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327

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72(2060) 122(2110)10 1

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population projection 3)

2) 1)

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forecast

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projection

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7) 39.9

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8) 2010 10 1 2011 9 30

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9) 2011 79.44 85.90

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

2005106.3

1.26

1973209.2

2.14

1966136.1

1.58

1949269.7

4.32

( )

2011105.1

1.39

-- --

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10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1.12

(1985 )

1.00

(1995 )

0.82

(2010 )

- -

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10)

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30 ( 1955 ) 8,928 12,879 1.44

35 ( 1960 ) 9,342 12,942 1.39

40 ( 1965 ) 9,827 13,079 1.33

45 ( 1970 ) 10,372 13,319 1.28

50 ( 1975 ) 11,194 13,760 1.23

55 ( 1980 ) 11,706 13,649 1.17

60 ( 1985 ) 12,105 13,513 1.12

2 ( 1990 ) 12,361 13,179 1.07

3 ( 1991 ) 12,404 13,103 1.06

4 ( 1992 ) 12,445 13,001 1.04

5 ( 1993 ) 12,476 12,872 1.03

6 ( 1994 ) 12,503 12,785 1.02

7 ( 1995 ) 12,557 12,608 1.00

8 ( 1996 ) 12,586 12,575 1.00

9 ( 1997 ) 12,617 12,426 0.98

10 ( 1998 ) 12,649 12,294 0.97

11 ( 1999 ) 12,669 12,113 0.96

12 ( 2000 ) 12,693 11,997 0.95

13 ( 2001 ) 12,729 11,855 0.93

14 ( 2002 ) 12,744 11,735 0.92

15 ( 2003 ) 12,762 11,559 0.91

16 ( 2004 ) 12,769 11,393 0.89

17 ( 2005 ) 12,777 11,136 0.87

18 ( 2006 ) 12,777 11,014 0.86

19 ( 2007 ) 12,777 10,905 0.85

20 ( 2008 ) 12,769 10,744 0.84

21 ( 2009 ) 12,751 10,631 0.83

22 ( 2010 ) 12,806 10,494 0.82

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1.0 1.0 2060 50

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(3) 72(2060)

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1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

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1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

18

24

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- -

- -

70

75

80

85

90

95

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

18

24

24

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0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

18

24

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62.2 (

31.0 ) 395.9 (197.6 ) 13.5

(6.7 ) 271.2 ( 135.4 )

2

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100 2005 2010

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751.6 861.4 8.4

9.4

132.2 117.0

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15 64 4,595.1 4,706.3

51.1 51.2

225.6 173.7

598.8 526.9

65 3,646.3 3,625.7 20.7

40.5 39.4 1.1

162.8%

65

2055 65

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152.5

89,930 91,933 2,003 622 3,959 135 -2,712 -1,634 -1,079 -669 -4097,516 8,614 1,098 76 1,452 15 -445 -237 -208 -126 -82

45,951 47,063 1,112 485 2,507 51 -1,931 -1,052 -879 -547 -33136,463 36,257 -207 60 0 69 -336 -344 8 4 4

100.0% 31.0% 197.7% 6.7% -135.4% -81.6% -53.9% -33.4% -20.4%100.0% 7.0% 132.2% 1.3% -40.5% -21.6% -18.9% -11.4% -7.5%100.0% 43.6% 225.6% 4.6% -173.7% -94.7% -79.1% -49.2% -29.8%100.0% -29.2% 0.0% -33.5% 162.8% 166.6% -3.8% -1.8% -2.0%

8.4% 9.4% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0%51.1% 51.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.1%40.5% 39.4% -1.1% -0.2% -1.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

100.0% 2.7% 117.0% 0.2% -19.9% -8.6% -11.3% -6.6% -4.7%100.0% 192.8% 526.9% -20.9% -598.8% -232.1% -366.6% -228.9% -137.7%100.0% 19.1% 152.5% -1.6% -69.9% -27.9% -42.0% -25.8% -16.2%

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15) 15 49

15 50 15 49

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16)

24 1

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

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1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

(2010 )

(2005 )

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2

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0.0

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2.5

1947

52

1952

57

1957

62

1962

67

1967

72

1972

77

1977

82

1982

87

1987

92

1992

97

20 24

25 29

30 34

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1965

69

1970

74

1975

79

1980

84

1985

89

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94

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99

2000

04

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09

2010

14

2015

19

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- -10 TFR

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0

20

40

60

80

100

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2010

2015

2020

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0.0

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1990

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28)2012 24 1

2011 Population Projections for Korea: 2010-2060. Instituto Nazionale di Statistica (2010). Previsioni regionali della popolazione residente al

2065. Federal Statistical Office (2009). Germany’s Population by 2060: Results of the 12th

coordinated population projection. Statistik Austria (2011) .Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung 2011-2050, sowie

Modellrechnung bis 2075 für Oberösterreich (Hauptszenario). Bundesamt für Statistik (2010). Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz

2010-2060.Statistics Norway (2012). Population projections. National and regional figures,

2012-2100. Office for National Statistics (2011). 2010-based national population projections - principal

projection and key variants. Statistics Sweden(2011). .

Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economique(INSEE)(2010). Projections de population 2007-2060 pour la France métropolitaine.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008). Population Projections Australia 2006 to 2101.

U.S.Census Breau (2008). 2009 National Population Projections (Supplemental).

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- -26

- -26

1.08 1.26 1.32 1.34 1.41 1.42

1.79 2.06

1.84 1.79 1.77 1.94

1.23 1.39 1.41 1.39 1.44

1.54

1.89 1.93 1.95 1.98 1.98 2.03

1.42 1.35

1.60

1.40 1.50 1.52

1.80

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1.84 1.82 1.95

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

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- -27

79.6 78.0

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77.2

79.5 79.5 78.9 77.7 77.5 78.2

76.2

84.2 86.0 86.0 86.2 86.6

85.0 84.7 86.0 85.9

85.0 86.9

81.0

86.4 84.7 84.6 84.1 84.1 84.0 83.5 83.2 83.2 82.6 82.3

81.1

90.9 91.1 90.0

91.1 90.3

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65

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95 2010 2060

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67.7 79.1

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0

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2012

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2016

2018

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2036

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0.0

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2010

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2016

2018

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2024

2026

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2030

2032

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2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095

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23.0

63.8

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095

100+

2060

9.1

39.9

50.9

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095

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2010

13.4

66.0

20.6

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095

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- -31

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2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

5

10

15

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25

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45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

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2010

19.0

67.3

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2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

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2060

17.5

57.4

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2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

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90

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2010

18.3

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2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

5

10

15

20

25

30

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(2)

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

-- --

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24

2060

2.00 1.75 1.50 1.251.00

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0

0.5

1

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2.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

2.00

1.75

1.50

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7.10

5 10 2550 75 100

20302030

20302031

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1.00 7,659 2010 62110 2,556

9,516 2.002110

-800000

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0

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400000

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1200000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

5

10

25

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100

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

2.00

1.75

1.50

1.25

1.00

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

2.00

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1.00 2060 45.2% 211051.2%

- - - -

752060 50 1 1,484

2.00 1 874 25 9,7991.75 9,974

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2060 50 31.9%2.00 31.9% 25 36.2%

1.75 34.7% 2110 5033.4% 2.00 28.3% 25

37.6% 1.75 32.6%

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

0

5

10

25

50

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10020

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

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1 20601 28

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