business opportunity with tps -...
TRANSCRIPT
1
전 홍 범[email protected]
연구개발본부
Business Opportunity with TPSBusiness Opportunity with TPS
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
목 차
Telecom의 위기
New Opportunities
Managed Service
결언
2
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Telecom의 위기
500,000 jobs lost in last two years
11 of the top 25 money losing firms in 2001 were in telecom, a total of $107B of losses
$470B of debt
61 service provider bankruptcies
Fraud, indictments, law suits
Telecom Collapse
Declining prices for voice
Declining number of phone lines
Declining prices/bit/sec
Effects of past over-investment
High cost of entering new business
Shift from phone and fax to email
Shift from wired to wireless
Shift from TDM to IP
Market Trends
Dave Passmore, NGN2002
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
전세계 통신망사업자 매출/투자비
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Revenue
Capex
(Revenue & Capex : RHK 보고서, 2002.11.)
Perc
e nt
Year
3
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
인터넷 매출액 변화 추이
북미/유럽의 인터넷 매출액은 감소세로 반전
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 Quarter/Year
$ bi
ll ion
s
(Internet Revenues : STARtrax2002 conference)
2001 : $15.3 billion
2002 : $14.7 billion (-4 %)
(인터넷 매출액 : IP 패킷 전달 능력을 이용하는 사업군의 매출총액)
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Revenue-per-Bit
Revenue-per-bit의 감소추세 (북미)
Traffic : 107%
Revenue : 17%
Revenue/bit : -45%
Traffic : 85%
Revenue : -11%Revenue/bit : -52%
(2001) (2002)
(연간 증감율 : STARtrax2002 conference)
4
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Cash Cow
Carrier 사업자의 성장 엔진의 변화
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003
시내전화
LM
2002
??
2005
초고속 인터넷
• IP• Broadband• 유무선 통합• E-portal4대 엔진
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
New Opportunities
5
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Carrier 사업자의 고민
3 C’s
CompetitionCapacity
Characterlessness
각 사업분야별 다수의 경쟁자
가격경쟁의 요인
끝없는 용량 확대
과도한 투자를 유도
사업자간 비차별성 서비스 제공
시장선점을 위한 무리수 강요
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Revenue vs. Expense
여전히 유효한 매출 vs. 비용 Paradigm
(Provider Side)(Customer Side)
Revenue increased area Expense decreased area
Diverse Services
High Price
Time to Market
Network Efficiency
Capacity Optimization
Technology Convergence
6
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Carrier 사업자의 선택
3 Cs 극복을 위한 방안(인수/합병, 제휴, de-regulation과 같은 non-technical relative issue는 고려 않음)
CompetitionCapacity
Characterlessness
각 사업분야별 다수의 경쟁자
가격경쟁의 요인
끝없는 용량 확대
과도한 투자를 유도
사업자간 비차별성 서비스 제공
시장선점을 위한 무리수 강요
Differentiated servicesDifferentiated services
Low PriceLow PriceNetwork EngineeringNetwork
Engineering
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
개선 방향
매출/비용 Paradigm과 3 Cs 방안 비교
(Provider Side)(Customer Side)
Revenue increased area Expense decreased area
Network Efficiency
Capacity Optimization
Technology Convergence
Diverse Services
High Price
Time to MarketDifferentiated servicesDifferentiated services
Network EngineeringNetwork
Engineering
Low PriceLow Price
7
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
서비스 차별화
ADSL
VDSL
Leased Line(전용회선, VPN)
Ethernet
PSTN
Carrier A
Carrier B
Carrier C
Technique’s ownprice & bandwidth
Something More?Something More?
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Horizontal Model
Horizontal Differentiated Service기존 서비스의 Packaging
Total revenue의 감소
Something More?Something More? 인터넷 접속
인터넷접속 + VoIP
인터넷접속 + 전화 + ? Carrier A
Carrier B
Carrier C
8
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Vertical Model
Vertical Differentiated Service기존 Infra를 활용하는 부가 서비스와의 Synergy
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
네트워크서비스
부가서비스
(User) (Network) (Server)
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Something more !
Home-networking, Broadband, etc. IDC, Contents, etc.전용회선, VPN, 유무선통합, etc.
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Managed Service
9
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Managed Service
Telecom Market 예측
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
5
10
15
20
Billion USD
(출처 : 포레스터 리서치, 2001)
접속 서비스
Co-location 서비스
Network Managed 서비스
Application Managed 서비스
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Managed Service 전망
Managed Service에 대한 시장 예측
(E-business 서비스 부문별 시장 전망 : Gartner 보고서 참조)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2001 2002 2003 2004
비즈니스 프로세스/거래관리 관리서비스 교육과 훈련개발 및 통합 컨설팅 S/W 관리와 지원
H/W 관리와 지원
Mill
ion
USD
year
10
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Application Managed Service- 서비스 특성별 관리 (품질, 대역폭, 우선순위 등)
Network Managed Service• 가입자가 이용하는 통신망에 대한 monitoring, reporting, operation 및 management
Managed Service 개요
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
(User) (network) (Server)
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Best Efforts 서비스
서비스 전달 현실
Bandwidth-intensive Applications(image transfer, Streaming media,etc.)
Unsanctioned Applications(Net surfing, Napster, News,etc.)
Mission-Critical Applications(VoIP, Oracle, SAP,etc.)
Definite CapacityDefinite Capacity
• Best efforts 환경에서는 Mission-critical applications가 전혀 보호를 받을 수 없음
11
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
서비스별 대역폭 점유율
Before Management
Web Browsing
28%
20%Napster
12%
File Transfers9%
Real Audio8%
Oracle7%
Citrix5%
Internet Gaming5%
Other4%
TN3270 2%
(출처 : IDC 500 survey)
Web Browsing
28%
20%Napster
12%
File Transfers9%
Real Audio8%
Oracle7%
Citrix5%
Internet Gaming5%
Other4%
TN3270 2%
투자비 : $107.8 M 투자비 : $215.6 M
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
서비스별 대역폭 점유율
After Management
Web Browsing
28%
20%Napster
12%
File Transfers9%
Real Audio8%
Oracle7%
Citrix5%
Internet Gaming5%
Other4%
TN3270 2%
Web Browsing20%
Email 15%
Napster8%
File Transfers13%Real Audio2%
Oracle13%
Citrix13%
Internet Gaming10%
Other4%
TN3270 2%
투자비 : $107.8 M 투자비 : $107.8M + α
12
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Bandwidth Management
Revenue Generating 서비스에 대한 network engineering (QoS적용)
- Packet voice, 업무용 application, Multimedia conferencing와 같은 실시간 품질 민감형트래픽은 더욱 늘어날 것이며,
- 동시에 압축기술의 발전으로 인해, 서비스 품질의 저하는 Revenue에 직접적인 영향을 끼칠것으로 예측됨
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Bundling – Triple Play Service
Per Lindgren, Netinsight
13
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Network Implementation
QoS-Enabled IP Network 구축일반 인터넷 트래픽은 기존 best-effort network로 routing
방송, VoD, 전용선 등의 특수 트래픽은 QoS enabled network로routing
IDC
GMPLS( IP/WDM )
VPN IDC
Best EffortIP Network
QoS enabledIP Network
for time-critical service
for time-critical service
for non time-critical service
for non time-critical service
Mobile
ATM
L/LxDSL
L/L
Ethernet
Home Network Access Network IP Network Services
Internet
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
QoS-enabled Layer Model
Telcordia
14
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
TPS based on Softswitch
MGC
MG
Accounting Server
Directory Server
Rating Server
Web Provisioning
Server
NetworkMng.
Server
IN Service
Network Mng
Service Mng
PSTN
TV
MGVideo
QoS Guaranteed IP Network
Softswitch
MGMobile
Softswitch HG
MG
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
결론
15
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
New Paradigm with QoS
Telecom Paradigm vs. QoS
(Provider Side)(Customer Side)
Revenue increased area Expense decreased area
Diverse Services
High Price
Time to Market
Network Efficiency
Capacity Optimization
Technology Convergence
QoS-based infrastructure
고품질 서비스 욕구 수용
새로운 부가서비스의 창출
CAPEX
& OPEX
saving
CRLCRL제제55회회 추모워크샵추모워크샵
TPS (triple play service)TPS (triple play service)-- Ready IP TechnologyReady IP Technology
Revenue with QoS
Carrier revenue vs. QoS
Without QoSWithout QoS
With QoSWith QoS
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003
시내전화
LM
2002 2005
초고속 인터넷
• IP• Broadband• 유무선 통합• E-portal4대 엔진