Can We Measure HOPE ?

Toshiya Hoshino, PHDOsaka University

“Can We Measure Peace? Does it Help in Achieving it?” 29 October 2009

The 3rd OECD World Forum

Can We Measure Peace ?

Can We Measure Peace ?

YES, WE CAN !

And, It is IMPORTANT !

The World Full of Challenges

TERRORISM HUNGER

Economic Crisis

紛争・貧困・飢餓

The Bottom Billion

Climate ChangeWeapons of Mass

Destruction

Swine flu

核実験・ミサイル発射

拉致

海

賊

Cyber Attacks

Natural Disasters

Military Modernization

破たん国家 PANDEMIC

Transnational Crimes

Drug/Human Trafficking

Humanitarian Crises

Refugees難民問題

Gender-based violence

Ethnic cleansing

砂漠化

GENOCIDE

Child soldiers

クーデター

Human Rights Abuses

構造的暴力 Crime against humanity

差別

Religious Conflict

不寛容

Dictatorship

抑圧

Energy issues

PiracyPOVERTY

How We Measure Peace ?

A Paradigm Shift –GDP vs. GPI (Global Peace Index)

1. State-centric vs. Human-centered2. National-focus vs.

Global/Interdependence-focus3. Objectivity vs. Inter-subjectivity

Shared Fates and Security

“In the world in which we now live, national security and human security are becoming increasingly intertwined. The path forward that will save humanity is one which can bring

about "shared security", in which various nations, ethnicities, races and religions coexist while acknowledging the

differences among them. In other words, it is to bring about a "shared security" through the principles of yu-ai or

"fraternity“ Yukio Hatoyama (Japan), September 2009 at the United Nations

“The accelerated globalization of recent decades has linked people’s fates together in ways we could only have imagined when the United Nations was created 64 years ago” Ban Ki-Moon, September 2009 at the United Nations

Global Performance

GPI Ranking and Change:

Top 7: 2009 2008 2007

1. New Zealand 4 2

2. Denmark 2 3

3. Norway 3 1

4. Iceland 1

5. Austria 10 10

6. Sweden 13 7

7. Japan 5 5Tent City for Jobless temp-workers over the New Years Period in Tokyo, Japan(Dec 2008/Jan 2009)

Global Performance GPI Ranking and Change:

Bottom 7: 2009 2008 2007

1. Iraq /144 1/140 1/121

2. Afghanistan 4 -

3. Somalia 2 -

4. Israel 5 3

5. Sudan 3 2

6. DRC 13 -

7. Chad 6 -UN staffers killed in the blast in Kabul, Afghanistan

Can We Project Changes ?

Progressions and Regressions:

Can we predict/prevent the negative downturn?

Can we predict/promote the positive upturn?

We need to see the signs/symptoms/signals…

Can we, then, estimate/alert the projected changes?

A New Perspective: “HOPE”

Is it possible to create a new line of measurements that can project the progress (or regress)

to promote the positive force for upturnand to prevent the negative force for

downturn ?

“HOPE”: Holistic Progress Estimate

HOPE- Hope is what people cherish to create a better future.- International community should combine forces to enhance peace of individuals and community in a vulnerable situation.- For that purpose;“Human security” approach is useful

- addressing particular human “insecurities”- through two strategies

“protection”“empowerment”

HOPE

In pursuit of “Human Security” interest, it should be given the focus to provide HOPE to the people under severe challenge.

GPI is a holistic measures for peace.

“HOPE (Holistic Progress Estimate)” measurement, if it can be operationalized, may be able to enhance the utility of GPI.

Thank you very muchhoshino@osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp