1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Thitinan-Pongsudhirak/Authoritarianism-is-accelerating-in-Southeast-Asia 1/7

Viewpoints > Thitinan Pongsudhirak

January 1, 2018 7:00 am JST

Authoritarianism is accelerating inSoutheast AsiaThe China model is winning, at the expense of liberal values

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1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

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Riot police stand guard at a blocked street outside the supreme court in Phnom Penh on Nov. 16before a ruling ordering the country's main opposition party dissolved. © AP

The year 2018 will mark the start of a period in which outright

authoritarianism and illiberal quasi-democracy are likely to be Southeast

Asia's prevailing norms. With few exceptions, liberal values and fundamental

freedoms and rights will be manipulated and curtailed, even where elections

continue to take place. Where authoritarianism holds sway, rights and

freedoms will be suppressed altogether.

The specter of galloping authoritarianism is crucially underpinned by China's

successful system of centralized control combined with economic dynamism.

Unless domestic forces that stand for rights and freedoms are nurtured,

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1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

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Nigel Gould-Davies: EU putstrade before principles overThai army rule

Chinese support fuelsSoutheast Asia's authoritariantilt

mobilized and galvanized, the struggle for democracy could be lost to a

narrative of history that ends not with democracy and free markets but with

omnipotent central authority and state-led capitalism.

Not long ago, Southeast Asia's forces of

sociopolitical change were trending the

other way as countries from Cambodia and

Myanmar to the Philippines and Thailand

embraced democratization, with its

attendant political liberalization and

openness. Prior to the rise of Thaksin

Shinawatra in the early 2000s, Thailand had a new constitution that

promoted checks and balances, together with greater political stability and

effectiveness.

But former Prime Minister Thaksin undermined the country's 1997

constitution, and his rule was marred by corruption and conflicts of interest.

Thailand has since been stuck in a political tailspin, marked by street

protests and two military coups. It is now being run by an authoritarian

government that has constitutionally embedded the military's role in politics.

Myanmar is no less controversial. Its promising reforms in 2011 culminated

with elections four years later and a power-sharing agreement between

generals and civilians, the latter led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Economic

development immediately surged, albeit from a low base, but fatigue and

disillusion have beset democratization.

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1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

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Due to the shortcomings of the Suu Kyi-led government, combined with

intractable ethnic unrest, Myanmar has become a single-issue country

revolving around the persecution of the Rohingya Muslim minority in

Rakhine state. Myanmar's economy will see a prolonged expansion as more

capital and labor are deployed on fertile land, but its democratic politics will

be messy and unsatisfactory, leaving its erstwhile supporters feeling jilted.

For a time, democratic rule in the Philippines was on course for political

openness consistent with liberal values. But President Rodrigo Duterte, a

provincial politician with few debts to the Manila-based political

establishment, has shaken the country with a vengeful and violent anti-drugs

crusade since winning office in 2016.

Human rights and freedoms have been thrown out of the window. Yet the

civilian strongman with authoritarian instincts remains popular, with no

military coup in sight and no visible risk of "people's power" demonstrations

that could dislodge him. Unlike his predecessors, Duterte also has thrown in

his lot with China, which is not a bad fit for his brand of authoritarianism.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen is also "all-in" on China, at the expense

of relations with the U.S. and the European Union. In recent months, he has

effectively shut down independent media outlets.

In early September he arranged for the arbitrary arrest of Kem Sokha, leader

of the opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party, on treason charges. By

mid-November, the CNRP was dissolved by the Hun Sen-aligned Supreme

Court, accused of a plot to overthrow the government.

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1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

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Viewpoints > Thitinan Pongsudhirak

January 1, 2018 7:00 am JST

Authoritarianism is accelerating inSoutheast AsiaThe China model is winning, at the expense of liberal values

Blatant dictatorship

Hun Sen has opted for blatant dictatorship because voter surveys indicate

that his Cambodian People's Party is on course to lose to the CNRP in

elections due in July 2018.

These democratic considerations are of little interest to China, which

received Hun Sen in Beijing with open arms in November as he sought

support in the face of Western opprobrium. The Cambodian strongman

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1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

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subsequently taunted the U.S. and the EU, challenging them to withdraw

development aid.

In the event, the EU canceled $8 million of funding for Cambodia's election

commission -- a drop compared with the hundreds of millions of dollars of

grant aid provided by China, which by 2016 also had accumulated direct

investment totaling $11.2 billion, equivalent to more than half of Cambodia's

gross domestic product.

Brunei, Laos and Vietnam harbor regimes that do not tolerate demands for

rights and freedoms, and prospects for the rest of Southeast Asia do not bode

well.

Indonesia is still front and center in the struggle for democracy and human

rights. It has passed the point of no return to military rule, but openness and

basic freedoms are being eroded, as in the recent jailing of the Christian-

Chinese former mayor of Jakarta, Basuki Tjahaha Purnama, after a

conviction for blasphemy against Islam. If Indonesia cannot meet the

challenge of maintaining secularism and electoral democracy with economic

growth, it also could face democratic rollback.

Confronting a general election in the first half of 2018, Malaysian Prime

Minister Najib Razak has all but overcome the 1Malaysia Development

Berhad scandal, involving hundreds of millions of dollars alleged by

opponents to have been laundered for personal gain.

Despite an international investigation into 1MDB's dubious dealings, Najib is

likely to return to power with a larger role for Islam in politics, due to a weak

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1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Thitinan-Pongsudhirak/Authoritarianism-is-accelerating-in-Southeast-Asia?page=2 3/7

and fractured opposition, the ruling United Malays National Organization's

patronage machine and an alliance with the Malaysian Islamic Party.

In view of these authoritarian gains and setbacks to democracy and rights

and freedoms, Singapore appears the most stable, responsive and

accountable political system based on a popular mandate in Southeast Asia.

Elsewhere in the region, China is now a trump card for authoritarianism, its

overwhelming influence only weakly challenged by the EU, hampered by

popular anger over high levels of immigration, and the U.S., where President

Donald Trump sees America as a victim of its efforts to support the

international order since World War II. This is a worldview unaffected by the

administration's new National Security Strategy, published on Dec. 18, in

which China and Russia are identified as threats.

A regional pushback against rising authoritarianism could be rolled out in

three directions. First, the electorates in countries such as Cambodia and

Thailand should stand up for their own rights and for accountable

government.

The challenge for them is a decoupling of political progress and economic

performance. Strong economic expansion in the region broadly buys off

potential social discontent. People will have to stand up for democratic rights

and freedoms for their intrinsic worth rather than because of its potential

role in expanding prosperity.

Second, the established democracies must play a part in defending

democratic gains in Southeast Asia. This means that people in Europe and

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1/16/2018 Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Authoritarianism is accelerating in Southeast Asia- Nikkei Asian Review

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Thitinan-Pongsudhirak/Authoritarianism-is-accelerating-in-Southeast-Asia?page=2 4/7

America must address internal grievances and prevent populism from

gaining more ground.

Established democracies also must perform better on bread-and-butter

issues to show that rights and freedoms are compatible with economic

growth and development. Australia, India and Japan are key leaders for

Southeast Asia. These staunch Indo-Pacific democracies should do more to

lead developing Asia.

Finally, China's political dissidents should be supported, and state-nurtured

Chinese companies that leverage their large internal markets to win external

market shares should be scrutinized and not accepted at face value.

Southeast Asia's history may not end with democracy and free markets, but it

should not be allowed to head in the direction of state-led capitalism and

centralized political controls that undermine or abolish basic freedoms and

fair play.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak teaches international

political economy and directs the Institute of

Security and International Studies at

Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

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Financial TimesJan.16 13:48 Xi tells Trump China ready tojoin US to settle nuclear issue on Koreanpeninsula

Jan.16 11:53 China fake data lead to hiddeneconomic rebound

Jan.16 10:54 Scores injured as floorcollapses in Jakarta exchange

Jan.16 10:44 Philippines orders shutdown ofnews site critical of Duterte

Jan.16 09:04 China DataView: Locationdetermines attitudes to online privacy

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

https://burma.irrawaddy.com/article/2018/01/15/149673.html 1/12

¬ဆ§င±°ပ¦°

အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´တ³င± အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±ဝ¦ဒ ¬ခ¦င±°¬ထ§င±လ§¬နသည±

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

https://burma.irrawaddy.com/article/2018/01/15/149673.html 2/12

By Thitinan Pongsudhirak 15 January 2018

၂၀၁၈ ခªÐ´စ±သည± ¬¶ဗ§င±က²¬သ§ အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±¹က©°စ¨ª°သည¯± စနစ±Ð´င¯± လစ±ဘရယ±မဆန±¬သ§ ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©တပ¨ªင±° Шªင±င®¬ရ° ပª®စ®သည± အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´တ³င± လ¼မ±°မ¨ª°လ§မည¯± ¬ခတ±တခª၏ အယ«အဆ န¨ဒ¦န±°တရပ± ¶ဖစ±လ§Ð¨ªင±သည±။

¬ရ³°¬က§က±ပ³မ²§°က¨ª ဆက±လက± က²င±°ပ¬န·ကစαပင± လစ±ဘရယ±တန±ဖ¨ª°မ²§°Ð´င¯± အ¬¶ခခ®လ³တ±လပ±ခ³င¯±Ð´င¯± အခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°မ²§° က¨ª¶ဖတ±¬တ§က±က§ လက±တလª®°¶ခ§° အသª®°¶ပË·ကလ¨မ¯±မည±မ´§ ¾ခင±°ခ²က± မရ´¨သ¬လ§က±ပင± ¶ဖစ±သည±။ အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±စနစ±၏ ထ¨န±°ခ²Ëပ±မÊက¨ª ခ®လ§ရ¬သ§အခ¦ အခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°Ð´င¯±လ³တ±လပ±မÊမ²§° ဖ¨Ð´¨ပ±ခ®·ကရမည± ¶ဖစ±သည±။

ယခªအခ¦ ထ¨ªင±°Ð¨ªင±င®က¨ª Шªင±င®¬ရ°တ³င± စစ±တပ±၏ အခန±°ကÔက¨ª ဖ³Ùစည±°ပª®အ¬¶ခခ® ဥပ¬ဒအရ ထည¯±သ³င±°¬သ§ အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင± အစ¨ª°ရက အªပ±ခ²Ëပ±¬န¶ခင±° ¶ဖစ±သည± / Reuters

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

https://burma.irrawaddy.com/article/2018/01/15/149673.html 3/12

ကဆªန±¬ပ¦က± ¬¶ပ°လ¼§°လ§¬နသည¯± အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±ဝ¦ဒ တ¬စ�က¨ª တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®၏ ¬အ§င±¶မင±¬သ§ ဗဟ¨ªခ²Ëပ±က¨ªင±မÊдင¯± စ©°ပ³§°¬ရ°စ³မ±°အ§° ¬ပ¦င±°စပ±မÊ စနစ±က ¬ထ§က±ခ®အ§°¬ပ°¬နသည±။ တѪတ±ပª®စ® ¶ဖစ±¬ပµ တ¨ª°တက±မÊမ²§° ¬အ§င±ပ³ခ®¬န¸ပ©° လစ±ဘရယ±တန±ဖ¨ª°မ²§° ÑÊ®°န¨မ¯±¬န¬စသည±။

အခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°Ð´င¯± လ³တ±လပ±မÊ အတ³က± ရပ±တည±·က¬သ§ ¶ပည±တ³င±°အင±အ§°စªမ²§°က¨ª ¶ပËစªပ²¨Ë°¬ထ§င±¶ခင±°၊ စªစည±° လʮ٬ဆ§±¶ခင±°Ð´င¯± Шª°·က§°¬အ§င± လªပ±¬ဆ§င±ထ§°¶ခင±° မရ´¨လÀင± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©တ¨ªက±ပ³သည±ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©Ð´င¯± လ³တ±လပ±¬သ§ ¬ဈ°က³က±Ð´င¯± အဆª®°မသတ±ဘ ·သဇ§¹က©°မ§°လ´¬သ§ ဗဟ¨ª အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±Ð´င¯± အစ¨ª°ရက ကမကထ¶ပË အရင±°ရ´င±စနစ±¶ဖင¯± အဆª®°သတ±¬သ§ သမ¨ªင±°ဇ§တ±လမ±° တခª ¶ဖစ±သ³§°Ð¨ªင±သည±။

မ·က§မ© က§လမ²§°က က¬မ�§ဒ©°ယ§°Ð´င¯± ¶မန±မ§မ´ ဖ¨လစ±ပ¨ªင±Ð´င¯± ထ¨ªင±°အထ¨ Шªင±င®မ²§°သည± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©¶ပ˶ပင±¬¶ပ§င±°လ¬ရ°၊ ၎င±°Ð´င¯± ယ´Î±တ³ပ¦လ§¬သ§ Шªင±င®¬ရ° လ³တ±လပ±ခ³င¯±¬ပ°¶ခင±°Ð´င¯± တ®ခ¦°ဖ³င¯±¬ပ°¶ခင±°တ¨ªÚдင¯± အတ« အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´မ´ လ«မʬရ°Ð´င¯± Шªင±င®¬ရ° အ¬¶ပ§င±°အလ အင±အ§°စªမ²§°သည± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ© လမ±°¬·က§င±° တခªတ³င± ရ´¨¬နခ¯·ကသည±။

၂၀၀၀ ¶ပည¯±Ð´စ± အ¬စ§ပ¨ªင±°တ³င± သက±ဆင±ရ´င±န§ဝပ± ·သဇ§¹က©°ထ³§°လ§¶ခင±° မတ¨ªင±မ© ထ¨ªင±°Ð¨ªင±င®တ³င±ပ¨ªမ¨ªက²ယ±¶ပနÚ±¬သ§ Шªင±င®¬ရ° တည±¸င¨မ±မÊдင¯± ထ¨¬ရ§က±မÊတ¨ªÚдင¯± အတ« အ¶ပန±အလ´န± ထ¨န±°¬·က§င±°မÊက¨ªအ§°¬ပ°¬သ§ ဖ³Ùစည±°ပª®အ¬¶ခခ®ဥပ¬ဒသစ±တခª ရ´¨ခ¯သည±။

သ¨ªÚ¬သ§± ဝန±¹က©°ခ²Ëပ±¬ဟ§င±° သက±ဆင±သည± ၁၉၉၇ ဖ³Ùစည±°အªပ±ခ²Ëပ±ပª® အ¬¶ခခ®ဥပ¬ဒက¨ª အင±အ§°ခ²¨နÚသ³§°¬စ¸ပ©° သ«၏ အªပ±ခ²Ëပ±¬ရ°မ´§ အဂတ¨လ¨ªက±စ§°မÊдင¯± က¨ªယ±က²¨Ë°စ©°ပ³§° ပဋ¨ပက�¶ဖစ±မÊမ²§°Ð´င¯± ¶ပည¯±¬နသည±။ ထ¨ªမ´ စတင±¸ပ©° ထ¨ªင±°Ð¨ªင±င®သည± Шªင±င®¬ရ°အရ ထ¨န±°ခ²Ëပ±မရ¬သ§ အ¬¶ခအ¬နдင¯± ရင±ဆ¨ªင±ရ¸ပ©° လမ±°မ¬ပµ ဆÐ�¶ပပ³မ²§°Ð´င¯± စစ±အ§ဏ§ သ¨မ±°မÊ Ð´စ±¹က¨မ± ·ကË®ရသည±။

ယခªအခ¦ ထ¨ªင±°Ð¨ªင±င®က¨ª Шªင±င®¬ရ°တ³င± စစ±တပ±၏ အခန±°ကÔက¨ª ဖ³Ùစည±°ပª®အ¬¶ခခ® ဥပ¬ဒအရထည¯±သ³င±°¬သ§ အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင± အစ¨ª°ရက အªပ±ခ²Ëပ±¬န¶ခင±° ¶ဖစ±သည±။

¶မန±မ§Ð¨ªင±င®သည±လည±° အလ§°တ«စ³§ပင± အ¶ငင±°ပ³§°ဖ³ယ±ရ§ ¶ဖစ±¬နသည±။ ၂၀၁၁ ခªÐ´စ±က¶မန±မ§Ð¨ªင±င®၏ အလ§°အလ§ ¬က§င±°လ´¬သ§ ¶ပ˶ပင±¬¶ပ§င±°လ¬ရ°သည± ¬န§က± ၄ дစ±¬က²§± ·က§¬သ§အခ¦ ¬ရ³°¬က§က±ပ³သည± ဗ¨ªလ±ခ²Ëပ±¹က©°မ²§°Ð´င¯± ¬ဒµ¬အ§င±ဆန±°စª·ကည± ဦ°¬ဆ§င±သည¯±

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

https://burma.irrawaddy.com/article/2018/01/15/149673.html 4/12

အရပ±သ§°မ²§°အ·က§° အ§ဏ§ခ³¬ဝမÊ တခª ¶ဖစ±လ§ခ¯သည±။ န¨မ¯±က²¬သ§ အ¬¶ခအ¬နမ´ Ѫတ±တရက±စ©°ပ³§°¬ရ° တ¨ª°တက±လ§¬သ§±လည±° ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ© ¶ပ˶ပင±¬¶ပ§င±°လ¬ရ°သည± အရ´¨န±ကªန±¸ပ©° စ¨တ±အ§°ထက±သန±မÊ က²ဆင±°¬နသည±။

¬ဒµ¬အ§င±ဆန±°စª·ကည± ဦ°¬ဆ§င±¬သ§ အစ¨ª°ရ၏ အမ´§°အယ³င±°မ²§°Ð´င¯± ¬¶ဖရ´င±°ရန± ခက±ခ¬သ§တ¨ªင±°ရင±°သ§° ¶ပဿန§မ²§°က¨ª ¬ပ¦င±°စပ±လ¨ªက±¬သ§အခ¦ ¶မန±မ§Ð¨ªင±င®သည± ရခ¨ªင±¶ပည±နယ±မ´ Ѩªဟင±ဂ²§မ³တ±စလင± ¶ပဿန§Ð´င¯± ခ²§ခ²§လည±¬န¬သ§ Шªင±င®¶ဖစ±လ§သည±။

¬¶မ·သဇ§ ¬က§င±°လ´¬သ§ ¬¶မတ³င± အရင±°အд©°Ð´င¯± လªပ±အ§°က¨ª ထပ±မ®ထည¯±သ³င±° လ¨ªက±ပ¦က ¶မန±မ§¯စ©°ပ³§°¬ရ° ¬ရရ´ည± ခ²Ùထ³င±မÊက¨ª ¶မင±ရမည± ¶ဖစ±¬သ§±လည±° ၎င±°၏ ဒ©မ¨ªကရက±တစ± Шªင±င®¬ရ°သည±ÑÊပ±¬ထ³°¸ပ©° ¬က²နပ±စရ§ မရ´¨လ´ဘ မ·က§¬သ°မ©အထ¨ အစ¨ª°ရက¨ª ¬ထ§က±ခ®ခ¯သ«မ²§°မ´§ အပစ±အပယ±ခ®လ§ရသည± ဟª ခ®စ§°¬န·ကရသည±။

ဖ¨လစ±ပ¨ªင±Ð¨ªင±င®၏ ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ© အªပ±ခ²Ëပ±¬ရ°မ´§ လစ±ဘရယ± တန±ဖ¨ª°မ²§°Ð´င¯± က¨ªက±ည©¬သ§ Шªင±င®¬ရ°ပ³င¯±လင±°မÊ လမ±°¬·က§င±° ¬ပµတ³င± အခ²¨န±က§လ တခªအထ¨ ရ´¨¬နခ¯သည±။ သ¨ªÚ¬သ§± မန©လ§အ¬¶ခစ¨ªက±Ð¨ªင±င®¬ရ° အသ¨ªင±°အဝန±°တ³င± ¬က²°ဇ«°ခ® ¬က²°ဇ«°စ§° မရ´¨သ« ¬ဒသဆ¨ªင±ရ§ အရပ±သ§° Шªင±င®¬ရ°သမ§°Ñ¨ªဒရ©ဂ¨ª ဒ«တ§¬တ သည± ၂၀၁၆ ခªÐ´စ±တ³င± အ§ဏ§ရ လ§သည±မ´ စတင±¸ပ©° ဒဏ±ခတ±လ¨ª¬သ§ အ·ကမ±°နည±°¶ဖင¯± မ«°ယစ±¬ဆ°ဝ¦° တ¨ªက±ဖ²က±¬ရ°စစ±ပ³ ဆင±Ð¼သ¶ဖင¯± တ¨ªင±°¶ပည±သည± လÊပ±ခ¦သ³§°ခ¯ရသည±။

လ«Úအခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°Ð´င¯± လ³တ±လပ±မÊက¨ª ¶ပÌတင±°¬ပ¦က±မ´ လ¼င¯±ပစ±လ¨ªက±သည±။ သ¨ªÚ¬သ§± ထ¨ª အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±ဗ©ဇရ´¨သည¯± အရပ±သ§° အ§ဏ§ရ´င±က¨ª လ«¹က¨Ëက±မ²§°¬န¬သ°¸ပ©° စစ±အ§ဏ§သ¨မ±°မည¯± အလ§°အလ§ မ¬တ³Ùရသလ¨ª သ«Úက¨ª ¶ဖËတ±ခ²Ð¨ªင±သည¯± ¶ပည±သ«Úအ§ဏ§ ဆÐ�¶ပပ³မ²§°က¨ªလည±° မ¶မင±Ð¨ªင±¬သ°¬ပ။ သ«Úအရင±က¬ခ¦င±°¬ဆ§င±မ²§°Ð´င¯± မတ«ဘ တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®Ð´င¯± ပ«°¬ပ¦င±°ရန± ဆª®°¶ဖတ±လ¨ªက±သည±။ တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®သည±သ«၏ အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±ဝ¦ဒ အမ´တ±တ®ဆ¨ပ±Ð´င¯± မက¨ªက±ည©¬သ§ Шªင±င®¬တ§¯ မဟªတ±¬ပ။

က¬မ�§ဒ©°ယ§° ဝန±¹က©°ခ²Ëပ± ဟ³န±ဆန±သည± တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င® အ¬ပµ အကနÚ±အသတ± မရ´¨ဘ အ¬မရ¨ကန±၊ ဥ¬ရ§ပသမဂ� တ¨ªÚдင¯± ဆက±ဆ®¬ရ°က¨ª စ¬တ°လ¨ªက±သည±။ သ«သည± မ·က§¬သ°မ©လမ²§°ကပင± လ³တ±လပ±¬သ§ သတင±°ဌ§နမ²§°က¨ª ပ¨တ±ပင±လ¨ªက± သည±။

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

https://burma.irrawaddy.com/article/2018/01/15/149673.html 5/12

စက±တင±ဘ§လ အ¬စ§ပ¨ªင±°တ³င± သ«သည± အတ¨ªက±အခ® က¬မ�§ဒ©°ယ§° အမ²¨Ë°သ§° ကယ±ဆယ±¬ရ°ပ¦တ©(CNRP) ¬ခ¦င±°¬ဆ§င± ကမ±ဆ¨ªခ¦ (Kem Sokha) က¨ª Шªင±င®¬တ§± ပªန±ကªန±မʶဖင¯± အ¶ငင±°ပ³§°ဖ³ယ±ရ§ဖမ±°ဆ©°မʶပËလªပ±ရန± စ©စαသည±။ Шªဝင±ဘ§လလယ±သ¨ªÚ ¬ရ§က±¬သ§အခ¦ သ«သည± အစ¨ª°ရက¨ª ¶ဖËတ±ခ²ရန±·က®စည±မÊ အတ³က± ထ¨ª အတ¨ªက±အခ®ပ¦တ©က¨ª ဟ³န±ဆန±၏ မဟ§မ¨တ± တရ§°Ñª®°ခ²Ëပ±က ဖ²က±သ¨မ±°လ¨ªက±သည±။

၂၀၁၈ ခªÐ´စ± ဇ«လ¨ªင±လတ³င± က²င±°ပမည¯± ¬ရ³°¬က§က±ပ³တ³င± သ«၏ CNRP က¨ª ¬သခ²§¬ပ¦က±ÑÊ®°မည±¶ဖစ±¬·က§င±° စစ±တမ±°မ²§°က ¶ပသ¬နသ¶ဖင¯± ဟ³န±ဆန±သည± ¬¶ဗ§င±က²¬သ§ အ§ဏ§ရ´င±စနစ±က¨ª¬ရ³°ခ²ယ±လ¨ªက±သည±။

ထ¨ªသ¨ªÚ¬သ§ ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©ဆ¨ªင±ရ§ စα°စ§° သª®°သပ±ခ²က±မ²§°က¨ª တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®တ³င± စ¨တ±ဝင±စ§°¶ခင±° မရ´¨·ကဘ ဟ³န±ဆန±သည± အ¬န§က±Ð¨ªင±င®မ²§°၏ ¶ပစ±တင±¬ဝဖန±မÊမ²§°က¨ª ရင±ဆ¨ªင±ရ¬သ§¬·က§င¯± ¬ထ§က±ခ®မʬတ§င±°ဆ¨ªလ§¬သ§ အခ¦ တѪတ±က လØက±လØက±လ´လ´ ¹က¨Ëဆ¨ªသည±။

က¬မ�§ဒ©°ယ§° အ§ဏ§ရ´င±သည± အ¬မရ¨ကန±¶ပည±¬ထ§င±စª дင¯± ဥ¬ရ§ပသမဂ�တ¨ªÚက¨ª¬လ´§င±¬¶ပ§င±¸ပ©°ဖ³®Ù¸ဖ¨Ë°¬ရ° အက«အည©မ²§° ရပ±လ¨ªရပ±Ð¨ªင±သည±ဟª စ¨န±¬ခµသည±။

ထ¨ªအခ¦ အ¬မရ¨ကန±¶ပည±¬ထ§င±စªက က¬မ�§ဒ©°ယ§° ¬ရ³°¬က§က±ပ³ ¬က§±မရ´င±သ¨ªÚ ¬ပ°မည¯± အက«အည©အ¬မရ¨ကန±¬ဒµလ§ ၈ သန±°က¨ª ရပ±စလ¨ªက±သည±။ ထ¨ªပမ§ဏမ´§ တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®က ¬ပ°¬နသည¯± ¬ဒµလ§သန±° ရ§Ð´င¯±ခ²©¬သ§ အက«အည©မ²§°Ð´င¯± ယ´Î±လÀင± ¬ရတစက±မÀသ§ ¶ဖစ±¬နသည±။

၂၀၁၆ ခªÐ´စ± အတ³င±°တ³င± တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®သည± တ¨ªက±Ñ¨ªက± ရင±°Ð´©°¶မÉËပ±Ð´®မÊ စªစª¬ပ¦င±° ¬ဒµလ§ ၁၁ ဒသမ ၂ဘ©လ©ယ® ရင±°Ð´©°¶မÉËပ±Ð´®̧ ပ©° ထ¨ªပမ§ဏမ´§ က¬မ�§ဒ©°ယ§°Ð¨ªင±င®၏ စªစª¬ပ¦င±° ¶ပည±တ³င±°ထªတ±ကªန±၏ထက±ဝက± မက ရ´¨သည±။

ဘѫШªင±°၊ လ§အ¨ªÐ´င¯± ဗ©ယက±နမ± Шªင±င®မ²§°တ³င± အခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°Ð´င¯± လ³တ±လပ±မÊမ²§° ¬တ§င±ဆ¨ª¶ခင±°က¨ªလက±မခ®¬သ§ စနစ±မ²§° ဆက±လက± ရ´¨¬န·ကသည±။ က²န±အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´ Шªင±င®မ²§° အတ³က±အလ§°အလ§မ´§လည±° သ¨ပ±မ¬က§င±°လ´¬ပ။

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

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အင±ဒ¨ªန©°ရ´§°သည± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©Ð´င¯± လ«Úအခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°တ¨ªက±ပ³၏ ဗဟ¨ªခ²က±Ð´င¯± ¬ရ´Ùတန±°စစ±မ²က±Ð´§ ¶ဖစ±¬န¬သ°သည±။ ထ¨ªÐ¨ªင±င®သည± စစ±ဘက±က ¶ပန±လည± ¬ခ¦င±°¬ထ§င±မလ§Ð¨ªင±¬တ§¯သည¯± အဆင¯±က¨ª ¬က²§±¶ဖတ±ခ¯¸ပ©° ¶ဖစ±သည±။

သ¨ªÚ¬သ§±လည±° လ³တ±လပ±မÊдင¯± အ¬¶ခခ®အခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°မ²§°သည± တ¨ªက±စ§°ခ®¬နရက¨ª မ·က§¬သ°မ©ကတѪတ±လ«မ²¨Ë° ခရစ±ယ§န±ဘ§သ§ဝင± ဂ²က§တ§¸မ¨ËÙ¬တ§±ဝန±က¨ª ¬ထ§င±ခ²လ¨ªက±¶ခင±°က ¶ပသ¬နသည±။ဂ²က§တ§¸မ¨ËÙ¬တ§±ဝန±¬ဟ§င±° ဘ§ဆ«က© ဂ²ဟ§ဟ§ ပ¦န§မ§သည± အစ�လမ±ဘ§သ§က¨ª ¬စ§±က§°သည±ဟ«¬သ§ စ³ခ²က±¶ဖင¯± ¬ထ§င±ဒဏ±ခ²မ´တ±ခ®ရသည±။

အင±ဒ¨ªန©°ရ´§°Ð¨ªင±င®သည± ¬လ§က©ဝ¦ဒдင¯± ¬ရ³°¬က§က±ပ³ ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©စနစ±က¨ª စ©°ပ³§°¬ရ° တ¨ª°တက±မʶဖင¯±ဆက±လက± ထ¨န±°မထ§° Шªင±ပ¦က ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©¬န§က±¶ပန±¬လÀ§က²¶ခင±° ¶ဖစ±Ð¨ªင±သည±။

၂၀၁၈ ခªÐ´စ± ပထမдစ±ဝက±တ³င± ¬ရ³°¬က§က±ပ³Ð´င¯± ရင±ဆ¨ªင±ရ¬သ§¬·က§င¯± မ¬လ°ရ´§°ဝန±¹က©°ခ²Ëပ± န§ဂ²စ±ရ§ဇ§တ± (Najib Razak) သည± က¨ªယ±က²¨Ë°စ©°ပ³§° အတ³က± ¬င³¬·က° ¬ဒµလ§သန±° ရ§¬ပ¦င±°မ²§°စ³§ခဝ¦ခ²သည±ဟª အတ¨ªက±အခ®တ¨ªÚက စ³ပ±စ³¬သ§ 1Malaysia Development Berhad အÑÊပ±¬တ§±ပª®က¨ª¬က²§±လ¼§°Ð¨ªင±လªဆဆ အ¬နအထ§°တ³င±သ§ ရ´¨¬န¬သ°သည±။

ထ¨ª အÑÊပ±¬တ§±ပª®က¨ª Шªင±င®တက§ စª®စမ±°စစ±¬ဆ°မÊမ²§° ရ´¨ခ¯¬သ§±လည±° န§ဂ²စ±သည± အ§°နည±°¸ပ©° က³¸ပ¬န¬သ§ အတ¨ªက±အခ®မ²§°၊ အ§ဏ§ရ ည©Í³တ±¬သ§ မ¬လ°အမ²¨Ë°သ§° အစည±°အѪ®°၏ ပ®̄ပ¨ª°မÊдင¯± မ¬လ°ရ´§° အစ�လမ±မစ±ပ¦တ©Ð´င¯± မဟ§မ¨တ± ဖ³Ù¶ခင±°တ¨ªÚ¬·က§င¯± Шªင±င®¬ရ°တ³င± အစ�လမ± အခန±°ကÔ ပ¨ªမ¨ª¬ပ°¸ပ©° အ§ဏ§¶ပန±လည± ရရ´¨Ð¨ªင±¬သ°သည±။

အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±စနစ± အသ§စ©°ရလ§¸ပ©° ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©၊ လ«Úအခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°Ð´င¯± လ³တ±လပ±မÊ ¬န§က±¶ပန±ဆªတ±လ§¬သ§ အ¬¶ခအ¬နတ³င± အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´၌ စကħပ«သည± အမ²§°¶ပည±သ«က ¬ပ°အပ±¬သ§ လªပ±ပ¨ªင±ခ³င±အ¬ပµ အ¬¶ခခ®သည¯± အတည±¸င¨မ±ဆª®°၊ တª®Ú¶ပန± ¬ဆ§င±ရ³က±Ð¨ªင±ဆª®°Ð´င¯± တ§ဝန±ခ®မÊအရ´¨ဆª®° Шªင±င®¬ရ°စနစ±¶ဖစ±¬နသည±။

¬ဒသတ³င±° က²န±¬နရ§မ²§°တ³င± တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®သည± အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±စနစ±၏ ဝ´က±ဖ ¶ဖစ±လ§¬န¸ပ©° ၎င±°၏¹က©°မ§°လ´¬သ§ ဩဇ§က¨ª ဥ¬ရ§ပသမဂ�သည± ဝင±¬ရ§က±အ¬¶ခခ² ¬နထ¨ªင±မÊ ¶မင¯±မ§°¶ခင±°အ¬ပµလ«ထª၏ ¬ဒ¦သ¬·က§င¯± အနည±°ငယ±သ§ ခªခ®Ð¨ªင±သည±။

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

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အ¬မရ¨ကန±တ³င±မ« ¬ဒµနယ±ထရမ¯±က အ¬မရ¨ကန±သည± ဒªတ¨ယကမ�§စစ± ¬န§က±ပ¨ªင±° ကမ�§¯စနစ±က¨ª¬ထ§က±ခ® ပ®̄ပ¨ª°¬ပ°ထ§°¶ခင±°၏ သ§°¬က§င±¶ဖစ±ရသည± ဟª ¶မင±သည±။ ဤအ¶မင±သည± တѪတ±Ð´င¯±Ñªရ´§°က¨ª ¸ခ¨မ±°¬¶ခ§က±မÊ အ¶ဖစ± သတ±မ´တ± ထ§°သည¯± ဒ©ဇင±ဘ§လ ၁၈ ရက±¬နÚက ထªတ±¶ပန±သည¯± အ¬မရ¨ကန± အစ¨ª°ရ၏ အမ²¨Ë°သ§°လª®¶ခË®¬ရ° မ«ဝ¦ဒသစ±Ð´င¯± ဆက±စပ±မÊ မရ´¨¬သ§ အ¶မင± ¶ဖစ±သည±။

¬ခ¦င±°¬ထ§င±ထလ§¬သ§ အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±စနစ±က¨ª ¬ဒသတ³င±° တ³န±°လ´န±မÊသည± ဦ°တည±ဘက± ၃ ခªသ¨ªÚ ပ²®Ùд®Úသ³§°Ð¨ªင±သည±။ ပထမ အခ²က±အ¬န¶ဖင¯± က¬မ�§ဒ©°ယ§°Ð´င¯± ထ¨ªင±°Ð¨ªင±င®မ²§°မ´ မဆÐ�ရ´င±မ²§°သည± ၎င±°တ¨ªÚ၏ အခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°မ²§°Ð´င¯± တ§ဝန±ယ«မÊ တ§ဝန±ခ®မÊရ´¨¬သ§ အစ¨ª°ရ¬ပµ¬ပ¦က±¬ရ°အတ³က± ရပ±တည±သင¯±သည±။

၎င±°တ¨ªÚ အတ³က± စ¨န±¬ခµမÊမ´§ Шªင±င®¬ရ°တ¨ª°တက±မÊдင¯± စ©°ပ³§°¬ရ° စ³မ±°¬ဆ§င±ရည±က¨ª သ©°¶ခ§°စ© ခ³ထ§°¬ရ° ¶ဖစ±သည±။ ¬ဒသတ³င±°တ³င± ¶ပင±°ထန±¬သ§ စ©°ပ³§°¬ရ°ခ²Ùထ³င±¶ခင±°သည± အလ§°အလ§ ရ´¨¬သ§ လ«မÊမ¬က²နပ±မÊမ²§°က¨ª အ¹က©°အက²ယ± အတ§°အဆ©° ¶ဖစ±Ð¨ªင±သည±။ ¶ပည±သ«မ²§° အ¬န¶ဖင¯± ခ²မ±°သ§¿ကယ±ဝမÊ တ¨ª°ခ²Ù¬ရ° အတ³က±¬·က§င¯± မဟªတ±ဘ ၎င±°တ¨ªÚ၏ ဗ©ဇတန±ဖ¨ª° အတ³က± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ© အခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°မ²§°Ð´င¯± လ³တ±လပ±မÊ အတ³က± ရပ±တည±ရမည±။

ဒªတ¨ယအခ²က± အ¬န¶ဖင¯± အ¬¶ခခ¨ªင±¸ပ©° ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©Ð¨ªင±င®မ²§°သည± အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င± အ§ရ´တ³င± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©တ¨ª°တက±မÊက¨ª က§က³ယ±ရန± ၎င±°တ¨ªÚ၏ တ§ဝန±မ²§°က¨ª ထမ±°¬ဆ§င±·ကရမည± ¶ဖစ±သည±။ ထ¨ªÚ¬·က§င¯± ဥ¬ရ§ပдင¯± အ¬မရ¨ကမ´ ¶ပည±သ«မ²§°သည± ၎င±°တ¨ªÚ၏ ¶ပည±တ³င±° နစ±န§မÊမ²§°က¨ª ¬¶ဖရ´င±°¸ပ©° လ«¸ပ¨န±°¹က¨Ëက±ဝ¦ဒ ပ¨ªမ¨ª¬¶ခကªပ±ရလ§¶ခင±°က¨ª တ§°ဆ©°ရမည±။

အ¬¶ခခ¨ªင±¸ပ©° ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©မ²§° အ¬န¶ဖင¯± လ«Úအခ³င¯±အ¬ရ°Ð´င¯± လ³တ±လပ±မÊသည± စ©°ပ³§°¬ရ°ဖ³®Ù¸ဖ¨Ë°မÊдင¯±တ¨ª°တက±မÊдင¯± ဆက±စပ±¬န¬·က§င±° သက±¬သ¶ပရန± ဝင±¬င³ဆ¨ªင±ရ§ ¶ပဿန§မ²§°တ³င±လည±° ပ¨ªမ¨ª¬က§င±°မ³န±စ³§ လªပ±¬ဆ§င±ရန± လ¨ªသည±။ ဩစ¬တ°လÀ၊ အ¨Ð�¨ယдင¯± ဂ²ပန±တ¨ªÚသည± အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´အတ³က± အဓ¨က ¬ခ¦င±°¬ဆ§င±မ²§°¶ဖစ±သည±။ ဤ အမ§ခ® အင±ဒ¨ªပ¨စ¨ဖ¨တ± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©မ²§°သည± ဖ³®Ù¸ဖ¨Ë°ဆအ§ရ´က¨ª ဦ°¬ဆ§င±ရန± ပ¨ªမ¨ªလªပ±¬ဆ§င±သင¯±သည±။

¬န§က±ဆª®°အ¬န¶ဖင¯± တѪတ±Ð¨ªင±င®မ´ Шªင±င®¬ရ° သ¬ဘ§ထ§° က³လ³မÊမ²§°က¨ª ¬ထ§က±ခ® အ§°¬ပ°သင¯±¸ပ©°¶ပည±ပ¬ဈ°က³က± ¬ဝစªရရန± ၎င±°တ¨ªÚ၏ ¶ပည±တ³င±° ¬ဈ°က³က±က¨ª အ¶မတ±ထªတ±¬ရ° အတ³က± အစ¨ª°ရက

1/16/2018 အေ���ေတာငအ်ာ��တငွ ်အာဏာပိ�ငဝ်ါဒ ေခါငး်ေထာငလ်ာေနသည်

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¶ပËစªပ²¨Ë°¬ထ§င± ¬ပ°ထ§°¬သ§ တѪတ± ကªမ�ဏ©မ²§°က¨ª စ¨စစ±¸ပ©° ၎င±°တ¨ªÚက¨ª အ¬ပµယ®တန±ဖ¨ª°¶ဖင¯± လက±မခ®သင¯±¬ပ။

အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´၏ သမ¨ªင±°သည± ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©၊ လ³တ±လပ±¬သ§ ¬ဈ°က³က±တ¨ªÚдင¯± န¨ဂª®°ခ²Ëပ±¬က§င±° ခ²Ëပ±မည± မဟªတ±¬သ§± လည±° ထ¨ª¬ဒသက¨ª အစ¨ª°ရက ကမကထ¶ပË အရင±°ရ´င±စနစ±Ð´င¯± အ¬¶ခခ® လ³တ±လပ±မÊдင¯± လ³တ±လပ±မÊက¨ªု ခ²ည¯±နÚ¬စ သ¨ªÚမဟªတ± ဖ²က±သ¨မ±°¬သ§ Шªင±င®¬ရ° အ§ဏ§ဗဟ¨ªခ²Ëပ±က¨ªင±မÊလမ±°¬·က§င±°သ¨ªÚ ဦ°မတည±¬စသင¯±¬ပ။

(www.asia.nikkei.com တ³င± ¬ဖ§±¶ပထ§°သည¯± Thitinan Pongsudhirak ၏ Authoritarianism isaccelerating in Southeast Asia က¨ª ဘ§သ§¶ပန±သည±။ ၎င±°သည± Шªင±င®တက§ Шªင±င®¬ရ°¬ဘ§ဂ¬ဗဒ သင±·က§°¬ပ°¬နသ« ¶ဖစ±¸ပ©° ဘန±¬က§က±ရ´¨ ခ²Ìလ§¬လ§င±က³န±° တက�သ¨ªလ±၏ လª®¶ခ®¬ရ°Ð´င¯± Шªင±င®တက§¬လ¯လ§¬ရ° သ¨ပ�®က¨ª ¹က©°·ကပ±သ« ¶ဖစ±သည±။)

Topics: ဒ©မ¨ªက¬ရစ©, အ¬ရ´Ù¬တ§င±အ§ရ´, အ§ဏ§ပ¨ªင±ဝ¦ဒ

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