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Beijing office market report 北京写字楼市场报告 Q1 2014 2014 年第一季度 OFFICE MARKET 写字楼市场 RESEARCH 研究报告

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Page 1: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

Beijing office

market report

北京写字楼市场报告 Q1 2014

2014 年第一季度

OFFICE MARKET

写字楼市场

RESEARCH

研究报告

Page 2: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

2

Q1 2014 beijing OFFICE MARKET REPORT

Beijing Grade-A office monitor

Indicator Q1 2014 figure QoQ change Outlook

(Q2 2014)

New supply 0 Sqm - ↗

Rental 377 RMB / sqm / month 1.1% ↔

Vacancy rate 6.0% 1.0 percentage point ↔

Capital value 57,269 RMB / sqm 1.0% ↗

Yield 6.0% 0.1 percentage point ↘

Source: Knight Frank

Highlights

Real estate investment edged up by 3.2% to

RMB24.36 billion during the first two months of

2014. Retail sales recorded at RMB140.23 billion,

an increase of merely 3%, signaling slower

economic growth.

Office rents have lost momentum due to weak

demand from international firms and slower

domestic economic growth. In the first quarter,

the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell

another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per

sqm per month.

There was no new Grade-A office supply in the

first quarter. The vacancy rate rose 1 percentage

point to 6.0%, which was the second consecutive

quarterly rise. However, it was still a low level.

Rents of Grade-A offices in Beijing continued to fall in the first quarter of 2014 due to macro-economic

slowdown. Market vacancy rates rose slightly. Rents are expected to experience slight adjustments in the

second quarter.

The average transaction price of Grade-A offices

remained on the upward track, gaining 1.0%

quarter on quarter in the first quarter. It was the

19th consecutive quarterly increase since the

second quarter of 2009, with an accumulated

growth rate of 111%. However, the growth rate

started to narrow down to around 1% in the

fourth quarter of 2013, much slower compared

with those in previous quarters.

Two new office projects are expected to launch

in the second quarter, providing 100,000 sqm of

Grade-A office space. The vacancy rate is

anticipated to remain at around 5% and rents

are expected to experience slight adjustments in

the second quarter.

Page 3: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

3

KnightFrank.com.cn

Source: Knight Frank

Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation

Real estate investment in Beijing

edged up 3.2% year on year to

RMB24.36 billion during the first

two months of 2014. Retail sales

recorded at RMB140.23 billion, an

increase of merely 3%, signaling

economic growth slowdown.

Office rents have lost momentum

due to weak demand from

international firms and tepid

domestic economic growth. In the

first quarter, the average rent of

Grade-A offices in Beijing fell

another 1.1% quarter on quarter

to RMB377 per sqm per month,

which was the fourth consecutive

drop since the second quarter of

2013.

The average rents in CBD and

Financial Street fell 1.1% and 1.0%

to RMB415 and RMB483 per sqm

per month, respectively. Rents in

East Second Ring Road and

Lufthansa both went up 1.9% to

RMB368 and RMB321 per sqm per

month, respectively. Rents in the

Zhongguancun area remained

stable.

Grade-A office vacancy rate is

anticipated to remain low in the

second quarter. The probability of

a significant drop in rental levels is

slim. Rents are anticipated to

experience slight adjustments in

the second quarter.

Source: Knight Frank

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014

Beijing Grade-A office market indicators, Q1 2014

Submarket

Rent

(RMB / sqm/

month)

Rent %

change

(QoQ)

Vacancy

rate

Vacancy rate

percentage

point change

(QoQ)

CBD 415 1.1 7.9% 1.2

Lufthansa 321 1.9 7.5% 1.5

Financial Street 483 1.0 0% ↔

East Second Ring

Road 368 1.9 2.7% ↔

Zhongguancun 310 0.7 4.3% 0.1

Beijing major Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q1 2014

District Building Floor / unit Area

(sqm)

Rent

(RMB / sqm /

month)

Chaoyang Central Place Mid floor unit 859 400

Chaoyang Phoenix Place

Tower High floor unit 600 380

Xicheng

Windland

International

Financial

Center

High floor unit 600 740

Haidian Raycom

Infotech Park A High floor unit 230 370

RENTS

Beijing Grade-A office rental index

2013Q1=100

Page 4: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

4

Q1 2014 beijing OFFICE MARKET REPORT

Shanghai commercial land transaction volume and value (Q1 2010-Q3 2013)

There was no new supply in the

Grade-A office market in Beijing

during the first quarter. Two new

office projects are expected to launch

in the second quarter, providing

100,000 sqm office space.

The average vacancy rate rose 1

percentage point to 6.0% in the first

quarter. The Financial Street area

remained fully occupied. In the CBD

and Lufthansa areas, the vacancy

rates increased by 1.2 and 1.5

percentage points to 7.9% and 7.5%,

respectively. Other major commercial

areas did not see significant changes

in their vacancy rates.

Beijing Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy rate

Beijing Grade-A office price index

2008 Q1=100

Source: Knight Frank

The average transaction price of

Grade-A offices remained on the

upward track, gaining 1.0% quarter on

quarter in the first quarter. It was the

19th consecutive quarterly growth since

the second quarter of 2009, an

accumulated growth of 111%.

Capital yields went down another 0.1

percentage point to 6.0% during the

first quarter.

Beijing major Grade-A office sales transactions, Q1 2014

District Building Floor Area (sqm) Price (RMB / sqm)

Shijingshan Galaxy Wealth Center n/a 350 51,500

Chaoyang R&F City n/a 150 109,500

Chaoyang Meilishan n/a 290 32,600

Source: Knight Frank

Sales and investment

Supply and demand

Source: Knight Frank

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0%

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10%

15%

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25%

-

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900

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1,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F

'000 sq m

Supply(LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy Rate(RHS)

Page 5: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

5

KnightFrank.com.cn

由于国内经济发展放缓, 第一季度北京市甲级写字楼租金水平继续小幅下跌,市场空置率小幅上

调,预计二季度租金水平将继续小幅调整。

1-2月,北京市完成房地产开发投资人民币243.6亿元,

同比仅增长3.2%。全市实现社会消费品零售额人民币

1,402.3亿元,同比增长3%,增速明显放缓。

由于国内经济发展增速放缓,同时外资企业需求疲软,

写字楼租金水平上升动力缺失,第一季度北京市甲级

写字楼租金水平延续上个季度的下跌趋势,环比小幅

下调1.1% 到每月每平方米人民币377元。

第一季度,市场没有新增供应,平均空置率上调1个百

分点到6.0%,虽然市场空置率连续第二个季度上调,

但依然保持在较低水平。

从投资市场来看,一季度写字楼成交价格继续保持于

上升轨道,环比上涨1.0%,这是自2009年第二季度以

来连续第19个季度的环比上涨,累积增幅达111%。但

是,从2013年第四个季度以来,成交价格的增速已经

放缓到1.0%左右,明显低于之前的季度增幅。

第二季度预计有两个甲级写字楼项目入市,为市场增

加10万平方米的面积,市场空置率预计将保持在5%上

下,基于此,预计北京甲级写字楼租金水平将在第二

季度继续小幅调整。

北京甲级写字楼观察

指标 2014 年第一季数字 按季变幅 预测 (2014 第二季)

新增供应 0 平方米 - ↗

租金 377每月每平方米人民币 1.1% ↔

空置率 6.0% 1.0 个百分点 ↔

价格 57,269 每平方米人民币 1.0% ↗

投资回报率 6.0% 0.1 个百分点 ↘

资料來源︰萊坊

焦点

Page 6: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

6

2014年第一季度

北京写字楼市场报告

资料来源:莱坊

北京甲级写字楼租金指数 2013Q1=100

资料来源:莱坊 注︰所有成交均有待落实。

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014

北京甲级写字楼主要市场指标,2014 年第一季度

区域

租金

(人民币 /

平方米 /月)

租金

环比变幅(%) 空置率

空置率

环比变幅(百分点)

中央商务区 415 1.1 7.9% 1.2

燕莎 321 1.9 7.5% 1.5

金融街 483 1.0 0% ↔

东二环 368 1.9 2.7% ↔

中关村 310 0.7 4.3% 0.1

北京甲级写字楼主要租赁成交,2014 年第一季度

区域 项目 楼层 面积

(平方米)

租金

(人民币 / 平方米

/ 月)

朝阳 华贸中心 中区 859 400

朝阳 凤凰置地广场 高区 600 380

西城 英蓝国际中心 高区 600 740

海淀 融科资讯中心

A座 高区 230 370

租金

及价格 1-2月,北京市完成房地产开发投资人

民币243.6亿元,同比仅增长3.2%。全

市实现社会消费品零售额人民币

1,402.3亿元,同比增长3%,增速明显

放缓。

鉴于国内经济发展增速放缓,同时外资

企业需求疲软,写字楼租金水平上升动

力缺失,第一季度北京市甲级写字楼租

金水平延续上个季度的下跌趋势,环比

小幅下调1.1% 到每月每平方米人民币

377元。这是自2013年第二季度以来连

续第四个季度环比下跌。

分区域来看,中央商务区和金融街的租

金水平分别下降了1.1% 和1.0%至每月

每平方米人民币415元和483元,东二环

和燕莎区域均上调了1.9%至分别每月

每平方米人民币368和321元,中关村区

域租金水平持平。

目前市场空置率仍然偏低,基于此,预

计北京甲级写字楼租金水平大幅下跌

的可能性较小,预计第二季度继续小幅

调整。

Page 7: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

7

KnightFrank.com.cn

第一季度写字楼成交价格继续保持于上升轨

道,环比上涨 1.0%,这是自 2009 年第二季

度以来连续第 19 个季度的环比上涨,累积增

幅达 111%。

甲级写字楼平均收益率继续下降 0.1 个百分

点至 6.0%。

北京甲级写字楼供应量、吸纳量及空置率

0%

50%

-

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014F2015F

'000 sq m

供应(左轴) 净吸纳(左轴)

资料来源:莱坊

北京甲级写字楼价格指数

北京甲级写字楼主要销售成交,2014 年第一季度

区域 项目 楼层 面积(平方米) 成交价格(人民币 / 平方米)

石景山 银河财智中心 n/a 350

51,500

朝阳 富力城 n/a 150

109,500

朝阳 美利山 n/a 290

32,600

资料来源:莱坊

供应与需求

第一季度,北京市甲级写字楼市场没有新增

供应。二季度预计有两个写字楼项目入市,

提供约 10 万平方米的新增面积。市场供应量

偏低。

第一季度市场平均空置率上浮 1 个百分点到

6.0%。分区域来看,金融街区域的写字楼持

续满租。中央商务区写字楼空置率上升 1.2 个

百分点至 7.9%,燕莎区域上升 1.5 个百分点

至 7.5%,其他区域没有显著变化。

销售与投资

资料来源:莱坊

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F

'000 sq m

供应(左轴) 净吸纳(左轴) 空置率(右轴)

2008 Q1=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Page 8: Beijing office market report · domestic economic growth. In the first quarter, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per sqm

8

2014年第一季度

北京写字楼市场报告

Research & Consultancy

Thomas Lam

Director, Head of Research & Consultancy

Greater China

+852 2846 4819

[email protected]

Regina Yang

Director, Head of Research & Consultancy

Shanghai

+86 21 6032 1728

[email protected]

Jingjing Zhang

Associate Director,

Head of Research & Consultancy

Beijing

+86 10 6113 8022

[email protected]

Beijing office leasing

Major Chen

Associate Director,

Commercial Services, Beijing

+86 10 6113 8032

[email protected]

General enquiries

East & Central China

Graham Zink

Managing Director

+86 21 6032 1700

[email protected]

North China

Hengky Nayoan

Managing Director

+86 10 6113 8011

[email protected]

South China

Clement Leung

Executive Director

+852 2846 9593

[email protected]

研究及咨询部

林浩文

董事及研究及咨询部主管,大中华区

+852 2846 4819

[email protected]

杨悦晨

董事及研究及咨询部主管,上海

+86 21 6032 1728

[email protected]

张婧婧

副董事及研究及咨询部主管,北京

+86 10 6113 8022

[email protected]

北京写字楼租赁

陈晓

副董事,商业物业代理部,北京

+86 10 6113 8032

[email protected]

一般查询

华东及华中

葛汉文

董事总经理

+86 21 6032 1700

[email protected]

华北 何金亮

董事总经理

+86 10 6113 8011

[email protected]

华南 梁伟明

执行董事

+852 2846 9593

[email protected]

RESEARCH

研究报告

Knight Frank Research provides strategic

advice, consultancy services and forecasting

to a wide range of clients worldwide,

including developers and investors, as well as

financial and corporate institutions. All

recognise the need for the provision of

expert independent advice, customised to

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Our worldwide research reports are also

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information only and is subject to change without notice. All

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This document and the material contained in it is the

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包括发展商、投资者、金融机构和企业机构

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© 莱坊2014

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行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性。

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