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  • CTCP VNG BC QU

    PH NHUN

    (PNJ - HOSE)

    Khuyn ngh: MUA

    Thng tin c phn (20/06/2013)

    Th gi (ng) 27,400

    SL CP nim yt (triu CP) 72.0

    Vn ho TT (t ng) 1,958

    KLGD bq 10 ngy (CP) 25,617

    Cao nht 52 tun 43,000

    Thp nht 52 tun 25,000

    Ngy GD u tin 23/03/2009

    Ch s c bn

    21/06/2013

    CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ - HOSE) l doanh nghip

    hng u ti Vit Nam trong lnh vc sn xut, kinh doanh trang sc

    thnh phm bng vng bc, y, vng ming thnh phm, qu,

    bn qu c tng hp hoc ti to, bch kim cha gia cng hoc

    dng bn thnh phm hoc dng bt Ngoi ra PNJ cn c dch v

    kim nh kim cng v qu.

    PNJ c t chc Plimsoll ca Anh quc nh gi l cng ty sn xut

    trang sc vng bc qu ln th 3 trn ton th gii v quy m sn

    xut. Ngoi ra, ti th trng Vit Nam PNJ cng ng th 3 trong

    nhm cc nh bn l ln nht th trng, sau Coop Mart v Nguyn

    Kim. PNJ cng nm trong top 10 doanh nghip t nhn ln nht Vit

    Nam nm 2012 theo bang xp hng VNR500 v l mt trong 16 doanh

    nghip c NHNN cp php kinh doanh vng ming.

    Trao i vi DAS, b L L An Na, ph trch CBTT ca PNJ cho

    bit: sau 5T/2013, PNJ t 3,148 t ng doanh thu (hon thnh 40.4%

    k hoch nm), li nhun trc thu t 104 t ng (hon thnh 37%

    k hoch nm). Kt thc nm 2012, PNJ t 6,779 t ng doanh thu

    v 254.4 t ng LNST, EPS 2012 t 3,534 ng/cp.

    PNJ l mt trong s t cc doanh nghip khng hot ng u t a

    ngnh m ch tp trung vo hot ng ct li ca doanh nghip l trang

    sc vng bc qu vi li nhun n nh qua cc nm. EPS bnh

    qun trong 6 nm qua duy tr mc gn 4,000 /cpNgoi ra,

    l doanh nghip him hoi tng vn iu l khng thng qua pht

    hnh thm m hon ton s dng ngun lc t c t ngun thng

    d vn c phn v li nhun gi li.

    Sc khe ti chnh ca PNJ mc hon ho, dng tin ca doanh

    nghip n nh vi lung tin t hot ng kinh doanh ct li lun

    dng qua cc nm kt hp vi hot ng u t khng ngng m

    rng mng li phn phi bn hng trn khp c nc.

    PNJ tr c tc bng tin mt u n cho c ng hng nm vi t l

    bnh qun 26%/nm (cha bao gm thng bng c phiu).

    Khi nh u t nc ngoi ang nm gi ti a t l s hu cho php

    49% vn c phn ca PNJ. Thng k thc t cho thy khi nh u t

    nc ngoi ch nm t trng ti a ti cc doanh nghip hng u Vit

    Nam vi hot ng kinh doanh n nh, tim nng pht trin tt v

    minh bch trong cng b thng tin.

    EPS 2012 (ng/CP) 3,534

    BV 2012 (ng/CP) 17,247

    P/E 7.6

    P/B 1.57

    Beta 0.34

    Din bin giao dch

    BO CO PHN TCH

    Thc hin:

    BAN PHN TCH 2

    Ch tiu 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (P)

    C tc tin mt 18% 35% 20% 30% 19% 15% 25% 25% 23% 20%

    Thng c phiu 12.5% 36% 100% 33% 50% 20%

  • Bo co phn tch - CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ)

    Trang 2 Dong A Securities - www.dag.vn

    KT QU HOT NG KINH DOANH 2012

    Doanh thu nm 2012 c s st gim mnh so vi nm 2011 (-63%) tuy

    nhin li nhun ch gim nh 1.2% so vi nm 2011, nguyn nhn ch

    yu l do s st gim mnh trong mng kinh doanh vng ming, c th

    nh sau:

    Doanh thu trang sc vng PNJ:

    PNJ vi kt qu nm 2012 t 3,647 t ng doanh thu (57% tng

    doanh thu) v 409 t ng li nhun gp (74% li nhun gp). 3 knh

    bn hng chnh l knh s, knh l v xut khu. Trong nm 2012,

    mng kinh doanh s t mc tng trng n tng 8% vi u th vt

    tri v thng hiu so vi cc i th cnh tranh trong ngnh. H

    thng phn phi ca lnh vc ny trn khp c nc tnh n ht nm

    2012 l 57 ca hng, tng 2 ca hng so vi 2011. c bit, vic

    khnh thnh xi nghip n trang mi ti ng Dng Qung Hm,

    Q.G Vp vi din tch gn 12.500m2 (gp 3 ln x nghip c) p

    ng y nhu cu sn xut ca PNJ hin nay v nhu cu cho k

    hoch di hi trong 10 nm tip theo.

    C CU C NG

    Tnh n ngy 20/6/2012, b Cao Th Ngc

    Dung (ch tch HQT kim Tng gim c)

    triu c phiu). Hai con gi ca b l Trn Ngc

    Phng Giao v Trn Ngc Phng Tho ang

    nm gi tng cng 6.41% c phn (4.6 triu c

    phiu). Cc c ng t chc, c nhn nc

    ngoi ang s hu 49% vn c phn ca PNJ v

    khng th mua thm. Cc t chc, c nhn khc

    trong nc ang s hu 33% c phn cn li

    (23.8 triu c phiu).

    Ch tiu 2011 2012 Y on Y Q1/2012 Q1/2013 Q on Q

    Doanh thu thun 943 708 -25% 254 105 -59%

    Li nhun gp 113 88 -22% 30 16 -45%

    Li nhun ti chnh (41) (59) - (9) (9) -2%

    Li nhun trc thu 35 5 -85% 12 2 -85%

    Li nhun sau thu 29 0 -99% 10 1 -85%

    EPS (ng/cp) 777 21 -97% 198 21 -89%

    ROA 1.4% 0.1% -95% 0.4% 0.1% -86%

    ROE 6.5% 0.2% -97% 1.6% 0.2% -88%

    ROS 2.9% 0.2% -93% 3.7% 1.4% -63%

  • Bo co phn tch - CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ)

    Trang 3 Dong A Securities - www.dag.vn

    KT QU HOT NG KINH DOANH 2012

    Doanh thu trang sc bc PNJ: 90% doanh thu t mng hot ng ny

    trng trng yu vn l khu vc Tp.HCM (64%), H Ni v cc tnh ln

    cn (21%). Sn phm ca mng kinh doanh ny ch yu thuc phn khc

    trung cp, i tng khch hng l hc sinh, sinh vin v cc bn tr c

    thu nhp trung bnh. Trong nm 2012, PNJ p dng nhiu chng trnh

    chit khu ln n 20-30% cho cc dng sn phm trn nn vn duy tr

    thu v 104 t ng li nhun gp. H thng phn phi cho dng sn phm

    PNJSilver khp c nc n ht ngy 31/12/2012 l 88 ca hng, n ht

    thng 5/2013 tng thm 2 ca hng ( Tp.HCM v Bnh Dng).

    Doanh thu vng ming:

    nhiu ri ro bin ng. Trong nm 2012, vi ch trng qun l tht cht

    hot ng sn xut kinh doanh vng ming ca chnh ph (Ngh nh 24/

    N-CP), doanh thu vng ming ca PNJ gim hn 70%. Tuy nhin, li nhun bin t mng

    hot ng ny kh thp nn khng nh hng nhiu n hot ng kinh doanh ca PNJ khi ch

    CP NHT KT QU KINH DOANH 5T/2013

    Doanh thu ly k ca cng ty m 5 thng u nm 2013 t gn 3,148 t

    nm, c th nh sau:

    Doanh thu trang sc vng: t gn 1,750 t ng ly k 5 thng, tng

    13% so vi cng k nm 2012, hon thnh 40% k hoc nm. Trong

    tng mnh nht l doanh thu t knh s vi mc tng ly k gn 26% nh

    m rng c th trng mi ra cc tnh vng su vng xa. Hot ng

    ny cng ng gp hn 206 t ng vo li nhun gp ly k 5 thng,

    tng 18% so vi cng k v hon thnh 42% k hoch nm.

    Doanh thu trang sc bc:

    cng k v hon thnh 35% k hoch nm. Li nhun gp t mng ny

    hoch nm.

    Doanh thu vng ming: tuy chim t trng ln trong c cu doanh thu

    khi t hn 1,328 t ng (42% Tng doanh thu - 41% k hoch nm)

    nhng li nhun gp mang li ch hn 2.12 t ng (1% li nhun gp -

    7% k hoch nm).

    Doanh thu t cc sn phm, dch v khc: bao gm cc sn phm

    Yabling, Jemma, ng h v cc dch v khc t hn 8.6 t ng doanh

    thu, gim 15% so vi cng k nm 2012 v hon thnh gn 40% k

    hoch nm. Li nhun gp t mng hot ng ny em li cho PNJ gn

    5.1 t ng (gim 26% so vi cng k - hon thnh 36% k hoch nm).

  • Bo co phn tch - CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ)

    Trang 4 Dong A Securities - www.dag.vn

    PHN TCH TNH HNH TI CHNH

    T khi nim yt trn sn HOSE ngy 23/3/2009 cho n ht qu I/2013,

    Tng ti sn ca PNJ tng 32%, trong :

    Ti sn ngn hn tng 50% (Tin v tng ng tin tng 118% ln

    mc 599 t ng, hng tn kho tng 47% ln mc 763 t ng cui qu

    I/2013).

    Ti sn di hn tng 16% (u t di vo cng ty lin doanh lin kt

    tng 99% ln mc 258.5 t ng, Ti sn c nh hu hnh v v hnh

    tng 36%).

    Ngun vn ch s hu tng 37% so vi nm 2009, trong Li nhun

    sau thu cha phn phi tng 548% ln mc 339 t ng (bng 47%

    vn iu l). N phi tr cui qu I/2013 tng nh 5.6% so vi cui nm

    2012, trong Vay n ngn hn t hn 1,049 t ng (76% c cu N

    phi tr), Vay n di hn hn 170 t ng (12% c cu N phi tr).

    hiu sut s dng vn lun mc cao v nhn c s tn nhim t cc t chc tn dng, minh

    Trao i vi DAS, PNJ

    cho bit trong nm 2013,

    theo nh hng chnh

    sch ca NHNN, doanh

    nghip s gim dn t

    trng vay n di hn (ch

    yu l cc khon vay

    bng vng nhm cn bng

    trng thi) chuyn

    sang tp trung vo vay n

    ngn hn.

    STT Bn cho vay ngn hnGi tr

    (t VND)Mc ch vay Li sut Hnh thc m bo

    1 MB - CN Bc Si Gn 100.0 B sung vn lu ng 9.0% Tn chp

    2 Vietinbank - CN HCM 29.9 B sung vn lu ng 9.0% Tn chp

    3 Eximbank - SGD 1 45.8 B sung vn lu ng 9.0% C phiu DongA Bank

    88.2 B sung vn lu ng 9.5-10.5% Tn chp

    13.4 B sung vn lu ng 6.0% Tn chp

    159 B sung vn lu ng 9.0% C phiu DongA Bank

    2.1 B sung vn lu ng 6.5% C phiu DongA Bank

    6 Techcombank 150 B sung vn lu ng 9.0% Tn chp

    7 C nhn 114 B sung vn lu ng 8-10% Tn chp

    8 N di hn n hn tr 348 2013 4-4.2% QSD - CP DAB

    1,049 Tng

    4 Vietcombank - CN HCM

    5 ACB - S giao dch

  • Bo co phn tch - CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ)

    Trang 5 Dong A Securities - www.dag.vn

    PHN TCH TNH HNH TI CHNH

    Dng tin lu chuyn ca PNJ rt lnh mnh v n nh, trong :

    lun dng t nm 2008 cho n nay cho thy hot ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip

    xut to ra gi tr thng d thc t.

    ch yu tp trung vo

    vic mua sm dy chuyn, my mc, cng ngh sn xut

    n trang, kim hon v u t chin lc vo cc doanh

    nghip tim nng em li hiu qu u t cao, c th:

    Ch yu l hot ng

    tn dng nhm p ng nhu cu vn lu ng trong k.

    Cc ch s nh gi kh

    nng thanh ton ca PNJ

    vn mc rt an ton, m

    bo kh nng thanh ton

    cc khon n v ngha v

    pht sinh. Ch s kh nng

    thanh ton nhanh gim nh

    trong nm 2012 do Vay n

    ngn hn tng 67%mc d

    hng tn kho gim hn

    18% so vi nm 2011. S

    d tin ca PNJ cui nm

    2012 l gn 469 t ng, s

    d tin cui qu I/2013 l

    gn 599 t ng.

    Cc ch s v hiu qu hot ng cho thy PNJ ang qun l kh tt vic thu hi cng n ca khch hng. Tuy nhin, ch s

    vng quay khon phi thu v vng quay hng tn kho ang c xu hng gim do tnh hnh kinh t kh khn, nhu cu th

    trng st gim v do cc chnh sch u i v thanh ton, chit khu ca PNJ nhm chia s kh khn vi cc khch hng.

    Cc ch s v c cu Ngun vn cho thy PNJ ang ti cu trc li c cu Ngun vn theo hng gim t trng N phi tr,

    bn cnh l vic c cu cc khon Vay n di hn sang Vay n ngn hn ang c y nhanh trong nm 2013.

    Cc ch s v kh nng sinh li cho thy s hiu qu v n nh trong hot ng ca PNJ bt chp bin ng ca th trng.

    ROE bnh qun t khi nim yt nm 2009 n nay lun c duy tr trn 20%,/nm ROA cng c duy tr mc bnh qun

    9.4%/nm. ROA ca PNJ qu I/2013 t 2.5%, d kin ROA c nm 2013 s mc 10%/nm, cao hn mc li sut gi

    tit kim hin hnh v li sut vay vn u vo ca PNJ ( mc 9-9.5%).

    Ch tiu Nm 2007 Nm 2008 Nm 2009 Nm 2010 Nm 2011 Nm 2012 Qu I/2013

    Dng tin H Kinh doanh -67,987,866,056 324,147,823,504 45,534,476,465 3,071,123,284 154,227,330,292 194,972,707,802 100,859,335,147

    -22,744,911,528 -31,942,217,928 -39,890,584,302 -58,319,330,507 -103,861,814,898 -101,911,586,414 -18,103,192,864

    -153,137,167,913 152,635,162,866 -105,161,138,461 53,293,918,839 -11,140,015,759 -165,811,248,496 -31,058,122,287

    -11,701,622,765 -948,274,834 -61,216,882,336 -261,578,272,583 -217,205,994,746 172,002,642,355 28,313,674,258

    Dng tin H u t -302,342,628,343 -392,816,923,699 -102,482,640,386 -203,322,254,558 -102,888,235,310 126,828,563,390 -11,850,524,143

    -62,726,192,843 -300,793,468,406 -102,468,852,843 -112,361,991,985 -115,655,063,956 -70,213,384,150 -9,917,593,394

    -377,473,547,576 -159,221,739,000 -125,568,170,000 -217,110,697,000 34,298,300,000 -38,020,910,985 -

    105,331,502,496 29,420,000,000 59,393,497,000 29,675,000,000 0 99,569,666,282 0

    49,780,246,580 37,761,583,707 33,929,329,028 51,388,081,132 47,508,585,919 53,764,811,788 5,705,615

    Dng tin H Ti chnh 688,920,001,608 28,747,984,718 121,605,721,311 263,054,276,460 61,228,984,181 -307,284,747,837 41,201,522,465

    725,000,000,000 - - - - - -

    1,235,060,602,407 1,491,252,597,816 3,836,446,956,347 6,599,955,894,699 8,767,143,927,774 3,427,905,908,708 958,771,869,200

    -1,277,717,891,300 -1,339,094,448,798 -3,613,830,205,036 -6,254,018,176,391 -8,551,891,484,141 -3,585,225,129,370 -917,570,346,735

    -16,754,754,000 -125,824,563,000 -96,911,091,000 -80,716,342,550 -150,183,653,750 -149,965,528,175 -

    Lu chuyn tin thun 318,589,507,209 -39,921,115,477 64,657,557,390 62,803,145,186 112,568,079,163 14,516,523,355 130,210,333,469

    DNG TIN

    Cc ch s ti chnh vt 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

    H s thanh ton hin hnh Ln 2.37 1.22 1.08 0.95 1.65 1.19 1.22

    H s thanh ton nhanh Ln 2.29 1.12 0.51 0.34 0.65 0.49 0.59

    Vng quay khon phi thu Vng 12.7 75.5 74.2 238.9 253.5 125.0 23.7

    K thu tin bnh qun Ngy 28.3 4.8 4.9 1.5 1.4 2.9 3.8

    Vng quay hng tn kho Vng 70.5 56.1 18.7 17.6 17.8 7.7 2.1

    S ngy vng quay HTK Ngy 5.1 6.4 19.2 20.5 20.2 46.6 43.1

    H s N/TTS Ln 0.32 0.43 0.51 0.56 0.60 0.51 0.51

    H s N/VCSH Ln 0.46 0.75 1.07 1.33 1.57 1.05 1.05

    ROA % 8.1% 7.5% 10.1% 8.6% 8.8% 10.0% 2.5%

    ROE % 11.8% 13.0% 21.4% 20.3% 22.7% 20.5% 5.0%

    Li nhun HKD/Tng DT % 5.1% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 4.0% 4.9%

    Cc ch tiu v kh nng thanh ton

    Cc ch tiu v c cu vn

    Cc ch tiu v kh nng sinh li

    Cc ch tiu v hot ng

    STTCng ty Lin doanh Lin kt

    u t ti chnh di hn

    T l s

    hu

    Vn thc gp

    (t ng)

    1 CTCP Nhin liu Si Gn (SFC) 49.99% 56.4

    2 CTCP a c ng 30.62% 174.0

    3 DongA Bank 7.7% 395.3

    4 CTCP BS Si Gn M&C - 65.4

    5 CTCP Qu Hng Liberty 6.5% 42.5

    733.6 Tng

  • Bo co phn tch - CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ)

    Trang 6 Dong A Securities - www.dag.vn

    Theo thng k ca Tp ch ti chnh (c

    quan ca B Ti chnh), tnh n thng

    3/2013, PNJ ang l thng hiu sn

    xut vng trang sc ln nht Vit

    Nam vi mng li phn phi rng khp

    65 tnh thnh ln nh trong c nc v

    khu n trang dng tinh xo ln nht.

    Ti th trng Vit Nam, PNJ ng th 3

    trong nhm cc nh bn l ln nht th

    trng, sau Coop Mart v Nguyn Kim.

    Bn cnh , ngy 18 thng 10 nm 2012, PNJ khnh thnh x nghip n trang mi vi quy m vn u t gn 120 t, tng

    din tch s dng ln n 12,500 m2, tr thnh mt trong nhng x nghip n trang ln nht trong khu vc Chu , d

    kin s p ng nhu cu sn xut - cung ng - kinh doanh ca PNJ cho th trng trong nc v xut khu trong 10 nm

    ti. Song song vi vic khnh thnh x nghip n trang mi, d n xy dng Trung Tm Kim Hon PNJ Ph Nhun cng

    , gp phn khng nh v th v ng cp ca thng

    hiu n trang PNJ.

    tm quc t, PNJ l 1 trong 3 doanh nghip Vit Nam c nhn gii thng Cht lng Chu - Thi Bnh Dng nm

    2011 v lin tc c mt trong bng xp hng top 500 nh bn l hng u Chu Thi Bnh Dng. Ngoi ra, PNJ

    l cng ty sn xut trang sc vng bc qu ln th 3 trn ton th gii

    v quy m sn xut.

    PNJ l mt trong 38 doanh nghip c NHNN cp php kinh doanh vng ming (bao gm 16 doanh nghip kinh doanh vng

    bc qu v 22 ngn hng).

    Cc doanh nghip c php kinh doanh vng ming, v cng l cc i th cnh tranh ca PNJ trn th trng:

    PNJ l doanh nghip vng n trang duy nht ti Vit Nam m khi ngoi s hu mc kch trn 49% vn c phn. Nguyn

    nhn l do tnh minh bch trong cng b thng tin, quy m h thng mng li phn phi, chin lc qun tr ca ban lnh

    V TH CA PNJ TRONG NGNH N TRANG VIT NAM

    STT Tn doanh nghip Phm vi hot ngTrng thi

    cng b thng tin

    S hu

    nc ngoiGhi ch

    1 Cty TNHH MTV Vng bc qu TPHCM - Agribank Tp.HCM Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    2 Tng Cty Vng Agribank Vit Nam - CTCP H Ni - Ngh An Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    3 Cty TNHH Bo Tn Minh Chu Min Bc - Bc Trung b Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    4 CTCP Tp on Vng bc qu DOJI C nc Khng cng b thng tin 0%Top 10 doanh

    nghip ln nht

    Vit Nam 2012

    5 CTCP u t v Kinh doanh Vng Vit Nam H Ni - Tp.HCM Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    6 Cty TNHH MTV Kim Ngc Ph Tp.HCM Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    7 Cty TNHH Mi Hng TP.HCM Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    8 Cty TNHH Vng bc qu Ngc Hi Ty Nam B - Tp.HCM Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    9 Cty TNHH Vng bc qu Ngc Thm Tin Giang - Ty Nam B Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    10 CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun C nc Thng tin cng b minh bch 49%Top 10 doanh

    nghip ln nht

    Vit Nam 2012

    11 Cty TNHH Vng bc Phc Thnh Tp.HCM Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    12 CTCP Vng bc qu Phng Nam Tp.HCM Thng tin cng b minh bch 0%DT 2012: 588 t,

    LNST 2012: 6.5 t

    13 Cty TNHH MTV Vng bc qu Sacombank Nam B - Campuchia Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    14 Cty TNHH MTV Vng bc qu Si Gn - SJC C nc Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    15 CTCP u t Vng Ph Qu H Ni - Vnh Phc - Ninh Bnh Khng cng b thng tin 0%

    16 Cty TNHH MTV Vng bc qu Vietinbank H Ni Khng cng b thng tin 0%

  • Bo co phn tch - CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ)

    Trang 7 Dong A Securities - www.dag.vn

    TRIN VNG V K HOCH NM 2013

    V chin lc kinh doanh v k hoch 2013: Vi nh hng kinh doanh

    trang sc l lnh vc kinh doanh ct li, PNJ k kt hp ng t vn vi

    thc hin ti cu trc hot ng ca cng ty vi tham vng tr thnh cng

    ty ch tc v bn l trang sc hng u ti Chu . Theo , vic ci thin

    hiu qu hot ng ca h thng ca hng phn phi sn phm s l mt

    trong nhng yu t then cht mang li thnh cng ca PNJ trong giai on

    kinh doanh tip theo.

    Nm 2013, PNJ cng tch cc thc hin c cu danh mc u t theo

    hng s thoi vn ti mt s cng ty lin doanh lin kt. c bit, PNJ ang m phn vi nhiu i tc nhm chuyn nhng

    phn vn gp ti CTCP Nhin liu Si Gn (SFC) vi mc gi chuyn nhng d kin cao hn 30% so vi vn gp. Nh vy,

    khon thoi vn ny c th s gip PNJ ghi nhn mc li nhun 41 t ng trong nm 2013. y l khon u t thnh cng th 2

    ca PNJ sau khon u t vo Nng lng i Vit hin thc ho li nhun trong nm 2012.

    V k hoch qun tr:

    phn, nng cao hiu sut lm vic trn ton h thng. Nhanh chng b sung cc v tr qun l cn thiu ng thi thay th cc v tr

    khng theo kp yu cu pht trin. PNJ cng d kin pht hnh 5% c phiu ESOP trong qu 4/2013.

    Chng ti tin hnh nh gi c phiu PNJ da trn vic s dng phng php nh gi kh ph bin l phng php chit khu

    lung c tc (DDM), v phng php xc nh gi tr doanh nghip tng i EV/EBITDA.

    28,571 ng/cp.

    Sut chit khu: ri =10% Tng trng c tc: 3%/nm

    C tc 2013 ca PNJ: 2,000 ng/cp.

    72,595 ng/cp.

    EBITDA ca PNJ nm 2013: 412.6 t ng.

    (

    Ch s EV/EBITDA bnh qun ca cc doanh nghip kinh doanh

    vng bc qu trn th gii: 13.3

    Chng ti kt hp hai phng php nh gi trn

    vi t trng 50% cho phng php DDM v 50% cho phng php

    EV/EBITDA v cho ra kt qu nh sau:

    STT Ch tiuK hoch 2013

    (t ng)

    So snh 2012

    % +/-

    1 Doanh thu trang sc vng 4,394 +20%

    2 Doanh thu trang sc bc 174 +12%

    3 Doanh thu vng ming 3,230 +24%

    4 Li nhun gp t H SXKD 650 +18%

    5 Doanh thu t H Ti chnh 65 =56%

    6 LNTT (cha hp nht) 280 =100%

    7 LNST (cha hp nht 226 =100%

    8 LNTT hp nht 296 =96%

    9 LNST hp nht 241 =95%

    C tc 20%

    Doanh nghipGi tr doanh

    nghip (triu USD)Quc Tch

    EV/EBITDA

    2013 (F)

    Tsutsumi Jewelry Co. Ltd 74.5 Nht Bn 11.00

    Damiani S.p.A 149.3 Italia 17.02

    Kingold Jewelry 81.8 M 9.21

    Pranda Jewelry PCL 104.1 n 15.43

    Zhejiang Ming Jewelry 543.1 Trung Quc 13.82

    13.30Bnh qun

    PHN TCH K THUT V QUAN IM U T

    Gi c phiu PNJ ang dao ng

    trong vng 27.5. y l vng

    kh hp dn cho nh u t c

    bn trong trung v di hn khi

    hi t c ng MA10, MA50,

    Middle Line ca Bolinger Bands

    v Fibonacci Retracment 23.6%

    (25/12/2012 - 20/5/2013), bo

    hiu cho s bt u ca mt chu

    k tng mi trong trung hn.

    Theo quan im ca chng ti,

    vng gi mua ph hp cho c

    phiu PNJ l vng 27.0 - 28.0.

    Thi hn u t: 6 thng - 1 nm

    Gi mc tiu 1: 38.0

    Gi mc tiu 2: 50.0

    Phng php nh gi T trng

    DDM 28,571 50%

    EV/EBITDA 72,595 50%

    Gi c phiu PNJ 50,583 ng/cp

  • Bo co phn tch - CTCP Vng bc qu Ph Nhun (PNJ)

    Trang 8 Dong A Securities - www.dag.vn

    T CHC THC HIN BO CO

    Cng ty Chng khon Ngn hng ng (gi tt l DAS) l thnh vin ca Tp on ti chnh Ngn

    hng ng , hin l mt trong cc nh ch ti chnh ln nht Vit Nam. DAS cng l mt thnh vin

    chnh thc ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam, v ang i u trong mt s dch v ti chnh c cng

    ngh cao. DAS hin l c ng ln ca nhiu cng ty, v l ch s hu ca Cng ty qun l Qu u t

    hnh, T vn ti chnh v T vn u t, Lu k chng khon

    H thng chi nhnh

    Tr s chnh: -

    Fax: (848) 38218.713

    Chi nhnh H Ni:

    Fax: (844) 3944.5178

    Chi nhnh Ch Ln:

    Fax: (848) 3853.9624

    Chi nhnh Vng Tu:

    -

    Fax: (064) 3584.899

    Phng giao dch Qun 10:

    Fax: (84.8) 3979.7696

    KHUYN CO

    bo co ny.

    .