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CAPITAL

" ",

2011 8 25 2011 01 1

201111

40 2 104 5 21

201112CONTENTS

1

4 17 22

25

26 31 32 35 37

39 42 44 46 49

101 13 0300060351-72181730351-7218178guhl@csic gov.cn2011 01 1

20111352

5659 626568 69 70 71 72 73 74

75 78 79

81

83

201114 4 14

30 40 Tebie Guanzhu

2011151-3 8 9% 30 30 2008 30 30

1 1602 1603 2 1 2 1668 200Tebie Guanzhu201116 500 500 40 120 700 2000 1817 1825 9 2/318301850 38 1861 -1865 150 27 20% 1879 4004 1901 1971 - 3 1860 33% 5.2% 1.8% 1900 15.8% 9.45% 15.11% Tebie Guanzhu

201117 1819 4 30 30 1997 1998 5 2030 1978 2008 100 Tebie Guanzhu201118 1000 123 10% 2008 50% 70% 50% Tebie Guanzhu2011194 2008 2009 12 3 4Tebie Guanzhu20111105 40 10 70% 6 160 A 32 2%0.5% 3 6 10

2 3000 10 5 10 7000 5000 5000 3000 Tebie Guanzhu

2011111 20 6 12 20 1.3 26 13 3 13 +26 40 1 3% 812%1 1 3 234Tebie Guanzhu2011112 W W W W W 1/10 5% 5% Tebie Guanzhu20111 13 20 : 500 500 60% 2008

13 2 . Tebie Guanzhu20111141IPO 35 50 60 230 30 1 30 30 30 34 30 30 30 5 1 1 Tebie Guanzhu20111 15 30 50 2 50 48 30 6 10 10

200 Tebie Guanzhu

2011116 Tebie Guanzhu1+12W 2011 6 24 40 20111 172010 12 1 , , , 5 5 5 2010 18639 2005-2010 21.12% 3000

Tebie Guanzhu

20111182010 77.07% 2.31 2006-20108.3% 40.28% - - -- Tebie Guanzhu20111 19 - 2010 12 1 2009 4 24 1988 1994 1 6 20 2010 31 6249.25.6%2010 17 14 79 2010 1065.6 / 26.5%2010 5 9 30592 181.5%2010 6 10 20 90 1990 IC 2.7% 1999 52% 2 12 IT ICT 2010 GDP 8700 GDP 2001-2010 18.13% 2.73 2001-2010 33.39% 13.92 2010 1800 2005 2.47 Tebie Guanzhu2011120 7020092011 5 27 31 Tebie Guanzhu

20111 21Tebie Guanzhu GDP10% 2010 0 5 W

2011122 2011 6 23 Tebie Guanzhu

20111 23123123Tebie Guanzhu

201112412 Tebie Guanzhu34 W

20111 25Tebie GuanzhuW2011126 90 90 1 3 27 2011

Xuexi Yuandi20111 27Xuexi Yuandi2390 3 1 1 30 2 20 201112831 30 30 -40 10 40%2 20 1 Xuexi Yuandi20111 29Xuexi Yuandi14000 6500 2 40% 2 3

2011130430 1--23 W

( )Xuexi Yuandi

20111 31Xuexi Yuandi

30 2010

2011132123456

90 700 W( )Xuexi Yuandi20111 33Xuexi Yuandi

2011134

Xuexi Yuandi

20111 35Xuexi Yuandi

90 9090 W( )201113690 GDP 1984 15.2%1988 11.3% 1990 3.8%90 12 20 10 20 20 20 20 90 90 --- 1991 WXuexi Yuandi

20111 3730 1-5 19 52.6% 6.9 87% 6.6 50.9% , PE-- 100 4071 5000 ? 119 ( ) 94 Xuexi Yuandi

2011138 2011 18 2255 3 291226173 782 15327 599 819.6 96 3122 58 2794 3 226 173 399 18 6500 2 10 2011 2015 5 , 60% 2020 WXuexi Yuandi20111 39

CPI 2008 2008 20% 60%2008

Guancha Yu Sikao201114016% GDP 9-10%,CPI 3-4% M2 GDP GDP 9%CPI 6%GDP+CPI

Guancha Yu Sikao20111 411Guancha Yu Sikao23W

2011142

2008 8 2004 2008 78 3000 /3 7 3060 1600 10% 1/3 Guancha Yu Sikao

2008 2008 9 4.2% 8 10 10-12 -9.9%-24.5%-19.2%GDP 09 GDP 8.1% 64.7 556.5 4.5%11.3% 688 19.8% 34.1 599.6 22.4% GDP08 GDP 5.5% 30 4 8020100020111 43

12010 5 16 , 22010 3.88 61.6% 8470 294.5 88.03% 48% 3 7000 30% 70% 48%Guancha Yu SikaoW2011144 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , : , ; , ; , , : , , , , : : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , : , , ; , ,, , , Guancha Yu Sikao

20111 45:: , , , , , : , , , , , () : , , , () , ,, , , , , :,,() , : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , () : , , () : , , () , , , , , Guancha Yu Sikao , , , , , , , : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , W

2011146 , , , , , ,

1 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2 , Guancha Yu Sikao

, , 1860 (1866) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (1909) , , , , , , 319 , , , , , 20111 47Guancha Yu Sikao , , ? ,

1 , , , , , , , , , , , 19 60 , : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1908 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,, , , , , , , , , , , , 3 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2011148 , , , 10 000 8 000 ; , , 11. 2 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 4 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1924 , , , , 1929 , , , , W

Guancha Yu Sikao20111 492010

Yewu Jiaoliu

2011150

80% 2011 6 4414 10 2700 61.2% 10 451 10.2%2010 2010 78% 50 50 6000 1 1200 / , Yewu Jiaoliu

20111 51

78% 12% 4% 6% Yewu Jiaoliu W2011152

FC Yewu Jiaoliu

20111 53Yewu Jiaoliu

1

22011154

123 4

Yewu Jiaoliu

20111 55123 IPYewu Jiaoliu

4 567 W2011156

1993 2011 6 7819.62 IPO 812.87 2008 2011 6 5804.41 376.35 2011 6 225.90 1IPO2008 3 48.75 22008 327.60 32008 10 3 48.20 2009 12 22.21 2010 2 2011 6 33.40 42008 3177.20

1 2008 2011 6 19 74.23%23 Shichang Yanjiu

171.4 20111 57 17 225.90 79.02%2011 14.83%1-6 15 182.5 35.89%6 174.65 2 33.4

12008 2009 2009 11 2345678 32 A 1.6%9Shichang Yanjiu

20111582011 ST 7 2 2 3 3 ST 10

1234567891011W Shichang Yanjiu20111 59

, 2010 18639 9728 8900 2010 17.6%10

PEIPO IPO 80VC 2006 10 50 Shichang Yanjiu

2011160

1984 902009 77PE 156.25 2010 82 PE 6.25 2007 100 15 2011 2 2011 75 27 PE 200 200

Shichang Yanjiu

20111 61Shichang Yanjiu 50 1968 25% 49%19691.71 1975 0.01 1978 28% 1981 20% 1986 241 10 1 4 PE PE W

2011162

1988 5 20 20

2006 2 < 2006-2020 ( [2006]6 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )2008 42.3% 25.76%2009 13.7% 2005 5000 2010 3200 2600 IPO A 1 1 Shichang Yanjiu

20111 63Shichang Yanjiu2008-2009

33 9 1. 2010 4338.6 21.7% GDP 47.73% 693 19.2% 38.27% 2011 5 8 1 PE22. 6 2009 13.5 4.93 15.1 29.84 36.9 48 2011164123 3 1997 10 2 8 2009 2010 72% 2227 2 2

W

Shichang Yanjiu

CR170CR380CR5100CR1080CR1050CR105020111 65Shichang Yanjiu (E.charn un) (E.S.Mas.son) (JSBin ) ( SCP )

CRn HHI HKI EI Lorenz CurveGiniCoefficient

CRn HHIHKIEI CRn CRnCRn CRn N n 5 10CRn 1 N 1

2011166 1 2007 17336.96 2010 19686.13 4 13.55 2 2 CR5CR10 5 10 2007 CR10 CR10 50 2008 50 2 2007-2010 CRn 2 2007-2010

1 3 CR10 50 3 2007 2010 3 2007-2010 CRn

3 2007-2010

2 4 CR5 CR10 n 4 4 2007-2010 CRn Shichang Yanjiu

20111 67Shichang Yanjiu 4 2007-2010

5 CRn 52008 2008 5 10 CRn CRn 2010 5 2007-2010 CRn

5 2007-2010

1231232008 W

2011168Jianguanzhichuang 2011 8 17

20111 69 89 53

Jianguanzhichuang

20111707 1 7 1 2 5 130 90 90 90 90 W

Jianguanzhichuang

20111 717 6 , ( ) WJianguanzhichuang

20111722011 5 25 -26 WJianguanzhichuang20111 732011 5 18 Jianguanzhichuang20111742011 7 14 , :

W

W Gongsi Fengcai

20111 75 2007 2010 2009 IT 2010 11 15 IPO 22 1988 1994 10 15 6 30 2467 Gongsi Fengcai

20111762010 7 1 66.54 2011 2011 2009 35 20 2009 40 26 44.22 26 2010 4 440 14 353 2008 5522.78 1664.93 65.39%3,621.35 2010 1.52 2009 0.87 133% 10 ETF 2010 1 2010 12 31 1 8.71% 4.25% 1 30 2010 2011 3 2 2011 6 3 82931.6 2009 2010 IB2010 Gongsi Fengcai20111 77 4 2 12 2 23 70

IPO IPO / / 2 2011 1 PE 5 100 20 5 20 WGongsi Fengcai20111781998 12 2000 6 2010 367 360 170 3 10 2 1981 1998301983 1987 1990 1984 20 Gongsi Fengcai

20111 79 2002 6200 1.16 10 110%2006 2002 ,

1.5 9.6 2 1 2010 10 2004 , 2005 , , , 2006 , 2007 , , , 2008 , , , , 6200 , 2009 , , ,

2015 WGongsi Fengcai

2011180 , 2011 1 06 8.023QQ , 4,, , 51 , 2 , , , , , , , , , , , WAnli Fenxi20111 81 2009 9 7 9 29 1980 2007 11 IPO 2008 2008 IPO20089 600546 3 39.75% 39.75% 7 30% 21 3 4.5 7

Anli Fenxi20111821IPO2009 2010 2011 0.8 / 1.0 / 1.25 / 3 2 2008 39.75% 5.20 / 5.30 / 5.94 / 25 / 15032.93 4.5342008 12 19 A WAnli Fenxi

20111 83Sanjin Dadi

W

2011184

101 13 0300060351-72181730351-7218178guhl@csic gov.cn

101 13 030006 0351-7218173 0351-7218178