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2016/4/5 Brazil/Argentina: Combined Production Capacity to Reach 5.87 Million Units in 2014 MarkLines全球汽车产业平台

http://www.marklines.com/cn/report/rep845_201002 1/14

Brazil/Argentina: combined production capacity to reach 5.87 million units in 2014

New vehicle sales in Brazil grew to 3.14 million in 2009,

manufacturers launching more vehicles designed for South American Market

Feb. 1, 2010 No.845

Index

Combined production capacity in Brazil and Argentina totals 4.78 million a year; plant...

Fiat, VW, and GM each to increase annual production capacity in Brazil to 1 million; Ford...

Renault increasing vehicles produced in Argentina; likewise for PSA in Brazil

Toyota started constructing new plant in Brazil, Honda and Hyundai Motor resume construction...

Collaborative report with IHS Global Insight

Mid-term Production Forecast

Executive Summary

In 2009, sales of new vehicles in Brazil increased 321,000 units year-on-year, to 3,141,000, surpassing

the 3-million mark for the first time. Among this figure, Light Vehicle flex-fuel vehicles accounted for

88.2% of all vehicles sold. This is up 1 percentage point year-on-year. The volume of vehicles exported

from Brazil fell by 259,000 units, to 475,000, with production volume declining 33,000 units, to 3,183,000.

The decrease in exports is due to the slumping markets in both Argentina and South Africa, two of Brazil's

major export markets.

In December 2009, the Brazilian Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA)

announced its forecast for 2010. It estimates that new vehicle sales, exports, and production will grow by

9.3%, 12.2%, and 5.4%, respectively.

In Argentina in 2009, unit sales of new vehicles fell by 125,000 year-on-year, to 487,000. The volume of

vehicles exported also fell, by 29,000, making the yearly total 322,000. And production volume was down

by 84,000 units, to only 513,000.

The combined production capacity of major auto makers in both Brazil and Argentina is 4.78 million units

a year, with Brazil accounting for 3.9 million and Argentina for 880,000. The top selling auto

manufacturers (Fiat, VW, GM, and Ford) are all planning to expand their existing production facilities.

Fiat, VW, and GM are each planning to boost their production capacity to 1 million a year in Brazil.

In addition, Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai Motor will construct new plants. And China-based Chery

Automobile announced that it has plans to build a plant in Brazil. As a result, the combined production

capacity in Brazil of all manufacturers will increase by 1.05 million by 2014 and surpass the 5-million mark.

In Argentina, the combined production capacity is expected to grow by 30,000 by 2014 and reach a level in

the 900,000s.

In line with each auto manufacturer increasing its scope of production, each is actively developing and

launching new vehicle models designed for the South American market.

■Major auto manufacturers' production and development activities on new vehicles designed for South

American market

Production

baseProduction and development activities on new vehicle models

Fiat Brazil

The company is currently developing successors to the Uno and the Palio

in Brazil, with plans to start producing them in 2010 in Brazil. Both vehicles

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will be produced and marketed in Europe also.

VW

Brazil The company is currently developing a new vehicle model in Brazil. So far,

the details haven't been announced.

Argentina

In 2009, VW started producing the Amarok, the first pickup developed by

the company. (The truck was developed in Europe.) The company plans to

export it to Europe also.

GM

Brazil The company is currently developing two new Chevrolet vehicles in Brazil.

Argentina

In 2009, the company started production of a new vehicle, the Chevrolet

Agile, which it developed in Brazil. It is marketed within the MERCOSUR

region.

Ford Brazil The company is currently developing several new models.

Renault Argentina

The company started producing a new vehicle model, the Symbol, which is

a sedan version of the Clio that was developed in Europe and Turkey.

Production began in 2009. The company is selling it in South America.

PSA Brazil

In Brazil, the company is currently developing a Brazilian version of the

Citroen C3 Picasso that was developed in Europe; and developing the

Peugeot 207 Pickup, a new vehicle model based on the Peugeot 206.

Production is expected to begin in 2010.

Toyota Brazil

The company is expected to begin production of the Etios at a new plant

at the end of 2010 in Brazil, following its production launch in India. This is

a new vehicle designed for the BRIC market.

Honda

Brazil

In 2009, the company started production of the City. This vehicle is

designed for the South American market but is based on a model being

produced in Thailand.

Argentina The company in 2010 is planning to launch operations at a new plant. The

company hasn't announced which vehicles it will produce there.

Hyundai

MotorBrazil

It is believed that the company will produce the i20 and an SUV at its new

plant scheduled to start operations in 2011.

■Brazil: production, export, and new vehicle sales (units)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Production 1,827,791 2,317,227 2,530,840 2,612,329 2,980,108 3,215,976 3,182,617

Export 535,980 758,787 897,144 842,837 789,371 734,583 475,285

New vehicle sales 1,428,610 1,578,775 1,714,644 1,927,738 2,462,728 2,820,350 3,141,240

Export/Production 29.3% 32.7% 35.4% 32.3% 26.5% 22.8% 14.9%

Source: Brazil National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA)

(Note) 1.Production and export figures include CKD.

New vehicles sales, including imported cars, are on a registration basis.

2. New vehicle sales by auto manufacturer are shown at the end of this report.

■Sales of light vehicles in Brazil by fuel type (units)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Gasoline 1,152,463 1,077,945 697,033 316,561 245,660 217,021 221,709

Ethanol 36,380 50,950 32,357 1,863 107 84 70



Flexible Fuel 48,178 328,379 812,104 1,430,334 2,003,090 2,329,247 2,652,298

Diesel 54,729 66,247 77,453 82,954 92,175 124,639 134,665

Light Vehicle total 1,291,750 1,523,521 1,618,947 1,831,712 2,341,032 2,670,991 3,008,742

FFV ratio 3.7% 21.6% 50.2% 78.1% 85.6% 87.2% 88.2%

Source: ANFAVEA

(Note)

1.

Figures represent sales of new passenger cars and light-duty commercial vehicles and are on a

registration basis. Medium-/heavy-duty commercial vehicles are not included.

2.

In Brazil, gasoline contains 20-25% ethanol. Flexible fuel vehicles (FFV) are able to run either

entirely on ethanol; or on a gasoline/ethanol blend, the percentage of which is on an arbitrary

basis. FFVs were launched in 2003 and offer an advantage to customers in terms of enabling them

to select the type of fuel they want to use depending on the price.

3."FFV Ratio" means the percentage that flexible fuel vehicles account for of new passenger car

and light-duty commercial vehicle sales.

■Argentina: production, export, and new vehicle sales (units)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Production 169,622 260,420 319,755 432,101 544,647 597,086 512,924

Export 108,057 146,236 181,581 236,789 316,410 351,092 322,495

New vehicle sales 155,640 311,961 402,690 460,478 564,926 611,770 487,142

Export/Production 63.7% 56.2% 56.8% 54.8% 58.1% 58.8% 62.9%

Source: Argentine Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ADEFA)

(Note) New vehicle sales means sales to dealers.

New vehicle sales by auto manufacturer are shown at the end of this Report.

■Combined production capacity in Brazil and Argentina totals 4.78 million a year; plant expansion

and new plant construction projects will increase capacity by 1.08 million

In early 2010, the combined annual production capacity in Brazil and Argentina of major auto

manufacturers was 4.78 million, with Brazil accounting for 3.9 million and Argentina for 880,000. Auto

manufacturers having large production capacities include Fiat at 1.02 million (800,000 in Brazil and

220,000 in Argentina); VW at 900,000 (800,000 and 100,000), GM at 900,000 (800,000 and 100,000), and

Ford at 590,000 (500,000 and 90,000).

In Brazil, Fiat, VW, and GM are each planning to boost the production capacities of their existing plants

in the range of 200,000 a year, while Ford is planning to boost it in the range of 50,000.

In Brazil, Toyota is currently constructing a new plant that will be capable of producing 150,000 a year;

and in Argentina, Honda is building a new plant that will be capable of producing 30,000 a year. Also in

Brazil, Hyundai Motor is planning to begin constructing a new plant in the first half of 2010 capable of

producing 100,000 a year. In May 2009, China-based Chery Automobile announced that it plans to build a

plant in Brazil, which will have a production capacity of 150,000 per year.

■Brazil: major auto manufacturers' plants

Assembly

plant

Annual

production

capacity

(1,000

units)

Production vehicle models



Fiat Automoveis

S.A.Betim

800→

1,000

Fiat Doblo, Idea, Linea, Palio, Punto,

Siena, Stilo, Uno, Fiorino, Strada

Volkswagen do

Brasil

Ltda.

Anchieta800→

1,000

VW Gol, Voyage, Polo, Kombi, Saveiro

Taubate VW Gol, Parati

Curitiba VW Golf, Fox

General Motors do

Brasil Ltda.

Sao Caetano

do Sul800→

1,000

Chevrolet Astra, Vectra, Classic (Corsa sedan)

Sao Jose dos

Campos

Chevrolet Corsa, Meriva, Zafira,

Blazer, Montana, S10

Gravatai Chevrolet Celta, Prisma

Ford Motor

Company

Brasil Ltda.

Camacari 250→ 300 Ford EcoSport, Fiesta, Fiesta Sedan

Sao

Bernardo

do Campo

250 Ford Fiesta, Ka, Courier, F-Series, Trucks

Peugeot-Citroen

do

Brazil S.A.

Porto Real 150

Peugeot 206/207 (Note 2)

Citroen C3, Xsara Picasso

Renault do Brasil

S.A.

Sao Jose dos

Pinhais170

Renault Logan/Nissan Aprio

Renault Megane, Sandero, Scenic, Master

Nissan Livina, Grand Livina,

Livina X-Gear, Frontier

Toyota do Brasil

Ltda.

Indaiatuba 70 Toyota Corolla

Sorocaba 0→ 150(The company plans to begin producing

a new vehicle model, the Etios, in 2011.)

Honda Automoveis

do

Brasil Ltda.

Sumare 120 Honda City, Fit, Civic

(Hyundai) Piracicaba 0→ 100(The company plans to begin producing vehicle

models such as the i20 and an SUV in 2011.)

Chery Automobile n.a. 0→ 150 (Production is planned to begin in 2012.)

Mercedes-Benz do

Brasil Ltda.

Juiz de Fora 60 M-Benz C-Class

Sao

Bernardo

do Campo

60 M-Benz Trucks, Buses

Iveco Latin

America

Ltda.

Sete Lagoas 60Iveco Daily, Fiat Ducato,

Peugeot Boxer/Citroen Jumper, Iveco Trucks

Volkswagen

Caminhoes

e Onibus (MAN)

Resende 75 VW Trucks, Buses

Scania Latin

America

Ltda.

Sao

Bernardo

do Campo

20 Scania Trucks, Buses

Volvo do Brasil

Veiculos Ltda.Curitiba 120 Volvo Trucks, Buses



MMC Automotores

do

Brasil S.A.

Catalao 50Mitsubishi L200 pickup (Triton),

Pajero TR4 (io),Pajero Sport (Challenger)

Caoa Montadora de

Veiculos S.A.Anapolis 50 Hyundai HR (Porter)

Total annual production capacity will increase from 3,905,000 to 4,955,000

(Note)

1.The two companies listed last (light blue areas) were established with local capital.

2.The Peugeot 207, which PSA produces in South America, is designed exclusively for the South

American market. It is based on the 206.

3.

China-based Chery Automobile announced in May 2009 that it plans to build a plant in Brazil. In

January 2010, the company inspected a plant site in Mato Grosso do Sul. It plans to build a plant

capable of producing 150,000 units a year, with production to start in 2012.

4.

Caminhoes e Onibus, which Volkswagen sold to MAN at the beginning of 2009, continues to sell

VW vehicles as a subsidiary of MAN Latin America. In October 2009, MAN Latin America

announced that it would start producing heavy-duty trucks under the MAN brand. It initially

plans to produce the 100 units covering the contracts it signed with three transportation

companies in Brazil.

■Argentina: major auto manufacturers' plants

Assembly

plant

Annual

production

capacity

(1,000

units)

Production vehicle models

Fiat Auto Argentina

S.A.Ferreyra 220 Fiat Siena, Palio

Iveco Argentina S.A. Ferreyra 10 Iveco Buses, Trucks

Volkswagen

Argentina S.A.

General

Pacheco100 VW Fox, Suran (SpaceFox), Amarok, Caddy

General Motors

Argentina S.A.Cordoba 100

Chevrolet Agile, Corsa

Suzuki Vitara/Chevrolet Tracker

Ford Argentina S.A.General

Pacheco90 Ford Focus, Ranger

Peugeot-Citroen

Argentina S.A.Villa Bosch 125

Peugeot 206/207, 307, Citroen C4, Peugeot

Partner/Citroen Berlingo

Renault Argentina

S.A.Cordoba 150 Renault Symbol, Clio, Kangoo

Mercedes-Benz

Argentina S.A.

Gonzales

Catan20 M-Benz Sprinter, Buses

Toyota Argentina

S.A.Zarate 65 Toyota Hilux, Hilux SW4 (Fortuner)

Honda Motor de

Argentina S.A.Campana 0→ 30 (Operation is scheduled to start in April 2010)

Total annual production capacity will increase from 880,000 to 910,000.

(Note)

1.It is unknown when Honda will start volume production at its new plant.



2.

In February 2009, China-based Chery Automobile announced that it will build a new plant in

Argentina based on a joint venture, with plans to start production in 2011. However, further

developments regarding this project are unknown.

■Fiat, VW, and GM each to increase annual production capacity in Brazil to 1 million; Ford also

plans to boost capacity

■VW announces plans to increase annual production capacity in Brazil to 1 million; launches

production of new pickup in Argentina

VW is planning to enhance its two plants in Brazil so as to boost its production capacity by 200,000 by

2014, when it will have a total capacity of 1 million. In Argentina, the company started producing its first

proprietary pickup, the Amarok, in December 2009. It plans to export it to Europe starting in the summer

of 2010.

■In Brazil, VW boosts its production capacity from 800,000 to 1 million a year

VW will invest a total of 2.3 billion Euros mainly to develop new vehicle models and enhance its

production capacity at its Brazilian operations during the five years from 2010 to 2014, as announced in

November 2009. The plants to be expanded are the Anchieta plant and the Taubate plant. VW plans to

boost its annual production capacity in Brazil from the current 800,000 to 1 million.

■In Argentina, VW started producing a new pickup , the Amarok

In December 2009, VW started producing its new pickup, the Amarok, at its General Pacheco plant in

Argentina. The Amarok is the first pickup truck that VW developed. It comes with a 2.0L diesel-powered

engine. Initially, only a double-cab is available, but a single-cab will also be made available in 2011.

VW is going to produce a maximum of 90,000 Amaroks a year, planning to export 80% of them. It will

begin exporting them to countries in South America, mainly to Brazil, at the beginning of 2010, with

plans to start selling them in Europe in the summer of 2010.

■GM boosts annual production capacity in Brazil to 1 million; produces new vehicle, the Agile, in

Argentina

GM is planning to boost its production capacity in Brazil by 200,000 units to achieve 1 million a year by

2012. In addition, the company will develop two new vehicle models designed for South America under the

Chevrolet brand. In September 2009 in Argentina, it started producing the Chevrolet Agile, a new vehicle

model that it developed in Brazil.

■GM in Brazil will develop two new vehicle models designed for South America, with plans to enhance

its Gravatai plant

GM will invest a total of 200 million real (approximately USD100 million) in its business in Brazil

between 2009 and 2012, as announced in July 2009. Of the total, 140 million real will be used to develop

two new Chevrolet vehicles designed for South America, which GM will produce in Brazil; and enhance its

Gravatai plant in Brazil. The production capacity of the Gravatai plant will be increased to 380,000 a

year.

■In Argentina, GM produces the Agile, a new vehicle developed in Brazil

In September 2009, GM started producing the Chevrolet Agile at its Cordoba plant in Argentina. The

Agile is a new vehicle model developed at the Center for Development of Vehicles in Brazil. The company

invested USD 400 million in the development and production of the Agile, which will be marketed in

Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

■Ford developing new models to be produced in Brazil; company boosting annual production capacity

by 50,000, for yearly total of 550,000

Between 2010 and 2014, Ford will revamp its plants in Brazil and develop new models that it will produce

in Brazil. The company will boost the production capacity of its Camacari plant by 50,000, so the yearly

total will reach 300,000 a year. The combined production capacity, which includes that of its Sao Bernardo



do Campo plant, is planned to reach 550,000 a year.

■Ford increases annual production capacity of its Camacari plant in Brazil from 250,000 to 300,000

Between 2010 and 2014, Ford will invest a total of USD 2.3 billion to revamp and enhance its

production facilities in Brazil and in developing new models that it will manufacture in Brazil, as the

company announced in November 2009. The company plans to boost the production capacity of its

Camacari plant, which produces the EcoSport and Fiesta, from the 2009 level of 250,000, to 300,000 a

year.

■Fiat develops successors to Palio and Uno in Brazil

Fiat is currently developing successor vehicles to the Palio and the Uno in Brazil, expecting to start

production of them in 2010. The company is also considering producing Chrysler's pickup, the Dodge

Dakota, in Argentina.

■Fiat to develop and produce successors to the Palio and Uno in Brazil

Fiat is currently developing successor vehicles to the Palio (development code: Project 326) and the

Uno (development code: Project 327) in Brazil. The company is expected to begin producing the two

vehicle models in 2010. Between 2007 and 2010, Fiat is currently making an investment of 2 billion Euros

in its business in South America, planning to boost the production capacity of its production facilities in

Brazil to 1 million a year by 2010.

(Note) The successor to the Palio is rumored to come in various derivative models, including 3- and 5-

door hatchbacks, a station wagon, a sedan, and a pickup.

■Fiat is considering producing Chrysler's pickup in Argentina

Fiat is considering producing the Dodge Dakota in Argentina, a pickup that Chrysler plans to

discontinue producing by the end of 2011. When production operations are transferred to Argentina, the

truck will probably be marketed under the Fiat brand.

(Note) Fiat has been planning to produce one of Tata's pickups on an outsourcing basis, but the project

is being held up due to circumstances at Tata.

■Renault increasing vehicles produced in Argentina; likewise for PSA in Brazil

■Renault's Argentine plant positioned as an export hub for the Clio/Symbol and Kangoo

In February 2009, Renault began producing the Symbol in Argentina. The company has positioned its

Santa Isabel plant in Argentina as an export hub for the Clio/Symbol and Kangoo.

■Renault starts producing the Symbol at Argentine plant

In February 2009, Renault began producing its Renault Symbol at its Santa Isabel plant in Cordoba,

Argentina. The Symbol, which is designed for the South American market, is a sedan based on the Clio.

The Curitiba plant in Brazil supplies engines while the Cormecanica plant in Chile supplies manual

transmissions. The South American content ratio is 80%, with 50% procured in Argentina and 30% in

Brazil, Chile, and other countries.

Sources: Renault News Release 2008.12.23, etc.

(Note)

Renault plans to position its Santa Isabel plant as an export hub for the Clio/Symbol and

Kangoo. With the start of production of the Symbol, the company discontinued production of the

Megane in January 2009.

■PSA will produce a new MPV and pickup in Brazil

PSA is planning to start production of a new MPV and pickup in Brazil in 2010.

■PSA will produce a new MPV and pickup in Brazil

In 2010, PSA plans to begin producing the Citroen C3 Picasso, a new MPV; and the Peugeot 207 Pickup

in Brazil. The Peugeot 207 Pickup is based on the 207, which was developed in Brazil and based on the



206. The 207 is a different model from the 207 designed for Europe.

■Toyota started constructing new plant in Brazil, Honda and Hyundai Motor resume construction of

their new plants

■Toyota is expected to produce a new vehicle model, the Etios, at its new plant in Brazil starting in

2011

In August 2009, Toyota began constructing its new plant in Sorocaba, Brazil, planning to start operations

in 2011. The new plant is expected to manufacture the Etios, a new vehicle model designed for the BRIC

countries and unveiled in India in January 2010.

■Toyota's second plant in Brazil to come online in 2011: plant expected to produce a new vehicle

model, the Etios

In January 2010, Toyota unveiled a concept car of its new vehicle, the Etios, at the Delhi Auto Expo in

India. The concept car is believed to be a close prototype of the actual vehicle scheduled for mass-

production. The company plans to start producing the vehicle first in India at the end of 2010 and in

Brazil in 2011. The Etios, which is based on a new platform, will come in both hatchback and sedan

models. It comes with a 1.2L/1.5L engine. It is believed that the selling price will be approximately USD

10,000.

In August 2009, Toyota started constructing a new plant in Sorocaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil on a site it

acquired in July 2008. The company plans to start operations in 2011. The initial production capacity will

be150,000 a year, which will be increased to 400,000. Incidentally, the existing Indaiatuba plant, which

produces the Toyota Corolla, is capable of producing 70,000 a year.

Sources: Toyota News Release 2010.1.5, etc.

■Honda's new plant in Argentina to come online in spring 2010; company adding the City to

production lineup in Brazil

Honda's new plant in Argentina will commence operations in the spring of 2010, about half a year later

than originally planned. Honda suspended construction activities at the plant in 2009. However, the exact

timing when the plant will start full commercial production is still not known. In Brazil, where Honda

manufactures its current Fit and Civic models, it added the City to its production line up in July 2009.

■Honda's new plant in Argentina to come online in April 2010

Honda is currently building a new plant in Campana, Buenos Aires, Argentina, expecting to start

operations in April 2010. The new plant will be capable of producing 30,000 units a year. However, it is

still not know when it will begin full volume-production. The new plant was originally planned to start

operations in the second half of 2009, but construction at the plant was suspended due to the global

economic downturn.

■Honda, which began producing the City in Brazil, also started exporting it to Mexico

In July 2009, Honda started producing and selling the City FFV (Flexible Fuel Vehicle) in Brazil. In

addition, it began exporting the gasoline-powered City to Mexico in September 2009, planning to

gradually start exporting it to countries in South America. (Pilot production of the gasoline-powered City

was started in January 2009). The City being manufactured in Brazil is designed for the Brazilian and

South American markets and is based on the 3rd-generation City produced in Thailand.

Sources: Honda Press Release 2009.7.24, etc.

■Hyundai Motor to begin constructing new plant in Brazil, plans to start operations in the latter half

of 2011

Hyundai Motor will begin constructing a plant in Brazil in the first half of 2010, planning to start

operations in the second half of 2011. The new plant, which will be capable of producing 100,000 units a

year, is planning to produce the i20 and others.

■Hyundai Motor is expected to start constructing new plant in Brazil in the second quarter of 2010



Hyundai Motor will begin constructing a new plant in Piracicaba in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil in the

second quarter of 2010. Construction was postponed due to the global economic slowdown. The new plant

is expected to start commercial operations as early as the second half of 2011. It will initially be capable

of producing 100,000 units and manufacture the i20 and SUVs.

(Appendix)

■Brazil's new vehicle sales by auto manufacturer (on wholesales basis) (units)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Agrale 3,883 4,315 3,346 3,408 4,124 6,773 4,529

DaimlerChrysler 38,636 42,926 42,144

Fiat 317,669 358,079 405,987 464,734 612,703 665,614 736,969

Ford 162,948 195,517 211,503 226,717 258,484 296,833 325,504

GM 317,545 377,055 360,934 402,624 519,199 560,849 595,491

Honda 32,487 52,114 57,522 66,657 87,956 121,725 125,869

Hyundai 18,098 42,261 71,049

Iveco 2,909 4,804 4,425 3,135 6,356 11,957 10,587

Land Rover 1,204 1,770 2,093

Mercedes-Benz 39849 48,993 57,718 53,982

MMC Automotores 15,117 21,457 24,409 23,682 31,164 44,031 37,504

Nissan 7,950 8,595 7,195 5,858 5,636 15,704 23,225

PSA 57,277 64,496 81,495 101,238 132,345 152,803 151,159

Renault 55,545 55,428 46,496 49,665 76,674 115,363 117,521

Scania 4,630 6,676 6,127 5,765 7,524 8,831 9,097

Toyota 43,698 50,309 63,212 70,521 68,811 81,162 93,506

VW 305,587 370,982 381,575 416,874 539,658 586,549 686,408

VW Caminhoes e

Onibus (MAN) 27,366 36,455 44,974 41,068

Volvo Trucks 4,908 6,529 6,063 6,347 8,138 10,493 9,007

Others 5,291 5,180 7,446 5,699 25,383 40,842 54,430

Total 1,377,284 1,626,232 1,711,972 1,920,139 2,487,701 2,864,482 3,146,905

Source: ANFAVEA

(Note)

1.

The data includes imported vehicles. "Others" (second to last row) represents sales of vehicles

imported by non-ANFAVEA members.

2.

Figures for 2009 show the total number of registered new passenger car and light-duty

commercial vehicles; and the wholesale volume of trucks (both medium- and heavy-duty) and

buses.

3.Up to 2005, sales of Mercedes Benz are included in those of DaimlerChrysler. Mercedes Benz

sales in 2005 totaled 40,320 units.

4. MMC Automotores produces and sells Mitsubishi brand vehicles on consignment.

5.

VW Caminoes e Onibus is VW's truck and bus division. Company data is included under VW up

to 2005. In 2005, VW Caminoes e Onibus' sales were 27,043 units. VW sold Volkswagen

Caminhoes e Onibus to MAN in 2009. MAN continues to produce and sell vehicles under the VW

brand.

■Argentina's new vehicle sales by auto manufacturer (units)



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Fiat 14,664 30,813 44,080 43,751 56,621 65,605 47,902

Ford 31,867 56,402 61,851 65,867 77,472 78,460 65,598

Mazda 81 19 18

Jaguar 8 17 20 17 12 4 3

Volvo 48 72 175 203 443 425 122

Land Rover 61 156 213 244 227 187 52

GM 23,286 56,020 72,782 76,228 94,399 96,634 78,078

Suzuki 1,844 8,710 11,194 9,391 9,618 9,330 7,385

Isuzu 235 711 747 21 0

Iveco 1,103 2,018 3,424 3,005 3,629 4,699 2,272

DaimlerChrysler 3,332 8,119 12,058 13,823 16,980

Mercedes 2,813 7,361 10,747 12,023 13,943

Chrysler 519 758 1,311 1,800 3,037

Mercedes 15,049 9,321

PSA 17,318 36,085 52,761 64,978 83,728 77,732 64,725

Renault 16,868 29,282 43,255 58,988 68,740 74,591 64,372

Nissan 1,817 2,671 3,652 2,932 3,933 5,795 4,155

Scania 312 1,036 1,795 1,580 1,722 1,723 716

Toyota 11,501 12,990 17,035 23,563 28,057 31,837 27,913

VW 31,419 72,786 83,934 93,950 112,713 125,370 96,045

Others 3,970 6,410 9,715 14,745 20,865 40,070 30,200

Total 155,640 311,961 402,690 460,478 564,926 611,770 487,142

Source: ADEFA

(Note)

1.

"Others" (second to last row) shows sales of vehicles imported by non- ADEFA members,

including parallel imports.

2.Data for Mazda, Jaguar, Volvo and Land Rover is included under Ford.

Data for Suzuki and Isuzu is included under GM. Data for Nissan is included under Renault.

3.The data in blue for Mercedes and Chrysler are included under DaimlerChrysler up to 2007.

The data for Chrysler is included under "Others" from 2008 and after.

Mid-term Production Forecast by IHS Global Insight

Brazil: Light vehicle production by Manufacturing group (IHS Global InsightForecast) (Unit)

Brand 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AGRALE AGRALE 231 105 205 244 274 290 321 331

CHERY CHERY 0 0 0 0 0 2,715 25,214 27,641

DAIMLER AG M-BENZ 27,095 16,110 20,998 17,152 14,184 0 0 0

FIATFIAT 722,447 763,744 766,803 794,116 818,974 838,451 857,240 887,925

IVECO 6,834 5,805 5,431 5,482 5,567 5,620 5,983 6,467

FORD FORD 297,206 319,366 314,521 302,203 327,001 351,384 352,205 357,816

GM CHEVROLET 579,507 589,102 590,647 580,382 595,758 603,661 613,487 632,237

HONDA HONDA 131,139 137,346 157,406 154,033 164,415 158,076 130,878 130,214



HYUNDAI HYUNDAI 0 6,950 12,169 12,716 12,548 56,911 61,767 60,246

MITSUBISHI MITSUBISHI 37,203 32,891 39,479 40,487 40,957 42,552 45,029 47,077

NISSAN NISSAN 5,316 17,644 19,731 21,264 21,648 22,193 22,765 22,558

PSACITROEN 63,332 47,779 60,777 88,837 103,265 104,952 103,997 106,848

PEUGEOT 83,489 72,740 89,058 88,379 87,043 87,555 87,510 89,776

RENAULT RENAULT 128,621 120,411 113,654 102,819 110,748 112,282 125,424 141,655

TOYOTA TOYOTA 66,983 61,795 60,043 79,579 164,017 167,901 185,178 188,693

VW VW 717,009 773,591 799,809 840,212 846,169 850,525 852,796 882,084

Total 2,866,412 2,965,379 3,050,731 3,127,905 3,312,568 3,405,068 3,469,794 3,581,568

Argentina: Light vehicle production by Manufacturing group (IHS Global InsightForecast) (Unit)

Brand 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DAIMLER AG M-BENZ 31,159 12,070 15,422 17,786 19,423 23,358 24,499 25,127

FIAT FIAT 28,700 75,397 60,188 59,285 52,983 53,805 56,287 59,165

FORD FORD 83,643 74,994 78,869 79,969 80,160 88,300 90,872 96,109

GM CHEVROLET 111,911 80,085 105,694 104,298 105,622 109,422 109,482 110,011

HONDA HONDA 12,650 40,253 41,888

PSACITROEN 41,548 32,331 41,167 45,237 48,387 51,168 52,157 52,577

PEUGEOT 90,243 48,528 63,668 75,861 79,337 84,163 88,452 90,134

RENAULT RENAULT 73,336 64,377 76,640 93,832 96,774 98,126 102,200 108,582

TOYOTA TOYOTA 64,539 62,264 60,180 61,662 64,052 68,527 71,821 74,376

VW VW 63,156 52,619 95,629 105,812 107,862 108,833 112,188 120,197

Total 588,235 502,665 597,457 643,742 654,600 698,352 748,211 778,166

Source: Global LV Production Data (as of January 27, 2010)

(Note)

1. Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial

vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons. Trucks and buses in the segment of larger than

medium-size vehicles are not included.

2.Data for 2009 are based on estimated figures.

3. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of IHS Global Insight.

IHS Global Insight Report (Released on 11 Jan 2010)

Brazil: Brazilian Light-Vehicle Sales Finish 2009 with 51.1% Y/Y Jump in December; Production

Skyrockets 164%

Brazilian vehicle sales ended 2009 on a high note, while production soared as automakers attempted to

catch up with the increase in demand.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

SignificanceDespite the elimination of tax incentives, vehicle sales remained strong in December,

up 51.1% year-on-year (y/y), meaning that full-year sales were up 12.6% from 2008.

Implications

December 2008 was not a great month for sales, making the y/y comparison somewhat

skewed, but the fact that sales remained high last month despite the ending of

government tax incentives is encouraging.

OutlookBrazil's strong economy and quicker recovery than the rest of the world have led to

positive sales and production forecasts for 2010.

Production rose dramatically during December as automakers rushed to meet returning demand. Light-

vehicle production soared 163.9% y/y to 237,239 units, although this was 13.6% lower than November's

237,010 units. Overall for the year, production was up only marginally, by 0.7% to 3.025 million units.



Exports, a mainstay of the economy, also saw some return to growth in the final month of the year, but

again this was against a low base of comparison as December 2008 was a terrible month. Light-vehicle

exports were up 22.3% y/y in December 2009 at 50,407 units, with the tally rising 6.5% m/m. For the

full year 2009, exports were down sharply, by 33.6% to 451,924 units, as the rest of Latin America cut

back on purchases. A return to sustained export growth is the biggest challenge for the Brazilian

market, according to Schneider, especially in the face of a 34% appreciation in the value of the

Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar. This is also likely to make imported vehicles more of a threat to

locally made products. "We will have to fight to get back our pre-crisis market share because of

difficult market conditions and the strength of the Brazilian real", said the executive.

Last month, Schneider stated that Anfavea expected sales of 3.4 million vehicles in 2010, and

production of 3.39 million units. "The forecasts are positive and realistic because we expect higher

incomes and more consumption in Brazil next year", he said. These forecasts have been maintained

following the December results, according to reports. In a tough global market, Brazil's robust

performance has been a bright spot and a saving grace for the big four vehicle manufacturers operating

in the country—Fiat, Volkswagen (VW), General Motors (GM), and Ford. VW finished 2009 on top of

the Brazilian market with sales of 627,915 cars, up 19.1% y/y. Fiat came second with sales of 619,017

and more modest growth of 11.0% y/y; GM sales rose 7.2% y/y to 502,320 units; and Ford registered

22.7% y/y sales growth to 235,063 units. In December, the sales title went to Fiat, however, which

recorded a 54.2% y/y boost to 54,440 units, while VW posted a weaker increase of 39.7% y/y to 51,952

units.

Outlook and Implications

December's sales numbers were strong, but the percentage gains must be taken in context: December

2008 was one of the weakest months in years, distorting the y/y comparisons. Nevertheless, despite

the gradual phasing out of tax incentives, the car market continued to witness very respectable demand

during the month. The tax incentives provided by the government for new car purchases last year

resulted in a roughly 7% discount for new vehicles, according to Anfavea. This helped Brazil weather

the worst of the downturn quite well, and indeed it was able to report a third consecutive year of

record growth. This was largely thanks to the government's astute strategy in combating the recession.

The overall Brazilian economy is looking significantly stronger than many of its counterparts, although

the government must remain cautious with regards to the extension of its anti-crisis measures.

However, it is indicating that it will continue doing whatever it can to protect vulnerable sectors and

stimulate faster economic growth, as demonstrated by the decision to maintain some incentives in the

car market.

The growth in the Brazilian vehicle market last year underlined the success of the government's

significant and multi-layered approach to stimulating sales. The extended suspension of the IPI

purchase tax, coupled with the Central Bank of Brazil's efforts to underpin car financing operations in

the country, lifted new car buyers' confidence, as did the significant drop in car prices. Nevertheless,

Anfavea and other observers, including IHS Global Insight, remain concerned that the interim

reduction in the purchase tax will result in a conclusive drop in sales volumes now that this support

has been withdrawn completely. However, this sentiment is tempered by the better-than-expected

results for 2009: Anfavea had expected production to fall by 5.2% y/y last year, the first decline since

2002, yet production actually slipped by only 1.0%, including heavy commercial vehicles, buses, and

trucks.

The cost of the IPI tax break to the government amounted to roughly 1.36 billion reais (US$612.8

million) per quarter. The automotive industry accounts for roughly 8% of GDP in Brazil, which has

made support for the sector a government priority. At the same time, the government has worked

aggressively to reduce the spread on automotive credit lines, with banks, including the Central Bank of

Brazil, reducing short-term interest rates (SELIC). The SELIC has been heavily discounted in recent

months and currently stands at 8.75%. IHS Global Insight now expects some moderate growth in 2010,

given the reduction in interest rates, which is making borrowing cheaper, while financing plans of 72

and 84 months are surfacing again, which should also boost demand despite the absence of the tax



incentives that kept sales afloat during the recession months.

IHS Global Insight Report (Released on 13 Jan 2010)

Argentina: Argentine Vehicle Sales Rise 25% Y/Y in December, Production Leaps 112% Y/Y

Argentine vehicle sales rose for the second month in a row during December, although this was largely

thanks to a low base of comparison.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance

December's figures for Argentine vehicle sales, production, and exports are heavily

distorted by a low base of comparison, but they nevertheless show that the market

stabilised at a consistent level during the latter half of 2009.

Implications

Much of Argentina's production and exports has been reliant on its neighbour and key

export market, Brazil, which has performed well thanks to a strong economy

underpinning demand in the market.

Outlook

Stability in production and exports is likely in 2010, but the outlook for the domestic

market is more cautious, particularly as political meddling worsens, with a likelihood of

further mild contraction this year.

Argentine vehicle sales at the wholesale level (manufacturer to dealer) rose for the second successive

month in December, helped by the extremely low base of comparison provided by the December 2008

data. According to data from local industry association ADEFA, light-vehicle sales rose 25.4% year-

on-year (y/y) to 44,850 units in the month, which also equates to a 7.3% rise from November, when

41,818 units were sold. The December 2008 total was one of the lowest in Argentina for years as the

country was in the grip of the global financial crisis and credit crunch, which affected many markets

across the world. Light-vehicle sales at the retail level (dealer to consumer) were also up in December,

by 18% y/y, but at the significantly lower level of 22,117 units, according to data from dealer

association ACARA. The discrepancy between wholesale and retail sales is typical for December as

dealers stock up for the strong sales month of January; furthermore, ADEFA includes heavy-truck and

bus data in its figures. The ADEFA data put wholesales for the full-year 2009 down 20.4% y/y at

487,142 units, some 135,000 units lower than in the same period last year, while ACARA data show

that retail sales at the light-vehicle level were down some 14.3% y/y at 492,905 units.

Argentine vehicle production meanwhile also rose for just the second time in 2009 during December,

jumping 99% y/y to 53,152 units as the weak base comparison month of December 2008 again distorted

the statistics. Production was again down slightly month-on-month (m/m), slipping 5.9% from

November's 56,493 units. Production for the full year was down 14.1% y/y, but it appears evident that

the crisis is subsiding and demand from the key export market of Brazil is helping normalise production

levels in the Argentine auto industry. Exports rose by 112.3% y/y in December to 34,559 units,

underpinned by the aforementioned demand from Brazil, although again the statistical rise is largely

meaningless against the anomalous data of December 2008. Meanwhile, exports fell 12.1% m/m from

November's 39,337 units. However, exports to all markets were down in full-year 2009 compared with

2008, by 8.1% y/y to 322,495 units. Nevertheless, this represented a considerable recovery from the

situation earlier in the year and was largely thanks to the robust Brazilian economy and the successful

stimulus packages operating within Argentina's neighbouring market.

Outlook and Implications

Argentina's vehicle market recorded its second rise of 2009 in December as the impact of the financial

crisis that began in the final quarter of 2008 distorted the statistics. December's sales were marginally

lower than the November total, which was itself a little lower than the October figure, but this is

typical for this time of year and the figures underline the fact that sales have stabilised in Argentina at

around 40,000-45,000 units per month, not a bad result given the fragile nature of the political and

economic landscape.



数据来源：MarkLines汽车信息平台

Copyright(C)MarkLines Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

The government's financial stimulus package, worth some 3.1 billion pesos (US$806.7 million) and

intended to boost new vehicle sales in the country, has failed to have the desired effect despite

offering cheap loans to first-time car buyers and driving the purchase of cheaper and fuel-efficient

cars. Argentina's over-complicated and narrowly focused stimulus plans contrast sharply with the

Brazilian government's package of measures, which has had clear success in mitigating the worst

effects of the downturn. Dealer association ACARA has highlighted a local media study of the stimulus

plan that indicated that only about 5% of planned sales were completed thanks to the new government

loan package. Dealerships say that the loans are too complex and apply to too few cars to boost sales.

Indeed, local media have reported that public banks have had to return around 200 million pesos in

government funds because of a lack of consumer interest in using the money to buy cars.

Overall economic expansion has slowed since September 2008 and there is little doubt that the global

economic and financial crisis has taken its toll on Argentina. Lower commodity prices and weaker

demand for the main Argentine exports have reduced both export and fiscal revenues, affecting growth

prospects and the government's capacity to stimulate the economy. At the same time, expansion of

domestic consumption, an important engine of growth in Argentina, has been decelerating as consumer

confidence has shrunk in response to the deteriorating business climate. Worst of all, the financial

system has become more cautious in its lending policies as non-performing loans (NPLs) are increasing,

making it more difficult for consumers and firms to find adequate sources of financing. On the domestic

front, the adverse business environment created by the government has hurt consumption and

investment decisions, reducing domestic demand precisely when it is most needed. Moreover, far from

saving the money accrued from fiscal surpluses during the last years of the boom --money that could

now finance fiscal programmes during the downturn-- the government conducted an aggressive policy

of fiscal expansion, creating unnecessary distortions in the economy. Furthermore, the government has

now destabilised the role of the central bank by ousting its head without following the proper

procedure over a disagreement on spending.

IHS Global Insight expects Argentine GDP to have contracted by 1.9% in 2009, before recovering to

growth of 2.0% and 4.2% during 2010 and 2011, respectively. For this reason, IHS Global Insight is not

projecting a return to 2008 light-vehicle volumes in the foreseeable future. Our initial forecast for the

Argentine market in 2010 is for another decline, of around 470,000 units compared with 2009.

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