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CAC NEN KINH TE MOI NOI GIAI CLTU KINH TE THE GIOI TRl/aC KHUNG HOANG TAI CHINH TOAN CAU

Trdn Thi Lan Huang''

A-A I

Khac vdi nhiing cuge khiing hoang tai chinh da timg xay ra nhu khung hoang ng d My

Latinh thap ky 1980, khung hoang tien te d Nga va khung hoang tai chinh chau A cudi nhung nam 1990, trong eugc khung hoang tai ehinh the gidi lan nay nam 2008 cac nen kinh te mdi ndi it bi tac ddng va ed sy can bang tdt hon.Trong khi cac qudc gia hang dau the gidi nhu My, EU dang phai ddi mat vdi nhiing khd khan tir khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau, thi cac nen kinh te mdi ndi ed kha nang phuc hdi nhanh hon. Vdi lugng tien mat dy trii khdng Id va it chiu tac ddng tir thi trudng cam ed tai san My, cac nen kinh te mdi ndi nhu Trung Qudc, An Do, Nga... da ban che dugc nhirng tac ddng tieu cyc tir khimg hoang, ddng thdi trd thanh nhiing ngudi "cho vay" ddi vdi nhieu nude dang bi khung hoang. Cac nude nay dang dan dan thay the cae nude phat trien trong

Thae sT, 'Vien Nghien cuu Chau Phi va Trung Dong

viec giai quyet cac van de ciia nen kinh te the gidi. Thii tudng Anh Gordon Brown cho rang "mdt he thdng mdi eua hgp tac kinh te qudc te da bat dau, khdng chi gdm cac nude phat trien ma cd ca eac thi trudng mdi noi phat trien nhanh nhu Trung Qudc, An Dp, Brazin, de trd thanh td chirc kinh te chinh quan ly kinh te toan the gidi"'.

1. SuTc manh cua cac nen kinh te m6i noi

Trong 10 nam trd lai day, cac nen kinh te mdi ndi ngay cang trd nen ed sire manh canh tranh hon so vdi cae nude cdng nghiep phat trien tren the gidi. Trong bang xep hang nam 2006 eua Vien Nghien ciru kinh ik IMD Thuy ST, cae nen kinh te mdi ndi, dac biet la cac nen kinh te chau A, dang nhanh chong thu hep khoang each ve sire canh tranh so vdi My va dan dan vugt qua eac nude cdng nghiep cd trinh do phat trien cao d chau Au.

Dac biet nhat la vai trd eiia mot so nude dang phat trien cd dan so ldn, dien tich rdng,

Tap chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUING DOXG s6 11 (51) thang 11/2009

Cac nen kinh te mdi noi... Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng

tiem lye quan sy manh nhu Trung Qudc, An Do, Brazil, Nga. Bdn nude ldn nay thude nhdm BRIC, chiSm tdi 26% dien tich, 43,4% dan sd , 22,4% GDP toan cau vao nam 2008, 33% dy trir ngoai te va 13,7% khdi lugng giao dich thuong mai the gidi (xem bang 1). Tdng gia tri trao ddi thuong mai toan cau cua BRIC nam 2008 la 60.700 ty USD.

tang trudng GDP la 3,8%, Nga va An Do la 7% va Trung Qudc la 9.75%. Xet ve tam quan trgng eiia thi trudng ndi dja. chiem 43,4% dan sd toan cau ciing nhu sy nang ddng trong viec lya chgn chien luge phat trien kinh te. bdn nen kinh te tren ddng vai trd quan trgng trong viec dua kinh te the gidi thoat ra khdi khimg hoang.

Trong giai doan 1999-2008, Brazil ed ty le Bang 1: Sue manh cua nhom BRIC trong nen kinh te the gidi (% trong tong so

, 1 nhdm nude dang phat trien va the gidi)

Nude

Nga Trung Qudc An Do Brazil BRIC Cac nen kinh moi no! va DPT

Nguon: World ECL

te

mon

GDP

dang phat trien

7,4 25,5 10,7

6,4 53,0

100,0

lie Outlook, h

the gidi

3,3 11,4 4,8

2,9 22,4 44,7

\IF 4/2009,

Kim ngach xuat khau hang hoa va dich vu dang phat

trien 7,6

24,1 3,9

3,3 38,9

100,0

trang 183.

the gidi

2,7 8,4 1,4

1,2 13,7 34,9

Dan

dang phat trien

2,6: 23,8 ' 21,4

3.4 51,2

100,0

so

the gidi

2,2 20,2 18,1

2.9 43,4 84,7

Ngoai 4 nude ke tren, eac nen kinh te mdi ndi khac cQng ed kha nang giai ciru nen kinh te the gidi nhd thi trudng tieu thy rdng ldn va nhirng tiem nang vdn cd. Dan sd ddng va dung lugng thi trudng Idn ehinh la diem hap dan nhat cua cac nen kinh te mdi ndi. Den nam 2008, neu dan sd cac nude phat trien chi cd khoang 960 trieu ngudi thi dan sd cac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi la khoang 5,721 ty ngudi. Ngay ca nhirng ngudi ed thu nhap thap van cd kha nang mua hang hoa cd gia tri cao, chang ban nhu sy gia tang sd lugng thue bao dien thoai di ddng tir 36 trieu nam 2003 len 224 trieu nam 2008 eiia ngudi dan chau Phi can Sahara - khu vyc dugc danh gia la ngheg khd nhat the gidi. Thu

nhap cua cac hd gia dinh cac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi dang cd xu hirdng tang len. Sd lugng cae hd gia dinh cd thu nhap khoang 5000 USD/nam d cac nude dang phat trien tang gap ddi tir 217 trieu hd nam 2003 len 500 trieu hd nam 2008. Hon niia. dan sd ciia cac nude dang phat trien tre hon nhieu so vdi cae nude phat trien. Nam 2008, ed 46,8% dan sd cac nude dang phat trien ed do tudi dudi 24. trong khi dd d cac nude phat trien chi cd 29,7%. Dan sd tre khien kha nang tieu thy hang boa o cac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi cd xu hudng cao ban cac nude phat trien. Day la co hdi ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep eua cac nude dang bi khiing hoang mudn xuat khau hang hoa vao cac thi trudng mdi

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRU:\G DOING so 11 (51) thang 11/2009 35

Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng Cac nen kinh te mdi noi...

ndi nham tranh nhirng tac ddng khdng tdt ciia khimg hoang kinh t8 ihk gidi. Nhiing sd lieu tren day chimg td cae nen kinh te mdi noi va dang phat trien dang cd nhiing ddng gdp va anh hudng ngay cang tang ddi vdi nen kinh te the gidi trong nhieu ITnh vyc nhu tang trudng kinh te, gia ea hang hoa, dy trii ngoai te the gidi, phan chia thu nhap va Igi nhuan kinh doanh... Neu nhu nam 1970, xuat khau eiia eac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi chi chiem 20% tdng kim ngach xuat khau eua the gidi, thi nam 2008 eon sd nay la 34,9%. Nam 2008, eac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi chiem tdi 44,7% GDP toan eau, trong dd An Do va Trung Qudc ddng gdp tdi VA muc tang GDP eua eac nen kinh te mdi ndi^. Cac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi ciing tieu thy tdi 50% nang lugng toan cau va chiem den 4/5 miic tang nhu cau dau lira trong 5 nam qua, dac biet la tir phia Trung Qudc. Nhdm nude nay ciing dang giir tdi 70% lugng dy trii ngoai te cua the gidi, dung dau la Trung Qudc. Khung hoang tai chinh the gidi khien hang loat nude tren the gidi bi anh hudng nang ne, tuy nhien eac nen kinh te mdi ndi van td ra it bi tac ddng ban va nhd sue tre eua minh cae nen kinh te nay dang dugc coi la ddng luc giup kinh te toan cau hdi phuc.

Sy phat trien nhanh, manh eua eac nen kinh te mdi ndi nhiing nam gan day ciing khien cac nen kinh te nay khdng cdn la san sau eua cac nude phat trien. Mdt sd nen kinh te mdi ndi da va dang gdp phan tao ra nhirng cu bich ldn cho nen kinh te the gidi sau khiing hoang, dac biet la eac nude Ddng A, Nga va mdt sd nude My Latinh. Cae nude nay da timg phai trai qua nhiing eugc khung

hoang nghiem trgng, chang ban nhu khung hoang ng eua eac nude My Latinh cudi thap ky 1980, khiing hoang tai chinh tien te chau A nam 1997-1998, khiing hoang ng d Nga cudi thap ky 1990, vi vay da ed kinh nghiem khac phyc khung hoang. Trong eugc khung hoang tai chinh the gidi lan nay, hang loat cac the che toan eau nhu IMF, WB deu to ra bat luc va khdng du kha nang giiip dd cac nude bi khung hoang hdi phyc. Ben canh do, cac nude giau nhu My, Nhat Ban, EU khong the gugng day sau khiing hoang bdi khiing hoang tai ehinh lan nay xuat phat chu yeu tir ehinh sach phat trien yeu kem eiia cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien, eu the la My, sau do lay lan sang eac nude cdng nghiep khac, khien cac nen kinh te phat trien roi vao suy thoai. Tir nhiing nguyen nhan sau xa ciia cuge khung hoang, ed the thay eac nude cdng nghiep phat trien mudn thoat khoi khimg hoang chi cd the dya vao cac nen kinh te mdi ndi - nhiing nude da ed kinh nghiem trai qua cac cuge khiing hoang tuong tu ddng thdi la ngudi quyet dinh mire tang GDP toan cau trong nam 2009 va vai nam tiep theo. . i ^

2. Cac nen kinh te mdi noi giai cu'u nen kinh te the gidi thoat khoi khung hoang

a. Gidi ciru kinh te the gi&i nha nhicng no luc thoat khoi khiing hoang kinh te trong nic&c

Cuge khung hgang tai chinh toan c^u tac

ddng manh den cae nen kinh ik mdi noi

trong hai nam 2008 va 2009. Tuy nhien. so

vdi cae nen kinh ik phat tri§n, thi eac n̂ n

kinh te mdi ndi ed kha nang phuc hdi nhanh

Tap chi nghien ciru CII.AU PHI & TRUING DOING s6 11 (51) thang 11/2009

Cac nen kinh te mdi noi.. Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng

hem. tir dd thiie day kinh te toan clu tang trudng trd lai. Trong qua trinh giai cim nen kinh te the gidi thoat khdi khung hoang, vai trd cua BRIC va mdt sd nen kinh te mdi ndi chau A dac biet quan trgng, cu the la d cac khia canh sau:

Thit nhdt, tdc do tang trudng kinh te ciia cac nen kinh te mdi ndi da phyc hdi nhanh chdng sau khung hoang, bii dap mdt phan tdc do tang trudng kinh te am cua hau het cac

Bang 2: Toe do tang trudng GDP

nude cdng nghiep phat trien, tir dd keo kinh te the gidi phuc hdi.

Khdng gidng nhu cae nude chau Au. cac nen kinh te mdi ndi khdng phu thugc nang ne vao thi trudng bat ddng san cua My, vi vay khi khiing hoang xay ra bat ngudn tir My, cac nen kinh te mdi ndi van du thdi gian de chdng chgi. Tuy cd bi tac ddng nang ne tir khiing hoang, nhung kha nang hdi phyc ciia cac nen kinh te mdi ndi nhanh ban (bang 2).

cua mot so nen kinh te mdi ndi (%)

Nude Cac nen kinh te mdi noi chau A trong dd: +Trung Qudc + An Do + ASEAN-5 + 4 NIEs Cac nen kinh te moi noi chau Au Nga Brazil Mehico Cac nude cong nghiep phat trien The gidi

2008 6,8 9,0 7,3 4,9 1,5 2,9 5,6 5,1 1,3 0,9 3,2

2009 3,3 6,5 4,5 0,0 -5,6 -3,7 -6,0 -1,3 -3,7 -3,8 -1,3

2010 5,3 7,5 5,6 2,3 0,8 0,8 0,5 2,2 1,0 0,0 1,9

Nguon: IMF, 4/2009

Nam 2008, tdc do tang trudng GDP ciia eac nen kinh te mdi ndi chau A^ dat 6,8%, sau dd giam cdn 3,3% vao nam 2009 va ed kha nang phyc hdi rat nhanh, dat 5,3% vao nam 2010. Day la khu vyc cd tdc do tang trudng GDP anh hudng ldn nhat den tdc do tang trudng GDP toan cau. Bang 2 cho thay, trong khi cae nude cdng nghiep phat trien dat tdc do tang trudng am 3,8% vao nam 2009 va cd kha nang chi dat muc tang trudng bang 0 vao nam 2010, thi cae nen kinh te mdi ndi deu ed mire tang trudng cao ban va dy bao se dat mirc tang trudng duong tir 0,8% (chau Au), 0,5% (Nga), 2,2% (Brazil),

1% (Mehico). Nhiing con sd tren cho thay chi cd cac nen kinh te mdi ndi mdi cd kha nang giup kinh te toan cau nhanh chdng hdi phyc tir mirc tang trudng -1,3% nam 2009 len mirc 1,9% vao nam 2010.

Trong sd cac nen kinh te mdi ndi. Trung Qudc va An Do la hai nude cd nhiing ddng gdp rat tich cyc trong viec giiip the gidi thoat khdi khiing hoang. Day la hai nude duy nhat trong sd 15 nen kinh te ldn nhat the gidi dat tdc do tang trudng duong trong nam 2009. Nam 2009. tdc do tang trudng kinh le ciia Trung Qudc la 6,5%, An Do la 4.5% va dy bao nam 2010 tdc do tang truong kinh te cua

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUING DOiNG so 11 (51) thang 11/2009

Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng Cac nen kinh te mdi noi..

hai nude nay tuong img la 7,5%. va 5,6%. Tdc do tang trudng duong va kha nhanh ciia hai nSn kinh t^ tren ed anh hudng ldn den chieu hudng tang trudng GDP toan eau. Tdc do tang trudng nhanh cua hai nen kinh te mdi ndi ldn nhat thi gidi trong khi hau het cac nude khac deu khdng tranh dugc khung hoang va cd tdc do tang trudng am khien the gidi ngay cang ndi nhieu den ly thuyet decoupling (thuyet tach biet). Ly thuyet nay cho rang khi hau nhu cac nude deu khdng tranh khdi nhiing tac dgng ngan ban va dai ban eua khung hoang, thi Trung Qudc va An Do van tiep tyc tang trudng nhd nhiing chinh sach mang tinh chat "tach biet chien luge -strategic decoupling" va "tach biet chien thuat - tactical decoupling", giup the gidi phyc hdi va lam giam dang ke vai trd thdng tri ciia My va eac nude phuong Tay.

Thir hai, nhirng chinh sach, bien phap

chdng khiing hoang ciia cac nen kinh te mdi

ndi cho thay vai trd ngay cang thu hep eua

IMF, budc the gidi phai cdng nhan sire manh

ndi lye eua cac nen kinh te nay.

Khac vdi cuge khiing hoang tai ehinh

chau A nam 1997-1998 khi dd IMF cd vai

trd la "cim canh" ddi vdi nhieu nen kinh te

mdi ndi chau A bi khung hoang nhu Han

Qudc, Indonesia, Thai Lan..., cuge khimg

hoang tai chinh toan cau lan nay cho thay sy

bat lye ciia IMF. Vdi ngudn gdp vdn chu yeu

tir My, Dire, Nhat Ban, Anh va Phap, tdng

vdn eiia IMF nam 2008 la hon 200 ty USD.

Vao nam 2008, do doanh thu giam, IMF da

phai quyet dinh ban mdt phan vang dy trir va

tai cuge hgp thugng dinh cua G20 td chirc

vao thang 9 nam 2009 IMF da yeu eSu cac

nude thanh vien gdp them vdn de ddi pho

vdi eugc khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau va

G20'* da ddng y giiip IMF bd sung quy len

mirc 500 ty USD\

Nhu vay, vdi tdng quy chi cd hon 200 ty

USD vao nam 2008, IMF khdng du kha nang

giup eac nude tren the gidi thoat khdi khiing

hoang. Rut kinh nghiem tir cuoc khung

hoang chau A nam 1997-1998, cac nen kinh

te mdi ndi da ty cim minh bang nhiing chinh

sach md rdng tien te rieng ed. Trung Qudc

quyet dinh bom 600 ty USD vao nen kinh te

thdng qua cac ke hoach chi tieu manh tay

cho eg sd ha tang va xay dyng. Han Quoc

ban hanh ke hoach giai ciru nen kinh te trong

nude bang mdt khoan tai ehinh khdng Id tri

gia 130 ty USD, tuong duong vdi 13% GDP

cua Han Qudc. Tuong ty, tai nhieu nude

chau A khac nhu Cambodia, Thai Lan,

Malaysia, Singapore, chinh sach ndi Idng

tien te ciing dugc ap dung triet de, dac biet la

cac nude nay da gianh nhii'ng khoan tien ldn

de dau tu eo sd ha tang, kich thich tieu diing

trong nude, cai thien cae dieu kien cham soc

sire khde, cai each tien luong, dau tu phat

trien ndng nghiep ndng thdn, tao viec lam

cho ngudi lao dgng... Ngoai ra, eac nude

mdi ndi da cd nhiing ddng thai ciing hgp tac

de vugt qua khiing hoang bang hinh thirc cho

vay lan nhau, tranh sir chd dgi tir phia cae

the che tai ehinh qudc te. Trong khi IMF bat

dau khdi dgng chuong trinh cho vay khan

cap vdi sd vdn hep hdi hon 200 ty USD. thi

mdt sd. nen kinh te mdi ndi da trd thanh

nhirng ngudi "cho vay" eiia the gidi, chang

ban nhu viec Trung Qudc chg vay khan cap

ddi vdi Pakistan hoac Iceland dam phan xin

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 11 (51) thang 11/2009

Cac nen kinh te mdi noi... Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng

vay tien cua Nga trudc khi IMF can thiep. Dieu nay cho thay quyen lye tai chinh th§ gidi dang cd su thay.ddi, trong dd cac n8n kinh te mdi ndi trd thanh "cim canh" cua khiing hoang.

Thu ba. mdt sd nen kinh te mdi ndi cd dy trir ngoai te rat ldn. cho phep hg giir gia dugc ddng tien ndi te khi khiing hoang xay ra. ban che dugc sy lay lan mirc do sau cua

khiing hoang kinh te the gidi.

Bang 3: Du tru ngoai te va can can tai khoan hien hanh cua mot s6 nin kinh t§ tren the gidi

Nude

I. Trung Qudc 2. Nhat Ban 3. Nga 4. Dai Loan 5. An Do 6. Han Qudc 7. Hdng Kdng 8. Brazil 9. Singapore 10. Dire

Du trir ngoai te^ (ty USD)

2132 (tinh din 6/2009) 1019 (tinh den 6/2009) 413 (tinh den 9/2009) 321 (tinh den 4/2009) 281 (tinh den 9/2009) 254 (tinh den 9/2009) 233 (tinh din 8/2009)

225 (tinh din 10/2009) 166 (tinh din 3/2009) 144 (tinh den 2/2009)

Can can tai khoan vang lai (% GDP)

2008 1 2009 5,5 6,3

-

6,1 0.5 6,4 9,7 -2.8 -2.5 -0,7 2.9 14.2 7,2 -1,8 -1,8 14,8 13,1

-

2010 : 5,8

-

1.4 10,7 \ -2,8 3,0 i 5,2 i -1.8 ! 11.2 '

-

Nguon: Theo wikipedia vd IMF 4/2009

Bang 3 minh hoa rd 10 nen kinh te cd dy trir ngoai te ldn nhat tren the gidi nam 2009. 10 nen kinh te nay chiem tdi 60% dy trii ngoai te ciia the gidi, trong dd cd tdi 8 nen kinh te thugc ve nhdm cac nen kinh te mdi ndi, dd la Trung Qudc, Nga, Dai Loan, An Do, Han Qudc. Hdng Kdng. Brazil va Singapore, trong dd cd tat ca thanh vien ciia nhdm BRIC. Dy trir ngoai te cua BRIC tinh din giira nam 2009 dat mire 3.051 ty USD, vugt xa miic dy trii ngoai te eua G7, trong dd Trung Qudc la nude cd dy tru ngoai te ldn nhat la 2132 ty USD, chilm 70% du tru ngoai te ciia BRIC, sau dd la Nga. Ngoai ra. cac nen kinh te khac cd dy trii ngoai te ldn deu thude ve cae nen kinh te mdi ndi chau A. Du trii ngoai te ldn khien eac nen kinh te

mdi ndi giam bdt dugc sy le thude vao ddng dd la My. Khi khiing hoang kinh te the gidi nd ra, cac nen kinh te mdi ndi da nhanh chdng dn dinh dugc gia ddng ndi te cua minh trong mdt thdi gian ngan bang each tung ngoai hdi mua lai ddng ndi te trdi ndi tren thi trudng. Do vay, cuge khiing hoang tai chinh the gidi lan nay bat ngudn tir cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien da khdng the lay lan vdi mirc do sau den eac nen kinh te mdi ndi va dang phat trien. Dy trii ngoai te ldn ciia nhieu nen kinh te mdi ndi thyc sir da giup the gidi tranh dugc mdt cuoc dai khung hoang kinh te keo dai nhd cac nen kinh te mdi ndi sir dyng ngoai te trong nude de kich cau kinh te va duy tri sy dn dinh cua ddng ndi te.

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUAG Dd.\G so 11 (51) thang 11/2009 39

Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng Cac nen kinh te moi noi..

Hon thi niia, vdi ngudn dy trir ngoai te khdng 16, eac nin kinh te mdi ndi ngay cang cd tieng ndi quan trgng hon trong eac dien dan kinh tl thi gidi ciing nhu cd nhiing anh hudng ldn hon ddi vdi cae td chiie tai chinh da phuong. Vdi ngudn dy trii 3.051 ty USD, nhdm BRIC ed nhiing de xuat nham tai eau true lai he thdng tai ehinh qudc te sau khung hoang. Mdt phan trong ke hoach xay dyng lai he thdng tai chinh qudc te la viec nhdm BRIC se cung cap ngudn tai chinh cho Quy Tien te Qudc te bang each mua trai phieu eua IMF de tang cudng anh hudng tai quy nay. Trong khiing hoang tai ehinh the gidi, vai trd cho vay cua BRIC trong viec cho cae nude thugc nhdm dang phat trien va mdi ndi la rat ldn. Nhd sy giiip do cho vay eua mdt sd nude nhu Nga, Trung Qudc, nhieu nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi da khdng phai eau ciru IMF vdi gdi ciiu trg kem theo nhirng dieu kien cai each ha khac. Anh hudng ciia nhdm BRIC vi vay tiep tyc tang nhanh tren thi trudng tai chinh tien te the gidi, dac biet la tac ddng manh den ty gia ciia ddng do la My.

Ciing vdi dy trii ngoai te ldn, can can tai khoan vang lai eiia nhieu nen kinh te mdi ndi ludn dat miic duong (bang 3). Dieu dd cd nghia la tai khoan vang lai d nhieu nen kinh te mdi ndi ludn d miic thang du, dac biet la cac nen kinh te mdi ndi chau A va chau Au. Cac nen kinh te mdi ndi My Latinh ed tham hyt tai khoan vang lai, nhung d muc do rat khiem tdn. Trudc khi khung hoang tai chinh the gidi xay ra, thang du tai khoan vang lai ciia mdt sd nen kinh te mdi ndi ludn d muc tren 5% GDP (thang du lanh manh), dac biet Trung Qudc nam 2007 dat thang du tai

khoan vang lai 5,5% GDP, Nga 6,1% GDP, Dai Loan 6,4% GDP, Hdng Kdng 14,2% GDP, Singapore 14,8% GDP, Malaysia 15,4% GDP... Mii'c thang du nay mdt phan la do cae nude mdi ndi chau A cd xu hudng tiet kiem cao. Khi khung hoang xay ra, can can tai khoan vang lai cua nhieu nude bi tham hyt nang ne, tuy nhien can can tai khoan vang lai ciia mot sd nen kinh te mdi ndi chau A ke tren van tiep tuc thang du d mirc cao. Nam 2009, thang du tai khoan vang lai ciia Trung Qudc dat 6,3% GDP, Nga dat 0,5% GDP, Dai Loan 9,7% GDP, Han Qudc 2,9% GDP, Hdng Kdng 7,2% GDP, Singapore 13,1% GDP. Mot dilu dl dang nhan thSy la cae nude dat thang du tai khoan vang lai deu thude ve chau A cd thu nhap dau ngudi cao. Thang du tai khoan vang lai d cac nude nay hau het xuat phat tir ty le tiet kiem tang cao trong dan chiing. Sau cuge khiing hoang tai ehinh tien te chau A nam 1997-1998, cae nude nay da riit ra nhieu kinh nghiem ve viec can ddi giira tiet kiem va dau tu, giira xuat khau va nhap khau. Cdn mdt sd nude mdi ndi khac nhu An Do, Viet Nam, Brazil, tham hut tai khoan vang lai van xay ra bdi day la nhiing nude cd thu nhap dau ngudi thap hon, ed trinh do phat trien kinh te thap hon, do vay van can den dau tu nhieu ban tiet kiem, nhap khau may mdc thilt bi nhieu hon xuat khau hang hoa.

Thang du tai khoan vang lai d nhieu nen

kinh te mdi ndi cho thSy khi khung hoang tai

chinh toan cau xay ra, cae nude nay cd du

dieu kien de ung phd vdi khiing hoang.

Thang du tai khoan vang lai giiip cac nude

nay khdng phai di vay d ben ngoai, vi vay

khdng phai chiu nhirng tdn th4t nang nl tu

Tap chi nghien ciru CII.AU PHI & TRUING DOING so 11 (51) thang 11/2009

Cac nen kinh temdi ndi.. Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng

khung hoang. Neu tinh theo gia tri tuyet ddi, tinh den thang 6 nam 2009 thang du tai khoan vang lai ciia Trung Qudc len tdi 368 ty USD, dimg hang dau the gidi, Nga thang du 97,6 ty USD, dimg hang thii 4, Singapo 28,4 ty USD, Malaysia 27,4 ty USD, Dai Loan 25 ty USD, Hdng Kdng 22,4 ty USD^ Trong khi dd, cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien lai lam vao tham hut tai khoan vang lai nang ne, chang ban My tham hyt - 393,2 ty USD, khu vuc dong Euro - 133,8 ty USD tinh den thang 4 nam 2009^. Tinh chung cho can can tai khoan vang lai toan the gidi, nam 2008 khi khimg hoang tai chinh the gidi nd ra tren dien rdng, tai khoan vang lai cua cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien ndi chung bi tham hut d mirc -465 ty USD, trong khi dd tai khoan vang lai d eac niroe dang phat trien va mdi ndi thang du ldn d muc 714.4 ty USD (cac nude dang phat trien mdi ndi chau A va Trung Ddng chiem phan ldn mirc thang du nay). Tinh den thang 4 nam 2009. tham hyt tai khoan vang lai ciia cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien la -371,3 ty USD. trong khi cac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi thang du 262,4 ty' USD. Mac dii thang du tai khoan vang lai nam 2009 cua cae nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi cd gia tri thap hon nhieu so vdi nam 2008 do xuat khau bi thu hep, nhung nhung sd lieu tren cho thay cac nude dang phat trien va mdi ndi trong hai nam 2008-2009 da thyc sy giiip nen kinh te the gidi tranh dugc tham hut tai khoan vang lai nang ne nhd bii dap mdt phan tham hyt cua cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien.

Thic tu, thi trudng ndi dia rdng ldn khien cac nen kinh te mdi ndi khdng bi nhiing tac ddng lau dai khi thj trudng xuat khau bi thu

hep, tir dd duy tri dugc tdc do tang trudng kinh te va cac chinh sach kinh te khac.

Nhan thirc dugc tiem nang cua thi trudng ndi dia, cac nen kinh te mdi ndi da tung ra nhiing gdi kich cau ndi dia de du>' tri sy tang trudng va ban che nhirng tac ddng bat Igi khi thi trudng xuat khau bi thu hep trong khung hoang. Gdi kich cau kinh te nay dac biet dugc cac nude mdi ndi chau A su dyng rat hieu qua. Riit kinh nghiem tir khimg hoang tai chinh tien te chau A dien ra each day 10 nam mdt phan la do phy thugc qua mirc vao xuat khau va ngudn vdn nude ngoai. trong cuoc khiing hoang lan nay cac nude mdi ndi da coi tieu diing ndi dia la ddng lye chinh giiip nen kinh te cac nude thoat khdi khiing hoang.

Trong sd cac gdi kich cau trong nude. Trung Qudc la nude chi manh tay ban ca. Vdi gdi kich thich kinh le tri gia 600 ty USD, Trung Qudc keu ggi cac doanh nghiep hudng vao khai thae thi trudng ndi dia de lam dgng lye thiic day tang truong kinh te trong thdi ky khiing hoang. La mdt nude cd tdi 60% kim ngach xuat khau phy thugc vao thi trudng My, EU, Nhat Ban, Trung Qudc nhan thirc rd tinh nghiem trgng ciia khung hoang tai chinh dang danh manh vao 3 thi trudn trgng yeu nay. vi vay cd nhirng giai phap "cap cii'u"" kjp thdi cho cac doanh nghiep. Trong cuoc hdi thao thuong mai qudc gia td chirc tai Bac Kinh, Bd trudng Bg Cdng thuang Trung Qudc cho rang "Chiing ta (Trung Qudc) phai nd lye nhieu hon trong viec bii lai nhirng that thoat xuat khau lir 3 thj trudng ldn bang each chii y khai thae thi Irudns ndi dia va thi trudna tir nhirna nirdc

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRir\G D .̂̂ G s6 11 (51) thang 11/2009 41

Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng Cac nen kinh te mdi noi..

thir ba; phai nhanh chdng nhan ra tam quan

trgng ciia thi trudng chau A, Trung Ddng va

Nam My"^

Ciing vdi Trung Qudc, hang loat cac nen

kinh te mdi ndi khac ciing tan dung thi

trudng ndi dia de lam giai phap khac phuc

khung hoang. Han Qudc tung ra gdi kich eau

tri gia 130 ty USD de giai cim nen kinh te,

chu yeu la nham day manh tieu dimg ndi dia.

Singapore dua ra gdi kich eau kinh te tri gia

13 ty USD, Malaysia ed ke hoach chi tieu

2,69 ty USD, Indonesia da tan thanh gdi kich

thich kinh tl tri gia 5,15 ty USD, Thai Lan

chi 5 ty USD, Viet Nam tung ra gdi kich eau

6 ty USD... Cae gdi kich cau ciia chinh phii

cac nude chau A dua ra trong 2 nam 2008-

2009 chu yeu nham vao khai thae thi trudng

ndi dia thdng qua kenh dau tu co sd ha tang,

hd trg lai suat cho doanh nghiep, phat trien

ndng nghiep ndng thdn, dau tu cho giao due

va y te, cai each he thdng an sinh xa hdi.

Cimg vdi cac nen kinh te mdi ndi chau A,

cac nen kinh te mdi ndi khac tren the gidi

ciing sir dung gdi kich cau de khai thae thi

trudng ndi dia nham khac phuc khiing

hoang. Brazil dua ra gdi ciru tri kinh te tri

gia 13 ty USD vdi hy vgng day manh kinh te

trong niroc phat trien, giam thieu tac ddng

eiia khiing hoang. Nga tung ra gdi kich cau

tri gia 79 ty USD de chdng suy giam tang

trudng kinh te, bao gdm eac khoan hd trg

cho cae hang d td, ITnh vuc ndng nghiep, xay

dyng. Nhirng dien bien tren cho thay tinh

hinh tieu diing qudc ndi d nhieu niroe mdi

ndi cd xu hudng tang len trong khimg hoang.

Dieu nay khien san xuat trong nude tiep tyc

dyoc duy tri, ban che dugc tinh trang that

nghiep, ddng thdi kich thich kinh te tiep tuc

tang trudng.

h. Gidi cini kinh te the gi&i nha vai trd lan

han trong cdc the che tdi chinh quoc te

Nhirng nd lyc tap the ciia cac nen kinh te mdi ndi nham khac phyc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau da the hien vai trd ngay cang ldn hon ciia nhdm nude nay trong nen kinh te the gidi, dac biet la vai trd cua cae niroe mdi ndi thugc khdi BRIC va nhdm G20. Nhirng tac ddng bat Igi keo dai ciia eugc khung hoang cho thay sy bat luc ciia cac to chuc tai chinh qudc te trong viec giiip do cae qudc gia giai quyet khimg hoang va trong viec vyc day nen kinh te toan cau. IMF thue su mat di tieng ndi quan trgng trong cuoe khung hoang hien nay va ciing khdng dii kha nang de hd trg cac nude. Ngan hang Trung uong chau Au ciing da nd lyc bet sire minh de chdng lai khung hoang bang cac bien phap hd trg thi trudng tien te va eat giam lai suat, nhung ciing khdng ed du kha nang giai quyet khiing hoang. Trong khi dd, cac nen kinh te mdi ndi da tim ra dugc mdt sd giai phap quan trgng de giup the gidi khac phuc khiing hgang. Tai Hdi nghi cap cao Nhom cae nude phat trien va mdi ndi - Hdi nghi G20"^ td chirc d Pittsburgh (My) trong hai ngay 24 va 25/9/2009. Hdi nghi G20 da dua ra Tuyen bd chung, trong dd dua ra hang loat cac cam ket thuc day kinh te toan eau tang trudng ben virng thdi ky hau khiing hoang. Hdi nghi da thdng qua hang loat cac van de cap bach mang tinh toan cau nhu: tiep tue duy tri cae bien phap kich thich kinh te. cai each CO cau kinh te va tang eudng vai trd ciia nhdm nude mdi ndi trong cac van de kinh te

Tap chi nghien ciru CH.AU PHI & TRUING DOING so 11 (51) thang 11/2009

Cac nen kinh te mdi noi. Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng

qudc te, gidi ban miic tien thudng cua nganh ngan hang, thue day vdng dam phan Doha... Hdi nghi ciing cdng nhan vai trd va nhiing ddng gdp ngay cang quan trgng ciia khu vuc chau A va chau My Latinh trgng viec giai quyet cae van de chung tgan cau, nhat tri chuyen 5% quyen bd phieu trong IMF tir eac nude phat trien sang cac nen kinh te mdi ndi. Ddng thdi, Hdi nghi G20 de nghi cai each WB vao nam 2010 va cai each IMF vao thang 11 nam 2011 de nang cao tinh hieu lyc ciia hai td chirc nay, tranh de xay ra mdt cuge khung hoang tai chinh tuong ty nhu nam 2008-2009. Anh hudng ngay cang tang ciia eac nen kinh te mdi ndi khu vyc chau A va My Latinh tai Hdi nghi G20 vira qua cho thay cac nen kinh te mdi ndi ngay cang cd nhiing anh hudng va vai trd ldn hon trong viec giai quyet khiing hoang va thuc day kinh te toan cau phat trien.

Ciing vdi vai trd ngay cang tang ciia nhdm nude dang phat trien G20 trong cac dien dan va td chirc kinh te qudc te, nhdm BRIC ciing the hien tieng ndi quan trgng ciia minh trong cdng eugc chdng khimg hoang tai chinh toan cau. Nhdm nude nay da keu ggi the gidi phai cd nhirng nd luc tap the de khac phuc khung hoang tai ehinh toan cau. Tai Hdi nghi thugng dinh lin thii nhat cua BRIC (16/6/2009), Nga va Brazil tuyen bd xem xet viec mua 10 ty USD trai phieu ciia IMF, ddng thdi ban trai phieu ciia My. An Do cam ket se mua mdt lugng trai phieu cua IMF tuong duang vdi eon sd ma Nga va Brazil da bd ra. Trung Qudc ciing xem xet den viec mua it nhat 50 ty USD trai phieu ciia IMF. Nga, Trung Qudc va Brazil ciing trien khai kl hoach da dang hoa eac khoan du trii ngoai

te cua minh. Dieu nay tac ddng manh den IMF va nhieu td chirc kinh te qudc te khac. La nhimg nude cd dy trii: ngoai te ldn tren the gidi, nhdm BRIC dang tao ra mdt anh hudng nhat dinh tdi nen kinh te toan cau.

Ngay sau cuge hgp ciia BRIC. Hdi nghi thugng dinh ciia Td chirc hgp tac Thugng Hai (SCO) - gdm 6 nude Trung Qudc. Kyrgystan, Kazakstan, Nga, Tajikistan va Uzbekistan - da dugc td chirc tai Nga. Day la dien dan de Nga va Trung Qudc the hien vai trd cua minh trong he thdng chinh tri the gidi. SCO tap trung thao luan ve viec hgp tac cua cac nude tren de ddi phd vdi eugc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau. chu nghia khung bd, chdng budn ban ma tuy va tdi pham xuyen qudc gia.

Tai dien dan cua Lien hgp qudc ban ve khiing hoang tai chinh va kinh te the gidi td chirc tai My thang 6 nam 2009. nhdm BRIC da cd nhirng quan diem rieng ve giai phap chdng khiing hoang. Brazil cho rang dien dan ciia Lien hgp qudc nham ddi phd vdi khiing hoang lan nay la mdt co hdi lich sir de tai cau true cac td chirc tai chinh. tao dieu kien cho cac nude thanh vien Lien hgp qudc gan nhau bon de ciing cai each he thdng quan tri kinh te loan eau. Phia An Do cho rang de ddi phd vdi khung hoang tai chinh toan cau. can thiet phai cai each he thdng quan tri kinh te toan cau ca trong giai doan ngan ban va dai ban, trong dd bao gdm ca cai each Lien hgp qudc va he thdng BreUon Woods - nen tang cho sy ra ddi IMF va WB. Bd truong Ngoai giao An Do phat bieu "cac nude dang phat trien khdng phai la khu \ yc gay ra khiing hoang. nhung lai chiu tac ddng

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRU.\G DOING so 11 (51) thang 11/2009 43

Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng Cac nen kinh te mdi ndi..

nang ne eua khung hoang. Xuat khau eua hg

bi anh hudng nang ne va hg dang phai chiu

su ra di eua cac ddng vdn dau tu qudc te"".

Vi vay. An Do yeu cau cac nude cdng

nghiep phat trien can dua ra nhiing cam ket

cu the giup the gidi vugt qua khung hoang.

Nga cd quan diem rd rang hon ve vai trd eua

Lien hgp qudc va cae nude dang phat trien.

Tai Hdi nghi lan nay, Nga cho rang Lien hgp

qudc cd nhiing nd lyc quan trgng trong viec

keu ggi eac nude tren the gidi hudng vao

hanh ddng tap the de ddi phd vdi khung

hoang. Nga eGng nhan manh vai trd cua cae

nude dang phat trien trong viec giup the gidi

khac phuc khung hoang, ddng thdi khang

dinh vai trd cua cae nha tai trg mdi (bag gdm

ca Nga va Trung Qudc) trong viec cung cap

tai chinh cho cae nude can trg giup chdng

khung hoang va yeu cau cac td ehire tai

chinh the gidi nhu IMF va WB phai nhanh

chdng cai each va tai cau true nham thich

nghi vdi tinh hinh mdi. Phia Trung Qudc dua

ra 4 de xuat cimg thao luan tai Lien hgp qudc

de chdng khung hoang, bao gdm: +) Phdi

hgp cae chinh sach kinh te vT md de chdng

khung hoang; +) Thuc day sy tang trudng

eua thuong mai qudc te bang each phai md

cira thi trudng rdng hon niia cho hang hoa

eac nude dang phat trien; +) Tang cudng hgp

tac phat trien qudc te, yeu eau cae nude cdng

nghiep phat trien phai cam ket chi 0,7%

GNP de vien trg cho cae nude dang phat

trien, giam va xoa ng cho cac nude ngheo;

+) Tang eudng hgp tac Nam - Nam, coi day

la giai phap quan trgng de nang cao anh

hudng eua nhdm nude dang phat trien trudc

nhirng van de cap bach cua the gidi.

Nhu vay, so vdi cae nen kinh te cong

nghiep phat triln, cac nen kinh te mdi noi

tuy ed bi tac ddng manh cua khung hoang tai

chinh toan cau nhung van cd kha nang phue

hdi nhanh hon ca, giiip the gidi chdng lay lai

su can bang sau khung hoang. Nhirng gi ma

eac nen kinh te mdi ndi da va dang hanh

dgng nham chdng khimg hoang cho thay vai

trd va tieng ndi ngay cang tang ciia nhdm

nude nay tren chinh trudng qudc te. Sire

manh va kha nang hdi phyc sau khung hoang

eua cae nen kinh te mdi ndi khien nhieu nha

nghien eiiu dy doan ve viec hinh thanh mot

trat ty kinh te qudc te mdi, trgng dd cd vai

trd quan trgng eua Trung Qudc, Nga, Brazil

va An Do. Cho den nay, khung hoang tai

chinh the gidi da qua giai doan nguy khon

nhat va kinh te the gidi da bat dau hdi phue.

Dd la nhd cd su ddng gdp rat tich cue ciia

cae nen kinh te mdi ndi nham giai cim the

gidi thoat khdi khimg hoang kinh te lau dai.

Chii thich:

' Theo Tuoitre Online, thir hai, 28/9/2009.

^ Theo IMF 4/2009 : , .,

Cac nen kinh te mdi ndi chau A bao gom Trung Qudc, An Do, 4 NIEs, ASEAN.

G20 bao gdm nhdm cac nude dang phat triln, dugc thanh lap vao ngay 20/8/2003. G20 bao gdm cac nude: Agentina, Bolivia, Brazil. Chile, Trung Qudc, Cuba, Ai Cap, Guatemala, An Do, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Nam Phi, Tanzania, Thai Lan, Urugoay. Dirng dau va din dat G20 la Brazil, Trung Qudc, An Do va Nam Phi.

^ Theo wikipedia, IMF.

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 11 (51) thang 11/2009

Cac nen kinh temdi noi.. Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng

Du trii ngoai te dugc xip theo thii hang tir cao den thap

^ Theo CIA worid Factbook 2009.

^ Theo IMF 4/2009

^ Theo Asia Times, China Digital Times, 12/11/2008.

'° Hdi nghi G20 la dien dan ciia Bd trudng tai chinh va thdng ddc ngan hang trung uong ciia 19 nen kinh te va EU, gdm Anh, Argentina, Australia, Arap Xeut, An do, Brazil, Canada, Dire, Han Qudc, Indonesia, Italia, Mexico, My, NHat, Nga, Nam Phi, Phap, Thd NhT Ky, Trung Qudc va EU. Ciing vdi dd la nhdm td chirc kinh te qudc te gdm WB va IMF.

' ' Theo People Daily Online, 27/6/2009

Tai lieu tham khao

1. Tran Thi Lan Huong, Cdch mang Xanh chdu Phi vd nhirng vdn de dgt ra trong phdt trien ndng nghiep a chdu Phi, Tap chi Nghien ciiu Chau Phi va Trung Ddng, sd 8 nam 2008.

2. Tran Thi Lan Huong, Dieu kien tu nhien vd thuc trgng phdt trien ndng nghiep hien nay d chdu Phi, Tap chi Nghien cim Chau Phi va Trung Ddng, sd I nam 2009.

3. Alexander Sarris, Outlook, Opportunities and Constraints for African Agricultural Markets and Trade, FAO, 12-13/11/2007.

4. Christopher L. Delgado, Africa's Changing Agricultural Development Strategies: Past and Present Papadigms as a Guide to the Future, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRl). Discussion Paper

3,2006. :.:;„.,•.„;,: .: . . . . . ,

5. Lidia Cabral and Ian Scoones, Narratives of Agricultural Policy in Africa: What Role for

Ministries of Agriculture? Future Agricultures Consortium Workshop, 3/2006.

6. NEPAD, Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, July 2003

7. Steven Haggblade, Building on Successes in African Agriculture, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRl), Focus 12, Brief 1 of 10, 4/2004.

8. Enonomic Commission for Africa, Toward a Green Revolution in Africa: Harnessing Science and Technology for Sustainable Modernisation of Agricuture and Rural Transformation (SMART/AGRI), June 2003.

9. Hans Holmen. Why no Green Revolution in Africa?, Cun^ent Issue in International Rural Development, African Agricuture Today, 8/2004. ' \

10. Keijiro Otsuka, A Summary of the Workshop on Green Revolution in Asia and its Transferability to Africa, Intemational Development Research Institute.

11. The Rockefeller Foundation, Africa's Turn a New Green Revolution for the 2f' Century, July 2006.

12. Dinh, Do Diic (chii bien), 2006, ''Tinh hinh chinh tri - kinh te ca bdn ciia chdu Phi", NXB KHXH.

13. Dinh, Do Dire (chu bien), 2008. ''Nam Phi - Con dudng tien tdi ddn chii, cdng bdng vd thinh vuang'\ NXB KHXH.

14. Dinh, Dd Dire, Quan he hgp tac Viet Nam - chau Phi, T/c Cdng san, sd 82 nam 2005. ' '•

15. Cac trang web: •www.en.wikipedia.

Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUING DOING so 11 (51) thang 11/2009