CEIC Leading Indicator

CEIC Leading Indicator

Agenda

What is CEIC Leading Indicator

How Does the CEIC Leading Indicator Work?

How is the CEIC Leading Indicator Useful?

What Makes the CEIC Leading Indicator Different?

Methodology

What is CEIC Leading Indicator?

Key Highlights

CEIC Proprietary Dataset

Designed to Predict the Economic Activity

Aggregated Leading Indicator

Consists of “Hard Data” Economic Indicators

What is CEIC Leading Indicator?Product Deliverables

Datasets of proprietary series for 60 countries

Methodology and country specific metadata

Interactive charts and quick insights

Regular analytical materials and newsletters

How Does the CEIC Leading Indicator Work?

How Does the CEIC Leading Indicator Work?

How is the CEIC Leading Indicator Useful?

Key Benefits

Predicts the economic activity

Released with shorter delay

Available in monthly frequency

Cross country comparable data

Predicts the Economic Activity

3-Month Interest Rate

Exchange Rate

Palm Oil Price

Equity Market Index

Predicts the Economic Activity

Released with Shorter Delay

Malaysia: Key Economic Indicators

Indicator198

8198

9199

0199

1199

21993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

15-Jan

15-Feb

15-Mar

15-Apr

15-May

CEIC Leading Indicator                                                              18-

Jun

DOS Leading Index                                                            24-

Jun  

DOS Diffusion Leading Index

                                                            24-Jun  

Employment                                                            25-

Jun  

Gross Domestic Product                                                         

15-May

   

Industrial Production Index

                                                            11-Jul  

Cross Country Comparable Data

Cross Country Comparable Data

What Makes the CEIC Leading Indicator Different?

Coverage in emerging and frontier markets

Based on actual “hard” economic data

Reflects the output gap

Covers all aspects of the economy

Country Coverage

Asia

Australia

Bangladesh

Brunei

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Laos

BRIICS

Macau

Malaysia

Nepal

New Zealand

Pakistan

ASEAN

Singapore

Philippines

Sri Lanka

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

MethodologyProduction Process

• Create aggregated series for the business cycleBusiness Cycle Reference Series

• Detect the business cycle turning points and create binary dummy variable for recession and expansion periods

Business Cycle Turning Points

• Selecting the individual series to be included in the composite indicator

Component Series Selection

• Generate the final series as a weighted average of the individual components

Aggregation

MethodologyComponent Series

United States

Weekly Hours, Overtime

Yield Curve

Jobless Claims

Consumer Confidence Index

Purchasing Managers Index

S&P 500

Malaysia

FTSE Bursa Composite Index

Exchange Rate against USD

Motor Vehicle Sales

Interbank Rate, 3-Month

Palm Oil Spot Price

Indonesia

Cement Consumption

Jakarta Composite Index

Exchange Rate against USD

Motor Vehicle Sales

Exports Value, Non-Oil

Q&A