第8回RIETIハイライトセミナー

消費税引き上げ後の物価・景気 プレゼンテーション資料

渡辺 努 東京大学大学院経済学研究科教授

http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html

2014年7月2日

独立行政法人 経済産業研究所（RIETI）

渡辺 努

「東大日次物価指数」プロジェクト http://www.cmdlab.co.jp/price_u-tokyo/

https://sites.google.com/site/twatanabelab/

2014年7月2日

2

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2519

6001

1962

0119

6401

1966

0119

6801

1970

0119

7201

1974

0119

7601

1978

0119

8001

1982

0119

8401

1986

0119

8801

1990

0119

9201

1994

0119

9601

1998

0120

0001

2002

0120

0401

2006

0120

0801

2010

0120

1201

2014

01

CPI InflationOvernight Call Rate

yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト2

yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト

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3

2013 Q3

Q4

2014 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2015 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Real GDP Y/Y percent

2.4

2.4

2.8

0.7

1.1

1.4

0.3

1.9

1.9

0.9

CPI Y/Y percent

0.9

1.4

1.5

3.3

(1.5)

3.0

(1.2)

2.8

(1.0)

2.9

(1.1)

1.0

1.0

2.3

(1.1)

Source：Consensus Economics Inc.

Note: Numbers in parentheses indicate the inflation rate without consumption tax increases planned in April 2014 and in Oct 2015.

2013

2014

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6

CPI I

nfla

tion

Unemployment rate

1971-1989

1990-1999

2000-2013

2013-2014

Low responsiveness of inflation to unemployment

4

5 http://www.cmdlab.co.jp/price_u-tokyo/dailys_e

The current and historical data are downloadable. Free!

• Prices are collected every day from 300 supermarkets sampled from all over Japan.

• The number of products is about 300K.

• Updated every day with a two day lag.

• Covers 17 percent of the official CPI.

• Historical daily data is available over the last 25 years.

6

The UTokyo Daily Price Index is a daily version of the Törnqvist index, which is known as one of the superlative price indexes. CPI Manual released by ILO: “Many different kinds of mathematical formulae have been

proposed over the past two centuries. While there may be no single formula that would be preferred in all circumstances, most economists and compilers of CPIs seem to be agreed that, in principle, the index formula should belong to a small class of indices called superlative indices.” (Consumer price index manual: Theory and practice, 2004, p.2)

Price relatives: The daily inflation rate is calculated as the weighted geometric mean of price relatives across products, which are defined as the price ratios between today (t) and some day in the past (t-dt). For example, dt=365.

Weights: The weight for a product is given by the average of the sales shares of the product today and the sales share of the same product on the same day of the previous year.

7

Sales price and quantity sold for a particular product at a particular retailer

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2011

/2/1

2011

/2/8

2011

/2/1

5

2011

/2/2

2

2011

/3/1

2011

/3/8

2011

/3/1

5

2011

/3/2

2

2011

/3/2

9

2011

/4/5

2011

/4/1

2

2011

/4/1

9

2011

/4/2

6

1 week moving average of daily sales growth [Left]1 week moving average of daily inflation [Right]

Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices

8

3/11/2011 East Japan Earthquake

Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

3/11/2011 East Japan Earthquake

12/26/2012 Abenomics started

9

The rate of inflation has increased from -1.5 percent to zero percent since the start of Abenomics

10

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%20

13/1

/820

13/1

/22

2013

/2/5

2013

/2/1

920

13/3

/520

13/3

/19

2013

/4/2

2013

/4/1

620

13/4

/30

2013

/5/1

420

13/5

/28

2013

/6/1

120

13/6

/25

2013

/7/9

2013

/7/2

320

13/8

/620

13/8

/20

2013

/9/3

2013

/9/1

720

13/1

0/1

2013

/10/

1520

13/1

0/29

2013

/11/

1220

13/1

1/26

2013

/12/

1020

13/1

2/24

2014

/1/7

2014

/1/2

120

14/2

/420

14/2

/18

2014

/3/4

2014

/3/1

820

14/4

/120

14/4

/15

2014

/4/2

920

14/5

/13

2014

/5/2

720

14/6

/10

Daily sales growth [Left]Daily inflation [Right]

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

3/11/2011 East Japan Earthquake

12/26/2012 Abenomics started

11

QQE had an immediate impact on the exchange rate but not on the daily inflation

12

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

2013

/2/1

2013

/2/3

2013

/2/5

2013

/2/7

2013

/2/9

2013

/2/1

120

13/2

/13

2013

/2/1

520

13/2

/17

2013

/2/1

920

13/2

/21

2013

/2/2

320

13/2

/25

2013

/2/2

720

13/3

/120

13/3

/320

13/3

/520

13/3

/720

13/3

/920

13/3

/11

2013

/3/1

320

13/3

/15

2013

/3/1

720

13/3

/19

2013

/3/2

120

13/3

/23

2013

/3/2

520

13/3

/27

2013

/3/2

920

13/3

/31

2013

/4/2

2013

/4/4

2013

/4/6

2013

/4/8

2013

/4/1

020

13/4

/12

2013

/4/1

420

13/4

/16

2013

/4/1

820

13/4

/20

2013

/4/2

220

13/4

/24

2013

/4/2

620

13/4

/28

2013

/4/3

020

13/5

/220

13/5

/420

13/5

/620

13/5

/820

13/5

/10

2013

/5/1

220

13/5

/14

2013

/5/1

620

13/5

/18

2013

/5/2

020

13/5

/22

2013

/5/2

420

13/5

/26

2013

/5/2

820

13/5

/30

Daily inflation [Left scale]Yen/Dollar rate [Right scale]

Quantitative and Qualitative Easing started on April 4, 2013

13

Inflation and sales at the time of consumption tax increase

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1-M

ar3-

Mar

5-M

ar7-

Mar

9-M

ar11

-Mar

13-M

ar15

-Mar

17-M

ar19

-Mar

21-M

ar23

-Mar

25-M

ar27

-Mar

29-M

ar31

-Mar

2-Ap

r4-

Apr

6-Ap

r8-

Apr

10-A

pr12

-Apr

14-A

pr16

-Apr

18-A

pr20

-Apr

22-A

pr24

-Apr

26-A

pr28

-Apr

30-A

pr2-

May

4-M

ay6-

May

8-M

ay10

-May

12-M

ay14

-May

16-M

ay18

-May

20-M

ay22

-May

24-M

ay26

-May

28-M

ay30

-May

Daily sales growth 1997: 3% => 5%2014: 5% => 8%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

1-M

ar3-

Mar

5-M

ar7-

Mar

9-M

ar11

-Mar

13-M

ar15

-Mar

17-M

ar19

-Mar

21-M

ar23

-Mar

25-M

ar27

-Mar

29-M

ar31

-Mar

2-Ap

r4-

Apr

6-Ap

r8-

Apr

10-A

pr12

-Apr

14-A

pr16

-Apr

18-A

pr20

-Apr

22-A

pr24

-Apr

26-A

pr28

-Apr

30-A

pr2-

May

4-M

ay6-

May

8-M

ay10

-May

12-M

ay14

-May

16-M

ay18

-May

20-M

ay22

-May

24-M

ay26

-May

28-M

ay30

-May

Daily inflation1997: 3% => 5%2014: 5% => 8%

Excluding consumption tax

yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト13

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14

50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

全年齢

～29才

30才～39才

40才～44才

45才～49才

50才～54才

55才～59才

60才～

物価上昇を予想する人の割合

年齢別

15

65% 70% 75% 80% 85%

朝日

読売

毎日

日経

産経

地方新聞

スポーツ新聞

日刊ゲンダイ，夕刊フジ

英字新聞

その他

読んでない

物価上昇を予想する人の割合購読紙別

東大物価指数からみた物価動向スライド番号 2Quarterly Consensus Forecast�June 9, 2014Low responsiveness of inflation to unemploymentスライド番号 5How is the UTokyo Daily Price Index calculated? スライド番号 7�Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices�Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices�The rate of inflation has increased from -1.5 percent to zero percent since the start of Abenomics スライド番号 11�QQE had an immediate impact on the exchange rate but not on the daily inflationスライド番号 13スライド番号 14スライド番号 15