AUGUST 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 8 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2013 8

Financial system reform?Financial system reform?

金融变革金融变革股权投资大浪淘沙股权投资大浪淘沙

MICE Now: MICE Now: CHENGDU IN BLOOMCHENGDU IN BLOOM

抑制产能过剩抑制产能过剩

Executive Editor Liu Chen Deputy Executive Editor Philip Liu Editor-at-large Graham Earnshaw Associate Editors Brenda Yang, Deng Dan

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EDITOR’S NOTE | 编者的话

AUGUST 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 8 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2013 8

Financial system reform?MICE Now: CHENGDU IN BLOOM

金融体制改革迫在眉睫，近期各种政策密集出台，彰显决策层

“更好地发挥市场机制作用，激发市场和经济的内生活力，促

进国民经济持续健康发展，打造中国经济升级版”的思路。

改革的目的是打破垄断，加快市场化进程。因此，无论是利率市

场化还是金融脱媒，都对享受有市场垄断之利的国有商业银行构成巨大

的挑战。完全竞争时代优胜劣汰是寻常之事。为生存与发展，原招行行

长马蔚华呼吁商业银行必须厉行变革与创新。

经济学家巴曙松指出，金融体系变革的大背景，就是中国的经济

结构正在嬗变，宏观经济和金融政策的决策逻辑也在与时俱进。目前对

未来一段时期的经济走势、经济政策有很多争议，但也逐步形成一些共

识，其中一个很重要共识就是经济增长正处于从高速向中速的转换期。

《增长的极限》敲响了警钟。作者认为，增长并不必然导致崩

溃，但如果需求的扩张超出了地球资源所能维持的水平时，前景也就不

容乐观。而要实现可持续发展，必须要有更高的尊重、关切和分享。

“民惟邦本，本固邦宁。”（《尚书》）改革应当以民生为重，

而关键在于塑造公平、公正和自由竞争的环境。

Caching people off-guard, be they experts, journalists or the

average person in the street, has become a hallmark of Chi-

nese policymakers. This was demonstrated on July 19 when the

People’s Bank of China suddenly loosened control on lending

rates for banks. One day there was a lending floor, and the next

day it was gone. The idea behind the move is a nice one: Try and

get more funds to small and medium enterprises, which struggle

for capital in the state-dominated credit system, and stimulate

activity in a key economic sector that is also a big job creator. But

upon closer inspection it appears that it might remain just a fancy

idea unless further actions are taken. Experts say the reform was

mostly symbolic and that no progress will truly happen unless the

cap on deposit rates is also removed. Here’s hoping there might

be another surprise in store.

INSIDECOVER STORY BROCADE CITY SHOW

MARKET SURVEY HOW TO WIN THE HEARTS OF CHINESE

ASIA FOCUS THE ENCLAVE OF CHARM AND GAMBLING

Chengdu’s MICE industry is putting the city on the world map

Chengdu in bloom

AUGUST 2013

August 201304

目录 CONTENT

8 生活中的经济学

12

16 结构变化 中速增长

21 增长的极限

27 新变局

34 商业银行面临大考

38 股权投资大浪淘沙

15

18

The House View

10 China’s rebalancing act

Month in Review

14 News briefs

Column

18 Food scares and consumers

20 Sino-US trade talks

24 Boosting Chinese productivity

Cover story

30 Liberalized lending

36 Shanghai’s free trade zone

37 The Lujiazui forum

41 China’s reform school

26

8

12

August 2013 05

52

58

48 提升城市 打造地标

44 抑制产能过剩

54 商业地产吸金有方

62 苏洵为什么不经商

64 向钱看

66 罂粟花荚

Co-sponsored article

50 The Foshan Lanshi Project

Q&A

46 Nobel laureate Michael Spence

51 Food safety expert Chen Junshi

Report

57 China’s export slump

58 EU-China trade

60 Traditional Chinese medicine

Looking at China

65 Taxis and social morality

Travel journal

68 A brush with the poppy

35

44

Cover storyFinancial system reform?30China’s central bank acts abruptly, and not for the fi rst time

目录 CONTENT

August 201306

新观察

生活中的经济学用经济学的思维方式来观察生活中的点点滴滴文 | 艺博

人生处处都是经济学。不管承认与

否，生活本身就是经济学。那种大

多数人都认为的，“只要不涉及商品、价

格和市场，那么人的行为和选择，就只与

亲情、道德和文化相关，而不受任何经济

规律约束”的陈旧理念，要随着加里·贝

克尔和吉蒂·贝克尔《生活中的经济学》

的诞生而消亡。那些自认为从未踏入市场

的人，其实一直就在市场之中。

对于书中所提到的税收、利益集团、

股市、贸易和垄断等明显与经济相关的问

题略去不提，单就人力资本和学校教育这

两个与我们生活息息相关的“非经济”问

题，也被作者经济化了。

一直以来我们都认同社会的发展需要

人力资本的提升，也就是以教育为主的投

资。因为根据西方发达国家的经验，知识

广博者应该得到丰厚的报偿。然而许多国

家现行的教育政策却是有利于富家子弟。

因为他们比穷人的孩子更有可能获取到优

质的教育资源，这是一种不当的收入再分

配方式。一方面读大学的人越来越多，只

是面临贬值的趋势；另一方面高中辍学者

应接受完整的职业训练，分流高知人群的

数量和合理分布理论研究和实际应用的从

业人数。作者认为用纳税人的钱来补贴大

学生，而这些纳税人的大多数收入都赶不

上典型的受过大学教育的人。这种教育制

度的缺陷长期存在，导致家长们在择校等

问题上失去了话语权。作者提出的解决方

案是发放教育券来解决人力资本和学校教

育的不公平现象。

家庭一直以来都是整个社会的基础，

但是近几十年来家庭的稳定性和结构发生

了巨大变化。例如富裕国家的生育率大幅

下降；未婚生育现象快速增加；离婚率飙

升；老年人在社会养老金制度下独立生活

等。对于与家庭相关的各种经济问题都与

社会制度有关，一个国家越是富裕其福利

制度就越是完善，但是长期依靠社会福利

会养成一种“依赖心理”，使人们习惯于

接受政府救济。作者的建议是社会福利制

度的改革应该以孩子的幸福为根本。并且

对现行制度（协议离婚制度）在某种程度

上鼓励夫妻离婚，进而剥夺了儿童经常和

父亲接触的权力等现象进行了抨击。婚后

女性参加工作导致孩子和母亲共处时间减

少，由此带来的孩子教育问题的过大投入

也应该适可而止。老年人的本质问题就是

老年劳动力就业困难，当今社会在一定程

度上轻视了老年员工的价值，其结果造成

老年人对养老保险制度的过度依赖，从而

给经济发展带来负担。

美国社会对黑人和妇女的歧视由来

已久，犯罪和上瘾问题已经成为由此带来

的恶果。抢劫等恶性犯罪的迅速增多并不

是现代生活不可避免的趋势，作者认为只

要政府能够制定适当的政策，是可以遏制

这种犯罪行为的。比如严惩犯罪者，提高

破案率，还有更重要的是给劳动技能不强

的人提供更好的就业机会。三管齐下一定

能够很好地解决犯罪率问题。我们不能从

道德的高度对赌博等行为征收更高的“道

德”税。作者认为，这样做其实是对穷人

的无耻盘剥。所以赌博合法化势在必行，

作者继而对由此可能要付出的社会代价和

社会压力进行了探讨。其结果是，虽然这

样做不能解决所有问题，但是在所有可行

的解决犯罪和上瘾问题的方案里是 好

的。这样的观点确实令人耳目一新。

与政府集权相比，自由市场更有优

势。监管的真实目的究竟是什么？结论

是：大多数政府机构反倒会被受管辖的企

业“俘获”，从而转变成了牺牲公共利益

的监管。作为芝加哥学派的代表人物，加

里·贝克尔的很多观点和弗里德曼相似，

都主张小政府，这是因为经济有时候比政

治更有效。

如今家庭的稳定性和结构发生了巨大的变化

August 201308

THE HOUSE VIE W

China’s pro-reform lobby

sounds increasingly like nag-

ging doctors urging their

reluctant patient to take its medicine.

The plea: Rebalance, rebalance, rebal-

ance.

The country’s leadership agrees that

this is the primary goal of economic

reform but has done little to accom-

plish it so far. Looking deeper into sec-

ond-quarter GDP figures, consump-

tion contributed 2.5 percentage points

to growth while investment accounted

for 5.9 percentage points of growth,

according to research firm Capital Eco-

nomics.

Consumption had beaten invest-

ment in the first quarter, driving 4.3

percentage points of GDP growth com-

pared to investment’s 2.3 points.

It’s important to note that even in

quarters when consumption passes

up investment, as has happened sev-

eral times in the past, consumption

often isn’t actually growing faster. The

growth rate of both is actually slowing

– investment is just slowing more rap-

idly. Despite its larger share of growth,

a slowdown in consumption is backed

up by slowing retail sales growth in the

first quarter, which Goldman Sachs Gao

Hua pointed out in a May note.

However, consumption versus

investment isn’t the only part of the

rebalancing debate. Often in the same

breath, those in favor of reform will

push the idea of promoting services

over industry in tandem with rebalanc-

ing toward consumption.

That’s an area where China has done

far better. As The Economist pointed

out in April, services were poised to

imminently pass up industry in terms of

contribution to GDP. In the first quar-

ter, services contributed to 44.99% of

GDP while industry made up 45.02%,

with the rest accounted for by agricul-

ture.

But this shouldn’t earn the govern-

ment much praise. The size of the serv-

ice sector still lags developed countries

where it often contributes 55-60% of

GDP.

The government should certainly be

seeking to reach that higher propor-

tion of services. But applying this metric

to the country’s rebalancing is highly

problematic as China’s service sector

is far different than that of the US or

Europe.

An important component of rebal-

ancing is wresting control of the econo-

my away from major state-owned firms.

These firms have been responsible for

much of the investment and industrial

growth in the country, the economic

model that is now losing momentum.

It’s often overlooked, however, that

SOEs also dominate services. The state

still controls swathes of the service

economy including telecom services,

health care and education, Societe Gen-

erale China economist Yao Wei pointed

out in an interview with China Eco-

nomic Review in May.

In addition to recognizing the types

of companies behind the growth, the

segments of the service sector driving its

expansion must be considered.

Rebalancing also seeks to lessen the

economy’s dependence on real estate,

as the government fears a bubble. But

real estate services are counted as part

of the tertiary sector, an example of why

additional scrutiny must be applied

when appraising services versus indus-

try. Services may grow, but it has to be

in the right areas that don’t further con-

tribute to a lopsided economy.

These factors indicate that weighing

services versus industry is the wrong

measure for gauging Beijing’s success in

rebalancing.

Conflating service sector growth

with a more sustainable, balanced econ-

omy appears misguided – only a par-

tial indication that reform could be on

track. When it comes to rebalancing,

consumption is still king.

Don’t confuse service-sector growth with real rebalancing

China’s rebalancing act

August 201310

聚焦

综合

GDP增速放缓国家统计局数据显示，上半年GDP高达

24.8万亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增

长7.6%。国际货币基金组织（IMF）在

新报告中将今年中国经济增速预期下调

至7.75%。IMF首席经济学家布兰查德表

示，中国经济增长放缓的程度可能会比预

期更为严重，但不会“硬着陆”，也即不

会急剧放缓。

中国对美开放投资准入权中美投资协定谈判在第五轮中美战略经济

对话中取得突破性进展。中方同意以准入

前国民待遇和负面清单为基础与美方进行

投资协定实质性谈判。 终完成谈判还需

一两年。商务部新闻发言人表示，截至今

年5月底，美国在华累计直接投资超过700

亿美元，中国对美累计直接投资接近200

亿美元。高水平投资协定对中美双方投资

者都有利。

上海建自由贸易试验区国务院批准在上海外高桥保税区等4个海关

特殊监管区域内建设中国（上海）自由贸

易试验区。其中服务业和金融领域的开放

被认为是 为重要的尝试，涉及金融方面

包括利率市场化、汇率自由汇兑、金融业

的对外开放、产品创新等，还有一些离岸

业务。

薄熙来三宗罪遭公诉检察院7月25日以薄熙来涉嫌受贿、贪

污、滥用职权犯罪向济南市中级人民法院

提起公诉。起诉书指控其，“利用职务上

的便利，为他人谋取利益，非法收受他人

财物，数额特别巨大；贪污公款，数额巨

大；滥用职权，致使国家和人民利益遭受

重大损失，情节特别严重。”

银行业总负债131.9万亿元银监会数据显示，6月末银行业金融机构

总资产141.34万亿元，比上年同期增加

13.5%；总负债131.9万亿元，比上年同

期增13.2%。

632米上海中心8月将封顶2008年11月开工建设的上海中心大厦将于

今年8月封顶，位于陆家嘴的大厦主体建筑

结构高度为580米，总高度632米。大厦和

超五星豪华酒店（第84层至110层）将在

2014年底或2015年初建成运营。

第二季度外储增幅减缓央行数据显示，截至6月末外储余额3.5万

亿美元，再创历史新高。但第二季度外储

增幅明显放缓。分析人士指出，国际资本

流入减缓以及汇率折算因素可能是第二季

度外储增幅减缓的主要原因。

人民币对美元汇率升值34%2005年7月启动的汇率机制改革已走过8

年，人民币对美元名义汇率升值33%，实

际有效汇率升值34%。现在还坚持认为人

民币汇率被严重低估的人在减少，而认为

汇率正接近均衡水平的人在增加。

近9成家庭拥有产权房北京大学中国社会科学调查中心组织调研

的报告称，全国家庭平均住房面积为100

平米，人均30平米。近9成家庭全部或部

分拥有现住房的产权，超过10%的家庭有

两套及以上住房。

公司与市场

600万小微企业免征两税国务院常务会议决定，从8月1日起，将对

小微企业中月销售额不超过2万元的增值税

小规模纳税人和营业税纳税人，暂免征收

增值税和营业税。据称，这将为超过600

万户小微企业带来实惠，直接关系几千万

人的就业和收入。

今年A股市场最大融资京东方A（000725）发布融资计划公告，

宣布募资不超过460亿元的非公开增发方

案，拟投向多项新型显示面板项目，包括

在合肥新规划的触摸屏生产线等，以对接

全球触摸屏的巨大市场需求。这是今年A

股市场的 大融资项目。

葛兰素史克商业贿赂受调查中国公安部于7月11日对英国 大制药商葛

兰素史克(GSK)高管涉嫌严重商业贿赂和

涉税犯罪进行立案调查，该公司被指控在

中国通过中介旅行社向医生和官员行贿30

632米高的上海中心大厦8月将封顶

August 201312

亿元。民意调查显示，80%以上中国网民

相信商业贿赂行为推高了药价。随着事件

发酵，多家跨国制药企业也将受到调查。

争取2000亿社会资本投铁路国务院常务会议要求，吸引社会资本投

入，设立铁路发展基金。要向地方和社会

资本开放城际铁路、市域(郊)铁路、资源开

发性铁路等的所有权和经营权。争取2014

和2015年社会资本投资铁路2000亿元。

国债期货重启动停顿18年后，国务院于今年6月批准国债

期货交易。国债期货合约标的为面额为

100万元人民币，票面利率为3%的5年期

名义标准国债， 快有望8月中旬或9月上

市。1992年12月上海证券交易所 先开放

国债期货交易，后因“327国债事件”，

中国证监会于1995年5月17日下午决定暂

停国债期货交易。

调查与趋势

颠覆传统商业模式广东巨星影业有限公司总裁邓建国表

示，中国俱乐部新经济发展联盟的创立，

将完全颠覆传统的金融业商业模式，市场

非常巨大，前景也非常广阔。“联合与未

来”中国俱乐部新经济发展联盟成立大会

暨帕拉迪俱乐部加盟仪式于近日在上海举

行。与此同时，由CCTV创业天使、帕拉

迪俱乐部、中国俱乐部新经济发展联盟联

合主办了相关论坛。

帕拉迪俱乐部CEO韩卫东透露，帕

拉迪集团的目标是3年内在中国100个城市

里创新服务链，打造智慧服务性链接，集

成全社会创新创业相关的服务资源和服务

能力，与超过千家机构合作，让那些既能

在研发公共服务平台获得创新创业过程中

所需的帮助与支持，也能找到自己为社会

和其他群体提供创新服务的空间和机会，

使“联合与未来”的理念在创新活动中得

以充分体现。 终帕拉迪会在3年之内实现

每年度超过1000亿的服务，覆盖各行业和

主要技术领域，以强大的实力立足上海金

融中心乃至国际金融中心，创建国际化联

盟，走向全球。

房地产金融投资家俱乐部执行合伙

人闫宗成表示，全球整合企业时代已经来

临，资源整合可以说是企业互利共赢的

有效途径。现在的中国，已由过去的创业

时代变成整合时代。资源整合天下赢，通

过搭建资源整合的平台，调整企业战略，

优化资源配置。强强联合往往比孤军奋战

更胜券在握。资源定天下，创造高效益。

只有跨界才能分享，这种理解正是新经济

的推动舞台，是共同联合起来才有的未

来。帕拉迪集团总裁陈若彤表示，“帕拉

迪”是英文天堂Paradise音译，但并不是

乌托邦，而是实实在在帮助更多有钱人或

有能力的人快速实现财富人生。会找出

适合的投资策略，让所有的年轻人都能成

为投资人。

“创新与未来”亚太金融创新论坛也

在此前一天举行。论坛探讨金融创新在亚

太地区的发展状况、金融创新与实体企业

投融资发展规律等众多议题，充分发挥金

融资本和项目间的融合与优势互补，为创

业家和投资家搭建起国际化的对话与合作

平台。贵州茅台集团天朝上品酒业有限公

司董事长黄永毅就创新金融模式与酒业的

发展提出了自己的看法。支点投资董事长

潘建臣提出，金融必须服务于实体，这是

金融的本质。东方汇富副总裁周向前则强

调了“跨界整合”对于金融业的重要性。

下半年房地产或继续回暖诺亚财富发布今年下半年房地产策略

报告，核心观点如下：

相对于2012年和2013年上半年，下

半年流动性将维持相对稳健的状态，在较

为宽松的政策环境和中性资金面下，下半

年房地产市场继续回暖的可能性较大。房

地产企业资金紧张暂时缓解，开发投资信

心微弱恢复

区域基本面分化使得国五条无法“一

刀切”，将调控权下放至地方政府。从陆

续公布的地方细则来看，地方落实动力较

低。由于不同城市的人口增长率、人均

GDP各异，区域分化现象明显并将持续，

一线与二线城市中的重点城市受强劲需求

的支撑，发展潜力较大，三四线城市受制

于经济、人口、资源等因素，房地产市场

发展受到一定限制。且诺亚认为，区域经

济时差造成区域地产市场分化持续.因此房

地产调控政策将区别化调控，因时、因地

制宜。

在政策选择上，限贷限购暂时不会

取消，差异化调控政策成为趋势，长效调

控机制将逐步建立。从人均收入和人口来

看，房地产市场并不会随着经济增速的放

缓快速走向衰退。新的均衡经济增速下，

人均收入、城镇化仍然有提升空间，人口

年龄结构红利虽然减少，但中期仍然会支

撑房地产行业发展。目前央行有意于维持

人民币相对强势的地位、国内资本项目尚

未完全放开、中国相对较快的经济增速和

较高的利差等因素综合作用，诺亚财富研

究部判断美国退出QE不会导致热钱大量、

快速地从中国流出，房地产行业泡沫破灭

的可能性较小。

住宅地产：不同城市发展潜力分化，

一二线城市上涨潜力 大；商业地产：传

统商铺投资价值向下，看好体验类商业地

产。

（本栏目内容根据公开信息整理）

August 2013 13

MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFS

GSK: Execs seem to have broken Chinese lawPharma multinational GlaxoSmithKline conceded in a state-

ment that some of its executives in China may have broken

the law, Reuters reported. GSK said that certain senior exec-

utives had acted outside of its processes and that GSK had

“zero tolerance” for such practices. The company pledged

to reform its local business model to lower the cost of drugs,

part of a bid to limit the damage to its reputation and pros-

pects in the fast-growing market. Global drug makers Sanofi,

Novartis, Merck and Roche all used the services of a travel

agency linked to the scandal, although there is no allegation

of wrongdoing against them.

Qihoo 360 in merger talks with SohuChinese internet firm Qihoo 360 Technology is in talks to

acquire Sohu.com’s Sogou search engine, The Wall Street

Journal reported. Alex Xu, finance chief of Qihoo 360, con-

firmed the company was in talks to purchase Sohu’s search

business, but the two sides have yet to discuss a price. Cur-

rently Sogou is China’s third-largest search engine with 9%

of Chinese search traffic, according to research firm CNZZ.

Qihoo accounts for 15%, while Baidu leads the market by far

with 69%. The Qihoo-Sohu deal would pose a challenge to

Baidu’s dominant position in the search engine market.

China cancels uranium plant on protestsThe government of Jiangmen, a city in China’s Guangdong

province, released an official written pledge to scrap the

US$6 billion (RMB37 billion) uranium processing plant

after residents protesting the project demanded confirma-

tion of its cancellation, South China Morning Post reported.

Appearances and verbal reassurances by Municipal Party

Secretary Liu Hai and Mayor Peng Guomei failed to satisfy

the protestors, who dispersed only after Vice-Mayor Huang

Yue-sheng publicly read aloud the written statement. This is

the latest of several environmentally driven protests result-

ing in canceled projects, highlighting a credibility problem

for local government officials on industrialization issues.

Beijing suspends for-profit student toursBeijing’s primary and secondary schools were ordered by

the city’s municipal education authorities to suspend any

overseas study tours through for-profit groups after the

deaths of three Chinese students in an Asiana Airlines plane

crash in the US, South China Morning Post reported. Beijing

Municipal Commission of Education stipulated that schools

should not allow junior pupils at primary schools to join any

international exchange programs. For higher-grade students

in primary schools and those from secondary schools, all

such overseas trips should be approved by district education

authorities at least six months in advance.

China’s domestic consumption faltersFigures from China’s statistics bureau showed a decline in

urban household disposable income growth and domestic

consumption’s share of China’s economic growth, The Wall

Street Journal reported. In the first half of 2013, disposable

income growth for Chinese urban families slowed to 6.5%,

down from 9.7% a year earlier and lagging behind the eco-

nomic growth rate of 7.5%. The weak consumption num-

bers seem to indicate that the central government’s push to

recalibrate the economy away from investment spending

and toward domestic consumption is losing steam.

China halts new government buildingsChina announced a halt to the construction of government

buildings until 2018 to save funds and appease a public

unhappy about wasteful and corrupt projects, The New

York Times reported. Local authorities are also banned from

refurbishing government buildings in the name of urban

planning, erecting new hotels or training centers and giving

officials multiple offices. The new directive appears to be a

continuation of Communist Party chief Xi Jinping’s anti-

corruption campaign that has to date included a clampdown

on lavish spending on gifts and entertainment. Officials

must report on the implementation of the directive by Sep-

tember 30.

August 201314

China’s telecoms to boost 4G network spendingChina’s three telecommunications network operators are

primed to increase spending on wireless infrastructure

after Beijing announced that it would award 4G mobile

licenses in the fourth quarter, South China Morning Post

reported. China Unicom, China Telecom and China Mobile

are predicted to spend US$11.2 billion next year on wireless

infrastructure, an increase from this year’s US$10 billion,

according to a report by market research firm IHS. The State

Council’s announcement said the government would has-

ten plans to upgrade the nation’s telecommunications and

internet infrastructure as the mainland’s 4G subscribers are

expected to reach 439 million by 2017.

China slaps duties on US, S. Korea solar materialsChina issued preliminary anti-dumping duties on solar-

grade polysilicon imports from the US and South Korea,

products widely used in the production of solar panels,

Reuters reported. The decision from China’s Commerce

Ministry levies duties of 53.3-57% on US polysilicon and

2.4-48.7% on South Korean exports.

IMF says China needs renewed economic reformsThe IMF said in a report that China should initiate another

round of effective economic reforms to sustain its growth, as

domestic risks to the economy grow, Reuters reported. The

IMF has not changed its latest forecast for 2013 growth in

China of 7.75%, though it noted downside risks to the forecast.

The body also suggested prioritizing broader credit growth and

financial risks prevention in the near term as China’s consump-

tion driving measures turned out to be unproductive.

August 2013 15

结构变化 中速增长中国经济增长正处于从高速向中速的转换期文 | 巴曙松 经济学家

专栏

当前金融体系变化背

后的大环境，就是

中国的结构正在变化，宏

观经济和金融政策的决策

逻辑也在发生变化。

变 化 分 两 个 层 面 ，

一个是结构性变化，另一

个是周期性政策，就是有

哪些新的环境。目前对未

来一段时期的经济走势、

经济政策有很多争议，但是在争议中开始

逐步形成一些共识，其中一个很重要共识

就是中国经济增长正处于从高速向中速的

转换期。这个转换期既然难以避免，当经

济回落，只要不威胁到就业，不影响到系

统性的金融风险，就不应该施加人为的刺

激，充其量采取一些稳定措施，让它稳定

在可持续的中速增长上。这就是对目前经

济增速处于转换期的判断。

20世纪以来，除了美国、英国，绝

大多数跨入高收入行列的国家和地区，

都经历了由经济高增长向低增长的自然减

速阶段。1945年以后的德国、日本、韩

国以及一些追赶型经济体的发展都经历了

20至30年的经济高速增长，人均收入达

到11000国际元（在特定时间与美元有相

同购买力的假设通货单位—编者注），

随后进入增速的下降通道，下降幅度达

30%～40%。NBER（美国国家经济研究

局）的研究成果显示，全球有接近30个国

家在人均GDP达到16740美元（以2005

年不变价格计算）时，高增长时代趋于

终结，平均GDP增长率由高增长时期的

5.6%下降到2.1%。这种转换也是历史对

照，需要客观看待。

增速回落根据国务院发展研究中心估算，中

国人均收入在2010年已达8000国际元，

到2012年已经超过9000国际元，2013年

接近10000国际元，已经非常接近历史上

其他高收入发达国家的经济增长拐点。用

这个标准来衡量，中国将会在2013年至

2015年进入减速阶段。

长三角、珠三角这些原来比较发达的

地区，其实在2007年前后已经开始提前

进入减速阶段。看一下2007、2008年前

后全国经济增长速度，改革开放以来处于

领先地位的珠三角、长三角基本上排在后

面。刚开始有些城市和地区还不习惯，这

也是一个现实。基础设施建很完备了，已

经过了高速投资的阶段，所以在转换期有

很多重要的特点。

第一个就是基础设施在总投资中的比

重在持续下降，靠基础设施刺激经济增长

的效果在递减。

第二个是东南沿海这些传统的发达地

区，我认为还是中国经济 重要的地区，

但是实际增长速度开始持续低于全国的平

均水平。从上述逻辑来看，这些省市人均

收入水平已经达到或者超过11000国际

元，这也说明增速回落的历史规律，目前

从分区域来看还是有效的。 近对地方融

资平台，包括房地产市场的担忧，很大程

度上反映的就是对这些领域中长期投资回

报潜力的担忧。

中速增长经济结构出现了大的变化，不需要那

么高的投资，所以即便在目前这样增长疲

弱的阶段，就业压力不大，还有很多企业

招工难。真正的底线下限是就业。要让大

家接受中速增长阶段这一点很不容易。

我参加了李总理就任之后的座谈会，

他说 近这几年希望大家跟踪研究，经济

波动出现了一个新特点，非常短期化，为

什么？我想有很多解释，与我们各方主体

尝试接受中速增长这个逻辑有关系。我更

愿意看成经济主体开始尝试从高速增长进

入中速增长阶段，一定要人为的刺激，只

会导致资产泡沫。

看一下日本从1967年到1992年各种

要素的增长率，TFP（全要素生产率）的

下滑是经济迈向中速增长的主要原因。这

也是我们所做的一个测算，就是在资本的

存量、劳动力增长、人力资本和TFP因素

里，TFP对GDP增长率放缓的直接贡献度

为85%。

当一个国家的经济从农业经济进入工

业化的转化阶段，劳动力被配置到劳动生

产率更高的工业部门，这时TFP处于加速

生长的阶段。当一个国家处于从工业向服

务业发展的阶段，会导致社会生产率增速

的回落，这是一个大的规律。如果在这个

时期服务业还有管制、审批，政府还过度

介入，效率降低就更加显著。

现在正处于工业向服务业的转换时

期，今年将是中国第三产业首次超过第二

产业，成为经济第一增长动力的年份。现

在各方都开始尝试接受中速增长的现实，

近几年可能还是增长阶段的转换期，潜

在生产率估计还在7%至8%左右，之后就

会稳定下来。我的理解就是要守底线。要

接受经济增长回落，但是在回落的时候不

能失去增速。所以，目前的政策是防止推

高，但是会维持相对平稳的增长环境，这

就是结构方面开始在中速增长。

盈利下滑周期方面就是短期性波动有一些新的

特点。从2012年以来关于中国经济复苏持

续性的争论一直存在，特别是今年一季度

GDP增速再次回落，这种担忧有所加大。

从4、5月份各项经济数据的表现来看，第

August 201316

巴曙松

二季度GDP的增速仍将继续回落，预计二

季度GDP将进一步降至7.5%。PPI已经连

续15个月负增长，这也显示出中国实体经

济在供给层面的疲弱和投资需求的不足。

反过来，供给层面的疲弱也会通过对居民

收入的负面影响来间接影响消费需求。

看6月份的领先指标。官方PMI的

50.1是年内 低，其中制造业PMI的5个分

类指数普遍回落。6月汇丰PMI为48.2，

连续第二个月低于50。汇丰的分项指数显

示，产出指数自去年10月以来首次出现收

缩，显示需求疲软，还在往下走。不少人

认为，PMI继续的回落表明中国制造业承

受着订单下降与存货增加双重的压力。而

近期银行间市场的流动性的问题，也有可

能降低表外业务的增长。

我也认为，央行尝试用利率这种价格

信号来给市场传递“业务要转型、融资渠

道要转型”的信息，可能会导致一些中小

型企业的融资条件恶化。由于推出刺激政

策的可能性不大，当前增长放缓的态势将

在未来几个月延续。

过去10多个月社会融资总量虽然增长

很快，但是普遍的看法是没有进入实体，

反映的是实体经济的信心不足和盈利能力

的下降。

效率降低我一直在思考，要促使金融资源进

入实体经济，谁先谁后？如果倒逼金融资

源进入一些低回报、困难很大的企业，

由于实体经济的信心不足、下降，汇率

的升值，会带来货币流通速度的下降。货

币流通速度怎么来提升？第二是因为各种

套利、利率的管制导致从不同渠道拿到的

资金成本差异非常大，这种利率的管制容

易导致社会总额的重复计算。我的看法

是，社会融资不是回到原来的管制体制，

通过摧毁市场化的融资渠道来强化管制。

这回不去，只有一个方向，利率市场化，

进一步往前推，才能使数据更加真实地反

映实体经济的金融需求。第三就是一些企

业，由于现金流的问题需要借新还旧，使

社会融资规模对实体经济的净拉动作用被

高估。

从数据上看，今年前几个月，为什

么融资规模的高速增长没有传导到实体经

济？有人认为金融刺激经济的效率越来越

低。今年前几个月，社会融资总量同比增

长速度超过60%，但是固定资产到位资

金的同比增长率只有21%，投资增速也

处于下降的过程。另外，通过对比也可以

发现，尽管社会融资规模的存量同比明显

增长，但是2400家A股非金融上市企业

（包括地产）总负债的同比增长率从去年

6月的16.9%下降到今年3月份的15.9%。

企业都在收缩债务，那么多的社会融资去

哪儿了？2200家A股非金融、非地产类上

市企业的总负债同比增长率从去年6月的

16%下降到今年3月份的14.3%，这说明

企业仍处于去杠杆周期中。统计局公布的

规模以上工业企业的总负债同比增长也从

去年6月份的14.6%降到了今年3月份的

13.4%。

除了社会融资规模总量以外，实际的

利率我觉得更能反映企业感受到金融的松

紧程度。目前货币条件是一个紧平衡的状

况。从数据上看，实际利率和实际汇率水

平都远远高于过去十年平均水平。

（巴曙松现任国务院发展研究中心金

融研究所副所长、中国银行业协会首席经

济学家、中国宏观经济学会副秘书长，还

担任商务部经贸政策咨询委员会委员，中

国证监会并购重组专家委员会委员等。本

文根据他在清科集团第十三届中国股权中

期论坛上的演讲整理）

宏观经济和金融政策的决策在改变

August 2013 17

Domestic fi rms shouldn’t wait for Beijing to act on food safety

Food scares and consumers

Rat meat passed

o f f a s l a m b

meat, dead pigs

dumped in the Huang-

pu river, milk tainted

with melamine and rice

contaminated with cad-

mium – living in China,

it sometimes seems like

our food comes from

the infamous factories

of Upton Sinclair’s The

Jungle. In the eyes of

many Chinese consum-

ers, any food safety vio-

lation that can happen

already has. It’s just a

matter of whether it has

been discovered or not.

Historically, increased

food safety usually comes from eco-

nomic development, better-informed

consumers, stricter manufacturing

standards and increased transparency.

But even in the UK, the recent discov-

ery of horse meat in what were sup-

posedly beef products underlines the

fact that food safety issues do occur in

more developed countries.

The situation in China, however,

seems dire. A 2012 survey by market

research firm Ipsos, in conjunction

with China Business News, showed

that more than 75% of respondents

are concerned about the quality of eve-

rything from raw meat and seafood

to grains and oil to dairy products, or

in other words, nearly everything in a

typical food pyramid.

This has reduced consumer con-

fidence in domestic food companies

and increased middle class consumer

demand for imported food. Consum-

ers prefer imported food because of

the stricter safety controls during pack-

aging and processing, the absence of

unhealthy additives and the rigorous

product testing – areas where China is

lacking.

Nearly two-thirds of Chinese con-

sumers reported a decline in con-

fidence in domestic food quality in

2012, with nearly 30% reporting that

they intend to purchase more import-

ed food products in lieu of reputable

domestic brands. Dairy products top

the list of most purchased imported

food products at 77%, followed by

grains and oil at 57% and children’s

food at 56%, mirroring the list of

recent food contamination scares.

Stepping up standardsSo how can confidence be restored

in domestically sourced food? More

stringent government regulations and

oversight are one important way. But

domestic food businesses need not

wait for government.

There is an opportunity for busi-

nesses in China to tap into the demand

for foods that are perceived to be

healthy or at least safe. Businesses can

gain consumer confidence by provid-

ing transparency regarding their supply

chain, meeting or exceeding the food

safety standards of developed coun-

tries, properly training employees who

handle food and ensuring that custom-

ers are aware of all these commitments.

Transparency of the food supply

chain, especially regarding the han-

dling of raw materials and process-

ing, begins with educating consum-

ers about the food production process

itself. This not only builds confidence

but also helps consumers to hold a

business accountable in the future.

One example is Metro Group, a

German retailer with significant opera-

tions in China. In 2007, Metro Group

set up Star Farm, a local consultancy

company and purchaser of agricul-

COLUMN

August 201318

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COLUMN

tural products, in cooperation with

the Chinese Ministry of Trade and

local authorities. The objective of the

project is to train local farmers, factory

workers and retail employees in food

quality, safety and traceability along

the entire value chain for both domes-

tic and export markets. Currently,

Metro Cash & Carry offers customers

more than 1,000 products bearing the

Star Farm seal.

In 2009, Star Farm introduced an

integrated traceability system, with bar

codes and QR codes on domestic food

products traveling from farm to mar-

ket, providing consumers with trans-

parent and clear information about

each product’s sourcing.

Star Farm’s traceability system

begins at the farm. Next, the factory

uses the system to ensure compliance

with strict good manufacturing prac-

tices (GMP) and Global Food Safety

Initiative (GFSI) standards. The codes

– which can be tracked on Star Farm’s

website, through an iPhone app or by

an in-store terminal machine – pro-

vide immediate access to the name and

address of the originating farm, basic

logistical information and the inspec-

tion report of any Star Farm product.

While Star Farm focuses on gro-

cery purchases, restaurant chain Ele-

ment Fresh is training its employees

on standards for the safe handling

of food in its central kitchens and at

its restaurants. The concept is that

although food safety is supported by

well-designed systems, systems are

ultimately driven by people. Proper

training is needed to operate the res-

taurant’s raw purchasing, cold sup-

ply chain and kitchen based on hazard

analysis and critical control points.

Beefing up business practicesBusinesses can choose to exceed rather

than just meet regulatory standards.

Inner Mongolia’s Kerchin Cattle

Industry, one of the five biggest profit

earners in China’s beef industry, is an

example of such a business. In 2001,

the company built a slaughterhouse,

designed and supervised by Ger-

man engineers, that it claims is in full

accordance with EU regulations.

Kerchin’s facility boasts advanced

slaughtering and processing equip-

ment, superior quality controls and

advanced quarantine facilities.

The company spent more than

US$11.4 million (RMB70 million) on

the slaughterhouse, several times more

than what a slaughterhouse that meets

domestic standards might cost.

Such best practices coupled with

better communication with custom-

ers, preempt consumer doubt and help

them to recognize safe and healthy

sources. By operating a business that

is accountable to customers, Chinese

companies can provide a viable and

presumably less expensive alternative

to imported food products. However,

until the widespread adoption of these

practices, imported food products

will continue to enjoy a strong prefer-

ence among those consumers who can

afford the sticker price.

Adil Husain is president of Emerg-

ing Asia Group, a market intelligence

and M&A firm headquartered in

Shanghai. Chenni Xu is a consultant

at the firm

August 2013 19

COLUMN

Don’t hold your breath on US-China investment treaty

Sino-US trade talks

The US and China

said last month

that they plan to

restart talks on a bilateral

investment treaty. The

announcement was one

of the clearest results of

the US-China Strategic

and Economic Dialogue

talks in Washington.

But given China’s track record, it is

not clear that such a treaty is a useful

step now or in the near future. It may

be a good thing, then, that the two

countries are unlikely to agree to one

and put it into effect for several years.

To be sure, news of such treaty nego-

tiations has been praised on both sides

of the Pacific. Chinese Commerce Min-

ister Gao Hucheng is pleased about the

restart of BIT talks. He has reason to be:

China’s main complaint to the US has

been its inconsistent treatment of Chi-

nese investors, exactly what an invest-

ment treaty is supposed to address.

The American business community

is also pleased. Some problems expe-

rienced by American firms, such as

coercive technology transfer, could be

addressed by a treaty. But others, such

as China’s regulatory protection of

state-owned enterprises from competi-

tion, would require difficult internal

Chinese reform beyond the scope of a

treaty.

American Treasury Secretary Jack

Lew said a bilateral investment treaty

“would work to level the playing field

for American workers and businesses

by opening markets for fair competi-

tion.” Lew might mistakenly be think-

ing of a free trade agreement, a very

high-standard free trade agreement.

Investment treaties are primarily about

protecting investors from discrimina-

tory government policies. They are

not transformative instruments which

change the nature of economies, espe-

cially not large economies. This is the

first problem with such a treaty: Amer-

ican business and government may be

seeing their hopes and dreams for the

Chinese market, rather than what is

actually on the table.

One could argue that a bilateral

investment treaty is to some extent

flexible, so fundamental reforms could

be partly addressed. This brings us to

the second problem with this type of

treaty: Why should the US believe the

Chinese government wants to reform,

especially in ways that suit American

interests?

Bilateral talks on an investment

treaty started in 2008, but they found-

ered because the previous Chinese gov-

ernment had no interest in reform.

The new Chinese government has

talked about reform but done nothing

yet. Moreover, it faces a series of dif-

ficult challenges domestically, hardly a

situation where China will make policy

choices to match American desires.

The third problem with a bilateral

investment treaty is American poli-

tics. The main China issues that the

US Congress focuses on – the bilateral

trade deficit, currency “manipulation”

and other trade distortions – are not

likely to be addressed in an investment

treaty. Further, Congress does not trust

China to implement its pledges. China

is not just any economic partner. A

US-China investment treaty is going to

be debated – hotly.

The Senate already faces political-

ly painful upcoming votes including

those on Trade Promotion Author-

ity, which changes the way Congress

can influence trade agreements and

is likely to be voted on this year; the

Trans-Pacific Partnership trade bloc

that will probably be voted on next

year; and the Trans-Atlantic Partner-

ship free trade agreement between the

US and EU possibly in 2015.

It would be very dubious politics to

jump China ahead of American friends

in the trade queue. Additionally, mul-

tiple political bloodlettings over trade

in a single year seem as unlikely as a

pro-China vote during the 2016 presi-

dential campaign.

Congress is therefore unlikely to

approve a bilateral investment treaty

before 2017. That time should be used

for the US to set priorities that fit with-

in the framework of such a treaty and

for the new Chinese government to

show its commitment to reform.

Derek Scissors is a senior research fel-

low in Asia economic policy in the

Asian Studies Center at The Heritage

Foundation in Washington, DC

August 201320

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专栏

我们有必要再次强调，增长并不必然

导致崩溃；但是如果增长导致了过

冲、导致需求的扩张超出了地球资源所能

维持的水平时，崩溃必然紧随而来。1972

年时看起来人类人口和经济还是令人欣慰

地处在地球的承载能力之下。我们认为只

要做出具有长远眼光的选择仍然有安全增

长的空间。在1972年时这么想是正确的，

但到1992年时就并非如此了。

早在20世纪90年代初期，就已经有

越来越多的证据显示人类正在走进无法持

续的恐怖之中。例如，有报告说热带雨林

正在以一种不可持续的速度被砍伐；有人

推断粮食产量将不足以维持人口的增长；

有人认为气候正在变暖；还有人关心 近

出现的臭氧洞。然而，对绝大多数人来

说，这些累加起来也不足以证明人类已经

超出了地球环境的承载能力。我们不同意

这种观点。我们的观点是，在20世纪90年

代前期已经无法再通过明智的政策来避免

过冲的出现，过冲已经成为事实了，主要

任务已经变成将世界从陷入到无法持续的

恐怖中拉回来。

人类足迹的增长在过去的30年里有许多正面的发展。

与持续增长的人类足迹相对应，这个世界

采用了新技术，消费者改变了他们的购买

习惯，一些新的制度也创立起来，一些多

边协议也已经达成。在一些地区，粮食、

能源和工业产出的增长率已经大大超过了

人口增长率。在这些地区大多数人都变得

越来越富裕。人口增长率下降了，相应的

收入水平却提高了。人们的环境意识也比

1970年时要高很多。在大多数国家都有环

境事务部，环境教育已经普遍开展起来。

在富裕国家，大多数大气污染问题和工厂

排污管道的污染问题已经消除，并且领先

的企业正成功地取得更高的生态效益。

这些明显的成就使我们很难在1990

年左右谈论过冲问题。困难来自缺乏基本

的数据甚至缺乏关于过冲的基本词汇。我

们差不多用了二十多年的时间才建立起足

够成熟的概念体系（例如，把GDP的增

长同生态足迹的增长区分开来）从而使得

关于增长极限问题的沟通成为可能。然

而，国际社会仍然在试着理解“可持续”

的概念，在布伦特兰委员会（Brundtland

Commission）铸就这一名词16年之后，

对它的理解仍然是含混不清的并被广泛

滥用。

在过去10年中又有许多新的数据进一

步支持了我们关于世界已经处于过冲状态

的判断。现在看来，全球人均粮食产量在

20世纪80年代中期达到了高峰。海洋鱼类

的捕捞量会显著增长的前景已经不复存在

了。自然灾害所带来的损失在不断提高，

并且对重新分配清洁水源和矿物燃料的争

夺也在不断加剧，甚至导致冲突。尽管科

学上的共识和气象数据都表明全球气候正

在因人类活动而改变，但美国和其他大国

却仍在继续增加它们的温室气体排放。在

许多地方和地区已经出现持续的经济衰

退。1990~2001年的十多年间，占世界人

口12%的54个国家都出现了人均GDP的

下滑。

在过去的10年间也出现了新的词汇

和数量方法来讨论过冲问题。例如，马西

斯·瓦科纳格尔（Mathis Wackerna-

gel）和他的同事测度了人类的生态足迹

并将其与地球的“承载能力”相对比。他

们把生态足迹定义为为国际社会提供资源

（粮食、饲料、树木、鱼类和城市用地）

和吸收排放物（二氧化碳）所需要的土地

面积。与能够得到的土地相比较，瓦科纳

格尔得出结论认为人类资源的使用目前

已经超出了地球承载能力

的20%。用这种方法来衡

量，人类在20世纪80年代

还保持在可持续的水平上，

但现在已经过冲了20%。

令人感到悲哀的是，

尽管在技术和制度上都取得

了一些进步，但人类的生态

足迹仍然在扩大。更为严峻

的是，人类“已经”处于

无法持续的恐怖之中。然而，令人失望的

是，对这种困境的总体意识还是非常有限

的。想要得到政治上的支持去改变个人的

价值观和公共政策，进而扭转目前这种趋

势并将生态足迹带回到地球的长期承载能

力之下，需要很长的时间。

将会发生什么地球面临的挑战可以简单概括为：要

实现可持续发展，人类必须提高这个世界

上穷人的消费水平，同时减少人类总的生

态足迹。因此必须要有技术的进步、个人

的转变以及长期规划的视野；必须要有超

越政治疆界的更高的尊重、关切和分享。

这即便是在 好的条件下也需要付出几十

年的努力才能达到。当前没有一个政治团

体对这样一个计划给予广泛的支持，更不

要说让富国和强国通过减少自己的足迹给

穷国让出发展的空间了。相反，全球的生

态足迹却在日益扩大。

因而，我们对地球的未来比在1972

年时更感到悲观。一个可悲的事实是，在

过去的30年中人类把大部分时间浪费在毫

无意义的争吵之中，只是对全球生态挑战

做出了半心半意的反应。我们不可能再有

30年的时间去犹豫不决了。如果不想让正

在发生的过冲在21世纪演变成崩溃，有许

多事情必须要改变。

August 2013 21

增长的极限生态过冲的概念在21世纪比自由贸易更为重要文 | 丹尼斯·梅多斯（Dennis Meadows）美国麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院教授

丹尼斯·梅多斯

专栏

过冲状态我们经常被问道：“关于增长的极限

的预测对吗？”注意，这是一家媒体的语

言而不是我们的话！我们仍然把我们的研

究工作视为探究各种可能的未来的一种努

力。我们并不想去预测未来。我们在勾勒

人类迈向2100年的不同场景。尽管如此，

对过去30年来的经验教训进行一下总结还

是有益的。

刚开始，当时大多数经济学家跟许多

实业家、政客以及第三世界的创业者都站

出来对增长极限的观点表示愤怒。但是，

事实 终证明了关于全球生态制约的观念

并不是荒诞不经的。这些的的确确限制了

实物增长，并且对我们为实现我们的目标

而选择的政策能否成功产生了巨大影响。

同时，历史已经证明，人类社会只有有限

的能力能在短期内采取明智的、有远见

的、利他的但却是对一些重要角色不利的

措施来对这些限制做出反应。

1972年以来，资源和排放约束已经

制造了好多次危机，这些危机让媒体感到

兴奋，吸引了公众的注意力，也唤醒了政

治家们。一些重要产油国石油产量的下

降、大气同温层中臭氧层的变薄、全球温

度的上升、四处蔓延的持续饥荒、对有毒

废物处置地点的争吵升级、地下水水位的

下降、物种的消失、森林的退化等，这些

还只是已经引发大量研究并成为国际会

议和全球公约议题的一些问题。所有这些

都证明了我们的结论或与我们的结论相一

致，就是说，物质增长的约束应当是21世

纪制定全球政策的一个重要方面。

我们希望再次强调人类已经处于过冲

状态之中，通过明智的政策可以大大减少

它所带来的破坏和灾难。提供数据和分析

来批驳那种盛行的认为人类正处于21世纪

的正确发展轨道上的政治性宣传。提醒全

世界的公民思考他们的行动和选择的长期

后果，并凝聚他们的政治力量支持并采取

行动以减少过冲所带来的损失。

可持续发展过渡在为实现可持续发展而进行的斗争

中，我们的确在环境保护运动的早期提高

了人们对环境问题的警觉和关注。许多学

生确立起新的人生目标并致力于研究与环

境和可持续发展相关的问题。所有这些都

是有益的。

但是，我们所做的工作在许多方面

也显得有些乏力。本书的主要目的是希望

通过引起人们对地球生态过冲现象的注意

而使人们对增长是万能的观念产生质疑。

我们的确使“增长的极限”一词被广泛使

用，然而这一词汇却经常被错误理解并以

一种过分简化的方式被使用。许多批评者

认为我们对增长的极限的关注来自于认为

矿物资源或其他一些资源将很快被耗尽的

观念。事实上，我们的理解要更精细一

些，我们担心的是，目前的政策将因为不

能有效地应对和处理生态极限而导致全球

性的过冲和崩溃。我们相信，目前人类的

经济活动已经超出了一些重要的极限，这

种过冲在未来的几十年中将会大大强化。

我们在此前的两本书中没能以更明晰的方

式传递这一理念，我们没能让“过冲”这

一概念成为公众讨论的主流概念。

拿我们的结果跟那些在过去的30年

中致力于推行自由贸易理念的集团（主要

由经济学家组成）做比较是有益的。与我

们不同，他们已经成功地让他们的理念成

为一个家喻户晓的词汇。与我们不同，他

人类已处于生态过冲状态

August 201322

们已经成功地让无数政客为自由贸易而争

斗。但是，当自由贸易政策也迅速导致个

人或地区蒙受包括失业在内的损失时，他

们也得面对因缺乏基本的说服力和可信度

而出现的广泛质疑。对于因追求自由贸易

目标而导致的全部成本和收益也会有许多

错误的理解。生态过冲的概念对我们来说

在21世纪比自由贸易更为重要，却远远没

有引起公众的注意和重视。

过冲和崩溃当一个社会没有为未来做好充分准

备时，就会出现过冲并进而导致社会福利

的下降。例如，如果没有为不断减少的石

油储量、越来越短缺的野生鱼类以及越来

越昂贵的热带木材准备好替代品，一旦这

些资源开始枯竭，福利受损的情况就会发

生。如果在过冲过程中这些资源的基础遭

到侵蚀或破坏，问题将变得更加严重。其

结果，社会就可能会经历崩溃。

全球过冲和崩溃的一个生动例子就

在人类迈入新千年的时候实实在在地发生

了全球股票市场上的“dot-com”泡沫

破裂。

就跟人类超过了资源或排放的极限将

发生的情况一样，在股票价格长期向上走

的过程中几乎没有出现任何困难。相反，

每当股指达到一个新的高点时，都会激发

出更多的狂热。 值得一提的是，即使是

在股票价格已经达到了无法持续的恐怖高

点（事后看来在1998时就已经发生）之

后，在达到峰值很长时间并且进入崩溃好

几年之后，投资者才开始承认出现了“泡

沫”—这是他们用以描述“过冲”的词

汇。一旦进入崩溃，没有人能够阻止这种

下滑。在股价崩溃已经持续了3年后，许多

人还对它是否会结束持怀疑态度。投资者

信心完全被侵蚀掉了。

令人悲哀的是，我们相信世界将会在

资源使用和排放方面经历跟“dot-com”

泡沫非常相像的过冲和崩溃，并且将在

更长时间范围内。即便是在已经进入不可

持续的恐怖状况（我们知道，这已经发生

了）很长时间之后，人们仍会欢迎和庆祝

所取得的阶段性增长。崩溃将到来得非常

突然，大大出乎每个人的意料。并且，等

到它已经持续了几年之后，人们就会越来

越清楚原来早在崩溃之前就已经达到完全

不可持续的状态了。在经历更多年的下降

之后，很少会有人相信崩溃将会终结，很

少会有人相信能再拥有足够的能源和丰富

的野生鱼类。我们真希望这些将被证明是

错误的。

增长的极限曾经是遥远的未来，但

今天它们已经广泛存在。崩溃的概念曾经

被认为是不可思议的，但今天它已经进入

公众谈论的话题，尽管它仍然是一个遥远

的、假设性的和学术化的概念。

（本文根据机械工业出版社华章经典《增

长的极限》第3版前言删节整理）

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Level 29 Kerry CentreLevel 23 Citigroup Tower Level 5 Bund

Level 24 China Central PlaceLevel 19 Oriental Plaza

Level 54 IFC –

Center

Level 3 Jiahua

Center

Level 19 Two IFC Level 9 HK Club Bldg Level 12, 1 Peking Rd

August 2013 23

COLUMN

Beijing should fi xate on productivity as GDP obsession fades

Boosting Chinese productivity

Fo r m o r e t h a n

three decades ,

China’s GDP has

grown by an average of

more than 10% annually.

B u t f o r m e r P r e -

mier Wen Jiabao rightly

described this impres-

sive growth performance

in 2007 as “unstable,

unbalanced, uncoor-

dinated and unsustain-

able,” highlighting the

many economic, social

and environmental costs

and challenges that have

accompanied it.

Now China must

choose between the

export-based, invest-

ment-driven growth model of the

past and a new, more viable economic

order.

Cheap credit and perverse incen-

tives – such as promotions for officials

who contribute most to GDP growth

– have led to massive but redundant

investment, which, in turn, has con-

tributed to excess capacity in manufac-

turing and infrastructure. This model

is not only inefficient; channeling gov-

ernment resources to support invest-

ment also undermines China’s social

development.

Given this, China’s leaders have

decided to stop using GDP growth

as the primary criterion for evaluat-

ing officials’ performance. Indeed, the

12th Five-Year Plan, which extends

until 2015, aims to shift China’s

economy to a new, more sustainable

growth model based on quality and

innovation and accepts that annual

GDP growth will likely fall to 7% dur-

ing the transition.

Most discussion of growth mod-

els nowadays is based on work by

the Nobel laureate economist Rob-

ert Solow. For Solow, GDP growth

is determined by the factor inputs of

land, labor and capital, together with

the economy’s total factor productiv-

ity (TFP, or the change in output not

accounted for by changes in the vol-

ume of inputs, but by factors like tech-

nological innovation and institutional

reform).

By implementing major reform

since economic opening in the late

1970s, China has achieved three peri-

ods of high productivity growth, each

lasting five to seven years. First, in the

early 1980’s, annual TFP accelerated to

3-4% after the government introduced

the rural household-responsibility sys-

tem, which boosted agricultural pro-

ductivity and released a large amount

of unskilled labor to work in the high-

er-productivity urban and industrial

sectors.

The second such period followed

Deng Xiaoping’s southern tour in

1992, during which he emphasized

the need to shift to a market-based

– albeit state-controlled – system by

opening China’s economy to foreign

direct investment and establishing spe-

cial economic zones to help develop

export-oriented industries. This time,

TFP growth soared to 5-6%, partly

owing to the “catching up” process

facilitated by China’s adoption of for-

eign technology and know-how.

Finally, the most recent spike

in productivity occured after major

reforms of state-owned enterprises

(SOEs) and the tax system institut-

ed when China acceded to the World

Trade Organization in 2001. With

the country fully integrated into glo-

bal supply chains, TFP growth hit 4%,

where it remained until 2007. Since

then, however, the TFP growth rate

has fallen by almost half.

Indeed, China’s economy has expe-

rienced a significant – and ongoing

– growth slowdown in the wake of the

global economic crisis that erupted five

years ago. By 2012, human capital’s

contribution to China’s GDP growth

fell almost to zero, with fixed-capital

accumulation accounting for roughly

60% of total growth.

Large-scale, debt-funded capital

investments have raised the country’s

credit-to-GDP ratio to nearly 200%,

increasing the financial system’s vul-

nerability – a development reflected in

the recent spike in interbank interest

rates.

To achieve more balanced and sus-

tainable GDP growth, China’s leaders

must implement a set of deep, com-

prehensive and long-lasting institu-

tional reforms aimed at boosting pro-

ductivity. In particular, the reforms

should be designed to facilitate China’s

August 201324

g

m

m

d

s

i

Andrew Sheng

i

u

d

a

m

a

a

a

cXiao Geng

transition from its traditional supply-

based growth model, which assumes

that building hard infrastructure leads

automatically to demand growth.

In fact, GDP growth may be slowing

precisely because existing investment

in manufacturing and infrastructure,

undertaken largely by local govern-

ments and SOEs, does not match the

pattern of domestic demand. As a

result, China now faces the problem of

short-term excess capacity.

Improving the quality of GDP

growth will depend on Chinese leaders’

willingness to enact market-oriented

reforms. Rather than directly driving

investment, the state must emphasize

its regulatory and enforcement func-

tions, including setting and overseeing

standards, building an effective prop-

erty-rights infrastructure and manag-

ing macroeconomic conditions. At the

same time, the state must improve the

quality and delivery of education, health

care and security, while minimizing

corruption and administrative abuses.

In short, China must shift its focus

from meeting GDP growth targets to

creating an environment that fosters

innovation and competition, thereby

enabling market forces to set prices

and allocate resources more effectively.

The state would thus become an inter-

mediary agent, facilitating the develop-

ment of a sustainable economic order

in which less is more – that is, a system

in which less intervention creates more

opportunities for creativity.

SOEs undoubtedly played an

important role in China’s previous

growth model, delivering the infra-

structure and services that were

deemed necessary for the global man-

ufacturing supply chain to function.

But access to cheap credit from state-

controlled banks creates an incentive

for SOEs to generate surplus capacity,

which increases systemic risk in the

economy. To correct China’s excess-

capacity problem would require the

relevant enterprises, whether SOEs or

private firms, to exit the market.

Unless China’s leaders implement

major structural reforms aimed at

establishing a market-based growth

model, they will be unable to avoid the

“middle-income trap” that has pre-

vented so many developing economies

from attaining advanced-country sta-

tus. The deceleration in GDP growth

that such reforms would cause would

be more than offset by increased mar-

ket dynamism and overall economic

stability.

Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung

Global Institute, is a former chair-

man of the Hong Kong Securities and

Futures Commission, and is current-

ly an adjunct professor at Tsinghua

University in Beijing. Xiao Geng is

Director of Research at the Fung Glo-

bal Institute

(Published in partnership with

Project Syndicate. Copyright: Project

Syndicate, 2013)

August 2013 25

P27 P27 新变局新变局

P34 P34 商业银行面临大考商业银行面临大考

P38 P38 股权投资大浪淘沙股权投资大浪淘沙

金融变革

封面故事

August 201326

新变局改革金融体系激发市场和经济的内生活力

金融体制改革迫在眉睫，近期各种政

策相继推出。如央行宣布放开金融

机构贷款利率管制，取消贷款利率七折下

限，金融机构根据商业原则自主确定贷款

利率水平。从7月20日开始施行。

金融业需要面对的问题很多。6月

2 0 日 ， 上 海 的 银 行 隔 夜 拆 借 利 率 达 到

13.44%，7天拆借率冲到11%；隔夜回购

成交利率创下历史新高30%，7天回购成

交利率突破28%。这一事件被称为银行业

的“钱荒”。然而，真正闹钱荒的却另有

其人。进入6月份，中小企业资金链断裂波

及到更大面积，经济链条中 为薄弱的中

小企业面临着生死考验。

金融改革的本质是打破垄断，加快市

场化进程。互联网金融日益壮大，阿里巴

巴正在成为金融领域的搅局者，传统金融

业陷入尴尬境地，不变革则不足以应对风

声鹤唳的竞争环境。

合理区间管理思路放开金融机构贷款利率管制出自高层

决策，显示出改革金融系统和其他经济部

门的决心，体现了决策层提出“更好地发

挥市场机制作用，激发市场和经济的内生

活力，促进国民经济持续健康发展，打造

中国经济升级版”的思路。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)创造

了新词“李克强经济学”(Likonomics)，

用来指代新总理为中国制定的经济增长计

划。为应对地方债危机、贸易壁垒增加、

热钱出逃、银行钱荒等，推出挤水分、调

结构、简政放权、布局城镇化、力促发展

模式转型等政策，主要由三个主要部分构

成：不出台刺激措施、去杠杆化和结构性

改革。

7月23日，李克强在与经济专家和

企业界人士座谈时，提出合理区间的管

理思路。为合理区间设置的上限是防通

胀，CPI控制在3.5%左右；下限是GDP增

长7.5%，依照“保就业”的要求测算。这

个底线是保证到2020年GDP比2010年翻

一番的目标。提出“放权可以激发市场活

力，调动更多的社会资本，从而发挥稳增

长的作用”。

分析人士认为，合理区间的管理思路

显示出中国不会尝试“休克疗法”，会尽

力保障GDP增速7.5%的底线，在改革和

微调的混合模式下摸索前进。

地方债务骤升是个大问题，怎么处

理？2010年底，全国31个省市区的地方

债政府性债务总额为10.72万亿元。今年2

月，国际金融机构发布的一份报告提出，

各级政府负债可能高达30多万亿元。而审

计署副审计长董大胜认为，根据国债、外

债等数据测算，各级政府的负债应该在15

万亿至18万亿元。地方政府热衷于发行

债券，对地方债券的管理模式究竟是“禁

止”还是“放开”？目前尚未确定。

利率市场化改革利率市场化是金融改革的核心内容。

在今年第五轮中美战略与经济对话框架下

的经济对话中，中方承诺将推进利率市场

化改革。

7月初，国务院正式宣布上海自由贸

易区试验计划，关键是开放外汇市场和利

率市场化。

利率市场化的推行，尤其是贷款利率

下限完全放开，将加剧商业银行之间的竞

争，同时会收窄银行业的息差水平。

美国数据显示，利息收入从原来的

80%降低到60%。而中国银行利息收入占

比竟达到86%，中小商业银行对于利息收

入的依赖远高于大型国有商业银行，息差

收入是其 主要的收入来源。中国银行

August 2013 27

应该摆脱对利息收入的过分依赖。

央行负责人表示，此举有利于促进金

融机构采取差异化的定价策略，降低企业

融资成本，并不断提高自主定价能力，转

变经营模式。

央行此次改革没有扩大金融机构存款

利率浮动区间，一些业内人士认为，未来

存款利率将完全放开。原招行行长马蔚华

表示：“贷款利率放开了，但存款利率还

是受管制的。贷款利率现在放不放，好像

也没什么影响。放开存款利率，才十分关

键。利率如果一旦市场化了，对中国的商

业银行才是大考。”

分析人士认为，银行其实已经在实施

存款利率市场化，银行理财产品变相提高

存款收益，很大程度上就是利率市场化。

但央行不会轻易放开。

看一下18年来的利率市场化进程：

1996年6月，取消银行间拆借利率的上

限；1996年；财政部首次以市场招标的方

式确定国债发行利率；1998年10月31日

金融机构对小企业的贷款利率上浮幅度由

10%扩大到20%；农村信用社贷款利率上

浮幅度由40%扩大到50%；1999年中小

企业贷款利率上浮幅度扩大到30%；2004

年1月 商业银行、城市信用社贷款利率上

限扩大到基准利率的1.7倍；2004年10月

基本取消了金融机构人民币贷款的浮动上

限；2012年6月8日 人民币贷款利率下限

放开至基准利率的0.8倍；存款利率上限

放开至基准利率的1.1倍；2012年7月6日

人民币贷款利率下限放开至基准利率的0.7

倍，2013年7月20日 金融机构贷款利率全

面放开。

中小微企业融资6月中旬，中小企业协会会长李子彬

给国务院写了一封信，反映中小企业面临

的生存困境，尤其是资金链紧张问题和融

资难、融资贵的问题。

在连续两个季度回升之后，第二季度

中国中小企业发展指数降至93.1%，比一

季度下降2.1个百分点，其中分行业指数2

升6降，分项指数3升5降。

“温州中小企业仍然处在 困难的时

期。”温州中小企业促进会会长周德文

表示。

在中小微企业发展较快的广东省，今

年以来同样面临的问题，1-5月份规模以

上中小微企业亏损面仍高达23.6%。

国家工商总局发布的小微企业金融

需求满意度调查结果显示，样本企业对当

前小微企业融资环境表示“一般满意”，

而超半数企业表示向国有商业银行融资

困难。

据一些民营企业家反映，温州银行针

对中小微企业的贷款利率一般会在银行贷

款基准利率的水平上浮30%，年融资成本

都在10%以上甚至更高。

放开贷款利率下限，对于中小微企业

融资可能会带来便利，银行会更关注议价

能力比较弱的中小企业领域。但由于小微

企业在银行面前不具备议价能力，因此几

乎拿不到折扣利率贷款，政策实施后能获

得低利率的可能性极小。

央行行长周小川在《人民日报》刊文

称，决策层高度重视小微企业的持续健康

发展，已经出台了一系列支持小微企业发

展的财税金融政策，金融系统也不断加大

小微企业金融服务， 新的政策是从8月1

日起对小微企业中月销售额不超过2万元的

增值税小规模纳税人和营业税纳税人，暂

免征收增值税和营业税。

虽然已经出台了许多相关政策，但

大多并没有真正落实。经济学家巴曙松建

议，政府和银行应放低门槛、提供支持，

帮助小微企业转型。

马蔚华认为：“大企业违约概率低，

但一旦违约，违约损失率非常高，而小企

业违约概率高，但违约损失率低。”数据

显示，全国中小企业有4000多万家，银行

封面故事

央行宣布放开金融机构贷款利率管制

August 201328

目前提供融资的小微客户只有100万家。

面对如此巨大的市场需求，银行理应改变

自身运作模式。目前，越来越多的银行开

始重视小微企业。由于洞察到小微企业中

存在的巨大的信贷需求，富国银行率先开

启了小微企业信贷中的零售信贷模式。

互联网金融崛起阿里小贷、资产证券化刚成为市场热

议的焦点，首支私募小贷资产证券化产品

即已经闪电般完成募集。7月11日，独立

财富管理行业翘楚诺亚财富与阿里巴巴旗

下阿里小贷公司的首支私募信贷资产证券

化产品已经募集完成。

近几年，随着互联网化程度不断加

深，一些纯粹的互联网应用开始深入到金

融领域，对金融业务进行创新，使金融业

务更加符合互联网的属性。

支付宝“余额宝”是2013年6月推

出的，一种可以让用户存款获得利息的功

能。开通以后，支付宝用户将钱存在余额

宝，会产生类似银行的利息。

短短一个月，平均账户仅2000元的阿

里巴巴“余额宝”销售规模已经达到近百

亿人民币。“余额宝”成了炙手可热的话

题。“跨界”这个词在保守、冷静而稳健

的金融行业中开始风靡。“互联网金融”

和“大资管时代”的两股冲击波形成合

力，让这个夏天的金融行业充满了变化。

而将用户闲散的活期存款吸引到余额

宝中，在一定程度上危及了银行通过存贷

款息差获取盈利的模式。

诺亚财富认为，资本市场如同大海，

动荡不已。在互联网金融和大资产时代的

汹涌大潮面前， 重要不是追随 新的概

念，而是围绕着客户的深层需求而不断创

新，用实实在在的业绩回报客户，用细致

周到的服务，赢得客户长久的信任。

易观金融及支付行业中心研究总监、

高级分析师张萌剖析互联网金融的发展轨

迹。1995年更多的还是金融行业、银行

业的互联网化过程，像网上银行、手机银

行以及银行电商等，随着时间的延伸，现

在银行也在做电商，手机银行成为银行布

局非常重要的关键点。2000年开始第三

方支付出现，发展到今天，第三方支付已

经取得了非常好的成果，到2012年，互联

网支付交易规模已经超过3.8万亿。2006

年，第三方网络信贷开始出现，包含两大

方面：第一个方面是电商加信贷的模式，

如早期的在线B2B平台，可以为平台商户

提供在线信贷服务，这一两年越来越多的

B2C商城、B2C的平台也开始介入在线信

贷，如阿里就是做在线信贷比较早的典型

厂商。还有去年京东已经开始和中国银行

做供应链金融服务。苏宁也已经提出做小

贷业务。从2009年开始，保险业开始互联

网金融的发展步伐。2010年，基金行业

开始互联网化的历程，基金行业互联网化

包含两个重要的方面：一个方面是越来越

多的基金公司开始开发直营店，通过互联

网的方式进行基金销售。还有一个方面，

“余额宝就是非常明显的基金业利用互联

网技术以及和第三方支付结合来进行基金

互联网化的标志性事件。”张萌说道。

互联网金融的监管是大问题。张萌

表示，在P2P发展过程中，还有一些障

碍。P2P领域属于监管的空白，没有非常

明确的法律法规的规定，以及比较明确的

监管方，那么就造成P2P市场的进入门槛

不高，鱼龙混杂的情况非常明显。有一些

P2P平台出现了卷用户的钱跑路的情况。

未来P2P是不是能够得到国家正式的认

可，这种风险也是存在的。

“在经济发展过程中，信用体系还

要进一步完善，现在阻碍经济发展的非常

重要的因素，也是阻碍P2P平台资金交易

规模增长的重要因素，就是信用体系还有

待完善。信用体系其实是支撑P2P平台交

易规模增长的非常重要的因素。”张萌说

道。

余额宝成了炙手可热的话题

August 2013 29

China’s central bank acts abruptly, and not for the fi rst time

Financial system reform?

COVER STORY

August 201330

If the cash squeeze in June didn’t catch you off guard,

perhaps the central bank freeing loan rates did. Just

before market close, the People’s Bank of China

(PBoC) said it would scrap the floor on lending

rates – effective the next day. Banks will now be

able to lend below the 4.19% base rate, which was previ-

ously set at 70% of the one-year benchmark lending rate

of 6%.

Chinese central bank officials are adept at surprise

reform. The PBoC has long kept a stranglehold on lending

rates and deposit rates, the returns on accounts for aver-

age Chinese savers. After eight years of virtual inaction, the

central bank lowered the lending floor in early June last

year from 90% to 80% of the benchmark and raised the cap

on bank deposits to 110% of the benchmark.

Then, only a month later, it dropped the floor again,

this time to 70% the benchmark. Deposit rates have

remained untouched.

Analysts have called the move an important signal for

reforms to come – although a largely symbolic one. Gen-

erally, banks have not been competing on lending rates.

About 90% of lending in China is at or above the bench-

mark, according to HSBC.

Also, lending quotas will be tight in the second half

of the year. Banks have already lent out nearly 60% of an

annual quota HSBC expects will be around US$1.34 bilion

(RMB8.5 trillion). As the money to lend runs out, banks

will be able to command higher interest rates, further

pushing lending above the benchmark rate.

Some state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that have hefty

bargaining power, tight relationships with banks or are

particularly low risk might get loans below the former

limit. This hardly qualifies as substantive reform.

“We reckon that only a very selected few large SOEs

might benefit slightly from this rate deregulation,” Lu Ting,

China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in

Hong Kong, wrote in a note.

August 2013 31

In this sense, banks will take a hit on

their bottom lines because lending at

lower rates will drive down net inter-

est margins, Moody’s Investors Service

noted. Previously, state-owned banks

had been guaranteed to pocket at least

the difference between the deposit rate

cap and the floor on lending rates.

Therefore, ditching the floor will

have little real effect on China’s bank-

ing system for the time being, and few

will benefit from the change.

Real winners in financial reform

will be declared when China abolishes

the cap on deposit rates. Those win-

ners, of course, will be the Chinese

people, who held some US$15.9 tril-

lion in deposits as of the end of March.

An artificially low rate on deposits,

often lower than the rate of inflation,

means that savers are regularly losing

money in real terms.

“Deposits rate liberalization holds

the key to full liberalization of interest

COVER STORY

rates,” Qu Hongbin, co-head of Asian

economic research at HSBC, wrote in

a note.

Such a bold plan for the cap, which

is 10% above the one-year benchmark,

may have been in the works but was

defeated by banks that have few other

ways of making money, the Financial

Times reported.

The central bank’s game plan is to

move from long-abolished controls on

foreign currency accounts and recent-

ly loosened lending rates to renminbi

accounts and deposit rates, said Oliver

Rui, a professor of finance at China

Europe International Business School

in Shanghai, over the phone.

Liberalization of foreign currency

accounts started in 2000. By 2004, both

the lending floor and the deposit cap

had been removed on those accounts.

Now, with the lending rate floor

removed on renminbi accounts, the

deposit rate cap is the last element of

the reform.

Analysts have pointed out that sev-

eral roadblocks still stand in the way

of that final component to interest rate

liberalization.

Chinese banks have been high-

ly profitable due to the wide spread

between lending and deposit rates. For

banks dealing with high rates of non-

performing loans, narrowing that mar-

gin could be dangerous.

To mitigate these risks, the govern-

ment should first implement a system

for deposit insurance and bankruptcy

protection, both of which appear to be

on the horizon, London-based Capital

Economics stated in a note.

Overall reform to the state-owned

sector will also need to continue before

the caps can be completely ditched,

“otherwise deposit rate liberalization

may not help result in rational behav-

ior,” according to a note from Barclays

Research. Rational behavior could

August 201332

imply accounting for risk in lending

rates, which could open up access to

credit to smaller, more efficient firms

that desperately need cash.

That said, the PBoC could have a

number of tricks up its sleeve, and it

may not wait for every segment of the

market to be completely prepared. Few

people foresaw the back-to-back drops

in lending rates in June and July of last

year. Fewer still could have predicted

the central bank’s refusal to pump cash

into the system in June this year.

After all, in a February 2012 state-

ment that outlined future financial

reforms, policymakers at the central

bank said specifically that if they wait-

ed for all the conditions to be right,

they would “never find a suitable time

to liberalize the capital account.”

August 2013 33

商业银行面临大考马蔚华认为现在必须进行金融创新文 | 铁琴

前招商银行行长马蔚华近日在复旦大

学举办的中国管理者论坛上发表

了《经济转型与金融创新》的演讲，围绕

着“钱荒”问题、利率市场化、金融脱媒

以及商业银行面临的挑战等，谈了自己的

观点，而他的身份已转换为香港永隆银行

有限公司董事长。

被问及未来是否会有意愿向“一行三

会”发展，马蔚华表示：中央高层对我的

评价是十五年心无旁骛一心一意做好商业

银行，确实如此。如果要从政年轻时就有

正厅级别，不缺乏从政机会。“我很看重

职业道德，也就是责任感，这十五年很愉

快，虽然没有当大官，我觉得比当官还要

轻松和愉快。”他说道。

马蔚华谈到，目前中国银行业面临从

未有过的挑战，美国QE退出、实体经济需

求减弱、金融脱媒（包含第三方支付等互

联网的崛起）、利率市场化等。他指出，

其中利率市场化的影响 大，取消贷款利

率下限影响有限，存款利率放开是关键。

在国外推行利率市场化过程中，一年曾有

上百家银行倒闭，台湾还曾出现过整个行

业亏损的情况。

马蔚华指出，中国的商业银行正面临

着前所未有的转型大背景，要想生存，金

融创新是银行现在必须要做的。

利率市场化近日央行宣布放开金融机构贷款利率

管制。马蔚华认为，贷款利率放开了，但

存款利率还是受管制。贷款利率现在放不

放，好像也没什么影响。放开存款利率，

才十分关键。利率如果一旦市场化了，对

中国的商业银行才是大考。

美国在1985年到1986年完成了利率

市场化。之后5年，美国每年都有200家左

右中小银行倒闭。中国台湾在完成利率市

场化以后，利差仅为1.2%，曾经出现整个

行业亏损的状况。

管理层对利率市场化改革较为慎重，

按照既定的路线图来进行，即先外币后本

币，先贷款后存款。马蔚华认为，一旦利

率市场化，对银行的挑战或许大于金融脱

媒。如果存款利率放开，那就是生死攸关

的考验。

未来会不会有非常多的国内银行会

出现优胜劣汰？甚至有些银行出现兼并重

组？马蔚华表示，物竞天择、优胜劣汰

是自然规律，从美国到欧洲，从亚洲到中

国台湾、香港都是如此。现在中国大陆没

有完全进入市场竞争状态，随着利率市场

化，完全竞争的时代已经到来了，当然也

会出台一些如存款保险（放心保）制度等

配套措施。

现在有很多民营企业和社团想办民

营银行，马蔚华建议，目前政策正在逐步

放开民营资本设立银行的限制，但企业家

要慎重考虑是否进入银行业，银行业不自

由，将受到很严格的监管。

封面故事

商业银行面临前所未有的转型大背景

August 201334

资金流动性6月20日，上海的银行隔夜拆借利率

达到13.44%，7天拆借率冲到11%；隔夜

回购成交利率创下历史新高30%，7天回

购成交利率突破28%。紧接着是银行股的

暴跌和100多支股票的断崖式下跌。“钱

荒”让马蔚华意识到中国的银行业正在经

历史无前例的巨大变化与考验。

对于此次资金流动性紧张，有关方面

给出的解释是五点：第一、贷款多了，5月

份全国新增贷款6000亿，6月份时差不多

1万亿。第二、财政资金上缴国库，可能

有3000亿左右。第三、法定存款准备金上

交，银行一般是在月底冲高存款，月底冲

高的是，法定准备金按照冲高率上缴财政

部的国库帐户里。第四、节日期间的流动

性一般比较紧张。第五、外管局出文件考

核商业银行外汇头寸。

马蔚华认为前四条原因每年都会存

在，外汇管制文件以及央行的态度也只是

表面和偶然因素，而对“钱荒”发生起真

正作用的是当下的大背景—三大转型。

首先是全世界经济的转型，主要是美

国经济的复苏。伯兰克宣布美国退出QE，

意味着资本市场的重大变化开始了，包括

资产重组、价格的重新界定及汇率的逆

转，毫无疑问将冲击全球市场，对中国经

济也势必产生影响。

其次是中国经济的转型，中国以低价

劳动力和出口市场获取经济发展的时代即

将结束。中国一直维持较高GDP，但相

比西方国家，GDP内涵低、质量低、技术

含量低。中国科研经费占GDP的比重只有

2%，而世界上 小的发达国家以色列也占

到了4%-5%。

要提高GDP的技术含量必须要进行结

构调整和转型升级，而在资金宽松的情况

下很难做到。今年上半年，中国社会融资

总量超过10万亿，比去年同期增长了2万

多亿，M2达到105万亿，超出去年14%，

然而GDP却没有增长。毫无疑问，一些

钱跑到生产过剩的产业中去了，如果不及

时转型，中国企业将出现相当困难局面。

对目前推行的“搞活存量，调整结构，

优化产业，提高竞争力”的战略思路，马

蔚华在表示支持的同时认为要付出很大的

代价。

再次是中国银行业的转型，传统的外

延式银行增长方式即将结束。近30年，中

国经济的高歌猛进有银行的贡献，经济的

高速增长反过来也给银行带来巨大需求。

但银行依赖利差收入和资本消耗型的增长

模式已经到头了。

变革与创新马蔚华指出，面对三大转型，中国商

业银行要想存活就要认清目前经营面临的

变化，从而做出变革与创新。

银行首先要面对的是经济放缓这一外

部环境的考验。金融正面临着资本性脱媒

和技术性脱媒，直接融资方式的兴起将逐

渐边缘化银行的间接融资方式。在银行体

系外有一个越来越发达的金融市场，包括

股票、债券、信托、理财、PE、VC、民

间借贷，这些市场产品更接近于市场的利

率，所以很多钱就从银行体系外流到金融

市场，这就是脱媒。前年银行的存款增长

幅度比前十年的平均数降低了将近10%，

这两年继续下降，如此一来，银行存款少

了贷款就少了，脱媒从负债和资产两个方

面着挑战银行。

中国的银行贷款占社会融资总量的比

例在去年降到60%以下，而这是美国80年

代的水平，美国现在已经小于30%。

马蔚华认为，中国的金融脱媒将继

续进行，除了资本脱媒，技术脱媒同样势

不可挡。技术脱媒是指支付领域银行的两

大功能，一个是融资中介，一个是支付平

台。银行不能完全适应诸多小额、零星的

便捷支付，网上、手机上直接支付更方

便，这种挑战对于银行是必然发生的，是

对银行一统天下局面的突破。

想明天的事市场需求的变化是银行必须面对的另

一个现实。马蔚华认为，未来移动金融、

消费金融、财富管理和养老金融都值得商

业银行重视。

消费者对财富管理的多样需求也在

增强。单纯的银行存款不再具有吸引力，

丰富的理财产品才能适应市场。马蔚华认

为，消费信贷、养老金融、跨境金融和移

动金融等都是银行的新机遇，在转型中的

中国商业银行有非常大的发展空间。

马蔚华表示，金融要想创新，领导

要“想明天的事”，招商银行当年“想得

早一点”带来了中国信用卡的诞生。招商

银行原本制定了8年信用卡计划，结果第

四年便开始盈利，而且40%的收益来自利

息。当初没人会想到中国人可以学会消费

和透支，而且中国的透支人群和西方市场

相同，主要是有钱人和年轻人。

招商银行又在“想明天的事”，去年

制定了消灭信用卡的目标。马蔚华认为，

移动支付不可逆转，在未来支付功能将完

全嵌入手机终端或SIM卡中，而招商银行

在做的正是顺应转型需求、开展金融创

新。

August 2013 35

A new free trade zone could carry the city to 2020

Shanghai’s free trade zone

The “Shanghai 2020” plan to

make China’s largest city into

a global financial center has

appeared ever less achievable in recent

months. The somewhat ambiguous

goal with a not-so-distant deadline has

been battered by the poor performance

of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and a

moratorium on IPOs that could con-

tinue for longer than expected.

The government has also made little

headway on developing a platform in

Shanghai for yuan financial products,

another component of the 2020 plan.

The ambitions for the city may

have found a new lifeline in the free

trade zone that was announced in early

July. The plan will turn three areas

in Shanghai’s Pudong district into a

microcosm of reform. The directive

reportedly came straight from Premier

Li Keqiang’s office, adding weight to

the announcement.

Shanghai’s free trade zone will be

the first of its kind in China. The pilot

will promote the liberalization of inter-

est rates and the free conversion of

the yuan, two long-delayed reforms at

the heart of the country’s transition

toward a full market economy.

It will also set up tax-friendly facili-

ties and promote innovation in finan-

cial products in an already bustling

area that supported a trade volume

worth US$100 billion last year.

In the zoneIn general, the guidelines for the pilot

zone are vague, which could give offi-

cials opportunities to fudge on imple-

menting the full scope of the plan.

What’s more, the country has a mixed

record in guiding announced experi-

mental zones into economic success

stories.

Without a doubt, the Shenzhen

Special Economic Zone that opened in

1980 has been China’s premier reform

experiment, transforming a fishing vil-

lage into a global center for trade and

manufacturing in under three decades.

Not all of these efforts have been

so successful. The SEZ in the city of

Shantou, which launched the same

year in Guangdong province, has been

far less successful. Similar zones with

preferential tax treatment in Yantai in

Shandong province and Lianyungang

in Jiangsu province have remained rel-

atively unknown since they opened in

1984.

Fast forward almost 30 years to Chi-

na’s latest reform pilots in Shenzhen’s

Qianhai district and the Zhejiang city

of Wenzhou, and some of the prob-

lems with zone experiments become

more apparent.

Investment into Qianhai, a 15

square-kilometer piece of reclaimed

land in Shenzhen, has been slow. The

zone, where yuan that has been circu-

lated offshore can easily be reinvested

within its boundaries, was launched in

June 2012. Earlier this year, it appeared

that investors were still waiting on

solid financial infrastructure before

putting money into business there.

In the case of Wenzhou, the

reforms announced late last year foster

a regulated market for private lend-

ing to small and medium compa-

nies that desperately needed capital.

Although regulators allowed the city

to construct a regulatory framework

for private lending, they neglected to

COVER STORY

August 201336

liberalize interest rates, rendering the

reform toothless. Local regulators also

lacked the expertise to see the measure

through.

Official attentionThere are a few reasons why Shanghai

has a better chance of succeeding. For

one, the city already has a talented pool

of financial professionals who will be

able to implement some of the pilot’s

key aspects. Logistically, it has one of

the best-equipped ports in the world.

The government has also specifi-

cally noted a plan to liberalize interest

rates in the zone. Policymakers have

hinted at this before. Reformers say it’s

necessary. But this is the first time a

location has been identified for such a

loosening of government control.

Perhaps most important of all, Li

Keqiang, China’s No. 2 leader, sup-

ports the experiment.

The early success of Shenzhen is

often attributed to support from some

of the country’s most powerful players

at the time, including Deng Xiaoping

and the father of current President Xi

Jinping, Xi Zhongxun.

The Shanghai free trade zone is one

of the first manifestations of Premier

Li’s plans to remake the Chinese econ-

omy. He reportedly even had to fight

opposition from some of the country’s

top banking and securities regulators

to get the zone fully approved.

With this in mind, the Shanghai

experiment’s success is central to

ensuring the credibility of the new

administration. The significance far

exceeds the Shanghai 2020 plan.

The pilot is a model for what China

as a whole could look like in the future,

and an early hint at what the Xi-Li duo

might have planned for the country.

Boring is reassuring at top-level fi nance policy event

The Lujiazui forum

When Chinese financial

wonks – still predomi-

nantly Shanghai born or

politically bred – returned to the city

for the 2013 Lujiazui Forum, it was

hardly a triumphant homecoming.

The annual event rounds up top

financial officials as well as leaders

within the finance and banking indus-

try for one of the most important

finance policy discussions each year.

The forum kicked off with a speech

from Tu Guangshao, a vice mayor of

Shanghai, declaring that much of the

pomp would be cut from the event,

including opening and closing ceremo-

nies and a formal banquet.

Those looking for more exciting

fare than financial leaders’ eating hab-

its might have been disappointed. The

manicured speeches of such leaders are

generally not designed for major policy

announcements.

For example, Bank of China Presi-

dent Li Lihui said he hopes that Chi-

na’s renminbi will be fully convertible

in 10 to 12 years, an incredibly con-

servative statement as economists and

others call for it to happen far sooner.

Still, the event generated a trickle

of wire-service-worthy stories. Among

the more interesting revelations was

that the New York Stock Exchange is

working with China to launch its long-

talked-about international board. The

board, originally set to launch in 2010

to allow foreign firms to list, has been

in limbo for years with officials regu-

larly saying it will launch soon.

Perhaps what is most striking about

this year’s conference is how closely it

reflects trends in China's economy.

After the cash crunch sent markets

into turmoil, the event proved a well-

timed opportunity for financial leaders

to demonstrate that they have the reins

of the financial system well in hand.

Shang Fulin, chairman of the Chi-

nese Banking Regulatory Commis-

sion, stressed that there is enough cash

in the financial system, even if some

banks weren't managing liquidity well.

The boring nature of other leader’s

remarks may actually be an effort to

reassure the market. Leaders sent the

message that beyond the shock to the

interbank market, gradual reforms will

still prevail in the financial industry.

While politics and finance are

inextricably intertwined in China,

it’s important to remember that the

forum was predominantly a meeting of

businessmen. The mostly male cohort

are in the business of using money to

make more money. In public, they

may settle for austere buffet lunches,

but more privately they amass lavish

amounts of wealth.

Those looking for evidence need

look no farther than Agricultural Bank

Vice Chairman Zhang Yun’s remark

that private banking for wealthy indi-

viduals may just be the next engine

of growth for financial institutions.

“The small platform of private banking

could even leverage the restructuring

of the whole banking sector,” Zhang

said.

August 2013 37

股权投资大浪淘沙真正具有高风险的时代已然到来文 | 晗军

在国内外经济处于下行风险的环境

中，中国股权投资市场去年经历了

成长的阵痛，而渐趋明朗的新政策及改革

方向传递了稳增长的经济走势。随着行业

监管力度加大，机构投资者崛起，多样化

的退出模式，本土市场的优化、专业化、

品牌化渐成股权投资市场的大趋，今年成

为中国股权投资市场稳增长的回升之年。

清科集团创始人、董事长兼CEO倪

正东介绍，今年上半年，VC/PE在募、

投、退三方面都经历了低谷。清科私募通

数据显示，投资行业上半年募资额为78

亿美元，与去年相比下降了57.6%。投

资案例为516例，跟去年同期相比下降了

45.2%，与2011年比降幅约为70%。退

出方面，上半年通过IPO退出的案例为13

例，而去年同期是174例。倪正东特别指

出，创投基金的资本存量首次下降，出现

负增长。

“我们第一次出现了入不敷出。中国

的VC/PE正在经历去掉光环，展现真实的

过程，行业正在经历洗牌淘汰和兴衰。有

一些前几年十分风光的基金有可能面临难

以继续募资的困境。”倪正东说道，“美

国曾有观点认为，未来可能有40%的基金

难以再募集到新的基金，在中国也同样存

在这种情况，中国的VC/PE需要更加精耕

细作，需要更多反思和锻炼。”

跳跃式增长中国是目前世界上经济增长 快的国

家之一，随着市场经济体系的不断完善，

资本市场的发展也在平稳前进，私募股权

基金行业在中国进入了飞速发展的阶段，

并且已成为世界上 具活力的新兴私募股

权基金市场。

私募股权基金于1946年起源于美

国，迄今历经60余年。随着经济的发展，

私募股权基金的投资领域、参与的投资机

构及人员、基金规模不断扩大，私募股权

基金已成为继银行贷款、IPO之后 具潜

力的融资手段。据英国研究机构Preqin公

布的 新数据，截至2012年末，全球私募

基金的管理资本量已高达3.2万亿美元，是

仅次于银行业和IPO的世界第三大融资市

场，也是发达国家未上市公司 重要的融

资手段。

中国 早的私募股权投资机构出现在

1986年，当时政府为了促进科技成果的生

产力转化而专门设立了中国新技术创业投

资公司，成为中国 早的创业投资机构。

随着中国经济快速发展和国民财富迅速增

加，私募基金市场规模不断扩大，本土

VC/PE机构如深圳创新、鼎晖、弘毅等纷

纷设立，一批国外著名的股权投资机构如

IDG基金、KKR、黑石、高盛、凯雷、红

杉资本等也进入中国。根据清科集团旗下

私募通统计，目前活跃于中国市场的VC/

PE机构已由1995年的10家增至2012年的

逾6000家，完成了跳跃式增长。

2007年至2012年，中外创投及私募

股权投资机构可投资于中国大陆的资本总

量逐年增长，年均增长率30.1%，2012年

创投及私募股权投资机构可投资于中国大

陆的资本总量是2007年的3.15倍。2009

年以前，外币基金是中国VC/PE市场的主

要角色，由于中国经济的高速发展，可投

资本存量在2008年迎来了跨越式增长。但

随着金融危机在世界范围内蔓延，外币基

金的募资速度减缓， 终导致2009年PE

可投资本量增速急剧下滑。2009年以后，

受益于人民币基金的迅速发展，境内LP成

为主要的募资来源，VC/PE可投资本量迎

来了连续两年的快速增长。自2011年下半

年以来，中国VC/PE募资市场整体遇冷，

行业陷入低谷，LP投资谨慎，2012年募

资大幅下滑，导致2012年可投资本量的增

长幅度成为2010年以来的低点。

封面故事

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

100.0%

0.0%

-100.0%

-200.0%

-300.0%

-400.0%2007

53,541

108,635 111,388

168,389 169,259160,869

102.9%

2.5%

20.7% 19.7% 4.7% 0.5%

134,410

2009 20112008 2010 2012 2013Q1

53,541

108,635 111,388

168,389 169,259160,869

134,410

2 5%

20.7% 19.7% 4.7% 0.5%

来源：私募通 2013.06

可投资本量（US$M） 增长率

2007-2013年Q1 VC/PE可投资于中国大陆的资本存量比较

August 201338

发展四阶段VC/PE这一概念真正在中国发展不过

十余年之久，但随着经济稳定增长、资本

市场不断完善，该市场已经进入高速发展

阶段。根据过往十余年中的宏观经济、政

策环境、活跃机构数量变迁，中国创业投

资暨私募股权投资市场的发展大致可分为

以下几个阶段：

1995年至2000年是中国VC/PE市场

发展的萌芽阶段，市场中仅有少数几家机

构表现活跃，外资机构中有IDG资本等开

始探路中国市场，“科教兴国”战略及创

业板筹划工作启动的消息也推动了部分早

期本土投资机构的建设。然而，由于当时

投资者对股权投资认识有限，参与投资的

动力和热情不足，政策环境不健全，企业

股权结构不合理，市场发展受到制约。在

此期间，活跃于中国境内的创业投资暨私

募股权投资机构由10家增长至100家。

2001年，北京市《有限合伙管理办

法》《关于设立外商投资创业企业的暂行

规定》颁布实施，国内股权投资相关政策

建设起步；2002年《指导外商投资方向规

定》和《外商投资产业指导目录》，吸引

及利用外资政策步上新台阶；2004年，

深圳中小企业板正式启动，进一步为股权

投资机构境内退出打通了渠道；2005年，

《国家外汇管理局关于境内居民通过境外

特殊目的公司融资及返程投资外汇管理有

关问题的通知》，重新开启外资创投投资

境外注册中国企业以及海外红筹上市的大

门，股权投资政策环境逐步完善。

在此环境下，中国私募股权市场开始

进入蓬勃发展阶段。截止至2005年末，活

跃于中国境内的VC/PE机构增至500家，

其中主要领导者仍以外资机构为主，包

括红杉资本、IDG资本、现赛富亚洲的前

身软银亚洲以及凯鹏华盈中国基金等；与

此同时，随着政策环境的完善，包括深创

投、深圳达晨创业投资有限公司、上海永

宣创业投资管理有限公司以及联想投资等

机构在内的一批本土机构开始崭露头角。

2006年至2010年，中国VC/PE市场

政策环境开始完善，例如，《创业投资企

业管理暂行办法》《关于创业投资引导基

金规范设立与运作指导意见》，以及 2007

年修订后的《合伙企业法》，形成了对股

权投资行业的初步管理规范；2007年，

券商直投试点启动，部分获得试点资格的

证券公司开始以自有资金开展股权投资业

务；2008年全国社保基金获准投资未上

市企业股权；2009年创业板开闸、IPO重

启，均为股权投资发展带来了利好消息。

2008年全球金融危机爆发，境外资

本市场表现低迷，外资机构募资、投资

及退出活动均受重创，而本土机构则在国

民经济稳步增长的宏观经济环境下乘势而

起。本土机构投资者群体随着政策的放开

进一步扩容，且在高投资回报的吸引下，

民间资本参与股权投资热情高涨，中国创

业投资暨私募股权市场开始进入高速发展

阶段。截止至2010年底，中国市场中的

VC/PE投资机构激增至2500多家。

2011年以来，随着各路资本的融

入，中国股权投资市场持续高速发展，但

弄潮其中的各投资机构均面临着来自外部

与内部的双重考验。从外部环境来看，首

先，业内广泛关注的相关规范制度的建设

仍旧滞后，外部监管仍不完善。其次，募

集狂潮之下，投资压力随之而来，项目竞

争日益加剧、估值推高，对基金管理者的

投资决策判断和节奏把握形成考验。从内

部来看，新设立基金的管理机构中不乏成

立不久的新机构，其中亦有机构急于在市

场发展热潮中分一杯羹，并未建立规范化

管理机制，没有形成完善的业务流程，例

如：在投资流程中存在着尽职调查及投资

决策草率、风险控制不足等问题，导致投

资人风险加剧。

大资管时代除面临重重考验外，中国VC/PE市场

也迎来诸多发展利好。今年2月，证监会发

布《资产管理机构开展公募证券投资基金

管理业务暂行规定》，明确表示符合条件

的股权投资管理机构、创业投资管理机

VC/PE市场迎来诸多发展利好

August 2013 39

封面故事

构等其他资产管理机构可以开展公开募

集证券投资基金管理业务。这对于那些意

欲延伸产业链的VC/PE机构而言，无疑是

一则重大政策利好。2012年以来，监管层

陆续出台多项措施，大力发展资产管理混

业经营，“大资管”模式日渐清晰，对于

中国大金融市场化而言，具有深远影响。

深圳市创新投资集团有限公司董事

长靳海涛认为，中国中小企业目的转型升

级受到了风险承受能力不足、创新基础薄

弱、创新资金不足、企业运作不规范、缺

乏资源整合能力和创新意识不强等因素的

制约。另外，从VC/PE行业来看，应该鼓

励大型VC机构开展资产管理业务。

靳海涛指出，“大资管时代”已经来

临，并且是大势所趋。6月公布的新《基金

法》也同意VC、PE开展公募证券投资基

金业务。“我们应该发展新的基金形态，

特别是进入到二级市场，没有一个好的二

级市场就没有好的一级市场，没有好的一

级市场就没有好的创新创业，没有创新创

业也就没有中国的未来，所以二级市场也

非常重要。”他说道。

高风险降临目前，中国创业投资暨私募股权市场

仍处在深度调整之中。募资难成为2012

年以来VC/PE市场面临的 大难题，不

仅一些中小机构难以为继，不少大牌基金

同样存在基金无法如期完成募集的困境。

在这种情况下，机构也暂缓了新基金的

设立。

以本土个人LP为主力的人民币基金募

资乏力，投向中国的美元基金募集同样不

容乐观。究其原因，清科研究中心分析师

罗玉认为，美国金融市场对中国的宏观经

济形势有所顾虑；之前的中概股被质疑财

务造假也没有得到很好地解决；且目前中

概股在二级市场的表现并不好，所以拖累

了不少已投资中国公司的基金的回报率。

目前欧美的经济形势不容乐观，这样的大

环境下，LP减少对中国市场VC/PE基金

投资，从而导致美元基金在国内募资比较

艰难。

V C / P E 机 构 受 到 募 资 渠 道 继 续 收

紧、IPO遭遇残酷“零封”、大环境继续

疲软等诸多困难的考验。在经历了“全民

PE”的野蛮生长阶段后，VC/PE机构也

开始冷静对待投资，不再一味追求Pre-

IPO的短期收益，而是去仔细斟酌优质项

目，在真正帮助企业成长的同时获得投资

收益。同时，面对退出渠道的日渐狭窄，

并购退出的方式愈发受到投资机构的青

睐，“为了上市而上市”的资本运作现象

得到抑制。总体而言，VC/PE投资向早期

化转变，投资周期向饱满化发展，市场整

体投资理念逐步走向成熟。另外，在政策

环境方面，随着未来私募股权基金行业的

监管主体和模式的进一步明确，VC/PE行

业将在市场约束、行业自律和适度监管的

体系中走向更加健康的发展方向。

达晨创投创始合伙人、董事长刘昼表

示，创投的发展离不开经济形势的走向，

创投界人士当前的“惶恐”心态与中国的

经济形势、资本市场的走势两个因素有

关。“二级市场的走势必然会影响一级市

场投资的态势，投资人必须谋变。真正具

有风险的创投时代已经到来了。创投行业

在未来的几年中，将面临着投资早期化、

资产全产业化等趋势。”他说道。

大资管时代来临，投资人必须谋变

August 201340

Likonomics 101: A few facts and ample speculation

Chinaʼs reform school

Li Keqiang is running a gaunt-

let of economic indicators and

fledgling reforms. The premier

is ducking inflation, vaulting unem-

ployment and shouldering a heavy set

of growth statistics as he tries to break

from China’s foundering development

model.

It will be a miracle if he doesn’t trip

on one of the numerous hazards along

the way.

Behind closed doors, new leaders

are thought to have spent their first

four months in power hammering

out the parameters for how to run

the world’s second-largest economy.

The country’s new approach to eco-

nomic policy has been variously called

“Likonomics” and “Li Keqiang Put”

(a call back to Federal Reserve chair-

men Ben Bernanke and Alan Green-

span) because Li Keqiang as premier

is charged with managing the econ-

omy. Chinese media has dubbed the

58-year-old’s attempt to transition the

economy as the “Li Keqiang interval,”

or a time of rational policymaking.

Li has hard numbers guiding him

this year: Keep annual GDP growth

at 7.5% in 2013; hold inflation below

3.5%; stay urban unemployment at

4.6% and create more than 9 million

new jobs.

If that sounds too simplistic, he’ll

also need to decrease investment’s con-

tribution to GDP figures and tackle

credit growth – both promise to be

lasting threats to the economic transi-

tion – and push harder on regulators

to reform China’s banking and securi-

ties markets.

To the floorThe essence of questionably named

Likonomics isn’t in the numbers

themselves. The term appears to have

emerged from investment banks and

is far from official. Currently, it’s a

catchall for describing Li’s approach to

economic policy, in part based on his

past actions and statements.

Given opaque Chinese politics,

theories on Likonomics also include a

heavy dose of speculation about what

is happening behind the scenes.

Li’s strategy is to permit slower

GDP growth today in order to push

through substantial reforms that will

benefit the economy in the future, Lu

Ting at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

says.

The question now is where Li’s bot-

tom line for growth lies. The premier

said in July that he would not allow

GDP growth to fall below a “floor,”

which he neglected to define.

Nevertheless, this shows that Li

may be willing to appease critics for

the time being by supporting higher

headline growth in order to “buy time

for building his team and designing

reform strategy,” as Lu states.

What this means for the rest of 2013

is that Li may try to keep economic

growth on the floor – as low as it can

go without drawing harsh political

backlash – while forging a stronger,

more sustainable growth model.

That plan will likely involve a more

fine-tuned stimulus as analysts agree

that the central government will not

COVER STORY

August 2013 41

unleash a massive stimulus as it has

in the past.

Li’s cabinet said the government

would support the IT sector, clean

energy and public housing. Analysts

will watch carefully how much cash is

spent in these sectors.

China watchers may yet be sur-

prised by stronger-than-expected

growth this year depending on these

measures, HSBC’s Qu Hongbin said

in a note, underlining Beijing’s past

willingness to print money and spend

its way out of a crisis. “Beijing has suf-

ficient ammunition (on both fiscal and

monetary fronts) to avert a hard land-

ing.”

‘New marching orders’Meanwhile, speculation about Li’s

approach to monetary policy is far

more rampant on account of a major

shock to the banking system in June.

Li’s role in the monetary maneuver is

unclear.

Now referred to as a “cash crunch,”

money drained out of the system

because of several factors, including

the typical liquidity squeeze in advance

of holidays such as the Dragon Boat

Festival and demand for cash rising as

corporate taxes came due.

But the People’s Bank of China

(PBoC) refused to step in with more

redbacks when the country’s banks ran

low on cash, causing interbank lend-

ing rates to soar. The central bank

eventually intervened but not with-

out admonishing commercial bankers

for poor lending practices and leading

Chinese investors into a panic on the

country’s stock exchanges.

Some analysts have said the PBoC’s

hesitation may have been a method

of punishing irresponsible lenders.

Others have posited that it was a ploy

to expose the bad practices of the last

decade of leadership. Some say the

original squeeze on liquidity was unin-

tentional and the central bank’s inepti-

tude led to the tardy response.

Yale professor and infamous China

bull Stephen Roach attributed the

banking standoff to “new marching

orders” that Li and President Xi Jin-

ping have handed down to regula-

tors such as Zhou Xiaochuan at the

PBoC.

With no way to know how the

crunch came about, a directive straight

from the top to tighten liquidity would

at least be well in line with Li’s pledge

to rein in credit growth that has surged

during the past four years. The move

also reinforces the idea that he’s willing

to let the economy suffer temporarily

in order to stimulate reform later.

From the topSpeculation on fiscal and monetary

policy adds a degree of uncertainty

to the real direction of reform. There

are, however, signs of concrete, albeit

fledgling, reforms in the banking and

securities industries.

Chinese business news service

Caixin reported on a slew of poten-

tial reforms in the works for Chi-

COVER STORY

August 201342

nese banks. Those included building

a depository insurance system and

stronger bankruptcy laws for banks.

“Yes, steps are being taking to make

things better for international investors

in the China market,” said Jim McCaf-

ferty, co-head of equities research at

CIMB in Hong Kong, including the

expansion of a foreign investment

program. The new head of the China

Securities Regulatory Commission,

Xiao Gang, has been given credit for

the changes, but new securities policy

can still be traced to the highest reach-

es of the government.

“At the end of the day, the way that

the Chinese authorities work is that it

all goes to the top,” McCafferty said.

Interestingly enough, Li may be more

pro-reform than financial regulators.

Hong Kong-based paper South China

Morning Post reported that Li fought

for a plan to open a free trade zone in

Shanghai against heavy opposition from

the oversight committees of the CSRC

and China’s banking regulator.

The bad news lastBoth domestic and international

observers have praised Li’s struggle

for reform. But it has yet to be seen if

these efforts will go below the surface

to penetrate some of China’s deeper

structural problems. Non-performing

loans at local banks, as well as shadow

banking, still pose a significant threat

to the country’s financial system.

Runaway credit growth has slowed

somewhat. Month-on-month growth

of total social financing (TSF), China’s

broadest measure of credit, fell to the

lowest point in more than a year in

June, with unofficial lending known as

shadow banking notably contracting.

But analysts highlighted that, despite

the slowdown, TSF had still grown by

more than 30% year-on-year.

This leads to questions over how

much policymakers will need to tight-

en liquidity if they truly want to bring

down credit growth. Deutsche Bank

recently estimated the size of China’s

shadow banking at about US$3.4 tril-

lion, accounting for roughly 40% of

GDP.

Investment as a component of

growth is just as troubling. Of the 7.5%

GDP growth announced for the sec-

ond quarter, investment composed

5.9 percentage points, up from 2.3

percentage points in the first quarter.

These figures fly in the face of what

experts say are the most important

aspects of real change to the economy,

namely weening China off of ineffi-

cient investment.

“This is clearly a bad news for Chi-

na’s leaders, as they have pledged to

shift the economy away from invest-

ment,” Wang Qinwei, a London-based

China economist at Capital Economics,

told China Economic Review in an

email. “It would be more comfortable if

China’s slowdown was being accompa-

nied by a shift in the drivers of growth

from investment to consumption.”

That part of Li’s plan – big-picture,

sweeping reform to China’s growth

model – has yet to materialize.

August 2013 43

抑制产能过剩国内新能源产业盲目扩张现象严重文 | 晗军

中国与欧盟就光伏贸易争端经过谈判

已达成解决方案，涉及到有关中国

输欧光伏产品的价格协议。

中欧光伏产品贸易争端是中欧贸易史

上涉案金额 大的贸易摩擦案件，是中欧

经贸关系中的重要议题之一。此前，欧委

会宣布，欧盟从6月6日起对产自中国的光

伏产品征收11.8%的临时反倾销税，如果

欧中双方未能在8月6日前达成妥协方案，

届时反倾销税率将升至47.6%。因为此次

谈判结果对中欧双方意义重大。

政策扶持光伏产业健康发展，同时

抑制产能盲目扩张。6月14日，国务院常

务会议定调了光伏产业扶持政策。7月15

日，扶持政策细则出台，中国政府网正式

发布了《国务院关于促进光伏产业健康发

展的若干意见》。新政策对光伏发电装机

目标进行了大幅提高，有意扩大国内市场

的需求。

“面对中欧光伏谈判关键期，欧盟

即将决定是否对中国光伏产品征收高达

47.6%的反倾销临时关税之际，此次《意

见》的推出也恰好对中国光伏产业注入了

一剂强心针。”清科研究中心分析师吴晗

瑄表示。

提升战略地位《意见》提出六大支持政策，支持

用户侧光伏应用、完善电价和补贴政策、

改进补贴资金管理、加大财税政策支持力

度、完善金融支持政策、完善土地支持政

策和建设管理。这是 近两年来国务院第

一次以光伏为命题出台的正式文件，有助

于提升光伏的战略地位。

电价和补贴政策是制约光伏行业发

展的 重要因素。《意见》首次明确提及

“对光伏电站，由电网企业按照国家规定

或招标确定的光伏发电上网电价与发电企

业按月全额结算；对分布式光伏发电，建

立由电网企业按月转付补贴资金的制度”

。并将上网电价及补贴的执行期限原则上

上调为20年。电价支付年限和支付模式的

明确，有利于提高光伏电站投资收益模型

的确定性和可靠性。

《意见》中提出对分布式光伏发电自

发自用电量免收可再生能源电价附加等针

对电量征收的政府性基金，企业研发费用

符合有关条件的，可按照税法规定在计算

应纳税所得额时加计扣除等。企业符合条

件的兼并重组，可以按照现行税收政策规

定，享受税收优惠政策。税收优惠政策也

能吸引来更多追求资金进行光伏电站的投

资和运营。者两项内容均有助于解决目前

光伏装机持续增长所面临的资金来源和退

话题

中欧就光伏贸易争端经过谈判达成解决方案

August 201344

出渠道不足的两大难题。

《意见》还就开拓光伏应用市场、加

快产业结构调整和技术进步、规范产业发

展秩序、完善并网管理和服务提出明确要

求。针对上游制造环节，《意见》提出要

利用“市场倒逼”机制，在大幅提高装机

目标的同时，加快企业兼并重组，淘汰产

品质量差、技术落后的生产企业，培育一

批具有较强技术研发能力和市场竞争力的

龙头企业。保持光伏产品在国际市场的合

理份额，有利于对外贸易和投融资的合作

取得新的进展。

引发积聚效应在经历了2012年投资和上市情况的

整体下滑后，新能源行业在2013年终于将

有机会走出困顿已久的冬天。标杆电价、

上网标准的确立，新能源汽车的大力推

广，多项政策的倾斜为新能源行业的寒冬

带来了一丝暖意。值此，清科研究中心推

出《2013中国新能源行业投资研究报告》

，对新能源行业中的政策环境、产业链、

市场现状、竞争格局等进行了全面研究。

并从多角度分析了2006-2012年我国新能

源行业投资、并购、上市的市场情况，归

纳预判了未来新能源行业的发展趋势和投

资机会。

“政策支持引发积聚效应，光伏、

风电产业大规模发展。”吴晗瑄表示。近

年来，在目前全球经济衰退的大背景下，

发达经济体希望通过新能源发展转变经济

形态，中国政府也意图通过新能源弯道超

车，陆续推出一系列扶持政策。从2005年

到2010年，制定新能源发展目标或相关政

策的国家和地区就近乎翻番，且大多数国

家采取了多种激励政策。目前，新能源行

业的政策环境正不断完善，已有的多项配

套政策包括规划、价格、补贴、财税、产

业指导等。

投资急速下滑据 全 球 高 科 技 领 域 专 业 行 业 协 会

SEMI China发布的一份研究报告则预

测，2013年全球太阳能光伏组件市场产

能将过剩20%。亚洲光伏行业尤其是中国

市场将加速整合。而2009年开始，发改

委等部门推出《关于抑制部分行业产能过

剩和重复建设引导产业健康发展的若干意

见》，也明确表示风能制造业存在投资过

热的现象。

上述《意见》指出，中国光伏产业

仍存在产能严重过剩等问题。需要抑制产

能盲目扩张，严格控制新上单纯扩大产能

的多晶硅、光伏电池及组件项目。加快淘

汰能耗高、物料循环利用不完善、环保不

达标的多晶硅产能，在电力净输入地区严

格控制建设多晶硅项目。另外，此次《意

见》并没有公布电价补贴细则，吴晗瑄预

计光伏电价补贴政策有望在8月份出台。

“产能过剩现象持续，投资市场恐继

续低谷运行。”吴晗瑄表示。从投资数量

情况看，2006-2012年，中国新能源领

域已披露的投资案例累积272起。自2009

年起，新能源领域进入快速发展期，当年

投资数量超过2006年全年投资数量的一

倍。2010和2011年的投资数量更是维持

在近几年投资热点的顶峰，达到在2007年

新能源领域出现小幅增长的基础上再次翻

番的热闹景象。但到了2012年，由于国家

经济环境较为低迷，新能源领域的投资热

度也出现急速下滑现象，一举回落至2007

年水平，降幅接近50%。

在投资案例金额方面，2006-2012

年，中国新能源领域披露投资金额的案例

数有221起，共涉及投资金额57.96亿美

元。2006-2008年，投资金额与投资数量

呈反向相关性。2009年，投资金额随投资

数量的大幅增涨，总涉及金额达到历史新

高，为15亿美元，增幅高达1.5倍。2010

和2011年虽然总投资数量相似，但总投资

金额却大不相同。2010年在2009年投资

数量再次攀升的基础上，投资金额却大幅

下降，降幅接近45%。2011年继续维持历

史顶峰的投资数量额，投资金额终于大幅

增长，涨幅接近80%，总金额接近2009

年的历史 高位水平。2012年，随着市场

状况的总体下滑，投资金额与投资数量的

线性相关性恢复正常，数量的减少让总涉

及金额也大幅下降，回归至2008年水平。

“各领域问题重重，新能源行业期待

下一次发展机遇。经过近10年来的政策扶

持，国内光伏、风电产业产能过剩现象严

重，是行业亟需解决的问题。一旦发电经

济性达成后，新能源将成为无需政府补贴

的市场化产业。”吴晗瑄表示，“核能的

利用效率虽高但安全性问题还有待检验，

同时民营企业想要进入目前还存在无法跨

越的门槛。而生物质能和新能源汽车或将

成为新能源行业新一轮发展机遇。”新能源产业存在严重的产能过剩问题

August 2013 45

Nobel Laureate Michael Spence on managing China’s reform

Switching growth models

Few indicators better point to

China’s faltering growth model

than recent export figures.

Already slowing export growth in pre-

vious months turned into an outright

drop in the value of exports in June,

according to data released on July 10.

Analysts had been pessimistic about

global demand for Chinese goods, pro-

jecting a 3.7% gain compared to June

of last year, according to a Bloomberg

survey. But the actual data was even

worse, as shipments recorded a real

decline of 3.1%.

But China luckily won’t need to rely

on high export growth forever. The

country is rapidly upgrading its engines

for growth, and some signs of that are

already in plain sight, according to

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in

economics and a professor at New York

University’s Stern School of Business.

Spence spoke with China Economic

Review in Shanghai in late June.

On some fronts, especially in educa-

tion, China has forged ahead rapidly,

creating many of the conditions neces-

sary to push its manufacturing sector

into higher value-added areas, Spence

said.

In other areas, such as reform in

state-owned enterprise, the govern-

ment has been sluggish to act and has

hidden many of the low-return invest-

ments of the last decade behind other

areas of high growth.

There have been some ripples in China’s economic growth this

year. What do you make of slow-ing GDP and export figures and the country’s attempt to reform its growth model?Standing back for a minute, there are

really two sets of issues, if you listen

to the investment community. There’s

a set of short-run things – which are

normally referred to as imbalances –

that I suppose in principle could upset

the apple cart if left unattended. I’ll

stick to the second, which is the [long-

run] transformation, or evolution,

of the growth model. Of course what

drives this is not an accident. When

[a country] start to rise rapidly above

US$3,000 per capita income, things on

the tradable side of the economy that

were the primary catalysts for growth

– those things start to shift around.

On the negative side, one of the things

that will happen is that after much of

this rather labor-intensive stuff starts

shifting around within the country and

whatnot, it’s eventually going to go

[away]. And that shift is already well

under way. It gets replaced under mar-

ket forces – but with supporting poli-

cies – by higher value-added activities.

How much progress has China made toward correcting this imbalance in its economy?That structural change doesn’t occur

overnight, but it’s well under way and

the Chinese economy is quite flexible.

The rising wages in coastal areas are a

double-edged sword. They drive the

margins down and force these [labor-

intensive industries] out. [The transi-

tion up the value chain is driven] by

people with higher levels of human

capital being attracted into these high-

er value-added activities.

Can you put your finger on some of the positive changes we’re see-ing today?You see it everywhere. You see it in the

mix of the export sector, like in Lon-

don at the end of June, when Huawei

announced its own mobile phone. In

this way, Huawei will become a global

brand, following in the footsteps of the

Sonys and the Samsungs and whatnot

from many other countries. That’s an

important component of it. From a

government point of view basically,

there’s much less targeting [of certain

industries]. There’s a lot of market,

and there’s a very big ongoing invest-

ment in human capital and knowl-

edge and technology-based economy.

Q&A

Michael Spence

August 201346

You can have short-run imbalances

and have employment problems that

are short-run for college graduates –

we’re starting to see this a bit in China

now – and you can’t get the timing

of all this right. That is crucial. In the

course of this, the domestic economy

has much greater purchasing power

and they purchase much more inter-

esting things.

You mentioned human capi-tal? How efficient has China’s investment into education been during the past 10 years?There’s a very big expansion. Quality

lags a little bit and then catches up. But

this is, I would say, an area of strength

for China. It’s interesting because Chi-

na’s early growth model, if you com-

pare it with India, has lots of problems

now. India’s infrastructure stinks and

some of the elementary education is

pretty weak too, but higher education

came along early and helped support

trade in services, that element of the

economy. If you look at how the gov-

ernment spent money, China maybe in

the early days overspent on infrastruc-

ture and underspent on this, but early

on they figured out that the human

capital component is important. China

never really underspent on anything.

China had literacy rates that were way

above for any developing countries,

but if you looked at the number of

people going to college and stuff – sec-

ondary and tertiary education – it was

a little low ten years ago at a time when

the Chinese economy was evolving

really quickly. China has reversed that

pattern really rapidly.

Have you seen signs of reform in China’s state-owned enterprise sector?[The SOE] model eventually fails

because protection from competi-

tion damages dynamic efficiency and

innovation. That is understood, but

[Chinese policymakers] haven’t really

committed to doing anything about

it. A Westerner with that model would

say privatize it, but the Chinese are not

going to do that. And they’re not going

do it for a pretty good reason. They

stand back and take a macro view, and

they look at the Western economies

– particularly they look at the govern-

ment’s balance sheet. What do they

see? They see a lot of sovereign debt

and they see even larger non-debt lia-

bilities: pensions, healthcare, anything

that people have an entitlement to,

using the American term. And then

they look at the assets, and these guys

don’t even report the assets because

they don’t know what they are. But

whatever they are, they’re puny. So

they [Chinese policymakers] say,

“We’re not going to have a balance

sheet like that. We like this balance

sheet. We have US$3.5 trillion dol-

lars of reserves. We own 90% of a sec-

tor called state-owned enterprises that

dominates the fixed-assets part of the

economy. And while we may manage

these public assets in a different way,

we’re going to keep them. They help

us invest at high levels. They help us

buffer the economy against internal

and external shocks.” So on that, I’m

kinda on their side.

How can the government better manage these huge firms?Managing public assets well is a big

challenge. The normal pattern is to

screw up the economy by managing

them the wrong way. So they need

competition for the state-owned enter-

prises they probably should diversify

over time, slowly, the ownership of

these assets. This is a debate that is

going on right now and it’s one where

vested interests matter because the

state-owned enterprises aren’t going

to like this and they will argue that the

basis of the power of the state and the

party resides in part in this very big

participation in the economy.

August 2013 47

高端访谈

提升城市 打造地标新鸿基地产南中国总经理黄少媚女士谈佛山泷景

一座超大型城市综合体即将在广东佛

山市禅城区的新城核心区拔地而

起。禅城原名佛山镇，系中国古代四大名

镇之一，也是闻名于世的武术之乡。由新

鸿基地产投资开发的佛山泷景第一期住宅

将于今年正式推出，商业经营也将在2014

年陆续开展。

新鸿基地产已有四十多年发展历史，

自上世纪90年代进入内地市场，已在北

京、上海、广州、南京、杭州等城市投资

开发了众多的项目。近日，新鸿基地产南

中国总经理黄少媚女士接受本刊专访，畅

谈了佛山泷景的相关情况。

“佛山泷景投资将超过500亿元，计

划建设超过10年。”她接着表示，“佛山

泷景拥有核心的地段、优异的资源、出众

的前景和发展潜力，加上佛山市场也进入

了相对成熟的阶段，我们认为现在是适合

的机会，因而该项目成为新鸿基地产投资

的重点。”

问：新鸿基地产为何选择在佛山建

设大型城市综合体，此举与公司在中国内

地和珠三角地区的整体战略存在怎样的关

系？

答：新鸿基地产在佛山建设大型城

市综合项目，是实现公司“核心城市，核

心地标”的发展宗旨。目前发展的佛山泷

景，规划是佛山新城市中心组团的重要节

点。未来，一个汇聚优质写字楼、高端购

物广场、高星级酒店、时尚住宅的大型城

市综合体即将屹立于佛山新城北岸。

新鸿基地产在国内优先发展长三角、

珠三角、环渤海和成渝片区。珠三角城市

中，广州、佛山、中山、东莞都已经进

入，深圳、珠海等城市也是未来拓展方

向。目前的佛山泷景是新鸿基地产在内地

参与的 大规模项目。正是佛山城市发展

的巨大潜力，以及政府对城市建设的决心

和未来的前景，吸引了我们参与到这一规

模宏大的城市发展计划中来。

因此，佛山泷景是新鸿基地产布局珠

三角核心城市佛山的关键，也是符合企业

的长远投资策略的重要举措。在珠三角地

区这块战略版图上，优质项目能树立新鸿

基地产优秀品牌形象，实现在内地的稳健

发展。

问：相比广州、深圳和其他南方二线

城市，佛山的优势和吸引力在哪里？

答：新鸿基地产的内地发展选择在长

三角、珠三角、环渤海、成渝等经济发达

地区，第一轮扩张包括北京、上海、广州

等核心城市。如今，对二线城市的发展也

较为重视。

作为广东省第三大城市，佛山近年来

的发展突飞猛进，城市建设日新月异，加

之广佛一体化的利好，更坚定了企业投资

佛山的决心。政府对佛山的城市规划和建

设决心，以及房地产市场稳步发展的背景

下，佛山楼市将迎来全新的发展机遇，更

是吸引了新鸿基地产的加入。

问：请简单介绍佛山泷景的具体情况

和总体定位？

答：佛山泷景将建设大规模的城市综

合体，包括规模宏大的优质住宅社区、比

肩国际都市的城市商业地标、超甲级写字

楼、五星级酒店、配套丰富的中小学及多

样的体育、文化设施。这个规模达280万

平方米的城市中心功能区，承担城市的国

际经济文化交流重任，建造优质酒店、写

字楼等城市产业聚集所需设施，提供高端

商业服务，营造传统与现代交融的岭南都

市中心。

此外，新鸿基地产将充分利用佛山新

城一河两岸的景观资源及深厚的本土文化

背景，建设风情商业街、大型公共绿地和

拥有一线江景的精品住宅。同时，还会结

合佛山特色打造地标式建筑，提供完善的

生活配套设施，吸引更多先进人才。项目

落成后，将全面升级佛山城市价值，重新

定义广佛城市生活。

问：佛山正在开建的大型城市综合体

较多，佛山泷景如何避免同质化竞争？具

备哪些核心竞争力？

答：从2007年开始，佛山城市发展

就进入了城市更新阶段，中心城市已成为

佛山三年城市升级行动的一个重点。相对

于以往的单一的商住项目，这些城市综合

体，更能提升城市价值，发展商业、服务

和综合功能。通过这些升级服务，可以激

发本地的需求。发展优质的与城市共生共

融的综合体，可以快速提升城市面貌、促

进社会经济发展，无论对城市还是市民而

言，都有着良好的发展前景。

新鸿基地产拥有四十多年的商业发

展经验，会从城市运营的高度打造澜石项

目，既要延续岭南传统文化和佛山本地精

髓，也会挖掘佛山新城潜力和充分发挥澜

石资源优势，实现综合发展，做到传承文

黄少媚

August 201348

化，建设具有岭南特色的新城核心。本项

目 大的愿望是“提升城市”，打造当地

的地标建筑，促进国际化和融合产业发展

的高度。

50万平方米的商业物业规模加上220

万平方米的住宅物业规模，新鸿基地产对

打造岭南都市地标的高度前瞻性和积极

性，未来将引进一系列具有吸引力的高端

企业、品牌，丰富的服务和有力的产业增

长点，提供舒适的居住环境和全新的居住

体验；筑巢引凤，铸造起这个项目的核心

竞争力。

问：佛山泷景周边的规划配套、交通

情况如何？具备哪些区位优势？

答：佛山泷景位于佛山新城市中轴线

上，拥有核心的地段、优异的景观资源、

出众的前景和发展潜力。佛山市政府已将

澜石片区规划为佛山新城中心组团，周边

将建成地铁石湾站，佛山中央公园等大型

公共配套设施。

在区位上，澜石片区具有重要的战略

发展意义。澜石片区是广佛联系的一个重

要节点，坐落在广佛地铁延长线上，是广

州、佛山通往顺德，乃至珠三角西线城市

的门户。佛山未来也规划一条轨道交通，

由本区域通往珠三角的客运交通枢纽－广

州南站。澜石处于广佛一小时生活圈内，

而未来，也会处于广州到香港的一小时生

活圈里面。同时，澜石位于在新旧城市中

心区的联结位置，是禅城老城和佛山新城

核心区的重要组成部分，坐落于东平河北

岸，拥有佛山城市中心区 稀缺、 高价

值的滨江景观资源。

问：作为城市改造项目，可能会遇到

哪些难点？如何规避和克服？

答：新鸿基地产有多年城市改造经

验。城市升级做得好，需要多方面的支持

和配合，既需要开发商有战略前瞻性的考

虑和投入，同时需要当地政府的全力支持

配合，更需要在开发过程中在本地文化中

融入勇于求新的尝试。

城市改造项目需要对当地文化有很

深的了解，开发商必须清楚地知道自己想

要做什么，当地政府要做什么，当地居民

需要什么，然后将这几种力量完美地结合

好。每个项目的情况不同，难点也不同，

对于每一个参与城市改造项目的开发商而

言，传承本地文化和城市底蕴是工程中

困难、 关键的地方。新鸿基地产已经在

过往许多成功项目中积累下丰富的经验。

请大家拭目以待。

问：地产项目招商竞争激烈。佛山泷

景国际商业中心将采用何种招商方式？希

望吸引或已拥有了哪些优质的商家资源？

主要客户群体将来自哪里？

答：近年来，地产项目招商状况的

确日趋激烈，但也让新鸿基地产的招商优

势突显。投资者要挑选市场中的 优质物

业，有品牌、质量的大型发展商便会在这

个时候获得更显著的优势。新鸿基地产相

信，优质的产品与服务，强大的品牌是该

项目的国际商业中心招商成功的基础。

新鸿基地产拥有世界一流零售品牌的

租户资源，因此倾向于预租招商，无需通

过中介代理即可达到理想效果。我们致力

于专注发展高端商业项目，为更多城市营

造高尚的商务及休闲环境，招商定位国际

一线品牌，客户群体来自于国内外知名企

业、品牌，打造成为区内 全面的大型高

尚潮流购物热点。

问：佛山泷景将采取怎样的经营策

略？

答：新鸿基地产多年来发展出一套成

熟的经营模式—平衡物业销售及租金收

入的适合比例，即同时发展销售住宅物业

及出租地标商业项目，使租赁收入与销售

收入基本持平。这一经营模式既能为公司

提供稳健财务和投资策略，更有利于商业

的长期稳健运营。

主力发展商业地产是新鸿基地产的经

营策略，坚持持有地标商业物业，超甲级

写字楼、酒店将采取统一经营模式，以达

到平衡经营、保持充裕资金流动的目的。

江景住宅将采取随行就市的策略，为佛山

各阶层都有机会体验到全新的居住环境和

优质的居住感受。

August 2013 49

CO-SPONSORED ARTICLE

The Foshan Lanshi Project

Sun Hung Kai Properties is set

to unveil Phase I residential

apartments of its development

Foshan Lanshi Project this year and

start business operations in 2014. Echo

Huang, the general manager of South-

ern China of Sun Hung Kai Properties,

spoke to China Economic Review

about the status of this project.

The Foshan Lanshi Project, with an

investment of more than RMB50 bil-

lion, has a 10-year above construction

plan, which consists of quality residen-

tial apartments, top notch urban com-

mercial landmarks, grade A office build-

ings, five-star hotels, well-equipped

schools and other sporting and cultural

facilities. As a 2.8 million square meter

community complex in the center of

the city, this area will assist in interna-

tional economic and cultural exchanges

by building quality hotels, office build-

ings and other facilities that would facil-

itate industry convergence. With the

offering of high-end commercial serv-

ices, the block will be a new city center

in Lingnan area, reflecting an intriguing

mix of traditional and modern.

Taking advantage of Foshan New

City’s beautiful view of the nearby

river and the local culture, the project

will also feature a stylish shopping

street, massive green space and iconic

buildings with Foshan elements, as

well as luxury residential apartments

with a magnificent river view. The area

is expected to see more talented pro-

fessionals moving in once the project

is completed with fully-fledged living

facilities ready, thereby boosting the

city’s value.

“There is a large potential for the

whole project, which boasts optimal

location and resources, and Foshan

city’s development will embolden the

trend. Therefore, it is an appropriate

time to focus on the investment of this

project,” Huang said.

The block will be a new city center in Lingnan area, refl ecting an intriguing mix of traditional and modern

August 201350

The danger in our bellies

Food and drug regulators in

China have been ensnared in

a power struggle that has last-

ed nearly a decade. Control over how

the country makes its edible indus-

tries safe has been the rope in a game

of tug-o-war between the Ministry

of Health, the State Food and Drug

Administration and several other

agencies or ministries that hold some

share of the responsibility for what

Chinese citizens swallow.

A breakthrough came in March

when regulation was consolidated into

a smaller number policymakers and

enforcers. Still, the drawn-out process

was not without its casualties. Numer-

ous food-safety scandals rocked China

during the past 10 years and several

cases since the beginning of the year

have attracted international media

attention.

One side effect from years of frag-

mented food regulation is poor inspec-

tion practices, says Chen Junshi, a

medical doctor and a senior researcher

at the Beijing-based National Institute

of Nutrition and Food Safety. The offi-

cials responsible for ensuring that only

clean food reaches the Chinese dinner

table are often unqualified, he says.

Oftentimes, when infractions are dis-

covered, inspector’s act to quiet serious

safety infractions. The central govern-

ment must play a greater role in mak-

ing sure officials across the country are

doing their jobs, Chen argues.

This is the second half of China

Economic Review’s interview with

Chen Junshi. Visit ChinaEconomicRe-

view.com to read the first installment

of Chen’s discussion on misleading

media reports and the seriousness of

food-borne illness in China.

How has the consolidation of agencies helped to resolve prob-lems in food-safety regulation?Definitely it improved the situation of

so-called fragmentation. Because many

problems happen because of fragmen-

tation. The clenbuterol case happened

with pork meat [158 pigs in Henan

province were found to be contami-

nated]. Who is going to be responsi-

ble? Nobody, because of fragmenta-

tion. But now it’s very clear. It’s either

the Ministry of Agriculture or the new

Food and Drug General Administra-

tion. Nobody else.

But how do those two decide who is in charge of pork cases?It’s not very clear yet. But in principle,

the Ministry of Agriculture is responsi-

ble for the primary agriculture product

at the farming level, edible crops and

livestock. After that, it’s the Food and

Drug General Administration.

So it sounds like the fragmenta-tion has been reduced, but there is still some level. But that’s acceptable. Two agencies,

like the US. The major issue now is the

working model of these agencies.

What do you mean by that?

Do you know how the Chinese inspec-

tors do their job when they go to the

food enterprise? I suggest you go have

a try and see.

Is there not much real, on-the-ground inspection?Yes, that’s the real problem. That’s

not the correct way. They fully rely

on sampling and testing. The inspec-

tor goes to the food enterprise, they

walk around and they just check the

records. They see [the factory has]

their GMP [Good Manufacturing

Practice certificate] and some have

their HACCP [Hazard and Criti-

cal Control Points certificate]. They

just check the record and say, “you

are GMP and you are HACCP.” They

need to check whether the [way they

produce the food] is correct, whether

[regulations are] implemented or not.

They never do that. They never look at

the manufacturing process. So they’re

just looking at the record, not what’s

really going on in the factory. One

exaggerated example: They even see

the flies, but they don’t care. They just

do the sampling and testing. Because,

on one hand they don’t have the pro-

fessional knowledge. On the other

hand, they want to protect themselves.

Low risk.

Protect themselves from...From making mistakes. Sampling

relies on the laboratory report. Did it

comply or not comply? That’s easy.

That’s no risk. If it’s compliant,

Food-safety inspectors on the local level are hardly doing their jobs

Q&A

August 2013 51

Q&A

then good. If not, we have a prob-

lem. You need to understand, what is

the background of those inspectors.

We have millions of them, from dif-

ferent, fragmented agencies. AQSIQ

[General Administration of Quality

Supervision, Inspection and Quaran-

tine], they have their own system. The

Industry and Commerce Administra-

tion, they have their own inspection

system. And the Ministry of Agricul-

ture has their own system. But they

don’t talk to each other. Mostly they

are not well trained.

Is the cadmium rice scandal another example of misleading information in the media?In the media, the report is factual. No

exaggeration. But the risk communica-

tion is a huge factor in this case. It hap-

pened in a limited area in Guangzhou.

Only in certain small restaurants, not

well known. They collected a small

number of samples, less than 40, and

almost 50% exceeded the maximum

limit of cadmium in rice. When the

people read the news, they think it’s

terrible. It’s not these 40 samples, it’s

all the rice we are eating everyday. At

the national level we know very well

because the government is carrying out

a surveillance program, covering all 31

provinces, 800,000 data points every

year, analyzing everything including

cadmium. Nationally, about 5% of rice

contains cadmium that exceeds the

maximum limit. This is quite accepta-

ble. Even though we have much strict-

er limits than the international stand-

ard, because rice is our major staple.

The problem in risk communication

is that the central government does

not take immediate action to have an

education program to say what kind of

data we have. It’s very easy to explain

why it happened in those limited sam-

ples. Those are small restaurants. They

buy rice from Hunan [province] busi-

nessmen who sell cheap, unqualified

rice. At the same time in Guangzhou

supermarkets, there are no problems.

In Hunan, they are aware of this prob-

lem. They have a high rate of cadmium

contamination because of industry

and mines. They can’t sell in the nor-

mal market, but there are some illegal

channels.

What’s the central government’s role in this?Here, they try to avoid the problems.

They try to make it smaller and small-

er. That’s the strategy of the central

government. This is the local problem,

so [they say, “Local governments] you

deal with it.” This is Guangdong prov-

ince, so you deal with it. At the central

level, they try to sit in the back. There

is no transparency and that means no

action. They need to improve the situ-

ation. This happened two years before.

Hunan province is very nervous about

this. They ask the central govern-

ment to control the media, but they

don’t take their own responsibility to

improve the situation. And the cen-

tral government, as long as it’s quiet,

they don’t care if Hunan takes action

or not. The Ministry of Agriculture,

actually they have the responsibility

because it’s rice. But they ask the Min-

istry of Health to change the limit [on

acceptable cadmium levels] from 0.2 to

0.4, so there will be much less rice that

does not comply with the regulation.

They don’t solve the real source of the

situation.

How do you appraise the issue of digouyou [gutter oil]? It’s a real issue. Chinese people are too

smart. No scientist can imagine that

you can use such a low cost to get this

excellent result. Even our oil indus-

try experts say, no way, it should be a

much higher cost to treat the digouy-

ou into an edible oil. But they proved

them wrong. Chinese people are very

smart.

August 201352

商业地产吸金有方海外投资者对上海办公楼及零售物业依然青眼有加文 | 晗军

今年上半年度上海房地产市场现状如

何？房地产融资、甲级办公楼及零

售物业、住宅市场出现了哪些新情况、呈

现了哪些趋势？

高力国际近期发布的报告进行了回顾

和展望。延续第一季度平稳的租金走势，

上海甲级写字楼市场平均租金继续保持稳

定。上海零售物业租赁市场表现良好，但

由于新增供应的不断增加，零售物业租金

涨幅已放缓。 商业物业投资市场则保持活

跃，上半年度共录得7宗整售买卖。高力

国际华东及西南区物业投资服务部执行董

事汪蓓女士表示：“7宗交易里只有2宗是

境内买家，其他的都是境外买家。可以看

出，2012年国内买家很积极，但到了今年

上半年境外的买家开始活跃起来。”可见

大部分海外投资者对上海办公楼及零售物

业依然青眼有加。

外资融资在中国限制很多，而且资

金流入不易，境外买家如此积极，主要还

是因为看好国内市场。汪蓓认为，大宗投

资市场今年来发生了变化，就是投资者和

开发商现在都开始回归一线城市。原因在

于，一线城市的投资需求相当旺盛，而且

众所周知，商业地产炒作相当困难，尤其

是大宗交易，所以确实是因为有需求才有

市场。还有就是租客的选择，现在不仅是

上海的外资租客，本地租客也开始把上海

当成据点，不一定会买，但肯定会租，如

银行、保险公司等，中小型企业也需要租

赁办公室，而且对于办公室的要求也越来

越高。“选择在主要城市建立办公点，不

外乎两个地方—北京和上海，所以在需

求比较旺盛时，都会到一线城市，是看好

一线城市的需求。”她说道。

在住宅市场方面，一二手房市场房价

仍然小幅上涨。自“新国五条”出台以来

新房供应量激增，凸显出开发商对未来市

场的信心。

融资问题对于中国银根变化对房地产融资影响

的问题，汪蓓表示，中国银根的收紧和放

松在过去几年来都是时常看到的一种很平

常的变化。开发商经历了这几年来的收紧

和放松的变化以来，都已经有了各自的反

应和解决方案。当放松时，大型开发商就

会进行融贷，中型开发商也会通过银行进

行融资，如果不够的话，中国在信托平台

上也是比较有效的。

她认为， 近的“平行融资”平台包

括了一部分的信托，一部分的股权融资，

或者是股加债，有很多境内外的资金提供

者，有信托的方式提供，或者是正常方式

的房地产资金来进行融资。虽然从结构上

来看是债后股加债的形式。

近期银根收紧对于房地产开发环境

造成了哪些影响？汪蓓表示：“我个人采

取保留的态度。可以预见，政府是想通着

这项举措来对开发商进行整合，去芜存

精，对于国内优质的大中型开发商的项目

进行优化，淘汰小型开发商劣质的单案、

数案。”

海外融资成本比国内本身就低，大

开发商会寻求海外融资渠道，而中小开发

商面临着很大的融资压力。汪蓓分析，大

话题

上海商业地产对外资充满吸引力

August 201354

型开发商的融资平台在国内比较顺畅，在

海外投资，他们是希望能有更开阔的海外

投资平台。国内的中小型开发商一直以来

都有融资的压力，所以很多信托的平台都

是中小型开发商的平台。而中小型开发商

因为区域的不同，也有他们自己的融资渠

道。例如江浙区域的二级开发商，他们会

有自己的平台，会通过生意伙伴形成自己

的筹资渠道。所以很难一概而论。

甲级写字楼今年前五月上海实际利用外资总额

同比增长11.8%。有利于次中心商务区

市场的基础建设投资额在前五月同比增长

9.4%。

嘉地中心和静安嘉里中心二号楼是本

季度两个新增供应。今年第二季度的租赁

市场较第一季度活跃，但主要是季节性因

素影响而非经济基本面改善之结果。上半

年，净吸纳量总计约12万多平方米，同比

上升44%。本季，甲级写字楼市场内瞩目

的租赁成交案例包括：Visa搬迁至未来资

产大厦，承租约2000平方米；中信资本附

属公司在上海环球金融中心承租约1600平

方米作为新设办公地点；帕金斯威尔将其

在恒隆广场二期的面积扩大2100平方米。

截至今年第二季度末，上海核心商务

区甲级写字楼平均租金与上一季度相若，

持平在每天每平方米人民币8.8元。今年上

半年内，整售市场录得共计5宗整售交易。

譬如，第一季度内，ARA以总价人民币19

亿元收购海洋大厦。第二季度，里昂证券

以约每平方米人民币33000元的单价收购

了东海商业中心二期及一期部分面积。同

期，凯雷集团4月向富达来地产信托收购了

中区广场，交易总价约人民币16.7亿元，

该项目座落于黄浦区。

总计约25万多平方米的3个项目预计

会在未来6个月内进入上海核心商务区甲级

写字楼市场，包括静安嘉里中心三号楼、

长宁区金虹桥国际中心以及黄浦区的金外

滩国际广场。上海甲级写字楼平均租金预

计在今年全年保持平稳。

上海哪个区域的办公楼的租金会有上

涨的潜力？高力国际华东区办公楼服务部

租户代表董事吴群先生认为：“如果上海

整体大环境不发生很明显的变化，预计是

会维持不变的，但是在基础上随着某些项

目的规划完整、配套完善以及专业参与者

的积极参与，个别区域的租金会上涨。不

过租金的上涨还是视当今的情况而言。就

这个定义来看，未来的大虹桥区域，有可

能写字楼租金上涨幅度会达到上海 高的

区域，不过还是要假以时日。”

他还指出，上涨的幅度也是要视基准

点而言，例如淮海中路区域的写字楼租金

基准点偏高，即使有所上涨，幅度也不会

像虹桥区域那么明显。

零售物业据上海统计局，今年第一季度上海实

现社会消费品零售额人民币1920亿元，同

比上涨7.2%，但较2012年第一季度降低

3.4个百分点。对零售业产生影响的经济

基本面的增长放缓，导致众多发展商对业

态和品牌组合及项目开业策略变得更为谨

慎，因此，上半年一些新项目的竣工日期

被推迟。

上半年，淮海路商圈内的K11艺术购

物中心及虹桥商圈内的尚嘉中心这两个新

中高端购物中心的开业，共为市场新增8万

多平方米的零售面积。截至第二季度末，

上海中高端购物中心物业市场总存量提升

至约340万平方米，同比增长2.8％。

中高端购物中心物业的需求主要来自

于奢侈品、服饰、餐饮、娱乐、配饰及教

育等业态，并伴随着众多新租及新店开张

活动。截至上半年末，上海中高端购物中

心物业市场的整体空置率环比下降0.4个百

分点至8.5%。

上海中高端购物中心物业市场首层

平均固定租金较2012年下半年环比上涨

约1.1%，至每天每平方米人民币40.7

August 2013 55

元。上半年内，上海零售物业投资市场

共录得两宗整售交易，每个季度各一宗。

其一为吉宝置业中国联合首峰资金管理于

第一季度斥资总金额约人民币33亿元收购

金桥国际商业广场之80%股权。另一为新

世界百货中国有限公司之附属公司于第二

季度以总价人民币12.5亿元收购上海鸿鑫

时尚广场。

上海中高端购物中心市场的整体展

望平稳。今年下半年市场供应充裕，预计

将有三个新项目落成开业，新增总建筑面

积达50多万平方米。其中，两个项目位于

核心商圈。然而，核心商圈新项目的预租

率较高，预计此等新增供应对市场整体空

置率影响有限。但考虑到今年末将入驻次

中心商圈的月星环球港32万平方米的超大

体量，市场整体空置率短期内会在一定合

理范围内上升，租金涨幅在短期内随之受

阻。

月星环球港以及下半年很多大型物业

入市，高力国际华东区商铺服务部董事洪

淑慧女士并不认为会上海零售物业的供应

过剩。“就现今上海的情况而言，说非常

多吧，其实也不是，因为优质的体验式的

购物中心还是比较稀缺的。月星环球港在

开业的4到5天内已有50万左右的人光顾，

说明大家还是期待这种新的商业模式的体

验。”她说道。

住宅市场近交易情况显示，截至今年第二季

度末，上海对部分二手房开征的20%个人

所得税仍未实际执行。一、二手房成交均

价继续小幅上扬。

开发商出于对未来地方调控细则落地

的考虑，3月，上海新建商品住宅供应量出

现明显上升。在新一轮调控背景下，5月上

海新建商品住宅供应量更是达到了2011年

以来的 高水平，约为134万平方米（约

10670套）。

成交量方面，在调控新政正式执行

前，3月上海新建商品住宅成交量达150

万平方米（约12683套），为近40个月新

高。4至6月月均成交量高于2012年月均成

交量。

上海新建商品住宅成交均价按季环比

增长2.1%，至第二季度每平方米人民币

23736元。成交均价的上涨主要是由于中

高端产品成交量占比的增加所致。

今年上半年，若干个海内外发展商对

上海住宅市场纷纷持乐观态度。例如，3月

上海融创绿城房地产开发有限公司以总价

约人民币90.2亿元收购了一宗位于上海黄

浦区的综合体项目，总建面积达72万多平

方米。5月，花样年以人民币2.84亿元的

总价收购了中国地产集团位于浦东竹园商

贸区的爵士大厦。6月，吉宝置地以人民币

13.3亿元收购了上海松江区佘山镇的一个

住宅项目。

高力国际上述报告预计，上海住宅市

场在未来将保持平稳。鉴于一、二手房市

场房价仍在小幅上涨，上海市政府已宣布

将继续执行于第一季度出台的房地产调控

政策。从中期来看，受地价上涨推升房价

增长的预期影响，今年上半年上海土地市

场的回暖预计将促使发展商提升报价。鉴

于今年前5个月上海住宅新开工量出现了同

比16.9%的降幅，从中期来看，上海新建

商品住宅新增供应量预计将会下跌。下半

年上海总体成交量将会保持平稳。在持续

的首次置业及改善型需求买家的支撑下，

下半年上海新建商品住宅成交均价预计将

稳中有升。从中长期来看，持续的需求

量、供应量的不足以及不断上涨的地价将

促使房价继续上涨。

装潢富丽堂皇的月星环球港

话题

August 201356

China’s export slump

US politicians can’t resist tak-

ing China to task for sup-

posed ly ho ld ing down

the value of the renminbi for years.

While they undoubtedly care more

about scoring political points than the

underlying facts, lawmakers would

likely be shocked by a theory that has

arisen recently that China’s currency is

actually overvalued.

The root of that theory: China’s

unexpected 3.1% export slump in June.

Some economists and analysts

quickly jumped to the conclusion

that the renminbi has appreciated too

much. A stronger yuan means that

Chinese exports are more expensive,

which could lead other countries to

buy less.

“In our view, one key policy take-

away from this trade report is probably

that the strength of the yuan can hard-

ly be justified,” wrote Societe Generale

China economist Yao Wei in a July

10 note. She did also note that capital

inflows had been curtailed, part of a

crackdown on illegal trade misstate-

ments, so “the balance in the currency

market should tilt towards yuan depre-

ciation.”

This about-face by many in the

finance industry is surprising, consid-

ering the rise of the renminbi previ-

ously seemed like one of the surest bets

on China. There’s ample evidence that

this new stance may be an overreaction

as analysts scrambled to respond to an

unexpected data release.

The crackdown on misstated trade

statements, noted by Yao, likely had

more to do with the downturn in

exports than an overvalued renminbi.

In addition, exports have been fall-

ing across most emerging markets,

wrote China economist Qinwei Wang

of research firm Capital Econom-

ics. That would indicate weak global

demand also weighed heavily on Chi-

na’s exports.

While exports stole the headlines,

it’s also important to note that imports

fell, a trend that would counteract the

effects of declining exports on the cur-

rency. Imports drive capital outflows

and thus exert downward pressure on

a currency’s value as demand for yuan

falls. Exports do the opposite. Down-

ward trends in both should therefore

offset each other when it comes to the

value of the renminbi.

Taking imports and exports togeth-

er, the trade surplus in June was still a

massive US$27 billion, widening from

May. That measure should, in theory,

narrow if the renminbi is approaching

its par value.

But regardless of whether it is over-

valued or undervalued, the debate may

actually have little bearing on what

the Chinese government does. Beijing

could decide to suppress the value of

the currency to pull out all the stops in

support of exports, whether or not it

runs counter to market forces.

Beijing’s likeliest course of action

is the path of least resistance – neither

allowing the currency to substantial-

ly appreciate or depreciate. That will

ensure that the currency doesn’t put

further pressure on domestic export-

ers and gives policymakers in other

countries like the US no new reasons

to complain about the yuan.

An overvalued renminbi? Nowhere close

REPORT

August 2013 57

EU-China trade

China is no student of subtlety.

On Saturday, the European

Commission said it would

drop tariffs on Chinese solar panels

imported into the EU as long as the

price remains above 56 cents per watt

and total imports do not exceed seven

gigawatts per year. Almost without

delay, China agreed to discuss drop-

ping its investigation into EU wine

exporters for potential trade dumping

activity.

The resolution of the solar dispute

was largely expected to herald the end

of the wine probe that threatened to

hurt small vineyards in Europe. How-

ever, China should have at least tried

to make some effort in masking the

relationship between the two issues.

Agreeing so quickly to talks over the

wine probe shows the country was bla-

tantly breaking WTO rules that for-

bid members from imposing tit-for-tat

trade restrictions.

But since when has China cared

about meeting its WTO obligations,

especially if it can so easily bring to

heel the world’s largest collective econ-

omy?

The history of the EU-Sino solar

dispute – including the resolution over

the weekend – is a clear indication of

the economic and political bloc’s wan-

ing cohesion, as well as its inability to

negotiate with its trade partners and

rivals.

Disputes over China’s alleged

dumping of solar products had

stretched on for nearly nine years

before the EU trade commission took

action. On May 9, the commission,

under the direction of Trade Commis-

China is the clear winner in the EU-Sino solar dispute

REPORT

August 201358

sioner Karel De Gucht, said it would

levy tariffs as high as 67% on products

such as polysilicon.

The EU was soon backpedaling

though. On June 4, the commission

imposed 11.8% duties on China’s

solar products with plans to ramp tar-

iffs up to 47% in August, a move that

earned a lukewarm reception from

Europe’s solar producers and the

abhorrence of member state govern-

ments hoping to keep trade ties tight

with China.

And now, even this weaker tariff

has been gutted. After August 6, the

EU will only impose that 47% average

duty on imports that fail to meet the

requirements agreed to on Saturday.

The drawn out trade battle has

come to an uneventful end, but one

that EU member states should think

long and hard over.

“In my view, the outcome shows

the strong bargaining power China

has, in particular when Europe is not

speaking with one voice,” Guntram

Wolff, director at independent Brus-

sels-based think tank Bruegel, said in

an email.

The final outcome is hardly surpris-

ing. In late May, China Economic

Review opined that the tariffs would

be benign by the time the commission

put them in place.

It’s well known that China applies

pressure on individual member-state

politicians to ensure a friendly business

environment for Chinese firms.

This much has been apparent from

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s

railing against potential duties for

nearly a year. She understands that

deteriorating conditions for Chinese

companies in Europe can equate to

difficulties for their German counter-

parts on the mainland.

China’s influence also runs deeper

than top-level politicians. European

companies that operate in China are

sometimes called into the offices of the

Ministry of Commerce and asked to

lobby their countries’ leaders for pref-

erential treatment of Chinese compa-

nies, one person close to the tariff dis-

pute told China Economic Review,

on condition of anonymity due to the

sensitivity of the issue.

“It’s a mixture of bribery and black-

mailing,” the person said.

Besting China, a country with a

long history of official corruption, on

those points will be difficult – even

more so when Europe is divided.

August 2013 59

Traditional Chinese medicine

Chinese have been using the

green and leafy andrographis-

paniculata to treat inflamma-

tion, fever and pain for decades, with

its cultivation dating back to at least

the 1950s in the southern province of

Guangdong.

The plant, better known in China

as chuan xinlian, is widely accepted in

China. But like many traditional medi-

cines, it has mostly been relegated to

an over-the-counter herbal supplement

in the West. The uses of so-called tra-

ditional Chinese medicine (TCM) such

as andrographis (technically native to

India) are generally viewed as specula-

tive at best in much of the rest of the

world.

The plant may be on the verge of

newfound and widespread use in a form

more palatable to Western markets like

the United States, however.

The US Food and Drug Adminis-

tration (FDA) opened up a new path-

way for approving botanical drugs in

the mid-2000s, and Hong Kong-head-

quartered Hutchison China MediTech

intends to be one of the first compa-

nies to walk down it. The company has

created drug HMPL-004 derived from

andrographis to treat Crohn’s disease

and other gastrointestinal inflamma-

tions. The drug is now in the final phase

of clinical trials and could be ready for

sale in three or four years.

“What we wanted to do was really

understand traditional Chinese medi-

cine on kind of a molecular level,”

Christian Hogg, CEO of Hutchison

China MediTech, told China Econom-

ic Review. “[We wanted] to go beyond

all of the folklore and all of the char-

latans that existed in TCM and really

understand what was the efficacy, what

was the safety, what therapeutic areas is

it highly effective in.”

Spoonful of sugar, and profitA small handful of new drugs such as

HMPL-004 are in development that

could put traditional Chinese medicine

into a form more palatable in the West.

Hutchison is also exemplary of how

multinationals are increasingly attract-

ed to the booming TCM market. The

company first entered the traditional

Chinese medicine market in 2000 and

then partnered earlier this year with a

subsidiary of Swiss food maker Nestle

on the drug.

“As multinationals begin to have

success, the blanket dismissal of Chi-

nese medicine is probably going to go

away,” said Helen Chen, a director and

partner at LEK Consulting.

The domestic market for tradition-

al Chinese medicine alone should be

enough to make Western drug firms

salivate. The industry is now worth

roughly US$55.9 billion (RMB342.6 bil-

lion) as of 2012, up from US$10.9 bil-

lion, according to statistics compiled by

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

Traditional Chinese medicine repre-

sents 38% of pharma sales as of 2012.

“If [Western drug companies] are talk-

ing about China but not doing TCM,

they’re losing about half the market,”

said Bruce Liu, a partner with Roland

Berger.

That’s largely because TCM makes

up 46% of the drugs approved for

reimbursement under Chinese medical

Chinese medicine plays by Western rules to gain acceptance

REPORT

August 201360

insurance. The market will continue to

boom, Hogg predicts, because Chinese

medical insurance schemes are being

broadened and more rural residents

on rudimentary insurance are being

brought into more comprehensive

urban plans.

Liu said he expects the market to

continue to grow at about 17% a year.

In addition to opportunities to bring

drugs like HMPL-004 to the West,

Hogg said this booming domestic

market played a large part in attract-

ing Hutchison to TCM. The compa-

ny operates several lines of business in

China, including joint ventures, and its

total sales are now US$407.8 million.

“It is a massive, massive part of the

pharmaceutical industry in China,”

Hogg said. “It goes extremely deep. It is

part of the national mind set and belief

system.”

Bitter pillIn the West, traditional Chinese medi-

cine faces an uphill battle toward wide-

spread acceptance. Chun-su Yuan, a

medical doctor and editor-in-chief

of The American Journal of Chinese

Medicine, has spent more than 30 years

in the US but has only seen attitudes

toward TCM change in the last five to

seven years.

Yuan, originally from China and

now director of the Tang Center for

Herbal Medicine Research at Univer-

sity of Chicago, said the rapid economic

development of China has drawn atten-

tion to TCM. The Chinese government

has also encouraged research into Chi-

nese medicine

Traditional Chinese medicine

accounts for less than 5% of the US$10

billion in sales within the broader cat-

egory of over-the-counter herbal medi-

cine (generally not subject to FDA

approval) in the US, Yuan estimates.

But awareness and acceptance is only

growing slowly, he said. The majority

of Western-trained doctors still do not

believe in complementary alternative

medicine, including TCM, because of a

lack of controlled studies. A small seg-

ment, less than 10%, “love” Chinese

medicine.

“There is a lot of skepticism among

physicians, health care professionals

in the US and this somewhat prevents

the development of herbal medicine

or Chinese medicine in this country,”

Yuan said.

Chinese medicine will need to win

over Western doctors the same way

most pharmaceuticals do: through rig-

orous clinical trials.

The FDA gave “botanical” drugs an

avenue for approval in 2004. Since then,

only two drugs have been approved

and only one based on TCM, called

Veregen. That drug, based on green tea

extract, is used to treat warts.

In addition to Hutchison’s HMPL-

004, a handful of other TCM based

drugs are in the pipeline. Among them

is Tasly Pharmaceutical’s drug Dan-

tonic, made from extracts of a plant

in the mint family and another that is

related to ginseng, intended to treat the

heart condition angina pectoris. The

Chinese firm’s drug is now in phase III

FDA trials.

The drugs will have good sales pros-

pects if they gain FDA approval, said

Liu of Roland Berger.

Outside of the US, the Netherlands

granted approval to an herbal medicine

developed by Chengdu Diao Pharma-

ceuticals Group to treat a certain type of

heart condition in March 2012, clearing

the way for broader entry into the EU.

Winning hearts and gastrointes-tinal tractsPharma companies could particularly

look to TCM as a source for developing

drugs to treat chronic conditions where

Western medicines haven’t been entire-

ly effective, he said. That could include

applications for central nervous system

and cardiovascular diseases. “[TCM]

could potentially be a treasure island for

drug discovery,” Liu said.

As yet, only a few companies are

attempting the difficult feat of taking

TCM-based drugs down the FDA path

to approval.

Several sources expounded on exact-

ly how difficult it is. Many chemical

drugs are based on individual com-

pounds found in nature. Most of these

have already been discovered.

Botanical drugs by contrast often

will be based on several compounds

found in the herb the drug is derived

from. But to gain FDA approval, the

effects of every compound in the drug

must be isolated, a challenging task.

For now, the FDA botanical drug

pathway is suited for drugs that rely on,

for example, five or ten compounds,

Hogg said. That’s a number that the

regulators can cope with.

But an herb could have hundreds of

compounds in it, Hogg said. The botan-

ical-based drugs under consideration

are a critical step beyond single-com-

pound drugs that could set up authori-

ties to broaden to even more complex

herb-based medicines later on.

“This is not going to be a broad-scale

global expansion of Chinese medicine,”

Hogg said. “What this is going to be is

really identifying these substances that

can work under these new regulatory

guidelines and that will be the first sort

of wave of it.”

August 2013 61

苏洵为什么不经商这位宋朝文人活着的唯一目的就是要做官文 | 李开周 经济生活史作家

苏洵、苏轼、苏辙，

爷儿仨都是文坛大

腕，并称“三苏”，但是

苏洵的成就离两个儿子可

就差远了。

后人读苏洵文章，什

么《太玄论》，什么《洪

范论》，猛一看，气度宽

广，好像胸怀天下似的，

细一瞧，那些气度都是硬

挤出来的。不像苏轼的文章，行云流水，

进退自如，纯粹出于自然。

苏洵本来就是个没有气度的人。换

句话说，他格局太小，不能容人。他早期

的政论鼓吹变法，狠批守旧派，后来进京

求官，遭到王安石奚落，立即恨上了王安

石，事事跟王安石反着来。见王安石也鼓

吹变法，他就从鼓吹变法变成反对变法，

并让两个儿子跟王安石绝交。后来王安石

的老母亲在开封病逝，京城名人都去拜

祭，只有苏洵不去，还写了篇《辨奸论》

到处散发，把王安石骂了个狗血淋头，说

他吃的是猪食和狗粮，长了一张囚犯的

脸，注定不会有好下场。

一个没有气度的人，为什么非要在

文章里装着有气度的呢？因为苏洵想用这

些有气度的文章做敲门砖，敲开官场的大

门。

苏洵是四川人，祖上三代都是农民。

农民 大的兴趣是土地，几乎每个农民都

想让自家的田地不断增多，好从佃户变成

自耕农，再从自耕农变成小地主，从小地

主变成大地主。然而苏洵的父亲和祖父似

乎对土地的兴趣并不大。

北宋初年，蜀国被宋军攻破，高官显

贵被宋军俘虏，他们的土地被低价出售，

稍有积蓄的农民都争相买进，唯独苏洵的

祖父苏杲无动于衷。邻居劝他买田做地

主，他说：“当地主有什么神气？要当就

当官！”可惜他是个文盲，当不了官，只

能把自己的儿子苏序送进私塾。

苏序就是苏洵的父亲，此人在私塾里

读了几年书，学会了写诗，一生写下几千

首诗，堪称北宋 多产的诗人。可惜他写

的诗作质量太差，连乾隆都不如，只能算

作顺口溜。在北宋初年，一个不会写诗的

人不太可能通过科举考试，所以苏序也没

当上官。

苏序生了三个儿子，把他们全部送进

私塾读书，盼望其中能有一个儿子通过科

考、混上官职。他的愿望没有落空，二儿

子苏涣很顺利地考中了举人，然后又考中

了进士，去陕西宝鸡当了县政府办公室主

任（主簿）。

苏家在四川眉山是大族，苏涣则是从

这个大族里走出的第一个官员，他给家族

带来了荣耀，也给苏洵造成了刺激。苏洵

管苏涣叫哥哥，眼见哥哥成了老爷，而自

己还是白丁一个，他暗暗下定决心，不当

上官誓不为人。

也不知道是因为成绩太差，还是因

为运气太差，苏洵从十几岁起就开始参加

科举考试，一直考到年过半百，始终没有

考中进士。《三字经》拿苏洵给小朋友励

志，说他原先是个文盲，年近三十才发奋

读书， 后终于一举成名，那都是瞎扯。

实际上苏洵不到六岁就被望子成官心切的

父亲送进私塾读书，三十岁前已经参加过

很多次科举考试，直到去世前也没有考中

进士。

按照北宋选官制度，做官有五种途

径：一是考上进士，二是通过恩荫，三是

花钱买官，四是从小吏做起，五是参军立

功。苏洵考不上进士，他父亲和祖父都不

是官，没办法靠恩荫混上乌纱帽，想花钱

买官又没有钱，所以他选择参军立功这条

道路。

他是文士，打仗是不会的，只能去

部队里当幕僚。而当幕僚又需要有一定名

气，不然将军们不可能让他代写奏章和文

书。于是苏洵从三十岁起开始发奋写书，

话题

人们考公务员的积极性远远超过创业的兴趣

August 201362

李开周

既写变法改革的政论，也写扩土封疆的兵

法。他模仿孟子的文风，力图把文章写得

大气、辛辣，并在书里把自己描述成一个

足智多谋、神勇无敌、胸怀天下、报国无

门的世外高人。他自己出钱把这些书刻印

出来，通过二哥苏涣送给朝中大佬，希望

能打动某个高官，使自己得以去军中当幕

僚，或者直接被破格提拔为官员。

四十岁之前，他一直这样写书、送

书、求见高官，他失败了。

五十岁之前，他仍然这样写书、送

书、求见高官，还是失败了。

他认为自己之所以失败是因为缺乏

人脉，所以一直想法设法结交官员。他把

女儿嫁给一个无赖（后来女儿在婆家被虐

待致死），只因为那个无赖的父亲是个进

士。他做主让儿子苏轼娶了一个不爱的女

孩（这个女孩在二十多岁就去世了），只

因为那个女孩的父亲是个举人。他求见老

家的知县，求见成都的知州，求见韩琦、

文彦博等朝中大佬。他一边痛骂变法派王

安石，一边却去结交同样支持变法的韩氏

兄弟，只因为韩家世代为官，树大根深，

可以帮他一把。

后还是欧阳修帮了他一把。

欧阳修鄙夷苏洵的人品，不看苏洵的

书信，说自己没有时间，并规劝苏洵不要

挟私求名。但苏洵像 有毅力的推销员一

样继续去敲欧阳修的门，猛拍欧阳马屁，

夸他是继孔子、孟子和韩愈之后的第四位

大师，整个大宋无人能比。后来欧阳修看

在门生苏轼的面子上，保举他去太常寺编

撰礼书，那是北宋前期未入流小官所做的

工作。

当官以后没几年，苏洵就去世了，朝

廷拨给苏轼和苏辙一笔安葬费，让他们回

老家埋葬父亲。苏轼却说：“能不能把这

些安葬费换成一个官职赠给亡父，好安慰

他的在天之灵呢？”说明他非常了解父亲

一生当中对官职的渴望。

从今人角度看，苏洵度过了非常不

划算的一生，同时也度过了非常不负责任

的一生。他出身农民家庭，但却从来不去

田里劳作。他虽有三个儿子（大儿子死得

早），却把养家糊口的重担交给了妻子。

他没有立过战功，也没有干过民政，他没

有给人民造过福，好像也从来没有想过要

为人民造福。他活着只有一个目的，那就

是要做官。

苏洵的故乡眉山纺织业发达，商业

繁荣，他妻子程氏独自一人挑起养家的重

任，并且还要负担起丈夫到处求官的路

费，其经济来源主要就是靠从事纺织品贸

易。苏轼回忆说：“我家 贫穷的时候，

先母卖掉了嫁妆，带着孩子去县城租房定

居，用五年时间贩卖织物，赚了很多很多

钱。”其实这些工作本来应该是苏洵来做

的，可他没有做，也不屑做，因为在他眼

里，只有当官才是光荣的，经商和务农都

很低贱。

我不认为苏洵是个特例，在人治代替

法治、权力大于一切的古代中国，做官确

实比从事任何行业都要划算。而经商则有

太多风险，即使赚的钱再多，也能被一个

小小的芝麻绿豆官儿踩在脚底下。所以在

宋朝以及其他朝代，商人赚了钱首先想到

的不是去扩大再生产，而是怎样买到一官

半职，用官位来保卫自己的财富，这就是

中国为什么不可能发展资本主义的原因。

即使在现代中国，上述风气仍然存

在。大学生毕了业，考公务员的积极性远

远超过创业的兴趣。商人赚了钱，一定要

当人大代表或者政协委员。归根结底，还

是因为官职在中国大陆仍然是剥削别人和

奴役别人的有效工具，而不是服务大众的

有效工具。只要这个现象不彻底改变，中

国就永远不可能发展出真正的自由市场，

而只能走向官僚资本主义。

南京的江南贡院是现存 大的科举考场

August 2013 63

向钱看面子是否仍凌驾于金钱诱惑之上呢文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

近日 我 到 中 国 的 内

陆 城 市 出 差 ， 下

飞机后便前往出租车上客

处候车，但现场秩序混乱

不堪，周围尽是上前兜售

生意的“黑的”司机，而

那些所谓的出租车调度员

们则站在一旁视若无睹。

我并未接受“黑的”司机

们的邀请，坚持乘坐正规的出租车。

载我上路的那位出租车司机刚开始心

情并不好。他告诉我，自己排了整整三个

小时的队，中间还要时不时被蛮横的黑车

加塞。

“ 为 什 么 不 整 治 并 取 缔 这 些 黑 车

呢？”我很疑惑。

“因为这是调度人员收入的重要来

源。他们从我们身上捞不到什么油水。”

他回应道。

出租车一路飞奔向城内，车内的气

氛也一度陷入沉默。突然他若有所思地对

我说：“如今这个社会一切都只是向钱看

了，你觉得吗？”

我点头表示赞同。

后计价器显示的车费是80元，而此

前那些自称价格优惠的黑车司机们却报价

150元。我很感谢这位司机，给了他一张

100元的纸币。他想要找钱给我，但我拒

绝了。

毋庸置疑，每个社会都崇尚金钱。那

些真正贫穷的人往往别无选择，只能节衣

缩食，利用手中的所有来换取金钱。但若

已脱离赤贫，却仍然将金钱视作一切，则

不啻为另一种贫穷—精神的贫穷。

中国几十年来一直致力于解决人民

的温饱问题。如今该目标已几近达成，这

一事实不得不让人感到由衷地赞叹。但颇

为讽刺的是，那些从过去数十年中国经济

超速发展中受益 多的群体恰恰是“向钱

看”理论 为坚定的拥护者。

过去中国的官方媒体经常公开批评类

似理论—我第一次听到“向钱看”这一

名词还是在上世纪80年代，当时北京人民

广播电台撰文批评了改革开放初期的这一

现象。而如今“向钱看”已超越其他所有

理论成为了中国社会发展的“新纲领”，

但对类似现象的讨伐之辞则很少在电台节

目中听到了。

中国大作家林语堂先生在其创作于

20世纪30年代的著作中谈到了中国人在

调和这类矛盾上的驾轻就熟。他举例称，

当时和尚与寺庙的收入都十分丰厚，来源

则是富人和穷人的香火钱，而前者所需要

做的就是念经做法，代表施主祈求神灵

庇佑。

“许多大寺院每年收入着实可观，而

许多和尚手头也颇为富裕，这是近年来发

现的许多不良案件之原委所在。”他在书

中写道，“一九三四年，曾有一位尼姑胆

敢具状上海法院，控告一位大和尚诱奸。

甚么都可以发生在中国！”

林先生称，对于那个年代的中国人而

言，唯一可以战胜金钱诱惑的就是面子。

“人情，一切太讲人情，这个吾们

的‘面子’！”他在书中指出，“但它又

是志气的刺激物,力能克服中国人贪爱金钱

的心理。它曾使一位教员先生感觉老大没

趣，因为他的外国校长坚决要增加他的薪

水，从十八元增至十九元。他情愿受取十

八元，否则须二十元，不然则宁可自杀，

却不愿被呼为‘十九块人’。一位丈人以

不肯留其无聊赖的女婿吃顿夜饭，这样下

了他的面子，恐怕丈人的本意仅欲使其女

婿改过做个像样的人；或许当此女婿垂头

丧气，踽踽独行的归途中，倒就是他的努

力向上的起点。”

然而在今日之中国，面子是否仍凌驾

于金钱诱惑之上呢？我并不太确定。

看中国

调度人员在正规的出租车上捞不到什么油水

August 201364

晏格文

LOOKING AT CHINA

Taxis and social moralityMoney and morality are uneasy partners at any time and anywhere, but particularly it seems in the China of today.By Graham Earnshaw

I landed at an airport in inland

China recently, and the taxi queue

was a mess. Black cars and negoti-

ations with suspicious drivers with the

so-called taxi queue managers standing

by paying no attention. I declined and

insisted on taking a regular taxi.

The driver started in a bad mood.

He had been queueing himself for

three hours, he said, and had been

bumped time and again by the aggres-

sive unlicensed black taxi drivers.

“Why don’t they clean it up and get

rid of the black taxis?” I asked.

“Because they are an important

source of income for them,” he replied,

“They make nothing off us regular

taxis.”

He went silent as we drove into

town, then said: “Money, that is the

only thing that matters in this society

today. Do you feel it?”

I nodded.

The fee in the end was 80 compared

to the 150 the black taxi drivers had

insisted was cheap. I handed a 100 note

to the driver, Xiao Long, and he tried

to give me the change. Good for him. I

refused to take it.

Every society, of course, values

money. And for people who are really

poor there is often no choice but to

compromise everything else in return

for money. But to value it above all else

once that extreme poverty has been

overcome, that is another kind of pov-

erty, a poverty of spirit.

China has fought for decades to

solve the basic issues of life - warmth,

housing and enough food to eat. They

solved it. But ironically it is often the

people who have benefitted most from

the super-fast growth who now hold

fastest to the principle of xiangqiankan,

meaning “focus on the money” but

sounding similar to the saying “look to

the future.”

Criticism of this approach to life

used to be regularly heard in the Chi-

nese official media – I first heard the

xiangtiankan tendency being criticized

on Beijing People’s Radio around

1980, just at the beginning of the new

era. Now, that approach has beaten all

alternatives to become the new guid-

ing principle of China, but I do not

remember hearing criticism of it on

the radio in recent times.

The great Chinese writer Lin

Yutang, writing in the 1930s, talked

about the ease with which Chinese

people are able to reconcile such

contradictions. He used as an exam-

ple Buddhist monks and monasteries

which in those days were often wealthy

due largely to donations from rich and

poor alike in return for intercession by

the monks on their behalf on matters

large and small.

“Many monasteries are exception-

ally well endowed, and many monks

have plenty of money to spend, which

is the cause of mischief in many cases

that have come to light in recent

years,” Lin wrote. “In 1934 a nun actu-

ally had the audacity to sue a monk for

infidelity in a Shanghai court. Any-

thing may happen in China.”

In those days, Lin said the one thing

that could beat the love of money for

Chinese people was face.

“Human, all too human, this face

of ours,” he said. “And yet, it is the

goad of ambition and can overcome

the Chinese love of money. It has

caused a schoolteacher infinite misery

because the foreign principal insisted

on increasing his salary from eighteen

dollars to nineteen dollars. He would

rather take eighteen dollars or twenty

or die than be called a nineteen-dollar

man. A father-in-law, by refusing to

ask his unworthy son-in-law to stay for

supper and thus making him lose face,

is probably only wanting to make a

man out of him, and very possibly that

solitary walk on his way back home

may be the beginning of his making

good.”

Is it still true in China that face

trumps love of money? I am not sure.

August 2013 65

罂粟花荚晏格文（Graham Earnshaw）生于英国，现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点，行程从上海一路向西，横贯中国。本月，他已行至奉节县城以东。文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

西游记

出了奉节县城便又是村落，我在一家

小店买了瓶水，到附近矮楼下找

了处阴凉之地歇脚。当时正值午后，旁边

已围坐着一些午休的村民。此时一名十七

八岁的男孩引起了我的注意，我俩聊了一

会，内容无非是他过往的生活和将来的打

算。上路前我将一路携带的名片给了他，

里面有我此行的官方名称：晏子西游记。

之所以取这个名字正是受到中国四大名著

之一《西游记》的启发，后者主要是讲唐

僧西天取经，孙悟空和猪八戒等人一路保

驾护航的故事。有趣的是，在我离开之后

的一个小时，这名男孩就给我打了电话，

并真诚地表示：“我想与你结伴西游，做

你的猪八戒。要知道我现在没有工作，腿

脚也有些问题。我崇拜你所做的事情，捎

上我一起走吧。”

于是我提议明天一起徒步走一段，他

表示同意。到了第二天上午，他又给我打

了电话，但这次却是坏消息：“真抱歉打

扰您，我母亲不让我来。”

一路至此，墙上的标语仍然随处可

见，内容多是告诫人们不得在林间养猪。

我在路上偶遇一名自称偶尔吸食鸦片的男

子。“鸦片对治疗牙痛和消化毛病有奇

效。”他告诉我。我很好奇吸食前的准备

工作和食用方法。他便给我看了一些经过

碾压，已经干瘪的棕色罂粟花荚，形状好

似一颗小鸡蛋。

“首先将水加热，然后把两三片花荚

倒入水中浸泡数分钟，这样就能喝了。”

他做出解释。

这类茶饮能让人产生一种欣快感，

十分放松舒服的体验，他描述着。我问他

一般多长时间饮用一次，得到的回答是一

周数次。“我不能多喝，否则就有可能上

瘾。”他声称。

路上我又见有人在采集罂粟花荚，但

这次它的用途变成了汤料。“花荚能使汤

的味道变得浓稠鲜美。将它放入汤碗中，

使其与其他作料充分糅合，就能制成美味

的汤汁。当然这只能偶尔为之。”此人告

诉我。

这位奉节的朋友问我要不要亲口品

尝，我欣然接受。该类茶饮无论从视觉、

嗅觉、味觉上都与中药—那种煮沸后泡

沫升腾的棕色药饮并无二致，全然没有之

前我所认为的烟草味。这不禁让我感到失

望。

但这让我充分了解到，利用低剂量鸦

片治疗疾病或为汤汁提味在这片华中区域

仍是稀疏平常之事，且已成为当地村落文

化的一个缩影，这一事实在19世纪英国商

品大举进入中国市场的前后都未曾有过变

化。

通往水乡云阳县的路途需要穿越长

江北部的一座山谷，这里有华中地区 美

的村落风景。山间的一草一木因近日大雨

而焕然一新，水流也较往常更为湍急，悬

August 201366

崖下的每个弯道都能看见瀑布倾泻而下。

若举目远眺，还能望见三峡崖壁和山坡梯

田，后者尽管不如三峡景观那般经典，但

却更贴近自然。之后的路线我则建议人们

向东行至郭家沟镇，这样能避免在午后的

旅途中被太阳暴晒。

由于连日的大雨，道路有些湿滑，我

一路走来目睹了好几起交通事故，多是因

为城里来的私家车不熟悉山路所致。向远

望去便是层层田野，上面大部分栽种着橙

树和蔬菜。

到了郭家沟镇，眼前的环境可不容

恭维，主干道上尽是汽修店和各类面点副

食品店。此时我发现一间小店外有个桌球

台，一群孩童正围在那兴奋地玩着，可手

里的球杆似乎都拿反了。他们告诉我玩一

轮要1元钱，这规则让我无法理解。很多孩

子手里都抓着一个小袋子，时不时总要从

里面挤出一颗糖或其他不明化合物放入嘴

中，让人觉得他们的嘴一刻不停。

离开郭家沟便又是一座山谷，此时一

辆警车停在了我身边，车里的警察探出头

问我要去哪里，并向我索要护照，于是我

很配合地拿了出来。但等到我要求他们出

示工作证，却无人配合， 后甚至还声称

会一路尾随我。

“为什么？”我问道。“我只想一个

人慢慢走，看看风景。”

“我们想确保你的人身安全。”其中

一人回答。

“这里的治安不好吗？”我有些不

解。

在他们将护照还给我后，我朝着下一

个村庄走去。等到了那里，却发现另一名

警察正在交通队门外等着我。

“进来聊一聊。”他表示。

我叹了一口气，告诉他天色已晚，自

己还要继续赶路，边说边又走了。他并未

阻止我。但不出几米远我就开始后悔了，

于是又折回交通队，然而大门已经关上

了。我向隔壁的商店店员打听情况，对方

告诉我警察都在楼上办公，于是我委托他

上楼告诉警察自己想请他们吃饭。而后就

在我给一个小孩拍照时，一名30多岁，领

导模样的警员走了下来。

“不许拍照！”他朝我喊道。

“你是说小孩子？”我略带疑惑。

“不，是说我。”

我邀请他和其他警察同志一起共进

晚餐—附近正好就有一个餐馆，但被他

拒绝了。于是我又提出了一起喝杯茶的请

求，他还是没同意。

“可不久前你不是想和我谈谈吗？我

现在很愿意交流。”我有些着急。见他有

些迟疑，我又进一步说：“一起上楼聊聊

总可以吧。”这次他勉强同意了。于是他

带着我进了一个会议室，还给我倒了一杯

茶。我想找些话题，便开始向他询问这里

的交通状况和村子里的情况。但他只问了

我一个问题。

“你对中国的印象如何？”

“我认为……中国正朝正确的方向发

展。在20世纪70年代末，中国的体制几近

崩溃，但之后邓小平上台了，我们才有了

今天的一切。虽然目前很多地方还是老样

子，但方向是对的。”

在他带我出去的时候，我又问他这一

带 大的法治问题是什么？”

“其实没什么问题。”他表示。

“赌博情况多吗？”

“中国人并不经常赌博。”他回答

道。

August 2013 67

TRAVEL JOURNAL

A brush with the poppyGraham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we fi nd him near the river town of FengjieBy Graham Earnshaw

In the countryside beyond the

town of Fengjie, I stopped to buy

water at a small store and sat for

a while with some people enjoying

the peaceful afternoon together in the

shade of the little building. A boy in

his late teens drew my attention and

we chatted for a while about his life

and hopes for the future. Before I left,

I gave him the name card I use on the

walk, which includes the Chinese name

for the project: Graham’s Travels to

the West (yanzi xiyouji). This is a ref-

erence to one of the great classics of

Chinese Literature, Travels to the West

in which the monk Tang Zeng travels

to India to get the Buddhist scriptures.

He is accompanied on the trip by the

Monkey King and a pig named Zhu

Bajie who protects the monk along the

way. A hour after I had left the store,

the boy called my mobile and said: “I

would like to come with you. I will be

your Zhu Bajie. I have no work, so I

am available. I admire what you are

doing, and I have a problem with my

leg too. Please let me come.”

I said, well, how about if we just

walk together for a couple of hours

tomorrow, and he said fine. But the

next morning, he called me to say he

had bad news. “My mother says I can’t

come,” he said. “Sorry to have both-

ered you.”

I was still seeing slogans daubed on

walls warning people not to cultivate

drugs in the forest, and I talked to a

man who said he took opium occa-

sionally. “It is great for toothache

and digestion problems.” I asked him

about the preparation process and

how it was taken. He showed me some

opium poppy pods, which were dried,

brown and cracked, around the size of

a small egg.

“First you heat some water, then

break two or three pods into the water

and let it simmer for a few minutes.

Then drink,” he said.

The beverage makes you feel relaxed

and comfortable, he said. I asked how

often he drank the special tea, and he

said a couple of times a week. “I don’t

want to do any more than that other-

wise I might get addicted,” he said.

I came across someone else who

collected the pods and used them

in soups. “They make soups really

smooth and tasty,” he said. “You break

a couple of pods into the soup tureen

and let them simmer with the rest of

the ingredients. Lovely. But I wouldn’t

do it too often.”

My friend close to Fengjie asked

me if I would like to try some of this

special tea, and I of course said yes. It

looked, smelled and tasted just like any

other boiled Chinese medicine – a dark

brown bitter brew producing a bit of

a buzz, but nothing like the feeling I

understand accompanies smoking of

the herb. How disappointing.

But what was clear to me was that

the use of opium for low level relative-

ly medicinal and soup enhancement

purposes was still fairly widespread

and a facet of the rural culture in this

part of central China that had both

preceded and followed the high-profile

British excursion into the market in

the 19th century.

The road from Fengjie to the next

river town, Yunyang, followed a val-

ley to the north of the Yangtze river

that was one of the most beautiful

stretches of country I had seen in cen-

tral China. The scenery was enhanced

August 201368

by recent heavy rains that made the

river race noisily down its steep gradi-

ent. Waterfalls cascaded off the cliffs

at every turn. The vistas include the

classic Gorges cliffs and steep terraced

hillsides, and while it was on a slightly

smaller scan than the classic Yangtze

Gorges, it was more secluded. I would

particularly recommend a walk east

towards the town of Guojiagou. East

because then you have the sun mostly

at your back during the afternoon.

The road beyond Fengjie was wet

with rain, the fields largely contained

oranges and vegetables. With the roads

slick with rain, I passed several acci-

dents involving private cars with mid-

dle class car owners from the cities not

used to the mountain roads.

I walked through the little town of

Guojiagou, which was a pretty awful

place, with a main street dominated

by truck repair shops and small stores

selling noodles and candy. Outside one

store was a pool table and a bunch of

kids pushing balls around, mostly with

the wrong end of the cue. They paid

RMB1 each round, and I was told there

were rules, but I could not figure them

out. Many of the kids had little packets

in the hands from which they drip fed

sugar and various processed chemicals

into their systems pretty much non-

stop through each day.

Walking back into the moun-

tains away from Guojiagou, a police

car pulled up beside me, and the cops

inside asked me what I was doing.

They wanted to see my passport, which

I gave to them. I asked to see their cre-

dentials in return, but neither of them

had them on hand. They said they

would shadow me as I walked.

“Why?” I said. “I just want to walk

along in peace, and enjoy the scenery.”

“We want to be sure you are safe,”

said one.

“Is there a law and order problem

around here?” I asked.

They handed the passport back to

me, and I walked on to the next village

where their commander was waiting

for me outside the traffic police office.

“Come in and have a chat,” he said.

I sighed. “It is getting late in the day,

and I would like to keep walking,” I

said, and I walked on. He didn’t chal-

lenge me. But after a while, I started to

regret turning down his invitation, so I

returned to the police station and found

the front now shuttered. I asked at the

shop next door, and the shopkeeper

said the policemen were upstairs. I

asked him to go and tell them I would

like to invite them for dinner, and the

head cop in his mid-30s, came out just

as I was talking a photograph of a child.

“No photos!” he shouted.

“Of kids?” I asked incredulously.

“No, of me.”

I invited him and his colleagues to

dinner – there was a restaurant just

a few steps away. He declined. How

about a cup of tea, then? He said no.

“But a while ago, you wanted to talk

me. Let’s talk,” I urged. He hesitated.

“How about we go upstairs and we can

chat?” He said okay reluctantly and he

took me to a formal meeting room, and

brought me some tea in a paper cup. I

asked him about the traffic and the vil-

lage. He had only one question for me.

“What do you think of China?”

“I think … it is moving in the right

direction. In the late 1970s, it came

close to collapse, but then came Deng

and now we have all this. There are

many changes yet to be made, but the

direction is right.”

As he walked me out, I asked him

what the biggest law and order prob-

lem was in the area. “No problems,

really,” he said.

“How about gambling?”

“Chinese people don’t gamble

much,” he replied.

August 2013 69

Accounting Firms

Harris Corporate Services Ltd

www.harrissec.com.cn

Shanghai Office

Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

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Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Beijing Office

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info.bj@harrissec.com.cn

Guangzhou Office

Room D-E, 11/F, Yueyun

Building

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Fax: +86 20 3762 0543

info.gz@harrissec.com.cn

Hong Kong Office

7/F, Hong Kong Trade Centre

161-167 Des Voeux Road Central

Hong Kong, PRC

Tel: +852 2541 6632

Fax: +852 2541 9339

info@harrissec.com.hk

Airlines

Beijing

Lufthansa German Airlines

Beijing Office

www.lufthansa.com.cn

S101 Beijing Lufthansa Center

50 Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang

Tel: +86 10 6468 8838

Northwest Airlines Airport

Office

www.nwa.com

32271 Passenger Terminal 2,

Capital International Airport

Tel: +86 010 6459 7827

KLM - Greater China Regional

Office

www.klm.com.cn

1609-1611 Kuntai International

Mansion, B12 Chaoyangmenwai

Avenue, Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 10 5922 0747

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Shanghai

Air France - Shanghai Office

www.airfrance.com.cn

3901B Ciro’s Plaza

388 Nanjing Road West

Tel: +86 21 6334 5702

mail.corporate.sha@airfrance.fr

Business Schools

Shanghai

Fudan University - Washington

University EMBA

www.olin.wustl.edu/shanghai

(English)

www.fdms.edu.cn/olin (Chinese)

Room 710, 670 Guoshun Road

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Tel: +86 21 5566 4788

Fax: +86 21 6565 4103

Manchester Business School

Part-time Global MBA

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

Starts August 2013, Shanghai

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

1376 Nanjing Road West,

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6279 8660

mba@mbs-worldwide.ac.cn

Tongji University SIMBA

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

University, 1239 Siping Road

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

China Europe Int’l Business

School

(CEIBS) MBA

www.ceibs.edu

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Fax: +86 21 2890 5200

admissions@ceibs.edu

Shanghai Jiaotong-Euromed

Management AEMBA Program

(MBA/EMBA)

www.aemba.com.cn

Tel: +86 21 5230 1598

Fax: +86 21 5230 3357

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International Schools

Harrow International School

Beijing

www.harrowbeijing.cn

No. 5, 4th Block, Anzhenxili

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

PRC

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

Fax: +86 10 6445 3870

agan@harrowbeijing.cn

Saint Paul American School

www.stpaulschool.cn

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

100192

PRC

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

spasadmissions@gmail.com

Shanghai

Livingston American School

www.laschina.org

580 Ganxi Road

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Shanghai Community

International School (Pudong

Campus)

www.scischina.org

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Pudong

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

British International School

Shanghai - Pudong Campus

www.bisshanghai.com

600 Cambridge Forest New

Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

Pudong

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

Hotels

Shanghai

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

Shanghai

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

reservation@

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Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels

& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

Office

www.starwoodhotels.com

19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building

999 Huaihai Road Central,

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6141 7799

Fax: +86 21 6391 8220

The Leading Hotels of the

World, Ltd. Shanghai Rep.

Office

www.lhw.com

501A Shanghai Center, 1376

Nanjing Road West, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6279 8951

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HR/Recruitment

Beijing

Beijing Deco Personal Services

Ltd.

china.adecco.com

D 9/F Tower II China Central

Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322

beijing.cn@adecco.com

Guangdong

Levin Human Resources

Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.

www.levin.com.hk

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

info@levin.com.hk

Shanghai

ADP China

www.adpchina.com

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

Huaihai Road Central

Shanghai

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

Fax: +86 021 2326 7998

Marketing_China@cn.adp.com

Hudson Recruitment

(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi

International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

Road, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

shresume@hudson.com

Language Schools

MandarinKing

www.mandarinking.cn

Shanghai

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

555 Shanghai, PRC

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

study@mandarinking.cn

PR Agencies

Ketchum Newscan Public

Relations

www.ketchum.com

Shanghai

218 Tianmu Road West

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

Beijing

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Chaoyang

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Ogilvy Group

www.ogilvy.com

Beijing

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

Street, Dongcheng

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Real Estate/Serviced Apartments

Savills Residence Century Park

www.savillsresidence.com

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

PRC

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

info@savillsresidence.com

Park View Apartment

wwww.parkview-sh.com

Block 1-4, No. 888

Changning Road

Shanghai, 200042

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

leasing@parkview-sh.com

Belvedere Service Apartments

www.belvedere.com.cn

Belvedere Service Apartments

833 Changning Road, Shanghai

200050

Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

Fax: +86 21 6251 0000

leasing@belvedere.com.cn

Lanson Place Central Park

Residences

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

Tower 23, Central Park

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

Shanghai

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

Residences

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

200136

PRC

Tel: +86 21 5013 3888

Fax: +86 21 5013 3666

Real Estate/Business Park

Sandhill Plaza

www.sandhillplaza.cn

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Shenyang

Shenyang International

Software Park

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Dongling, Shenyang City,

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Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

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Real Estate/HOPSCA

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Development Co., Ltd

www.antinganting.com.cn

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

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Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

August 2013 71

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

jean.liu@chongbang.com

Serviced Offi ces

Vantone Commercial Center

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Center, No 6 Chaowai Ave

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The Executive Centre

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International Finance Centre

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Center, 8 Century Avenue

Pudong

CITIC Square

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

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Chong Hing Finance Centre

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Centre, 288 Nanjing West Road,

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Tel: +86 21 6062 7183

Shanghai@executivecentre.com

BEIJING

(12 LOCATIONS)

Regus China World Tower 3

15/F China World Tower 3,

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

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CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

Regus Yanlord Landmark

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

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No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

Road

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CHONGQING

Regus Yangtze River

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33/F Yangtze River International

Plaza

22 Nanbin Road

Nanan District

DALIAN

Regus Dalian World Trade

Center

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

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Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

Huacheng Avenue

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Regus Euro American Centre

4/F Euro America Center

18 Jiaogong Road,

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NANJING

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Tower (COMING SOON)

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

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Regus Plaza 66

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Jing’an District

Regus One Corporate Avenue

15/F One Corporate Avenue

222 Hubin Road

Luwan District

Regus Jin Mao Tower

31/F Jin Mao Tower

88 Shiji Avenue

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Regus One Prime

25 F, One Prime

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

Hongkou District,

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

Regus Futian NEO

44/F, NEO Tower A

6011 Shennan Avenue

Futian District

Regus New World Centre

(NEW)

23/F, New World Center,

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Futian District

SUZHOU

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

(COMING SOON)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Regus Tianjin Centre

8/F Tianjin Centre

No.219 Nanjing Road

Heping District

WUHAN

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Corporate Centre 5

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

Avenue

Jiang’an District

Apollo Business Center

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

Huangpu

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6136-6088

Apollo Flagship Center

Apollo Building

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Jing’an

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6133-1888

Apollo Tomson Center

22/F, Tomson Commercial

Building

710 Dongfang Road

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Tel: 021-5158-1688

Apollo Hongqiao Center

26/F, New Town Center Building

83 Loushanguan Road

Changning

Shanghai

Tel: 021-3133-2688

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