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11.

HYDROLOGICALMODELSANDMODELLING

1 L-C Lundin is responsible for the introduction to the area and the compilation of model examples, Sten Bergstrmcontributed with the water balance modelling, Erik Eriksson is responsible for the description of the various model types,and Jan Seibert wrote the part on model application.

L-C Lundin, Sten Bergstrm, Erik Eriksson & Jan Seibert1

Models a synthesis

Although the hydrological cycle is a system that is

fairly easy to grasp and understand, it is far from

easy to quantify the processes in the system. In order

to do this various types of hydrological models are

used. The term hydrological models is here used

in wide sense, meaning all models describing the hy-

drological cycle or its major parts. Variations in cli-

mate, topography, land types and land-use as well as

various man-made interferences with the system make

it very difficult to construct general models that treat

the whole hydrological cycle in any given catchment

in the world. Most models only treat a part of the cycle,

e.g., runoff or groundwater-flow. Models developed in

a certain climatic or geologic region often have diffi-

culties when used in a different setting.

Models are simplified systems that represent real

systems. In the case of hydrological models the real

system may be an entire river basin or parts of it (e.g.,

only the river itself, a small headwater catchment, or

a soil column). Hydrological models can range from

sand-filled boxes to complicated computer program.

The first type is called scale models. In these the realsystem is reproduced on a reduced scale. The second

type, where a number of equations stand for the real

system, is termed mathematical (or symbolic) model.

Hydrological models can also be classified into con-

ceptual models and physically based models. The

conceptual models are rough simplifications of real-

ity, conceptualising the ideas of important processes

and simulating internal variables, such as soil mois-

ture, by various types of response functions. In physi-

cally based models the processes are described by

detailed physical equations. In practise, even physi-

cally based models often have elements of empirical

or conceptual equations.Although hydrological models basically aim at

giving figures to various flows in the hydrological

system they also have an important role as pedagogi-

cal and research tools. In a model, all parameters have

to be quantified and specified, preferable so that their

value can be deduced from actual field measure-

ments. Their relative importance can then also be

assessed. Research models are focused on process

studies and the development of new knowledge and

tend to be very complex and not always user friendly,

whereas operational models are more focused on pro-

ducing background data for decisions and planning.

The terminology in the modelling community can

sometimes be somewhat of a barrier for non-model-

lers. In the following, the ambition is to use a simple

language, not going in to details. A few central con-

cepts are however used and will be briefly described:

Aparameteris a control device in the model, much

like the volume knob on a radio. Most models use a

number of parameters to control soil, land, climate and

river properties.Input data, or driving data, are the data

sets that are processed by the model and results or out-

put data are the results of the processing. It is a well-

known truth that the quality of the results will not be

any better than the quality of the input data. State vari-

ables andflow variables are the also central, being the

value or level in a model box and the flow of a prop-

erty between boxes. State variables often are expressedin units of height (mm) or energy content (J) whereas

flows would then have the unit mm/s or W.

Use of hydrological models

Hydrological models have become increasingly im-

portant tools for the management of the water re-

sources of the Baltic basin. They are used for flow

forecasting to support reservoir operation, for flood

protection, in spillway design studies and for many

other purposes. Recently hydrological models have

found a new role in studies of climate change im-pacts on water resources (Saelthun et al., 1998).

Hydrological models are used for several practi-

cal purposes. Imagine a flood disaster: during the

flood event a model may help to predict when and where

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Step in model application - Example

Identify problem

Determine the probable maximum flood

Available data

15-year series of runoff, precipitation and temperature, sequence of probable maximum precipitation

Choice of model

HBV model (it fits the needs and there is a lot of experience from previous applications in Sweden)

Determination of parameter values by measurements and/or calibration

All parameters of the HBV model have to be calibrated (the first 10 years are used for calibration), an acceptable agreement

between observed and simulated runoff is obtained

Validation

The model is run (without changing parameter values) for the 5-year period which was not used for calibration, the simulations

agree acceptable with the observations

Solve the problem

The probable maximum precipitation sequence is inserted at different times (seasons, years) and the model is run to simulate

the flood caused by this sequence

Table 11.1. The different steps in hydrological modelling

there is a risk of flooding (e.g., which areas should be

evacuated). After the flood, models may be used to

quantify the risk that a flood of similar or larger magni-

tude will occur during the coming years and to decide

what measures of flood protection may be needed for

the future. Furthermore, models may help to understand

the reasons for the magnitude of flood (e.g., if the flood

was enlarged by human activities in the catchment).

Other types of hydrological models are used inplanning of groundwater management. These mod-

els are often referred to as groundwater models or

hydrogeological models. The Soil-Vegetation-At-

mosphere Transfer (SVAT) models concentrate on

the evaporation and heat exchange at the Earths sur-

face and have a wide use in plant production studies

and also in climate modelling.

Hydrological models focus on the pathways

and the actual fluxes of the water, but since water

also is the main transport media in nature attention

to the transported substances is becoming more and

more important. Groundwater models, e.g., are of-

ten able to quantify the transport of dissolved sub-

stances as well, making them important tools in pol-

lution studies. Runoff models are used as a basis for

calculation of sediment transport and substances dis-

solved in the river water. Soil water flows calculated

by SVAT models are used as the basis for transport

of nutrients and pesticides.

Model application

The typical steps in a model application can be sum-

marised as shown in Table 11.1. The steps are illus-trated by an example where a design flood is needed

for the planning of a hydropower plant. Note, how-

ever, that calculation of design flows is a complex

task and different procedures are used in different

parts of the Baltic region. Variations from this sim-

plified presentation can thus occur. First, the prob-

lem to be solved has to be identified and a list of

available data has to be compiled. Based on this in-

formation one has to choose a suitable model. The

parameter values have to be determined on the basisof measurements. Usually, this is possible only for

some of the parameters and the others have to be

estimated by calibration. In this case, their values

are changed (manually or by some automatic cali-

bration algorithm) until a satisfactory agreement be-

tween observed and simulated runoff is achieved.

Before the model with its calibrated or measured pa-

rameter values is used to solve the problem, its capa-

bility to simulate an independent period should be

tested. This test usually is called validation.

Hydrological models

Water balance simulation and prediction

Runoff models are probably what most hydrologists

spontaneously refer to when discussing hydrological

models. This was also the first branch in which models

were used when computers became easily available in

the 1970s. The basic principle in hydrological model-

ling is that the model is used to calculate river flow

based on meteorological data, which are available in a

basin or in its vicinity. Hydrological models include

subroutines for the most significant hydrological proc-esses, such as snow accumulation and melt at different

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1http://www.smhi.se/sgn0106/if/hydrologi/hbv.htm

elevations, soil moisture dynamics, evapotranspiration,

recharge of groundwater, runoff generation and rout-

ing in lakes and rivers. Most runoff models are basedon the water balance, using precipitation as a driving

variable and calculating the quantities directed as run-

off, R, from the water balance equation,

R = P E DS,

where P is precipitation, E evapotranspiration, and

DS represents various storage terms.

In general, the different driving forces for develop-

ment, refining and application of models can be grouped

into three classes. At first, models can be used instead

of expensive or time demanding measurements. Often,

climatic data (e.g., precipitation and temperature) aremuch easier available than runoff data. In the case of

extending runoff series with historical climatic data,

the alternative of direct measurements becomes impos-

sible. Secondly, models are used for short- and long-

term forecasts and to serve as a basis for management

decisions. Long-term forecasts, with a time scale of

months or more, are, for instance, needed to operate

hydropower reservoirs in an optimal way. Models can

also contribute to answering what if questions, e.g.,

what will be the effect of a changed land use or what

are the hydrological implications of a climatic change.

The third point is the use of models to compile and im-

part knowledge of real systems and their functioning.

Water balance models are often divided into three

categories; lumped models, distributed models, and

stochastic models.

Lumped models are often used for planning of

water management programs in river systems with

power stations. The term lumped implies that the

entire catchment is made into a few boxes of water

reservoirs, usually the root zone, the unsaturated zone

and the groundwater storage. These models are most

often conceptual and are also referred to as empiri-

cal or black-box models. Only the output (runoff)

generated by a certain input (precipitation, tempera-

ture, etc.) is of interest and an input is transformed

into an output by simple equations, which have noassociation with the real processes. The natural flow

rates between boxes are set by parameters, which

must be assessed by optimisation procedures, con-

sidering observed data with computed. The output is

discharge to the river system.

The weakness of lumped models is the way pa-

rameters are selected which makes them inter-corre-

lated. The way boxes are interconnected is immate-

rial since optimisation always finds parameter sets

for best fit. Inter-correlated parameters indicate that

there are too many parameters or too many boxes.

An improvement should entail assessment of param-

eters independent of the model but for a lumped

model this is difficult since a lumped model is, con-

ceptually, a poor substitute for a real river basin.

The spatial resolution of a model varies; lumped

models represent the entire catchment by a few boxes

and no spatial differentiations are considered, and

distributed models divide the catchment into a large

number of cells (e.g., 100 by 100 metres). In between

there are semi-distributed models where the catch-

ment area is grouped into different classes (e.g., el-

evation or vegetation zones) but only the proportion

and not the spatial distribution of each class is con-

sidered. Event-based models concentrate on singlefloods whereas continuous models allow simulating

runoff series.

An example of a widely used lumped model is the

HBV1 (after the Hydrological Bureau Water-balance

section) model presented in more detail below. The

model developments have gone in the direction of

discretisation of the drainage basin in sub-basins and

elevation zones and the model is therefore sometimes

also referred to as a distributed model. In the Nordic

countries the HBV model, with roots in the early 1970s,

is the most commonly used hydrological model

(Bergstrm, 1995; Lindstrm et al., 1997). Its configu-

ration is shown schematically in Figure 11.1.There are many different versions of HBV-model

software besides the original SMHI version. One re-

cent version is HBV light, which has been devel-

oped at Uppsala University (Seibert, 1997). One mo-

tivation to develop this version of the HBV model

Figure 11.1. Schematic figure of the HBV hydrologicalmodel showing its main computational components.

Climate input

SnowEvapotranspiration

Soil moisture

Runoff Routing

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Figure 11.2. The MIKE SHE model from Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI).

2http://www.es.lancs.ac.uk/hfgd/topmodel.html3http://www.dhi.dk/gishydro/mikeshe/Mshemain.htm

was to improve the user-friendliness, especially con-sidering the use in education. During the last years

the new version has been used successfully in sev-

eral courses. HBV light corresponds in principle to

the version described by Bergstrm (1992; 1995) with

only slight changes. In order to keep the software as

simple as possible several functions available in the

SMHI version have not been implemented into HBV

light. It is, for instance, not possible to divide the

catchment into subbasins.

Distributed models are laborious to construct since

they normally require a detailed hydrologic descrip-

tion of the area, to be used for delineating homo-

geneous sub-areas. Once this is accomplished fielddata are collected to assess parameters for the sub-

areas. The variation of the recharge part within

sub-areas should also be made and related func-

tionally to the groundwater level by a parameter.

Evapotranspiration also need observed parameters

in order to function properly. The ground within a

sub-area can be divided into root zone and

groundwater storage. Hydraulic conductivity,

groundwater surface slope and direction of slope

computed from adjacent sub-areas govern

groundwater flow. Most of the parameters will thus

be obtained independent of the model. The devel-

opment cost of the model would be high but this

is an investment cost for a reliable and solid con-

struction. The effect of forest management is easy

to include.

Examples of this type of model are TOPMODEL,

which can be downloaded as freeware for educational

and research use2

, the commercial model SystemeHydrologique Europeen (MIKE SHE)3, developed

and promoted by Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI)

and the research-oriented model ECOMAG

(ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics), devel-

oped in Russia.

Rain and snow

fromintercepted waters

Evapotranspiration

fromroot zonefrom soil

or water surfaces

Abstractionand recharge

Rootzone

Surface runoff

2-dimensional overland andchannel flow model(rectangular grid)

Canopy interceptionmodel

Net precipitation

Snow melt model

Infiltration

Water tablerise and fall

3-dimensional saturatedflow groundwater model(rectangular grid)

1-dimensional unsaturatedflow model for eachgrid element

Lake or reservoir

Exchangethrough seepage faces

Exchangeacross boundaries

http://www.es.lancs.ac.uk/hfgd/topmodel.htmlhttp://www.dhi.dk/gishydro/mikeshe/Mshemain.htmhttp://www.dhi.dk/gishydro/mikeshe/Mshemain.htmhttp://www.es.lancs.ac.uk/hfgd/topmodel.html

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4http://www.hec.usace.army.mil

TOPMODEL (Beven, 1997) is a rainfall-runoff

model using an analysis of catchment topography as

its bases for distributed predictions. The idea is that

the model should be simple enough to be modified

by the user. Developments of the TOPMODEL are

thus widespread in research applications.

MIKE SHE is an advanced integrated hydrologi-

cal modelling system (Figure 11.2). It simulates wa-

ter flow in the hydrological cycle from rainfall to

river flow, via various flow processes such as, over-

land flow, infiltration into soils, evapotranspiration

from vegetation, and groundwater flow. It is normally

used in regional studies covering entire river basins,often carried out by consultant companies as well as

in local studies focusing on specific problems on

small scale often being research applications.

ECOMAG (Motovilov et al., 1999) is a physi-

cally based distributed model, much of the same type

as SHE. However, it leans less heavily on support

from extensive data sets on catchment properties

and also has a module treating transport and reac-

tions of chemical substances in the catchment. The

basic input data are topographical and

geomorphological properties of the catchment. The

model also applies stochastic approaches using dis-

tributions functions in order to describe parametervariation within model elements. A guiding princi-

ple is to keep parameters and state variables inter-

pretable in a physical sense.

Since the concepts of the ECOMAG model

structure are fairly representative of the different

distributed models they will be

presented in some detail below

(Figure 11.3).

The catchment is divided into

a number of elements that are

treated as homogeneous areas.

Each element is described by its

inclination and is made a mem-

ber of a specific soil class,groundwater-zone class, vegeta-

tion class and land-use class. For

each class a specific parameter

set is used. Some of these param-

eters are, as mentioned above,

given values as stochastic distri-

bution functions rather than ab-

solute values. The vertical fluxes

and distribution of properties are

described by dividing each ele-

ment into three layers, A-hori-

zon, B-horizon, and ground-wa-

ter zone, treated as linear and non-linear storages.

Horizontal flow of soil water is described by the

Darcy equation and the equation of continuity

whereas overland flow and river flow is described

by Mannings formula.

Stochastic models for river basins are constructed

on the basis of river discharge history describing river

discharge by a long term mean, possibly a long term

trend, seasonal variation, and a random component

treated as a stochastic process with e.g.

autoregression parameters or, alternatively as con-

ditional distributions. The seasonal variation in

stochastic parameters is usually very large, at leastin the northern part of the region. These models are

generally used for dimensioning purposes and have

little forecasting use.

Hydraulic models

The hydraulic models are used to calculate water stage,

or water-surface profiles along a river or channel. They

can also be used to determine areas inundated by flood

discharges and to study the effects on floodplains.

Specialised models can predict effects of various

obstructions such as bridges, culverts, weirs andstructures in the over-bank region into account.

An example of a well established hydraulic model is

the HEC4 (US Army Corps of Engineers - Hydraulic

Engineering Center) model. The model comes in sev-

eral varieties and with various couplings to analysis tools.

Riverflow

p recip itation

surface water sto rage surface wa ter outflo w

subsu rfac eout fl owho rizonA

subsurfa ce out flo whorizon B

gr oun dwa ter outflow

ice partic les

field capacity

WP

E4

s u r facewaterinflo w

subsu rfac ein flowho rizonA

subsu rfac ein flowho rizonB

grou ndw aterinflo w

porosity

s

lio

s

li

o

i

m

rta

x

i

m

rta

x

groundwa te rzone

h o rizon B

h4

evapotranspiration

melt watersnow cove r

horizon A

infiltration

return

flow

penetration

penetration

h3

Z4

h2

Z2

Z3

capillaryzone

non

zonecapillary

infiltration

h1

h5

non

zonecapillary

capillaryzone

E5

E1

E2

E3

Figur 11.3. Vertical structur for a model element in the ECOMAG model(Motovilov et al., 1999).

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Several of the models described are freeware and can be downloaded from the Internet addressesgiven for use in education and science at no cost. These models cannot be used commerciallywithout special agreement with the owner of the model rights. For some commercial models demoversions are available for download.

Although most models today are running under Windows, be sure to check that the model runs

under an operating system that you have available. Some models also requires special software fordata management, generation of model elements and data analyses.

In many cases demonstration data sets are supplied which are very helpful when evaluating themodel. They may even be of use for the preparation of minor exercises or model experiments. Somemodel developers run newsletters and present lists of publications in which model results were pre-sented and discussed. In most cases documentation is needed in order to operate the models prop-erly. Document files are often to be downloaded separately.

For some models it is even possible to download the program code in order to be able to makemodifications and further model development. This option is primarily for the experienced modeluser, but could be an option for a thesis or diploma work. It is then good practise to send an e-mail tothe model owner stating the problem studied and the development need foreseen. This often leads tohints of new versions or contacts with students and researchers interested in similar problems.

The references given in this chapter are focussed on model descriptions and manuals. Scientific

references and examples of model applications are often found on the home pages of the respectivemodels.

DOWNLOADINGMODELS

Models for sediment transport

Soil erosion within a river system is bound to de-

crease the usefulness of regulated reservoirs and is

therefore important to master by suitable measures.

Existing methods to predict the useful lifetime of a

reservoir is to assess the transport of suspended load

by the river and assume that this load will settle inthe reservoir. Since the source of the load is soils

bordering the river system measures should be taken

to decrease the soil erosion within the catchment. In

order to achieve this one must have a proper con-

cept of the erosion process, particularly of gully ero-

sion and landslides. Since these two are related to

high pore pressures models in future must include

groundwater formation and flow pattern that will

indicate where such erosion may occur. The only way

to decrease pore pressure is by drainage. High pore

pressure will appear where clay rich soil overlays

fracture zones in hard rock areas.

For sediment transport, erosion and deposition inrivers there are varieties of the HEC model, e.g.,

HEC-6 to be used.

Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere transfer

models

In order to describe the exchange of water and heat

between the Earths surface and the atmosphere, Soil-

Vegetation-Atmosphere transfer (SVAT) models are

used. These models are often one dimensional, de-

scribing a column based on the groundwater surface

and reaching up to some few metres in the atmos-

phere. The models involve more or less sophisticated

descriptions of vegetation, sometimes as a static com-

ponent and sometimes taking plant dynamics into

account. The soil description can be more or less

detailed and a few models also allow for treatment

of soil frost. Snow routines are also an important

issue in the Baltic region. This feature is incorpo-

rated in some SVAT models. A large number of SVAT

models are today available, some are detailed re-

search models and some more general and opera-

tional. SVAT schemes are also used in the Global

Circulation Models (GCM) when assessing the im-

pact of climate change. These schemes are in princi-

ple very similar to regular SVAT models but the scale

treated is much larger and the formulations thus gen-

erally much simpler.

In large scale simulations two concepts are com-monly used, the bucket model and big-leaf model.

The bucket model is an extreme simplification of a

runoff module. A box, the bucket, is gradually being

filled with runoff, generated as a rest term of the

water balance equation. When it is full it is tipped

into the ocean. In the big-leaf model a single leaf

covering the model element, often in the order of

square kilometres, is modelled to represent all veg-

etation in the element. Although it is easy to criti-

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Figure 11.4. Model structure of the heat and water flow parts of the CoupModel (Jansson, 1998).

5http://www.lwr.kth.se/Vara%20Dataprogram/CoupModel/

cise these concepts they work surprisingly well for

large-scale applications. Refinements have also been

presented of these concepts.

SVAT models use climatic data, e.g., precipita-

tion, net radiation, wind, as input. The output is typi-

cal soil moisture, groundwater formation, soil tem-

perature etc, but could also be latent and sensible

heat flux, groundwater flux or runoff. One should

be aware that in all cases the output data represents

the point or possibly field scale and if data are pre-

sented to represent other scales additional aggrega-

tion has been preformed.

As an example of a SVAT model the model

CoupModel5 (Jansson & Karlberg, 2004) is presented

below. CoupModel is an extended version of the

SOIL model, incorporating nitrogen and carbon flux

modules. This model is frequently used in a number

of countries in the Baltic region and is adopted to simu-

late the climate, geology and vegetation of the region.

It is also a freeware model, used in both scientific work

and undergraduate education. The purpose of the

CoupModel is to quantify and increase the understand-ing concerning hydrological and thermal processes

in the soil.

The basic structure of the model is a depth pro-

file of the soil; one set of boxes handle water flow

and another handle heat flow (Figure 11.4). The

model is thus capable of simulating coupled heat and

water flows, a necessity in order to treat soil frost in

a physically based matter. Processes such as

snowmelt, interception of precipitation and evapo-

transpiration are also treated explicitly.

The basic assumptions behind the model equa-

tions are very simple:

The law of conservation of mass and energy and

flows occur as a result of gradients in water potential

(Richards equation) or temperature (Fouriers law).

The model focuses on the soil profile and processes

related to this. The calculations of water and heat

flows are based on soil properties such as: the water

retention curve, functions for unsaturated and satu-

rated hydraulic conductivity, the heat capacity in-

cluding the latent heat at thawing/melting and func-

tions for the thermal conductivity. The model can

handle various types of vegetation such as forest,

agricultural plants. The most important plant prop-

erties are: development of vertical root distributions,

the surface resistance for water flow between plant

and atmosphere during periods with a non-limitingwater storage in the soil, how the plants regulate

water uptake from the soil and transpiration when

stress occurs, how the plant cover influences both

aerodynamic conditions in the atmosphere and the

radiation balance at the soil surface.

Groundwaterinflow

Groundwater

outflow

Percolation

Externalsources/sinks

Soil surface temperatureor soil heat flow

Surfacerunoff

Evaporation

Soilevaporation

Wateruptakeby

roots

Interception

Snow

Surface pool

Precipitation

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Figure 11.5. Features of an aquifer system that can be simulated by the USGS model MODFLOW.

MACRO6 (Jarvis, 1994) is an example of a spe-

cialised model for water flow and reactive solute

transport, e.g., pesticide transport, in macroporous

field soils. The model is physically based, one-

dimensional, and divides the soil porosity into two

flow systems or domains (macropores and

micropores) each characterized by a flow rate and

solute concentration. The model can be coupled

to MACRO_DB, a decision-support tool for pre-

dicting pesticide fate and mobility in soils. The sys-

tem allows access to various databases on soils, com-

pound, climate, and information on typical planting

and harvest dates, root depths, etc. The user can also

develop parallel databases for additional soils and

new compounds.

Groundwater models

Groundwater models take over where most SVAT

models end, i.e., at the groundwater surface, and are

used to simulate systems for, e.g., water supply, con-

taminant remediation and mine dewatering. Many

groundwater models also treat transport of dissolved

substances in the groundwater. The basis for the cal-

culations is the Laplace equation, describing

groundwater flow. The numerical solution calls for a

grid net that covers the aquifer studied. For three-

dimensional models the work of generating the grid

net can be considerable, especially if the aquifer

boundaries are irregular. Special grid generating soft-

ware is often needed and contouring programs may

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6http://www.mv.slu.se/bgf/Macrohtm/macro.htm

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7http://water.usgs.gov/nrp/gwsoftware/modflow.html8http://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/model_db/mdb/soil-n.html

also be useful in order to visualise resulting

groundwater surfaces.

MODFLOW7 (USGS Modular Three-Dimen-

sional Ground-Water Flow Model) is perhaps the

most widely used groundwater model (Figure 11.5).

The basic programme is developed by the United

States Geological Survey (USGS) and available as

freeware but there are also many extended versions

sold by various scientific software companies. Theseversions are more fancy and have a better-developed

user interface but basically produce the same results.

MODFLOW is a three-dimensional groundwater

flow model that simulates steady and non-steady flow

in irregularly shaped flow systems. Aquifer layers

can be confined, unconfined, or a combination of

confined and unconfined. Flow from external

stresses, such as flow to wells, areal recharge,

evapotranspiration, flow to drains, and flow through

riverbeds, can be simulated.

Models for hydrochemical transports

As has already been demonstrated, some of the SVAT

models incorporate or connect closely to

hydrochemical transport models and most

groundwater models also have a scheme for trans-

port calculations.

The chemical state of natural waters is an envi-

ronmental issue of great importance. At present the

chemical state of surface waters is usually monitored

in one way or another. In future this must be comple-

mented by hydrochemical models, which allow pre-

diction of the chemical states with land use practicesas part of the input to soil, streams, rivers and lakes.

A beginning has been made for predicting the effect

of strong acid deposition on soil properties and

groundwater quality.

Acidification of soils occurs in large parts of Eu-

rope due to release of sulphur to the atmosphere in

local combustion. Since deposition rates of sulphur

in Europe are known it is possible to assess the ef-

fect of acidification on soils, using feasible models.

Eriksson (1998) developed the models SOILORG

and SOILMIN for simulation of the chemical deple-

tion of exchangeable cations in soils and the recov-

ery that would take place when decreasing sulphuremission occurs. The transport medium in soils is

soil water.

The range of models in this category is very large

and we are approaching the area of general transport

models, which is not really central to hydrological

modelling. As an example the SOILN8 (Eckersten et

al., 1994) model, now incorporated into the

CoupModel, presented earlier, is chosen.

SOILN simulates nitrogen flow in the soil and is

much used within agricultural and silvicultural ap-

plications. The nitrogen load to surface waters and

groundwater is often connected to land use and agri-

cultural practises. The model can simulate use of both

fertilisers and manure, from which plants take nitro-gen in various rates. Soil mineral-nitrogen pools re-

ceive nitrogen by mineralisation of litter and humus,

nitrification, fertilization and deposition, and loose

nitrogen by immobilization to litter, nitrification,

leaching, denitrification and plant uptake. All bio-

logical processes depend on soil water and tempera-

ture conditions.

Optimising water resource management

Optimisation models exists and are of importance in

areas where water is needed for many different, of-

ten conflicting, purposes. Optimisation can then,

hopefully, suggest arrangements for the most effi-

cient sustainable use of available water. The proce-

dure requires evaluation of the net yield of each use.

There may be difficulties to put prices on social ben-

efits and environmental properties. This is often a

political assessment.

Coupled hydrological and

meteorological models

Truly coupled hydrological and meteorological mod-

els do not yet exist. More and more advanced cou-

pling schemes are however presented. The idea is

that instead of taking measurements of precipitation,

this input data are generated by a mesoscale mete-

orological forecast model. In this way hydrological

forecasts would be improved and possible to ex-

tend further in time. The coupling should also work

in the opposite direction, i.e., give the meteorologi-

cal model information on, e.g., evapotranspiration,

which is highly dependent on available soil mois-

ture at the surface of the Earth. This would im-

prove precipitation forecasts, that would improveevapotranspiration forecasts and a positive feed-

back would result.

The main reason why this wonderful idea has not

already been implemented is that the hydrological and

the meteorological systems are acting on very different

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http://water.usgs.gov/nrp/gwsoftware/modflow.htmlhttp://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/model_db/mdb/soil-n.htmlhttp://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/model_db/mdb/soil-n.htmlhttp://water.usgs.gov/nrp/gwsoftware/modflow.html

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The World Climate Research Programme, WCRP has identified the Baltic basin as one of the keyareas for continental scale experiments. This is carried out under the BALTEX research programme(BALTEX, 1995). It is an interdisciplinary programme, with engagements from meteorologists, ocea-nographers and hydrologists, which aims at understanding the energy and water cycle of the Balticbasin. The hydrological modelling within BALTEX consists of the following four components:

Development of a full hydrological model for the BALTEX region

Use of hydrological models and observations to validate the hydrological components of the

meteorological models.

Development and intercomparison of hydrological models for selected river basins.

Development of a coupled atmosphere/ocean/land surface model.

Within the EU funded NEWBALTIC project amacroscale hydrological model has now been setup and used for an estimate of the overall waterbalance of the entire Baltic basin (Graham, 1998).The model is based on the HBV-96 hydrologicalmodel (Lindstrm et al., 1997). It uses a subdi-

vision of the drainage basin of the Baltic Seainto 25 sub-basins, ranging in size from 21 000to 144 000 km2 (Figure 11.6). The model coversthe land area, including lakes, but excludes thesea itself and is thus a model of river runoff fromland to the Baltic Sea.

Input to the hydrological model are daily syn-optic meteorological data on precipitation and airtemperature and output are daily simulatedevapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melt,soil moisture dynamics, runoff generation andriver flow. The model has been calibrated andvalidated against an existing database of monthlyrunoff (Bergstrm & Carlsson, 1994).

Figure 11.7 shows the overall simulated wa-ter balance of the terrestrial part of the Baltic ba-sin, including lakes. It illustrates that a concep-tual model captures the runoff very well. A closerlook at the main water balance components re-veals that snow and soil moisture have a dynam-ics of the same order of magnitude, if averagedover the entire basin, and thus are equally sig-nificant for the total Baltic runoff generation. Thepicture will, of course, look differently if sub-basins are analysed in the same way.

Although it can be argued that some of the variables in Figure 11.7 are model specific to somedegree, the application of a hydrological model to the continental-scale basin of the Baltic Sea has

resulted in the first consistent overall water balance compilation of the Baltic basin. It has alsoproved to be a very useful exercise for the harmonisation of climate models and hydrological models.This is the scale at which climate models and hydrological models can meet! Preliminary modelintercomparisons have revealed several of inconsistencies in the different approaches and have alsoforced climate modellers and hydrological modellers to jointly analyse the behaviour of their models.This experience will become increasingly important for the assessment of the performance of regionalclimate models, which are presently being developed for regional climate change studies.

CASE: MODELLINGTHEWATERBALANCEOFTHEBALTICBASIN

Figure 11.6. Subbasin boundaries used in theapplication of the HBV model to the Baltic basin (fromGraham, 1998).

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Figure 11.7. Simulated water balance of the Baltic basin by the HBV-96 model (from Graham, 1998).

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time and areal scales. Precipitation is typically gen-

erated over the North Sea, at least frontal precipita-

tion in the Baltic region, and knows nothing of the

catchments that direct runoff and act as hydrologi-

cal boundaries. A typical precipitation event occurs

on a time scale of hours. Evapotranspiration is con-

nected to soil water storage and is a process with a

time scale of months.

The driving force behind the recent developmentsin the area is the increased interest in simulations of

climate change. When normal forecast models only

run for a few days, the GCMs are running for tens or

hundreds of years. This puts the hydrological proc-

esses into focus since changes in the climate will

result in changes in the hydrological regime that will

in turn affect the climate. The feedback may be posi-

tive, enhancing climate change, or negative, coun-

teracting a global warming. The later case may, e.g.,

occur if increased precipitation and temperature

would result in increased evapotranspiration andcloud formation, thus decreasing the net radiation at

the Earths surface.