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Budget09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 22 November 2010. Carbon. Budget. 2009. GCP-Carbon Budget2009 Contributors. Peter E. Levy Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK Sam Levis National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USA Mark R. Lomas - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CarbonCarbon
20092009BudgetBudget
Budget09 released on 21 November 2010ppt version 22 November 2010
Karen Assmann University of Bergen, Norway
Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Oak Ridge, Tennessee USAGordon Bonan
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USALaurent Bopp
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
Erik BuitenhuisSchool of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Ken CaldeiraDepart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA
Josep G. CanadellGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra,
Australia Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
Thomas J. ConwayNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Steve DavisDepart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA
Scott C. DoneyWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Richard A. FeelyPacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA
Pru FosterQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, FranceQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Joe L. HacklerWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
Christoph HeinzeUniversity of Bergen, Norway
Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
Chris HuntingfordCentre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK
GCP-Carbon Budget2009 ContributorsPeter E. Levy
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UKSam Levis
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USAMark R. Lomas
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, UJoseph Majkut
AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Nicolas Metzl
LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France Corinne Le Quéré
School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Andrew LentonCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia
Ivan LimaWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Gregg MarlandCarbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Glen P. Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, NorwayMichael R. Raupach
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia
Stephen SitchSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
James T. RandersonDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California,
USA Guido R. van der Werf
Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Nicolas Viovy
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
F. Ian WoodwardDepartment of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Sönke ZaehleMax-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Ning ZengUniversity of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget
Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html
GCP-Carbon Budget2009
Units
• 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne
• 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tonnes
• 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
CO2 e
miss
ions
(Pg
C y-1
) CO2 em
issions (Pg CO2 y
-1)2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgCGrowth rate: -1.3%1990 level: +37%
2000-2008Growth rate: +3.2%
2010 (projected):Growth rate: >3%
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010
Time1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 0393
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000Ca
rbon
Em
issio
ns p
er y
ear
(C to
ns x
1,0
00,0
00)
China
USA
Japan
Russian Fed.India
07
2009
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples
Time
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010
1990 95 01 05 200997 99 03930
40
80
120
160UK
Denmark
Australia
Spain
Canada
Carb
on E
miss
ions
per
yea
r (C
tons
x 1
,000
,000
)
07
The Netherlands
2009
Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
CHINAUSA
INDIA
RUSSIAJA
PAN
GERMANYIRAN
SOUTH KOREA
CANADA
UNITED KINGDOM
MEXICO
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIAITALY
BRAZIL
AUSTRALIA
FRANCE (inl. M
onac
o)
POLAND
SPAIN0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tota
l CO
2 em
issio
ns
(x10
,000
PgC
y-1)
Per Capita Emissions
(tonnes C person
-1 y-1)
CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
CO2 e
miss
ions
(PgC
y-1)
Oil
Coal
Gas
Cement
4
3
2
1
01990 2000 2010
40%
36%
Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
92% of growth
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
China USIndia World
CO2 e
miss
ions
(Tg
C y-1
)
350
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010
Foss
il Fue
l Em
issio
n (Pg
Cy-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections
A1B Models AverageA1FI Models AverageA1T Models AverageA2 Models Average
B1 Models AverageB2 Models Average
ObservedProjected
Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.
From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).
Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)
Year 2004
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change (1960-2009)CO
2 em
issio
ns (P
gC y
-1)
Fossil fuel
Land use change
10
8
6
4
2
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010
CO2 e
miss
ions
(PgC
y-1)
1990s Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC
2000-2005Emissions: 1.3±0.7 PgC
2006-2010:Emissions: 0.9±0.7 PgC
CO2 em
issions (PgCO2 y
-1)
-400-200
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Tropical
Temperate
Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2009)
R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010
CO2 e
miss
ions
(TgC
y-1)
Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2009)
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Latin AmericaS & SE Asia
Tropical Africa
CO2 e
miss
ions
(Tg
C y-1
)
R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010
Fire Emissions from Deforestation ZonesFi
re E
miss
ions
from
de
fore
stat
ion
zone
s (T
g C
y-1)
Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3.1
Year
van der Werf et al. 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1997 99 01 2003 05 07 2009
AmericaAfricaAsiaPan-tropics
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2009: 1.9 ppm y-1
2009 1.622008 1.802007 2.142006 1.842005 2.392004 1.602003 2.192002 2.402001 1.892000 1.22
December 2009: 387.2 ppmSeptember 2010 (preliminary): 389.2 ppm39% above pre-industrial
Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1)
GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO2
Parts
Per
Milli
on (p
pm)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Nove
mbe
r 201
0
390
388
386
384
382
380
378
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: NOAA 2010, CDIAC 2010
Key Diagnostic of the Carbon CycleEvolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere
Total CO2 emissions
Atmosphere
CO2 P
artit
ioni
ng (P
gC y
-1)
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
10
8
6
4
2
Airb
orne
Fra
ctio
n
Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere
Airborne Fraction
Trend: 0.31 % y-1 (p=~0.9)
45%
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
40%
Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Land
sin
k (P
gCy-1
)
5 m
odel
s
Oce
an s
ink
(PgC
y-1)
4
mod
els
Time (y)
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
0
2
-2
-4
-6
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
0
2
-2
-4
-6
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
5
10
10
5
1850 1900 1950 2000
1.1±0.7
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
deforestation
CO2 f
lux
(PgC
y-1)
2000-2009(PgC)
5
10
10
5
1850 1900 1950 2000
7.7±0.5
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
CO2 f
lux
(PgC
y-1)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1.1±0.7
2000-2009(PgC)
5
10
10
5
1850 1900 1950 2000
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
CO2 f
lux
(PgC
y-1)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
2000-2009(PgC)
5
10
10
5
1850 1900 1950 2000
4.1±0.1
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
CO2 f
lux
(PgC
y-1)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
2000-2009(PgC)
5
10
10
5
1850 1900 1950 2000
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
ocean2.3±0.4
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
oceanSink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
CO2 f
lux
(PgC
y-1)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
(5 models)
4.1±0.1
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
2000-2009(PgC)
5
10
10
5
1850 1900 1950 2000
2000-2009(PgC)
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
(Residual)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
CO2 f
lux
(PgC
y-1)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
2.3±0.4(5 models)
4.1±0.1
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
2.4
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009)
1.1±0.7 PgC y-1
+7.7±0.5 PgC y-1
2.4 PgC y-1
27%Calculated as the residual of
all other flux components
4.1±0.1 PgC y-1
47%
26%2.3±0.4 PgC y-1
Average of 5 models
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
• Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870, http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html• Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107: 5687-5692.
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687• International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October 2010.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/• Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;
http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/• Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR,
Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html
• Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends 2009. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget
• Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html
• Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407. http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es072023k
• Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: 10288-10293. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/24/10288
• Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613. http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1601/2008/bg-5-1601-2008.html
• Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends
• van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16153-16230. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/16153/2010/acpd-10-16153-2010.html
References cited in this ppt
www.globalcarbonproject.org