.5508021390.560.68493150680.8534482759
0.47417840380.50753768840.55614973260.56571428570.69178082190.8620689655
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0.48826291080.52261306530.57219251340.58285714290.71232876710.8879310345
0.49295774650.5276381910.5775401070.58857142860.71917808220.8965517241
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0.53521126760.57788944720.62566844920.640.78082191780.974137931
0.53990610330.58793969850.63101604280.64571428570.78767123290.9827586207
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0.59154929580.64321608040.68983957220.70857142860.8630136986
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0.61032863850.66331658290.71122994650.73142857140.8904109589
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0.80751173710.69849246230.74866310160.77714285710.9520547945
0.81220657280.70351758790.75401069520.78285714290.9589041096
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0.82629107980.71859296480.77540106950.80.9794520548
0.83098591550.72361809050.78074866310.80571428570.9863013699
0.83568075120.72864321610.82887700530.81142857140.9931506849
0.84037558690.73366834170.83422459890.81714285711
0.84507042250.73869346730.83957219250.8228571429
0.84976525820.84422110550.84491978610.8285714286
0.85446009390.84924623120.85026737970.8342857143
0.85915492960.85427135680.85561497330.84
0.86384976530.85929648240.86096256680.88
0.86854460090.8643216080.86631016040.8914285714
0.87323943660.86934673370.8716577540.8971428571
0.87793427230.87437185930.87700534760.9028571429
0.8826291080.87939698490.88235294120.9085714286
0.88732394370.88442211060.88770053480.9142857143
0.89201877930.88944723620.89304812830.92
0.8967136150.89447236180.89839572190.9257142857
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0.91549295770.91457286430.91978609630.9485714286
0.92018779340.919597990.92513368980.9542857143
0.92488262910.92462311560.93048128340.96
0.92957746480.92964824120.9358288770.9657142857
0.93427230050.93467336680.94117647060.9714285714
0.93896713620.93969849250.94652406420.9771428571
0.94366197180.94472361810.95187165780.9828571429
0.94835680750.94974874370.95721925130.9885714286
0.95305164320.95477386930.96256684490.9942857143
0.95774647890.9597989950.96791443851
0.96244131460.96482412060.9732620321
0.96713615020.96984924620.9786096257
0.97183098590.97487437190.9839572193
0.97652582160.97989949750.9893048128
0.98122065730.98492462310.9946524064
0.9859154930.98994974871
0.99061032860.9949748744
0.99530516431
1
12Hr Fcst
24Hr Fcst
36Hr Fcst
48Hr Fcst
72Hr Fcst
96Hr Fcst
120Hr Fcst
Error (Fcst - Obs)
Cumulative Distribution
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 0 [5..15sm)
Chart2
0.00469483570.00502512560.00534759360.00571428570.00684931510.00862068970.0126582278
0.00938967140.01005025130.01069518720.01142857140.01369863010.01724137930.0253164557
0.0140845070.01507537690.01604278070.01714285710.02054794520.0258620690.0379746835
0.01877934270.02010050250.02139037430.02285714290.02739726030.03448275860.0506329114
0.02347417840.02512562810.02673796790.02857142860.03424657530.04310344830.0632911392
0.02816901410.03015075380.03208556150.03428571430.04109589040.05172413790.0759493671
0.03286384980.03517587940.03743315510.040.04794520550.06896551720.0886075949
0.03755868540.0402010050.04278074870.04571428570.05479452050.07758620690.1012658228
0.04225352110.04522613070.04812834220.05142857140.06164383560.08620689660.1139240506
0.04694835680.05025125630.05347593580.05714285710.06849315070.09482758620.1265822785
0.05164319250.05527638190.05882352940.06285714290.07534246580.10344827590.1392405063
0.05633802820.06030150750.0641711230.06857142860.08219178080.11206896550.1518987342
0.06103286380.06532663320.06951871660.07428571430.08904109590.12068965520.164556962
0.06572769950.07035175880.07486631020.080.0958904110.12931034480.1772151899
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0.07981220660.08542713570.09090909090.09714285710.11643835620.15517241380.2151898734
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0.09389671360.10050251260.10695187170.11428571430.13698630140.18103448280.253164557
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0.10798122070.11557788940.12299465240.13142857140.15753424660.20689655170.2911392405
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0.13615023470.14572864320.15508021390.16571428570.1986301370.25862068970.3670886076
0.14084507040.15075376880.16042780750.17142857140.20547945210.26724137930.3797468354
0.14553990610.15577889450.16577540110.17714285710.21232876710.2758620690.3924050633
0.15023474180.16080402010.17112299470.18285714290.21917808220.28448275860.4050632911
0.15492957750.16582914570.17647058820.18857142860.22602739730.29310344830.417721519
0.15962441310.17085427140.18181818180.19428571430.23287671230.30172413790.4303797468
0.16431924880.1758793970.18716577540.20.23972602740.31034482760.4430379747
0.16901408450.18090452260.1925133690.20571428570.24657534250.31896551720.4556962025
0.17370892020.18592964820.19786096260.21142857140.25342465750.32758620690.4683544304
0.17840375590.19597989950.20320855620.21714285710.26027397260.33620689660.4810126582
0.18309859150.20100502510.20855614970.22285714290.26712328770.34482758620.4936708861
0.18779342720.20603015080.21390374330.22857142860.27397260270.35344827590.5063291139
0.19248826290.21105527640.21925133690.23428571430.28082191780.36206896550.5189873418
0.19718309860.2160804020.22459893050.240.28767123290.37068965520.5316455696
0.20187793430.22110552760.22994652410.24571428570.29452054790.37931034480.5443037975
0.206572770.22613065330.24064171120.25142857140.3013698630.38793103450.5569620253
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0.21596244130.24120603020.25133689840.26285714290.31506849320.40517241380.582278481
0.2206572770.24623115580.2566844920.26857142860.32191780820.41379310340.5949367089
0.22535211270.25125628140.26203208560.27428571430.32876712330.42241379310.6075949367
0.23004694840.2562814070.26737967910.280.33561643840.43103448280.6202531646
0.2347417840.26130653270.27807486630.28571428570.34246575340.43965517240.6329113924
0.23943661970.26633165830.28342245990.29142857140.34931506850.44827586210.6455696203
0.24413145540.27135678390.28877005350.29714285710.35616438360.45689655170.6582278481
0.24882629110.27638190950.29411764710.30285714290.36301369860.46551724140.6708860759
0.25352112680.28140703520.29946524060.30857142860.36986301370.4741379310.6835443038
0.25821596240.28643216080.30481283420.31428571430.37671232880.48275862070.6962025316
0.26291079810.29145728640.31016042780.320.38356164380.49137931030.7088607595
0.26760563380.29648241210.31550802140.32571428570.39041095890.50.7215189873
0.27230046950.30150753770.3208556150.33142857140.3972602740.50862068970.7341772152
0.27699530520.30653266330.32620320860.33714285710.4041095890.51724137930.746835443
0.28169014080.31155778890.33155080210.34285714290.41095890410.5258620690.7594936709
0.28638497650.31658291460.33689839570.34857142860.41780821920.53448275860.7721518987
0.29107981220.32160804020.34224598930.35428571430.42465753420.54310344830.7848101266
0.29577464790.32663316580.34759358290.360.43150684930.55172413790.7974683544
0.30046948360.33165829150.35294117650.36571428570.43835616440.56034482760.8101265823
0.30516431920.33668341710.35828877010.37142857140.44520547950.56896551720.8227848101
0.31455399060.34170854270.36363636360.37714285710.45205479450.57758620690.835443038
0.31924882630.34673366830.36898395720.38285714290.45890410960.58620689660.8481012658
0.3239436620.3517587940.37433155080.38857142860.47260273970.59482758620.8607594937
0.32863849770.35678391960.37967914440.39428571430.48630136990.60344827590.8734177215
0.33333333330.36180904520.3850267380.40.49315068490.61206896550.8860759494
0.3380281690.36683417090.39037433160.40571428570.50.62068965520.8987341772
0.34272300470.37185929650.39572192510.41142857140.50684931510.62931034480.9113924051
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0.35211267610.38190954770.40641711230.42285714290.52054794520.64655172410.9367088608
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0.41314553990.44723618090.47593582890.49714285710.60958904110.7586206897
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0.42253521130.45728643220.49197860960.50857142860.62328767120.775862069
0.42723004690.46231155780.49732620320.51428571430.63013698630.7844827586
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0.44600938970.48241206030.51871657750.53714285710.65753424660.8189655172
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0.56338028170.61306532660.65775401070.67428571430.8219178082
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0.57276995310.62311557790.66844919790.68571428570.8356164384
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0.88732394370.88442211060.88770053480.9142857143
0.89201877930.88944723620.89304812830.92
0.8967136150.89447236180.89839572190.9257142857
0.90140845070.89949748740.90374331550.9314285714
0.90610328640.90452261310.90909090910.9371428571
0.91079812210.90954773870.91443850270.9428571429
0.91549295770.91457286430.91978609630.9485714286
0.92018779340.919597990.92513368980.9542857143
0.92488262910.92462311560.93048128340.96
0.92957746480.92964824120.9358288770.9657142857
0.93427230050.93467336680.94117647060.9714285714
0.93896713620.93969849250.94652406420.9771428571
0.94366197180.94472361810.95187165780.9828571429
0.94835680750.94974874370.95721925130.9885714286
0.95305164320.95477386930.96256684490.9942857143
0.95774647890.9597989950.96791443851
0.96244131460.96482412060.9732620321
0.96713615020.96984924620.9786096257
0.97183098590.97487437190.9839572193
0.97652582160.97989949750.9893048128
0.98122065730.98492462310.9946524064
0.9859154930.98994974871
0.99061032860.9949748744
0.99530516431
1
12Hr Fcst
24Hr Fcst
36Hr Fcst
48Hr Fcst
72Hr Fcst
96Hr Fcst
120Hr Fcst
Error (Fcst - Obs)
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 0 [5..15sm)
simp
X-12Y-12X-24Y-24X-36Y-36X-48Y-48X-72Y-72X-96Y-96X-120Y-120
-40.9667970.0046948357-94.6776860.0050251256-79.8339840.0053475936-91.0644050.0057142857-93.1884760.0068493151-92.968750.0086206897-96.7285160.0126582278
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-13.1103520.1643192488-17.2851080.175879397-18.9940930.1871657754-22.7294920.2-31.054640.2397260274-27.51460.3103448276-26.9042490.4430379747
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0.49033816430.50918635170.54494382020.61708860760.80334728030.965
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0.50.51443569550.55056179780.62341772150.81589958160.975
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0.961352657
0.9637681159
0.9661835749
0.9685990338
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0.9734299517
0.9758454106
0.9782608696
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0.9903381643
0.9927536232
0.9951690821
0.9975845411
1
12Hr Fcst
24Hr Fcst
36Hr Fcst
48Hr Fcst
72Hr Fcst
96Hr Fcst
120Hr Fcst
Error (Fcst - Obs)
Cumulative Distribution
Rmax Error Dist Fcst Bin 1 [15..25sm)
Chart2
0.00241545890.00262467190.00280898880.0031645570.00418410040.0050.0061728395
0.00483091790.00524934380.00561797750.00632911390.00836820080.010.012345679
0.00724637680.00787401570.00842696630.00949367090.01255230130.0150.0185185185
0.00966183570.01049868770.01123595510.01265822780.01673640170.020.024691358
0.01207729470.01312335960.01404494380.01582278480.02092050210.0250.0308641975
0.01449275360.01574803150.01685393260.01898734180.02510460250.030.037037037
0.01690821260.01837270340.01966292130.02215189870.02928870290.0350.0432098765
0.01932367150.02099737530.02247191010.02531645570.03347280330.040.049382716
0.02173913040.02362204720.02528089890.02848101270.03765690380.0450.0555555556
0.02415458940.02624671920.02808988760.03164556960.04184100420.050.0617283951
0.02657004830.02887139110.03089887640.03481012660.04602510460.0550.0679012346
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