Business Process Simulation: How to get value out of it

Denis Gagné,www.BusinessProcessIncubator.comChair BPMN MIWG at OMGBPMN 2.0 FTF Member at OMGBPMN 2.1 RTF Member at OMGCMMN Submission at OMGChair BPSWG at WfMCXPDL Co-Editor at WfMC

Marketing Poster of BPM

• “Doing things right” Do more with less

Business Efficiency

• Quickly adapt to changing Business Conditions

Business Agility

• Current status, outcome, compliance

Business Insight

Improvement vs. Management

Process ImprovementIs project based

Is discontinuous improvement

Addresses particular process problems

Process ManagementIs not project based but a management philosophy

Is a continuous improvement culture

Is about process-based management

Will require some culture change

Poor Performing Processes

May lead to:Delays

Back log

Refund Claims

Angry customers

Lost of goodwill (Mission Critical)

Lost of lives (Life Critical)

Gain Insight: Thoroughly analyse business process in a safe isolated environment prior to Deploying

BPMN Process Diagram

www.BPMNVisioModeler.com www.BPMNWebModeler.com

Simulation for Process Analysis

Provides a priori Insight

Can be Effective Process Analysis tool for:Alternative Evaluation

Decision Support

Performance Prediction

Optimization

Benefits of Simulation

Advantages of simulation over testing on the real world include:

Lower relative cost of business transformation explorations

Speed of validation of potential scenarios

No disturbance to current operations

Types of Process Analysisusing Simulation

Structural AnalysisThe structural aspects (configuration) of a process model

Usually Statistical Analysis (using static methods)

Capacity AnalysisThe capacity aspects of a process model

Usually Dynamic Analysis (using discreet simulation methods)

When is Numeric Simulation most Appropriate

Capacity analysis of processes that potentially areHighly Variable

Variability makes outcomes difficult if not impossible to predict

InterdependentChanges in one process affect other processes

ComplexComplex structure or complex behavior

Capacity ConstraintsHard resources constraints (as independent variables)

Process Improvement Projectusing Simulation

Get the Goal RightClearly define the goal or problem to be investigated using simulation

Clearly state the objectives of the simulation investigation

Match Expertise to Desired ExperimentationDifferent levels of Investigation Complexity

Get the Model RightModel Granularity

Model Parameterization

Clearly Define the Goal

Intentions ExamplesReduce headcounts or expenses

Improve process predictability or reliability

Increase throughput

Increase output

Ensure SLA

Design the Experiment AccordinglyIndependent vs dependent variables

Same process model under different parameterisations

Different process models under same parameterization

Number of distinct model settings to be run

The experiment should provide insight

The experiment should help inform a decision

The experiment should be in response to clearly defined objectives that are relevant to a decision

Expertise vs Experimentation

Verify Process Structure and logic Optimization

Learning via Experimentations

Quantitative

AnalysisNovice

Expert

Expert

Novice

Process Modeling

Simulation

Model Granularity

Pick the right level of process model abstractione.g. What is an atomic task

For example a certain level of details may suitable to compare relative throughput of alternative process designs while not be detailed enough to provide reliable prediction of actual throughput

Model Input Parameterization

Setting Input parameters for process model elements to reflect external stimulation

e.g. Arrival Patterns

When randomness is introduced replications should be used Replication = same scenario but with different sequences of random variables

e.g. repeated coin toss

Warm up periods may be requiredReflect the notion of work in progress (WIP)

Time during which results are either not collected, or which can be separated off from the main results collection period

e.g. A bank (opens empty and idle each day) model does not require warm-up (and indeed should not have warm-up). Common examples of situations requiring warm-up are manufacturing in general, hospital emergency rooms, 24-hour telephone exchanges, etc

Demo

Randomness and likelihood

When Examining Results

Unexpected result are not necessarily a problemPrimary reason for your simulation experimentation

Need to find an explanation

Will provide enlightenment of actual process behavior vs assumed process behavior

Unexplainable results are a problem

Simulation is often a process of discovery

BPSim Scope

Complements existing process modeling standards

“Not Reinvent the Wheel”

Why BPSim

Encourage wider adoption of simulation within BPM community through a standards led approach

Process simulation is a valuable technique to support process design, reduce risk of change and improve efficiency in the organisation

Provide a framework for the specification of simulation scenario data and results as a firm foundation for implementation

Open interchange of simulation scenario data between modeling tool, simulator, results analysis/presentation tool

BPSim Element Parameters

Each element parameter of a scenario references a specific element of a process within the business process model

Each element of the business process model may be parameterized with zero or multiple element parameters

P

Perspectives TimeParameters ControlParameters ResourceParameters CostParameters InstanceParameters PriorityParameters

Demo

Business Process Simulation Best Practices

The Right Model for the Right GoalAlign Modeling Objectives with Simulation Objectives

Abstraction

Fidelity

Validity (soundness and completeness)

The Right Answer to the Right QuestionMake sure to instrument your business process model with parameters that are actual indicators (influencers) of what you wish to explore

The Right Expert for the Right TaskAlthough conceptually simple to grasp, successfully (meaningfully) using numerical simulation for business modeling still requires some expertise (Advanced Mathematical Skills)

Discussions & Questions

www.BPSim.org

dgagne@trisotech.com