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____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Workshop Economia & Biodiversidade UTAD, Vila Real
24 de Abril, 2016
Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da
Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Lívia Madureira
Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD)
CETRAD – Centro de Estudos Transdisciiplinares para o Desenvolvimento
Vila Real, Portugal Email - [email protected]
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Apresentação sintetizada do estudo
Feasibility Study on the Valuation of Public Goods and Externalities in EU Agriculture [PGaE-VALUE]
A study Commissioned by:
European Commission
JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy
Available as on-line publication
Madureira L., Santos J. L., Ferreira A., Guimarães H., 2013. Feasibility Study on the Valuation
of Public Goods and Externalities in EU Agriculture. Edited by Maria Espinosa e Sergio
Gomez y Paloma, European Commission, EUR 26135 – Joint Research Centre – Institute for
Prospective Technological Studies. EUR – Scientific and Technical Research series – ISSN
1831-9424 (online). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Need for values of changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad scales
• Agricultural landscapes are specific combinations of: • farming systems,
• woodlands,
• semi-natural vegetation,
• rivers, and other non-agricultural elements
• … have specific structure, functioning and processes, and
• … deliver multiple, highly valued goods and services: • cultural amenities,
• biodiversity conservation,
• water quality and availability,
• climate stability,
• resilience to fire,
• resilience to flooding
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Need for values of changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad scales
• Agricultural landscapes and the bundles of public goods they deliver are often driven at broad macro-regional scales by changes in agricultural and trade policies;
• human well-being is thus significantly affected;
• these welfare impacts are largely not accounted for in policy decision-making at these broad supranational scales.
• The need to avoid this policy failure led to an increasing demand for the economic valuation of changes in multiple public goods of agriculture at broad, supranational scales.
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Goals and challenges of a broad-scale valuation methodological framework
A framework to value changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad, supranational scales
To address this policy demand, the required valuation framework needs to:
• be empirically-based and policy-relevant (focused on the available
policy options at a broad scale)
• be understandable by the general public of many involved
countries whose values are to be surveyed
• provide context-rich valuation scenarios - essential for people to
engage in economic trade-offs, instead of giving symbolic
reactions to abstract scenarios
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Development of the valuation framework (5 steps)
Identification, delimitation and description of macro-regions (MR) at EU level
• Data for landscape and farm structure variables
• (a) Cluster analysis; (b)Factorial followed by cluster analysis
Describing and mapping PG
• Search for PG indicators
• Mapping PG built on indicators at NUT3 level
Identifying representative bundle of PG of each macro-region
• Cross tabling PG with macro-regions
• Analyzing the PG profile of each macro-region (cobweb diagrams)
Describing macro-regional agri-environmental problems (MRAEP)
• Core narratives (valuation context)
• Selection of core PG (start point for attributes selection)
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Development of the valuation framework
Designing choice scenarios at macro-regional scale
• Selection of representative bundle
• Which PG are going to be valued related to each selected MRAEP (attributes selection)
• How to describe them (attributes communication to general public)
• Changes in PG in each bundle (attributes level)
Describing macro-regional agri-environmental problems
• Core narratives (valuation context)
• Selection of core PG (start point for attributes selection)
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Macro-regions: types of agro-ecological landscape infrastructure delivering different bundles of PG
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Core PG in each MR
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
MRAEP: How they are they defined? To deliver the valuation contexts and scenarios
• Delimiting MR;
• Identifying core the bundle of PG currently delivered by that agro-ecological infrastructure;
• Setting the trends, i.e., the expected direction of future change in land use (e.g. farmland abandonment or agricultural intensification)
• Identifying the expected effects of such change on the delivery of PG in that MR
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Correspond to a core dynamic trend in a macro-region Farmland abandonment in the Mediterranean Uplands macro-region
This trend entails changes in the provision of core Public goods in the macro-region
Cultural services of landscape, farmland biodiversity, soil erosion control and fire resilience
Policy-on scenario promotes/avoids changes in the provision level of (some) those PG (that can be valued against a policy-off scenario)
Payments for the core public goods (that can be influence by the policy)
The macro-regional agri-environmental problem defined as valuation problem
From MRAEP to the choice scenarios for PG change valuation
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Survey design for the MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
Example of MRAEP selected for choice modelling survey
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
3. Design of Choice Modelling survey
Non-monetary attributes: selection and description – “farmland in Mediterranean Upland and its benefits to the common-citizen” https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxwDYXu1Z82lMUhSakJXY0lIZlU/view?usp=s
haring
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
3. Design of Choice Modelling survey
Non-monetary attributes: selection and description – “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland and its losses to the
common-citizen”
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
Design of Choice Modelling survey
Non-monetary attributes: selection and description – PG programmes
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
3. Design of Choice Modelling survey
Programmes ensuring supply of PG, were offered as follow:
To pay farmers to maintain:
• (a) all of these services or;
• (b) only some of them (e.g., only conservation of landscape or fire risk reduction).
• (a) to apply each programme in all the region of Mediterranean Uplands (100% of region) or;
• to apply each programme in only half of the region of Mediterranean Uplands (50% of region).
Non-monetary attributes levels– Attributes levels for MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean
Upland”
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
3. Design of Choice Modelling survey
Non-monetary attributes levels– Attributes levels for MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean
Upland”
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
3. Design of Choice Modelling survey
Non-monetary attributes levels– Policy-on (reference levels) and policy-off (baseline) levels
• Applying each programme in 100% of the area of the region will ensure the maintenance of the existing traditional landscape, preserve all currently endangered species and prevent the increase of the risk of erosion and fire risk compared to the current situation.
• Applying each programme in 50% of the area of the region will ensure maintenance of the existing traditional landscape, preserve all currently endangered species and prevent the increase of the risk of erosion and fire risk compared to the current situation, but only in 50% of the area in the region.
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
3. Design of Choice Modelling survey
Monetary attribute – Payment vehicle, amounts and duration of payments
• This cost (programmes implementation costs) have to be support by the European citizens, including you, by higher taxes, or creating special rates on products or about visitors to this region,
• The amounts, duration of payments and unit that pays
Increase in tax payments per household (annually for 5 years)
3 € 12 € 21 € 39 €
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
3. Design of Choice Modelling survey
Choice set: number of alternatives (baseline and reference levels) – MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
• Example of choice set
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
4. Test survey at pilot scale
Three samples for 300 valid interviews each have been selected
a) Face-to-face interviews with CAPI (computer assisted personal interviews), carry out in the Metropolitan area of Lisbon (PT)
b) Panel web-base (one-line) administrated for national population of Portugal
c) Panel web-base (one-line) administrated for national population of Germany
Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for–Samples MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
Criteria for sampling selection:
1. Stratified samples have been selected
a) Age, gender
b) & c) Age, Gender, NUTS2
2. Individual with 18 years old in charge of household expenses
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
4. Test survey at pilot scale
Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for–Samples MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
Sample composition: Gender
Sample composition: Age
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
FTF Portugal Online Portugal Online Germany
pers
on
s
Female
Male
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 >65
pe
rso
ns FTF Portugal
Online Portugal
Online Germany
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
4. Test survey at pilot scale
Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for–Samples MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
Sample composition: Education
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
4. Test survey at pilot scale
Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for–Samples MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
Sample composition: Household Income (monthly in euros)
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
4. Test survey at pilot scale
Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for– Preliminary results MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
Preliminary estimates for MNL model Basic specification (no-interactions, neither socio-demographics)
Attribute Estimates for MNL model
F2F Portugal (Lisbon metrop.
area)
Web-based Portugal
Web-based Germany
Cultural landscape (CL) 0.6212*** 0.7019*** 0.5804***
Farmland biodiversity (FB) 0.6991*** 1.1093*** 0.9550***
Soil quality (SQ) 0.6798*** 0.5535*** 0.3608***
Fire resilience (FR) 1.1521*** 0.8617*** 0.4291***
Price (tax increase) -0.02746*** -0.02380*** -0.02132***
Log-Likelihood function -1317.516 -1317.117 -1449.332
No Observations 1500 1500 1500
Note:. ***, **, * denote significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level, respectively
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
4. Test survey at pilot scale
Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for– Preliminary results MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”
Preliminary estimates for attributes WTP WTP obtained from MNL basic specification (no-interactions, neither socio-demographics)
Attribute WTP Estimates (basic MNL model)
F2F Portugal (Lisbon metrop. area)
Web-based Portugal
Web-based Germany
Cultural landscape (CL) 23 € 30 € 27 €
[16 – 29] [21 – 38] [19 -36]
Farmland biodiversity (FB) 26€ 47 € 45 €
[19 -32] [36 -58] [34 -56]
Soil quality (SQ) 25 € 23 € 17 €
[18 – 32] [16 – 30] [10 -24]
Fire resilience (FR) 42 € 36 € 20 €
[32 - 50] [27 -45] [13 – 28]
Note: Confidence Intervals (95% confidence level) in brackets
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
TAKE HOME MESSAGES
Common citizen preferences towards farmland biodiversity and
other environmental public goods of agriculture can be obtained
for EU programmes at a macro-regional scale
The values are obtained based on a choice regarding a change:
policy-on vs. policy-off scenario
There are challenges on how to communicate those changes to
the common citizen
Why taking into account the common citizen preferences
towards biodiversity and other environmental public good into
the funding decisions?
____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum
OBRIGADA!
Lívia Madureira
UTAD -Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro
DESG –Departmento de Economia, Sociologia e Gestão
CETRAD – Centro de Estudos Transdisciplinares para o Desenvolvimento
UTAD/DESG
Quinta de Prados, 5000 801 Vila Real, Portugal
Email - [email protected]