Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013

World Water Day: Water Cooperation

‘Attaining Sustainable Services from Ecosystems through Trade-off Scenarios (ESPA ASSETS project)’,

by Dr Kate Schreckenberg, University of Southampton

Photo by Erwin Palacios (CI Colombia) © The Economist

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Photo by Erwin Palacios (CI Colombia)

To quantify the linkages between ecosystem services that affect – and are affected by – food security and nutritional health for the rural poor at the forest-agricultural interface

United Kingdom:

University of Southampton (PI Poppy) University of Dundee (Dawson)

United States of America:

Conservation International (Co-PI Honzak)

Spain:

Basque Centre for Climate Change (Co-PI Villa)

Colombia:

International Centre for Tropical Agriculture – CIAT (Co-PI Jarvis) Research centres, universities and NGOs

Malawi:

Chancellor College (Co-PI Chiotha) LEAD Southern and Eastern Africa plus Ministry of

Forestry, Forest Research Institute of Malawi WorldFish Centre - Malawi Rhodes University South Africa

High forest cover Low deforestation

High forest cover High deforestation

Low forest cover Low deforestation

Lower Caquetá, Colombia

Third site, Latin America

Zomba Plateau, Malawi

Natural land use transition Forest replenishment period

National

Long-Term

Regional

Medium-Term

Crises and Tipping Points Theme 2

Environmental Impacts

Food Security

Health Impact

Economic Impacts

Policies relating to e.g. economics, sector-specific,

environmental Theme 3

BowTie: risk management / mitigation

Theme 3

Food Security and Health Themes 1 and 2

Ecosystem Services Themes 1 and 2

Setting of targets / priorities

Drivers / Pressures State Impacts

FeedMe

Socioeconomic surveys and PRA

Response

ARIES Ecosystem service flows to

beneficiaries

Economic modelling

ES modelling

Local

Short-Term

The framework integrates the modelling tools and the DP-SIR approach to evaluate drivers, pressures and impact on ES over multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Theme 1 Drivers, pressures and linkages between food security, nutritional health and ecosystem services

Photo by Malcolm Hudson (U. of Southampton)

• Direct and indirect contributions of ecosystem services

• Key drivers and pressures

Household surveys and food diaries.

Three or more waves of measurements per site.

Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing.

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Poverty Food Security

Theme 2 Crises and tipping points: Past, present and future interactions between food insecurity and ES at the forest-agricultural interface.

• Coping strategies

• Future scenarios http://blogs.reuters.com

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Photo by Simon Willcock (U. of Southampton)

• 3 key interactions: Water, Forest & People

PEOPLE FOREST

WATER

A rapid spatial assessment tool for ecosystem services and their values; not a single model but an artificial intelligence assisted system that customizes models to user goals.

Demonstrates a mapping process for ecosystem service provision, use, sink and flow while most ES assessments only look at provision.

Probabilistic, Bayesian models inform decision-makers about the likelihood of possible scenarios; users can explore effects of policy changes and external events on estimates of uncertainty.

Theme 3 The science-policy interface: How can we manage ES to reduce food insecurity and increase nutritional health?

Photo by Simon Willcock (U. of Southampton)

•Minimising risk of future environmental change

•Influencing policy to better manage ES conflicts, trade-offs and synergies to sustain food security and health?

Ecosystem – Natural Forest

Good/Service – Firewood

Consequence – Increased

Food Security

Hazard – Not enough Firewood

Threat – Over collection

Consequence –

Decreased Food Security

Control – Rules preventing

over-harvesting

Control – Aid/Charcoal provision

Better resource

management

Food security and nutritional

health

Map different factors affecting ES

Report on climate change impacts on ES provision, food security and nutritional health

Identify critical changes and tipping points that can accelerate the degradation of key ecosystems (that can be addressed through timely policy interventions)

Report on current and future impact of land use change on sustainable provision of ES and food security

Identify the factors with highest negative impact on ES (and which are more relevant for food security and nutritional health)

Provide input for policies that can counterbalance the most urgent needs of the population exerting pressure on ES

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This presentation was produced by ASSETS (NE-J002267-1), funded with support from the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme (ESPA).

The ESPA programme is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the

Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the UK’s Living with Environmental Change Programme (LWEC). The views expressed here are

those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the funders, the ESPA Programme, the ESPA Directorate, or LWEC.

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World Water Day: Water Cooperation Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013