bajaj auto 4q fy 2013

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq)

Net Sales 4,746 4,651 2.0 5,413 (12.3)

EBITDA 837 921 (9.1) 1,012 (17.3)

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6 19.8 (217)bp 18.7 (107)bp

Adj. net profit 766 752 1.9 819 (6.5)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) reported lower-than-expected operating performance for4QFY2013, nevertheless, the bottom-line was slightly ahead of our estimatesdriven by higher other income and lower tax-rate. Going ahead, BJAUT isplanning to launch six new variants of Discover in FY2014 , four of which wouldbe in the price range of ` 40,000- ` 50,000. Further, the company also intends torevamp its entire three wheeler portfolio in FY2014. We believe that theaggressive product launch pipeline coupled with the revival in demand in thedomestic and exports markets will enable BJAUT to register a healthy volumeCAGR of ~10% over FY2013-15E. Nevertheless, we expect EBITDA margins toremain under pressure as the benefits of favorable rates on forex hedges will benegated by the changing volume-mix in favor of lower margin products. Webroadly retain our revenue and earnings estimates for the company forFY2014/15. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.

Lower-than-expected operating performance: For 4QFY2013, the top-line postedan in-line growth of 2% yoy (down 12.3% yoy) to ` 4,746cr, following a 3.5% yoy (13% qoq) drop in volumes to 981,242 units. The net average realization,however, improved strongly by 6.8% yoy (0.7% qoq) led by favorable foreignexchange rate on the exports front and also due to price hike in the exportmarkets (effective November 2012) to pass on the impact of reduction in exportincentives. The EBITDA margin declined 217bp yoy (107bp qoq) to 17.6%, belowour expectations of 18.6%, mainly due to adverse product-mix (higher share ofless than 125cc motorcycles in the product-mix) and increase in otherexpenditure. The adjusted net profit registered a marginal growth of 1.9% yoy (down 6.5% qoq) to ` 766cr. However, it was slightly ahead of our expectationsdriven by higher other income (74.6% yoy and 19.9% qoq) and lower tax-rate(at 25.9% as against 30.2% in 3QFY2013).

Outlook and valuation: At ` 1,834, BJAUT is trading at 13.4x FY2015E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of ` 2,056,valuing the company at 15x FY2015E earnings.

Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Net Sales 19,529 19,997 22,684 25,908

% chg 19.1 2.4 13.4 14.2

Net Profit 3,207 3,044 3,394 3,966

% chg 22.2 (5.1) 11.5 16.9

EBITDA (%) 19.4 18.2 18.0 18.5

EPS (`) 110.8 105.2 117.3 137.1

P/E (x) 16.5 17.4 15.6 13.4

P/BV (x) 8.8 7.0 5.6 4.5

RoE (%) 58.6 44.8 39.9 37.2

RoCE (%) 60.7 48.0 43.7 41.4

EV/Sales (x) 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.3 12.7 10.8 8.7


ACCUMULATECMP ` 1,834

Target Price ` 2,056

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code BJAUT@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 50.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.6

FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.6Indian Public / Others 15.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 4.2 26.2 20.5

Bajaj Auto (7.1) 16.5 69.6

Face Value ( ` )

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

10

20,286

6,187

BAJA.BO

Automobile

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap ( ` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

53,065

0.6

2,229/1,423

35,286

Net Debt ( ` cr) (6,918)

Yaresh Kothari

022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]

Bajaj Auto

Performance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Automobile

May 17, 2013

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013


Bajaj Auto | 4QFY2013 Result Update

May 17, 2013 2

Exhibit 1: Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)

Net sales 4,746 4,651 2.0 5,413 (12.3) 19,997 19,529 2.4

Consumption of RM 3,160 3,141 0.6 3,716 (15.0) 13,548 13,351 1.5(% of Sales) 66.6 67.5 68.6 67.7 68.4

Staff Costs 167 120 39.4 159 4.6 639 540 18.4

(% of Sales) 3.5 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.8

Purchases of TG 249 171 45.3 205 21.3 859 751 14.3

(% of Sales) 5.2 3.7 3.8 4.3 3.8

Other expenses 334 299 12.0 321 4.3 1,316 1,166 12.8

(% of Sales) 7.0 6.4 5.9 6.6 6.0

Total expenditure 3,910 3,731 4.8 4,401 (11.2) 16,362 15,809 3.5

Operating profit 837 921 (9.1) 1,012 (17.3) 3,635 3,720 (2.3)

OPM (%) 17.6 19.8 18.7 18.2 19.0

Interest 0 2 (90) 0 80.0 1 22 (98)

Depreciation 47 43 7.3 41 13.5 164 146 12.6

Other Income 244 139 74.6 203 19.9 795 608 30.8

PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 1,033 1,015 1.8 1,174 (12.0) 4,266 4,160 2.5

Extr. Income/(Expense) 0 (20) (100.0) 0 - 0 134 -

PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 1,033 1,035 (0.2) 1,174 (12.0) 4,266 4,026 6.0

(% of Sales) 21.8 22.3 21.7 21.3 20.6

Provision for Taxation 268 263 1.7 355 (24.6) 1,223 1,022 19.6

(% of PBT) 25.9 25.4 30.2 28.7 25.4

Reported PAT 766 772 (0.8) 819 (6.5) 3,044 3,004 1.3

Adj PAT 766 752 1.9 819 (6.5) 3,044 3,138 (3.0)

Adj. PATM 16.1 16.6 15.1 15.2 15.4

Equity capital (cr) 289.4 289.4 289.4 289.4 289.4

Reported EPS (`) 26.5 26.7 (0.8) 28.3 (6.5) 105.2 103.8 1.3

Adjusted EPS (`) 26.5 26.0 1.9 28.3 (6.5) 105.2 108.4 (3.0)


Exhibit 2: 4QFY2013 – Actual vs Angel estimates

Y/E March (` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)

Net Sales 4,746 4,784 (0.8)

EBITDA 837 890 (6.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 17.6 18.6 (97)bp

Adj. PAT 766 733 4.5


7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 3

Exhibit 3: Quarterly volume performance

(units) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)

Domestic 616,237 669,753 (8.0) 751,519 (18.0) 2,690,005 2,769,736 (2.9)

Exports 365,005 347,414 5.1 376,222 (3.0) 1,547,157 1,579,824 (2.1)Total volumes 981,242 1,017,167 (3.5) 1,127,741 (13.0) 4,237,162 4,349,560 (2.6)

Motorcycles

Domestic 556,147 616,516 (9.8) 687,351 (19.1) 2,463,863 2,566,757 (4.0)

Exports 303,537 280,732 8.1 298,912 1.5 1,293,231 1,267,648 2.0

Total motorcycles 859,684 897,248 (4.2) 986,263 (12.8) 3,757,094 3,834,405 (2.0)

% of total volumes 87.6 88.2 87.5 88.7 88.2

Three-wheelers

Domestic 60,090 53,237 12.9 64,168 (6.4) 226,142 202,979 11.4

Exports 61,468 66,682 (7.8) 77,310 (20.5) 253,926 312,176 (18.7)

Total three-

wheelers 121,558 119,919 1.4 141,478 (14.1) 480,068 515,155 (6.8)% of total volumes 12.4 11.8 12.5 11.3 11.8


Modest top-line growth of 2% yoy: For 4QFY2013, the top-line posted an in-line

growth of 2% yoy (down 12.3% yoy) to ` 4,746cr, following a 3.5% yoy (13% qoq)

drop in volumes to 981,242 units. The net average realization, however, improved

strongly by 6.8% yoy led by favorable foreign exchange rate on the exports front

and also due to price hike in the export markets (effective November 2012) to pass

on the impact of reduction in export incentives. On a sequential basis though, net

average realization posted a marginal growth of 0.7% as export net average

realization declined by 7.9% largely driven by inferior product-mix. While, thedomestic revenues declined 3.3% yoy (13.2% qoq) led by 8% yoy (18% qoq)

decline in volumes; export revenues surged 18.2% yoy led a 5.1% yoy growth in

volumes and a 12.5% yoy growth in net average realization.

During the quarter, the domestic motorcycle volumes (down 9.8% yoy) remained

under pressure on account of subdued consumer sentiments and increasing

competition from Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India (HMSI). However

domestic three-wheeler segment posted a strong growth of 12.9% yoy benefitting

from the opening up of new permits in Delhi, Karnataka and Jaipur. Three-

wheeler export volumes for the quarter remained sluggish (down 7.8% yoy) largely

due to the impact of the hike in import duty in Sri Lanka.

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 4

Exhibit 4: Volumes decline due to demand slowdown


Exhibit 5: Strong growth in net average realization


Exhibit 6: Revenue mix


Exhibit 7: Domestic market share trend

Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research

EBITDA margin at 17.6%: On the operating front, the EBITDA margin declined

217bp yoy (107bp qoq) to 17.6%, below our expectations of 18.6%, mainly due to

adverse product-mix and increase in other expenditure. A higher share of <125cc

motorcycles in the total volumes (~64% vs ~61% in 4QFY2012) impacted the

operating performance during the quarter. Consequently, operating profit declined

9.1% yoy (17.3% qoq) to ` 837cr.

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(%)(`) Net average realisation yoy change (%)

73.862.8 65.3 64.7 70.7

63.1 65.4 67.1 66.4

26.237.2 34.7 35.3 29.3

36.9 34.6 32.9 33.6

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(%) Domestic Export

38.6 38.3 39.9 38.940.9 40.3 41.0 42.3 44.1

26.1 25.3 26.9 25.2 24.5 23.525.7 26.0

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19.9 19.6 20.2 18.9 17.9 17.6 18.5 19.116.3

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(%) Three-wheelers Motorcycles Total Two-wheelers

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 5

Exhibit 8: EBITDA margins under pressure


Exhibit 9: High other income boosts bottom-line


Net profit at `766cr: The adjusted net profit registered a marginal growth of 1.9%yoy (down 6.5% qoq) to ` 766cr. However, it was slightly ahead of our expectations

driven by higher other income (74.6% yoy and 19.9% qoq) and lower tax-rate (at

25.9% as against 30.2% in 3QFY2013).

19.4 17.8 18.8 19.7 19.8 17.9 18.4 18.7 17.6

73.9 76.4 75.4 73.6 71.2 74.4 74.1 72.4 71.8

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(%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales

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(%)( ` cr) Net p ro fit (LHS) Net p rofit ma rgin (RHS)

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 6

Conference call – Key highlights

The Management expects demand pressures to persist in 1QFY2014 in the

domestic markets and expects a flat to negative volume growth for the quarter.

While the retail demand in the month of May has been strong, the company

believes that it could be on account of the marriage season in North India.

The Management has guided for a 10-12% growth in the three-wheeler

segment and expects the growth to be driven by issue of new permits. The new

launches that are lined up in FY2014 are also expected to drive growth.

For FY2014, the company expects the export volumes to increase by 10-12%

led by growth in Africa and Latin America. However, the long term growth

from the export markets is expected to remain in the range of 15-18%. This

would be led by leveraging upon its association with Kawasaki (to enter the

South East Asian markets) and KTM. The company also intends to enter newercountries like Brazil going ahead.

On the capacity front, the management is planning to increase the

three-wheeler capacity in FY2014 to 60,000/month from the current levels of

50,000/month.

The net average USD/INR rate for the exports realization stood at ` 49.5 in

4QFY2013. The company expects the export realization to be at ` 54 and ` 55

per Dollar in FY2014 and FY2015 respectively as against ` 49.5 per Dollar in

FY2013. BJAUT has hedged about US$1,200mn of exports exposure

(US$800mn pertaining to FY2014) in the range of ` 53- ` 60/ Dollar.

The company has increased the prices in export markets to negate the impact

of cut in DEPB rates in October 2012. DEPB rates were lowered to 2.5% from

5.5% earlier. Of this reduction, 70-75% has been covered through price hikes.

The company has taken a price hike in the range of ` 500- ` 1,000/ vehicle

effective from April 2013.

Inventory at the dealer end remains at around five and half weeks.

BJAUT plans to spend ` 500cr in capex over the next two years.

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 7

Investment arguments

Strong focus on Discover and Pulsar to improve market share: BJAUT has

witnessed moderation in demand in the domestic market recently due to

increased competitive activity and slowdown in the industry. However, BJAUT

continues to focus on its core brands, Discover and Pulsar. The successful

launches of Discover 100T , 125ST and Pulsar 200NS in FY2013 enabled the

company to arrest its market share losses. BJAUT lost ~100bp in market share

in the domestic motorcycle segment and the share stood at 24.4%. Going

ahead, the company intends to launch six new variants of Discover in FY2014,

four of which would be in the mass market category. We believe the new

launches will enable the company to regain the momentum in the domestic

markets and will lead to a volume CAGR of ~10% over FY2013-15E.

Three-wheelers registering healthy growth: BJAUT has a strong presence in the

three-wheeler market, with an overall market share (including exports) of

~57%. The company tops the passenger auto-rickshaw segment (~65%

market share), which accounts for ~85% of the three-wheeler market. The

three-wheeler segment fetches higher margins than the company ’s

two-wheeler business. Although competition in the domestic three-wheeler

space is intense, strong export volume growth has helped BJAUT to post a

~15% volume CAGR over FY2009-13E. Going ahead, the company plans to

revamp its entire three-wheeler portfolio in FY2014 which should help the

company sustain the growth.

Growth potential in export markets: BJAUT registered a strong exports CAGR

of ~20% during FY2009-13, aided by a ~20% CAGR in two-wheeler exports

and a ~16% CAGR in three-wheeler exports. While in FY2013, the exports

growth has remained muted due to import duty hike in Sri Lanka and

disruptions in Egypt, we expect volumes to recover in FY2014. We estimate the

company to register a ~12% volume CAGR in exports over FY2013-15E.

Further, favorable currency movement is likely to boost export revenues in

FY2014. BJAUT has hedged around two-third of its FY2014 exports at a

favorable USD-INR rate of ` 54 and above.

Outlook and valuation

We broadly retain our revenue and earnings estimates for the company forFY2014/15. BJAUT is planning to launch six new variants of Discover in FY2014,

four of which would be in the price range of ` 40,000- ` 50,000. Further, the

company also intends to revamp its entire three wheeler portfolio in FY2014. We

believe that the aggressive product launch pipeline coupled with the revival in

demand in the domestic and exports markets will enable BJAUT to register a

healthy volume CAGR of ~10% over FY2013-15E. Nevertheless, we expect

EBITDA margins to remain under pressure as the benefits of favorable rates on

forex hedges will be negated by the changing volume-mix in favor of lower margin

products.

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 8

Exhibit 10: Change in estimates

Y/E March Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chg

FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E

Net Sales (` cr) 22,552 25,498 22,684 25,908 0.6 1.6OPM (%) 18.6 18.6 18.0 18.5 (59)bp (13)bp

EPS (`) 117.9 134.3 117.3 137.1 (0.5) 2.1


At ` 1,834, BJAUT is trading at 13.4x FY2015E earnings. We maintain our

Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `2,056, valuing the company

at 15x FY2015E earnings.

Exhibit 11: Key assumptions - Volumes

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Total motorcycles 2,506,865 3,387,043 3,834,405 3,757,094 4,056,590 4,499,821

Domestic 1,781,768 2,414,606 2,566,757 2,463,863 2,624,404 2,886,845

< 125cc 928,882 1,159,190 1,128,410 1,244,938 1,344,533 1,478,986

>125cc 852,886 1,255,416 1,438,347 1,218,925 1,279,871 1,407,858

Exports 725,097 972,437 1,267,648 1,293,231 1,432,185 1,612,976

< 125cc 533,126 639,463 832,428 811,668 892,835 1,008,903

>125cc 191,971 332,974 435,220 481,563 539,351 604,073

Total three-wheelers 340,959 436,884 515,155 480,057 527,835 581,061

Passenger 164,502 201,246 195,141 223,287 245,616 265,265

Goods 11,548 4,357 7,838 2,844 2,901 2,959

Exports 164,909 231,281 312,176 253,926 279,319 312,837Total scooters 4,852 27 -

Total volumes 2,852,676 3,823,954 4,349,560 4,237,151 4,584,425 5,080,881

% chg 30.0 34.0 13.7 (2.6) 8.2 10.8


Exhibit 12: Angel vs consensus forecast

Angel estimates Consensus Variation (%)

FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Total op. income (` cr) 22,684 25,908 23,296 26,393 (2.6) (1.8)

EPS ( ` ) 117.3 137.1 126.5 142.3 (7.3) (3.7)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 9

Exhibit 13: One-year forward P/E band


Exhibit 14: One-year forward P/E chart


Exhibit 15: BJAUT – Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E


Exhibit 16: Two-wheeler cos’ stock performance vs Sensex


Exhibit 17: Automobile - Recommendation summary

Company Reco.CMP

(`)Tgt. price

(`)Upside

(%)

P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY13-15E EPS

FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E CAGR (%)

Ashok Leyland Buy 23 27 15.2 22.2 10.4 6.9 4.9 6.2 12.5 102.9

Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,834 2,056 12.1 15.6 13.4 10.8 8.7 39.9 37.2 14.2

Hero MotoCorp Accumulate 1,686 1,819 7.9 15.3 12.0 7.9 7.1 39.8 40.7 14.9

Maruti Suzuki Accumulate 1,709 1,847 8.1 15.9 13.9 8.0 6.9 16.2 16.0 24.7

Mahindra &Mahindra

Neutral 986 - 2.1 16.5 14.4 9.2 7.6 22.3 21.6 11.5

Tata Motors Accumulate 303 324 6.9 9.3 7.7 4.3 3.6 23.4 23.3 17.6

TVS Motor Neutral 39 - 3.9 7.8 6.7 2.9 2.2 18.1 18.5 15.3


Company background

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) is the second largest 2W manufacturer in the country (~25%

market share) and a market leader in the 3W segment (~55% market share).

BJAUT has three manufacturing facilities in India, located at Waluj, Chakan and

Pantnagar, with a total installed capacity (2W - 4.5mn and 3W - 0.6mn) of 5.1mn

units. BJAUT also happens to be one of India's largest auto exporters, with exportsforming ~35% of revenue in FY2013. The two dominant brands, Discover and

Pulsar accounts for ~65% of the company’s motorcycle volumes.

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2

O c

t - 1 2

A p r - 1 3

TVSL HMCL BJAUT Sensex

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 10

Profit and loss statement (Standalone)


Total operating income 11,921 16,398 19,529 19,997 22,684 25,908

% chg 35.3 37.6 19.1 2.4 13.4 14.2Total expenditure 9,345 13,218 15,740 16,362 18,597 21,119

Net raw material costs 8,070 11,798 14,103 14,407 16,414 18,744

Other mfg costs 227 243 258 331 368 383

Employee expenses 399 477 515 639 726 829

Other 648 700 864 985 1,089 1,163

EBITDA 2,576 3,181 3,789 3,635 4,087 4,789

% chg 121.7 23.5 19.1 (4.1) 12.4 17.2

(% of total op. income) 21.6 19.4 19.4 18.2 18.0 18.5

Depreciation & amortization 136 123 146 164 179 190

EBIT 2,439 3,058 3,643 3,471 3,908 4,599

% chg 136.4 25.3 19.1 (4.7) 12.6 17.7


Interest and other charges 6 2 22 1 1 1

Other income 123 577 608 795 873 988

Recurring PBT 2,556 3,633 4,229 4,266 4,780 5,586

% chg 125.6 42.1 16.4 0.9 12.1 16.9

Extraordinary income/(exp.) (162) 725 (134) - - -

Tax 705 1,008 1,022 1,223 1,386 1,620

(% of PBT) 29.4 23.1 25.0 28.7 29.0 29.0

PAT (reported) 1,690 3,349 3,073 3,044 3,394 3,966

ADJ. PAT 1,851 2,625 3,207 3,044 3,394 3,966

% chg 121.8 41.8 22.2 (5.1) 11.5 16.9


Basic EPS (`) 64.0 90.7 110.8 105.2 117.3 137.1

Adj. EPS (`) 64.0 90.7 110.8 105.2 117.3 137.1

% chg 121.8 41.8 22.2 (5.1) 11.5 16.9

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 11

Balance sheet statement (Standalone)


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity share capital 145 289 289 289 289 289Reserves & surplus 2,784 4,621 5,752 7,272 9,143 11,586

Shareholders’ funds 2,928 4,910 6,041 7,562 9,433 11,876

Total loans 1,339 292 97 71 71 71

Deferred tax liability 2 30 48 115 115 115

Other long term liabilities - 194 157 122 122 122

Long term provisions - 125 112 135 135 135

Total Liabilities 4,269 5,550 6,456 8,005 9,876 12,319

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross block 3,379 3,395 3,396 3,814 4,059 4,308

Less: Acc. depreciation 1,900 1,912 1,914 2,078 2,257 2,448

Net Block 1,480 1,483 1,482 1,736 1,801 1,861

Capital work-in-progress 42 70 42 22 27 28

Investments 4,022 4,722 4,883 6,430 8,098 10,101

Long term loans and adv. - 227 580 462 462 462

Other noncurrent assets - 402 1 1 1 1

Current assets 1,584 2,344 4,094 3,487 3,975 4,557

Cash 101 229 1,654 559 1,017 1,312

Loans & advances 797 992 1,043 1,312 1,359 1,409

Other 686 1,123 1,397 1,616 1,599 1,837

Current liabilities 2,858 3,698 4,625 4,134 4,490 4,692

Net current assets (1,274) (1,353) (532) (647) (514) (134)

Misc. exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 4,269 5,550 6,456 8,005 9,876 12,319

Note: Cash and bank balance includes term deposits with banks

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 12

Cash flow statement (Standalone)


Profit before tax 2,411 4,348 4,026 4,266 4,780 5,586

Depreciation 136 123 146 164 179 190Change in working capital 868 (822) 80 (980) 326 (86)

Direct taxes paid (700) (974) (1,148) (1,223) (1,386) (1,620)

Less: Others 22 (1,061) (143) 172 - -

Cash Flow from Operations 2,737 1,614 2,960 2,400 3,899 4,071

(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets 9 39 23 (398) (250) (250)

(Inc.)/Dec. in investments (2,068) (554) (86) (1,548) (1,668) (2,003)

Others (104) (108) (383) - - -

Cash Flow from Investing (2,164) (623) (445) (1,946) (1,918) (2,253)

Issue of equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (236) 145 (158) (26) - -

Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) (317) (578) (1,154) (1,523) (1,523) (1,523)

Others (56) (429) (252) - - -

Cash Flow from Financing (609) (862) (1,564) (1 ,549) (1,523) (1,523)

Inc./(Dec.) in cash (35) 129 950 (1,095) 459 294

Opening Cash balances 137 100 229 1,654 559 1,017

Closing Cash balances 100 229 1,179 559 1,017 1,312

Note: Closing Cash balances excludes term deposits with banks

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



May 17, 2013 13

Key ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 28.7 20.2 16.5 17.4 15.6 13.4P/CEPS 26.7 19.3 15.8 16.5 14.9 12.8

P/BV 18.1 10.8 8.8 7.0 5.6 4.5

Dividend yield (%) 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

EV/Sales 4.2 3.0 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.6

EV/EBITDA 19.5 15.2 12.3 12.7 10.8 8.7

EV / Total Assets 11.8 8.7 7.2 5.8 4.5 3.4

Per Share Data (`)

EPS (Basic) 64.0 90.7 110.8 105.2 117.3 137.1

EPS (fully diluted) 64.0 90.7 110.8 105.2 117.3 137.1

Cash EPS 68.7 94.9 115.9 110.8 123.5 143.6

DPS 40.0 40.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0

Book Value 101.2 169.7 208.8 261.3 326.0 410.4

Dupont Analysis

EBIT margin 20.5 18.6 18.7 17.4 17.2 17.8

Tax retention ratio 70.6 76.9 75.0 71.3 71.0 71.0

Asset turnover (x) 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.6

ROIC (Post-tax) 46.1 49.5 54.0 40.4 34.0 32.9

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 0.3 0.2 8.6 0.5 0.7 0.7

Leverage (x) (1.0) (0.9) (1.1) (0.9) (1.0) (1.0)

Operating ROE 2.5 2.7 5.6 3.9 2.1 2.2

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 63.3 62.3 60.7 48.0 43.7 41.4

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 69.5 65.8 74.0 57.6 48.1 46.4

ROE 77.2 67.0 58.6 44.8 39.9 37.2

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.5 4.8 5.8 5.5 5.8 6.2

Inventory / Sales (days) 12 11 11 12 11 11

Receivables (days) 9 7 7 11 11 9

Payables (days) 46 46 44 44 40 38

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (25) (33) (35) (31) (22) (21)

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (1.0) (0.9) (1.1) (0.9) (1.0) (1.0)

Net debt to EBITDA (1.1) (1.5) (1.7) (1.9) (2.2) (2.4)

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 407.9 1,809.4 163.8 6,428.4 5,483.6 6,453.0

7/30/2019 Bajaj Auto 4Q FY 2013



Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Bajaj Auto

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