Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Program for the Study of the Chinese Economy 贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所 中国经济研究项目

ABOUT BFI-CHINA

A Critical Time for Economic ResearchOver the past three decades, China has experienced a period of unparalleled, historic change. The country’s economic growth has been nothing less than astonishing, with per capita income increasing by 900 percent since 1990, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into the global middle class. Today, China is the world’s second-largest economy and leading manufacturer, an economic leader whose markets are increasingly globally integrated and whose companies are among the world’s most innovative and dynamic.

Despite this progress, Chinese policymakers now confront a set of complex challenges as they seek to catalyze a second economic transformation that ushers in a new era of sustainable growth. How can China’s government and financial institutions, which have been a critical element of its unique economic success, evolve to become more efficient? What is the future of Chinese financial markets? And how can China maintain access to the affordable energy needed to power growth without suffering the effects of dangerously high levels of pollution?

关于BFI-CHINA

经济研究的关键时刻

在过去的三十年里，中国经历了无与伦比的历史性变革。中国的经济增长令人惊叹，人均收入自1990年以来增长了900%，使数亿人摆脱贫困进入全球中产阶级行列。 如今，中国已发展成为世界第二大经济体、制造大国和经济领先国家，中国市场正加速全球一体化进程，中国企业也跻身全球最具创新性和活力的企业之列。

尽管取得了这样的进步，中国的政策制定者力求推动第二次经济转型，迈入可持续发展的新时代，但同时也面临一系列复杂的挑战。中国政府和金融机构是中国取得独特经济成功的关键因素，现在应该如何发展以更加提高效率？中国金融市场的未来前景如何？ 中国如何才能继续获得推动增长所必需的、能够负担得起的能源，而无需遭受严重污染？

ABOUT BFI-CHINA

A World-Class Research EffortThe Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago (BFI) serves as a platform for the dynamic University of Chicago economics community. Uniting faculty from the Booth School of Business, the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, the Harris School of Public Policy, and the Law School, BFI supports new research that expands society’s understanding of economic challenges and identifies solutions.

Working in close partnership with Chinese researchers and research institutions, BFI aims to develop new insights on the critical economic issues facing Chinese policymakers today. The vehicle for this ambitious effort is BFI-China, a first-of-its kind effort to support University of Chicago economists with research interests in China and to create new opportunities for expanding the world-class community of scholars producing new research focused on the Chinese economy.

To support research that produces timely, relevant insights, BFI-China is organized around three targeted research initiatives. Each one of these initiatives will draw from unparalleled skills, knowledge, and expertise of University of Chicago faculty working in collaboration with Chinese institutional partners. · Chinese Model of Economic Growth · Chinese Financial Markets and Banking Systems (MFRI-China) · Chinese Energy and Environmental Policy (EPIC-China)

关于BFI-CHINA

世界一流的研究工作

芝加哥大学的贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所为充满活力的芝加哥大学经济学界提供了一个平台。该研究所将布斯商学院、肯尼斯·C·格里芬经济系、哈里斯公共政策学院和法学院的教授们联合在一起，支持开展创新研究，增进社会对经济挑战的了解并寻求解决方案。

贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所与中国研究人员和研究机构密切合作，旨在为当今中国政策制定者面临的重要经济问题提供新的真知灼见，并为此成立了贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所中国经济研究项目(BFI-China)。这是一项目标远大的开创性工作，旨在支持研究中国经济的芝加哥大学经济学家们，并创造新的机遇，扩大以中国经济为新研究重点的世界一流学者群体。

为了支持开展研究，并提供具有时效性和相关性的真知灼见，BFI-China围绕三个有针对性的研究计划开展工作。每个研究计划都将依托芝加哥大学教授们无与伦比的技能、学识和专长，并与中国的合作伙伴院校携手并进。· 中国经济增长模式 · 中国金融市场和银行体系（中国宏观金融研究计划）

· 中国能源和环境政策（芝加哥大学能源政策研究所中国项目）

Groundbreaking Partnership As part of its commitment to partner with leading Chinese institutions, the University of Chicago in 2018 will sign a historic agreement with Tsinghua University to create the Tsinghua University-University of Chicago Joint Research Center for Economics and Finance.

The Research Center is a first-of-its-kind partnership committed to analytic rigor and the broad dissemination of academic ideas. In addition to facilitating new research, faculty and doctoral student exchanges will occur between Tsinghua and the University of Chicago, and researchers from both institutions will meet regularly to share results and discuss areas of mutual interest that will spur joint projects and programs to inform policy and educate the general public.

开创性合作伙伴 秉承与中国顶尖院校合作的承诺，芝加哥大学将在2018年与清华大学签署合作协议，成立清华大学—芝加哥大学经济与金融联合研究中心。 该中心将秉承学术思想的严谨分析和广泛传播，与清华大学开展前所未有的合作。 除了开展新研究，清华大学和芝加哥大学之间将进行教师和博士生交流，两所院校的研究人员将定期举行会议，分享研究成果并讨论共同感兴趣的领域，推动联合项目和计划，为决策者提供建议并开展公众教育。

Saieh Hall for Economics, University of Chicago

School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University

China is a vast country that has changed rapidly over the past four decades. The Research Initiative on the Chinese Model of Economic Growth will conduct ground-breaking research to provide a better understanding of the factors driving China’s extraordinary economic expansion. A second objective of this Initiative will be access for Chinese and US researchers to reliable data about the impacts of its institutional structures on economic growth.

To facilitate this work, the BFI, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Tsinghua University have formed a collaborative research project to explore the role of various institutions in China’s economic growth model. This collaboration will leverage a unique combination of Chinese administrative and commercial data to produce rigorous, world-class research.

Key questions this Initiative will explore include:

1. What are the costs and benefits of the current system?

2. How could the institutional foundation of the China Model impact long-run business growth?

3. How can current institutions at the state and local levels work better in terms of economic efficiency?

FRONTIER RESEARCH

Research Initiative on the Chinese Model of Economic Growth

FACULTY DIRECTOR

Chang-Tai Hsieh, The Phyllis and Irwin Winkelried Professor of Economics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

“This partnership will include collaborations with both the Chinese government and the private sector to develop a systematic approach for analyzing real-time data from multiple sources. The goal is to improve the measurement of China’s current economic status, which will hopefully make the Chinese economy more transparent.”

— Chang-Tai Hsieh

前沿研究

中国经济增长模式研究计划

学术领头人

谢长泰, 芝加哥大学布斯商学院的菲利斯和欧文-温克里德讲席经济学教授

中国是一个幅员辽阔的国家，在过去四十年中发生了迅速变化。中国经济增长模式研究计划将开展突破性研究，以更好地了解中国经济非同寻常增长的驱动因素。这一研究计划的第二个目标是让中美两国的研究人员获得可靠的数据，以了解中国的体制结构对经济增长的影响。

为了促进这项工作，贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所、香港中文大学和清华大学建立了一个合作研究项目，探讨各种体制在中国经济增长模式中发挥的作用。这一合作研究项目将充分利用中国行政和商业数据的独特组合，开展严谨的、具备世界一流水平的研究工作。

该研究计划将探讨的主要问题包括：

1. 当前体系的成本和效益如何？

2. 中国模式的体制基础如何影响企业的长期成长？

3. 现有国家和地方层面的机制如何在经济效率上更好地发挥作用？

“这种伙伴关系将包括与中国政府和私营部门合作，开发系统方法对多种来源的实时数据进行分析。旨在改善对中国当前经济状况的衡量模式，希望以此促使中国经济更加透明。”

— 谢长泰

China has historically relied on state-owned financial institutions to fund its rapidly expanding economy. These institutions, for various organizational and economic reasons, have been slow to recognize investment opportunities. Since these institutions have not always embraced new opportunities, in the last five years or so, the door has opened to a shadow banking system that is not only fueling growth but has also increased the overall risk exposure of the Chinese economy with slight oversight. Starting in late 2017 there has been tighter regulation on shadow banking and more emphasis on deleveraging. The recent tightening of regulations poses new challenges to the nascent Chinese financial markets, especially in an environment in which the high growth in the past will be challenging to maintain. Such regulations will shape the availability of financing and the behavior of financial markets in China for decades to come.

The Macro Financial Research Initiative (MFRI-China) will explore financial market evolution, banking reform, debt, and reform of state-owned enterprises. Researchers will investigate the many questions facing China’s increasingly dynamic financial markets—from privacy issues to credit worthiness and systemic risk—including the emerging challenges facing China’s regulators. This research will provide important insight for Chinese policymakers, as well as build resources for future research.

As regulators are growing their new teeth in China, it becomes of particular value to have researchers explore systematically the costs and benefits of the proposed restrictions and to study the potential impacts of financial regulation on the future growth of the Chinese economy.

FRONTIER RESEARCH

Macro Financial Research Initiative (MFRI-China)

FACULTY DIRECTOR

Lars Peter Hansen, David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor in Economics, University of Chicago

Zhiguo He, Professor of Finance, Booth School of Business; Director of the Fama-Miller Center, University of Chicago

“China has demonstrated an amazing ability to innovate within its financial sector, especially in terms of financial technology. However, such innovation is not the norm among its state-owned financial institutions. While the rise of a shadow banking system can help fill the gaps left by a slow-to-respond state infrastructure, it can also give rise to risks for which China’s regulators are unprepared to face.”

— Lars Peter Hansen

前沿研究

中国宏观金融研究计划

学术领头人

拉尔斯·彼得·汉森, 芝加哥大学的大卫· 洛克菲勒杰出服务讲席经济学教授 何治国, 芝加哥大学布斯商学院的金融学教授、法马-米勒中心主任

中国历来依靠国有金融机构为快速增长的经济提供资金。出于各种组织上和经济上的原因，这些机构在识别投资机会上行动迟缓。由于这些机构并不总是拥抱新机遇，在过去五年左右的时间里，影子银行体系大行其道，一方面推动了经济增长，但却在监管不足的情况下增加了中国经济的整体风险。从2017年底开始，对影子银行的监管越来越严格，并越来越重视去杠杆化。最近收紧的监管措施给新兴的中国金融市场带来了新的挑战，尤其在过去的高增长将难以为继的情况下。此类监管措施将影响中国未来几十年的融资可及性以及金融市场行为。

中国宏观金融研究计划将探索金融市场的演变、银行业改革、债务和国有企业改革。从隐私问题到信誉和系统性风险，研究人员将调查中国日益活跃的金融市场所面临的诸多问题，包括中国监管机构面临的新挑战。这项研究将为中国政策制定者提供重要见解，并为未来的研究积累资源。

随着中国监管机构的逐步成熟，变得日益重要的一点就是让研究者系统地探讨拟采取限制措施的成本和效益，并研究金融监管对中国经济未来增长的潜在影响。

“中国在金融领域表现出惊人的创新能力，特别是在金融科技方面。然而，这类创新在国有金融机构中并非准则。虽然影子银行体系的兴起有助于填补反应迟缓的国有金融体系所留下的空白，但也可能导致中国监管机构对面临的风险准备不足。”

— 拉尔斯·彼得·汉森

China’s rapid expansion in energy use has powered remarkable economic growth and improved living standards, but it has also increased air pollution that is negatively impacting human health and carbon dioxide emissions that are contributing to climate change.

Over the past four years, China has made incredible progress in its “war on pollution,” with levels dropping by 20 to 40 percent in major population centers. Nonetheless, pollution levels remain higher than desired, inflicting significant health costs on Chinese citizens and the economy more broadly. Further progress is needed. Yet the next steps must focus on leveraging innovative policies and market mechanisms to reduce pollution and carbon emissions in the most cost-effective ways possible.

The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) has developed a successful model for addressing these and other energy and environmental challenges. At its core, the EPIC model focuses on cutting-edge research conducted in partnership with local, regional, and national governments, a process that ensures research insights can have immediate impact. Working with a number of Chinese partners, EPIC-China will focus on ground-breaking research to ensure access to inexpensive and reliable energy sources, while also advancing Chinese policymakers’ goals of inexpensive pollution reductions.

“EPIC-China would take the established research and existing partnerships of UChicago faculty to the next level, building a wide-ranging network of government partners and working to translate a deeper understanding of the structure and impacts of China’s energy system into actionable solutions for policymakers, resulting in a long-lasting, positive impact in China.” — Michael Greenstone

FRONTIER RESEARCH

Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, China (EPIC-China)

FACULTY DIRECTORS

Michael Greenstone, Milton Friedman Professor in Economics, the College, and the Harris School; Director, Becker Friedman Institute and Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago

Kevin Mo, Senior Advisor Guojun He, Senior Researcher

前沿研究

芝加哥大学能源政策研究所中国项目

学术领头人

迈克尔·格林斯通， 芝加哥大学本科生学院和哈里斯公共政策学院的米尔顿·弗里德曼讲席经济学教授、贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所以及芝加哥大学能源政策研究所所长 莫争春，资深顾问

何国俊，资深研究员

中国能源消费的快速扩张，推动了显著的经济增长和生活水平的提高，但也加重了不利于人体健康的大气污染，并增加了导致气候变化的二氧化碳排放。

在过去四年中，中国“向污染宣战”，取得了令人瞩目的进展，主要城市的污染水平下降了20%-40%。尽管如此，污染情况仍然高于期望值，让中国民众和整个经济付出了巨大的健康代价。中国的污染治理需要取得更大的进展。 然而，下一步必须着重于创新政策和市场机制，以最具成本效益的方式减少污染和碳排放。

芝加哥大学能源政策研究所开发了一个成功的模型来应对这些问题以及其他能源和环境挑战。其核心侧重于与地方、区域和中央政府合作开展的前沿研究，这种方式可以确保研究成果能立即产生影响。芝加哥大学能源政策研究所中国项目将与众多中国合作伙伴携手合作，重点开展确保获得廉价可靠能源的突破性研究，同时助力中国政策制定者实现以较低代价减少污染的目标。

“芝加哥大学能源政策研究所中国项目将把芝加哥大学教授们的已有研究和现有的合作关系提升到新的水平，建立广泛的政府合作伙伴网络，致力于把对中国能源体系结构和影响的更深入的洞察转化为提供给政策制定者的可行解决方案，从而在中国产生持久的积极影响。” — 迈克尔·格林斯通

“The groundbreaking partnership between Tsinghua University and the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics (BFI) exemplifies BFI’s mission of supporting and encouraging frontier research with important societal impact. This research will be shared not only with researchers around the world to inspire continued analysis and inquiry, but importantly will also be shared with Chinese policymakers to inform better policy outcomes for China’s institutions and its citizens.” Robert Zimmer President, University of Chicago

“清华大学与芝加哥大学贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所之间这种开创性的合作伙伴关系完美地体现了研究所的使命：支持和鼓励前沿研究，并对现实世界产生深远影响。这项研究不会在纯学术的真空中进行，而是与中国政策制定者分享成果，向中国的公共机构和民众显示更好的政策结果，为全世界的研究人员提供资讯，以激发持续的分析和不断的探索。” 罗伯特·齐默 芝加哥大学校长

Tsinghua University- University of Chicago Joint Research Center for Economics and Finance 清华大学--芝加哥大学经济与金融 联合研究中心

Steering Committee 指导委员会 Co-Chairs 联席主席 BAI Chong-En Mansfield Freeman Chair Professor Dean of the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University 白重恩 清华大学经济管理学院院长、曼斯菲尔德·弗里曼讲席教授 Michael Greenstone The Milton Friedman Professor in Economics, the College, and the Harris School, University of Chicago 迈克尔·格林斯通 芝加哥大学本科生学院和哈里斯公共政策学院米尔顿·弗里德曼讲席经济学教授 Members 委员 ZHONG Xiaohan Associate professor and chair of the Department of Economics; Associate Dean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University 钟笑寒 清华大学经济管理学院副院长、经济系系主任、副教授 YANG Zhishu Professor and chair of the Department of Finance, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University 杨之曙 清华大学金融系系主任、教授 Chang-Tai Hsieh Phyllis and Irwin Winkelried Professor of Economics and PCL Faculty Scholar, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago 谢长泰 芝加哥大学布斯商学院菲利斯和欧文温克里德经济学教授 及PCL学院学者

1126 E. 59th Street Chicago, IL 60637 · Main: 773.702.5599 · bfi.uchicago.edu

ABOUT THE BECKER FRIEDMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS

The Becker Friedman Institute for Economics serves as a hub for cutting-edge analysis and research across the entire University of Chicago economics community, uniting researchers from the Booth School of Business, the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, the Harris School of Public Policy, and the Law School in an unparalleled effort to uncover new ways of thinking about economics. We put those ideas into action by translating rigorous research into accessible and relevant formats, and proactively disseminating it to key decision-makers around the world. More information can be found at bfi.uchicago.edu. 贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所

贝克尔-弗里德曼经济研究所作为整个芝加哥大学经济学界的前沿分析和研究中心，将布斯商学院、肯尼斯·C·格里芬经济系、哈里斯公共政策学院和法学院的研究人员联合起来，通过前所未有的努力来发现经济学的新思维方式。我们把严谨的研究转化为容易理解和实用性的形式，最终将这些思考付诸行动，并积极传播给世界各地的重要决策者。有关更多信息，请访问bfi.uchicago.edu。