c7- quy hoach nguon von (p2).pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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Chng 7: Quy hoch ngun vn v la chn tp d n u t (phn 2)
Nguyn Hi Ngn H
B mn Ti Chnh Khoa Qun l Cng nghip i hc Bch Khoa - TPHCM
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 2
Ni dung
1. Ngun vn
2. Chi ph s dng vn
3. Sut sinh li ti thiu chp nhn c
4. La chn tp d n u t
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 3
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt
Cost of Capital (WACC) Chi ph s dng vn: l
bnh qun chi ph s dng
vn CSH v vn vay n
Cost of Equity (ie) Chi ph s dng vn ch s
hu: l chi ph c hi ca
vic s dng vn CSH.
Cost of Debt (id) Chi ph s dng n : l chi ph
phi tr cho ch n.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 4
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn - Cost of Capital
WACC (weighted average cost of capital): chi ph s dng vn bnh qun
Cd, Ce : tng n , tng vn ch s hu
V: tng ngun vn ( = Cd + Ce )
id: chi ph sd n sau thu
ie :chi ph sd vn ch s hu
ki C
V
i C
V
d d e e WACC =
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 5
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn - Cost of Capital
Chng ta quan tm n chi ph s dng vn
trc thu hay sau thu ?
Khi thm nh d n, ta quan tm n dng tin
sau thu (CFAT) => ta ch quan tm n chi ph
s dng vn sau thu.
Ch c chi ph s dng n l cn iu chnh sang chi ph sau thu, bi v li vay c xem
nh mt khon chi ph c khu tr thu.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 6
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Cs: n vay t t chc ti chnh Cb: n vay t tri phiu Cd: tng s n ( = Cb + Cs) ks: li sut trc thu ca n vay t t chc ti
chnh (ls thc)
kb: li sut trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc) t: thu sut
i d=
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 7
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Tnh ks: ls trc thu ca n vay t TCTC (ls thc)
ks = (1 + r/m1)m2 - 1
VD: Cty Vit Tin vay n t ngn hng 1 t ng, li
sut 20%/nm, ghp li theo qu. Nu thu sut TNDN
l 25% th li sut trc thu & sau thu m DN thc
tr cho khon n ny l bao nhiu?
Gii:
ks trc thu = [( 1 + 20%/4)4 1] = 21%
ks sau thu = 21% x (1- 25%) = 16%
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 8
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
VD: Cty Vit Tin pht hnh 1000 tri phiu,
mi tri phiu gi 1 tr. Li tc hng nm l
80.000 (8%/nm), thi k o hn l 10 nm.
Gi s gi bn tri phiu Po ti thi im pht
hnh l 1,2 tr.
a/ Tm li sut thc ca tri phiu trc thu.
b/Tm li sut thc ca tri phiu sau thu, nu
thu TNDN l 25%
Tnh kb : ls trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 9
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Gii:
a/ 1,2 = 0,08 x (P/A, kb, 10) + 1 x (P/F, kb, 10)
Dng pp ni suy ra kb = 5%
b/ kb sau thu = kb x ( 1- 25%) = 4%
Tnh kb : ls trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n - 10
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Tnh kb : ls trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)
Po (1-fc) = INT * (P/A, kb, n) + M * (P/F, kb, n)
Po : Gi bn tri phiu fc: chi ph pht hnh tri phiu (%) INT: li tc = li sut x mnh gi M : mnh gi n : k hn ca tri phiu
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 11
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
1. Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
- Cost of Common Stock(kc)
2. Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i
- Cost of Preferred Stock (kp)
3. Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li
- Cost of Retained Earnings (kr)
=> Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of equity: bnh qun ca 3 chi ph kr kc, v kp
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 12
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
nh gi c phiu thng
2. Tng trng (tc g)
1. Khng tng trng
1 1
0 2
10
DIV DIVP ...
1 r 1 r
DIVP
r
1 2 3DIV DIV DIV ... 2
1 1 1DIV , DIV (1 g), DIV (1 g) , ...
1 1
0 2
10
DIV DIV (1 g)P ...
1 r 1 r
DIVP
r g
r l sut sinh li yu cu ca c ng. i vi DN, sut
sinh li c ng yu cu chnh l chi ph m DN phi
tr khi sd vn ca c ng => r = kc
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 13
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn CP thng - Cost of common stock
(Gi nh c tc tng trng u hng nm vi tc g
v nh u t khng u c)
DIV1: c tc c phn thng nm th 1
Po: gi bn c phiu thng nm 0
f c : chi ph pht hnh c phiu thng (%)
g: tc pht trin ( = b*R)
+ b =t l ln gi li ti u t (=(EPSo DIVo)/ EPSo)
+ R=sut sinh li ti u t
kc =
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 14
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
-Cost of common stock
- Trong TH c tc khng u, th ta c
cng thc tng qut sau:
Po = c
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 15
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng - Cost of common stock
VD: Cng ty IBM ang c 1 triu c phiu ang lu
hnh. Cng ty va bo co li nhun sau thu cn li
cho c ng nm nay l $2 triu, v d kin gi li 40%
ln ti u t vo nm sau. Sut sinh li ti u t ca
cng ty trc y l 16% v d kin s tng trong tng
lai. IBM pht hnh c phiu thng mi v bn vi gi
$10. Tnh chi ph s dng vn c phn ca cng ty?
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 16
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng - Cost of common stock
Gii:
Tc pht trin g = 0.4 x 0.16 = 6.4%
Thu nhp vo nm sau = 2.000.000 x (1+6.4%) = 2.128.000
C tc vo nm sau = 2.128.000 x ( 1 0.4) = 1.276.800
C tc trn mt c phiu vo nm sau = 1.276.800 /
1.000.000 = 1.28
Chi ph s dng vn c phn = 1.28/10 + 6.4% = 19.2%
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 17
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng (phn ny khng thi)
M hnh tng trng ca Gordon Shapiro (The Gordon Shapiro Growth Model)
M hnh tng trng ca Solomon (The Solomon Grown Model)
0
00
0
0
BV
DVEPS
P
DVRe
0
00
0
0
P
DVEPS
P
DVRe
kc
kc
BVo l gi bt tan ca
mt c phn ti nm 0
Po l gi th trng ca
mt c phn ti nm 0
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 18
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
VD: Li nhun trn mt cp sau thu (EPS) ca cty Vit
Tin l 3400/cp thng, gi bn cp l 36.000/cp. Li
c phn (c tc) c chia hin nay l 1670/cp. T l li
nhun gi li ti u t (b) d kin s khng thay i
trong tng lai. Gi BVO hin nay l 19.500 /cp.
=> Tnh chi ph s dng vn c phn thng (sau thu)
ca cty theo 2 m hnh Gordon- Shapiro v Solomon.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 19
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
Li gii
Theo m hnh Gordon Shapiro:
Theo m hnh Solomon:
%5,131351,0500.19
670.1400.3
000.36
670.1
0
00
0
0 hayBV
DVEPS
P
DVRe
%45,90945,0000.36
670.1400.3
000.36
670.1
0
00
0
0 hayP
DVEPS
P
DVRe
kc
kc
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 20
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i
- Cost of preferred stock
DIV*: c tc c phn u i
Po: gi bn c phiu u i
f c: chi ph pht hnh c phiu u i (%)
kp=
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 21
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i
- Cost of preferred stock
VD: Cty IBM pht hnh c phiu u i vi gi
$100/cp v tr c tc u hng nm l $10.5. Nu chi
ph pht hnh l $4/cp, chi ph s dng vn c phn u
i l bao nhiu?
Gii: Kp = 10.5 / (100 4) = 10.94%
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 22
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li
- Cost of retained earning
Ti sao c chi ph s dng li nhun gi li?
Li nhun c th c gi li ti u t hoc chia c tc cho c ng.
Nu Cty tr c tc thp th nh u t c th mua c phiu ca cng ty khc hng c tc cao hn
=> Nu gi li ln ti u t, cty phi chu chi ph c
hi bng thu nhp m nh u t mong i t c
khi u t vo mt CP khc c cng ri ro.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 23
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li
- Cost of retained earning
Trong , DIV1: c tc CP thng, Po: gi bn CP
thng, g: tc tng trng
Chi ph ln gi li = chi ph sd vn c phn thng nu
chi ph pht hnh bng 0. Nu ht ngun li nhun gi
li th cty mi pht hnh c phiu mi (trnh ke cao)
kr=
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 24
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Cost of Common Stock
Cost of Preferred Stock
Cost of Equity
i c c k c c k
c c k
e r e r c e e
p e p
( / ) ( / )
( / )
Cost of Retained Earnings
Cr = vn t ngun li nhun gi li,
Cc = vn t pht hnh CP thng mi
Cp = vn t pht hnh CP u i
Ce = vn CSH ( = Cr + Cc + Cp)
kc =
kr=
kp=
c
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 25
2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn v cu trc vn
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 26
3. Sut sinh li ti thiu chp nhn c
MARR l sut chit khu i tnh PW ca d n.
MARR l tiu chun so snh vi IRR ca d n
Lm sao tnh c MARR ???
=> Cch n gin nht l MARR = WACC. Tuy nhin,
mi d n c th c cch c lng MARR ring do
cc yu t c th sau:
- ri ro ca d n
- Vng d n
- C cu thu
- Cc phng php huy ng vn
- Gi tr MARR ca cc cng ty khc
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 27
4. La chn tp d n u t
Cc d n c lp: C th chn nhiu hn 1 DA trong tp
cc DA c lp, tu theo ngun ngn sch ca DN.
Khi c m c hi u t s c 2m - 1 tp d n.
Cc bc chn la tp d n:
1. Xc nh s tp d n
2. Sp xp cc tp d n tng dn theo vn u t.
3. Xc nh dng tin t cho tng tp d n
4. Tnh PW cho tng tp d n
5. Chn tp d n da vo ngun ngn sch B xc nh.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 28
4. La chn tp d n u t
PA P Li tc rng N (nm)
A -12.000 +4.281 5
B -10.000 +4.184 5
C -17.000 +5.802 10
Xt cc DA c lp A,B,C sau v la chn tp d n
u t c li nht nu MARR = 15%. Ngun ngn sch
ca cng ty cho vic u t d n l B = 27.000 tr.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 29
4. La chn tp d n u t
TT Tp DA P PW Nhn xt
1 B -10.000 4.025
2 A -12.000 2.350
3 C -17.000 12.120
4 AB -22.000 6.375
5 BC -27.000 16.145 Chn tp BC v ngn
sch l 27.000
6 AC -29.000 14.470 Loi ngay v vt NS
7 ABC -39.000 18.495 Loi ngay v vt NS
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 30
BI TP
Lm bi
7.3, 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.11, 7.13,
7.14, 7.17, 7.18, 7.20, 7.21