bsria world market intelligence industry briefing - ahr expo 2016

1 Excellence in Market Intelligence 1

BSRIA World Market Intelligence

Industry Briefing - Agenda

Topic Person Time

Welcome Julia Evans BSRIA CEO

08:00 am

Heating markets worldwide: Everything changes so - everything stays the same?

Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating &

Renewables 08:00 - 08:15 am

Intelligent Building Controls Market and the IoT Revolution – how much is hype and how much is really happening?

Raphael Chalogany Business Development

Manager NAM 08:15 - 08:30 am

Connected, Smart HVAC Technology is here – Fact or Fiction? Jeremy Towler

Senior Manager – Energy & Smart Technologies

08:30 - 08:45 am

Global HVACR trends – finding the sweet spots? Anette Holley

Senior Manager – Air-conditioning

08:45 - 09:00 am

2020 and Beyond – how menacing will the new supply chain controller be?

Andrew Giles General Manager

09:00 - 09:15 am

Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am




Topic Person Time


08:00 am









08:30 - 08:45 am



08:45 - 09:00 am



09:00 - 09:15 am

Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am

Latest trends in the World

Traditional & Renewable Heating

Markets

AHR Expo 2016

Krystyna Dawson

Heating & Renewables Manager - BSRIA

Worldwide Market Intelligence

January 2016

4 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

What drives and prevents changes in the heating world

How do renewables perform in the overall heating markets

Sales trends in domestic boilers up to 2020

Latest development in solar thermal and heat pump markets

Half-hearted support for heat pumps so far

Status of heat generators by 2030

4


Move towards Integrated HVAC

systems

Controls & energy management are

growing

Low penetration of renewables in

existing buildings

Increasing gasification in China, Russia and S. Korea

5

Main trends in traditional

Heating Markets, 2015 - 2017

Importance

Urgency

Growing importance of Energy networks

In cities

Substitution of boilers by renewables in new build

Increasing penetration of wall-hung

boilers

Gas-fuelled boilers dominance grows

• Energy efficiency legislation for buildings & products

• Increased RES & distributed energy generation

• Low oil/gas prices

• Economics uncertainty

Global Drivers:

ErP and other efficiency targets drive sales

of condensing products


Eco Design

A +++ ≥150%

A ++ ≥125%

A + ≥98%

A ≥90%

B ≥82%

C ≥75%

D ≥36%

E ≥34%

Cogeneration Gas HP

Condensing boilers

Non-condensing boilers

Ground /Water to water HP

Air to water HP

From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold

Fuel cell

Minimum energy performance and Labels mandatory from 26 Sep. 2015

A ≥175%

B ≥150%

C ≥125%

D ≥100%

E ≥75%

F ≥50%

G ≥34%

New scale from 2020 probable

Empty classes?

Gas boilers on the way out?

ErP – Impact on products

Hydrogen boilers ?


World Water Heating markets by type of technology

7

Includes: Europe, North America, SA Asia, Japan, Brazil, Australia

Total market in 2015: 107.1 mln units

- 3%

‘

Electric storage 32%

Gas storage 6%

Electric instantaneous

31%

Gas instantandous

17%

Domestic hot water heat

pump 2%

Solar Thermal 12%


Water Heating market Europe

Technology overview

European Water Heating market, by type, 2015

DHW HP sales, units, 2012 - 2018

• Electric storage dominate the market but their share is decreasing.

• Instantaneous water heaters are considered more energy efficient.

• Condensing WH will become prevalent from 2018 due to the legislation.

• DHW heat pumps are gaining momentum mainly in France.

ST Water Heaters

SHW HP

Combi boilers

Electric storage

Electric instantaneous

Gas instantaneous

Total market: 14 mln units ca +3%

Includes Turkey, excludes Russia

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CAGR 15%


Solar thermal markets

51,264

4,324 1,690 1,778 914

2,719

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

China Europe Turkey Brazil India Other countries

World main solar thermal markets 2012 - 2015

* 29 countries

Total world* market: 62.7 million m2 in 2015e (-3%)

• ~ -4% growth in 2015

• ~ 79% of world market

‘000 m2

2012 2013 2014 2015


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Market drivers for heat pumps

Building regulations . . .

Energy efficiency regulations for products . . .

PV & storage market development . . .

Smart grid development. . .

But only relate to the new build

But they are done half hearted so far

Storage batteries needed to support own consumption

Ongoing but slow and not everywhere favourable to

heat pumps

2010 2015 2020 2030

timeline

market size


Thank you

Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables Worldwide Market Intelligence

Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH D : +44 (0)1344 465638 F : +44 (0)1344 465626

M : +44 (0)7990 595 836 E : [email protected] W : www.bsria.co.uk

More information at www.bsria.co.uk/market-intelligence




Topic Person Time


08:00 am









08:30 - 08:45 am



08:45 - 09:00 am



09:00 - 09:15 am

Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am

Intelligent Building Controls

Market and the IoT

Revolution -

How much is hype and how

much is really happening?

AHR Expo 2016

Raphael Chalogany

Business Development Manager NA & Head of

Office - BSRIA Inc.

January 2016


Agenda

• BACS – Lighting – Convergence: 2015 market size, champions,

drivers and threats, smart lighting controls, changing business

models

• BACS and IoT

• Impact of IoT on BACS

• IoT and Cloud Services

• Cybersecurity

• Is North America leading the way?

• BSRIA USA

14


Energy Efficiency Legislation & Emerging

Countries Driving US$22bn World BACS* Market

World CAGR <3% World CAGR <4%

US$

Mill

ion

s

* Building Automation & Control Systems (BACS)

Source: BSRIA

Source: BSRIA

Product 33%

Value-Add 44%

Service & Maintenance

23%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5%


World BACS Market Champions

16

Product & Installed Systems Market Category

Total BACS Business by all players (Incl. Third Parties)


NA Lighting Controls Market

17

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source BSRIA

CAGR >10% CAGR <13%

• Need to reduce energy costs

• Necessity to comply with energy codes

• Need to promote sustainability

• Need to increase occupant comfort & productivity

Systems (Product + VAD)

Maintenance 3%

US$

Mill

ion

s

New Study coming out in 2016!


Smart Lighting Networks:

a Huge Growth Potential

18

Luminaires & Controls

Integrated Lighting Solutions

Smart Lighting Networks

Val

ue

Ad

d

Evolution


…expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.72% to pass 17 billion2014-2019 (TechNavio)

IoE Creates $14.4 Trillion of Value at Stake for Companies and Industries (Cisco)

25 billion devices connected to the Internet by 2015 and 50 billion by 2020 (Cisco)

15 billion devices will be communicating over the network by the year 2015 (IDC)

Our IoT world is growing at a breath-taking pace -- from 2 billion objects in 2006 to a projected 200 billion by 2020 (Intel)

The Internet of Things (IoT)


All heading for the cloud?

20

The Cloud – • 24h Universal Access • OPEX not CAPEX

Cyber security


IoT and the Cybersecurity Threat

21

Example of 2015 data breaches include:


Is NA Leading the Way?

22


New BSRIA office opened in Chicago in 2014, and operational since October 2015!

• Closer to North American clients

• Enhanced coordination of the network of research partners

…US focused content proposition!

New office…

Chicago

Multi-client market reports US Air Conditioning US Renewable Technologies US Heating reports US IBC (BACS, Smart Homes, Lighting

Controls, Fire & Security US Energy US IT & Cabling

US Custom and Consultancy Projects Market entry, acquisitions and partner

identification and market positioning Competitor intelligence (in/outside USA) Distribution channels analysis, vertical

markets analysis, pricing analysis, marketing mix analysis, and more…

Forecasts and trends

23

BSRIA NOW OPEN IN USA!


USA Contact

24

Raphael Chalogany Business Development Manager, North America Worldwide Market Intelligence

225 West Washington Street, Office 2218, Chicago, Illinois, 60606, USA

D : +1 312 753 6800 M : +44 (0) 7776 148 949 E : [email protected]

W : www.bsria.co.uk




Topic Person Time


08:00 am









08:30 - 08:45 am



08:45 - 09:00 am



09:00 - 09:15 am

Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am

Connected - Smart HVAC

Technology is here -

Fact or Fiction?

AHR Expo 2016

Jeremy Towler

Senior Manager - Energy & Smart Technologies –

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

January 2016


Agenda

1. VRF - Connected HVAC - Communicating room controllers impacts

2. Hydronic controls

3. Building energy management systems (BEMS)

• The new players

• Differentiated offers

• Retrofitting the aging building stock

4. Data centre cooling

27


Lots of older medium sized

buildings require renovation

28

Commercial buildings = 83% of all non-resident. buildings

Of building stock:

Of floor space:

• Outdated & inefficient HVAC technologies

• Only about 20-25% buildings have a BACS

• Even fewer have BEMS

• BACS rare in buildings under 100,000 ft2 (c. 10,000 m2)

• Latent opportunity!

Source: BSRIA / DOE /

EIA CBECS

5.4 million buildings

94.8%

50%

3.0%

14%

1.5%

14%

0.5%

11%

0.2%

11%


$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Global Sales - VRF and Chillers 2012 - 2017 (US $ Million)

VRF

Chillers

VRF Systems threatening

BACS market

• VRF solutions gaining market share - gap continues to widen

• Majority of leading HVAC suppliers include VRF solutions in their portfolios

• VRF solutions provide more localised control

• VRF control capability eating away at BACS system functionality & market

Source BSRIA


Cloud connected

solutions emerging

30


Smart Home Evolution

• Mass-market breakthrough • Telecoms/Utilities offer

“connected home” solutions. • IoT enables “ubiquitous Home” • Systems learn user behaviour/

lifestyle - respond accordingly

“50 billion devices by 2020” (Cisco)


Gen-Z expect solutions

32


PHASE 1 1. Germany 2. France 3. UK 4. Italy 5. Poland 6. Other

Europe

Big market for Hydronic valves - valve actuators –

controls in residential and commercial buildings

33

PHASE 2 7. China 8. North America

Belimo

Bosch

Danfoss

E-on

Honeywell

IBP

IMI

Intermatic (Grasslin)

Freese

Mohelenhoff

Pegler

Rehau

Oventrop

Siemens

Tacnova

Wilo

Vaillant

Sauter

Contributors include: JCI

Nexus Valves

Xylem

Bray Controls

Kele

Taco Comfort Solutions

Watts Water Technologies

Valve Mfrs Assoc. of Am. (VMA)

Invensys / Schneider Electric

• First study of its kind

• Already bought by

22 major clients

Available Jan/Feb

2016

Published Jan 2015


Hydronic controls market

residential / commercial split (by value)

34

Europe China North America(prov)

Residential USD

Commercial Market USD]


World BEMS*

Market growing at 14% CAGR

* Building Energy Management Systems

Source: BSRIA Quarterly update – Nov 2015

EU, 1,550, 45%

USA, 1,158, 33%

Rest of World, 764,

22%

Global BEMS Market Value 2014

Million US

Dollars

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Mill

ion

US

Do

llars

.

Total

EU

USA

Rest of World


Data Centre precision

cooling market

36

Source: BSRIA

Relentless economies of scale of companies like

Amazon Web Services, Google, Microsoft

IT Sector 88%

Telcoms 9%

Other Non-IT

3%

Enterprise 33%

Co-location 25%

"Web giant" 42%


Thank you!

37

Jeremy Towler BBA (GSBA Zurich). Betriebsoekonom dipl. oek. Senior Manager Energy and Smart Technologies

Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH

D : +44 (0)1344 465573 F : +44 (0)1344 465626 M : +44 (0)77 2527 8637 E : [email protected]

W : www.bsria.co.uk





Topic Person Time


08:00 am









08:30 - 08:45 am



08:45 - 09:00 am



09:00 - 09:15 am

Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am

Global Trends in

AC&R – Finding

the hot spots

AHR Expo 2016

Anette Meyer Holley

General Manager, AC&R & Consultancy


January 2016


AC Global Trends

Critical

Very Certain

Energy efficiency and renewables

Market globalization & industry consolidation

Refrigerants

VRF vs. Chiller and Unitary

Market Drivers

European economy slow to pick up

Market Restraints

Chinese slowdown

AC products going into the cloud

Legislation

Increasing focus on Chillers & Ventilation

US slowdown/ uncertainty

Smart buildings smart homes

40


AC Global Trends

World Air Conditioning Market from 2013 to 2020 (F) in unit terms

Total Units in 2015: 128 million

World Air Conditioning Market from 2013 to 2020 (F) in value (US$ million)

Total Value in 2015: US$ 95 billion


Quantitative 1. Demographics and value curve: criteria for specification 3 Brand and product perception 4.Comparison of products: VRF vs. alternatives 5. Market expectations for VRF 6. Pain point analysis: rating of shortcomings, challenges, weaknesses 7. Needs and requirements for VRF sales Qualitative 1. Why VRF? Advantages and disadvantages 2. VRF controls: Scalability, integration, advantages, disadvantages and implications 3. VRF suppliers 4. Market trends 5. Decision making process in commercial AC with reference to VRF in particular Residential 1. Why VRF in residential applications? Advantages and disadvantages 2. VRF suppliers 3 Market trends 4. Decision making process in residential AC with reference to VRF in particular Selected Case Studies

Market Potential for VRF in the USA:

A VOC study

42

Total Sample: 115 Audiences:

system specifiers Published: July 2015


AC Chiller Market

World Market for Chillers from 2013 to 2018 in value (US$m)

USA

2nd in the world


Global Market Shares 2014, % by value

Global AC Market Shares 2014


2016 US AC Service and

Maintenance Market study

Part Sale Service Contract Sale (may include part and labour)

On Call Assistance (no service contract)

Subcontracting

45


Residential /Light commercial

Commercial

Boxed fans (exhaust) for central house ventilation (typical 250 m³/h @ 150 Pa)

Rooftop fans (exhaust) for central house, small office, school ventilation. Includes fire resistant (400°C)

Small central HR ventilation unit (250-500 m³/h)

2016 Ventilation study- US, China, Europe

Central extract / supply. Includes mechanical extract (400°C) fire resistant.

Category: Roof fans

Category: Central extract

Category: Central Heat Recovery

Central HR ventilation unit

(500~5,500 m³/h)

Category: Central Heat Recovery

Category: Central balanced extract/supply

Air handling unit (~5,500- >100,000 m³/h)

Category: AHU

Category: Central supply

Positive input /multiple input ventilation

Need a better

segmentation

than airflow

range alone

46


2016 World AC&R & HP compressors

47

2013-14 – World

refrigeration; 9 countries

Regional reports with Global overview

RESEARCH EXPECTED TO START APRIL 2016


Anette Meyer Holley BA Economics & Business Administration General Manager, VACR and Consultancy Worldwide Market Intelligence

Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH

D : +44 (0)1344 465636 F : +44 (0)1344 465626 M : +44 (0)7725 278638 E : [email protected]

W : www.bsria.co.uk

Thank you!

48





Topic Person Time


08:00 am









08:30 - 08:45 am



08:45 - 09:00 am



09:00 - 09:15 am

Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am

How menacing will the new

supply chain controller be?

AHR Expo 2016

Andrew Giles


January 2016


Agenda

Which companies now head up the hvac supply chain & where?

What moves are the big hvac & controls companies making?

Smart companies? Can little guys compete in convergence?

Fundamental shift in residential/light commercial systems

Obliteration of the supply chain

The great divorce in the future of our industry & how to survive

51


Belimo 0.1%

Carrier / ALC 2.6%

Danfoss 0.2%

Delta 0.2% GFR

0.4% Honeywell

6.3% Johnson Controls 9.8%

Kieback & Peter 1.8%

Neuberger 0.4%

Plueth 0.1%

Priva 0.1%

Regin 0.2%

Samson 0.2%

Sauter 1.9%

Siemens Building Technologies

8.9%

Schneider Electric 3.2%

Trane 2.8% Trend

0.1% Other manufacturers 13.5%

Third parties 47.3%

Big players tightening their grip on the

installed BACS market

44% in 2013

Carrier / ALC 3.9% Honeywell

7.0%

Johnson Controls

12.5%

Kieback & Peter 1.2%

Siemens Electronics

9.9%

Schneider 3.8%

Trane 3.7%

Other manufacturers

17.7%

Third parties 40.3%


Access

Lighting

CCTV

AV - Signage

Power

Monitoring

Data, video

Energy

BACS/HVAC

Smoke detector

Small can be powerful


Greener electricity

Efficiency legislation

Market growth

Need for control

Smart grid

advances

More expensive

electricity

Complexity

of solutions

Decentralised

energy

generation

Low gas prices

Powerful drivers for the HVAC market Challenging environment for customers and suppliers

54

Market difficulty

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCPCkjpWWhsgCFUGyFAodCesLVg&url=https://prezi.com/94wwdpgxk1to/jerome-bruner/&bvm=bv.103073922,d.d24&psig=AFQjCNGz-xZJfofVZtYdOEbNmotHKXVo-g&ust=1442857744671620


Hybrid heating installations

2020 and beyond

• Driven by low / zero / plus energy home standards • Driven by energy prices (zero energy bill homes)

• Driven by legislation

Heat pump + Solar thermals

Heat pumps + PV

Heat pumps + PV

PV Thermal + Heat pump

HRV

Underfloor heating:

Electric -1st floor

Wet – ground floor

+ Solar PV + HRV HRV

Solar thermals

55


Supply chain obliteration for China air

conditioning

56

Until 2000 exclusive distributors

were commonly to sell nationwide

Home appliance mass retailers

now purchase direct and control

the first and second tier cities

since 2000 – now 80% of sales.

Also signalled death of flagship

company owned stores

E commerce is used in third and

fourth-tier cities (<500,000

people) – Suning and Gome do both

– JD online with own logisitics

– Tmall online mainly in small towns

using third party logistics

Source:JARN


Long term outlook 2020/25/30

Focus : UK

‘000 units

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030

Fixed electric heat emitters

Heat Interface Unit **

Fuel cell

mCHP

Gas heat pump

Air to air heat pump

Exhaust air heat pump

Ground to water heat pump

Air to water heat pump

Biomass boiler

Coal boiler*

Oil boiler

Gas boiler -

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030

‘000 units New build Existing dwellings

57

70%


Andrew Giles MA Director of Worldwide Market Intelligence

Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH D : +44 (0)1344 456 624 F : +44 (0)1344 465626

M : +44 (0)7900 344 708 E : [email protected] W : www.bsria.co.uk

Thank you!

58


bsria world market intelligence industry briefing - ahr expo 2016

Data & Analytics