Balaban Valley Project: Improving the Quality of Life in Rural Area in Turkey

Ali Gökmen1,3, Sinan Kayalıgil2, Gerhard-W. Weber3, İnci Gökmen1, Mehmet Ecevit4, Aşkın

Sürmeli 5, Taylan Bali6, Yıldız Ecevit4, Haluk Gökmen7, Dorien J. DeTombe8

1 Department of Chemistry, 2 Department of Industrial Engineering, 3Institute of Applied Mathematics, 4 Department of Sociology, Middle East Technical University, 06531 Ankara, TURKEY

5 Sürdürülebilir Tarım ve Çiftçi Yardımlaşma Derneği, Sümer S. 10/16, Ankara, TURKEY 6 Ankara University, Political Sciences Faculty, Ankara, TURKEY

7 Electrical Engineer, 30. Cadde 26/29 Karakusunlar, Ankara, TURKEY 8 Chair Operational Research Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems

P.O. Box 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract

Over 30 % of the Turkish population live in small villages, often under poor

conditions. In these regions the main source of income is agriculture. The recent

globalization trend in the world makes the sustainable living conditions in rural areas

very difficult. There are high cost of fertilizers and pesticides used in conventional

agriculture, high fuel costs, there is the uncertainty in decision making on the type of

crop to be cultivated for the coming years, the limited opportunities for education of

children, and the unequal and unbearable workload for men and especially for

women. Some of the difficulties are due to recent policies of IMF and World Trade

Organization who impose on governments to lift subsidies on agriculture. Turkey,

once considered as one of the agriculturally self-sustaining countries of the world,

now imports even some of the major agricultural products like grain, beans and oil

producing crops.

All these issues are closely related to each other, and can be seen as an integrated

interdisciplinary complex societal problem. Before handling a complex problem, one

has to make a thorough analysis of all aspects of the problem. In the proposed

project, this will be realized by an integrated approach based on the COMPRAM

method. Mathematical modelling, data mining and modern computer devices will be

used during different phases of the study.

Social scientists, concerned about these problems, carried out studies for a long

time, however, the results could not be applied. Now a real life project is proposed:

the Balaban Valley Project for improving the quality of life in a rural area. The

Balaban Valley Project is located 60 km east of Ankara where four villages are

selected with a total population of about 1300 people.

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The problems of the rural area will be handled systematically by a team of experts

and students from universities, various state organizations, companies and

stakeholders from the villagers living in the area, government organizations and

NGO’s. The decisions made will be implemented and the results will be assessed.

The project will be handled dynamically, for instance, in a sense of learning, whereby

any changes will be made when needed. In the course of the project, communication

and interdisciplinarity, mutual respect, partnership and, finally, hope will play a

significant role throughout.

An improvement of the living conditions in the rural areas is considered to be the

basic interest not only of the local people, but also of entire Turkey, and even of

Europe concerning its process of integration. In the last 50 years the settlement

structure in Turkey has undergone a major change from rural areas to large cities.

Due to the need of cheap labor in Europe, poorly equipped people from rural areas

were accepted as workers from Turkey and other developing countries. The

migration of people, starting from 1960’s, from rural areas to large cities in their

homeland Turkey and to European countries caused problems. Giving the people in

rural areas a chance to improve their living conditions in their own area prevents the

need of immigration to large cities, where the newcomers often have a hard time to

meet the complex demands needed for adapting adequately.

1. Introduction

Rural establisments in Anatolia is a very old traditional way of living. Anatolia is the

land where agriculture started first in human history and various animals were

domesticated first in this land 10,000 years ago (1). In general, the living styles of

people in rural areas do not burden environment as they do in the cities. The village

life is a part of ecological system and due to low density population in these

settlements the life is sustainable. But now rapidly changing world toward

globalization and due to the trends to subsidize agriculture heavily in the western

countries (USA, EU), while applying pressure on Turkey to lift all subsidies, the life

for people living in Anatolia has become very difficult. Migration from villages to the

cities continuous for at least 50 years in Turkey and created many problems in

rapidly expanding cities that could not compensate this growth rate. The migration

also take place from Turkey to European countries since 1960’s. People who

originally come from rural areas of developing countries to these western countries

with different life styles, and cultures brought adoptation problems. Moreover, our

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living planet is under the threat of very rapidly growing energy consumption and its

environmental burden. The United Nations (UN) organized several summits and

expected to make the living more sustainable and so that the future generations can

have a better chance of survival.

United Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) met in

Johannesburg on 2002 (2) to take steps on the issue of sustainability. Some of the

themes of the meeting were related to sustainable agriculture, development and

implementation of renewable energy resources, and education. According to WSSD:

"Agriculture plays a crucial role in addressing the needs of a growing global

population, and is inextricably linked to poverty eradication, especially in developing

countries. Enhancing the role of women at all levels and in all aspects of rural

development, agriculture, nutrition and food security is imperative. Sustainable

agriculture and rural development are essential to the implementation of an

integrated approach to increasing food production and enhancing food security and

food safety in an environmentally sustainable way."

To further international coordination, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the

United Nations (FAO) has initiated and provides the secretariat for the UN System

Network on Rural Development and Food Security. In addition, FAO helped launch,

at the WSSD, a Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development (SARD) initiative

with the participation of over 120 government and civil society representatives. Major

adjustments are needed in agricultural, environmental and macroeconomic policy, at

both national and international levels, in developed as well as developing countries,

to create the conditions for SARD. FAO defines SARD as a process which meets the

following criteria: ensures that the basic nutritional requirements of present and

future generations, qualitatively and quantitatively, are met while providing number

of other agricultural products; provides durable employment, sufficient income, and

decent living and working conditions for all those engaged in agricultural production;

maintains and, where possible, enhances the productive capacity of the natural

resource base as a whole, and the regenerative capacity of renewable resources,

without disrupting the functioning of basic ecological cycles and natural balances,

destroying the socio-cultural attributes of rural communities, or causing

contamination of the environment; reduces the vulnerability of the agricultural sector

to adverse natural and socio-economic factors and other risks, and strengthens self-

reliance (3,4).

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Turkey participated WSSD and proposed Agenda 21 on agriculture and energy

issues. In Turkey the coordinating or other relevant bodies on agriculture are the

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Services; the General Directorate of State Hydraulic

Works (DSİ); and the General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS). The agriculture

sector is working towards the integration of environmental considerations. Organic

agricultural works are agricultural activities, where no chemical pesticides or

fertilizers are used, within the framework of the “Regulation on the Production of

Vegetable and Animal Products with Ecological Methods”. The regulation came into

force in 1994 (5). The importance of such works has to be emphasized as they make

major contributions for preventing chemical pollution of the soil. Within the scope of

its services, GDRS has initiated the necessary work in order to determine potential

puddle areas countrywide in order to irrigate potential fields in Turkey. Strategies are

to be developed in order to undertake irrigated agriculture, which is technologically

supported.

Some of the principles of Turkey’s energy policies in Agenda 21 are as follows:

developing existing sources while accelerating research studies on new sources;

adding new and renewable energy resources to the energy cycle as soon as

possible; implementing “Energy Saving Program” for energy efficiency, preventing

extravagance consumption and to minimize losses in production, transmission and

consumption of all energy sources; protecting the environment and public health in

the process of meeting the energy requirements and controlling emissions originating

from energy production and consumption; programming Research and Development

studies (R&D) in the energy field in a way to meet the requirements. To achieve

sustainable energy development and efficiency, the Government considers: the

development and use of safe technologies; promotion of R&D relating to appropriate

methodologies; public awareness-raising; product labeling; and environmental impact

assessment (EIA) as the most important means.

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The purpose of this work is to make life sustainable in a rural area, particularly,

several villages selected in the Balaban Valley located in Central Anatolia,

boardering Ankara and Kırıkkale provinces. Balaban valley takes its name from a

small stream which joins Kızılırmak, the longest river of Turkey. Kızılırmak is one of

the most important water-ways in Turkey that hosted many civilizations. Hittites, for

example, settled in the area where Kızılırmak defined the southern borders of this

civilization 4000 years ago.

2. Balaban Valley

Balaban Valley extends nearly 50 km in northwest-southeast direction, from the town

of Kılıçlar (in the city of Kırıkkale) near Ankara-Samsun highway on the northern side

to Bala (in the city of Ankara) near Ankara-Konya highway on the southern side.

Different ecological systems exist along the Balaban Valley. Balaban stream flows

along the valley which than joins Kızılırmak River. There are at least 12 villages in

the valley. At the eastern side of the valley there are hills rising several hundreds of

meter. After a major flood in 1956 the location of one of the villages in the valley,

Hisarköy, has been changed to a nearby safer site on the south. Recently this region

has been forested by Ministry of Forestery. The western side of Balaban Valley was

surrounded by hills and mountains reaching elevations of about 1000 meters from

the base of the valley. This region is poor in naturally grown trees but scarcely

covered by perennial plants and trees like oak and pine.

Four villages were selected along the Balaban valley for this study. Hisarköy, has a

population of about 300 people. Nearby village Edige is the least crowded of all four

villages with a population of 100 people during the winter and getting more crowded

during the summer months. Most of the villagers of Edige have moved to a nearby

town, Elmadağ, which has a population of 23.000. The third village Kuşcali is located

on the valley, south of the Balaban stream with a population of about 300. The

largest of the four villages Karacahasan is at the western side of the valley with a

population of 600. All four villages are closely located to each other within a distance

of 5-10 km.

2.1. A Social Study in Hisarköy

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A social study was carried out in Hisarköy by one of the NGOs in Ankara, Insanlık

Güneşi Vakfi, IGV, as a rural development project which started in 2001 and ended in

February 2004. The aim of this social project was to improve the quality of life in

Hisarköy. One of the objectives of this project was to improve the consciousness of

the people to solve their own problems. A previously established cooperative was

activated and 50 members of this cooperative applied to get 4 cows each from the

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Services. Upon request of the village women, some

courses were organized like pickle making, vegetable conservation, animal

husbandry. Some of the activities organized by IGV were activation of the abundoned

primary school up to fifth grade with the financial support of the Canadian Embassy,

establishment of a public library, routine eye and dental check-ups, introduction of

broccoli production for the first time in the Kırıkkale province, organization of painting

courses for children and the exhibition of selected paints in Ankara, the redesign of

Hisarköy cemetery.

The villagers of Hisarköy were interviewed by the members of IGV, recently for their

opinion about the Project. The Project was mostly successful; but some of the

applications yielded various unforeseen implications. Broccoli production was

proposed by IGV in Hisarköy two years ago. Experts from Ankara University helped

for the production of this new crop. At the beginning, only the Headman (elected

administrator of villages) planted broccoli in his field, but the rest of the villagers were

hesitant to replace their conventional vegetable production (onion, tomato, green

pepper, leek, sugar beat). Experience of high income obtained from the initial

broccoli production encouraged many others in the village to produce broccoli in their

fields for the following years. Since broccoli was not well known in the nearby city of

Kırıkkale and villagers were not used to market such a valuable crop, they could not

sell their produce and were forced to destroy their crop. However, those who have

contacts in Ankara were able to sell their crop and made good profit.

The reopening of the closed primary school in Hisarköy with the support of the

Canadian Embassy relieved students between the ages of 7 to 12, commuting 12

kilometers every day to nearby town of Kılıçlar. Although the people of Hisarköy

were very enthusiastic about reopening of the school in their village, some

disadvantages of cancelling of the commuting system for the students of 6-8 grades

emerged in the following years. The families started to send their children to a

boarding school in Elmadağ, a major town 15 km to Hisarköy, after their graduation

from the primary school (5 grades) and cancellation of the bus commuting system.

The success of the children at an age of about 12 declined suddenly due to their

adaptation problems in the boarding school. Although the families desired very much

for their children to receive a good education, they are rather helpless due to the

current situation and many consider withdrawing their children from education.

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The women in Hisarköy also expressed their opinions very enthusiastically about the

improvement of their relation with the men in the village. It is not typical for Anatolian

villages in Turkey for men and women to meet together in the same public places

except ceramonial occasions such as weddings, deaths, official and religious

festivals. Men usually meet in coffee houses, and women do not have similar

common locations. However, after three years of contact of members of IGV with the

people of Hisarköy, the segregation of women from public life considerably

diminished. Improved confidence of women eased their relations with men. One of

the village women was elected as the representative of women in the village and she

started to organize all public relations in the village now. She and another village

woman participated a competition organized by the Agricultural Department about

the best agricultural practice among women in the villages of Kırıkkale. They got the

first and second places in this competition. Later they shared the first prize in the

competition held for the mid-Anatolian region. The motivation of the whole village is

at its highest level now.

The three years of extraordinary experience of IGV in Hisarköy revealed that the

primary concern of this village was manifested itself in several fields; better education

of their children, getting higher returns from their produce, taking more mature

decisions about their crops, having better health care, accessing to an enriched

information for their everyday life.

3. An Approach to Handle Complex Sociatal Problem in Balaban Valley

3.1 Problem Definition

The primary aim of this project is to increase the quality of life of villagers; the

developmental changes are expected to be sustainable. We emphasize sustainable

rural development as the critical component, and in essence the core societal issue.

As quality of life is multifaceted and continued economic welfare can be realized

through integrated activities that should by no means hinder one another; thus

sustainability is a must.

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The mechanisms that have lead to low quality of life and poor conditions for

development are complicated body of interactions. Low value added throughout

activities (problems specific to the capacity, means and conditions of using

household/family labour) in the area is the main cause of low quality of life. Among

others, basically three ways can lead to higher value added activities: (i) with more

knowledge input, (ii) multiplicity in generating value that cross feed one another, and

(iii) a participatory scheme that takes advantage of synergy in joining efforts. This

problem is societal, as it pertains to human activity, community behavior and social

organization.

The resources of the Project area (social, economic, cultural, ecological capital) will

be used in its maximum comprehensive scope and they will be in coordination and in

balance with the external inputs. The changes that are expected to be initiated will

involve a wide range of social, economic, cultural, psychological issues demanding

the analysis of the prevailing basic structural features of life in the valley.

Similar to many developing societies, the agrarian relations in Turkey face important

problems in terms of their conditions of survival within the developing tendencies of

capitalistic changes that are undergoing. The commercialization of the inputs that are

needed for production and consumption and the integration of the villagers/producers

to the extending markets through producing agricultural products and consuming

industrial products force villagers to sustain their life more and more through the

means of commercial relations and extending cash economy. These tendencies have

reciprocal impact on the social and cultural life of the villagers. Those who are

successful in maintaining themselves in rural areas, that is, those resisting to the

forces of migration to cities maintain their life mostly through means of increased

workload and extended labour time. Women and children are mostly observed to be

the disfavoring groups in this resistance to prevailing hardship. The Project thus is

sensitive to take into account the gender relations specific to changing and

developing agrarian relations in the valley. It is well-known in rural development

projects that however development is achieved, its sustainablity is mostly in question

and women’s disfavoring position is rarely taken into account.

The interdisciplinary character of the Project team is considered to be an important

asset in defining and structuring the problem and investigating it, reaching policy

conclusions and implementing them.

3.2. How to Measure the Power of a Community

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In the course of the project, the determinants of the power of any human community

will be discussed and a community power index will be developed. Power is defined,

in general, as the rate of energy flow. Alfred Lotka (6) presented an energy

codification of Darwin’s principle of natural selection - the principle of maximum

power selection. Systems develop variety as choices and the system retained by

natural selection is the one that develops more power and channels this energy into

adaptive mechanisms (7). Since nature favors systems that maximize power, the

value of a society could thus be evaluated in terms of power it would generate. For

the specific purpose of our Project, it could be delimited as the capacity to improve

the quality of human labor and the nature and the chances of using it purposively for

the sustainable welfare of the human kind and the protection of the nature.

Factors forming the power of a community are numerous and some can be harder to

evaluate. At this point, one could take two opposite concepts whose interaction

constitutes a power base of a system, namely vulnerability and resilience. The former

is defined as "open (ness) to attack or damage" and obviously reduces the power of

a system; and the latter defined as "the ability to recover from or adjust easily to

misfortune or change" considered as a remedy for the former and affects the overall

power positively (8). One formidable problem that remains to be solved is the

determination of the weights corresponding to each factor in the composition of the

index.

One set of primary factors contributing to the vulnerability of a community can be

classified as follows: inner tensions (conflicts among individuals, groups, classes,

organs of the community), outer tensions (conflicts with nature, with other

communities), and temporal tensions (inertia to adapt oneself, lack of innovation). To

these, one should add a factor that can aggravate any one of them, namely lack of

creativity and diversification and the ensuing dependence. For the development of a

community to be sustainable, wealth and capability building must not put any unequal

strain over natural and social bases of this development. In other words, too much or

too quick development can create vulnerability. This fact is called overdevelopment

by Caldwell (9).

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On the other hand, the resilience of a system is accumulated energy (and/or value

created by the purposive act of labor in case of human communities) and functions

and capabilities developed by the system. Wealth of a community is the total stock of

assets a community owns and/or controls. Originally they consist of natural deposits

of energy (non-renewable and renewable resources) including water, minerals, flora,

fauna and human population, as well as of man-made ones (physical capital and

inventories) and deposits of value.

The above paragraphs enumerate the main classes of factors contributing positively

or negatively to the power of any community but they should be further scrutinized

and detailed in order to obtain the elements of a multidimensional power index based

on capabilities/vulnerabilities. This, and the very construction of the power index for

the Balaban Valley villages will be the subject of a future study.

3.3. Social and Economic Value Creation Assuring continual knowledge and financial inputs through governmental or other

incentives and marketability, timing and social approval are critical in success. There

must be a learning component embedded in any kind of change proposal. Learning is

not limited to educating the inhabitants. Villagers have to be encouraged with some

guidance to think over and experiment with small scale pilot applications (plant oil

production, green house farming, and organic farming).

We define sustainablity as maintaining systems that are ecologically sound,

economically and socially viable; and that, in the overall balance, do not exploit or

pollute the existing nature. To that effect setting up cycles is found critical. Cycles will

constitute organized activities that generate either concrete or abstract outcomes

capable of reproducing their requirements in time. We have identified the following

cycles that are worth considering:

1. Animal waste – biogas – fertilizer cycle,

2. Rapeseed – biodiesel – animal feed cycle,

3. Irrigation – land cultivation - bioenergy cycle,

4. Permaculture based cycle.

More detailed accounts on these potential cycles will be given below. The character

of these cycles will be studied with the help of - but not restricted by - mathematical

modelling. We expect that models will assist a multidisciplinary team of experts in

erecting and assuring feasibility of self-sustained cycles. Moreover, models provide a

media to hold discussions with the actors of the Balaban Valley project, as

COMPRAM (10) suggests.

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Recent experience reported by the experts and practioners from the Sustainable

Agriculture and Farmer Assistance Association (Sürdürülebilir Tarım ve Çiftçi

Yardımlaşma Derneği) has dwelled upon the identifying and promoting leadership

from local inhabitants. This association has set its principles in inducing participation

and farmer training, underlining the utmost importance of gaining approval through

self-induced idea creation among the fellow inhabitants throughout education

sessions. We think that this practice is very much what the COMPRAM method

advocates in motivating the actors to be active.

Value creating economic activities will be considered by their particular requirements

and impacts. These can best be studied by a simple system dynamics model. In its

simplest form, a system dynamics model represents evolution in system state

variables in terms of positive and negative loops. A workable balance (or equilibrium)

of many different flows (like funds, manpower use, material) over the acts and

outcomes, and a fit to the unique physical characteristics of the area (soil, irrigation,

weather, etc.) have to be sought. Local leaders informed through expert opinions and

technical support will take initiative in describing these dynamics. This will also

require an educated guess (from the experts) combined local insight as to what these

potential flows can be (both qualitatively and quantitatively) in the near future.

A wealth of data is available in government agencies. One such source is the Town

District Land Resources Rosters (Il Arazi Varlığı kitabı) available through the Rural

Services Directorate (Köy Hizmetleri Müdürlüğü). We also plan for survey data to be

collected via questionnaire applied to households. Township based Agricultural Plans

(Il Master Tarım Planı) will also help to gather necessary basic data.

Collective resolutions will be sought in this rural change project. Lack of initial funds,

knowledge and instutional contacts can only be overcome by mutual support among

the participants. This creates a dichotomy though. On one hand, solid and

undisputed success stories need be shown to induce a widespread acceptance. On

the other hand, success in individual attempts would be very limited unless it has the

minimal required support from the fellow neighbours. For instance, in establishing

institutionalized linkages to market the local produce, at least a few households

should join their efforts.

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Gaining the support of women and respect among the inhabitants for the knowledge

of the experts will be essential in this regard. Demonstrating the benefits of improved

practices on pilot scale through the induced leaders’ farming at the outset will be a

way to penetrate into the complicated social interactions. Mutual trust, respect and

cordiality shall establish through implementation stages of this change project.

Hence, the power factor in COMPRAM will first be understood and later

compassionately steered in support of seeking improvement directions. Assesment

of not only the material facts but such social and pyschological factors need be

included.

3.4. Data Collection, Analysis and Decision Making

It is considered that the relationship between knowledge, attitute and behavior seems

to be a basic interactive relationship that needs to be investigated specific to issues

of sustainable development focused towards improving the quality of life of villagers.

The group of villages sharing the same geography in the valley will bound our

problem. Agricultural development will be the problem context. Traditional forms of

activity and the existing resource infrastructure (land, human resource, knowledge,

capital, technology, etc.) define the starting conditions. After pilot studies, a baseline

field survey pertaining to such conditions followed by a thorough analysis of the

relations specific to the conditions pertaining to achieve sustainable development will

be initiated to generate policy implications and develop and implement policies

towards improving the quality of life of villagers. For this end, the Project aims to

utilize multiple types of studies and data collection techniques. Primarily multiplicity

of study types including exploratory, descriptive and hypothesis generating types of

study will be used. Similarly multiple data collection techniques - documentary-

historical, observation and survey (questionnary and interviews) are planned to be

used for the knowledge and information needed in the Project.

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Ecological land planning, developing renewable energies, sustainable agricultural

practices should be based on the information obtained from environment, and the

behaviour and feelings of people living in the area (social data). Soil quality (SQ)

assessment may facilitate management decisions of farmers who are interested in

sustainable agricultural practices. A SQ index is comprised of a minimum data set of

chemical, biological and physical indicators (11). To make indicator measures

meaningful, decision tools must provide agronomic and environmental

interpretations, reflecting both farmer and sociatal values. The villagers perception of

SQ derived from measurements and analysis has been evaluated and agreement

between the two were given by Andrews et al. (12). In this study a link between SQ

and its relation with organic farming will be established. Moreover, the correlation

between SQ and economics will be sought. Adaptive management and decision

making will be supported with the data obtained from the valley dynamically. The

capacity of the valley will be monitored by the images taken from satellite, an

airborne balloon equipped with cameras for stereoscopic images and also by the site

specific stations for local information.

3.5. Mathematical Modeling – Data Collection, Inverse Problems, Statistical Learning and Decision Making

Since in the previous decades natural resources and financial budgets turned out to

be limited on both a local and a global stage, and since consciousness about a

common responsibility for the heritage earth grew, applied mathematics has more

and more become considered to be promising as a key technology for problem

solving in the minds of decision makers in business and politics and, last but not

least, in public opinion. Herewith, the methodological offers given by applied

mathematics become welcome not only in classical biosciences but, in a wider

sense, in human sciences and, finally, in life sciences.

In the course of the development which modern societies and sciences went through

in the last decades, also mathematical modeling became appreciated, too. Its

“smear” and patterns coming from the contact to real world reality which is asking

applied mathematics for help, become positively reconsidered. In fact, mathematical

modeling is the transformation of problems given to applied mathematics by other

sciences, economy, technology and, as we in this paper mainly focus on, life

sciences, into mathematical formulas. This transformation is worked out together by

both mathematicians and representatives of those other research and application

fields and it consists of an intercultural process of mutual learning. Those formulas

are the reflection of problems discussed together in the language of mathematics.

They are the first “product” of mathematical modeling. Since, however, mutual

learning takes place among human beings which also get introduced and learn

themselves as members of teams, a correction of wrong images about other and own

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scientific cultures and traditions is, hopefully, a second (by-) product of the process of

mathematical modeling.

Before any mathematical modeling or data fitting can be done, a careful data

collection has to be guaranteed. This necessity is subordinate with respect to the

entire applied problem or project under consideration and, herewith, an

interdisciplinary task which finally aims at decision making and problem solving.

Which kinds of data are characteristic for the intended model, what are their physical

dimensions, their chemical, biological, social or financial units? In other words: What

information content and quality of possible data should be preferred, and can those

data be translated and embedded into a sought model which is formulated in

quantitative terms of mathematics? Such a bundle of questions can only be

answered together with the colleagues from other sciences, from technology and

economy. Data collection and acquisition means measurements, experiments, and

communication. This asks for modern technical equipment, a deep understanding of

nature, appropriate financial sources and, last but not least, for an excellent

understanding of men, a psychological and social sensitivity, experience and

devotion. Herewith, data collection, the basis of mathematical modeling, has both its

different targets and its various constraints, i.e., it implies a number of optimization

problems. This first thorough process of optimization underlying the data collection is

sometimes called experimental design. Having made this design and found the data,

then, these data have to be well interpreted. In the following, we shall dynamically

incorporate such a data analysis into the whole entity of mathematical modeling and

problem solution. Hereby, this dynamics will be called learning.

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As we saw, mathematical modeling is a transformation – just a translation – by which

a problem solution process initiates which tries to use methods of mathematics. In

fact, a mathematical model is a system where a number of parameters could be

specified by the modeling process itself, but where further variables remain to be

observed or optimized in the sequel, e.g., in the course of time. Such a system may

be a system of linear or nonlinear equations, differential of integral equations,

dynamical systems, optimization or optimal control problems. However, mathematical

modeling itself takes into account a larger time horizon. In fact, provided a number of

samples, measurements or experiments are done, such that data are collected, and

provided a certain first relation about how these data can be explained, how they

became an outcome of a system from, e.g., life sciences, then mathematical

modeling describes such a model closer, specifies model parameters which still were

unknown. Since those real data are mostly affected with noise, with various

measurement inaccuracies or perturbations in signal transfer, this specification is

mostly done according to a maximum likelihood of those parameter values. We also

say that these parameters become estimated, and we talk about an inverse problem:

the conclusion of “inner” parameters on the basis of “outer” data (13). The aspect of

prediction, i.e., anticipation of future, consists in the wide functional domain and

range of the mathematical model. Based on a countable, in general, finite set of data

which are due to discrete time points, the model with its estimated parameter values

(according to highest evidence, maximum likelihood), describes the considered

system from real life in a way which encompasses a continuum of time points and,

finally, even future. When a modeling is done, i.e., estimation made, then the

utilization of confidence regions, tests and correlation coefficients serve for validating

the goodness of data fitting and for working out intrinsic substructures of the system

where the model can be reduced to.

In the simple case of a model without noise in the data, i.e., which is deterministic

rather than stochastic, we are looking for “least squares” of errors of the approximate

model parameters. In the more realistic stochastic case which we take into account,

we maximize the likelihood, or we minimize the expected squared error. Observation

and minimization of those and further errors, biases and variances is the object of

interest of statistical learning and simulation (14); for a new approach to the implied

aspect of prediction by optimization we refer to (15). In fact, while model building

means some training of the model based on the input of data, the learning process

taking place then, implies a testing and permanent model improvement by

diminishing of training error and test error. This means a mathematical approach to

learning, and continuous learning prepares and enables for decision making.

For the Balaban Valley project, mathematical modeling, the theory of inverse

problems and statistical learning, are considered to contribute to answers of

problems from the following fields:

• statistical analysis of questionnaires about the village peoples’ wishes, sorrows

and expectations,

• modeling of the migration developments between the valley and outside,

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• modeling of the relation between the villages in the valley,

• modeling in forestry and of resource utilization in the valley, e.g., wastewater

cycle,

• modeling and optimization of first plans in agricultural and further refining

production, and in trading.

3.6. Conceived Sustainability Cycles

3.6.1. Animal Waste – Biogas – Fertilizer Cycle Various traditional energy sources are used in villages in Turkey. The biomass

energy is the most abundant source of heat energy, i.e., kitchen use and home

heating. The sun dried cow dunk is one of the most common fuel used for heating

purposes in villages. Using wood from nearby forest or tree brunches from pruning is

rather limited as biomass source because most of the anatolian villages are in arid

regions and steps. Using animal dunk and wood as primary heat source is the least

efficient way of using this biomass energy source. A more efficient way of energy

conversion may be achieved if animal waste is converted to biogas and the residue

after this process is a valuable fertilizer to condition soil in organic farming.

Anaerobic digestion of animal waste was applied world wide, especially in India,

China, south Asian countries, Europe, and Africa. In Balaban Valley project a small

scale biogas digester will be initiated for one-to-several cows that can be expanded

in the future with increasing number of cows in the farm. The digestor will be

constructed from an inexpensive, light and durable material for long life time and with

a temperature controller to keep the system at optimum condition for biogas

production.

Figure 1 depicts our notion of an sustainability-improved temporal cycle. In Figure 1a

lower quality waste cycle is shown. In Figure 1b some new elements with impacts to

induce sustainaibility with a higher quality are added. Some elements are intangible

shown by dashed lines. Induced income through cost savings and higher marketable

value in a period, in turn, feeds the cycle through better spending on primary sources

of energy and investments to enlarge the basis for cultivation and farm animals in the

next period. Hence sustainability is assured better.

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sun water

cowproducts

(milk,meat)

plant

heat(dunk)waste

fertilizer

(a)

sun

water

cow products(milk, meat)plant

heat(dunk)wastebiogas reactor

heat orelectricalenergy

high density energy(tractor fuel, electricity)

fertilizer

cost savings and increasedexpendable income and

savings

enlargedbasis for

marketability

investment

investment

expenditure on energy consumption

(b)

Figure 1. A conceived animal waste-biogas cycle; (a) conventional low energy cycle,

(b) high efficiency energy cycle.

3.6.2. Rapeseed – Biodiesel – Animal Feed Cycle

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One of the major expenses of the people living in the village is the cost of the diesel

fuel used in tractors for agriculture and transportation. Biodiesel is becoming an

alternative to fossil fuel and is getting popular world wide due to its neutrality in terms

of carbon dioxide contribution to the atmosphere and low sulfur dioxide content. Now,

a project is developed for construction of a small scale biodiesel reactor, with seed

press and storage tanks by the participation of Middle East Technical University,

İstanbul Technical University, EIE (State Electricity Works) and other universities,

and companies joint around a multidisciplinary study. Rapeseed will be grown in the

region as a source of oil. This plant is the choosen due to high oil content of its seeds

(38-50%). A 200-L capacity biodiesel reactor will be constructed and a small scale

production will be carried out on rapeseed oil that will be obtained from a pilot

plantation. The biodiesel fuel production will be carried out by the technical staff of

fhe project. We demonstrate our initial idea of integrating biodiesel producing process

with the increased potential for expendable income and animal husbandry in Figure

2. Sustainability is through channeling the effects of extra income. This reproductive

potential needs to be carefully planned for through the use of dynamic modelling for

optimal returns in time.

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conveyor belt (1)

filter (3) oil storage tank

methanol tank (6)NaOH tank (5)

metoxide mixer (7)

esterification reactor

decantation tanks(10) washing

system (11)

glycerol tank (12) biodiesel tank (13)

water tank (9)

rapeseedplantation

enlarged cultivationland and irrigation

potential

Investment

cost savings andincreased

expendable incomethrough animal

farming

seed press

residue as animal feed

P-2

Figure 2. Rapeseed – Biodiesel – animal feed cycle

3.6.3. Irrigation – Land Cultivation - Bioenergy Cycle

Various energy efficient agricultural practices will be considered in Balaban Valley

Project. Water management systems using drip irrigation and decision making on the

quality of soil will be considered. Our conception of the cycle formed by irrigation

inducing increased biodiesel source plants to be fed back into the water cycle as

source of energy needed to pump water to higher lands is shown in Figure 3 below.

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The dashed box for increased income and investment rises the need to discover

intelligent ways to apportion funds among various uses, namely to improve water

sources and irrigation network. Modelling can help in this regard to allocate

investable savings through time.

waterresource

water storagetank

plantsbiodieselproduction

increasedincome andinvestment

pump

electricalenergy

valve

enlarged cultivationland and irrigation

potential

Figure 3. Irrigation – cultivation – bioenergy cycle

3.6.4. Permaculture based cycle

Recently organic agriculture is of great interest all over the world. In organic

agriculture almost no synthetic chemicals are used. In Balaban Valley Project the

organic residue from biogas and biodiesel production and other sources of biomass

will be composted and used in soil as fertilizer. Instead of using pesticides, an

“Integrated Pest Management” (IPM) system is considered during the selection of the

plants so as they may affect each other in a positive way; pests which are harmful for

a kind of plant are repelled by another kind of plant and a synergy is created between

them. A new design concept is developed for creating sustainable human

environments in Australia by Bill Mollison (16). The aim is to create systems that are

ecologically sound and economically viable, and do not exploit or pollute, hence are

sustainable in the long term. Permaculture uses the inherent qualities of plants and

animals combined with the natural characteristics of landscapes to produce a life-

supporting system. We will consider this combination as another cycle to be set up

as illustrated in Figure 4. All these new concepts will be developed with participation

of experts and actors of the Balaban valley, the villagers using the methodologies

described on COMPRAM.

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water, nutrients, air,environmental

parameterssun

soil

micro-organisms

plants animals

pests waste

energyproductionresidue

Figure 4. Creating synergy between plants, animals and environment using

permaculture design criteria.

3.6.5. Sustainable Agriculture

Ecological systems are under heavy threat of pollution for about 30 years. This

period coincides with what is called a “green revolution” due to wide spread irrigation,

intense fertilization of soil and developing more resistant plants to patogens and

insects. The annual global synthetic fertilizer consumption increased from 31 million

tons to 135 million tons from 1961 to 1996 (3). Large scale use of fertilizers and

pesticides caused many health problems on public, increase the pollution of land and

natural water. Moreover, the quality of products degraded due to rapid growth of

plants using growth hormons and many other chemicals. Although more than 100 %

increase in agricultural production was obtained during the green revolution, this is

also the main reason for degredation of ecological systems.

Present status of agriculture in Balaban Valley is the conventional agricultural

practices; synthetic fertilizers and pesticides are widely used and a few crops (grains

and sunflower in arid lands, vegetables in irrigated lands) are planted each year.

Water channels spreaded over the valley are used for irrigation of fields weekly.

These fields are flattened for spreading the water uniformly and soil is soaked in

water directed from these channels. Due to intense water consumption in this

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conventional irrigation system, water in Balaban stream dried completely in some

dry summer months.

3.6.7. Education for All

For the people living in rural area education of their children have prime importance.

They think their children can find jobs in a nearby town or a large city if they are well

educated. Turkish primary school education is common for all students which covers

8 years, and three-year secondary education is given either in general high school for

preparing students to university education, and technical or nontechnical high

schools for training students for work after graduation, at the same time giving them

a chance to enter university if they are successful in a common university entrance

examination. However, in Turkey there are only limited number of high schools on

agricultural training. Students from rural area who has a chance to go to high school

usually prefer going to a technical high school. Thus, the youngsters from rural area

have a desire to migrate larger town and expect to find a job in an industrial field

rather than staying in the village and working with the soil.

One of the aims of Balaban Valley project is to provide complementary education for

all people living in rural areas in a holistic way; that is in fields of agriculture, ecology

(understanding relations in nature), technical, social and art. Various modern tools

(computer with internet connection, scanner, printer, digital camera, TV, video) will be

utilized for accessing and dissiminating information. The training will be carried out

with experts and students from universities and teaching will be based on appications

and hand-on experiments. The training program will be developed with the desire of

the local people and recommendations from experts. Here, the methodology of

COMPRAM will be considered.

Conlusions

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Balaban Valley Project will be handled as a complex societal problem to improve the

quality of life in rural area in central Turkey. Experts from different fields and actors

(villagers, state organizations, university students, NGO’s) will participate in this

study in the framework of COMPRAM method. The renewable energies such as

biogas, biodiesel, and efficient irrigation, organic farming, will be considered as

Turkey’s primary goals in rural development. Energy, irrigation and agricultural cycles

will be developed for improving efficiency of production, hence lowering the burden of

development on environment. Education of people at all levels is another issue in this

project. The interaction between neighbor villages will be improved using modern

information technologies. Balaban Valley Project is a model project and standards

developed here will be extended to the other villages in future.

References

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1602-1603.

2. World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) (Johannesburg, 26 August -

4 September 2002), Plan of Implementation, paragraph 40)

3. http://www.fao.org

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Development into Agricultural Policies”, FAO Agricultural and Economic

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5. Official Journal of Turkey (Resmi Gazete), 24 December 1994, No: 22145.

6. Lotka A.J., “Contribution to the energetics of evolution”, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 8,

147-155, 1922.

7. “Ecosystem Modelling in Theory and Practice: An Introduction with Case Histories”

Eds. Hall C.A.S., Day J.W., Wiley-Interscience Publication, 1977.

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Massachusetts

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European Journal of Operational Research (2001) 128, 266-281.

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11. Andrews SS, Michell JP, Mancinelli R, Karlen DL, Hartz TK Horwarth WR,

Pettygrove GS, Scow KM, Munk DS, “On-farm assessment of soil quality on

California’s central valley”, Agronomy Journal (2002) 94, 12-23.

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acceptance of soil quality indices”. Geoderma 114(2003) 187-213.

13. Aster, A., Borchers, B., Thurber, C., Parameter Estimation and Inverse Problems,

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