c5- phan tich phuong an theo bc - phan 1.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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Chng 5: Phn tch
phng n theo t s li
ch chi ph & cc phng
php khc (phn 1)
Nguyn Hi Ngn H
B mn Ti Chnh Khoa Qun l Cng nghip i hc Bch Khoa - TPHCM
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 2
Ni dung
1. T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
3. So snh 3 PP phn tch PA
4. Phn tch im ha vn (phn 2)
5. Thi gian b vn (phn 2)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 3
1. T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
- N: L t s gi tr
tng ng ca li
ch (B - benefits) trn
gi tr tng ca chi
ph (C -costs) ca d
n. Gi tr tng
ng c th l PW,
AW, FW.
-TC: DA c B/C 1
l ng gi
PW(B) > PW(C)
PW(rng) = PW(B) PW(C)> 0
PW(B) / PW(C) > 1
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 4
1. T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
Cc cng thc tnh B/C:
- B/C thng:
PW(B)B /C
PW(CR+O+M)
BB/C
CR O M
PW[B-(O+M)]B/C
PW(CR)
B (O M)B/C
CR
- B/C sa i:
B - benefits: Thu nhp (Li ch) hng nm
O operation costs: Chi ph vn hnh hng nm
M maintenance costs: Chi ph bo tr hng nm
CR capital recovery costs : Chi ph CR ca d n
AW PW
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 5
1. T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
- Khc bit gia B/C thng v B/C sa i:
+ Cng thc tnh B/C thng: phn chi ph hng
nm (O & M) c b sung vo phn chi ph mu
s
+ Cng thc tnh B/C sa i: phn chi ph hng
nm (O & M) trch ra trc tip t li ch hng nm
t s.
- Cch tnh khc nhau nn 2 t s B/C thng v sa
i ca cng 1 d n l khc nhau.
-Tuy vy, chng u dn n nhng kt lun ph
hp nhau.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d an 6
1. T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
Li ch (Benefits): mi li (advantages), biu th
bng tin, i vi ngi ch d n hay l ngi
hng li t d n. Li ch trong cng thc B/C l
li ch rng (li ch tr i tn tht)
Chi ph (Costs): l nhng gi tr c tnh v gi xy Dng (vn hnh, bo qun) tr i cc gi tr cn li.
Tn tht (Disbenefits): l nhng bt li (disadvantages)
do d n gy ra, nhng tn tht ny khng phi lc
no cng c th quy ra thnh tin.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 7
1. T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
Chi ph u t ban u (triu ng) 10
Chi ph vn hnh, bo qun hng nm (O + M) 2,2
Thu nhp hng nm (B) 5
Gi tr cn li 2
Tui th (nm) 5
MARR (%) 8%
Tnh t s B/C thng v sa i
V d:
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 8
1. T s li ch chi ph (B/C)
Chi ph u t ban u (triu ng) 10
Chi ph vn hnh, bo qun (O + M) 2,2
Thu nhp hng nm (B) 5
Gi tr cn li 2
Tui th (nm) 5
MARR (%) 8%
CR = 10(A/P,8%,5) - 2(A/F,8%,5) = 2,163 triu ng
BB/C
CR O M= 1,146 (B/C thng)
B (O M)B/C
CR= 1,294 (B/C sa i)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 9
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
Nguyn tc phn tch theo gia s (tng t IRR):
Phi m bo PA c vn u t ban u nh hn l ng gi. Khi B0 v C 0 th PA s ng gi nu B/C 1
Tiu chun: chn PA c vn u t ban u ln hn nu gia s vn u t l ng gi, ngha l t s B/C( ) 1
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 10
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
V d 1: So snh d n A v B (thu nhp v chi ph khc nhau)
S liu ban u A B
u t ban u (triu ) 10 15
Chi ph hot ng hng nm 2,2 4,3
Thu nhp hng nm 5 7
Gi tr cn li 2 0
Tui th(nm) 5 10
MARR(%) 8%
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 11
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
S liu ban u A B
Thu nhp hng nm (B) 5 7
u t ban u 10 15
Chi ph hot ng (O) 2,2 4,3
Gi tr cn li 2,0 0
Tui th (nm) 5 10
Quyt nh
V d 1: So snh d n A v B (thu nhp v chi ph khc nhau)
PA () [B A]
2
2,1
0,037
-2,703
Khng ng gi
Chn A (v -2,7 < 1)
2,163 2,2
1,294
ng gi
Chi ph CR
B/C= [B-(O+M)] /CR
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 12
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
Lu TH so snh 2 PA c li ch ging nhau:
Nu khng bit li ch c th ca tng PA th ta
khng th tnh B/C cho tng PA, m ch c th
tnh B/C gia s
PA c vn u t ban u nh nht c gi
thuyt l ng gi.
T s B/C gia s 1 th chn PA c vn u t
ban u ln hn
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 13
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
i lng A B
Thu nhp hng nm (triu) Ging B Ging A
u t ban u 3 4
Chi ph hng nm (O) 2 1,6
Gi tr cn li 0,5 0
Tui th (nm) 6 9
MARR 15%
Chi Ph CR 0,735 0,84
B/C= [B-(O+M)] /CR
Quyt nh
V d 2: So snh d n A v B (thu nhp ging nhau)
PA ()
0
-0,4
0,105
Khng tnh Khng tnh 3,81
Chn B (v 3,8 > 1)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 14
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
Lu trng hp gi tr C m:
Trong TH gia s mu ca t s B/C l m, PA c vn u t ban u ln hn c chn nu t s B/C( ) 1 (ngha l d n c vn u t ban u ln hn s tit kim c chi ph nhiu hn)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 15
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
Gia s li ch
B() Gia s chi ph
C() T s B/C PA ng gi khng?
TH gia s chi ph >0, PA ng gi nu B/C 1
+2 (thu thm) +1(tng thm) +2 G
0 (khng i) +1(tng thm) 0 Ko G
TH gia s chi ph
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 16
2. So snh cc PA theo t s B/C
Chi ph v thu
nhp (triu )
Cc phng n
A B C D E F
u t ban u
Thu nhp rng
Gi tr cn li
MARR
1.000
150
1.000
18%
1.500
375
1.500
18%
2.500
500
2.500
18%
4.000
925
4.000
18%
5.000
1125
5.000
18%
7.000
1.425
7.000
18%
U T BAN U = GI TR CN LI CR = U T BAN U * MARR
Gia s A B B C B D D E E F
u t ban u
Thu nhp rng
CR
B/C
ng gi
1.000
150
180
0,83
Khng
1.500
375
270
1,39
C
1.000
125
180
0,69
Khng
2.500
550
450
1,22
C
1.000
200
180
1,11
C
2.000
300
360
0,83
Khng
Kt Lun Chn phng n E
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 17
3. So snh 3 PP phn tch phng n
PP PW, AW, FW IRR B/C
ng
gi
0 MARR
1
ng
gi
nht
Max PP so snh
theo gia s
PP so snh theo
gia s
Bn
cht
L gi tr li
nhun rng quy
v 1 thi im
no , ph
thuc vo i%
L sut thu li
(i*) lm cho
gi tr hin ti
PW bng 0
L t s gia thu
nhp v chi ph
cng quy v 1
thi im no
theo i%
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 18
Lm bi tp 5.1 v 5.4