asian tigers investor report october 2010

8 Economy8 Economy8 Business

作者/by Mike Wilson

OCTOBER 2010ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

OCTOBER 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy 9Business 9

has been doing to Toyota’s shares. The question is, have the shares fallen far enough? And can we expect a rapid resurgence now that the global economy is improving?

如今，全球最大汽車公司四面楚歌，正所

謂走得越快，摔得越疼。對此，沒有人比

困境中的豐田總裁豐田章男體會更深了，

受美國國會傳召，他需要就豐田公司試圖

隱瞞多款車輛存在安全缺陷的指控作出說

明。豐田公司美國銷售業績可能已受到某

種程度的損害 — 但相比豐田股份在廣大

股市所受的損失，這根本不值一提。但問

題是，股價是否已跌落到最低點？全球經

濟正日益改善，我們是否能期望豐田公司

亦可迅速復甦？

Questions, questions. So let’s start with a brief timeline. It was only 37 months ago, in April 2007, that Toyota re-took the title of global volume champion from General Motors, and only 24 months since the company announced a record US$15 billion net profit for the year to March 2008. And just 12 months since

It’s tough beIng the world’s biggest car company, because the higher you ride, the harder you tend to fall. And nobody knows this better than Akio Toyoda, the embattled president of Toyota, who’s been called to account by the US Congress over allegations that his company tried to suppress reports of known safety defects in many of its vehicle ranges. His company’s American sales performance may have taken some damage - but that’s been nothing compared to what the wider stock market

it shattered that prosperous illusion with a net annual loss of US$4.3 billion, after watching its reputation being trashed by the recall of 1.3 million vehicles over faulty seat belts.疑問多多。那麼，就從簡單的時間表說

起吧。僅僅在37個月以前，即2007年 4月，

豐田從通用手中重新奪回了全球銷量冠軍

的稱號，且距公司宣佈截至 2008 年 3 月止

季度錄得 150 億美元純利，亦僅僅 24 個月

時間。就在 12 個月前，43 億美元的年度

淨虧損使公司的繁榮興旺假像徹底粉碎，

而之前，公司更因 130 萬安全帶故障車輛

的召回而聲名狼藉。

Unfortunately, though, that was just the beginning. By last October, a panic about jamming accelerator pedals and alleged brake failures on several models had prompted the biggest recall in motoring history - amounting to some 8 million Toyota vehicles worldwide, of which 6 million were in the US alone. By January 2010 the company had suspended US sales of eight models after further complaints about brakes, Akio Toyoda

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OCTOBER 2010

Business10

accelerators, leaky oil pipes and various other matters. And only two months ago, the luxury Lexus GX 460 SUV also went off-road - in the same month that the US government imposed a record US$16.375 million fine on Toyota for failing to inform its regulators in good time of an alleged accelerator problem which, the US National Highway Safety Administration claimed, had been cited in 43 fatal accidents involving 52 deaths.不幸的是，這才僅僅是個開始。去年 10

月前，因數款車型油門踏板干擾和指稱刹

車故障所引起的恐慌，已導致汽車史上最

大規模的召回 — 全球約 800 萬輛豐田車

被召回，其中單是美國就召回 600 萬輛。

於收到有關刹車 ,加速器 ,漏油管和各種

其他問題的進一步投訴後，公司於 2010 年

1 月前已暫停 8款車輛在美國的銷售。僅

在兩個月以前，豪華版 Lexus GX 460 SUV

亦遭召回，同一個月內，美國政府就未能

及時通知監管機構指稱的加速器問題，對

豐田處以創記錄的 1,637.5 萬美元罰金，

該項索償由美國全國高速公路交通安全委

員會提出，該委員會舉證稱車輛故障已導

致 43 起致命事故，其中 52 人死亡。

All of this, of course, was happening during a grim period when worldwide car sales were already being pummelled by the worst global economic crisis in more than 30 years. The total financial damage for Toyota’s recalls has been estimated at US$2 billion - of which Toyota says that US$1.1 billion will be for recall costs and another US$900 million will result from lost sales. But some experts still worry that the long-term psychological damage to Toyota’s image is likely to be quite a lot higher.而所有這些都發生在最嚴峻的時期，此

時全球汽車銷售已受到逾 30 年來最嚴厲全

球經濟危機的嚴重打擊。豐田公司財務總

損失預計已達 20 億美元 — 豐田稱，其中

11 億美元是召回成本，另外 9億美元則是

銷售損失。但一些專家仍擔憂，豐田公司

形象的長期心理損害可能會更大。

Unsurprisingly, Toyota’s share price has taken a battering. From a high of 8,000 yen in early 2007, the stocks ended 2008 around the 3,000 yen level - a fall of more than 60%. And although 2009 saw the company lifted back into the 3,000-4,000 yen range by the generally improving state of market sentiment, it has been range-bound ever since, and it had made no progress at all by mid-May. That was a particular disappointment, given that the S&P 500 had risen by 45% during the same period and even the Nikkei 225 had managed 12%.不出意外，豐田的股價亦受到沉重打

擊。自 2007 年初的 8,000 日元高點，狂跌

到 2008 年底的 3,000 日元左右－下跌幅度

超過 60%。儘管隨著市場情緒的普遍改善，

2009 年公司股價回升至 3,000-4,000 日元

之間，但自那時起便起伏不定，5月中旬之

前毫無起色。鑒於同期標準普爾指數已升

約 45%，甚至日經 225 指數亦攀升了 12%，

這尤其令人感到失望。

Signs of an Upturn好轉跡象

Yet Toyota’s run of bad luck might be about to change. On 11th May the company announced that its accounts were moving back into the black with a net profit of 209 billion yen (US$2.4 billion) during the year to March 2010. That was quite a lot better than the 850 billion yen loss that the company had

been forecasting a year earlier. And it is perhaps no coincidence that the size of the profit almost exactly cancels out the cost of the recalls. 然而，豐田或將否極泰來。5月 11 日，

公司宣佈重新開始盈利，截至 2010 年 3 月

止年度錄得純利 2,090億日元（24億美元），

遠遠超出公司年初預測的虧損 8,500 億日

元。而利潤規模幾乎抵銷召回成本，可能

並非巧合。

Total global sales for Toyota in 2009/2010 were 7.24 million vehicles, a drop of 330,000 (4.8%) from the year-earlier levels. Of this, most of the damage happened in the relatively unimportant European market, where sales were 31.2% down at 858,000 units. North American sales also dipped by 114,000 (5.7%), but that still left 2.1 million successful sales, which was impressive under the

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

On 11th May the company announced that its accounts were moving back into the black with a net profit of 209 billion yen (US$2.4 billion) during the year to March 2010


Economy 11Business 11

circumstances. Japanese sales picked up by 9.2% to reach 2.16 million, and sales to other parts of Asia rose by 7% to 979,000 units. Other markets (Africa, Latin America, Middle East) experienced a 36.4% fall, to just 1.14 million units. 2009/2010 年豐田的全球總銷量為 724 萬

輛，較上年同期減少 330,000 輛 (4.8%)。

其中，大多數損失來自重要性相對較小

的歐洲市場，歐洲銷量下降 31.2%，為

858,000 輛。北美銷量亦減少 114,000 輛

(5.7%)，但仍成功銷售了 210 萬輛，在現

時環境下，這一數據令人印象深刻。日本

銷量上升 9.2%，達 216 萬輛，亞洲其他地

區的銷量亦增長 7% 至 979,000 輛。其他市

場（非洲 ,拉美 ,中東）下降 36.4%，僅

售出 114 萬輛。

But the message seems clear that the damage to Toyota’s North American operations has been much more slight than expected. And that’s a picture that’s being corroborated from elsewhere. Worldwide car production grew by a massive 57% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2010, according to recent figures from the Financial Times. Toyota’s year-on-year value sales in April had

been up by an impressive 24%, and its worldwide production was said to more than 80% up on the year. In the US market, the company has now begun a hefty discounting programme which has forced its main US rivals, Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, into a price war. And, crucially, Toyota has also announced a major expansion of its North American production.該跡象似乎表明，豐田北美業務的損害

遠低於預期，而且這在其他地區亦得到確

證。《金融時報》的近期數據顯示，2010

年第一季全球汽車產量大幅增長 57%（按

年）。豐田 4月份銷售額按年增長 24%，令

人印象深刻，且據稱本年度其全球產量增

長幅度將超過 80%。在美國市場，該公司

已開始實施幅度較大的優惠計劃，迫使其

主要美國競爭對手福特 ,通用及克萊斯勒

不得不加入價格戰。重要的是，豐田亦已

宣佈一項重大的北美產量拓展計劃。

Dealing with the Aftermath 善後工作

Yet, even today, the question still remains as to whether Toyota can pacify its American trade partners. US customers are still fuming at how Toyota’s bosses tried to deny the validity of the technical complaints against its products for so long before the brake and accelerator failings were finally admitted. And the US Congress itself is still far from satisfied with what it’s been calling the systematic dishonesty of a management that had lost sight of the consumer safety issue in the pursuit of profit.

時至今日，豐田是否可安撫其美國貿易

合作夥伴仍疑問重重。豐田老闆一直試圖

否認其產品技術投訴的有效性，而之後又

最終承認了刹車及加速器故障，這令美國

消費者至今仍忿忿不平。美國國會本身亦

對豐田管理層為追逐利益而忽視消費者安

全的失信行為深感不滿。

There may be further trouble in the pipeline. US legislators are known to be worried that the current price war might inflict further damage on America’s own home-grown motor manufacturers - and, at a time when the ruling Democrats are not shy about protesting at allegedly unfair trade practices, they are likely to need reassuring that Toyota is not simply loss-leading its way out of a tight situation at America’s expense. It wouldn’t be very surprising if the company found itself under fire again for a host of other misdeeds, either real or supposed, in the coming year.更多麻煩可能仍在醞釀中。據悉，美國

立法議員擔心現時的價格戰或會進一步傷

害美國本土汽車製造商，且在執政民主黨

公開表示反對所有指稱不公平貿易慣例之

際，他們或需重新保證豐田蒙受損失 ,擺

脫困境而不應由美國人買單。若來年豐田

公司再度發現因一系列其他過失（真實的

或假定的）而置身於水深火熱之中，根本

不足為奇。

But will this really dent Toyota’s ability to recover in the long term? It seems doubtful. The brake and accelerator problems may have revealed a serious structural shortcoming in the management’s style; but a hundred or so complaints in the US are unlikely to persuade buyers in China, Latin America or the Middle East to switch brands. The sheer scale of the company’s dominance, and the perceived reliability of its products, is likely to win through. Toyota’s shares are looking cheap.這真的會長期削弱豐田復甦的能力嗎？

似乎令人懷疑。刹車及加速器故障可能揭

示豐田的管理模式存在重大結構缺陷；但

美國的上百條投訴不可能說服中國 ,拉美

或中東的買家改買其他品牌。該公司顯赫

的主導地位及其產品被認可的可靠性，可

能會幫助豐田贏得最終的勝利。豐田的股

價似乎過低。|AT|

For any enquiries or comments about this article please send to: [email protected]如有任何查詢或意見,對這篇文章請發送

到：[email protected]

JUNE 2010

GamingRenaissance

12 Economy12 Economy12 Economy

AsiA’sGAminGRenaissance

A new appetite for leisure and luxury fueled by Asia’s rising wealth continues to lure world-famous casino brands to the region

亞洲財富新貴的娛樂及奢侈消費需求旺盛，吸引全球著名賭場品牌注資亞洲

作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

亞洲博彩業復興



Economy 13Economy 13

Wynn 的決策看似略過激進，其實是經濟

現實使然。很早之前，澳門已經超過拉斯

維加斯成為全球最大的博彩市場。2006 年，

回歸中國的澳門博彩收入約 70 億美元，超

出拉斯維加斯博彩收入近 5億美元。

Since then, Macau’s phenomenal expansion has continued unabated. A recent study by Morgan Stanley on the global gaming market forecasts that America’s Sin City will reap US$5.7 billion in gambling revenues this year - while Macau will hit almost US$20 billion on the back of 23.3 million visitors.此後，澳門博彩業一直保持快速增長。

近期，摩根士丹利對全球博彩市場的研究

Bellagio 等項目，成為拉斯維加斯的標誌

性賭場，此項決定充分表明其公司未來的

發展方向。除搬遷總部外，Wynn 還宣佈，

公司高管將拿出多數時間在中國境內工作，

負責永利澳門酒店以及萬利酒店的業務發

展，並在澳門金光大道新建另一間娛樂城。

While Wynn’s move may seem like a provocative announcement, it is a simple acknowledgement of economic reality. Macau long ago overtook Las Vegas as the world’s largest gaming market. The Chinese enclave hit nearly US$7 billion in gaming revenues in 2006 with America’s gambling capital earning half a billion less.

When one of Las Vegas’s most well-known casino magnates publicly announces that the future of his business is in Asia, it feels like the end of an era.

當拉斯維加斯最著名的資本大鱷之一宣佈亞洲地區未來業務規劃之時，仿佛預

示著一個時代的終結。

Steve Wynn, the billionaire gambling entrepreneur credited with reviving the Las Vegas Strip in the 1990s, announced at the end of April this year in a conference call with investors that he would be moving his company’s headquarters to its new Macau resort development as soon as 2014.Steve Wynn 是身家億萬的博彩企業家，

上世紀 90 年代對拉斯維加斯大道的復興貢

獻卓著，今年 4月底，在與投資人召開電

話會議時，他宣佈於 2014 年前將公司總部

遷往澳門的全新娛樂城。

Considering how closely Wynn is linked with modern Las Vegas - developing Strip icons such as The Mirage and The Bellagio - it was a powerful declaration of where he believes the future of his company is. Besides eventually moving headquarters, Wynn declared his executives would be spending much more of their time in the Chinese territory to oversee the expansion of Wynn Macau to include his other resort brand, Encore, and the construction of another casino resort in Macau’s Cotai Strip.Wynn 與現代拉斯維加斯的發展密不

可分，他成功開發 The Mirage 及 The

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Steve Wynn

The Mirage

The Bellagio

Economy14

報告顯示，「罪惡之城」拉斯維加斯今年博

彩業收入將達 57 億美元，重迎 2330 萬遊

客的澳門將實現 200 億美元收入。

Growth in Macau continues unabated, with the opening of Galaxy Macau and Sites 5&6 of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) estimated to be completed in the first half of 2011. Over the long term, plans by LVS to turn Macau’s Cotai district into the local version of the Las Vegas Strip means further developments adding to the existing Venetian Macau, Four Seasons Macau, City of Dreams and Galaxy World Resort.隨著銀河度假城及拉斯維加斯金沙集團

第 5,6 期發展項目於 2011 年上半年完工，

澳門博彩業將繼續保持增長。就長期來看，

金沙集團計劃將金光大道打造成澳門版的

拉斯維加斯大道，這意味著除現有的威尼

斯人酒店 ,四季酒店 ,新濠天地及銀河世

界度假村外，還將新增其他發展項目。

Even straight-laced Singapore, light years away from the gaudy signs and seedy reputations of Las Vegas and Macau, is getting in on the act. The Lion City’s government announced their controversial decision to build the euphemistically named “Integrated Resorts” over five years ago, with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong declaring that Singapore needed an “X-Factor” and “buzz” to become a truly global city.

甚至曾對拉斯維加斯及澳門嗤之以鼻的

新加坡亦一改刻板形象，開始涉足博彩業。

五年前，獅城政府宣佈頗具爭議的決定，

打造「綜合娛樂城」項目，總理李顯龍表示，

新加坡要想成為真正的全球化城市，必須

具備「X 因素」及「轟動效應」。

The result is the US$5.5 billion Marina Bay Sands, the world’s second most expensive casino, proudly adding its three futuristic towers to the Singapore

skyline. Marina Bay Sands’ May opening was preceded by Resorts World Sentosa, which opened in February as Singapore’s first casino coupled with Southeast Asia’s first Universal Studios theme park. 不久，憑藉充滿未來派風格的三座塔樓，

海灣金沙酒店在新加坡拔地而起，在全球

最昂貴娛樂場排行榜中名列第二。海灣金

沙酒店 5月開業之前，聖淘沙名勝世界已

於 2月開業，成為新加坡首間娛樂城，亦

是東南亞地區首個環球影城主題公園。

Resorts World Sentosa cost almost US$5 billion to construct and will feature 60 restaurants and the world’s largest oceanearium. The Marina Bay Sands on the other hand will have 2,600 hotel rooms, convention facilities capable of hosting 45,000 delegates, and an iconic cantilevered floating garden perched on top of three hotel towers.聖淘沙名勝世界造價近 50 億美元，擁有

60 間餐廳及全球最大的海洋館。海灣金沙

酒店擁有 2,600 間客房，可承辦 45,000 人

參與的大型會議，三座塔樓頂層還有標誌

性的懸浮空中花園。

Macau’s ascent as the world’s top gaming destination, coupled with Singapore’s multi-billion dollar new developments, herald exciting times for the gaming industry in Asia. The foundations for this renaissance were sown by government initiatives combined with a favourable geography that establishes both these cities as


The highrise casinos, Wynn and Galaxy, in Macau

Growth in Macau continues unabated, with the opening of Galaxy Macau and Sites 5&6 of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) estimated to be completed in the first half of 2011

| ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


OCTOBER 2010

the gaming hubs for their respective regions.澳門成為全球首選博彩目的地，加之新

加坡斥資數十億美元發展博彩業，充分表

明亞洲的博彩行業已進入蓬勃發展時期。

政府支援加之理想的地理位置為博彩業的

復興奠定堅實基礎，這兩座城市已成為各

自所在地區的博彩樞紐。

From a reputation for smoke-filled slot parlors and triad turf wars, the liberalization of Macau’s gaming industry in 2004 brought in Las Vegas-style attractions including Cirque du Soleil performances, Venetian gondolas and high-end shopping outlets. More importantly, these new developments catered to an increasingly wealthy and affluent Chinese market, responsible for 51% of Macau’s visitors in 2009.簡陋的老虎機廳及黑幫廝殺的時代已經

一去不返，自 2004 年澳門博彩行業實現自

由化以來，拉斯維加斯式的博彩經營進入

澳門，帶來太陽劇團的表演 ,威尼斯岡多

拉船以及高檔零售店。更為重要的是，全

新發展項目充分迎合中國大陸財富新貴群

體的需求，2009 年，大陸遊客佔澳門全部

遊客的 51％。

With gambling banned in the People’s Republic, Macau’s geographic position adjacent to the heavily populated and relatively wealthy Pearl River Delta region of China has made the territory the leisure and tourism hub of the Greater China market. Macau’s position continues to be strengthened by infrastructure investments to Mainland

China. These include expanded border crossings and ferry terminals, building high-speed railways, and a new bridge cutting travel time between Macau and Hong Kong from 4 hours to 40 minutes.由於中國大陸禁賭，澳門又毗鄰高人口

密度且經濟相對發達的珠三角地區，使澳

門成為大中華市場的休閒及旅遊樞紐。中

國大陸不斷加大基礎設施投資，亦鞏固澳

門的市場定位。大陸不斷擴建通關設施及

船運碼頭，建設高速鐵路，並興修跨海大橋，

將港澳之間的車程由4小時縮短至40分鐘。

A similar story is playing out with Singapore. Low gaming penetration in Southeast Asia and India, with more than 40,000 people per gaming position compared to over 300 for the United States, coupled with an aggregate regional GDP of US$2.7 trillion, means that the city-state is perfectly positioned to capture a huge slice of gaming revenues from neighboring countries. 新加坡的發展情況十分類似。東南亞及印

度地區博彩業覆蓋率較低，平均 40,000 多

人擁有一處博彩設施，而美國為 300多人擁

有一處博彩設施，加之合計地區 GDP 達到

2.7萬億美元，意味著新加坡佔據有利市場

定位，充分把握獲得巨額博彩收入的良機。

Singapore’s government initiated the Integrated Resorts to complement the country’s position as a regional business and travel hub, staging ground for events, and its reputation as a shopping destination. With millions of visitors every year, Singapore’s casinos will help squeeze more out of tourists visiting

to watch the Formula 1 grand prix or passing by for a business meeting with the island’s array of banks and hedge funds.新加坡政府啟動綜合娛樂城計劃，鞏固

其市場定位，將新加坡打造成為地區商業

及旅遊樞紐，承辦各類展會，並努力成為

購物勝地。新加坡每年迎來數百萬遊客，

其中包括眾多 F1 錦標賽觀眾，加之新加

坡擁有眾多銀行及對沖基金，還有大量商

務人士赴新加坡參與商業會議，娛樂城有

助於刺激更多消費。

With such a complementary strategy, the new Integrated Resorts are predicted to generate significant revenues for the city-state. Morgan Stanley estimates that the island’s gaming revenues will top US$5 billion by 2012, supported by a “high propensity” towards gambling in the region.憑藉輔助策略，預計綜合娛樂城將為新

加坡帶巨額收入。摩根士丹利預計，到

2012 年，新加坡的博彩業收入將達到 50

億美元，亞洲地區博彩業繁榮發展的前景

為該預測奠定堅實基礎。

Both Macau and Singapore’s gaming industries depend on the continuing economic growth of their catchment areas. With double digit growth rates forecasted for the giant markets of India and China for the next few years, and high growth rates for the rest of the countries in Southeast Asia, many casino operators continue to be bullish on Asia’s prospects.澳門及新加坡博彩業的發展對周邊鄰國

經濟的持續增長依賴度較高。未來數年內，

預計印度及中國的巨大市場將保持兩位數

增長，東南亞其他國家亦會保持較高增長

Sheldon Adelson


Economy16

OCTOBER 2010

casinos. Christened the Ho Tram Strip, it will cover 168 kilometers of beachside property along the South China Sea.該投資集團獲越南政府頒發的 50年投資

許可，並宣佈長期發展計劃，開發投資高達

42億的項目，包括 5間度假酒店及 2間娛

樂城。該海濱度假村項目竣工後，將沿南中

國海建成 168公里長的海濱物業。

Over in the Philippines, gambling is already allowed and administered by the Philippine Amusements and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR). Its plans to build an “Entertainment Complex” modeled on Las Vegas facing Manila Bay has attracted three investor groups - SM Group of the Philippines, Genting Group of Malaysia and Aruze Corp. of Japan.在菲律賓，政府已放開博彩業，由菲律賓

娛樂及博彩公司（PAGCOR）負責管理。菲律

賓計劃仿效拉斯維加斯模式，打造面朝馬尼

拉灣的「娛樂綜合區」，已吸引三個投資集團，

分別為菲律賓的 SM Group, 馬來西亞的

Genting Group 以及日本的 Aruze Corp。

The Genting Group has already invested in the Philippines through its Resorts World brand in a casino complex just across from Manila’s new international airport terminal. Thunderbird Resorts, a casino resorts operator with properties in Latin America, also has 2 casino developments that serves suburban markets outside of the Philippine capital and is considering more expansions in that country.Genting Group 已經透過 Resorts World

品牌在菲律賓投資，該娛樂城綜合項目與馬

尼拉新國際機場僅一街之隔。Thunderbird

Resorts 是拉美地區娛樂場酒店營運機構，

亦在菲律賓參與兩個娛樂城項目，主要滿足

菲律賓首都以外郊區市場的需求，該公司正

考慮在菲律賓過大業務規模。

With so many investors entering Asia’s gaming market, the region is well on its way to developing high-class gaming destinations of different brands, shapes and sizes in several countries. Who needs to go to Las Vegas?隨著如此多投資人進入亞洲博彩市場，該

地區正快速發展成為高水準博彩目的地，覆

蓋多個國家，擁有不同的品牌 ,形象及規模。

誰還要去拉斯維加斯呢？ |AT|



率，眾多娛樂城經營者繼續對亞洲的市場

前景保持樂觀。

Sheldon Adelson, president of Las Vegas Sands, believes that his company’s significant investment in its Singapore development will be recouped in five years and will surpass its counterparts in the United States in generating revenues for LVS. He also adds that Asia could continue to add up to five more Las Vegases to serve the gaming needs of Asians.拉斯維加斯金沙集團總裁 Sheldon

Adelson 認為，公司在新加坡的巨額投資可

在五年內收回，盈利能力將超出美國本土的

娛樂城。他還補充道，新增五個拉斯維加斯

的規模才能滿足亞洲市場的博彩需求。

Attempts are already being made to set up more casinos outside the two existing Asian gaming hubs to build new markets and create new destinations for a region hungry for new leisure experiences.為滿足亞洲市場對全新娛樂體驗的渴求，

除亞洲現有的兩個博彩樞紐外，全新市場及

目的地的建設正在進行中。

In Vietnam, a group backed by the hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners has received approval to construct the country’s first Las Vegas-style casino resort in a coastal area south of Ho Chi Minh City. The investment group has hired MGM Mirage to operate its planned US$400 million, 1,100-room resort and hired the former president

of MGM Mirage’s global gaming development as its chief executive officer.在越南，得到對沖基金 Harbinger

Capital Partners 支援的投資集團已獲政

府許可，在胡志明市南部海濱地區建造越南

首間拉斯維加斯式的娛樂城酒店。該投資集

團聘請美高梅集團管理這間造價 4億擁有

1,100 間客房的酒店，並聘請美高梅集團全

球博彩發展業務前總裁擔任行政總裁。

The investment group holds a 50-year investment license from the Vietnamese government and announced a long-term plan for a US$4.2 billion project that will encompass five resorts and two

Attempts are already being made to set up more casinos outside the two existing Asian gaming hubs to build new markets and create new destinations for a region hungry for new leisure experiences


17 Economy17 EconomyEconomy17

“Is there anyone so wIse as to learn by the experience of others?” Voltaire (French).

「有幾人知道汲取他人的教訓？」伏爾泰

（法國）

The continuing Asian economic boom all looks good in the media, and Asia is generally presented with its red carpet laid out well into the future. Meanwhile Europe falters under the collapse of Greece, and the USA tries to trick the world with spin about its boundless strength and world leadership qualities. Its all jargon in the end.亞洲經濟持續向前，報紙上一派歌舞昇

平，亞洲出盡風頭，奔向了未來的康莊大道。

然歐洲卻因希臘危機身陷困局，美國憑著

超強實力和主宰世界的野心，想把世界玩

弄於鼓掌之中，而這一切只是癡心妄想。

The Western world may be suffering economically, but by and large they are a conscientious lot and play a big store by social welfare foundations in supporting

作者/by Bruce Curran

The Poverty of Wealth 財富的貧缺

big changes that are pitiful to behold. Household waste levels have soared and the city is struggling to contain the pollution that it creates in the housing areas next to waste sites. The millions of new private cars on the pristine roads of the capital are snarled into traffic that runs for miles from one end to the other. And this is only the beginning. Give the city 5 more years and the traffic will be intolerable. The Chinese think, like the old west, that a private car is the outward expression of success. In Hong Kong , where there are more Rolls Royces per square mile than in any other place on earth , many people live in sky-rise tiny matchboxes with their whole families on top of each other, but drive around in Mercedes Benz motorcars. 北京的突飛猛進有目共睹，但隨之而來的

巨大改變讓人難以接受。生活垃圾成倍增長，

城市不堪重負，住宅區與垃圾場僅一牆之隔。

數百萬新私家車湧向老舊的道路，進一步加

劇了交通堵塞，車流綿延數裏望不到盡頭。

而這僅僅才是開始。再過五年，首都的交通

their populations. Austerity measures when applied by governments are traditionally unpopular, and the violence and activities in Greece are evidence for all to see.西方各國雖然飽嘗經濟衰退之苦，但還

算良心未泯，其社會福利制度保障了民眾

的基本生活。政府要過緊日子向來都不得

民心，希臘的暴亂遊行就是最好例證。

Asian Wealth亞洲之富

China, India and Russia are particularly seen to be flying, and all of Asia seems to be hanging on to their shirt sleeves and turning in the growth. In China the success of capitalist wealth, carefully engineered by communism, is heralded as the perfect formula. 中國 ,印度和俄國一往無前，亞洲其他

國家也搭上了順風車，經濟發展有聲有色。

中國在共產主義大旗下的資本主義財富積

累被標榜為一種完美體制。

Beijing may be booming no doubt, but rapid growth has brought with it



OCTOBER 2010

如若將福特 Expedition 拆去內飾，可不

就一個四口之家的安樂窩嘛。這絕非笑談，

也不是針對福特，而是千萬亞洲城市貧民

居住條件的真實寫照。

The largest car market in the world is China, and the Ford Motor Company is determined to set up 100 new outlets in the country over the next 12 months. What about pollution, what about carbon footprints, what about saving the planet? Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Tata and many other Asian car companies are on the band wagon.中國是全球最大的汽車市場，福特計劃

於未來 12 個月內在華增設 100 個經銷店。

可是污染誰來管？碳印記誰來管？拯救地

球誰來管？豐田 ,現代 ,本田 ,塔塔等一

眾亞洲汽車企業也都爭先恐後，照樣學樣。

The better educated are indeed getting richer, and getting there quicker than those before them. That old chestnut will just not go way, and that old cliché rears its ugly head - “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.” How many thousands of US$ millionaires are there now in China?受教育程度高者的確趕上了好時候，其

財富增長速度可謂是長江後浪推前浪。還

是那句老話：富人越來越有富，窮人越來

越窮。這是顛撲不破的道理。那麼中國現

在到底有多少資產逾百萬美元的富翁呢？

When one travels to the gleaming new airports all over Asia, and stay in classy hotels in booming cities it seems like there is no end to the development and the wealth.

將更加惡化。就像以前的西方人一樣，中國

人也將私家車當成是成功的象徵。全球單位

平方英里上勞斯萊斯數量最多的城市就是香

港，然而進門是全家老少簇擁在水泥大廈一

個小小火柴盒裏的局促，出門卻是賓士代步

的派頭，這在香港並不罕見。

It is all to do with ‘face’ in the end. ‘Face’ being that intangible element whereby you give an impression of something high and mighty, avoiding the reality which is too mean and lean to reveal to others. In Asia ‘face’ is paramount, and all these essentially western inventions like the TV, the telephone, and the motorcar have a side to them that is a nonsense.歸結起來就是「面子」二字。「面子」是

一種虛榮，是用風光無限的表像來掩飾背

地裏的辛酸難堪。「面子」對亞洲人來說比

什麼都重要，跟「面子」相比，諸如電視機 ,

電話機,汽車之類的洋玩意，根本不算什麼。

Take the size of a Ford Expedition, with its massive levels of fuel consumption relative to a practical small car, and you have a gas burner par excellence to deplete our global resources. Well not really, but you know the meaning. 福特 Expedition 的確寬敞舒適，但油耗

要遠遠高於經濟型轎車，這樣一隻油老虎

胃口大得能把將地球資源吃光吃盡。雖然

有些言過其實，但也不無道理。

There again, take a Ford Expedition, strip it out and you have a perfect shell for a family of 4 to live in. This is no joke, and not directed against Ford, but just defines the kind of space sizes that a lot of the urban poor live in in Asia.

徜徉於亞洲各個金碧輝煌的機場大廳，

出入於繁華都市的星級酒店，我們看到的

是一片欣欣向榮 ,眾安道泰。

However, go to the edges of these cities, go to the country side, go to the farm lands, the non-developed areas and you see a different picture, which is often not a pretty one.然而走出城區，踏進農村，下到田埂地頭，

深入落後地區，則完全是另一番景象。

Asian Poverty亞洲之貧

The individual, by and large, is driven by personal gain and greed. Profit and growth are heralded as the benefits of this state of affairs. All over Asia there are pockets of this, basking in the sunlight of a perceived success. In the shadows lurks

Beijing

Economy19

6 month show is “Better Life, Better Living”, aimed at improving the lives of the world population who are running in ever increasing numbers to live in the urban pomp and swamps of the city. Ironically, it will fuel the fire of urban poverty. The question is, do the rising middle classes have the wherewithal to feed the revolution needed with the increasing social vulnerability of the masses? In other words, will profit mongering and economic growth set greed aside and feed the masses.全世界最盛大的演出——世界博覽會，

此刻正在上海舉行。作為中國的經濟中心，

這座城市流金淌銀，滿眼皆是經濟發展的

累累碩果。為期六個月的世界博覽會，以

「城市讓生活更美好」為主題，要讓越來越

多沉浸在城市的繁華與滄桑的人們，過上

越來越美好的生活。然而諷刺的是，城市

的貧困也許將因此惡化。想想看，正在興

起的中產階級，他們果然有資本來促成一

場被越來越多的弱勢群體翹首以待的革命

嗎？再想想看，面對經濟的增長和利益的

誘惑，人們果然能放棄貪欲，而把實惠留

給普羅大眾嗎？

In the end the matter will only be addressed by responsible social government.歸根結底，這些問題必須要有負責任的

政府才能解決。

“East meets West”「當東方遇見西方」

The USA, despite its massive wealth, and its impoverished claim to use, annually, 40% of the world’s resources, still has appalling poverty within its own borders. Can Asia learn from this failure,

another beast, the friend of poverty, the family who have no access to the ‘boom’. A strange magnetic effect takes place at the edge of every city. The country folk think the city has all the answers, and on every street corner is a job and a way to earn money. This perception is wide spread and contributes to the situation, which often turns to misery.人都是逐利的，因此才想去賺錢，才想

不斷地賺錢。在亞洲，成功的陽光普照大

地，到處繁花似錦。然而在陰暗角落，卻

蟄伏著貧困的幽靈，他們與「繁榮」毫不

相干。城市的邊緣地帶，有一種奇怪的現象，

鄉下人都嚮往城市，以為城裏遍地是黃金。

這種想法深入人心，可是美夢成真者鳳毛

麟角，大多數人都只落得個淒慘下場。

Shanghaied in Shanghai上海之殤

The greatest show on earth, the World Expo is currently open in Shanghai. Clearly this city is China’s flagship centre, which smells of money and reeks of economic success. The theme for the

and fight the good fight for the good of the people. 美國雖號稱富國，每年消耗的資源佔到

全球 40%，但國內仍然有大批窮人。亞洲

能否從中汲取教訓，為民眾掀起變革。

George Orwell noted, in his most famous book, Animal Farm, that “we are all equal, but some are more equal than others”. Herein lies the quandary, can social vulnerability be soothed by social responsibility, or will greed (fuelled by corruption) continue to take centre stage.喬治 •奧威爾在其著作《動物莊園》中

寫到：「我們都是平等的，但是有些人比其

他人更加平等」。這就有一個問題，社會責

任能否解決社會問題，或者說貪念（在腐

敗的縱容下）是否會繼續肆意橫行。

The Asian Candy亞洲糖果

Asia is still in its economic infancy and boisterously flashing its new found wealth like a kid in a candy store. Once the excitement has died down, will they be able to chew on their cud and milk the needs of the greater population who are not party to the mainstream changes. This population live their lives off stage blinkered in an ancient routine where “every man takes the limits of his field of vision for the limits of the world”. (Arthur Schopenauer). Only those who can break this mould will see the light of the new economic dawn. It may look like a simple formula but can Asia make the grade and not be dragged down by the excessive


Shanghai

The USA, despite its massive wealth, and its impoverished claim to use, annually, 40% of the world’s resources, still has appalling poverty within its own borders

George Orwell



OCTOBER 2010

obsession, nurtured in the West, with materialism.亞洲仍然處於經濟發展的起步階段，就

像糖果店裏的孩童舉著新寶貝四處炫耀。

一旦熱情褪去，他們是否會靜心反思，照

顧沒有從大變革中受惠的普羅大眾。這些

人日復一日過著同樣的生活，沒有絢麗光

芒，「人人都把自己視野領域的極限當作世

界的極限」（阿瑟 •叔本華）。唯有敢於打

破這一桎梏的人才能看見新經濟的黎明曙

光。這看似簡單，但亞洲能否成功擺脫西

方土地滋生的迷妄與拜金，我們還將拭目

以待。

Asian Population Rotation亞洲人口膨脹

There are other ingredients which will infect the new found wealth. Remarkably, many moons ago China saw the perceived dangers of a rapidly increasing population and closed the doors to couples having more than one child. In many other parts of Asia the pendulum is at the other end of the spectrum, and large families are the norm. Population growth, whether governments like it or not, is a major issue. Not least is the ability to feed the people. 新興財富還將受到其他因素的影響。十

分難得的是，多年前中國就已預見到人口

快速增長的惡果，規定一對夫妻只准生一

個。而在亞洲其他國家，情況卻完全不同，

多子多孫才是福。無論政府認同與否，人

口增長都是個大問題，首當其衝的就是如

何養活這麼多張嘴。

The Philippines is a prime example. Decades ago the Philippines could feed itself off its own rice crop. 30 years ago it had the identical population size to the UK – 60 million people. Today, the UK population is pretty well still 60 million, while the Philippines has increased some

48% to an estimated 89,000,000. The import of rice is up to 20% of its own production now, and with Climate change and all, there is an increasing strain on the social fabric to survive and provide for the people. The International Rice Institute at Los Banos, close to Manila, has created ways of massively increasing rice yields, but this is not enough, and these yield increases are now slowing down. All in all the poor are indeed getting poorer. Then again, when it comes to population control, religion does not see itself fit to lend a helping hand, and will not kowtow to simple logic, preferring to be fed by a spiritual rationality fuelled by mindful wizardry.菲律賓就是個典型例子。三十年前，菲

律賓人口數量約有 6000 萬人，與英國相當，

僅靠國內糧食產量便可自給自足。如今英

國人口還保持在 6000 萬左右，而菲律賓卻

猛然增至 89,000,000，漲幅達 48%。進口

糧食佔到國內產量的 20%，加上氣候變化

等因素，社會壓力越來越大，維持民眾生

計越來越力不從心。位於洛斯巴諾斯（靠

近馬尼拉）的國際水稻研究所曾經發明了

多種大規模提高水稻產量的方法，但這只

是杯水車薪，而且這些水稻目前的產量均

有下滑。總之，窮人真的越來越窮了。可

是話又說回來，宗教對人口控制並不贊同，

不會向這個簡單的道理俯首稱臣，他們講

究的是精神信仰，尤其還有處心積慮的迷

信在一旁煽風點火。

Worldwide there are an estimated 159 births every minute, which translates into 83,570,400 each and every year!

Food and energy issues are burgeoning in conjunction with the trappings of wealth - materialism. As of 9th May 2010, the human population of the world is estimated by the United States Census Bureau to be 6,819,800,000 (6.8 billion). Leading food experts indicate that the earth could support perhaps 16 billion people, but throw in the current trends towards rampant materialism, and surely the world will spin off its axis and resign.世界上每分鐘就有 159 個嬰兒誕生，每

年就有 83,570,400 ！再加上人們拜金炫

富，糧食能源危機日漸突出。美國人口普

查局估計，截至 2010 年 5 月 9 日全球人口

為 6,819,800,000（68 億）。某些糧食專家

表示地球完全可以養活 160 億人，但考慮

到當下的物質享樂之風，地球一定會被我

們壓垮脊樑。

Other grand Statistics boast of annual economic growth, skyscrapers galore, neon signs flashing and all those trappings that portray a canvas of Asian success… but it all leads to the Poverty of Wealth in the End.統計數據大肆吹噓經濟每年增長多少，

高樓崛起多快，霓虹燈多麼閃耀，一切的

一切都描繪出了一副亞洲繁榮圖—但也將

最終導致財富的貧缺。|AT|



OCTOBER 2010

25 Economy


SINGAPORE IS POISEd tO bEcOmE one of the world’s leading financial centres, as London and New York lose status and see business ebb away as a result of the global financial crisis, according to one of the world’s leading investors.

一位投資大師告訴我，隨著倫敦和紐約在

環球金融危機中走向沒落，新加坡註定要

成為國際上首屈一指的金融中心。

Jim Rogers, chairman and chief executive of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, and author of best-selling investment books A Bull in China, Hot Commodities and Investment Biker, made the claim in an interview with Asian Tigers. He said the centre of financial power is shifting inexorably eastwards.

這番話出自吉姆•羅傑斯之口，他是在

接受亞洲虎雜誌專訪時提出這個觀點。羅

傑斯是新加坡Rogers Holdings總裁兼首席

執行官，曾寫過《A Bull in China》，《Hot

Commodities》和《Investment Biker》等暢

銷書籍。他說金融力量的中心正勢不可擋

地移向東方。

Rogers said: “The game is up for the City of London. London has been particularly error-prone in the derivatives market. I cannot see it making a quick recovery.” He said New York will decline but at a slower pace. More recently, the $50bn fraud at New York-based Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities has highlighted serious regulatory failures in the US.

羅傑斯表示：「倫敦已是昨日黃花，它

在衍生產品市場上犯了大錯，我看恐怕一

時難復元氣。」他說紐約也將走下坡路，

只不過沒有那麼快。最近曝光的紐約伯納

德•L•麥道夫投資證券公司500億美元詐騙

案，凸顯出美國監管體系的嚴重漏洞。

Rogers said the current financial crisis is a tipping point, as western centres lose out to “less corrupted, less corroded” economies and financial centres in the east. 羅傑斯說當前這場金融危機是個轉折點，

東西方的經濟體和金融中心兩相比較，

「不那麼腐化墮落」的東方壓倒了西方。

Rogers said Asia’s position has been further strengthened because the

continent is home to the world’s six leading creditor nations: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Saudi Arabia. “The money is in Asia now. They’ve been saving,” he said. “The Americans save less than 2% of their earnings in America. In China they save over 35% and throughout Asia they save and invest massive sums of money.”

羅傑斯說亞洲的地位得到進一步增強，

因為這塊大陸上有世界六大債權國：中

國，日本，韓國，台灣，新加坡和沙特阿

拉伯。「現在的錢都在亞洲，它們被積攢起

來，」他說：「美國人只把收入的不到2%儲

蓄起來，中國人卻能存下35%，整個亞洲

的儲蓄和投資都十分可觀。」

國際金融中心的有力競爭者

A Powerful Competitor for World’s Leading Financial Centre

Singapore 新加坡

作者/by Ian Fraser

Jim Rogers


Economy 26

Rogers, a respected commodities investor who founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in 1970, moved with his wife and two daughters from New York to Singapore in December 2007 as a result of his enthusiasm for the investment opportunities in China.

羅傑斯是舉世公認的商品投資大

師，1970年與佐治•索羅斯共創「量子基

金」。2007年，他攜妻子及兩個女兒由紐

約移居新加坡，因為他被中國的投資機遇

深深吸引。

He said Singapore and Hong Kong are the two strongest candidates to become Asia’s dominant financial centre. However he believes Singapore has the edge. He said Hong Kong is handicapped because its giant neighbour China has a blocked currency. He also believes Singapore benefits enormously from superior regulation. Because the country’s top civil servants and regulators are paid salaries of over $1m a year, Rogers said they are “incorruptible”.

他說亞洲的金融中心首推新加坡和香

港，而他覺得新加坡更有優勢。在他看

來，妨礙香港的是它龐大的近鄰中國實行

貨幣管制。他認為新加坡卓越的監管體系

使之獲益匪淺。因為國家高層公務員和監

管人員每年都能領到100多萬美元的薪水，

羅傑斯說他們「難以被收買」。

The Monetary Authority of Singapore, founded in 1971, serves as both regulator and central bank in Singapore, and overhauled its approach to banking supervision following the Barings collapse of 1995-95. Subsequent initiatives including opening the banking system to foreign ownership, a phase of banking consolidation and merging and restructuring its securities and futures exchanges.

1971年成立的新加坡金融管理局，身兼

監管機關和中央銀行兩個角色。1995年巴

林銀行的轟然倒塌，促使金管局徹底修改

了銀行監管策略，後來的舉措包括向外資

開放銀行系統，階段性銀行業整合，以及

合併重組證券及期貨交易所。

Rogers added that even though Seoul has aspirations to become a leading Asian financial centre, it is hampered by what he describes as Byzantine regulations and the lack of free flows of capital in and out of Korea. Even though Tokyo has the capacity to be the leading Asian financial centre, Rogers said it has limited chance of achieving this, due to

Singapore

New York

London


Economy27

Japan’s “reluctance to fully open up to the outside world” and very low interest rate policies.

羅傑斯指，雖然首爾亦有打造亞洲金融

中心的壯志，無奈卻受阻於「拜佔庭式錯

綜複雜」（羅傑斯語）的監管制度，以及

韓國對資本自由出入的限制。他又說，東

京有成為亞洲金融中心的實力，可是希望

不大，因為日本「遲遲不願完全向外面的

世界開放」，並且實行超低利率的政策。

He does not believe challengers in the Gulf, such as Dubai Financial Center, currently pose a significant threat, partly due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

他認為海灣地區的挑戰者，比如杜拜金

融中心，現在還不足為懼，一個原因是中

東的地緣政治不穩定。

Rogers’ made the predictions as a report produced for the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, confirmed that London risks losing its crown as the world’s leading financial centre. “London faces a real and serious threat from competitor cities that have developed aggressive strategies to steal business away,” said the report, prepared by a group of London-based financial bosses led by Bob Wigley, chairman of Merrill Lynch in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

羅傑斯作這些預測之際，一份報告被呈到

倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜的案頭。報告稱倫

敦有失去世界金融中心桂冠的危險。這份報

告的作者皆是倫敦金融界的顯赫人物，為首

者是鮑勃•威格利——美林公司歐洲，中東

和非洲業務總裁。報告中提到：「倫敦面臨

著競爭城市真切而嚴重的威脅，這些城市制

定了雄心勃勃的策略要一爭高下。」

The report, commissioned by the Greater London Authority confirmed

that Singapore is a favourite to steal London’s crown.

這份由大倫敦市政府委託編撰的報告指

出，新加坡是與倫敦爭奪寶座的有力對手。

It said: “Singapore’s concerted strategy to turn its local financial centre into a regionally significant player has seen it attracting over 1,000 domestic and international financial institutions to become a regional leader and beacon for financial trading.” The report added that Singapore’s strongest sector is foreign exchange where it has a 6% share of global turnover compared to 34% in the UK and 17% in the US.

報告稱：「新加坡的一致策略是從地方性

的金融中心成為具有重要區域影響力的競

爭者，其已吸引逾千家國內外金融機構，

有望成為本地區金融貿易的領導者和燈

塔。」報告並指，新加坡實力最強的部門是

外匯交易，約佔世界總量的6%，而英國和

美國則分別為34%和17%。

Rogers said that the responses of the governments of George W Bush and Gordon Brown to the banking crisis had been deeply flawed. By making generous bail-outs to failed institutions, he said they have condemned their economies to 10 to 15 years of stagnation. He argues that more of the troubled western banks should have been allowed to go bust. “What has happened is horrible economics and horrible morality,” said Rogers.

羅傑斯說布殊政府和白高敦政府對銀行

業危機的應對之策頗受詬病。因為對泥足

深陷的金融機構慷慨解囊，兩國經濟將會

陷入長達10-15年的停滯。他認為應該讓更

多陷入危機的西方銀行破產倒閉。「留下

的只是千瘡百孔的經濟，還有可怕的道德

敗壞，」羅傑斯說道。

Rogers also reiterated his view that China will be the next superpower. “The 21st century is the century of China,” he said. “However, there will be setbacks along the way.”

羅傑斯重申他認為中國將是下一個超級

強國的觀點。「21世紀是中國世紀，」他

說：「不過這條路途註定不會平坦。」|AT|

People’s Square, Shanghai, China

Tokyo, Japan

asian tigers investor report october 2010

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