cfr simon byman

8/14/2019 CFR Simon Byman

1/8

Honorary CHairman Henry A. Kis s inger CHairman , advisory CounCil James Schle s inger PublisHer Dimitri K. Simes assoCiate PublisHer Paul J. SaundersContributing editors Ian BremmerTed Galen Carpenter Alexis Debat John Hulsman Anatol Lieven David B. Rivkin, Jr. Ray Takeyh Aluf Benn Alexey Pushkovadvisoryboard Morton Abramowitz Graham Allison Brian Beedham Conrad Black Robert F. Ellsworth Mar-tin Feldstein Fred C. Ikl Daniel Pipes Helmut Sonnenfeldt Ruth Wedgwood J. Robinson West Dov Zakheim

www.nationalinterest.orgEditor:NikolasK.Gvosdev

1615 L Street, N.W. Suite 1230 Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 467-4884 Fax (202) 467-0006 [email protected]

the NatioNal iNterest

Number 86 Nov./Dec. 2006

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Copyright 2006 by The National Interest, Inc. All rights reserved.


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The National InterestNov./Dec. 2006 55

L

ebanon heLd t tt-ti t wl wkst succssul hizll

kippig pti July 12, 2006,l Isl t pumml t cuty i sus-ti i cmpig limit gusiv. almst ll svs g tcls mus implictis-m hus Spk nwt Gigic vclim t clict ws Wl WIII. but ulik t ws, t wis lss w t cl w t uststtl.

Puits w quick t pclim hiz-ll t wi, ut hizlls lhss nsll ply mitt ttt i ws sttgic mistk. otlysts pit t Isls gti hizlls lg-g missil cpili-tis, ut Islis tk smll cmt itis, kwig ti w pmc ws lw t militily pliticl-ly. L itsl su ily,

tug its lglig mctic gv-mt suviv cm mj plyi t iplmcy tt l t t ig

t clict, militily it ws c tst y lplssly uig t cisis.

n t ptis cm lk-

ig g. T Uit Stts mglkig t cul ictiv i Muslim ys. eup stts ggi typicl -wvig uig t w i v m typicl ickig vw wul wt i pst-cls pc-kpig pti, v tug tis tst lks lik ig l. I Syi,hizlls pts, i tt, ut vty my vtully i t sults

mix lssig.

before We c ssss t -sults t w, it is impttt cl svl pits.

rpts tt I p hizll tttck t ivt ttti m t I-i ucl pgm sm t ls: T isput v t Ii pgms gig ys wit

i sigt, hizll ti tptis i t pst s wll.

Similly, t clim tt tis c-lict ws pxy w iitit y I ttst wt lik t Uit Stts(usig Isl s t st-i) cul t y ppt tt wul igt willig t tk csultis ig-s t ct tt m imptti Ts clcultis t succss-

s tt vius igts i Iq v gist t Uit Stts. I i t t luc w i L

The no-Wi ZoeAn After-Action Report from Lebanonidaiel byma & Steve Simoi

dil bym is t ict t Ct

Pc Scuity Stuis i t emu a.

Wls Scl fig Svic t Gg-

tw Uivsity -sit si

llw t t S Ct Mil est

Plicy t t bkigs Istituti. Stv

Sim is hsi J. Sg Si fllw Mil est Stuis t t Cucil f-

ig rltis.


3/8

The National InterestNov./Dec. 200656

mi tt Wsigt is vullt tists guills.

filly, t sul mistktt hizll su sius lsss.Tug xct igus t cmy, t Isli ds fcs (idf) clim

t v kill ut 500 hizllsmst ti igts. My ts wmi w t lst pusm lssut t sut t Liti,t lst tmpily. ai stiks i-ty swps ply limit utl t lg-g ckts tt wt xp, s wll s lg um lucs. hizlls lt i-stuctu i sut L ws isupt-

, my its cilitis i t biutsuus w z. by t tim hizl-l ws pusig cs-i, wicwis t mlly , its igtsw tpp i x tw t Isli, lck cst, lw igs s lig t, lg idfc i Mjyu, pis t mc upt bk t t st. bt hss nsl-l Mmu Kumti, t sc

i cmm hizlls pliticl m,v tl itviws tt hizll wscmpltly supis y t city Isls sps t t i. nsll, i cssil mmt, clim tti kw t Islis w gigt ct s viltly, wul t v t kippig.

aLThoUGh There is is-

put v wt hizll Isl cm ut , it

is cl tt Lt its ppl its gvmtlst. T Lsgvmt su t ultimt iig-ity y gim: It ws ig. ocgi it is cl t ll ctis i L- tt ti gvmt ct p-tct tm m ig tts stgmstic gups lik hizll. I t

ly 1970s, t imptc t L-s gvmt i t c Is-li-Plstii clss i L ws

mj pcipitt t Ls civilw. Cvic (cctly) tt ti gv-mt cul t ptct tm, ll Ls cmmul ctis g tm giz t tmslvs, spil tt l t civil w. W my s

tu t tis lgic i pstw L. T w ls ut t Mc 14

llic ti-Syi ls w tt C rvluti v scmgist dmscus its Ls llislik hizll i t -stlis tipc t stt. Tis psitiws lwys usy. T ti-Syi s w ivi mgst tmslvs, ty cgiz tt ty cul t gv-

L witut icptig p-Syi ctis, pticully hizll,it t gvmt. o hizllssuccsss is tt it pit t ti-Sy-i vics s p-Isli; t cgs hizlls citics tt hizll pcipi-tt t w tt it i s t Syisst w quickly w ut y cis g s t w wt . P-Sy-i pliticis, lg t siv,

w ml.T is sm p, ut ly sm.

T Ls gvmt i suviv,wil my svs its cmpltcllps. als, Pim Miist Siimg s skill pt, cmigt ky itlcut L wit tittil cmmuity. nvtlss,ty, t Ls gvmts -giig psiti vis--vishizll is

wk. un slutis tt cll is-mig Ls militis lik hizll tus v t m ulillmt.

I ctst, dmscus mg s wi. Sic t cllps t Syi-Isli gtitis i 2000, Juslm simply ig t l-as gimspliticl ms gig t Glhigts t isputs. ev m wism dmscus, t C

rvluti, cmi wit fc, U.S. a pssu, c Syi it u-militig mility witwl m L-


4/8

The No-Win Zone 57

i apil 2005. a uusully tug-mi un ivstigti it t t m Ls Pim Miist rikhii (w Syi gts ply kill)implict t igst cls tSyi gim. bt t m ,

bsis gim ws i c.Tis pictu s cg cmpltly.

My ts isplc m t wl t dmscus, icsig Syis lv-g , s t v, w Ls w y t cllg Syi. Thii ivstigti, wic ps v-ily cpti m L, is w. Ls w cw, tt ml, i ti willigss t

ct dmscus. Syi s mg st ly cil gut hizllsutu g vi t, Isls mi tt it will t vpc wit hizll ulss it s pcwit Syi. Similly, Syi cptiis cssy t pvt hizll mig m, pticully wit gt lg cvtil systms. Tis ull s hizlls ck hizlls

ctll s lg it wit Syi -ig plicy. as Micl d cts,ev sic t 1980s, Syi s plytis gm ig t t sist t i ptmt.1

T situti Syi is t isk. Sul t clict igit, Islmigt ci tt it is m ctiv tpuis hizlls sps t tt wk Ls gvmt. Syi

must ls wy tt hizll, its lg-tim lly pxy, is cmig tmit pt i ti ltisip.T is sig tt hizll is gigt k wit Syi, ut dmscus i tpst s lwys p t kp its px-is pt vull.

Iran IS skig i t lctgly its Ls pxy. I

s lg s hizll s ti-ump t Islmic vluti, viglp ct susti t giz-

ti i its ly ys. a, i ctstt um a stts tt citicizhizll t t st t clict,I cul c gi pit t its m-stl c suppt ti-Islcs.

bcus hizlls ic lctswll I, t clicl gim is liklyt m hizll, lpig it plc( ply upg) t systms ttIsl sty. Tis mig is lmstimpssil t stp, s Syi is likly tcvtly cpt wit tis t Ls pus s titi smugglig mk susti itic-ti cmpig iicult. Isli ls

will ulmit gist tis mig pps luc ig cmm it stp pticully tulig wpssystm m tig L, ut suclimit ts will v t st mgilimpct hizlls t t supply wul s s lctig lck it i unifil (wic my sv).

hizll, cus, s Iissistc t uil m t mtil

lsss it su. ntlss, t igtgtly c hizlls pstigutsi L. Its cpcity t imissils tgts s sut s hit t igt Isls gu icu-si lctii as t sis tSi-Sui ivi. hizll, c gi,sw it is t ly a c tt cst up t Isl militily.

hizll is v stg i L-

itsl. Mst Ls tik tt hiz-ll w t w.2 T lsipsility t put mssiv i m I tus s s s t gus w silccim its sttus s t ly ctivgizti i L, i mk c-tst t t Ls gvmt (

1as qut i J bus, Syi Tus ov Tp

Isugt, The New York Times, fuy 28,

2005, pp. 1.2Mjity Ls liv hizull w

w, The Daily Star,august 26, 2006.


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t Wst), wic s t pvi lit vstt s is t y iigt-ig wt t xt. T pst-stili-tis ps s ic hizlls psi-ti mg its c cstituts s tpty cug, itgity liility,

it still tis t iititiv militily.Yt spit t lgly psitiv sults

m hizlls ic, nsll t ls likly t cutiusut t utu u. T is pptit mg Ls, Si i-clu, t mt vsttigIsli stiks. a lg eup ctt ct ttck witut iskighizlls lg iplmtic psiti is

w tw hizll igts tIsli . hizll, lik vy tcti i L, must ls wtc itsck wit g t t l-as gim iSyi. Is cmmitmt t hizll isuqustil t tis pitT willstill t tims ty t i i its pxy usit Ii itsts, ut i gl Iis stgly cmmitt t t ltisip.Syi, wv, s isticlly

istumtl viw t gizti.f w it svs dmscuss itstsi L gist Isl t kpcls t hizllitsts icy t itil mstic lgitimcy ttbsis gim gis m tis t hizl-l. nvtlss, it is lwys pssiltt dmscus wul sciic hizllsm cti t lt Syisl-itst.

nsll misclcult ut tuup tumps cus Isl vply itst xt tim t cs my tll t sm wy.

PrIMe MInISTer eu ol-mt siz t hizllkippig s wy t m-

stt tt wul tug w Islws tt, ut Isls p swig

lt t gvmt umilit l-ig pliticlly.

a sty umt missil lucs

m Gz, llw y hmss clvicty i t Plstii autity lc-tis, t wy t t ciility ol-mts Cvgc plicy (is tucy-ly mik Ss Svciititiv, wic i ssc cll

witwig m pts t Wst bkw w Jws liv wil uilig upt scuity i u Isl pp t mst ppulus sttlmts it Wst bk). T vulility tolmt gvmt t llwss its g ccut t ssps t hizll pvcti ttail S migt v wv , t lst vi cmmittig is gv-

mts pstig t t igt y gg-ig i lss mssiv tliti. olmt,wv, ws i psiti t i ut smll isgc, spcilly t t killig kippig iitit y Plstiimilitts i Gz lmst t wks -li.

a t mility utcm ws m stll. Isls lsss w csi-l, pticully giv Isls stsil

supiity t wt is still, y cmpis, ply m guill gup. Isl lstv u slis, wit lmst1,000 wu. Isli icils smvcit, mility ls u-stimt hizlls tmiti skill, t wic supisiggiv t my tims hizll ugtIsl t st i skimiss i tpst.

T vys cmplccy t cm-m plms t Mss milityitlligc lt S 5 sty t tmcy Ii C-802 cuis missil.(flw tgtig t xct civilicsultis t Qgitt cmpli-ct t livs pliticis ut vs ct ptis.) hizllsit us ti-m missils t lygist Mkv III tks, ut ls t

sty impvis idf siv psi-tis, ws xtmly ctiv cult cut i t st uti


6/8

The No-Win Zone 59

stilitis. Tis will is qustisut ugt cuts tt piv t idf lg ums t Mkv IV, tk s vily m tt hizlligts pptly i t t t i tm. T ilu t ist t tw i-

visis ply t t Isl t tutst stilitis, t ly ist ipw, will ls vily citiciz,ut tis ws pliticl, t mility, ci-si.

T suc ts plms lymstly i t cus t idf t i-ti, wic upt just t mtst Isls 2000 witwl m L-. Isl will v t lc ts

scuity piitis , i t pcss,ivt sucs m scil svics tt mility. I cuty w pliticlclitis m t sis ugtyws, tis will t t cmig p-liticl vltility.

Wt is t t Kim t tw? as pty witut raison dtre cismtic l, Kims pspcts w ly imiisig. as pty

pciv t v squ pp-tuity t ly wst t hizll, tt L, its s suvivig lctl cllg cliig. Tpmis cvgc, tt witw-ig m tity will uc t um- ttcks, is w wily qusti. a sttig t L l ds Miist ami Ptz tys idf ugt cuttig tt pc

is ccssi t t miisty will t ug t stv lctis witi sixt i mts. a suscitt Liku willclim tt Kims plicy p-mptivcpitulti ct t tst tt t p-tys lsip il t pss. hig lysi Kim, lik fig Miist TzipiLivi, will ivit ck t Liku wit pmis plc t lctl list.big su vsl, Kim will

g t t plls s spt c, Isliplitics my vt t pliz p-lyzstatus quo ante. Liku is ly t

m pty mst Islis, ut y -ult it my mg t l t cuty.Islis will t t ly s t py ig pic t L w; Plsti-is will s t pi, pps ys,i lss cmpmisig Isli gvmt

tks pw.U.S. plicy i t gi ls su

sius stck. T bus amiist-ti st y Isl s mtt pi-cipl: Isl ujustly ttck ytists, it igt t sp. Mv, L ws t Wstft mmtus stuggl witIslmic xtmism; tis ws pptu-ity llck. Wsigt tus mv

slwly csi sluti, pigtt Isl wul sms hizll.

T bus amiisttis pici-pls w igt, ut ti implmt-ti ut t U.S. Isli itstsi t gi. My as liv ttIsls ttck hizll ws ipt Wsigts st. T su-ig t Ls ws s s sm-tig c (, ws, cug)

y Wsigt. dlys i gttig cs-i cmpu t impssi tt tUit Stts c littl ut t wll-ig iy Muslimsspcil-ly t wtcig gpic imgs tts cmtts m Islimility cmpig.

Tis pcpti pv pticullytulig mt U.S. llis i tMil est. Swig g pulic

pliticl cug ty usully lck, ulpps y wis ut Si ss-tivss, egypt, Sui ai Jiitilly citiciz hizll, implicitlysig Isls cmpig. but s tvilc w t suig tLs ics, ts gvmts ppul citicism ck wym Wsigt tws t i-cls. Ti willigss t y t a

stt tk p-U.S. stc tissus is likly t imiis. futu U.S.ts t lly a gim suppt


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U.S. iititivs i Iq t stt tstll pc pcss will tt muc.

The CLaSh ls l eupt -gg i t Mil

est. T umiti c-tstp tt hizll Isl vis-it L imt t euppss; t sultig pulic utg cluctt upp eup gv-mts t cl tt tis ws t u eup. eup sp tt tit i w Jcqus Ps m similclti i 1992 t eu ws u-milit y t Ssut tis is it

pis. Tis tim t ws amicpw i t wigs t mp t teup c, it cul ly cmi t t lligts g t csi.

T Itlis w t ist t sizl um tps, ut t fc,w lst 58 pckps i biut i1983 t hizll ( -simultushizll ttck kill 241 U.S. Mis

w w pt t sm missi), wm tict. f Cic is mili-ty viss, t c siz uls ggmt stipult yunscr 1701wul put t my slis i t muc xps ustl situti.oc gi, pckps wul tt mcy lcl wig ctis. Tpssu t ct cisivly ctullyi Mil est cisis, wv, pv

isistil. Cic vs imsl t fc ics ti tp c-ctti y ct t, icluig Lclc tk cmpy 155mmtilly uit. Tis i tu sk t G-ms ut islti, sultig i agl Mkls cisi t s Gmy tptl t Ls cst.

Wt t t vll unifil-2tp lvl cs t lvl visg y

t Scuity Cucil, eup gv-mts will v ssum scuity sp-siility situti v wic ty

v littl ctl. hizll igts -mi i sut L t tw Syi L is p t tts wps t hizll t -plis its plt ivtis. f vtw cs t ltst igtig,

hizll pv l t sist Isl v psp, tiks unifil will m skill m ggssivt t Islis w. T giztils tis sm lg-g missils itc i v t s unifil tpsit t Isl. Isl s c-spig cpcity t stik t its my. T likli w igtig,t, is ig. dspit ucmmly

tug uls ggmt, t s tt cpitls will t giv cmms t gu utity t p i wty sul. T s ly sligtlysmll tt pick uit will i wit sult. eit wy, its pckpigutility will quickly t ply-mt will s i eup s mssivliility. I eup ct yt put itt ctgy ls, it c ily l-

l s ut t, swigig i t z.

deTerMInInG The tu wis t igtig -tw Isl hizll

my tk ys, s t lsss cw,swllw igst y ll t ptis. Yt wil t juy is ut, sm itimcclusis pppit Isl, tUit Stts t pws ct-

ig stg tist mvmts.o vius lss ccs t -

g pw vcuums. a mj tiump t bus amiistti ws t ustSyi m L; mj ilu wst put tig i its plc. W tUit Stts ccs ppssiv ccu-pis lik Syi lps tppl utlgims, it must v pl t uil up w gvmt i its plc. I L,

i Iq t Plstii titis,t stucti gim s l tits plcmt y icls.


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The No-Win Zone 61

a sc lss is tt pwulstts, v i ty gus, ctsimply ig. Syi, I tgil pws v sp clws. Tyc ck tist mvmts, sw u-st i igig cutis, sti up t

stt i t Muslim wl t-wis mk li iicult U.S. llis.Simply igig ts stts is t p-ti. I, iplmcy is ls cssyi w t cc puis tm mctivly.

filly, L pv t imti sttgy w igt-ig tist guill gups. Islsm litly ucc ut w

its mility ptis w ig p-ty. T isstus stik Qis xmpl, ut m ly timgs t suig t Lsppl w t ctivly cut y cct Isli mssg tt plcspsiility hizll. as sult,t supisig sympty Isl iitillyciv m eup svl astts issipt v tim.

Wt mis ucl is wt- Isls ultig us ipw,cmi wit its willigss t ilictcivili csultis, cul st t cu-tys tc gist ttcks t iL i t gi. Tis ws gm cick i wic Isl tw itsstig wl ut t wiw t stt ws pp t itv hizlls l.

but t lg-tm lsss t-c will vily gui y pcptis mispcptis. aly Plstiis lig tt stlwt s cvquis Isl, cvitly igig ttIsls itlligc gist t Plsti-is is supi t gist hizll tt t Plstii gups plsw ti Ls s w itcms t tcticl skill. hizll is tyig

t cvic itsl its llws tt itsgm ws wt t cl. f w itsls pp s ut ti lsss,ut t a wl s wy tuigmgil victis v limit tsit illit tiumps.

Similly, Isl is w cusig t gtiv. Islis sm t gttt hizll i t ticipt tisigt tus my wgly cclu tthizll ct t, w tisty t lst 15 ys t lst sug-gsts tt hizll is igly ssitivt gil citis t t scl y Isli sps. fm t Isli witwl m sut L i 2000

util tis w, hizll lgly cm-pli wit t tcit uls t itms w it cul pvk Isl.Its ictis w sig t uist ptys putti s t Ls svigty, t lp t Pls-tiis wg ti w stuggl, tumilit Isl, witut cig ms-siv sps. T cmmts nsl-l t si hizll ls

iict tt ty tugt t kip-pig pti ll it tis ctgy pvcti. Wt ts tcit uls ggmt still i pti -mis ucl, s it t sis mycclu tt t ltst u igtig tm ilvt.

T L w, i t , swtt smtims i t Mil est, t g ptis. Isls us c

gist hizll ws u t ic-clusiv giv hizlls ility simply tsuviv t slugt t tsm situti t gu it sti-ig ppg victy. Yt, t wplyt pvcti wul ly ivit -w ttcks. T cus Mil est- plitics w is tt ts -wi situ-tis icsigly t m tt t xcpti.n

cfr simon byman

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