berth-kuliah pelabuhan maritim,, bu erika,,, i

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    INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

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    GROWING DEMANDGROWING DEMAND

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    EachEach transportationtransportation modemode requiresrequiresspacespace forfor::

    Access to the port area,

    A place to parktransportation units,

    both full and empty,

    A place to service theunits,

    A place to load/unloadthe units,

    A place to store loads inkeeping withtransportationarrival/departure rates.

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    FORECASTING TECHNIQUESFORECASTING TECHNIQUES

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    TRAFFIC FORECASTINGTRAFFIC FORECASTING

    The essence of port traffic foresting :The essence of port traffic foresting :

    What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ?What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ?

    How will the commodities be packaged & carried ?How will the commodities be packaged & carried ?

    What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?

    The most useful control statistic to each terminal :The most useful control statistic to each terminal :

    The total tonnage handledThe total tonnage handled

    The average ship turnThe average ship turn--round timeround time

    The average tonnage loaded / discharge per shipThe average tonnage loaded / discharge per ship

    The volume of trafficThe volume of traffic

    The % of ship using cranes or rampsThe % of ship using cranes or ramps

    The average ship lengthThe average ship length

    The maximum draughtThe maximum draught

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    Trend of Traffic:

    The fact that over the last few years a particular class of traffic

    has been increasing does not in itself mean that the trend will

    continue. Trends can reverse themselves very quickly.

    In developing countries, the reasons of traffic increase will be

    one of the following:

    a) Traffic is directly dependent on the GNP;b) Traffic in a specific commodity or product has been

    deliberately developed or run down (e.g. national self-

    sufficiency in a major foodstuff; development of a new

    industry or of mines);

    c) A gradual shift in regional centers of production orconsumption is occurring;

    d) A gradual shift in transport technology or routing is occurring

    (from break-bulk shipment to containers; from maritime to

    overland transport, etc.).

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    FORECASTING PROCEDUREFORECASTING PROCEDURE

    1. Analyze past traffic1. Analyze past traffic

    1.1.1.1. Define route, etc.Define route, etc.

    1.2. Choose cargo classification1.2. Choose cargo classification

    1.3. Tabulate1.3. Tabulate

    1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes

    1.5. Extract seasonal effects1.5. Extract seasonal effects

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    2. Review market influences on traffic2. Review market influences on traffic

    and technological trendsand technological trends

    2.1. Survey shippers opinions2.1. Survey shippers opinions

    (public and private)(public and private)

    2.2. Survey shipping companies plans2.2. Survey shipping companies plans

    3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates

    3.1. GNP3.1. GNP-- linked cargoeslinked cargoes

    3.2. Special cargoes3.2. Special cargoes

    3.3. Regional/hinterland trends3.3. Regional/hinterland trends

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    4. Investigate expected traffic4. Investigate expected traffic--influencinginfluencingeventsevents

    4.1. Industry plans4.1. Industry plans

    4.2. Agriculture plans4.2. Agriculture plans

    4.3. Transport links/transit policies4.3. Transport links/transit policies

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    5. Combine all information into alternative5. Combine all information into alternative

    growth and technology scenariosgrowth and technology scenarios

    5.1. Identify principal scenario themes5.1. Identify principal scenario themes

    5.2. Combine all data for each theme5.2. Combine all data for each theme5.3. Remove numerical inconsistencies5.3. Remove numerical inconsistencies

    5.4. Write scenarios5.4. Write scenarios

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    6. For each scenario, tabulate annual6. For each scenario, tabulate annualforecast in each traffic classforecast in each traffic class

    6.1 Tonnages (weight tons)6.1 Tonnages (weight tons)

    6.2 Numbers/sizes of ships6.2 Numbers/sizes of ships

    6.3 Seasonal effects6.3 Seasonal effects

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    FIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDUREFIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDURE

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    FIGURE: SIMPLIFIED FORECASTINGPROCEDUREFIGURE: SIMPLIFIED FORECASTINGPROCEDURE

    Simplified forecasting procedure for minor investmentsSimplified forecasting procedure for minor investments

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    RECORDINGOF TRAFFICRECORDINGOF TRAFFICDENSITIESDENSITIES--CARGO VOLUMESCARGO VOLUMES

    TheThe recordingrecording ofof traffictraffic densitiesdensities andand cargocargo volumesvolumes shouldshould

    givegive aa detaileddetailed accountaccount ofof CargoCargo andand passengerpassenger handlinghandling

    byby dayday ofof week,week, hourhour ofof day,day, ModeMode ofof transportationtransportation toto andand

    fromfrom thethe port,port, forfor thethe followingfollowing::

    Oceangoing tramp shipsOceangoing tramp ships

    Foreign liner shipsForeign liner ships Domestic liner shipsDomestic liner ships

    FerriesFerries

    TrucksTrucks

    BusesBuses RailwayRailway

    Possibly aircraftPossibly aircraft

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    The annual turnover in the port should be ifThe annual turnover in the port should be ifpossible be subdivided into the followingpossible be subdivided into the following

    categories:categories:

    Bulk/general cargoBulk/general cargo TransTrans--shipment ship/shipshipment ship/ship

    TransTrans--shipment ship/railshipment ship/rail

    Goods carried by coastalGoods carried by coastal

    ships/trampsships/tramps

    Goods/general cargoGoods/general cargohandled at terminalhandled at terminal

    Storage timeStorage time

    Type of storageType of storage

    Customs clearanceCustoms clearance

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    ItIt isis essentialessential toto specifyspecify ifif thethe goodsgoods

    requirerequire specialspecial handlinghandling equipment,equipment, suchsuchasas ;;

    Loading and unloading equipment.Loading and unloading equipment.

    Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary).Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary).

    Fork lift truck requirement.Fork lift truck requirement.

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    Groups of goodsGroups of goods

    1. Agricultural products1. Agricultural products

    2. Coal, other solid material fuels2. Coal, other solid material fuels

    3. Petroleum and petroleum products3. Petroleum and petroleum products4. Ore and waste of ore and steel4. Ore and waste of ore and steel

    5. Metal products5. Metal products

    6. Cement, building materials6. Cement, building materials

    7. Chemicals, fertilizers7. Chemicals, fertilizers

    8. Machinery, manufactured articles8. Machinery, manufactured articles

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    Classical cargoesClassical cargoes

    Liquid and dry bulk cargoesLiquid and dry bulk cargoes

    1. Building materials1. Building materials

    2. Petroleum and derivatives2. Petroleum and derivatives3. Ores3. Ores

    4. Chemicals4. Chemicals

    5.Fertilizers, etc5.Fertilizers, etc

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    Traffic by ship:Traffic by ship:

    The conveyors for freight flow to move by the waterway are theships. The movement of the ships makes up the traffic on the

    waterway one of the specialties for the waterway traffic modeling

    is that there are great differences in the conveyors dimensions.

    The deadweight tonnage of the ships in Belgium varies from 250

    tons to 9000 tons. It is interested to know the percentage of thefreights transported by the ships with various deadweight

    tonnage.

    Some following figure show the traffic volume with the indices of:

    number of trips

    ship sailing distance

    tonnage moved

    ton. Km

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    Selected Operating Characteristics of Inland Waterway Craft

    907 2003000950290454,0001500935195

    302,0001000926175

    Galons*)Capacity (tons)Liquid Cargo

    (Tank) Barges

    1500935195

    1000926175

    Capacity (tons)Covered Dry

    cargo Barges

    3000950290

    1500930195

    350926175 Capacity (tons)Open Hopper Barges

    13501240130

    10001138120

    35093090

    Capacity (tons)Scows

    191036366

    101040257

    Capacity Railroad carsCarfloats

    1200835195900730130

    350626110

    Capacity (tons)Deck barges

    2000 to 450014 to 1530 to 34125 to 150

    1200 to 350012 to 1425 to 3095 t o 105

    800 to 120010 to 112490

    350 to 650821 to 2365 t o 80

    HorsepowerTugboats

    4000 to 60008.6401602000 to 4000834142

    1000 to 20007.630117

    HorsepowerTowboat

    Draft (ft)Breadth (ft)Length

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    DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTSDISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

    1. The first step in a systematic forecasting procedure is to examine

    the existing traffic in detail preferably on a year-by-year basis

    going back for at least three years. List the major cargos handled

    in your port based on two ways; by country of loading or

    discharge, and by major cargo class?

    2. Discuss, briefly, the aims of the market forecast in the

    identification of the potential users and the transport being usedfor the various commodities?

    3. What factors that affected changes in hinterland?

    4. Port A and B, each with its own hinterland demand for traffic of

    100,000 and 40,000 units per year respectively. When both ports

    are served by the trunk route ship (case (a)), each has only the

    standard level of quayside activity associated with its ownhinterland traffic. In case (b), the trunk road ship stops calling at

    port B and its traffic is carried in a coastal feeder vessel. In case

    (c) the feeder service to B is via land transport. What is the level

    of activity in case (a) and (b), and please draw the effect of feeder

    services on quayside activity in case (a), (b) and (c).

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    DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTSDISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

    5. Discuss, briefly, what are the technological changes that

    affect the traffic forecast?

    6. For estimating the forecast of the number of calls (the

    ship traffic forecast), and of the related size of ship, whatare the important items should be considered?

    7. What should or should not be done in helping people to

    carry out their own forecasting?

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    TABLE

    SPECIFIC TRAFFIC FORECASTING BY ROUTE (TAHUN 1985)

    Import (a)( in thousand tons )

    Origin Country

    South West Europe South East Asia Japan

    Ameri

    caNorwegia

    Swedia

    Holland

    German

    British

    French

    Total Malaysia

    Singapure

    Indonesia

    Philipine

    Total

    Liquid Bulk-CPO-Petroleum product-Sulphur (b)-Vegetable oilDry Bulk-Bricks-Iron Seed-Sulphur (b)-Cement (s)

    -Grains-OthersContainers Load dan ro/ro (c)-Celular Ship-Conventional Ship-Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load-Palletized Tin-Iron and steel product-Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk-Sacked Wheat-Sacked Cement

    -Sacked Fertilizer-Fresh Fruit-Vehicles-Machinery-General Cargo

    (a) Main Commodities figured is the ones that need separate estimation in single port. (The list is not complete)

    (b) Those commodities should be divided into different traffic category according to transport mode

    (c) ISO Containers and Ro/ro should be Noted in ton and TEUs

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    TABLE

    SPECIAL TRAFFIC FORECASTING DELINEATED IN YEARS

    Import (a)( in thousand tons )

    Scenario A Scenario B

    1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000 1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000

    Liquid Bulk

    - CPO- Petroleum product- Sulphur (b)- Vegetable oilDry Bulk- Bricks- Iron Seed- Sulphur (b)- Cement (s)- Grains

    - OthersContainers Load dan ro/ro (c)- Celular Ship- Conventional Ship- Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load- Palletized Tin- Iron and steel product- Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk- Sacked Wheat

    - Sacked Cement- Sacked Fertilizer- Fresh Fruit- Vehicles- Machinery- General Cargo

    (a) Main Commodities figured is the ones that need separate estimation in single port. (The list is not complete)

    (b) Those commodities should be divided into different traffic category according to transport mode

    (c) ISO Containers and Ro/ro should be Noted in ton and TEUs

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    EXAMPLEEXAMPLE

    REGRESION LINEREGRESION LINE

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    ExampleExample::FromFrom 88 zone,zone, itit isis knownknown thethe triptrip productionproduction perper dayday (Y)(Y)andand shipsships (X)(X) asas shownshown inin thethe tabletable..

    No of ZoneNo of Zone Trip Production per dayTrip Production per dayThe number of shipsThe number of ships

    availableavailable

    11 500500 200200

    22 300300 5050

    33 13001300 500500

    44 200200 100100

    55 400400 100100

    66 12001200 100100

    77 900900 300300

    88 10001000 400400

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    FindFind RegressionRegression Model,Model, byby leastleast squaresquare MethodMethod inin orderorder totogetget predictionprediction thethe YY andand XX ??SolutionSolution ::

    XXYY XX22 XYXY

    200200 500500 4000040000 100000100000

    5050 300300 25002500 1500015000

    500500 13001300 250000250000 650000650000

    100100 200200 1000010000 2000020000

    100100 400400 1000010000 4000040000

    100

    100

    1200

    1200

    10000

    10000

    120000

    120000

    300300 900900 9000090000 270000270000

    400400 10001000 160000160000 400000400000

    17501750 58005800 572500572500 16150001615000

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    FormulaFormula forfor LeastLeast SquareSquare MethodMethod toto findfind thethe bestbest fitfit lineline of ofRegressionRegression lineline..

    2222

    22

    XXXXnn

    XYXYXXYYXXAA

    !!

    (( ))(( )) (( ))(( ))

    (( )) (( )) 323,7323,71750175057250057250088

    161500016150001750175058005800572500572500AA 22 ==--

    --==

    !!

    2222XXXXnn

    YYXXXYXYnnBB

    1.8251.825(1750)(1750)(572500)(572500)88

    (5800)(5800)(1750)(1750)(1615000)(1615000)88BB

    22==

    --

    --==

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    Y = A + BX Y = A + BX

    Y = 323,7 + 1,825X Y = 323,7 + 1,825X

    Then,Then,RegressionRegression lineline isis ::

    regresion ine

    y = 0.271 x + 21.8 3

    R2

    = 0.4957

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    00

    0 500 1000 1500

    trip production

    No

    ofShip

    Series1

    inear (Series1)

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    thankyouthankyou