bvsc+-+bao+cao+phan+tich+vietnam+airlines_2

TNG CNG TY HNG KHNG VIT NAM VIETNAM AIRLINES

Chuyn vin phn tch: Nguyn Th Hi Yn [email protected]

Tng cng ty Hng khng Vit Nam Vietnam Airlines

Pht hnh c phiu ln u ra cng chng.

Tng cng ty Hng Khng Vit Nam c c phn ha theo hnh thc gi nguyn phn vn nh

nc, pht hnh thm c phiu tng vn iu l. Theo , vn iu l sau khi c phn ha l

14.102 t ng, trong Nh nc nm gi 75% do B Giao thng vn ti lm i din ch s hu.

Cng ty s thc hin pht hnh thm 25% cho 4 i tng: (1) nh u t tham gia u gi c phn

c t chc vo ngy 14/11/2014; (2) nh u t chin lc nc ngoi l tp on, hng hng

khng nc ngoi hoc l nh u t ti chnh nc ngoi v c tin hnh song song vi qu

trnh trin khai IPO trong nc; (3) Bn u i cho cn b cng nhn vin; (4) bn u i cho t chc

cng on.

C ng T l (%)

S c phn (c phiu)

Gi tr (triu ng)

Gi bn

Nh nc 75,00% 1.057.638.000 10.576.638

Pht hnh thm 25,00% 352.546.000 3.525.546

Trong

- CP u gi cng khai 3,48% 49.009.008 490.009 Gi khi im 22.300 ng/cp

- CP bn cho NT chin lc 20,00% 282.036.800 2.820.036 Gi tha thun nhng khng

thp hn gi u BQ thp nht

- ESOP theo thm nin cng tc 0,80% 11.320.600 113.320 60% gi u BQ thp nht

- ESOP theo cam kt lm vic

tip cho CTCP 0,67% 9.474.500 94.745 Bng gi u BQ thp nht

- Cng on 0,05% 705.092 7.051 60% gi u BQ thp nht

Vn iu l sau CPH 100% 1.410.184.000 14.101.840

Theo quyt nh s 1611/Q-TTg ngy 10/09/2014 v ph duyt Phng n C phn ha Tng Cng

ty Hng khng Vit Nam, Cng ty s c qun l v s dng s tin thng d thu t c phn ha.

Phn tin ny s c dng gp b sung phn vn Nh nc khi Cng ty tng vn iu l v duy

tr mc s hu nh nc ti thiu 65% vn iu l.

im nhn u t.

(1) Vietnam Airlines l doanh nghip chim th phn chi phi trn th trng hng khng Vit

Nam.

V th chi phi ca Vietnam Airlines c hnh thnh da trn cc yu t:

- S hu mt mng ng bay ni a ln nht, ng bay quc t ti cc th trng du lch trng

im ca Vit Nam v cc slot sn bay nhng cng hng khng ln trn th gii.

- Mng li kinh doanh v h thng phn phi c tm bao ph rng.

- H thng h tng k thut phc v bay v c s phc v mt t hon chnh.

2

Bo co phn tch Vietnam Airlines

(2) Sn phm a dng cho nhiu phn khc khch hng.

i theo chin lc thng hiu kp t nm 2012, trong Vietnam Airlines s cung cp sn phm

cho phn khc khch hng doanh thu trung v cao cp, cn Jetstar Pacific s phc v khch hng

phn khc doanh thu thp. Mc tiu ca Cng ty s duy tr th phn ni a ca c 2 hng t 70% -

72%.

(3) Hot ng kinh doanh vn ti hng khng km hiu qu trong giai on trc c phn ha

So snh vi cc hng hng khng khc trong khu vc Chu , quy m doanh thu ca Vietnam

Airlines cn kh nh v hiu qu cng mc thp. Tuy nhin, sau khi c phn ha, hot ng s c

kh nng ci thin qua cc bin php tng doanh thu bng cch pht trin mng ng bay, tng

cng hp tc vi lin minh Skyteam v cc bin php gim chi ph trong quan trng nht l

gim chi ph nhin liu bay.

(4) Theo k hoch, hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines s ci thin ng k t nm 2016

Trong k hoch kinh doanh giai on 2014 2018, Vietnam Airlines t mc tiu doanh thu tng

bnh qun 16,7%/nm v li nhun tng mnh 83,8%/nm, da trn k hoch i mi i bay hin

nay sang my bay thn rng th h mi nh A350-900 v B787-9 nng cp cc cht lng dch

v k vng tng s lng khch c thu nhp cao. Ngoi ra, cc dng my bay mi s gip gim tiu

hao nhin liu v gim cc chi ph bo tr, bo dng t c th ci thin mnh v bin li nhun.

Vi tc tng trng nh k hoch n nm 2016 cc ch tiu nh gi ca Vietnam Airlines s v

mc hp l, PE v PB ln lt l 12x v 1,43x.

(5) u t mnh vo pht trin i bay v mng ng bay

Giai on 2014 2018, Cng ty s u t 63.297 t ng pht trin i bay, mc tiu n 2018,

Vietnam Airlines s c i bay 116 vi kh nng tit kim nhin liu s c ngha rt quan trng ci

thin hiu qu hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines.

(6) C hi t tng trng ca ngnh du lch v tng trng kinh t v hi nhp ca Vit Nam

Theo nh gi ca BMI, lng khch du lch n Vit Nam (inbound) v khch i du lch nc ngoi

(outbound) tng trng bnh qun ln lt 5,3% v 11,4% trong giai on 2014 2018. Bn cnh

ngun khch du lch v giao thng kinh t, Vit Nam vi i hnh tu bay so vi dn s ang cn

thp, t l s dng dch v hng khng ca ngi dn vn cn kh thp so vi mt bng khu vc v

thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tng s l nhng yu t thc y s pht trin ca ngnh hng

khng.

Ri ro cn lu

(1) H tng k thut cng hng khng cn yu gy hn ch cho vic pht trin i bay.

(2) Hiu qu hot ng ph thuc nhiu vo gi nguyn liu.

(3) Cnh tranh ngy cng tng

3


Doanh nghip chim th phn chi phi th trng hng khng

Vit Nam

Tng cng ty hng khng Vit Nam (Vietnam Airlines) l doanh nghip u tin c thnh lp trong ngnh

hng khng dn dng Vit Nam. Sau qu trnh hn 20 nm hnh thnh v pht trin, hin nay Vietnam

Airlines l mt thng hiu ln nm gi th phn chi phi trn th trng hng khng Vit Nam. Doanh thu t

vn chuyn hnh khch v hng ha em li doanh thu chnh cho Cng ty trong doanh thu t vn ti

hnh khch, hnh l chim 86% tng doanh thu v doanh thu vn ti hng ha, bu kin chim 8% tng

doanh thu. V th chi phi ca Vietnam Airlines c hnh thnh da trn cc yu t:

S hu mt mng ng bay ni a ln nht, ng bay quc t ti cc th trng du lch trong

im ca Vit Nam v cc slot sn bay nhng cng hng khng ln trn th gii

Th phn vn chuyn hnh khch quc t Th phn vn chuyn hnh khch ni a

Ngun: Vietnam Airlines

Hin nay, th trng hng khng ni a ang c khai thc bi 3 hng hng khng Vietnam Airlines,

Jetstar Pacific (cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines nm gi 67,83%) v Vietjet Air, Vietnam Airlines ang l

n v s hu mt mng ng bay mnh nht ph khp cc vng min l nhng im du lch ni ting ca

Vit Nam v nhng vng kinh t pht trin. Cc ng bay c khai thc vi tn sut cao, cc chuyn bay

tri u trong ngy. Nm 2013, Vietnam Airlines chim 63% th phn vn chuyn hnh khch ni a, k n

l cng ty Vietjet Air vi 23%.

S lng ng bay v im n ca cc hng hng khng ni a

Vietnam Airlines Vietjet Air Jetstar Pacific

ng bay 39 19 18

im n 21 13 10

Ngun: BVSC tng hp

40.6%

3.8%

3.6%

52.0%

Vietnam Airlines Thai Airways

Singapore Airlines Khc

63.2%14.3%

22.5%

Vietnam Airlines Jetstar Pacific

Vietjet Air

4


Ngoi ra, Vietnam Airlines cng ang l doanh nghip c th phn chi phi i vi mng ng bay quc t

i/n Vit Nam. Trong hn 20 hng my bay c ng bay n Vit Nam, Vietnam Airlines ang c th

mnh cc ng bay quc t Vit Nam vi khu vc ng Bc (Nht Bn, Hn Quc, Trung Quc, i

Loan), Chu u (Php, c, Anh, Nga) v ng bay tiu vng Campuchia Lo Myamma. Cc nc

ng Bc l cc quc gia c kim ngch giao thng ln nht vi Vit Nam ng gp 43% kim ngch xut

nhp khu ca c nc, ng thi cng l th trng chim 48% tng s lng khch du lch quc t n

Vit Nam, do s hu ng bay Vit Nam ti cc khu vc ny ang l th mnh ca Vietnam Airlines.

i vi ng bay tiu vng Campuchia Lo Myamma, nh v tr ca ng khu vc nn Vit Nam c li

th v pht trin du lch lin kt vng cng nh tim nng pht trin kinh t ca khu vc nht l ti Myanma

thu ht nhiu lt khch s dng cc ng bay ca Vietnam Airlines ti tiu vng Campuchia Lo

Myanma.

Lng khch quc t n Vit Nam v kim ngch giao thng

ca cc th trng c ng bay ca VNA

Lng khch quc t n VN Gi tr kim ngch XNK nm 2013

S lng (lt) T trng (%) Gi tr (USD) T trng (%)

ng Bc 3,659,561 48.3% 114,372 43.3%

Chu u 790,408 10.4% 17,930 6.8%

Th trng khc 3,122,383 41.2% 131,763 49.9%

Tng cng 7,572,352 100% 264,065 49.9%

Ngun: Tng cc hi quan, Tng cc du lch

c bit, Vietnam Airlines ang c li th t vic s hu cc slot (thi gian n v i t mt sn bay ginh

cho mt my bay vo mt ngy gi nht nh) ti cc sn bay Vit Nam v cc sn bay quc t. Vietnam

Airlines ang s hu khong 400 slot ti cc sn bay quc t trong c Bc Kinh, Tokyo, Php, Hong Kong

l cc sn bay nm trong top 10 cc sn bay c mt khai thc cao. i vi cc slot ti sn bay ni a, tuy

khng cn quyn iu phi slot ti sn bay Tn Sn Nht v Ni Bi nhng vi lng ln cc slot hin nay

m Vietnam Airlines ang s hu cng l li th quan trng Cng ty c th m phn trao i slot vi cc

hng hng khng khc khi c nhu cu tng tn sut bay hoc m cc tuyn bay mi.

Mng li kinh doanh v h thng phn phi c tm bao ph rng. H thng kinh doanh bn hng

ca Vietnam Airlines bao gm cc knh: (1) cc phng v, chi nhnh ca Vietnam Airlines trong v ngoi

nc; (2) Bn v trc tuyn t trang web ca Vietnam Airlines; (3) bn gin tip qua cc i l, tng i

l c Vietnam Airlines ch nh v cc cng ty du lch ti cc th trng. Trong , knh bn hng cho

cc i l vi kh nng bao ph rng v gip cho Hng c kh nng phc v cho nhiu i tng khch

hng ang l mt knh bn hng quan trng nht ng gp n 90% doanh thu bn v ca Vietnam

Airlines. Knh bn hng trc tuyn ng gp khong 6,3% tng doanh thu, tuy t trng ng gp cn nh

nhng knh bn ny c u im l kh nng tip cn khch hng tt v gim c chi ph bn hng ng

thi s c xu hng tng ln trong thi gian ti cng vi s pht trin ca cng ngh thng tin. Mc tiu

ca Vietnam Airlines s tng doanh thu bn v t knh bn hng trc tip thng qua website v in thoi

s ng gp khong 15% tng doanh thu vo nm 2018.

5


H thng h tng k thut phc v bay v c s phc v mt t hon chnh. phc v cho hot

ng vn ti hng khng, Vietnam Airlines kt np v thnh lp cc cng ty con v thnh vin to

thnh mt chui gi tr h tr cho cho hot ng bay v cc dch v hng khng. Vi 14 n vi trc

thuc, 18 cng ty con v 08 cng ty lin kt, cc thnh vin ny khng ch cung cp cc sn phm dch

v cho hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines m cn phc v cho cc hng hng khng ni a v nc ngoi

hot ng ti cc sn bay Vit Nam. Trong , c mt s cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines cung cp cc

sn phm dch v c th cho ngnh hng khng v chim th phn chi phi, ng k n l VINAPCO

(cng ty cung cp nhin liu hng khng Jet A-1 ti Vit Nam, chim 90% th phn) v VAECO (cng ty

duy nht ti Vit Nam cung cp cc dch v k thut bo dng my bay).

Sn phm a dng cho nhiu phn khc khch hng

Vietnam Airlines hot ng di hnh thc hng hng khng truyn thng t khi thnh lp cho ti nay, tuy

nhin t nm 2012 Cng ty bt u tham gia vo th trng hng khng gi r (LCC Low cost carriers)

bng vic tip nhn hng hng khng Jetstar Pacific Airlines JPA. Cng vi JPA, Vietnam Airlines ang

thc hin chin lc thng hiu kp cung cp sn phm a dng cho nhiu phn khc khch hng. Trong

, Vietnam Airlines s cung cp sn phm cho phn khc khch hng doanh thu trung v cao cp, cn JPA

s phc v khch hng phn khc doanh thu thp. Chin lc thng hiu kp ny ang c kh nhiu

hng hng khng trn th gii p dng v em li kt qu kh tt nh hng hng khng Thai Airways vi

hai thng hiu hng khng gi r Thai Air Asia v Nok Air hay Singapore Airlines vi thng hiu Scoot

Airlines

M hnh hng hng khng gi r l m hnh pht trin kh mnh trong hai thp k gn y. Trong m hnh

ny, hng s tp trung gim chi ph hot ng bng vic la chn nhng sn bay gi r, ch s dng mt loi

my bay, bn v trc tip qua mng internet L n v u tin cung cp sn phm dch v bay gi r, JPA

hin ang hot ng trn cc ng bay ni a v quc t. Vi ng bay ni a, i th cnh tranh cng

phn khc vi JPA l Vietjet Air cn i vi ng bay quc t t Vit Nam JPA phi cnh tranh vi kh

nhiu hng hng khng nh Vietjet Air, Air Asia, Cebu Airlines, Lion Airlines Sau khi Vietnam Airlines nhn

chuyn giao i din vn Nh nc t SCIC ti JPA (nm 2012) v thc hin vic ti c cu, hot ng ca

JPA c nhng thay i tuy nhin khong thi gian ny cng l thi im Vietjet Air bt u trin khai cc

ng bay ni a theo m hnh hng hng khng gi r vi i hnh my bay mi, gi bn thp tr thnh

mt thch thc ln trong qu trnh c cu ci thin hot ng ca JPA. Do , mc d hiu qu hot ng

ci thin so vi cc nm trc nhng JPA vn tip tc l trong 2 nm 2012 v 2013. K vng vi vic

khai thc tt i bay mi A320 (bt u t u nm 2013) v k hoch pht trin thm tu bay mi, hot

ng ca JPA s tt hn trong thi gian ti.

i vi Vietnam Airlines, trong chin lc pht trin giai on 2015 2016, Cng ty s xy dng thng

hiu Vietnam Airlines thnh hng hng khng 4 sao theo tiu chun quc t v hng ti tiu chun 5 sao

trong giai on 2017 2018. Vi chin lc pht trin thng hiu kp ny, Vietnam Airlines cng vi

Jetstar Pacific Airlines s duy tr th phn ni a ca c 2 hng t 70% - 72%.

6


Hot ng vn ti hng khng km hiu qu trong giai on

trc c phn ha

Lin tc 5 nm qua, kt qu hot ng kinh doanh vn ti hng khng ca Vietnam Airlines u khng hiu

qu. Li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh chnh (cng ty m) u ghi nhn l do s bin ng ca 3 chi ph:

chi ph nguyn liu, chi ph dch v mua ngoi v chi ph ti chnh.

Chi ph nguyn liu chim khong 37% - 38% trong chi ph ca hot ng kinh doanh vn ti hng khng 3

nm gn y, trong phn ln l chi ph cho nguyn liu xng Jet A-1 do bin ng gi du m trn

th gii s c tc ng ng k n chi ph nguyn liu ca Cng ty. hn ch cc tc ng ca bin

ng gi nguyn liu, Vietnam Airlines thc hin mt s bin php nh s dng cng c bo him gi

nguyn liu, p dng chnh sch ph thu gi v khi gi nguyn liu tng cao, gim chi ph nguyn liu bng

cch i mi i tu bay v phi hp vi IATA trin khai thc hin chng trnh bay tit kim. Cc bin

php ny k vng s l yu t chnh ci thin hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines thi gian ti. Ngoi ra, trong

ngn hn Cng ty cn c h tr bi xu hng gim ca gi du m, s gip cho li nhun ca 6 thng

cui nm tch cc hn na u nm 2014.

Chi ph dch v mua ngoi l nhm c t trng ln nht khong 42% - 43% tng chi ph trong 3 nm 2011

2013. Chi ph thu my bay, mua v thu chuyn/ti/ch l loi chi ph ln nht trong chi ph dch v

mua ngoi. Do nhu cu pht trin mng ng bay, Vietnam Airlines tng thu thm my bay v ng

thi cc khon ph ny c thanh ton bng ngoi t do cng tc ng lm tng chi ph dch v mua

ngoi trong thi gian qua. Sp ti, nhu cu thu thm phng tin bay pht trin mng ng bay s

tip tc lm tng chi ph dch v mua ngoi nhng chng ti cho rng iu ny s thc y tng trng

doanh thu tt hn.

Chi ph ti chnh chim mt t trng khng cao trong c cu chi ph khong t 4% - 5,5% nhng l

khon mc c mc bin ng ln trong 3 nm qua. Cui nm 2013, n vay ngn v di hn chim

khong 63% tng ti sn ca Cng ty m trong a s l vay di hn. Nh c nh nc bo lnh

nn Vietnam Airlines lun c c li sut vay kh thp khong 6,2% cho VND, bnh qun 4,6% cho

khon vay bng USD v 2,1% cho khon vay EUR. V v phn ln cc khon vay l bng ngoi t nn

Cng ty phi chu tc ng mnh t thay i t gi. Xu hng sp ti, d n vay s tip tc tng ti

tr cho cc d n u t c bn ca Vietnam Airlines v li sut c xu hng i ln vi cc khon vay

ngoi t kt hp cng t gi tng, chi ph ti chnh s tip tc bin ng tng trong thi gian ti.

C cu chi ph sn xut theo yu t

Ngun:Vietnam Airlines

38%

7%6%

43%

1%

5%

0%

Chi ph nguyn vt liu

Chi ph cng nhn

Khu hao TSC

Chi ph dch v mua ngoi

Chi ph sn xut kinh doanh khc

Chi ph ti chnh

Chi ph khc

7


Chnh do s bin ng ca 3 nhm chi ph ny nn li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty m

b l nhng nh b p bng li nhun khc nn Cng ty m vn ghi nhn li nhun dng kh khim tn

trong 3 nm qua. T c th thy li nhun hp nht ca Vietnam Airlines ang c ng gp chnh t

kt qu kinh doanh ca cc Cng ty con. Trong s 18 cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines ch c hai cng ty l

Hng hng khng Campuchia Angkor Air v Jetstar Pacific Airlines l trong nm 2013, cc cng ty cn li

u hot ng c li nhun c bit cc cng ty cung cp sut n hng khng v dch v giao nhn hng

ha c t sut li nhun rng v hiu qu li nhun trn vn rt cao.

Cc cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines c hiu qu hot ng cao

Vn iu

l

% VNA

Doanh thu

LNST Bin LNST

ROE

CT TNHH Giao nhn hng ha VINAKO t ng 9 65% 102 14.6 14.4% 58.6%

CTCP Sut n hng khng Ni Bi NCS t ng 50 60% 379 31.6 8.3% 28.1%

CT TNHH MTV Sut n Hng khng VN VACS triu USD 4 100% 26 4.3 16.8% 61.0%

CTCP Dch v hng ha Ni Bi NCTS t ng 96 55% 575 247.5 43.1% 86.0%

CT TNHH Dch v hng ha Tn Sn Nht TCS t ng 94 55% 441 131.8 29.9% 59.0%

Ngun: VNA

Nhn chung, do hot ng chnh khng hiu qu nn kt qu hp nht ca Vietnam Airlines cng khng cao.

So snh vi cc hng hng khng khc trong khu vc Chu , quy m doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines cn

kh nh v hiu qu cng mc thp. Tuy nhin, chng ti nh gi sau khi c phn ha, cc bin php

tng doanh thu bng cch pht trin mng ng bay, tng cng hp tc vi lin minh Skyteam v cc

bin php gim chi ph trong quan trng nht l gim chi ph nhin liu bay, th hiu qu hot ng ca

Vietnam Airlines s ci thin tt hn.

EBIT/

Doanh thu

EBITDA/

Doanh thu ROE ROA PB PE

Singapore Airlines 4.60 15.57 2.71 1.58 1.08 37.47

Air China 7.20 18.14 10.77 2.87 6.19 97.25

Cathay Pacific Airlines 4.60 11.38 5.31 2.04 6.96 167.01

Korean Airlines 2.03 14.33 (2.41) (0.31) 0.83 (11.10)

China Airlines (0.47) 10.21 (2.47) (0.56) 34.62 (1,347.84)

Eva Airways 2.32 11.39 1.47 0.35 47.45 2,258.88

Thai Airways 3.99 14.00 (8.13) (1.79) 18.22 (80.62)

Asiana Airlines 3.08 7.86 (2.96) (0.41) 0.85 (6.88)

China Eastern Airlines 4.08 12.95 17.05 2.86 7.56 81.46

China Southern Airlines 4.09 12.95 10.43 2.49 4.45 79.00

Garuda Indonesia Persero 2.69 6.77 7.21 2.92 0.88 88.33

Malaysia Airlines (7.83) (3.18) (78.90) (9.70) 22.55 (37.74)

Trung bnh 3.76 13.17 3.41 1.22 8.75 68.61

Vietnam Airlines 1.81 6.20 2.24 0.34 1.97 78.52

Ngun: Bloomberg, VNA

8


Theo k hoch hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines s ci thin

ng k t 2016

Trong k hoch kinh doanh giai on 2014 2018, Vietnam Airlines t mc tiu tng trng li nhun rt

mnh 83,8%/nm n t 2 yu t doanh thu tng bnh qun 16,7%/nm v bin li nhun s ci thin t

10.93% nm 2014 ln mc 14,13% nm 2018. C s Vietnam Airlines a ra k hoch tng trng kh

quan ny ch yu da trn k hoch i mi i bay hin nay sang my bay thn rng th h mi nh

A350-900 v B787-9 nng cp cc cht lng dch v k vng tng s lng khch c thu nhp cao.

Ngoi ra, cc dng my bay mi s gip gim tiu hao nhin liu khong 25% v gim cc chi ph bo tr,

bo dng t c th ci thin mnh v bin li nhun. Vi tc tng trng nh k hoch n nm

2016 cc ch tiu nh gi ca Vietnam Airlines s v mc hp l, PE v PB ln lt l 12x v 1.43x

K hoch kinh doanh ca Vietnam Airlines

n v 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

K hoch kinh doanh

Doanh thu thun t ng 59,009 67,496 81,246 95,017 109,532

Li nhun gp t ng 6,449 8,194 11,549 14,090 15,479

Li nhun sau thu TNDN t ng 341 1,132 2,561 3,716 3,894

K hoch ngun vn

N ngn hn t ng 21,240 24,688 25,527 27,142 30,812

N di hn t ng 30,154 42,672 47,660 50,443 50,399

Vn ch s hu t ng 14,394 15,366 21,932 24,437 26,576

Tng ngun vn t ng 65,788 82,726 95,119 102,022 107,787

Hiu qu hot ng

T sut li nhun gp 10.93% 12.14% 14.21% 14.83% 14.13%

T sut li nhun sau thu 0.58% 1.68% 3.15% 3.91% 3.56%

T sut li nhun trn vn s hu 2.37% 7.37% 11.68% 15.21% 14.65%

Ch tiu nh gi

PE

92.22 27.78 12.28 8.46 8.08

PB

2.18 2.05 1.43 1.29 1.18

Ngun: VNA

9


u t mnh vo pht trin i bay v mng ng bay

cnh tranh v pht trin trong xu hng ton cu ha, vic pht trin mng bay l chin lc chung ca

tt c cc hng hng khng. i vi Vietnam Airlines, bn cnh th mnh l ng bay ni a, Cng ty s

pht trin thm nhiu ng bay mi v tng tn sut bay n cc th trng c lng ln khch du lch v

kinh doanh vi Vit Nam nh ng Bc , Chu u, M Ngoi ra cng ty cng tng tn sut bay v pht

trin thm cc im bay mi ti khu vc ng Nam .

K hoch pht trin mng ng bay 2015 2018

D kin thi gian khai thc

Cc ng bay mi

Tp. H Ch Minh - Los Angeles 2016

H Ni - c (Melbourne, Sydney)

Min trung (VN) - ng Bc

im n mi

Berlin (c) 2015

Denpasar (Indonesia) 2015

Manila (Phillipines) 2015

Brisbane (c) 2017

Adelaide (c) 2018

Dubai (Cc tiu vng quc Rp) 2017

Doha (Qatar) 2018

Bombay (n ) 2015

Dehli (n ) 2015

Tng tn sut bay

ng bay ng Bc 2 chuyn/ngy/ng bay

ng bay ng Nam 2 chuyn/ngy/ng bay

Ngun: VNA

Nhm phc v cho mc tiu pht trin mng bay, Vietnam Airlines s tip tc u t tng cng s lng

v tr ha i tu bay. So vi cc hng hng khng ni a, Vietnam Airlines l hng c i tu bay mnh

nht hin nay vi tng s lng 83 chic c tui trung bnh 5.34 nm, trong s hu v thu ti chnh l 46

chic v 37 chic l thu khai thc. Tuy nhin, so vi cc hng hng khng truyn thng trong khu vc, i

tu bay ca Vietnam Airlines mc trung bnh v s lng tu bay nhng c tui trung bnh kh tr.

10


So snh i tu bay ca Vietnam Airlines vi cc hng trong khu vc

S lng my bay Tui trung bnh

China Southern Airlines 479 6.30

China Eastern Airlines 357 6.30

Air China 317 6.10

Korean Airlines 152 9.30

Cathay Pacific Airways 142 8.10

Garuda Indonesia 136 5.40

Singapo Airlines 105 7.00

Malaysia Airlines 98 4.50

Thai Airways 97 11.00

Vietnam Airlines 83 5.34

China Airlines 81 10.20

Eva Airways 65 9.50

Phillippin Airlines 50 4.30

Lao Airlines 10 3.20

Ngun: BVSC tng hp

Trong thi gian ti Vietnam Airlines s y mnh u t hin i ha i bay. Giai on 2014 2018, Cng

ty s u t 63.297 t ng pht trin i bay (chim 90% tng u t trong giai on trn). u t i

bay tp trung vo 4 d n:

D n u t 10 tu bay A321 k hp ng nm 2007, Vietnam Airlines nhn 6 my bay, cn li 4

my bay s nhn vo nm 2014.

D n u t 16 tu bay A321 k hp ng nm 2009, Vietnam Airlines nhn 13 my bay, cn li 3

my bay s nhn vo nm 2015.

D n u t 10 my bay A350 k hp ng nm 2007.

D n u t 8 tu bay B787-9 k hp ng nm 2007.

Ngoi ra, cng ty tip tc thu khai thc pht trin i bay mc tiu n 2018, Vietnam Airlines s c i

bay 116 chic vi nhiu chng loi my bay mi c kh nng bay tm xa, tm trung v tm ngn ph hp

vi vic pht trin mng ng bay ca Vietnam Airlines. V vi i hnh my bay mi c kh nng tit kim

nhin liu c ngha rt quan trng ci thin hiu qu hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines.

K hoch pht trin i tu bay ca Vietnam Airlines

Tng s

2013

S lng tu bay tng hng nm Tng s

2018 Loi my bay s dng

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

280 - 300 gh 19 -1 5 5 4 6 38 A330, B777, A350, B787

150 - 180 gh 48 2 4 2 3 5 64 A321, A320

70 gh 16 -2 0 - 0 0 14 ATR 72

Tng s 83 -1 9 7 7 11 116

Ngun: VNA

11


p ng nhu cu vn cho u t c bn khong 69.994 t ng trong giai on 2014 2018 (trong

phn ln 63.297 t ng cho pht trin i bay), bn cnh ngun vn vay di hn, Vietnam Airlines s tip

tc tng vn ch s hu n nm 2018 t 26.576 t ng bao gm t cc ngun: (1) Tin thu c t pht

hnh ln u 25% vn iu l nm 2014; (2) Pht hnh thm c phiu cho c ng hin hu nm 2015

khong 4.000 t ng; (3) Pht hnh thm c phiu cho c ng hin hu nm 2016 khong 4.500 t ng,

gim t l s hu ca Nh nc xung cn 65%.

C hi t pht trin kinh t, hi nhp ca Vit Nam v tng

trng ca Ngnh du lch

S phc hi kinh t ko theo hot ng giao thng v nhu cu du lch tng trng l yu t thc y cho

ngnh hng khng ni chung v Vietnam Airlines ni ring. Mc d nn kinh t ton cu cn nhiu bt n tuy

nhin theo d bo gn y v tng trng ton cu ca IMF, nm 2014 vn duy tr tng ng nm 2013

mc 3,3% v t mc 3,8% cho nm 2015. Do , hot ng giao thng v du lch s tip tc tng

trng v xu hng tip tc dch chuyn v khu vc Chu . Nm 2013, lng khch du lch n khu vc

Chu tng 6,2% so vi 2012 trong khu vc ng Nam ghi nhn mc tng trng cao nht vi 10,5%

(theo bo co ca UNWTO t chc du lch th gii thuc Lin hip quc). T trng khch n khu vc

Chu , c th l ng Nam trong thi gian ti s tip tc tng v y l khu vc tp trung nhiu quc gia

c tc tng trng kinh t cao v c nhng im du lch hp dn. D kin n 2020, khu vc ng Nam

s n tip khong 125 triu lt khch tng gn gp i so vi mc 84,2 triu lt khch ca nm 2013.

i vi du lch Vit Nam, l quc gia nm trong khu vc ng Nam , ngnh du lch nc ta cng tng

trng kh tt trong thi gian qua. Theo nh gi ca BMI, lng khch du lch n Vit Nam (inbound) v

khch i du lch nc ngoi (outbound) tng trng bnh qun ln lt 5,3% v 11,4% trong giai on 2014

2018. Vi mc tim nng ca ngnh du lch v nhu cu giao thng ln s to ra c hi khng nh cho

ngnh hng khng pht trin.

Bn cnh ngun khch du lch v giao thng kinh t, Vit Nam vi i hnh tu bay so vi dn s ang cn

thp, t l s dng dch v hng khng ca ngi dn vn cn kh thp so vi mt bng khu vc v thu

nhp bnh qun u ngi tng s l nhng yu t thc y s pht trin ca ngnh hng khng. Do ,

Vietnam Airlines vi vai tr l mt doanh nghip chi phi th trng hng khng ni a v c mng ng

bay trong khu vc mnh s c tim nng tng trng cao.

Cc ri ro cn lu

i vi hot ng kinh doanh ca Vit Nam Airlines bn cnh nhng ri ro khch quan nh h tng cng

hng khng cn yu gy hn ch cho vic pht trin i bay v mng ng bay; hay cc ri ro c th

ngnh nh bin ng gi nguyn liu v bin ng t gi, Vietnam Airlines cn phi i mt vi nhng ri ro

ng ch nh:

Cnh tranh ngy cng tng

Xu hng hi nhp v chnh sch m ca nn kinh t ang to iu kin cho nhiu hng hng khng t

nhn v lin doanh hnh thnh v pht trin th trng Vit Nam. Bn cnh , s pht trin nhanh ca m

hnh hng khng gi r cng ang e da th phn ca cc hng hng khng truyn thng.

12


S hp dn ca th trng hng khng Chu v chnh sch m ca bu tri ti Asean s ko thm nhiu

hng hng khng trong khu vc Chu v cc khu vc khc nh Trung ng tham gia khai thc trn th

trng Vit Nam dn n cnh tranh s ngy cng mnh.

Tc tng vn nhanh v mnh p ng nhu cu pht trin i bay ca Vietnam Airlines ang t ra mt

thch thc khng nh cho qu trnh ci thin hot ng kinh doanh ca Cng ty sau khi c phn ha. Trong

nhng nm va qua, mc d doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines tng trng kh tt bnh qun 14% (ngoi tr

nm 2013 ch tng 6%) nhng li nhun li suy gim v phn ln n t cc cng ty con, cn li nhun cho

c ng cng ty m kh khim tn. Sau c phn ha vic ci thin hot ng kinh doanh trong bi cnh cnh

tranh ngy cng gay gt cng lc vi vic tng vn s to ra p lc ln cho Vietnam Airlines.

Nhn nh ca BVSC

Nm 2014, Vietnam Airlines (cng ty m) t k hoch doanh thu l 55.835 t ng v li nhun sau

thu khong 335 t ng, ln lt tng 6,4% v 127% so vi 2013. Tuy nhin, nhn vo kt qu kinh

doanh 6 thng/2014, li nhun sau thu cng ty m ch t khong 108 t ng, mc tiu li nhun 335

t ng s kh t c cho d 6 thng cui nm Vietnam Airlines c thun li khi gi nhin liu gim.

Nhn chung, hiu qu hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines trong cc nm qua u mc kh thp do tc

ng ca nguyn nhn ln nht l chi ph nguyn liu. Trong ngn hn Cng ty ang c h tr bi gi

du gim mnh v c th duy tr mc thp cho nm 2015. Theo Ban lnh o Cng ty nh gi,

nu gi nhin liu cho my bay duy tr mc 105 usd/thng th chi ph nhin liu s gim cn 31% (so vi

mc 38% hin nay), iu ny s tc ng rt tch cc n li nhun cho nm 2015. Ngoi ra, tnh bin

ng ca gi nhin lin ln hot ng kinh doanh ca Vietnam Airlines trong thi gian ti cng ang

c hn ch phn no nh cc gii php nh pht trin, thay th i tu bay gim hao ph nhin

liu v bo him gi nguyn liu. Chng ti kh lc quan v kh nng ci thin hiu qu hot ng ca

Vietnam AIirlines sau c phn ha cng vi mc tng doanh thu 16,7%/nm on 2014 2018, li

nhun s c mc tng mnh trong tng lai.

Ti mc gi khi im 22.300 ng/CP, Vietnam Airlines ang c P/B v P/E ln lt l 1,97x v 78,52x.

So vi bnh qun khu vc PE ca Vietnam Airlines kh cao tuy nhin P/B thp so vi bnh qun PB ca

khu vc l 8,75x. Vi nhng li th hin c ca Vietnam Airlines nh chng ti nh gi trn, mc PE

v PB hin ti s c ci thin nhiu trong tng lai, do chng ti nh gi c phiu ca Vietnam

Airlines s mt khon u t ph hp cho mc tiu u t di hn khong 3 5 nm. Mt im cn lu

i vi c phiu ca Cng ty l t l s hu ca Nh nc sau c phn ha vn cn kh cao (n nm

2018 nh nc vn nm gi 65%) v s lng c phiu t do chuyn nhng cng mc thp s nh

hng ti tnh thanh khon ca c phiu.

KHUYN CO S DNG

Tt c nhng thng tin nu trong bo co ny c xem xt cn trng v c cho l ng tin cy nht, tuy nhin

Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bo Vit (BVSC) khng m bo tuyt i tnh chnh xc v y ca nhng thng tin

nu trn. Cc quan im, nhn nh, nh gi trong bo co ny l quan im c nhn ca cc chuyn vin phn tch ti

thi im vit bo co v c th thay i bt c lc no. Do , chng ti khng c trch nhim phi thng bo cho nh

u t.

Bo co ch nhm mc tiu cung cp thng tin m khng hm cho bn, li ko, khuyn ngui c mua, bn hay nm

gi chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng bo co phn tch ny nh mt ngun thng tin tham kho.

BVSC c th c nhng hot ng hp tc kinh doanh, tham gia u t hoc thc hin cc nghip v ngn hng u t

vi i tng c cp n trong bo co ny. Ngi c cn lu rng BVSC c th c nhng xung t li ch i

vi cc nh u t khi thc hin bo co phn tch ny.

B PHN PHN TCH V T VN U T

Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bo Vit

Tr s chnh: 8 L Thi T, qun Hon Kim, H Ni Chi nhnh: Tng 8, 233 ng Khi, Qun 1, Tp. HCM

Tel: (84 4) 3 928 8080 Fax: (8 44) 3 928 9888 Tel: (84 8) 3 914 6888 Fax: (84 8) 3 914 7999

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